i want to call out financials, you had some of the banks move dramatically higher because there's been a financials conference. mike, thank you. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> all rready? we were having fun. >> there's always tomorrow. >> we'll be back tomorrow, okay, so "fast money" begins right now. live with from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. 1,200 bucks. the starting price of the highest new end iphone. will customers pay up, or will a computing from china put a damper on demand? plus, crude reality. rising owl prices expected to cause an uptick in inflation. will this give the fed pause in pausing? and what's it all mean for the consumer? and later, oracle falls from cloud nine. regional banks get a bump, and why investors are sneezing at the makers of sudafed and d dayquil.

our special guest for the hour, rebecca patterson, former bridgewater chief strategist. welcome, rebecca. and we start off with the countdown to tomorrow's big inflation print. economists expecting consumer prices rose in august. a faster clip than in july. the data coming as oil prices hit ten-month highs. wti closing in on 90 bucks a barrel, the highest it has been since last november. crude oil now up 40% from its may lowest. so, how is the fed dissecting these numbers and could it put an end to consumer confidence? rebecca, you brought this up, this could actually cause cpi to look higher. >> right, so, if consensus is close to reality, tomorrow we're getting the core prices continuing to decelerate. i think the fed will take comfort in that, even though core at 4.3% is event close to the fed's target, so, i think a september pause, which is fully priced in, is the most likely outcome. i think the bigger deal is what's going on with energy and

commodities. the fed tries to look through it, but at the same time, they don't ignore it. what we saw in the new york's fed consumer expectation survey released today was that inflation expectations, commodity price expectations, both are going up. at the same time, people's expectations for jobs are going down. so, you're getting a consumer that gets very nervous, and that could affect how much the fed can act, what they should do. so, i do think they are going to be watching oil, not overreacting to any other short-term blip, but it's going to be on their radar over the coming months. >> i think they -- listen, i can't speak for them, i think they realize they're in a bit of a pickle here. and we said for months that in the fall, and i think we're pretty much, september's in the fall, we're going to see a reacceleration of inflation. and numbers you put out back that up. in terms of energy, tim can speak to this, you stay with the space. it's working. oih is now at a five-year high. valero is within a whisper of an all-time high. all these energy names,

valuations are reasonable despite the recent runups and i think people are underestimating, i don't know, sort of the runway and sort of the -- the -- i guess sort of -- the green lights of this entire space seems to have in front of them. >> so, there's two ways to trade and that is, from the prisom of the fed, and then investors in terms of energy equity. >> first, just talk about the market, and the prism of investors around the fed, which is, i think we've gotten a lot of news out of better and more benign inflation prints. i think the market's run out of gas on that. if you look at where real rates are around 2%, that back to valuations, this is where the equity multiple really starts to hit the road. and in other words, rubber hits the road, and i think we are probably two to three turns on the multiple. when we hear opec is starting to increase supply, that's very bullish for oil, and if you look at where inventories are right now overall, i don't think inventories get a lot better in the near term. so, i mentioned this two days

ago, some of the data is that inventories are back at the lows of 2000. i think oil stays here. i think oil equities are a very different story. they are an investment, not a trade, and i've said that for a long time, just because i think that oil companies are run differently. so, i think you love this trade, 4.6% of the s&p, i think that index is going higher. and i think it's a place for people to hide out. >> when you talk about the consumer, though, and we talk about inflation, i think that headline from walmart last week was really interesting, if you want to put wage -- >> all-time highs in walmart today. >> yeah, but interesting, but pendulum seems to have shift. >> they're going to pay more. >> yes, i mean, so, if -- we have energy going back up, right? and we have wage inflation that might have topped out, that's some of the readings we have, to the point, walmart, one of the larmest employers in our country, feels they can cut starting wages, and we know that that sliver of a consumer that is going to work at a walmart, energy prices moving up the way they have is probably not a good scenario for them, and we think about the consumer here, so, we

could be on the precipice of a bit of a shift. we've been waiting for this consumer to weaken, this might be the moment. >> it feels we're sort of in this goldilocks period, it hasn't fully hit the consumer walmart's ceo just today was talking about how the consumer is holding up better than had been expected, and this contrasts to sort of the conservative approach -- so, we're sort of here, the consumer is still employed, may be feeling worse, may be starting to pay more at the pump and for all those, you know, energy-related expenses, but they've still got money at this moment in time. >> exactly. there's the question -- the reality we have today, you know, 3.5% gdp growth probably in the third quarter, something around that, which is win credibly robust versus sentiment that's deteriorating, businesses getting more cautious, we saw that in the small business survey this morning. consumers that are getting more nervous. the question is, when did we go to that tipping point? when do they start pulling back?

