that's all for this edition of dateline. i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines this morning. bp bounces off early woes as inve investors see the ceo resigns. alliance sets out a surprise new course of action in her

state of the union address. >> i can announce today the commission is launching an anti-subsidy investigation as to electric vehicles coming from china. >> a.r.m. will look at the top and the chip marek will invest $100 million in the listing. and uk assets painting a mixed picture after a july gbp goes to the downside. ex-checker gary davies tells cnbc government and central bank action needs to be cohesive. >> ultimately we've got to make sure the treasury policy, fiscal policy is always aligned with what the bank of england is doing. good morning, everybody, and welcome again to "street signs." we're going to kick off the show with a major corporate story we're watching this morning.

that is that benard loonie has resigned as bp ceo for failing to disclose past relationships with colleagues. looney who took the job in 2020 vowed to make changes. he said in a statement the board had reviewed allegations made by an anonymous source last year relating to his conduct in respect of personal relationships with colleagues. he revealed them prior to becoming ceo but there was no breach of the company's code of conduct. on tuesday looney admitted he had not given details of all of his previous relationships. looney oversaw record profits as oil prices surged and described the company as a cash machine in late 2021.

there will be an acting ceo on an interim basis. it's kind of flipping around the zero, flat line, but you can see it's seen opening up in negative territory in the u.s. so little impact a of yet, but on the uk listing, it is basically trading around flat. let's talk about what is going to happen next and who's going to take over the direction of traffic from there. i'm happy to say our guest joins us. good morning to you, andrew. this is surprising news to us all to be waking up to, and i think mr. looney was well known for spearheading the drive to this energy transition. he obviously had reinstated those net zero 2050 charges and came under criticism from the 2030 targets, but ultimately he was seen as the key person that was going to be pushing bp into pushing more toward the energy

transition. now he's stepping away. what does this mean for the company? >> i guess it was a case of too much, too soon. he committed the company to the biggest ambitious targets anywhere. he took over the company at a difficult time. we were just starting to get into the tough part of covid-19, oil prices were in the around $. he had big shoes to step into, the titan sort of executive group. so, you know, i guess from the perspective of investors in bp, for this to happen when we're trading around $90 a barrel, the

al outlook looks pretty good. are we going to see bp now pivot, become more oily again in sell more of its extreme projects? there was certainly a pullback from looney the last couple of months after the mess of earnings in the second quarter. do we get bp to revert to what is traditional know known for, which is get oil out of the ground. >> they have to satisfy so many different stakeholders. many in the green sector will be pushing for faster and greener targets. but shareholders are upset they have not been investing in

enough infrastructure. from a shareholder perspective, would it be welcome news if bp were to start to water down some of these green targets? >> i can't comment from the shareholders' perspective. from my perspective in looking at prices, which ultimate hi do feed to how the investor community will look at the company, it's looking at the outlook and physical commodities. everything that bp trades in at the moment, you know, we're getting very bullish signals, so the outlook for the next one to two years is pretty bright when you consider that. it's whether, again, they want to divert capital back to maximizing that potential, producing more. of course, you're in an environment where opec is constraining productions. it opens up the higher

potentials to fill that gap in the market, which is being left by the opec producers as opposed to diverting capital into the future energy projects. the payout of those is going to be 10, 15 years down the line, whereas the money on the table at the moment is where the high group price is trending above $90 a barrel where some are going over $100 a barrel. in that environment it makes sense to divert capital toward those. >> such useful context here suggesting that this resignation whilst a surprise and certainly negative from an uncertainty perspective couldn't have come at a better time given where oil is where it is. how did bp stand relative to the elevated oil price environment? >> well, i mean bp has some

assets in excellent position in the industry. it still has, you know, a better foundation in the north sea. it recently had plans that we recorded yesterday. it has plans to expand in the caspian, gulf of mexico, strong position in the middle east. so in terms of its output, its capacity to leverage, it's in a very strong position, however, it has fallen behind shell, it's fallen behind exxon and other oil majors. as well, you have to remember looney took over the company still with it kind of living a little bit in the legacy of what happened in the gulf of mexico and, of course, cleared a hurdle. and we have russia. the outcome of that was bp lost its stake there ultimately.

