>> blackstone, the stock was added to the s&p just this week. sells at 16.5 times earnings. this is a good time to buy. >> and joe, bring us home. >> iclr. that's icon, a pharmaceutical company. it's a clinical research company that services the pharmaceutical industry. $21 billion market cap. raised to overweight, $306 price target today. >> that does it for us. "mad money" starts right now. "the exchange" starts right now. >> thank you very much, courtney. ahead today on "the exchange," markets are shrugging off the hotter than expected cpi numbers. the inflation data just doesn't seem to matter the way it once did. we'll look at what is most important to watch right now, like energy prices, which boosted prices that could surge

above $100 a barrel before year end. and it's been called the new detroit, but one of our guests says san francisco is actually a great opportunity right now. our commercial real estate ceo explains why he's so bullish on yes, the bay area. and you saw it right here on cnbc. elon musk speaking to our reporter as he was heaving capitol hill. many other tech titans are still in the meeting, which is supposed to be ending right about there. we're outside ready to grab them as the first meeting draws to a close. we'll bring your more sound bites. first, let's start with the cpi print. my next guest says it's a reminder that inflation isn't dead. investors are shrugging it off, though. the ten-year treasury yield jumped to 4.5%, but we're down

to 4.25%. so is the focus shifting away from inflation data to high frequency gauges on the economy? let's discuss with steven stanley. also with us is steve liesman. welcome to you both. steven stanley, i always take you for more on the hawkish side of the inflation story. >> that's fair. >> would you say that markets are wrong to shrug this off or is this becoming a little more cyclical nervous no, sir? >> this is just a point in time where inflation has come out quite a long time. we got point twos in june and july. we're back up to 0.3, but it's not 0.5 or 6. so it's not so bad it will force a change in the fed outlook. >> so what is the outlook at

this point, that they're basically done? >> i think they're going to skip in september and revisit on november 1st. i have one more hike at that november meeting, but i think the markets are kind of split evenly whether that will happen. >> you watch the reporting and the fed language, and steve signalled this last week, that they are coming down -- it seems like they're airing on the side of officials for fed officials, maybe airing on the side of pausing. is that because of the moderation we have seen in the monthly jobs numbers, that kind of thing? >> the lower inflation numbers have given them a little breathing room. now it's a matter of seeing if there is a followup on the economic side. one thing that's been interesting that they have discussed is that even as the inflation numbers have been softer, the real economy has done quite well, right? so you have had good gdp numbers the first half of the year. q3 will be very strong.

the job market has moderated but it's still quite healthy. so the fed is looking for more of a moderation on the real side of the economy, and that's going to play in just as much as inflation to what they do. >> and to steve liesman. one of the things that strikes me about the data, you can pick any data point toss tell the story because the data points point to a slowdown. on the other hand, the atlanta fed still over 5%. there's bill gates leaving the ai meeting, declining to speak with reporters. so it feels like both camps can tell a story, and i guess that means we don't have enough information to see which way this breaks. >> i think that's the way the fed is breaking in terms of hey, there's some stuff going on. there's this surge in energy prices. if you asked a fed official, they would say i don't expect the price per barrel to go up

$10 every month, but it did go up. and a lot of that may not have been in the august numbers, there there may be worse to come. i do think the fed would like to stop here. that doesn't mean they will stop here. they would like to stop here and see what those 500 basis points of interest rate increases has brought when it comes to the economy. but i don't think that they know that for sure. i think you'll have a couple more months of data. by new thinking is, it will take a good amount of bad news to get the fed to hike again. but if they do hike again, one might not be enough. i just don't know what a quarter point does, if indeed they're in a situation for example of rising inflation again, or they feel like they haven't done enough. i don't think one more quarter is going to do it. i think you can probably be in for an additional 50. but just to say that, the bar for getting there is pretty

high. if the fed gets to a point where they will hike more, they will hike more than once more. >> steven stanley, this is the case the bears have been making. either the economy slows down or not, and the fed keeps hiking. do you think a goldilocks soft landing scenario, do you think it's possible? >> it's possible, but it's threading a needle. we haven't seen it successfully pulled off very often. i think as i said before, we have had a lot of progress on inflation, but i think to 2% is going to be a tough road and the fed will have to be vigilant, as well as patient. >> last question to you, if you had to rank the data right now, what is number one, two, three for the market? >> i think inflation has to be number one. number two would be the consumer. the consumer was very strong in june and july. so you would expect to see a

slowdown in the next few months, especially with the student loan repayments coming into place. if we don't see that, that's a sign that the economy has a lot more momentum than we thought. >> mr. leaseman, quit final point? >> i would add rental and shelter prices. that could solve a big problem if one third of the index comes down in a meaningful way. >> thank you both. we really appreciate it. now to the results oh of a 30-year auction top of the hour. rick, how did it go? >> it did not go well. this was the last $99 million in the form of 30-year bonds. 20 billion originally opened one month ago. the yield, 4.345. the issue market was one basis point lower. d as in dog is the grade.