commodities are a big, big deal. food and energy plays an outsized role, especially for the lower income consumer. those prices stay at these levels or rise further. they're going to start losing that real purchasing power, that real wage gains that have helped earnings so much this year. >> and again, back to those, you know, household disposable income as a percentage of their monthly debt services, dan's bringing it up -- i think the point on walmart should not be underestimated. we talked about this with suppliers, they dictate prices. when walmart started raising minimum wage, everybody did. it's a great thing for our country, it's a great thing for society, and i hope it doesn't reserve itself. that's a sign that i bet they're not the only one, and that's going to help the fed and make it a lot harder on the consumer. >> as tim just said, walmart making aboun all-time high, tar, multi-year low, effectively. dollar gen.

the by furifurcation, i hate th word, but it's true. people are trading down from the dollar gens and the dollar trees and the five belows of the world doesn't paint a particularly rosy picture. and we've said this a thousand times. the u.s. consumers will spend. never underestimate their want to spend until they get scared. and what scares them is something happens in the stock market. >> it's interesting, also, that notion that consumers will spend on their pets. we talked about this. two weeks ago, chewy, it had that really bad report and that bad guidance and, you know, i was probably maybe a little casual about it when it gapped down, it was down 15% or something like that, it was trading very near 52-week lows, i was like, probably okay. it's not okay. the thing has barely seen an uptick. it's approaching it's all-time lows. >> what is your cat's name? >> tigger. >> is tigger getting cut-back? >> the head line today, people are trading down for their pets. that was the thing that was supposed to be recession-proof. that's what's starting to happen, before we have the

recession. there's a lot of stuff that we're talking about that are happening before we had this recession that get pushed out. >> which is normal. if we look back at history, the actual turn in the economy happens very, very fast, you know? the rise in unemployment rate, the rise in jobless claims, it's good until it's not. and so, what we're seeing now are all these data pointing suggesting we need to get ready for that turn. it's possible we avoid it and we have goldilocks, but goldilocks is priced in. >> wow, we're so cautious here tonight. how do you -- how do you trade, though, today, for that turn, which may happen on a dime at some point in the future? >> well, we've been waiting for that on the dime for so long. >> yeah. >> and we're seeing bifur ration. we're going to have a chat later about maybe the impact on the -- some of the food companies and what not in the more broad space around the weight loss drugs, but i look at staples, which have underperformed the s&p by 15%, and that's over the last 6 to 9 months. i look at names like hershey's,

general mills. you've already seen the kind of a reaction in the consumer, but we've also seen, i think the more important part of this is, companies that have pricing power that have margin power. higher interest rates, a world wher wages are higher, that's the story. and i think when people are spending more money on their pelts for fresh food than they are for putting a steak on the table, the world is upside down. but -- i'm going to get, you know, thrown under the bus on twitter now, because there's a lot of happy pet people out there. >> the animal lovers out there. but when the choice comes down to it, you choose your family over your -- >> let's hope so. >> i'm going -- >> i've seen strange stuff. >> people on the radio -- it's not guy saying it, it's tim. direct it at tim, the pet hate. i go home and the first question is, did the dogs eat. nobody cares about me. >> you hardly eat at all. >> good point by you. you stay with the energy space. it's working. this walmart outperformance will continue. the underperformance of target, dollar gen, will continue.

these trades will continue to work, i think, over the next couple of weeks. >> if oil prices go lower -- >> i don't think they are. >> but -- let's say things go pear shaped, however you want to characterize it, the economy softens, we should see less of a demand for oil. >> that's fair. so, we price -- think about what we've endured over the last couple of months. china slowdown, we talk about it, seemingly every day. oil doesn't seem to care. it's clear that things are slowing down in europe. market doesn't seem to care. things seemingly slowing down a bit here. oil doesn't seem to care. dollar's been going higher. oil doesn't seem to care. so, right now, the energy market, the commodity market is telling you something. >> this might surprise you, i mean, i think microsoft and apple selling off 10% from their highs earlier this summer, i think that's going to be a great setup. the excitement around the fundamentals got ahead of themselves when they reported and guided, i think investors acted fairly rationally, after a very irrational period on trillions of dollars of market

