♪ ♪ opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity... ...is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. good day, everyone, and welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen and we've got a couple of big stories today.

cpi and ai. first, inflation. the year-over-year rate up 3.7%. that was hotter than july's number. august was hotter than july but a lot of that can be blamed on gas prices. so are we really passed the inflation threat? that's the question we'll discuss. plus, elon musk, mark zuckerberg, they're not fighting. they joined with bill gates and others to meet with senators in washington today discussing the future of ai regulation. we'll ask what they're saying and why it is occurring. this discussion behind closed doors. kelly? >> thanks. and let's get a check on the markets where the dow is up 26 points. the underperformer today. the s&p's hanging on to a third of a percent gain and nasdaq is up two-thirds of a percent. apple shares are lower again after the big launch event yesterday. down about two-thirds of a percent but almost 7% now this month and a chinese government spokesman says the country has not banned purchases of apple

phones but also noted security incidents concerning the iphone. speaking of which, the one affecting gm resorts, security incident, still going on. reports of slot machines being down. people having to pay in cash or write their credit card numbers down on paper. mgm shares this week are down about 4%. netflix turning lower as the cfo comments on the business. with the stock down almost 4% today, let's get out to julia for more. >> that's right. netflix shares are down about 3.5% after the cfo spoke at the bank of america media conference. he cautioned netflix's ad business is still in the very early stages and so far, not material to the overall revenue of the business. he said this is something they're going to have to build up over time, saying it's not easy to build an ad business from scratch. on the upside, he said they're nowhere near peak margins and

the positive impact from sharing will be felt through 2024. he said spinoff accounts are skewing toward sign ups for the ad free option which works against netflix's push to build up ad viewership and inventory. as for speculation that they could buy sports rights or movie assets, he said it's hard to see the return on billions of investment in live sports. he also said there's a high bar to acquire any sports. >> this is a drastic reaction. $15 on the stock. almost 4%. it feels like a lot for someone who is saying what ought to be sort of obvious, which is that you can't build an ad supported model from scratch and do it quickly. >> look, there are two things that analysts and investors have been optimistic about in terms of providing new legs of growth for netflix beyond

internationally. one is the crack down on password sharing. that's going to get people to sign up for ad free version but also going to get some people to sign up for the ad supported version. then there's the optimism about advertising in general. especially that if consumers are under pressure, they're going to be looking for lower cost ad supported options. i think there's this question of whether people were too optimistic that advertising could start to impact the company's bottom line in the near future. what i heard in this commentary is that not anymore in the near future. it's going to be oo while before we see a meaningful impact from advertising. i think he was trying to make it clear it's a long-term bet, not a near term one. >> thanks very much. let's get back to inflation now and the reaction to this morning's cpi report. rick santelli joins us from chicago. rick?

>> yes, tiyler. a counterintuitive morning. cpi, there is a raw actual index. it started in 1913. the core index, that started in 1957. the index you're looking at starts in 1947. i couldn't go all the way back to 1913. it's not seasonally adjusted and you can see at an all time high. you can also see the angle of ascension has really climbed over the last couple of years. the reason i'm showing that is for all practical purposes, every cpi makes new index raw number highs. then we adjust it. we do a lot of different calculations to bring you the number. and what did the number show? it definitely showed hotter inflation. whether it was a head line number at .6 or year-over-year quarter and headline all warmer than expected. you look at twos and tens on one chart, you can clearly see we reached almost 508 in the two,

434 in the tens then it all reversed out. if you look at a two-year, how significant was that test? august of '25, 508 is the high clo closing yield so we basically intraday tested it and failed to move lower. tomorrow, the meeting, we're short maturities like the two-year are leading the curve. in germany, it's known as the shot. you can see it there. over 3.15% leading the curve going into tomorrow's ecb where the fear is their inflation is running hotter than expected. there's a lot of different ways to measure inflation. us old-timers still remember the crb index which is trading at an 11-month high as we speak. back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much. and august cpi, that print showing inflation posted its biggest gain in august this year. rising 3.7% from a year ago. now that's a far cry from the 9.1% set in june of last year,

however. and with investors seeming to s shrug off the higher than expected core number, will the fed do the same next week? let's discuss with steve. what do you think that this cpi print does for the deliberations inside the fed? >> well, it's interesting because clearly the market had it all priced in because you see it in the numbers today. you know, the conference board has projected that the fed will remain constant here and skip an increase in september but we'll have to come back in november and raise the interest rate one more time. discount rates by 25 basis points. so we think there's one more in here. i think today's numbers prove there is still work to be done here. everybody's disappointed in today's numbers because it's gone back up and we've been waiting for this holy grail of 2%. now, having said that, if you look at the numbers, the real difference is gasoline prices. >> it's all gas.