there was only one metric i was impressed with, and that was 19.7 on direct bidders. that was solid. and the bid to cover wasn't bad at 2.46. but indirect bids, that's the weakest of the year, going back to the summer of last year. and if you look at dealers, they took 15.8%, the largest amount since april of last year. and remember, when dealers have a lot of leftovers, it's because customers picked it over and that's the case here. i'll tell you what, i think that today's numbers at 8:30 eastern had a lot to do with it. we could talk and talk and talk and say the emperor -- in the end, it was a hotter than expected cp ireport, end of story. many believe there's a slowing, whether you look toward es germany or the uk, or realize

those breezes may be heading to the u.s. but it was a rough auction and underscores that investors are paying close attention to these levels, because we're at a fulcrum here in interest rates. some believe this is the highs, others believe we'll stay here a while and grind away like the level we see in both directions in ten-year note yields. back to you. >> this is where the battle lines are drawn. thank you very much. speaking of battle lines, shares of apple, the unveiling of the iphone 15 not reversing the slide in the stock, now down more than 6% month-to-date. any next guest says apple is overvalued and is a shrinking company. bill miller, welcome. >> thanks for having me, kelly. >> apple share prices have not

performed so well, and you might say there's more do it than just a pullback. >> that's right. i think somebody needs to tell the market that apple is a shrinking company trading at a growth company multiple. if you think about the scale of apple, as large as it is -- in fact, you think about the market as a whole, we're at an interesting point in that 2% of the names in the market come prize 33% of the market cap. >> wow. >> that's because these mega cap companies are trading at very high multiples. that 33% of the market is an all-time high, going back to the '70s. it's roughly on par with those levels. but if you think about what it takes for an toll grow from a $395 billion revenue pace, the economy grew at 6%. that's $24 billion in revenue that's mcdonald's revenues. it took decades to create these

companies. so to go like this is a very hard thing to do, yet it trades at 30 times valuation. >> where is fair value? it does and sound like you've been shorting it, because it would be a tough thing to do to a $3 trillion company. but listen, they are doing a lot of things, the share count has fallen by like 30% or more over the past decade. they have done a ton of share buybacks. they seem to be eyes wide open to the realities that you are describing. >> obviously, there's optionality. it generates a ton of cash flow. again, that scale is a very hard thing to overcome. >> we spoke with paul meeks yesterday, who was quite bearish about the company. by the way, there's mark zuckerberg exiting the meeting of ai leaders today.

we're waiting to see if anyone wants to make additional comments to the press. but as we talk about apple, our guest yesterday said they missed their opportunity to buy a tesla or to buy i think you used the disney example. should they do something transformative that would make you be more bull snish >> i think the track record of companies doing massive m&a deals is not great. but there is -- i'm not sure exactly how they create value. what i think about is what do i want to be buying? smaller to mid-cap companies whose valuations are nowhere near these companies. so you think about apple growing, such a scaleable -- or it has been so scaleable in the past. if you think about what it would require for them to grow is very, very challenging. and again, you can cut stuff

out. but there's not -- they're stuck here. so from an investor's perspective, we want good management teams that are allocating moneys in intelligence ways, buying back shares. >> what's the multiple today -- okay, it's 28 today. what would you buy it at, 20, 15? >> i would be much more interested in the teens than in the 30s. >> that extends to -- nvidia was another example yesterday we were discuss bring the guest i mentioned, paul meeks was saying at 30-ish, maybe 35 forward earnings, he thinks it could still have two years of growth left. so i throw it out there to you. i don't know if you have take an deep look, but in terms of valuation, you can have the hottest thing that the economy has almost ever seen at 35 times, or apple at 28. >> that's fair. another interesting comparison is intel back in 2000.