cap in stocks related to a.i., and i think that if that continues to come unknown before the market comes undone, before we have a recession, those names whether end up, if they're down 20%, 25%, from the highs, end up being defensive again for all the reasons that people love them starting off this year when the fear factor was still very high, before we knew we were in a rip roaring bull market. >> i would agree with that point, and going back to guy and energy, that the only thing you didn't mention there was supply, and it does feel like the saudis in particular want to keep a floor under the oil price, so, even if demand were to take a step lower in the coming 12 months, there's only so much downside that i think the major opec producers are going to allow, because they need it for fiscal reasons to be able to afford the projects under way in those countries. >> i agree. and again, when they start to let out some more of that supply, it's bullish. it's not bearish. it's not a case where you see prices pull back. so, we don't, you know, as someone that's long energy, i don't want to see oil get to 110, 120.

that's not necessarily good for oil equities. but when i look back at the ofs, oil field services are now starting to -- first of all, look at xle, look at exxon, which is almost a four bagger from december of 2020. and i think some of those integrated names have run not as far as they can go, but i look at oil field services and i say, schlumberger is getting prices power. they have economies of scale. they've used technology to be a lot more efficient and if you look at their pricing power, you're starting to see the drillers have a lot more pricing power and people are drilling for more oil. so -- look at the chart. it's not a linear relationship that you should be investing on. there's nothing fundm mamental about saying it. except for the fact that, their earnings power is growing, and some of the numbers make sense when you look at the charts. coming up, all the details out of the iphone 15 launch. the chinese competitor that could be the real barrier to growth for apple. that is next. and it may still be technically summer, but our next

guest already is predicting a harsh winter for the office space. why you may want to layer up if you are investing in commercial real estate. "fast money" is back in two. i've spent centuries evolving with the world. that's the nature of being the economy. observing investors choose assets to balance risk and reward. with one element securing portfolios, time after time. gold. agile and liquid. a proven protector. an ever-evolving enabler of bold decisions. an asset more relevant than ever before. gold. your strategic advantage. ♪♪ we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story.

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welcome back to "fast

money." apple revealing its iphone 15 today, just days after huawei announced its mate 60. how do the two stack up against each other and could the chinese offering really take a bite out of the iphone? steve kovach has the tale of the tape. we want to hear about the new developments and how it stacks up, steve. >> yeah, melissa, so, let's talk about today, what apple announced with these four new iphones. just as we expected, four models of the iphone 15, two of the regular models, that plus model with the larger screen, and then the pro models and the higher end. that's where apple puts its most advanced chips and best cameras. those are the 15 pro and 15 pro max. it's the 15 pro max that is probably the most interesting. it got $100 price increase over last year's model, apple putting more technology in that than even the regular iphone 15 pro, the smaller version. better zoom on the camera, and also double the storage of what the same model had last year. but look, you mentioned that mate 60, and we've been talking about china over the last week

and a half or so and this story with apple about the new competitor coming back with the new huawei phones, and this potential ban on government use of iphones. based on what we've seen, reports out of china, the huawei phone, you know, it sounds like it's pretty capable, it looks a lot like the iphone, in fact, and it operates like the iphone, but it is not 5g. now, remember, huawei kind of went dark in the smartphone space for a couple years there, because of silicon restrictions of what they could bring into china to put this phone together. so, while they're bragging that it might have 5g-like speeds, it's not technically a 5g phone. this is a test for them. do chinese customer goes for the homegrown option or the new iphones? apple needs this to be a hit. they've not had top line growth in three consecutive quarters, likely a fourth consecutive. comparisons are going to get easier in the holiday quarter coming up, but competition is

coming back in china, melissa. >> steve, thank you. steve kovach. and dan, you mentioned this before, steve said that huawei sort of went dark when it was limited from accessing silicone, but actually gained market share, it doubled the market share. >> yeah. >> despite that. >> and we also have been talking about this since the advanced chip bans came in late, you know, last year or something like that, that, you know, this forces the chinese chip makers to get better at what they do. if they don't think this is going to get better. we're talking about a phone right here, and huawei is a vertically ente grated company also. they're going to get better at all of it, especially if they see a tougher road in access to our technology. that doesn't make apple's life easier, right in the environment that they're playing in. now, apple has done very well in china. they've gained a lot of market share. some data will show you the number two or three from where they were five, you know, in 2019, when -- you remember 2019, they were having a really tough time with china.