you know, it's had a challenging ten years. it's had a challenging few years. with the decks now cleared, it's interesting they've gone to the ceo to look after the company to see it through this difficult time, but i think all attention has to now turn to who is the long-term successor for bernard looney. you know, will they look to a titan in the oil industry, someone well established to take that over? will they look intern hi to elevate someone within the executive team there to take over and steady the ship and propel bp for the next ten years. >> andrew, you did a great job answering my question for me. thank you for your thoughts on potential succession and appreciate you jumping on to share your thoughts with us. well, sticking with oil markets, we have some fresh lines out of the iea, the

international energy agency, they have kept their demand expectations unchanged. world oil demand maintaining on track led by resurgent chinese consumption, jet full, and chemical feed stocks. in terms of supplies. the cults will lock in a substantial market deficit through q4 of this year. in terms of russia, oil export revenues served by $1.8 billion to $17 billion in august, offsetting lower shipments. and finally just an acknowledgement that prices of oil have moved higher over the last couple of weeks as fundamentals come back, oil reached a high after ten months. you can see brent and wti are trading modestly higher this

morning. and markets have been keeping a close eye on how oil is trading. that's going to affect the trade decisions. we'll talk more about this on the show. that will be the key for direction of travel for the fed. most people say they're done for now, won't see a reason to be hiking further, but, of course, that is going to be dependent on what we do get out of that number later on in this session jo as for markets themselves, yesterday we had a slightly weaker perception. nasdaq down once again. we had the apple launch. the reaction was slightly subdued. asia-pacific also pretty negative as well. you can see here every single one of the indices is trading in the red. we'll talk more about that.

ibex is down. cac 40 is also down. and the awe tore sector is down. ftse 100 trading around the flat line and we had weaker gdp coming out with the july prints coming in at negative 0.5% month over month. in terms of sectors, this is what we're getting today. leadership is coming through on the auto space of 0.3% and this is on back of commentary that we got out of the european president. we'll explain that in a moment. on the flip side retail, i did mention, has been driving the basket lower. industrials also seeing losses of minus 1%. but julianna will give more detail as to why they're rallying. >> as you can see, the automakers are still

outperforming. shares in the carmakers are launching an anti-subsidy investigation into the chinese cars. europe was open to competition but not a, quote, race to the bottom. well, sylvia has been covering this speech for us all morning. what more can you tell us about this anti-subsidy investigation that had quite a market-moving impact this morning? >> reporter: good morning, julianna. we don't have a lot of detail yet. we do know there was quite a lot of pressure particularly from french officials for the european commission to start this investigation. going into this big speech there was a question whether they would announce this investigation, but it turns out she did and indeed this investigation is now underway, according to the european commission. here is the main point here that

indeed the european union wants to protect this industry as well. but let's take a quick look at what she had to say earlier today. >> take the electric vehicle sector. it is a crucial industry for the clean economy with a huge potential in europe. but now the global market is flooded with cheap chinese cars and it's kept in line with huge state subsidy. this is distorting our market, and as we do not accept this distortion from the inside in our market, we do not accept this from the outside. so i can announce today that the commission is launching an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles coming from

china. >> reporter: so it is unclear at this stage how long this investigation will drag on, but, indeed, it's an important police cal message from the eu at this stage. now, i've already been in touch with some officials in france, and they did point me to an upcoming press conference due to happen around lunchtime between the french finance minister and the german finance minister, where they're likely to react to this announcement. let's stay tuned on that front as well. broadly speaking this has been a very important speech for von der leyen. it has lasted for more than an hour. so far the major message from von der leyen is the four years in the mandate have been successful. the majority of her speech was very much a reflection over the last four years, and here we cannot forget the two big challenges that she faced. first and foremost, the pandemic. there we saw her and hatib

talking about the vaccines. the about second was russia's invasion of ukraine. we saw them coming together when it came to sanctions and more broadly when it came to support for ukraine itself. this does not mean the job ends. this is a very important speech. we have european elections in june. this is a mandate. let's see what she will try to accomplish or more importantly what she'll manage to accomplish in the next 12 months. we know, of course, enlargement is going to be one of the most debated topics in the eu in the complex of russia's invasion of ukraine as well. von der leyen mentioned it as well. will they go as far as starting negotiations in the next 12 months remains to be seen, of course, the other big challenge is climate policy. there was a huge focus from von

der der layian and the head team as well. >> sylvia, a fantastic wrap-up. thanks for the details we do have on the anti-subsidy investigation that's been launched on china. coming up choi na weighs in on the outlook. we'll tell you more after the break. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term