intel stock traded in the 70s back in march of 2000. today it's at 37. so expectations and reality are often inverse liquorlated. so if you have high expectations or something, it's less likely those expectation also be met. >> and the transition to bitcoin. the opposite remains the case, are you still as excited as you once were? >> absolutely. somewhat is interesting about bitcoin, if you look at what happened with the fed's balance sheet last year, it peaked in about april. so bitcoin's down since that time. if you think about over the very long-term, they have to continue to print money. so if you look at the fed's balance sheet over the past 100

years, it's gone at approximately the same rate as u.s. nominal gdp. it will grow again. there's no other option. but they are tightening ing conditions. but at some point they'll have to start printing dollars again. there's only one situation that resolving itself, and that's with a higher price. we're massively bullish on bitcoin over the next few decades. >> i want to mention a couple of the other names that you like. these are smaller companies, better aluation. you like chicos, you like crocs. and on stalantas, with everything that seems to be happening with evs coming out of china, i'm not sure where you would exposure to anything other than maybe ferrari at this

point. >> it comes down to valuation. stellantis has room to grow, probably more room than apple. you have a really good ceo there executin executing, and we like it a lot. >> i know you don't take a big view, but i heard investors arguing that japanese and european companies are so much less expensive than u.s. ones. illergic to going outside the u.s., but are there others more attractive from other companies? >> there's some interesting riffs going on with geopolitics. so we like to stay in the u.s. right now. but there are gardens in the u.s., too. you just have to do the work. >> are you going to be in the

berks ipo? >> i'll have to do more evaluation. >> bill, appreciate your time. >> thank you for having me, kelly. still to come, oil hitting the highest level since last november before turning lower today. my next guest sees prices going higher, past $100 a barrel, both because and despite of asia. he splexplains ahead. a new crop of commercial real estate developers are moving in, in san francisco. one of them joins me next. and the dow clinging on to a 33-point gain. russells are in the red and the ten-year note, down to 4.24. we're back after this.

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saudi arabia could keep the market in a substantial supply deficit through the end of the year, sending prices much higher. my next guest says oil could spike above $100 a barrel before year end. let's bring innen francisco bla. everyone has been making the same case for 18 months in the oil market, but the price has gone from $130 to $65 a barrel. where do we go from here? >> hey, kelly. great to see you. thanks for having me again. look, the market has been growing on three main things, supply, supply, and supply. we have had saudi arabia cutting production for four months straight. we have seen russia, which was maximizing volumes in terms of exports for a good chunk of the past 12 months, shifting gears recently and joining the saudis with deep cuts, as well. and we have had plenty of

refinery issues in europe, asia, and also in the u.s. so all of that is leading to the runup in prices. and demand is not great but not bad either. so that's likely going to lead to a sizable deficit, and could push oil into triple digits before year end. that's our view. >> what would you say to the bears who, having been burned by maybe being long energy at the wrong time over the past year, so would look at this and say once burned, twice shy. >> well, look, we've seen, as i said before, a very meaningful realignment of supply forces here. remember, saudi arabia and russia, the world's two largest exporters. and we had a couple of very important signals in the past week or so. first is we have had the saudis come out and extend the cuts to

year end at prices that were in the mid to high 80s. so that means they're not happy with the current price point. they probably want to see higher prices. we've also seen, of course, a very important change in supply economics in russia, which is very visible when you look at the russian ruble, russianmi microfinances. russia needs more money, so i think they are trying something different. and then inventories are growing. we have had some big inventory growths this week. the latest satellite data points to 20 million barrels. i think once inventories

decline, people will start believing that the market is going to tighten. i think the question is, what would saudi arabia and russia become this aligned again? because they have spent 12 months misaligned, kelly. >> that's interesting. let's talk about, as you say, this all rests on asia, the supply and demand aspect. but i am interested in what chinese demand looks like as this could all hinge whether they pick up momentum or don't. >> yes, absolutely. i think the chinese economy is quite weak. but, remember, it is weak on the industrial side and it's also weak on the tech sector. but if you look at the economy, things aren't that bad. in fact, china has been recovering when it comes to travel, hospitality, leisure. the same things that we've been buying in the west or the u.s. and europe for the past couple of years. the chinese are now buying that,

and those are services. and oil is pretty geared towards services. so we think overall, chinese demand looks okay. international flights are still down 50% in china, so it's a long way to recover to get that back to precovid levels. and that we think is supported, even though the real estate is a mess for china. >> real risk to the economy in some ways. francisco, thank you for joining us today. appreciate it. >> thank you. coming up, the renaissance ipo etf is higher this year. but if you drill down on the individual names and the ten biggest ipos of the past four years, they are down an average of 50% of their closing price on their first day of trade. a cautionary tale if you are a

retail investor? we'll delve into that ahead. and take a look at the dow heat map with 3m the biggest decliner. goldman and honeywell are leading the way today. back after this. don't go anywhere. an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. ♪♪ we're not architects, but we help build stronger communities. ♪♪ we're not just any bank. we are citi. ♪♪ (♪ music ♪) we (♪ ♪)iti. the walking tree is said to change its entire location in pursuit of sunlight (♪ ♪)