the first disappointing, you know, they preannounced they had in a very long time. my point is, there's nothing here in these phones in this hardware, that says they're going to do better in china, and the consumer issues they're going to have there, they're not going to be in the quarter or anything like this. this expected earnings and sales growth, it doesn't make a lot of sense, when you think about china's growth at 20% of their total sale is probably -- doesn't get better in the next couple quarters. >> that's what jpmorgan said, that the mate 60 is going to halt the gains in apple market share in china. >> this thing's been flying off the shelves, and they want to push this in china, and they're going to. and it's technologically, it's impressive. it's not a 5g phone, but they have given the same features, the speed in terms of processing data. and that's what it comes down to. i realize that investors wanted to hear about the $100 price raise. that's important. the asps have been an important part of the apple revenue story. shipments are up 15%, revenues

are up 45% since 2019. i get that. at some point, the conversation we just had last block applies to apple. and i think it really does, and i also think that the phones are so good, and that this camera, look, i just got the 14 two weeks ago, poor timing, i had no choice, but you know, my phone -- my camera's fine. i mean -- i don't -- guy, is my camera fine? >> of course it's fine. let me tell you something. >> what? >> you always have a choice. two things -- basically -- everything is a choice except for two things. >> okay. >> death, which -- >> and taxes. >> and taxes. otherwise, everything else is a choice. you could have waited, it wasn't going to kill you, number one. number two, if your happiness is predicated and how many megapixels this apple phone has and you wait online at these events, you're living life the wrong way. bring on the hatred. in terms of the stock -- >> folks listening to this on radio, that's guy. >> tim was the pets, guy is the

apple. very important that we hold here, but this china salvo, that's not going to be the last one. government workers first, and then -- you said it last night, shadow ban for -- and it's not a positive thing. when you tack on valuation, it doesn't paint a rosy picture. >> yeah, a lot of the geopolitical risk is probably in the price at this point, but i agree, it's not going to get better. i mean, we had the house committee on china whatever, how we compete and contain, et cetera, doing a new york tour this week, and they you were on your air this morning, tcouncil of foreign relations yesterday. that is one of the few areas of bipartisan agreement in this country, that the u.s. needs to prevent china from getting a technological edge. so, china is going to push back, of course they are, and apple is one very powerful way to do that. >> right. >> so, for them to try to limit how many people in china can use an apple phone or device, it wouldn't surprise me if that becomes reality, unfortunately. this is part of the bigger

picture picture, and you have to watch what happens in washington. the noise is going to get louder, not quieter. >> definitely. for more, let's bring in gene munster, the managing partner at deepwater asset management. gene, great to have you with us. given what you saw today in terms of features and pricing with the iphone 15, it s the stock fairly priced, overpriced? what is your assessment? >> i'm sorry to report, dan, i think the stock goes higher and the biggest reason is that when apple showed today was the substance behind the story turning to return to growth. and i think steve set up segment mentioned it correctly, can apple return to growth? the growth relative to the multiple, it is a similar topic to, is tesla a car company or is it a tech company? in this case, is apple a consumer device company or is it a tech company? i think it is both, but the

consumer device attributes, we saw them on stage today, and i think they garner a higher multiple, more like a coke, a proctor gamble, we've talked a lot about that, so, melissa, i think the most important piece today, there was enough substance in this phone to drive these -- this large 400 million upgrades, a pool of 400 million upgrades. and i think we're going to see apple return to growth, and i expect the stock to move higher as that plays out. >> so, gene, it's dan. and again, i appreciate all that. the stock from its lows in january gained a trillion dollars in market cap, while it was basically quarter over quarter, you know, not growing, right? so, we can say that whatever the rosy outlook is, it's been discounted in the stock price for the better part of this year. does this make sense? so, let's just say that china has been really good for them over the last couple of years. won't that be something that should maybe the stock should be put in the penalty box for a

little bit? and when i'm talking about penalty box, i'm talking another 10% down to 160, and take a few turns off this thing. and it seems a lot more reasonable, given the unknowns that we have about the story and the growth prospects going forward. especially when you consider how incremental -- i know you are geeked up about spatial computing and all that, but that's a back half 2024, 2025 thing. >> so, this could have a 10% pull-back, and i think that can be consistent with the stock going higher into next year. this stock has proven to have those kind of pull-backs, and i think it's appropriate the conversation to talk about c china. i think the china conversation also needs to include the india conversation. there are equal number of p people, the gdp per capita in inya is a lot less than china, 5 1/2 times less, so, that needs to be factored in, but that's something that's going to become a bigger part, that will be an offset to china. i think apple is getting close to the top of china as a percentage of the revenue.

