there's a lot wrapped up here in how the markets and how potential other ipos might or might not come to market. >> not to mention what it means for soft bank and capital raise in the public markets, as they were fast and furious for so many years. >> chances are, you're going to get diluted if you buy this before too long. >> all right, well, it was a mixed picture for the markets today, the s&p finished the day up slightly. the dow slightly lower. the nasdaq higher, too. >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. a streaming glitch. shares of netflix dropping as its finance chief warns as the ad tier hasn't beefed up revenues yet. w are shares in for a permanent chill? plus, we're counting down to the biggest ipo of the year. what can we expect when arm trades tomorrow? and what kind of precedent will

it set? and later, d.c. takes on a.i. the tech execs on capitol hill today as lawmakers explore potential regulation of this industry. what they had to say, and what they hope to accomplish. i'm melissa lee, coming live from studio b at the nasdaq market site. on our special guest tonight, lori cave cena from rbc capital markets. we start off with breaking news on the arm ipo. leslie has the details. >> hey, melissa. arm pricing its ipo at $51 per share. that is at the high end of the range, an offering size of $4.9 billion and a fully diluted valuation of $54.5 billion. all of that according to a source familiar with the matter. earlier in the hour, we were told that arm and its advisers were leaning toward a $52 per share ipo pricing, and that was pretty much baked in, but over the course of the hour, with

those pricing discussions, ultimately took a more conservative approach at that $51 per share, which is at the high end of the range, but not above it, so, $51 per share for this offering. i'm told by people familiar with the matter there should be a release out momentarily that says that $51 number. but gerngagain, largest ipo in several years and it will be a much anticipated debut when it is listed on the nasdaq tomorrow morning. >> all right, leslie, thank you. top of the range. it's already gotten a buy rating from wall street, not really surprising. wall street loves to jump all over this stuff. new street initiating it with a buy rating of $59 price target. what do you think this means for new issues in the pipe? >> there's a lot of buzz around the semis, a lot of buzz around a.i., this is not an a.i. company, but i think that's sort

of -- they're getting thrown into the mix. people are excited. genuinely excited about tech. so i think tech ipo, everything, mixture, it's a confluence of events, so, i think it's good for the ipo market, not necessarily -- i wouldn't be jumping on this one right now. i think that ipos just have the propensity to pop on the day that they come out, which is great, but i think they always receive from there, but it's great for the ipo market. >> we'll have much more on arm later on in the show. let's get to netflix here. shares getting chilled in a big way -- get it. after a warning from its cfo, the stock dropping 5%, closing near the lows of the day, even as the s&p nasdaqed gains. spencer newman said the ad tier hasn't contributed to revenues yet. he lowered margin guidance for the third quarter. netflix was the worst performer in the nasdaq 100 today and the fifth-worst in the s&p. shares are down 15% from the

highs of the year, so, in a week where disney's legacy challenges have been front and center, and fears about the bundle are all taking center stage, where do netflix's issues fit into this puzzle? karen, what do you think? >> i think, well, netflix is by far in the strongest position, so -- i mean, you can make a case this is actually a positive, in that they can afford to have the ad-supported tiers move more slowly or not gain as much traction, but you think about disney just announced, right, theirs. you have to think that netflix is going to be as good as anybody at rolling out an ad-supported tier, so -- it's just netflix valuation is very high relative to the others, but i think -- it deserves it. it's a premium company, it deserves that. i've been waiting and waiting to buy some, and thought i missed it a couple weeks ago, so, i would be a buyer here, could it trade lower, of course, but i think it's -- i think it's sort of, we talk about demand delayed

versus denied, i think that delayed and they deserve this multiple. >> part of this is just a mix problem, most of the growth comes from international, internationally, the average revenue per member is lower, so, that's -- that's the way the business is right now. >> yeah, i mean, but you still have the growth. and that's really the issue, when it comes down to margins. i tend to agree with karen, you might want to get in here if you have been wanting to own the stock andn haven't gotten the chance. i don't really see a catalyst for a move higher in the near term. that's where you're seeingthe price action that we saw today, which is, the things we thought were going to be tailwinds, the passport password sharing crackdown and the ad-supported tier aren't materializing like we expected them to. there's going to be a long pregnant pause, if you will. you won't have to rush out and buy the stock necessarily tomorrow, but i think it will provide an entry point. but with that said, there has been decent resistance at that