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pilot. the investigators from the ftsb are expected on the scene sometime thursday. a judge ruled that donald trump may only review evidence in a secure place while preparing for his classified documents trial. trump's team opposed security protocols for handling evidence and asked to review documents at his mar-a-lago estate in florida. prosecutors said it would be inappropriate to review documents in the same place where he's being accused of illegally storing them. and major league pickleball and the professional pickleball tour agreed to merge in what the league founder calls a yun nighed professional pickleball organization. thank goodness! a private equity firm and mlb owners are backing the deal with a $50 million investment. the merger will halt the spespend ing spree and competition as they have fought for top

picklers. >> that is a sport to watch. thank you, tyler. coming up, we'll talk to a real estate developer betting big on san francisco. where he is seeing opportunity and why. that's next. my name is caron and i'm from brooklyn. i work for the city of new york as a police administrator. i oversee approximately 20 people and my memory just has to be sharp. i always hear people say, you know, when you get older, you know, people lose memory.

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welcome back. let's check in on capitol him as the meeting on ai has wrapped. what's the latest? >> reporter: it's been a wild scene over the past couple of minutes.

we have seen bill gates walk out, mark zuckerberg left the meeting. i had a chance to catch up with elon musk and talked to him. he was in a fairly chatty mood, i have to say. a lot of these ceos just walking by not wanting to chat elon did take a few questions. i asked him how the meeting went. he says he thinks this was a historic meeting in the room today. he said he thinks that some of the senators in the room are considering really a radical overhaul of the way the u.s. government relates to ai. take a listen to what he said. >> i think the probability -- [ inaudible ] -- is likely at some point. i think so. now, the reason that i've been such an advocate for ai safety in advance of sort of anything terrible happening is i think the consequences of ai going wrong are severe. so we have to be proactive rather than reactive.

>> reporter: so talking to elon, he's putting all this in a vast sort of civilizational frame. he's talking about the potential for ai to do harm to civilization across the board. that's something you don't really hear on capitol hill a lot of talk about. so you wonder how that kind of idealistic or society wide approach to ai merges with the legalistic, legislative and lobbying approach inside the building here of some of these other ceos and executives attending today. how many of them are thinking of the future of human civilization and the future of their company's bottom line? that's the tension here at this meeting, kelly, as we watch and wait for some of those ceos to come back. we expect the rest of the session will go on without some of those big names and some important discussions to come for the rest of the day. >> a historical day, i think. it's interesting to watch the senator's comments on what

direction this is headed. eomon, thank you. the bay area has been a prominent example of what experts call the doom loop, as workers left during the pandemic, big tech companies down sized, residential and commercial vacancies sores. homelessness and crime saw an upswing and workforces are reluctant to return to the offices. american eagle outfitters is suing westfield mall in san francisco, claiming that over the past three years, there have been more than 100 significant security incidents, and that the co-owners let the mall fall into disarray. those two operators turned that mall over to their lender, saying back to you, challenging operating conditions back in june. a few months ago, julie beale warned investors, saying it's a city in decline. kyle bass told us office

buildings should be torn down rather than converted into residential properties there. while it seems like most of america has given up on san francisco, our next guest says it could be a land of opportunity, even for commercial real estate developers like myself. joining me now is the chairman and ceo of west coast properties. how is that for an intro, barry? >> great, great. >> the stakes are quite high here. >>io you checked all the boxes. >> i'm being a little fa cfacet, you are based in san francisco, so you have a front row seat. >> i think we understand that the market is a little more nuanced than the press is trying to paint it. look, if you own a trophy building, office is sort of the poster child for what's wrong in the commercial real estate sector. it faces the headwinds from the capital market sector, from the

work from home phenomenon. but the -- and supply and demand metrics, right? but the capital markets thing applies to multifamily and industrial retail. so all the values are down. i just think in the office sector, it's hyper magnified. >> could you give us some examples? our audience is filled with people that want to buy companies at 1.5 times earnings and would buy buildings if they were dirt cheap. do you see signs that people are returning or a little bit of both? >> i think it's a little bit of both. in san francisco, again, not all buildings are created equal. commodity buildings, what was trading for upwards of 850 or more a foot is now between 150 and 250 a foot, right? but if you own a trophy building, you're pushing rents. >> higher? >> higher, right.