maybe it gets to 22, but we're going to need to start to see india come on, and at the end of the day, what all this comes down to, we talk about the geopolitical, can apple make products that get people excited? and i just want to mention one feature here that was not anticipated, our andrew murphy from deepwater expected this to come out, but they added spatial camera to the pro model for photos and video. spatial video is a killer app when it comes to vision pro and it is the biggest upgrade to a camera. and guy, i hear you when you say that sad that people get so excited about cameras, they a are -- this is a big deal, it's going to change how people recall memories. sounds crazy, once you experience, you'll know what i'm talking about. and that is ultimately what matters. matters more to me on this apple investment case, can they continue to innovate, and they are doing that. >> the crazy thing, guy was making all these quizzical faces when he said, "i hear you guy,"

it was almost like you had a spy cam here in the studio. the one last question i want to ask you, gene, what data point about the consumer will get you to rethink the assumptions you have about people buying the phone? what will it take for you to say, you know what? maybe consumers are paying too much for oil, because it's up 40% since may, maybe consumers are pulling back on, you know, given what we're hearing from restoration hardware and other, chewy and other retailers. maybe they're spending 1,000 bucks on weight loss drugs every month and not going to way the iphone. what data point makes you pause? >> well, there could be a pause in sales. and i think all these data points you talked about can cause iphone to miss in a quarter. that can -- i think we're going to see return to growth. there can be a miss in the next year for all the things you talk about. but i foiphone has been gaining share. in south korea, the home of samsung, they have gained market share. and dan talked about the market share gains in china -- that to

me is what's most important. are they gaining share? and when you buy one apple device, you fall in love, you get another one. and i think that -- so, i don't want to be dismissive of the negative data points. it can cause the 10% stepdown that dan was talking about in the stock, but what's most important is, their devices are becoming more indispensable for people and that's evidenced in market share. >> gene, thank you. gene munster, deepwater. >> thank you. >> so, what's the right valuation here? >> i don't think it's that much different. gene's got a long-term view of the stock that it's going higher, he's going to be right. he said from here, you could see a 10% move, which i can do that math, gets you to 160, which is level that dan talked about, and you go back over the last five, six years, we said this 100 times, it's not like the stock goes from lower left to upper right, it does pull back over time. and given everything we've talked about, this is a perfect time for that to happen. >> if the consumer weakens, is

this defensive, rebecca? >> i think that's the question i've been sitting here playing with in my mind listening to the conversation. if we have a slower consumer going into 2024, is this a defensive stock, because of organic growth over the long-term or is this a consumer stock? and it may end up being in the middle. but i do think that the track record over the last decade of tech has colored people's view on how much tech to have in an allocation, so, it's hard for me to see people going severely underweight this sector, even with that consumer element, so, i could see a pull-back, but i think it would be limited. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. feeling congested? you may want to think twice about which medicine you're grabbing off the shelf. the drugs that just don't work, and the impact on the companies behind them, next. plus, winter is coming for office real estate. at least that's the forecast from our next guest. how you should navigate the chill ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site

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i. welcome back to "fast money." the dow snapping a three-day winning streak. the s&p down half a percent and tech stocks under pressure. the nasdaq falling more than 1%. shares of health care names like kenvue and p&g down today. an fda advisory panel finding a common ingredient in over the counter cold medicines doesn't work. the ingredient has been used for nearly a century and found in versions of dayquil and more. the finding could pave the way for dozens of these medicines to be removed from the shelves.