450 level. i would wait for it to establish a price point before jumping in. >> so, i feel like we're hearing the same story over and over again when it comes to the megacap growth stocks, where the stories are still in tact, and premium stories, they're very much intact long-term, but we have the short-term valuations and crowding problems. we're still very much in the early days of seeing some of that rectified. we just have to let this play out, so, i feel like there's longer term opportunity, but shorter term trepidation. >> to lori's point, it almost seems like investors got ahead of themselves in the expectations they had in terms of these catalysts, like the ad-supported tier. it's still there, the story is still there, but it's not happening as quickly as had been anticipated. and that's sort of -- >> yeah, and i think the story was the password sharing, and then, it was the writers' strike, that was a tailwind to it. to bonawyn's point, we're running into that area, back from february 2022, but i think that we're running out of catalysts to push the -- push

the market higher there, so, i would be neutral to negative on price action going forward. >> i do think some of the competitors were weakened by what happened. and so, that's important. we talked about them being the beneficiary of consolidation or some just leaving the business, so, i think that dynamic is accelerating. >> right. and the fact that netflix, and this is going to be a shock compared to what we were talking about way back when, the problem that netflix has is debt -- that is not a problem with netflix anymore, and that is a great advantage that they have compared to its competitors, it is well capitalized. the balance sheet is good. >> yeah, but it would be punished a lot more if you hate more stagnant growth with that debt load, right? so, i agree, but that sort of tins the cup both ways. if you are using debt to propel growth forward, that's understanding. if you have stagnating growth and a more challenged balance sheet, i don't think the valuation would hold up. >> but that's not netflix,

right? >> netflix balance sheet is in good shape. >> good shape at this point. it's change dramatically. >> i'm saying that if that had not been the case, this slowing growth would -- >> there would be -- the other thing that netflix, the cfo said, they weren't going to pay a lot for live sports, that's just something that they cannot see being worthwhile in terms of how much they would have to spend to get that live franchise, which i thought was interesting. >> if you look at the jets game on "monday night football," i think that was the largest viewed game on espn. so, we still are a live tv biased audience, but it depends on -- we don't want to watch it live. we want to tape it. sports, you have to watch it live. and i think -- it's only increasing, so, i think that could be a mistake for them not to dabble in that area. >> all right, our next guest has one of the highest netflix price targets on the street. let's bring in mark mahaney. what is your perspective on what netflix guided on today? >> i think the two negatives

were the -- gradually less than 300 bips of operating margin expansion. that's what the company has done, and the cfo went out of his way to say they're not going to grow at that fast of a clip going forward. so, the most bullish estimates out there would have had that in there. the real guidance is maybe two to three points, so, there's certainly plenty of leverage for. that and there's debate around the average revenue per member, and if that was a little soft. i thought the language was extremely vague. i think if you are going to say something specific, i'd pay attention to it. if it's vague, i won't. the real key was the operating margin, cautious, or slightly less bullish commentary. >> i felt that was glass half full/glass half empty perspective. the cfo was making the point that sometimes you don't want to grow at that rate, because you want to favor growth as opposed

to maximizing margins, so you view it as a negative? >> ah -- yeah, i mean, in terms of where -- what it means is that there's probably less upside to 20 bucks of earnings in 2025. that's how i think about it. the street is kind of at $19.30. i think real bulls on the stock are higher than that, probably closer to $21, so, maybe you trim down that $21 . let me also step back on netflix. you know, near-term, the writers' strike is a negative for netflix. it's less of a negative than the other streamers and studios, but it does create these kind of content holes, these content gaps, and it pushes out when they can implement the next price increase, and so, i -- you know, i worry about that. near-term, kind of having a little bit of an air pocket, but longer term, i really like the new initiatives, the paid sharing, which is well-known by the market, but what is still underappreciated is the rollout of this ad-supported offering.