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signs." apple has unveiled a new line of iphones and accessories including a new watch and updated airpods all with usb-c charging. apple stock fell on the session but paired some of those losses into the close. arm will price its ipo at the top of the range or higher. the chip designer's share sale

is expected today before trading begins thursday in new york. that would put the firm's valuation at least $54.5 million on a fully diluted basis. tsmc confirmed it will invest as much as 1$100 money a the debut. they named big tech funds who will put money into the company but says none of them have made a decision. arjun joins us more with the latest on the arm listing. arj, big question this week, was money left on the table by the bankers here? what can you tell us about where we stand now on the ipo and the latest confirmation from tsmc? >> the shares are being priced between 47 and $51. there are reports that arm could price them above that as well.

we should hopefully hear more on the price today. but there was a lot of talk about the valuation when softbank bought this back in 2016. they paid $32 billion for it. it's now listed at $54 billion. so there are questions about the valuation here. clearly there's a few things that play. firstly, the context, softbank has haddishes. so perhaps they're trading with a bit of caution here. arm's a critical listing for softbank because, one, it will help give some return to shareholders, but, two, shore up its own balance sheet as it ramps up its investments. secondly, arm ultimately is a story where the growth is stagnating. it still relies from the likes of smartphones and consumer electronics in the area right

now where sales are slumping. the question is where is arm's future growth going to come from. yes, it's always going to be a critical piece of the pie, but how does it transition into new areas like data centers, and the areas of iowa we've been speaking to so well. it's a bit reflective of the fact arm is still struggling with growth and questions how it jumps on. and finally, i guess, the interest from these bigger invef vesters is fascinating. the likes of tsmc makes a lot of the chips that are based on our market structure. companies may want to invest in this listing to have a bit of skin in the game, but also to have a little bit of influence over the technological direction of arm as it pushes into new areas. guys, back to you. >> arj, thank you so much for bringing us the latest and keeping up to speed on this

process. siri joins us now. thank you so much for joining us in studio. what to you think of the valuation of the listing? we were looking at the listing. we were told don't use that as a mark of where things are going to go, so we're expecting much lo lower, but now demand has gone up in a strong way. where do you think this will go? >> they've done a pretty good job of starting the price high and moving it down. the $6 billion set a marker and they cut the range down. now they're suggesting it will be in the top of the range. that's to me a bearish sign because usually you don't have a leak of the actual number. usually kind of good ipo processes say it's always

subscribed. you always have a level of oversubscription because hedge funds often place much bigger orders than you're going to get. you have cornerstone investors that have sort of committed. so you actually don't have that much supply avai vlable as well. so i think they've done a pretty good job on getting valuation where they want it to be, but my view on it is it's pretty rich really. >> yeah, interesting. to what extent -- to julianna's point, there seems to be a lot of interest. a lot of investors have actually shown up. i wonder to what extent are people buying into this arm's current offering versus the future? they're buying into this dream they're going to be able to capitalize on the a.i. wave.

>> yeah. they're trying to rub off the a.i. kind of hype in the market to help their valuation. the trouble is for arm is that arm actually is, you know, a business that was built on mobile chips, right? and when it was acquired originally by softbank, they invested in the internet. you may remember that was the last hyped up area of the market. that never materialized. probably lost a little bit of the drumbeat where they could have been investing in the data center. now they're coming at this on the back foot with access to the mobile market. growth has been flat last year. the question is can they convince investors it's all about the future? the market has been quite week as we've seen with apple and the like, but the other thing we're going to do is raise royalty rates.

it's going to help growth. they're going to have trouble convincing investors there's a leg of growth which would give a strong valuation of the company. >> it's so interesting. when you think about the ipo and the landscape, the landscape has slowed down a lot compared to the boom times. it's going to be the largest ipo of the year and plays into all of these themes we've been talking about. our colleague was saying if you look at the ipo market it's kind of like there was a huge party going on, everyone left the party, and the only room where people are still partying is the a.i. room. to what extent do you think the fortunes of arm are going to determine the hype and where with go from here on wards with respect to the intelligence? >> it's kind of interesting. the ipo windows open and shut.