>> it's all gas. and that is really important for the consumer because pufood and gas, but with gas, there's gas. you've got to put it in order to get to work, to school, to commute. so it tends to be a fixed cost and it really affects the poor people disproportionately hard. we've got two things going on. russia and saudi arabia. both cut supplies this month and also you've still got the end of the summer gas formula. now that ends on friday, september 15th. the refiners can go back and get more here in the united states. hopefully then as you get more throughput if nobody else internationally cuts supply, we can kind of get these gas prices back down. but you seeconsumer confidence directly correlated in their move directly correlated with gas prices. you can almost see it month to month. >> it is the tried and true thing because people, it is the

one thing that people see on their way to work. on their way to pick up their kids. they see the signs that tell them if fuel is getting more expensive. the other one that is sticky and up from a year ago is shelter costs. >> yeah, look, you would think raising interest rates would cool the market. the problem is that there is a lag in the market from the interest rates, mortgage rates through the rental market. it's still the rental market that's driving that increase this shelter but you also have a housing shortage at the same time. this has never been seen before. yeah, you've reduced the demand but you still need supply in here. so i am sure the home builders and other commercial multiunit builders are going well, which way should we go here? do you build into this thing because normally, you would just shut it off but at this point this time, you still need it. you've got two things going on. the biggest variability is gas.

you talked about being 100 days out from the christmas holiday. that's really important to this economy from a consumer standpoint and if consumers continue to have to put all their money in the gas tank, there's not going to be as bright of a holiday season and that's going to hit gdp. >> it affects income level. sort of inflation adjusted income levels and that hurts the less fortunate, less high income people in the country much more than it does others. steve, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thank you. sticking with the inflation theme, seema mody joins us with a look at the travel numbers inside this morning's report as well. what did we learn? >> air fares bouncing back by 5% in the month of august as energy prices continue to climb. plus data showing a record number of americans planning to

travel nooverseas in the next s months. however, air fares are expected to drop this month. average round trip ticket to tokyo and paris dropping significantly. for hotels, average daily rates will rise in the near future as conference season picks up led by the big cities, new york, where rates have already increased by 10% year-over-year. that's one of the reasons, guys, analysts say hotel stocks continue to outperform air lines in 2023. >> and where do you think the trend broadly speaking goes from here? as we kind of sus out which way inflation pressures are pointing in the next six to 12 months? >> experts have been flip-flopping over the narrative as to what the next three to six months really look like. i think the pivotal moment will be this holiday season and if gas prices continue to move higher, how that impacts americans and their thinking around a road trip. will they think twice about whether they take that trip and will they stay at a roadside

hotel or not. so there are a lot of different question marks that we want answers to given the recent pick up in energy prices. >> all right. we'll see air fares in particular. the way jet fuel prices have been. thank you very much. coming up, only 102. who is counting this. 102 shopping days until christmas but if you start worrying about sales numbers now, you can beat the rush. we will dig into an early, lackluster holiday sales production. and the big ai meeting in washington is breaking up. our eamon javers caught up with elon musk on the sidewalk. we'll go to washington for the latest headlines out of that meeting. stay with us on "power lunch." ♪"please don't go" by harry casey, richard raymond finch♪ (sfx: ping)

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some of the biggest names in technology on capitol hill this morning talking with senators about the future of ai. emily wilkins on the senate side tucking to lawmakers. eamon javers is speaking with tech leaders. am you had a nice conversation with elon musk. >> he was a little chatty as he left the meeting here. we're just outside the russell senate office building. this meeting is going to go on until about 5:00, 5:30. a lot of those big names have already left.