they just took their tam and expanded it. hard to say how much, maybe it's 10%, 30%, but they took their core product, cut it by 30%. that means you're going to get a lot more incremental subs, and so, i want to be long for that reason. >> mark, it's karen, thanks for being on. i know you are bullish, very bullish now, what do you think is the right multiple for clearly, they are number one by a very wide margin, but at some point, things get too expensive, and i'm wonder, did it come down enough to jump in here? i know you have a much higher price target. 6. >> yeah, and just to put it in context, amongst the megacaps, my favorites here, uber, amazon, and meta. i really like them. they have some nice product cycles right here, right now. i think you are a little bit further out with netflix. you can look at netflix really easily, the last 12 months, that's when i upgraded. you can look at pe, gap pe. if you can do $20 in gap

earnings, what's the market going to pay for that? it's currently paying more than that now, i assume a little bit of fade in the multiple, but this is a company that's going to give you mid-teens revenue growth, some margin expansion, and they're going to be buying back stock that gives you this earnings algorithm of 20%, 25%. i think the market pays 25 times for that. i see the path to $500. does that make it a screaming buy here at 410, no, but below 400 would make it a really aggressive buy. >> what are some of the data points that you look at, mark, to gauge whether or not there will be more tradedown or even cancellations for netflix as, you know, there's mounti ing concerns about the consumer. we've heard about the tradedown effect, i don't know, maybe netflix is like toilet paper, you can't live without it. but it does seem like, you know, you're paying for it and you might scrutinize what you're paying for in the future? >> boy, i -- there's a lot of things -- i could hit that a lot of different ways. look, when we do our survey

work, we see a mature u.s. market. i mean, you know, you see the satisfaction scores are lower in the u.s. than they are in international markets. indications of churn are higher. i think you have 80 million users of netflix in the u.s. 80 million households, so, you have the vast majority of the households. the growth has to come in international marks, so, that's where we do all this survey work. what we're seeing so far is that kind of the push-back on the implied price increase, which is really what, you know, the paid sharing crackdown was, kind of the cancel rage is starting to come down, and we look at these markets like mexico or japan or germany or the uk, satisfaction rates are higher, and it's partly because i just think there's less at-home entertainment options if you leave the u.s. that doesn't hold for every market, i know, but for the vast majority of markets, it does, and that's where the secret sauce is for netflix. and then you add in the ad-supported offering, there's another leg of growth here to netflix. and we haven't had a megahit out of netflix in the last 12 months

or something like that. when is the next "squid games?" they have so many shots on goal that every 12 months or something, we're going to find something really exciting that just blows out, so, i just want to be long in front of that, too. >> yeah, and it doesn't matter, i mean, the writers strike doesn't impact that, right? "squid games" came from south korea. thank you for joining us. always good to get your perspective. so, in terms of the big tech stocks, lori, do you view them as defensive? the ones that are executing, the ones that people love, the ones that are in the top, you know, whatever, of tech stocks? >> they're somewhere in between defensive and cyclicality. unfor unfortunately, i think that's the price we pay for having a short, shallow, or skipped recession. i think there are technical problems with the growth trade we have to go through, and one of the reasons i'm reluctant to drop that overweight for a short-term trade is because i do

think the economic environment is not going to be that fabulous for a couple of years or so, so, i think people, you know, you've got to let this play out. you have to let the valuations correct. you have to go through some of these glitches in the narratives and then you want to own them for the longer term. gdp is expected to be less than 12%, so, you've got some time you're going to want to be in these things. >> all right, a news alert on the uaw negotiations. phil? >> melissa, i want to show you what's going on right now. shawn fain is holding one of his regular facebook live broadcasts, if you will. it's not a broadcast, it's on facebook live, where he updates the membership about where things stand with the negotiations, with the big three. remember, we are just over one day away from the deadline of 11:59 p.m. thursday night, and shawn fain has been very clear, in fact, we talked with him on "squawk box" this morning, if there is not an agreement, they're not just going to extend these contracts as they have sometimes done in the past, there will be strikes. and where might they strike?