we have arm coming in as well. that's probably going to be a few more. i think personally my view is that arm is doing its darndest to try to put themselves as an a.i. company. of course, they're going to be there, right, because in the data center, it's kind of a three-legged stool. the truth is most of the constraints and growth is in the gp market where you've seen reactions from nvidia and the likes. it's kind of difficult to say this is going to be a real marker for that. just because it's in the semi-space doesn't mean it's related to a.i. but i think it's going to be a big watershed moment for tech in general. i think tech and achlt are going to be synonymous. the question is how is this going to price and really most importantly how it's going to trade in the first couple of days and months in its life. >> you mentioned instacart. this is one of the hotly

contested ipos in the pipeline. what do you think of the growth potential and do you have any thoughts on the valuation? i think a lot of companies are struggling to assess what the company's worth. >> i can tell you from what i've read, it's essentially quite an interesting company. they built their business on grocery delivery, which is very low margin, quite expensive business. but what they've done in the process is acquire a huge amount of data and done a lot in terms of advertising. i think that's a powerful driver of future growth, so we'll see how that plays out in terms of f this company's prospects. we've come off this big high in 2021. everyone's trying to find their footing. the same with arm and instacart. it will be interesting to see how they price because it will be a first test of the market, right? >> and outside the realm, of

course, of artificial intelligence, a different business model. it will be an interesting one to watch as well. wonderful to chat with you. great to get your perspective today. earlier on in the show we were talking about the impact the european president ursula von der leyen has on autos over here in europe because she has announced they're looking into launching an investigation into subsidies provided by chinese authorities into local carmakers, so now we're getting a premarket look at how some of those key chinese carmakers are responding to that announcement out of the european commission. so xpeng opening down at minus 2.7% versus li auto and nio. a big story to watch.

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signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. >> bp bounces off early lows as divesters digest bernard looney's resignation as ceo, having failed to reveal the full extent of past relationships with colleagues. european autos climb while u.s. listed chinese makers fall in the market as ursula von der leyen sets out a new course of action in her state of the union address. >> i can announce today that the commission is launching an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles coming from china. arm will reportedly price its low luster ipo at the top of the range or just above as the world's largest chipmaker confirms it will invest up to

$100 million in the listing. and uk assets paint a mixed picture after a july gdp goes to the downside. governments and central bank action needs to be cohesive. >> ultimately we've got to make sure that treasury policy, fiscal policy is always aligned with what the bank of england are doing in terms of monetary policy. google representatives argue that the company did not break the law and monopolize internet search, arguing that its search engine is popular because of its quality. the u.s. didn't of justice accused google of paying $10 billion annually to companies like apple and at&t to prioritize its search engine. google said it was compensating partners for software updates. tech ceos including elon musk and mark zuckerberg are heading

to washington to take part in the first a.i. forum. they'll bring together tech leaders and lawmakers to discuss the future of a.i. as well as its impact on jobs. discussions are also expected to inform future rules and regulation. and swiss engineering and technology group abb is ramping up its investment in robotics. i'm happy to say the president of abb robotics joining us live from stockholm. good morning to you, sir. wonderful to have you with us on the show. let me start off by asking you about this new facility you're setting up in sweden. what is the rationale behind it and why sweden? >> thank you for having me in the show again. it's great to be here we have announced we're going to invest

$280 million in our facility. that's an expansion of our existing facility that serves the european market. 90% is served out of the robotics factory from here. we'll consolidate nine buildings and create a new collaborative hub for robotics innervation. we'll bring in partners, universities, and customers to innovate for us. it's going to be very exciting for us and our employees and to serve the next wave of growth in robotics and automation. >> indeed it does sound very promising. one question i want to ask you is about competition and where you see the biggest competition stemming from. earlier in the show we were talking about the threat european automakers are facing from the likes of chinese automakers, which has actually prompted a response at the european commission level. what do you think about your robotics business being challenged by china?

>> the robotics market has been, you know, plagued by many, many players. we as an abb, a swedish company, we have also the japanese competitors, and we have rising chinese competitors as well. so these are the three basically ecosystems of robotics. we are well positioned with our innovation, with our software. we have technologies and vision in a.i. and many others, and we are quite well positioned both in the auto motive market but emerging in our other auto markets in this industry. >> sami, to follow that question up, what do you make of the concern and the criticism, really, that the europeans are at risk of falling behind in the technological innovation space, especially as a.i. becomes a more prominent force in the world. the real giants stand in china