bill gates went out the door. mark zuckerberg. none of them stopped to talk to us but elon musk was in a bit of a chatty mood, a little reflective as he came out of the meeting. he called it historic. >> i think it was very civilized discussion, actually, among some of the smartest people in the world. so i thought senator schumer did a great service to humanity here. i think something good will come of this. i think this meeting may go down in history as being very important for the future of civilization. >> musk also told me he views ai has a different kind of issue that you normally see on capitol hill because it has dire consequences if it gets out of control. he was here very much to deliver that warning to the senators. we also got a word by the way from facebook's team.

they gave us a readout of what zuckerberg said behind closed doors. he according to facebook, told some of the senators about the importance of ai and also the importance of open source software in ai development. and that being a key. that's interesting because open source has been a little controversial because it can lead to bugs and malware being unintentionally or maliciously slipped into the software. zuckerberg pushing for that piece as one of the bullet points he delivered to the senators. back to you. >> not sure that mr. musk went into it with you in that sort of walk by, but what is he so concerned about and do i infer from his concern that he welcomes some kind of regulation or governing body like the fcc or fda to supervise this? >> tyler, he does welcome it. he told me when ceos were asked who favors regulation in this

group, all of them raised their hands. devil's always in the details on this. really depends on what regulation you're talking about. elon musk told me look, i deal with all the regulatory agencies here in washington all the time. he said he was on his way to the faa right now to talk about aviation issues which you can imagine for both starlink and spacex in general are going to be significant issues. what he's talking about with civilization is something much bigger. the idea of ai getting out of control. if you have a consciousness or at least an intelligence that is greater than humanity itself and it's tasking itself with things to do, you kind of worry in the terminator scenario where that leads. elon's been doing a lot of thinking about that and has been very vocal about that over the past several years. he clearly was giving that world view anyway to the senators here today. >> thank you very much. >> you bet. >> now let's get to emily wilkins for the political side of today's meeting and you heard

how elon musk described it. very flattering to chuck schumer, saying this was an historical event. >> kelly, you heard a lot of senators echo that talking point that what happened in the room behind me was historic. three-hour hearing. now another three-hour meeting talking about tech, policy, and ai. when schumer exited the room to chat with reporters, he was very, very optimistic about what he had heard in the room and what consensus he got. listen to what he told us. >> we got some consensus on some things. first, i asked everyone in the room is, does, is government needed to play a role in regulating ai and every single person raised their hands. even though they had diverse views so that gives us a message here. that we have to try to act. as difficult as the process may

be. >> and there is disagreement, kelly, of course, not everyone is on the same page. they might be at a high level but once you dig into the details, it is clear there's a lot of debate. they agree there needs to be regulation but they don't agree on who needs to regulate. whether this needs to be a new agency, a current agency, single agency. multiagencies. this is still something that senators are very much discussing. there was debate on whether ai should be open source. on one hand, it could lead to more innovation. other hand, there's concerns that ai models are easily corrupted and that could wind up being a very negative thing. you have seen some early framework for legislature that has come out of the senate. senator schumer put some forward. we've seen efforts by josh hawley and richard blumenthal but really everything is at the 30,000 foot level. it's going to take a while to get those details. blumenthal said he hopes to have a draft legislation by the end of the year.

that could put passing legislation into 2024 then you're running up against the election. >> we have a little bit of a transmission delay, but let me ask you this. this was a meeting convened by majority leader schumer. were there gop members in the room? was it the whole senate? who was there from the senate? >> there were republicans in the room. all senators were invited. schumer has convened this small bipartisan group. it's him, the senator from south dakota, two republicans, two democrats and it was schumer and rounds who really led a lot of the questions today. and schumer and rounds both said anything the senate does on ai, it has to be bipartisan. even if that means they can't get a bigger bill done, they need to move in lock step on an issue as important as this. >> all right, emily, thank you very much. appreciate that. coming up, the pinch that stole christmas. early estimates predict holiday shopping could be a bit slow

this year as consumers become more frugal amid high inflation and a potential recession still looming. we'll get the key details when "power lunch" continues. stay with us. (fan #1) there ya go! that's what i'm talkin' about! (josh allen) is this your plan to watch the game today? (hero fan) uh, yea. i have to watch my neighbors' nfl sunday ticket. (josh allen) it's not your best plan. but you know what is? myplan from verizon. switch now and they'll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. (hero fan) this plan is amazing! (josh allen) another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. (fan #1) that was josh allen. (fan #2) mmhm. (vo) football season is here. get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. a $449 value. plus, get a free 5g phone. only on verizon. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley.