we did see the reaction in those shelves. why are you laughing? >> i had a roommate in college, he knows who he is, who could come up to me, i'm robo-ing. r >> surprisingly, i'm with tim on this one. and proctor & gamble, just in terms of valuation, doesn't make a lot of sense to me. single digit eps growth, trades at 27 timesish next year's numbers. it's crazy. this obviously doesn't help. but i'll say this. can i do a little more you know? >> is this concerning vicks? is that -- is that what you're going to suggest? >> yes. i can't believe -- >> i'm still in your head. >> if you are feeling under the weather, slather some vicks on. >> it's very effective. it really is. >> slather and vicks. >> my mother is at home right now -- >> anyway. the more you know. >> where are we going here? >> to break. coming up, a bank bounce.

regionals bouncing, but what is behind this move, and are any of the moves a buy yet? and it wasn't just banks that got beat up in the wake of the svb collapse. commercial real estate took a hit, and our next guest sees a big chill coming. that's when "fast money" returns.partneri because this game is for everyone. ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™.

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welcome back to "fast money." regional banks rebounding today. the kre reracing yesterday's lo losses. the heads of global regional banks meet at the global financials conference to discuss the future of the industry. do these look any different than they did yesterday, guy? >> i don't know what happened today. i was trying to figure out why banks were rallying the way they were. maybe some rotation out of tech, into potentially energy and banks, but no news that i saw, and banks were no better today than they were yesterday and i still think tbanks were challenged. office space stocks rallying in the months after the regional bank crisis, but a major chill may be in the air. jonathan litt has been shorting this group. jonathan, great to have you back. >> thank you. >> you know, you thought after labor day, there would be a push of back to office.

>> no data is confirming that. you see it in the headlines, but we just got the castle data from last week, we look at the cell phone data, there's no evidence we have more people back in the office. >> okay. so, before you came to us with a short on alexandria realty, a.r.e. are you still short that name and what are you seeing there? you are citing the cell phone day that that you were tracking within the buildings and how long people were actually there. >> right, and it's going to be very challenged for a long time. the office lab space. and we don't -- we don't see it changing any time soon. in fact, the whole office space is going to be challenging. but for them in particular, they are an expensive stock, they have very little leasing activity. they have a lot of space they're trying to get let, and they're overvalued. >> are there any new shorts you've put on? has anything gotten to the point where it looks worse? maybe they have debt repayments due with a closer deadline versus five months ago? >> when we were here last, it was pretty washed out. we said there wasn't much market cap left in the space.

alexandria's really the best one today. a lot of the stocks have run and rallied off the bottom, but we think they're going to retest some of the lows in the coming months. >> just sub-sector, though, in terms of the commercial corners of the place. look at the insurance world, think about what's going on there, some of the places where liabilities and the dynamics in the core business are changing so much, is that showing anything different? >> what, in the office space? >> yes. >> well, look -- we talked about return to office. it's not about return to office anymore. it's about financing. we have 400 billion coming due over the next several years. we cited newmark, says they're 80% ltv. you can't get 80% ltv loans. so, there's going to be a cold winter for office, as we get through this refinancing wave. stocks are trading at a ten cap rate, that might look cheap by the time this is done. and they might -- sorry, that might look expensive, they might get cheaper. >> how big a deal is the fed's

path? we have 100 basis points of easing priced in the markets for next year. if we don't get that, if we get half of that, of all the factors that matter here, with all that debt coming due that needs to be refinanced, how big a role does the fed play? or is it not a big deal? >> for the fed to solve the problem, rates would have to go back to where we, you know, where they started raising. because you have work from home phenomenon coupled with the high ltvs, and i just don't see an easy way out. >> when we say $400 billion in loans due from now until year end 2025, how does that play out? how do you dissect that data? are there sectors that are vulnerable? areas, locations, city? >> that's just office. san francisco is going to be very difficult. new york is going to be difficult. people are going to give the kkey s back. half of that is with banks. the other is with debt funds. insurance companies. some of those have written it down. some need to write it down.

that won't impact the banking industry, 200 billion that will. and i think that's going to be digestible, that's not going to go to zero, that will go down some amount. >> we talked -- we didn't talk, cliff from jamie dimon talking about how banks were not investable in his opinion. i'm not asking you to pick stocks, but what do you think of the banking sector, looking at your lens? >> i'm not really a pro. >> you watch it. >> i do watch it. and i just don't know the balance sheets well enough to talk about which banks might be at risk. i read the papers and see what people are speculating on, but i'm going to stay in my wheelhouse. but there's a lot of press on office and how bad real estate's going to be and they just paint it with a broad brush. if you are looking for distressed real estate, which investors are, the best place is in the public markets. private equity firms that i talk to, they can't find distressed real estate. if you want to own single family for rent, warehouses, senior housing, you can get it on sale in the public market, so -- it's