and the u.s., so does europe look like it's going to fall behind? >> well, in our industry, i believe we're very well positioned, especially on the robotics and the a.i. side. we have actually three hubs where we develop. one is in the u.s. we even have it in the silicon valley many in manufacturing and r & t in the hills and other large development hubs, and we have always in shanghai. i can tell you we have a lot of projects on a.i. i myself did mine on robotics. we have been working on a.i. technologies for quite a while. we have inspections of wells using a.i. technology. we have systems that navigate a robot through an unknown

environment, even a factory, and now with generative a.i., we have lots of technologies that we'll bring into the robots that will serve and increase the ability for robots to work in an unstructured environment. imagine where a robot has been talked to in the future by voice, integrated, and it does the task. imagine where synthetic data can train a robot on a multiple basis. so this is actually already reality here, and i believe we are well positioned to serve that market. >> amazing that you had the foresight back then to do a phd in a.i. i'm curious how many other students were doing that back then. let me ask you what your customers in europe are looking for in terms of your offerings and how it compares to what u.s. and china are looking for. >> well, we have a global product strategy, so our products are developed once and rolled out. that's part of our synergies,

but there are nuances that might be different. we d we differentiate on all the sectors. we have emerging new markets like smaller and medium-sized enterprises that use simpler robots. a.i. plays a big role in the way you interact with the robots. we have bakeries asking for solutions where we're already developing. we have, you know, restaurants, retail. so all of these are looking for more automation and there the demand is different. we in abb don't provide not only the robot but the ecosystem around it to help our customers develop. and these demands actually and the requirements level themselves out over time because the industry looks a what is happening in china, and they want to have it in europe and

vice versa in the u.s. >> sami, thank you for taking our questions today about the new launch in sweden. appreciate hearing from you. let's get back to markets and take a look at how european equities are trading. we're red across the board this morning. ftse mib down. the spanish market is underperforming more than 1%. ftse 100 holding up a little bit better and the rest of the market down 0.2%, but clearly it's a risk off to today's starting day. we had autos out in front to start the morning. we've given up the gains there after the european commission announced the launch of the anti-subsidy investigation into chinese evs, perhaps investors becoming more lumwarm around the impact given that it's going to take some time. on the downside you've got retails and industrials underperforming. retails down 1.7%.

here 's a big reason why retail is down. sales jumped 13.5% to 16.9 billion euros. charlotte, if sales have improved and profit is improving, why are sharing down? >> citi called this performance stellar. as you said it's up 40%. that was a little bit above expectations. looking at the gross margin at 58.2%, again, a little bit above expectations. there are some details that have been flagging out including the performance in spain. up nearly 15%. this is a good number. they were slightly below expectations spanning the main market for inditex. so it's a question of whether they start to cut prices.

they'll hide their prices more aggressively. a lot of the investors in the past year have slowed the pace of price increase. keep watching. keep an eye on this. overall the performance was strong. they talk in particular about the u.s. being a region that the management had been pointing out as a potential growth prospect. again the ceo commenting this morning he's very happy with the performance, seeing a strong opportunity for growth in that region. they have about 100 shops in the u.s. compared to the uk. that's why they want to push more aggressively. they will reopen 30 more stores over the next two years in that area. again, it's an interesting mixed bag that we'll have. h&m will be reporting on friday. here, the picture in the inditex has been one of the big winners. last year, the post pandemic era, they're repositioned to

make them a little bit slightly upward compared to some of their competitors, with new management in place, the new ceo and the executive chair who's the daughter of the founder, people have said it's been a successful strategy for the brand. so there's a bit of uncertainty there for the second half of this year. >> charlotte, thank you so much for the breakdown of how inditex has performed over the course of the quarter and how the shares are reacting today. thank you so much for joining us. still ahead on street signs, investors are waiting on the all-important reading with core readings expected to tick higher. we'll discuss more after the break.

welcome back. the uk economy shrank more than expected in july, contracting by 0.5% in what was the biggest drop this year. both goldman and jpmorgan have almost half of their outlooks with the british economy since it hit the wires,

but davies struck a positive tone on "squawk box" this morning. >> it was not so long ago they said we would enter a session this year by now and that has not happened. in fact, what has happened is ey all significantly upgraded their forecasts for the uk. bank of england is saying we will avoid a recession. i should note we've grown faster than others. i should note we're doing the right things to get our economy growing but the number one thing we can do is cut inflation. goldman sachs' david solomon said it's likely to be stickier, but the chances of avoiding a recession are now materially higher than they were a year ago. solomon referenced optimism but pointed to lag time in a time of