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dow jones industrial average has given up its earlier gains. it has turned negative by five points as the s&p and nasdaq try to hang on to their increases today. a lot of the focus has been on the consumer lately amid signs spending is starting to slow. courtney reagan is here with a look at one not so rosy sales forecast, courtney? >> i know. seems like they come out earlier and earlier. but it's almost mid september and market watchers and economists continue to debate whether the u.s. is in a recession or soft landing. the first forecasts are kind of having that same debate. forecast sales will grow between 3.5 and 6% today but the cpi reading puts prices up 3.7% so that's just about in line with the rate of inflation. the forecaster notes inflation did account for much of the retail sales increase last year and with this year's moderation, retail sales will grow more slowly. might just outpace inflation. however, the vice chair says the

sharp rise in services spending is leveling off and spending on durable goods remains high. more cautious forecasting holiday sales will grow wujust . higher wages, higher dispose abl income along with higher stock prices could be useful tail winds. then morning consult shows that more than a quarter of americans starred holiday shopping as of late august and that those early shopping deals aren't doing so out of financial stress but they're more likely to be splurging. sp interesting stuff. >> it seems these numbers are adding up to a flat year. >> pretty much. you're going to see this increase but if we have the cpi at 3.7, there's going to be some differences. so consumers aren't falling off but are not probably going to be

spending as much as we could have in years past if we didn't have all these pressures continuing. >> and if gasoline prices continue to eat away at people's spending power, it could affect the able thility to pay for gif. let's go to kate rooney for an update. >> utah senator mitt romney is walking away from the senate after just one term. the 76 republican announced he is not seeking re-election for the seat because he thinks it's time for a new generation to step in. romney, the only republican in the senate to vote twice to convict president trump said a second term would take him into his mid 80s. russian authorities said a ukrainian attack set two ships ablaze. a black sea strike injured dozens of people. the largest city of the peninsula has been used to niche

wait attacks deep into ukraine. it's the latest of a string of attacks on russia's navy. beyonce and taylor swift have a big reputation in the music industry and now the nation's largest newspaper is hiring reporters just to cover their careers. "usa today" and the tennesseean are looking to hire a journalist with at least five years experience to follow the international superstars as they run the world. tyler? >> looking for any business journalists? an anchor? >> one, two, three. we've all got more than five years experience. >> feels like you need a tri cowe to cover this. call us. >> we're ready. ahead on "power lunch," mortgage market mayhem. applications falling for the seventh time in eight weeks sinking to their lowest level since 1996. rates for a 30-year fixed alone now soaring well above 7%. we'll eabrk it down when "power

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the latest data since 1996. >> we keep setting new lows, kelly. mortgage rates helped steady today following the release of the cpi data because it came in along expectations. so not much whichange in the expectations of what the fed will do. the average rate is at 7.25% and rates have now been over 7% since late july. the longest period they've held at that level in 22 years so it's no wonder mortgage demand has fallen off a cliff. total application volume is at the lowest level since 1996. refie demand is next to nothing but there are few borrowers who have rates higher than today's and could benefit. refis now make up just 10% of all originations. cash out refis no longer worth it because to get the cash, you

have to trade up to a much higher rate. applications for a mortgage to buy a home were 27% lower than they were a year ago and while that has to do with higher mortgage rates, it also has to do with home prices which are back on the rise. just to add fuel to the fire, mortgage credit is tightening as well. guys? >> diana, stick around as we bring in danielle hale. as diana pointed out, it's kind of a curious phenomenon. you've got interest rates at highs and sticky highs not seen in 20 something years but you've also got prices continuing to rise. presumingly because supply is so low. there's not a lot of cracking going on in the prices of houses, is there? >> you're right. buyer demand the low but supply is even lower and that's keeping

prices elevated. we did see a bit of a pullback this summer so prices dipped on a year-over-year bases in june and july in our data but in august, they were back up compared today a year ago and other measures are sort of moving similarly. prices are roughly staying flat at recent highs despite high mortgage rates and that's creating some affordability challenges for buyers, keeping demand low, but not as low as supply because many existing homeowners like diana mentioned have rates lower than todays. >> you don't want to give up your 3% mortgage and chexchanget for a 7%. danielle, what do you anticipate in the fall which is traditionally a dormant season for home buying and selling. people are where they want to be. they don't want to move around the holidays and so forth or in the dead of january.