increasingly, it looks like they're going to do targeted strikes. that would mean that you have fewer members of the uaw who go on strike, but if you hit a key place, like a transmission or an engine plant and three really stand out for the big three, you're talking about ford's engine and transmission plant right outside of detroit here, gm has a transmission plant in toledo. and then you have the stellantis transmission and engine faci facilities down in kokomo, indiana. stellantis says our focus remains in bargaining in good faith to have a tentative agreement on the table before tomorrow's deadline. the future of our represented employees and their families deserves nothing less. as you look at shares of ford, gm, and stellantis, all of them, by the way, have been moving higher, not a lot, but a little bit higher over the last couple of days, as some investors believe that we are close to seeing the bottom in terms of an impact, even if there is a

strike. now, if it's a long-term one, it's a far different story. keep in mind, when you look at those engine and transmission facilities, melissa, you're looking at maybe 12,000 workers. maybe 12,000, not just at those facilities, but who are part of engine and transmission production, but they could have a huge impact in terms of shutting down the broader companies. >> how long does -- i don't know, how long can it go on, the strike at the transmission plants, before it -- >> final assembly? in a day or two. day or two. >> like a day? >> in this day in age, we have just in time manufacturing, yeah, it won't take long. >> all right. phil, thank you. >> you bet. >> phil lebeau. how important is this, karen, to gm? >> ah -- i think it clearly it's weighing on the stock. is it fully priced in? i kind of hope so. it's the expectation. more likely than not, we're going to see a strike. it just epends on the duration of the strike more than how --

what they end up paying, ultimately. >> yeah, and we'll goat the airlines, part of american airlines guide lower was the labor costs associated with the pilots agreement. >> yeah. this is a problem that you have with gm, both gm and ford, and if you look at it as a whole, as adam jonas did, it's not a lot of money when you look at it on a percentage over global labor costs, but it's still an overhang for the stock that you don't get with a tesla or a rivian, and the one-month and three-month performance, ford, gm, tesla, rivian, you can see why they've outperformed. moderna's stock rising as the company proves it is more than just the covid vaccine. what the ceo has to say. but first, a live look at capitol hill, where top tech titans talked a.i.nd a regulation. a top meta executive joins us for the tiktok on what happened. much more fm "fast money" in tw.

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plus, ask how to get one free line of unlimited mobile. comcast business, powering possibilities. here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch, it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. i think the probability of there being an a.i. regulatory agency that stands on its own to the faa or fcc is likely at some point. >> you think so? >> i think so. now, the -- the reason that i've been such an advocate for a.i.

safety in advance of sort of anything terrible happening is that i think the consequences of a.i. going wrong are severe. so, we have to be proactive rather than reactive. >> that was a stern warning from elon musk on what could potentially go wrong with a.i. he spoke with our eamon javers today, as top tech tie lands met on capital hill to talk about potential regulation. for more on what's ahead, let's go to eamon, who is with meta's president of glowal affairs. eamon? >> that's right, melissa. i'm with nick klegg. you just emerged from this meeting, just a few steps from where we're standing here. you said there were some surprising conversations between the tech ceo inside that room. tell me what happened behind closed doors. >> i think first it was a pretty sort of new precedent to have so many different companies who, you know, in their day jobs are competitors with each other, sitting around the same table. not just amongst themselves, but with obviously politicians,

senators, and folks from civil society. some are more pessimistic about a.i., others are more optimistic. but everybody realized this is a foundational technology. it's not a new app, it's not a new piece of hardware. this will affect and touch every single aspect of our lives over time. and therefore, if you want to do anything about it, if you want to get the best out of it while mitigating against the worst, you've got to do that together, and i think this is an important process, because everyone's trying to kind of feel their way to work out where the guardrails should be, whether regulation should play a role. >> what was the most surprising thing that happened in that room. i mean, you had mark zuckerberg, obviously your boss, elon musk, bill gates, titans in that room. >> i think the most striking thing is everybody recognizes that the u.s. is in the lead. the u.s. is clearly in the lead, big american companies have got the finance, they've got the data, they've got the computing power, the data to build the

large language models and doing so with far greater innovation than anywhere else in the world. the question is, how do you maintain american leadership? and one thing that certainly, you know, people like us at meta and many others at that table feel that the more you can -- not always, sometimes it's not sensible to do so, but the more you can share that technology, the more you can open source it, so that people start operating on the kind of standards and values that you've enshrined in that technology, the better it is for american leadership going forward. >> and we were told that mark zuckerberg made that point in the room about open source. what else did he tell that group? >> well, you know, i think we have to recognize that if you want to innovate safely, actually doing it openly is the best way that you can get, you know, researchers and others to stress test the -- the models that you're producing. so, for instance, meta and many of those companies in that room, we all submitted our latest large language models a few weeks ago so hackers could do