important to distinguish between office, which is going to be very challenged, and other sectors that are in really good shape and are very investable. we had two large m&a transactions three weeks ago in the reit space. huge premiums. that's going to continue. capital comes back, they have money to put out and they're going to take these companies products. >> highest long? >> it would be a senior housing reit, trades at about a 6 1/2 cap, closest competitor is 4 1/2. it's a bit broken right now. we are looking to get some change done at the board level, and we think if they can make better decisions on capitoal allocation, the stock should be a home run. the senior housing business is probably the strongest real estate sector today with the elderly moving into these facilities. >> jonathan, great to see you. thank you for coming by. >> thank you.

>> kre is the short. jonathan knows this. january '07, it topped out. so, we're at huge support levels here. through that 108 level, things get dicey. i think they report in the middle of october. coming up. oracle shares suffering their worst day in 21 years after a rough earnings print. what options trader see in the company's future. plus, the clock is ticking as union leaders and auto manufacturers try to avoid a work stoppage. will they strike a deal or strike out? we'll take you inside the latest developments. more "fast money" right after this. the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

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welcome back to "fast money." carnage in the cloud. oracle shares falling more than 13% today. their worst day since 2002, after last night's disappointing earnings numbers. the company missing revenue iss guidance for the coming quarter. other companiesdragged in the space. should we extrapolate, do you think, dan? >> i think we've been talking about the deceleration, some of these companies in the cloud, the hyper scalers, this excitement around, you know, a.i., and what that means for demand. oracle was telling a good story, as the number four or five player in the space. when you see the deceleration they gave, and we're talking

about it as it came last night, relative to expectations, relative to where the stock was, relative to valuation, does it deserve to be down 14%, i can't tell you, but i don't think it deserved to be up 55% on the year heading into the print, so, to me, i think there's probably a level that it makes sense for this one, because again, i think we pulled forward a lot of excitement about these trends. they're going to be around for awhile here people, so, you don't have to buy on the first day down. >> two upgraemdupgrades in the leading up to this print. >> if a name with a valuation that is reasonable, basically a market multiple, with visibility, 77% of the revenue now, high ly visible recurring revenue, if that can go 13.5% lower off a print like this, what does it mean for valuations like salesforce and some of the other names who traded two times, three times turns? if a stock like this can get taken out to the wood shed, a lot of other stocks can, as well. >> i just think that the expectations ran too far ahead of what's a seasonally tough quarter for them, and double-digit eps, first of all,

the transformation at oracle, how they've gotten here, was rewarded in the stock. it was almost 100% move on a 12-month, so -- i kind of poo-pooed it last night. i didn't think it was going to react like this today. i think this is something you're picking up on weakness, and there's probably a little more weakness. >> excuse me. options traders foresee losses in oracle's future. mike? >> yeah, this was one of the top five busiest single stock options that we saw today. the stock moved significantly more than about the $7.50 that the options market implied it would move. the busiest contract today were the sep 110 puts that expire at the end of this week. 36,000 of those traded for $1.34 or so, though most of those traded before 2:00 p.m., the stock actually did trade lower into the chose, so, those closed around $1.75 or so. buyers of those betting that this weakness could persist through the end of the week. >> thank you, mike. for more options action, be sure to tune into the full show,

friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up. detroit automakers scrambling to avoid a strike ahead of thursday night contract expiration. can the big three and the uaw see eye to sigh? and coming up on "mad money," jim is trading with marc benioff, ceo of salesforce. that's top of the hour on "mad money." more "fast money" in two. thee a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠.

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this season, eligible xfinity rewards members can get up to $100 off nfl sunday ticket from youtube. sign up for xfinity rewards now. welcome back to "fast money." less than three days remaining until contracts between the uaw and big three detroit automakers expire. and despite some movement on both sides, threat of a strike still looms large. ful low lebeau has the latest. >> there is a flurry of activity going on. here's the latest on where talks stand, a little over 48 hours until their expiration at is11: thursday night. there are active talks taking place. what i mean by that is, there are meetings, multiple meetings that are happening between the bargaining committees between ford, gm, and stellantis and the united auto workers. it's not as though they're exchanging one proposal and there's another proposal several hours later. they're in active talks with