>> supply is so low, fall tends to offer a bit of a break. the best time to buy in 2023 is the first week of october because prices ease seasonally. buyer demand tends to ease seasonally and these cycles are a bit more predictive. you don't necessarily have to wait for mortgage rates to change but you can take advantage especially if you've been shopping for a while and have been frustrated by what's available in the market. and adding to that, in our august data, new listings are still down on a year-over-year basis but they did tick up from july to august, which is not a seasonally normal trend. it is a surprise. and does suggest that maybe some homeowners are making moves that they have perhaps delayed before things get worse. >> what's fascinating as well is

to think the best way to get home prices down would be for the fed to cut rates because then all of a sudden, you'd have people saying i don't mind moving and taking on the mortgage. it's kind of a reversal of what we usually see. >> it is. there are a lot of homeowners out there now who might have been worried about the rates and trading up but they might be thinking prices are rising and could i make more on my house. i also have to think that rents are playing a factor in this and that is that we're seeing apartment rents really start to cool off dramatically as we see more of this supply come on to the market and that's reducing the number of home buyers out there because they're seeing this incredibly pricey market saying all right, my rent's not as bad as i thought or at least it's not going up and maybe i'll wait this out a lit. so i think that dynamic is going to play out in the fall and i wonder as we see inflation, if it starts to cool off at all, that we would potentially see rates come down and that's

really goening to move this mart because there's so much pent up demand out there. >> not sure if you have this on the top of your head, but what is the composition of the mortgage market look like? in other words, are more people taking adjustables than was the case a couple of years ago? i can only imagine that it is. >> that's a good question. i haven't looked as the data super recently, but mortgage rates were higher than they had been over the last couple of years. because the likelihood of rates falling is higher but at the same time, the price savings, the rate savings you get from taking on an adjustable mortgage has declined so i don't know, diana, you may know the recent numbers better than i do. >> they're up about 7, 7.5% and in the last week, the adjustable rate share of mortgage demand did rise and that happens every time you see rates go up. as a comparison, we were saying the share in 2020 when rates

were around 3%, that share was barely 2% so you've pretty much tripled in the last two years because of those high rates. >> thank you very much. appreciate your time today. >> coming up, banking on a shake up. hatigroup announcing a corporate overul including cutting back layers of management to better streamline business decisions. we'll get the details when "power lunch" returns. -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received. at&t business. ♪♪ we're not writers, but we help you shape your financial story. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets.

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welcome back. citigroup's ceo announcing a complete reorganization of the bank's business. it includes job cuts and a consolidation of management. part of a bid to streamline decision making as the stock remains in a slump, down 6% this year but up 2% on the news today. joining us now is leslie picker and cue sun. i'm not sure there's more to say other than a 20-year stock chart. >> well, the 20-year is a good time horizon to look at because she basically called this the biggest reorganization in the last two decades. the stock reacting somewhat muted to the news. i think less than what many angelests expected it to, up about 2%.

the main goal from all of this as you look at these reorgs that take place, they're trying to make sure when decisions need to be made, they're made in an expedient fashion and aren't bogged down by bureaucracy and red tape and things you can find in big organizations anywhere but especially true at large, regulated banks. that's the end goal here but with efficiency, reorganization often comes job cuts which the industry itself has been succumbing to over the last year or so. citigroup didn't put a number on the amount of jobs they plan to cut. they said there will be cost savings announced in their fourth quarter earnings but anytime you see this, you can expect trimming down of the workforce. >> if we could look at a comparative chart of citi, bank of america and jpmorgan say over the past ten years, citi has been dead maoney. why?