so you've got this barbell effect. i think obviously if you own a bunch of commodity levels, you're not loving life at the moment. what is happening to those buildings? it's like this hot potato. they're given back to the banks, the banks don't want them. can they convert them to residential or just tear them down? >> i think converse to residential for most of the buildings in san francisco is unrealistic. but i will say there's two bets people are making. one bet is buy it so cheap that you can undercut rents and live forever. that's one bet. the other bet is buy it so cheap, you can convert the building into office space that people want to go to work in. we're the proponents of the second bet. >> so you want to take existing office buildings, keep them off, and making them state of the art. >> exactly. you have to create an environment where people want to

go back to work. you are competing with someone's couch, right? and this is not new. we have seen this happening in america for the last 20 years. it's just gotten to this crescendo where it's something that people have to deal with. and it's not a matter of, can you push rents if you convert these buildings? it's a matter of, there is a rent that will clear. i believe that if you're commodity buildings, there is no clearing in san francisco. it's no different than mid block, third avenue in new york versus hudson yards. >> absolutely. >> right. so you have to buy the buildings cheap enough in order to be able to afford to do the things you need to do to make it interesting. >> any other chances -- you picked up vornado, because they think that proximity on the compute is one of the only ways to get people back in the

office. >> there's no question, if you've got access to mass transit, there is no question that is a plus. you know, if you're proximate to housing, that is a plus. so, again, you can't paint the market with one broad brush. >> how long is it going to take? when you look at an office building, and you're getting it not for pennies, but maybe 50%, 60% discount. you have to do the massive investment to get this up to a state of the art investment. when do you expect the payoff to be. is this a three, five, ten-year window, and what does it depend on from the city's side of things? >> youthese buildings are cheapo from the standpoint of a time frame, i've been doing this a long time, since the rtc, the

gsc, the dot com bust and now today. call it what you want. but all the markets that were tech heavy, they're all very tech dominated and they're high growth industries. that's the good news. the bad news, you go through these rapid decompressions. but everyone that recovers has always happen ed much quicker. how long does it take? i don't know. my guess is the world's going to look very different in 24 months from now. >> last question, you mentioned your triangle of investment extends from san diego up to seattle down to austin. where would you put san francisco in terms of the rebound you expect by those cities? it going to come out first? where does it stack up against the opportunities or lack thereof that you might also see in a seattle and in an usaen? we don't even talk about san diego. >> given the fact that san francisco had the biggest runup of all the markets we are in,

and the biggest down fall, i would expect the runup to start happening in san francisco sooner than many of the other markets. capital tends to pool in certain locations. it doesn't treat every location the same. and san francisco is one of the markets where you have seen investors pool capital over time. i would expect that to continue. >> fascinating. barry, thank you for joining us to talk about it. coming up, czech out these cava shares. the first is on jup 15tne 15th it started trading. it opened at $42, up 62% from the list price. but then look at this, if you track the action from the following trading day, shares are down 19%. could arm's debut be different? we will explore that, next, here on "the exchange." i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative

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welcome back. we're on the eve of it, the arms much anticipated ipo expected to price after the close today, set to be the biggest listing we have seen in years. after thinking ofbuying in, there are some warning signs out there. diedra joins us with that story. >> we kind of talked about this a few days ago, the idea that a lot of retail investors, they want to get into some of these big blockbuster names. they may have heard arm is 99% of all smartphones. but investors haven't been able to own a piece of it until that ipo. but if we look at history, blockbuster ipos and the heightened excitement doesn't usually pay off. this chart looks at seven of the biggest ipos over the last four years, including airbnb,

snowflake, toast, et cetera. you'll see that their return from their first-day highs, so the peak on their first day trades, the returns have been miserable. even snowflake, which is up 33% from its ipo price, it's down 50% from the first-day high. you also have others at the bottom of this list. they haven't been good if you buy into the hype. but there may be a better day to buy these names. there's the chart i was referring to. we talked about insta cart. it is going public at a quarter of its last public accounting. it may account for the slowing growth that the again has seen, and sort of the valuation, disparity that has happened. so that could be one name where retail investors don't get left holding the bag. >> this is my sort of time to