uncertainty. meanwhile there was a weighing in on the fed's next step. >> i think they're done. we have enough economic weakness. the one thing that they need to change, to be done is they need the core pce to drop below 4. it's been at 4 to 4.5 for about 2 1/2 years, and that's the one indicator that's just sideways. all the rest of them have very substantially come off their highs. not the core ckcore pce. that has to come down. i think once that goes below 4, i think it's at 4.1 today, i think that will definitively make them stop. >> now, the big event today, u.s. cpi data is due. headline and core meetings are all all expected to take higher

on the year. joining us now is our next guest. phillip, thanks for being with us. is it pretty clear headline cpi has bottomed? >>e've already seen it tick higher and we're seeing energy prices, particularly gasoline prices tick higher. it's not a good sign. core inflation has a ways to adjust lower or a window to adjust lower, but, yeah, headline inflation is probably bombed here. >> what to what extent could the rise in energy prices -- and we're clearly seeing an impact at the pump in the u.s. -- how are you factoring that into your forecast here? >> i think it runs through two angles. one is from the headline perspective, obviously the disinflation from the previous followers has already worked its way through and now we're seeing the base effects start to work the other way.

it's putting an upward pressure on headlines. it's not where the fed targets and the others should be focused. they'll focus to a certain extent because it's considering the front end, but it does hurt in terms of wage negotiations and those kinds of things. energy prices is what consumers pay, so when you're getting into union negotiations, getting into strikes, all of those kinds of things, they do play a role in it. what matters with core inflation is your large segment. of course, that component, particularly for the pce basket, which isn't distorted by some health care effects sri, , is r to wages. it aa it's going to be hard.

>> it's likely to remain there. many people said at the beginning of the year it was going to be easy, quote, unquote, for the fed to bring down headline inflation from 8 to 4 but that the move from 4 to 2, that final mile, is going to be more challenging. is there any evidence to support that the final mile to fight core inflation is the trickier bit? >> that's definitely our core view. we expect it to peak and come off. you have an effect where you have pandemic related distortions unwinding. we saw some inflation come down, which helped the core element of it and we're going to see rents come down. so it's just a lag event. futures are ticking back up. there's a window where you get core read associated with it. it's core housing that matters, particularly for the fed's basket or the fed's target, which is the pc inflation where

housing plays a much lesser role. in order to bring that in, i know earlier we were suggesting we get below 4. it's way above the fed's target, i agree. that's not a win. you know, bringing it down below 4. the reality is although people have been dismissing the super core inflation rate, that is what tells you whether the fed is doing its job or not. it's not that the pandemic relation is unwinding. it comes to core services and housing. that's where you see whether it's restricting or not. the reality is it suggests it's not. >> given what you just said, coronation is to stay sticky. rent also stickier, is it right the fed are pausing at this point? >> i think the fed is going to

take liberty to take a breather. pc is its target, so it will take a breather. i think in regard that the fed is -- let's say the infrastructure is not high enough or sustainably dampen it, this is a pause followed by further rate hikes or maybe the long end of the bond kufr will start to lift higher, but the cost of capital has been too low and needs to adjust higher before the cycle ultimately over. so, yeah, i think people are looking for a positive, but i think the economy is not telling you that. inflation is not telling you that. more importantly, the underlying trend of inflation, i know everybody has the fed's target at 2%. but it's not realistic. it's probably a three-handle. bringing it down to 2% means recession. we are not headed there now. unless we're going to dampen growth, the fed's going to have to give up on 2% or it's got more work ahead of it.

>> phillip, thank you so much for joining us. phillip colmar, global manager. i appreciate you setting us up for the print this afternoon. let's see how wall street is shaping up in the lead-up. you have all three of the majors pointing to a modest pullback. not a lot of movement in the s&p and nasdaq. so perhaps a little bit of wait-and-see mode. >> there are two stocks i'm watching out for. bp, given the reaction that it has been for us to step down. and the other one is apple after the big launch event. we saw a dip in the stock price yesterday. things often change in the subsequent weeks. that is it for our show today. i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. "worldwide exchange" is coming nt.upex

5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here are your "five@5." win streak snap. stocks coming off their first down day in four as investors gear up for one of the final pieces of economic data before next week's fed decision. apple waking up to generally a positive reaction. new iphones and operating systems. is that enough to fuel a breakout in the stock. and it could be the ipo of the year. arm holdings set to price shares after the close today. ahead of that, another big