what have they gotten wrong? >> it dates back to financial crisis. so they had a deal initially to purchase the bank assets of wachovia. now that went to wells fargo which ended up paying a lot more money for it. that was hugely consequential for citigroup in its future because they never had the huge base of cheap deposits and the interest rate environment was essentially helping them stay afloat and print money. talking about the rivals here. they were always sub scale, the united states market. they've got a huge overseas empire of these sub scale, smaller retail businesses which they've largely exited but they were really kind of crippled. in that sense. and as you say, they've been dead money ever since then and they're trading for roughly what they traded for around the 2008 time frame, which is astounding. >> leslie, they made a very

conscious decision didn't they to sort of wind down their u.s. retail banking presence. you just don't see citibank locations around even in the new york market particularly. there are some, but not -- >> yeah. from a physical branch standpoint, that's true. of course, they've been divesting a lot of their international businesses. they're expecting to ipo their mexico business in about two years time. so it's really part of this slimmer, more focused organization. they're hoping that with driving key focuses and key competencies, they're really going to be able to boost that stock price. so far, it really remains to be scene. they've been transforming the business for years now as hugh alluded to. this idea that a post financial crisis citi has been in this mode of transformation. so this according to frazier, is the biggest one yet in terms of an overall reorganization.

we'll see if it's effective. >> jane frazier put in a structure put in place 20 years ago and the former and current executives i spoke to said basically you had country and division heads squabbling. you had behavior in which people could essentially behavior around the company and city, so you had a lot of dysfunction. she's getting good reviews for this change. i think the question is she's been ceo for two and a half years now. this structure has been there forever. it's been a known issue. why did it take this long for her to do these changes? >> as we look at the fall off in the stock price, it's roughly the time of the financial crisis. was that, was there a reverse stock split there or something? that it accounts for a lot of that? >> tyler, mostly it's their exposure to they went all in whole hog on cnbs.

a lot of these mortgage-backed securities in which pumped up their valuation for a time being. that was clearly a loser and when that balloon popped, they just never recovered. >> amazing to see how high the shares were once worth. leslie, do they remain an idiosyncratic case? morgan stanley seems to be doing well. citi really, this stock has been, it seems just kind of the more difficult story for so long now. >> it's definitely been a depressed stock and i would say it's an idiosyncratic case for certain reasons. wells fargo has had its chall challenges and scandals. so overall, the banking industry's experiencing a whole host of headwinds. it's been broadly as a group trading lower since the end of july when end game rules were

first announced or first revealed. that would increase their capital requirements. as well as just the overall macro economic picture hasn't necessarily be favorable for the banks as a whole, but in terms of just idiosyncratic management of the business, citi is definitely facing its own headwinds and they're hoping this restructuring is able to combat some of those pressures but it's all part of this idea of streamlining, folkcusing the driving those businesses they think can help boost the stock price in the future. we'll see if it works this time around but i think investors have been patient that have been in the stock for a while and we'll see how long that lasts. >> all right, folks. thanks very much. you see the stock a little higher today. thank you. coming up, we'll get some technical support. we had our technician check the charts on some stocks not feeling the love from analysts right now. "power lunch" will be right back. not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played.

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welcome back to "power lunch." time for some technical support. cnbc is out with a screener of the most expensive stocks that analysts don't seem to love.

here is the criteria. less than half the analysts covering it say it is a buy, hard to find and at or above consensus price target the next 12 months. we'll see if jessica is as bearish, the director of products with options play. welcome. first one not surprisingly i've heard more excitement for this lately. ibm. what do you see? >> i think ibm is very interesting. we are at that pivotal moment. i am bullish and this is the one from the list i would personally buy. my key level is 135. it is right about here. what is important about 135, you can see this consistent area of basically supply meaning when it comes up here and here and here and here we weren't unable to overcome that. we want to be sure we have those areas of supply become an area of demand. we shifted over to buying which is a good sign, number one. first before that happened we look at the 200-weekly moving

average i want to see a stock move above that. once it triggers my bullish trend and longer-term view i want to see consistent higher lows, higher highs. the danger for my traders right now, this is at the higher end of that higher high. i would expect a retracement perhaps down just a short term like we have bear market rallies. they also happen in the declines. that could happen. my support again is that 135 line. i want to make sure that is not breached because that is my third period of a bull case. >> interesting. so basically as much as you look at this and say that is now turning into support if we can't hold it how long do you wait to find out, a day, a week, a month? >> such a wonderful question, kelly. this is a weekly chart. i am looking for weekly closes. if it goes below it that is okay. i accept that. there is price action. however a weekly close below that is a sign of weakness and that would be areas of concern. however, this is more than one point that points to bullish sentiment within ibm.