each other. the biggest movement is going to happen with wages. we're already seeing that with the uaw coming off their 40% demand, coming down into the mid 30%. most people i talk with think that we're ultimately going to see an agreement somewhere between 20% and 25% in terms of the percentage raise that is ultimately agreed upon between the uaw and the auto workers, but we'll get more details tomorrow night from the president of the uaw, shawn fain, when he holds another one of his facebook live sessions, that's going to take place at 5:00 p.m. tomorrow night. as you look at how many workers are under a uaw contract, for ford, gm, and stellantis, it totals to 150,000, and as you look at the shares of the automakers, they have been trending down over the last several months, but i think they pretty much bottomed out. there are more than a few analysts say they, look, you're close to the bottom here. if there's a strike, and some pressure on these stocks, you're close to where we think there's going to be a bottom here, and

that's why we saw a little bit of an uptick in shares of gm, ford, and stellantis today. melissa? >> phil, how should we think about whether, if there is a work stoppage, even for a day or two, what the economic impact is and how quickly those plants can get back up and running once again? >> a day or two. extremely limited. if it's a week, it's still not that great. you really don't see a major impact until you stretch this out into maybe a four-week, five-week. the real impact would come if you see a strike that stretches out eight, nine, ten weeks. that's when you would start to see real damage in terms of the cost to the automakers. >> all right, phil, thank you. phil lebeau with the latest developments there. stocks today told us that they think that there is no work stoppage. >> well, the stocks have been pricing in something for awhile, and as we've said, getting the clarity, getting through this, i mean, the reality of the bid ask on the labor costs between what the oems are offering and what the union wants is somewhere

between $500 million and $3 billion for '24. so, this is a pretty wide bit ask. but this uncertainty, if you look at gm, down to 32 bucks, looks like, you know, it seems like you've got a very strong floor here and let's hope so. this is a stock that's been nothing for the last two years. what's not good for the automakers, there's no question this strike is going to hang over for the last six to eight weeks, used car prices have gone down for 12 straight months. and that's a dynamic that people are not really, you know, people talk about the age of the fleet that's on the road and how people need to definitely buy a new car and this and that, but used car prices have been very supportive in the past and this correlation is not good. >> we talk about automakers all the time, we should spend more time talking about some of the auto parts, electronics. that stock, i think, few months ago, probably in march, all-time high, 170. you look at a name where gm is basically flat over the last

five years, this stock, lower left to upper right, reasonable valuation and probably in the sweet spot, so -- everybody looks at automakers, look at the parts. >> how do you think about all of these threatened strikes and negotiations when it comes to wage pressures? >> union membership in the united states has been on a downtrend for the last several decades, and what we're seeing gets a lot of attention, but we're not actually seeing a big uptick in union membership, so, that as a share of the economy, how much it moves the needle is still pretty small. at the same time, to me, the biggest el stillustration is th frustration of the average american household. unemployment rate is incredibly low. wages are growing above 5% annually, according to the atlanta fed and consumer confidence is still kind of meh, at best. and so i think people fighting to get wage increase so they can have that real purchasing power is just an ongoing battle right now, and i think that's going to be a headwind as we go forward. >> up next, final trades.

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do not miss the deliveringal fa investor summit in new york

city, where rebecca patterson will be speaking on economic education. visit cnbc events.com/delivering alpha to register. a news alert here on nfl ratings. last night's game between the jets and the bills drew in 22.6 million viewers, that's a record from an espn "monday night football" broadcast, that's up 14% from last year. wow. >> that was some game. >> was it? >> great game. a lot of side plots. sad stuff for the jets and aaron rodgers. just awful. >> i was thinking the same thing. >> i know you were. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. rebecca? >> sure, i'm going to be long oil. xle. supply's got a floor, even if gh demand moderates. >> tim? >> sad stuff in china, i think 88 is the bottom end of that uptrend, and i you this it's time to nibble again. >> dan? >> yeah, intel had a really epic one-month run, highs this morning, up 25% in a month. i would not be chasing it now. >> shoutout to betty patterson,

i just doxed her -- >> sun downers club. >> she believes in the vix, too. >> vicks, not the volatility index. >> psx, melissa lee. >> thank you for watching "fast money," "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> hey, i'm kramer. welcome to special west those coast edition of mad money. welcome. i am just trying to help you make money. my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you. sometimes i want to as