say, we're all follow thing tomorrow. look at the open price for reference. the ipo price is great for the company, for the bankers, for kind of that ecosystem. but in terms of what the public investor is going to get, it's the open price that matters. >> absolutely. take a name like riban. they went pub lic and was able o cash in on the electric vehicle. we have ford and amazon as investors in this ipo, so that created more excitement. but this ipo is down 80% f the first-day pop. arm is in a different situation, obviously, trying to capture the ai hype. but it's at the very beginning or showing investors how it will be a generative ai play, so it requires some belief and it has some of that hype because of the investors. every tech name has been thrown in the hat as a potential

investor in this ipo. so just a reminder going back to that big chart that the first-day pop isn't indicative of what you could earn in the longer run. >> diedra, thank you. it's going to be a busy day or two. coming up, think tech is this year's best performing is year's best performing sector. it's really communication services. it's up more than 40% but one strategist is finding value there in this name in particular. down more than 14%eatoat yr--de with a dividend yield now higher than its earnings multiple. these are my favorite stocks to talk about. mystery chart revealed is next. every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity

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welcome back to the change. mortgage demand just hit its, when you think it can't go lower, it's now at the lowest level since 1996. as rates continue to rise especially with the move today, home builders are still outperforming as tight supply continues to plague the housing

market and despite that, the stocks are still relatively cheap. and my next guest is still a buyer. chris is here onset with me. great to see you. welcome. >> thanks. >> we first talked about these when they were like two and a half times earnings. why not declare victory when they've been on a great run? but you're not bailing on them. >> first of all, they're not that expensive. the demographics are super in your favor. since the global financial crisis, lot of folks postponed buying. they're entering the market now. there's the demand short. excuse me, the supply shortage. but the real thing is that these home builders are making so much money they can afford to subsidize the mortgage. if you get on the toll website, you'll get not a mortgage for 7.5, you'll get one through 5.5 and get it through toll mortgage company then you're thinking

wow, i can afford to buy that house and you jump in and the economics work for both parties and home builders are making a ton of money. >> is there a reason you like toll? are you weary on the others? >> everybody's got to do their own research. we like these as a barbell. i like calling them the berkshire hathaway. they're more expensive. toll brothers is the high-end, average price of a house is almost a million dollars. so but they're giving these cheap mortgages. it's a very strong market. it's probably better than the entry level market. so you play that two different ways. but if you do the math, they're all very correlated. >> exactly. great point. let's pivot from there to talk about the other parts of the market that are super cheap. verizon is one example. the dividend yield is now higher than the multiple. maybe it's 8% and 7.

isn't that traditionally a value trap kind of sign? >> it could be but i want to point out verizon, there's lots of companies that have a yield higher than the multiple. but they're going out of business. >> right. >> this is an investment grade company that has an 8% safe yield and you know, they're not growing by leapis and bounds. this is more a sale close to shore. these guys will hit their numbers. it's investment grade. maybe it trades at 11 times over the next few years and you get 50% off and the stock price making 8% while you wait. >> infthis was the mystery char. is it good enough to get rates on the multiple a few times and hopefully we dodge recession? versus an area where you might be able to make a lot more than that very quickly. at least that's the way it feels. >> what's happening here is, it's the time to own a verizon.

and not the time to try to find a five bagger. i think we will look back at this moment in time and say what were we thinking? the fed has raised rates the fastest and highest number of basis points in any of our careers unless you were born in the eisenhower administration or earlier. so it's going to have an effect but it's going to take a while because of such strong momentum. that's why i think the home builders can still do well. >> if it's cloudy and difficult, wh what about the idea of owning tech? it's not because they're sexy and high growth. it's because even in a recession, they're the new staples. i know they're priced for that. >> the devil's in the details. it's valuation, valuation, valuation. i like amazon a lot because their fate is in their own hands. they're cost cutting. delivering more to the bottom line. they're delivering to the

shareholder in ways they were not a couple of years ago. apple is problematic. it's a great company but it's a really high multiple. we're old enough to remember apple at 12 times earnings. >> it's just a hardware company and maybe it still is. we've come full circle on the show with our apple bears so we'll leave it right there. chris, thanks so much for your time. appreciate it. that does do it for the exchange today but next on "power lunch," we've got a little more than 100 days left until rimachsts and concerns about holiday sales are already cropping up. i'll see tyler and everybody in a moment. ♪♪ we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets.

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