>> fascinating. with that kind of tease what we might think of the next to let's move on to intel. when we show this chart what due see here? >> intel is very interesting. we are actually at a pivotal moment. >> when we talk about supply and demand, you can bring that fundamental, the 40 line is what i am really paying attention to. this was an area of demand it was supported, the stock went back higher. however as soon as we breached it notice how we fall and fell drastically. now we are getting those series of higher lows, higher highs, but we've reached that critical moment of 40. if we do not overcome that i expect we'll have valuation and the psychological side of trading and the market comes into play. this is a five year view. if you purchased intc at $40 a share there are so many shares existing you might need break

even and you say you know what? i want to get out of this. >> so would you take one week we trade above 40 as a good sign, the weekly close i mean? >> yeah. one week is a good sign. i want to see additional confirmation though. there is trend strength with standard deev yags. you think about the mass of that and that is great. you want consistently weekly closes. >> bearish or unless we see that break up. then progressive. don't get mad at us over here. look. i don't know the technical jagran. this looks like a rising trend to me. what concerns you here? >> i am a bear for progressive. we are looking at the 26 weekly moving averages and the weekly averages i look at in that transition from the weekly view are quarterly. the market looks at prices from a quarterly perspective and we have data coming out and 26 represents two weeks. we breached below that. that is the indication of just

weakness of the trend. the dow theory tells us there are periods of consolidation with the trend reversal and that is what i see right here. i want to be sure that again there is a target here. i want a higher high. we are not beginning to do higher highs. we are looking for a breach of this lower low and this area of consolidation that i am concerned with. the trend strength is weakening with all of the other indicators and what is really concerning. not only do we look at the areas of supply and demand to define our resistance and price targets what i am really concerned with in addition to that were trend strength. >> sorry flo and all the others, what are their names, members of the family during the pandemic. thanks so much. we appreciate it today. jessica with our technical report >> i understood that. that was really good. >> thank you. >> closing time.

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all right. we've got less than two minutes in the program and a number of stories we want to get to. the first one is lyft has unveiled a new feature that helps match women and nonbinary drivers and riders in an effort to improve safety and peace of mind during rides. so the program is called women plus connect. it's rolling out today in chicago, phoenix, and san diego,

san francisco with plans to go eventually nationwide. i think this is the case of a company listening to its customers who are putting safety at a high up on their agenda >> i suppose. and the after work happy hour may be over as we know it. "the wall street journal" highlighting that more and more workers are choosing to clock out and rather than socialize at 5:00 p.m. according to consumer analytics firm after dinner down 40% and one interesting number i liked with all the new pet owners they got to get home. >> they got to get home to watch their pets. people have gotten accustomed to working at home. but if you go into manhattan on a -- >> it's busy right now. busier than years. >> yeah. there are a lot of people out at the bars. >> california is also close to banning heavy duty driverless trucks on state highways. the bill easily passed both houses. now it is up to governor gavin newsom. it would require trucks weighing 10,000 pounds to have human safety drivers in the cab.

>> that makes perfect sense to me. >> yeah. >> the fully autonomous stuff i'm not sure it is there yet. >> this is the place where san francisco is letting waymo and those places do experimenting. on the other hand they are cracking down more heavily. so they are all over the place. >> dow is down 75 points right now. thanks for watching "power lunch." >> we turned sharply lower at least for the average. can the s&p hold it? it is up a couple points right now. "closing bell" begins now. >> thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell" right here at the new york stock exchange this make or break hour begins while stocks are largely hanging in there but a lot of volatility just within the last 15 minutes so it is going to be a wild ride over the final hour of trade. all of this coming of course after the slightly hotter than expected read on inflation. there is your score card with 60 mints to go. don't look away though because it could change at any moment. the dow, well, it dipped lower within the last hour. it was down more than a hundred a