their best, or, rather, do their worst to try to break the systems and stress test them. so, through that kind of process, that culture of open inin n inknow vags, there's a long american tradition, you actually make the system not only more ingenious and cutting edge, but you make them safer, as well. >> do the tech ceos get to spend much time with each other like they did today? seems like they have enormous staffs around them, entourages everywhere they go. do they get to do this kind of face-to-face interaction? >> of course, they see each other and see each other at conferences and meetings, but i think it was a pretty unusual thing. and it was particularly unusual that it was not just the tech ceos being brought together, but also, you know, folks from very different perspectives, from civil society and so on. and, of course, leading senators. that was unusual, and it's the kind of right approach at this early stage, because if you're going to, you know, if senators are going to regulate, they need to be quite open in receiving

input about where they should regulate. >> right. i think melissa lee in studio has a couple of questions. go ahead. >> nick, you are speaking from a position of power, basically, i mean, you are one of the biggest tech companies in the united states. do you think if there were social media regulatory agency, stand alone agency at the home that meta was facebook and being created that we would have these social media, you know, giants today in the united states? obviously, the criticism of all of this is that it will prevent the next big a.i. company, and that could be a startup that may not exist right now, from actually coming to market? >> yeah, i think that's always the danger of overregulating or regulating too kind of preemptively, that you benefit the incumbents, and you create kind of advantage for the big companies that already move forward and you make it harder for new entrants and new

competitors to challenge them. it's something that's kind of regulatory capture. that's the danger. but in this area now, you've got a number of american companies who are innovating in their own kind of slightly different ways, but all in the same direction, which is developing these generative a.i. tools, they're doing it in a much more ingenious way than anything you can see in china or the european union at the moment, so, the question is, how do you continue with that tradition of great american innovation? my view, certainly, is the more you do that by sharing the technology, so that more and more people actually use it, the -- you're not giving it away, you're entrenching the values that have made the american tech sector so strong. >> thank you for joining us. >> i'm sorry, melissa, one more question. >> it was sort of a for fun question, but i'm wondering if you've had the conversation with

mark about what is the scenario, the realistic scenario today that frightenings him about a.i.? is there something in particular that sort of keeps him up at night so to speak? >> i think if these a.i. systems, and it's a big if, they become so powerful that they develop a kind of autonomy of their own, a kind of mind of their own, they can, you know, replicate themselves, they can exfill trait data, i think then we're in a completely different kind of ball game. because at the moment, the systems, they're powerful, but they're pattern recognition systems. they're not -- they're not like robots with glaring red eyes, they don't have any personality themselves. i think if you get to that, what some people call artificial general intelligence, then i think everyone accepts you're in a different ball game and you need to have proper scrutiny, proper controls, and proper surveillance of those very powerful systems. if they emerge in the future. >> well, nick, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> melissa, back over to you.

>> all right, thank you, eamon. thank you, nick. that's a frightening scenario. >> that's not fun. >> no, notal all. and that's what eamon musk specifically is afraid of, when these machines really start thinking like humans. that's when it gets scary. >> well, he mentioned kind of blocking and pattern recognition. if you compare this to chess, it's similar, with the a.i. there. you have a ton of scenarios that you run through and they are essentially able to to analysis and see what the probability of x, y, z happening. being able to actually operate independently and form thought, opinions, things of that nature is very terrifying. i think what it's going to come down to is finding that right balance between the diynamisn needed. having them understand how these things operate and building the stluk sure around it, and al allowing enough wiggle room so that you don't stifle

innovation. >> does this come down to nvidia continues to win? >> a.i. will march forward and chips will be needed. >> chips will be needed. power will be needed. yes. >> and they are the only ones that are monetizing it now to begin with. but that was a really prescient call that you made, the ones that are sitting in that room are trying to make the regulation that will actually foster their further success going forward, so, it's like a billionaire, every billionaire i know wants to pay more in taxes. but they don't remember when they were not a billionaire and they were struggling, they wanted to pay the least amount of taxes. it's still meta's game to win. that's why the stock is up 150% year to date. coming up, it wasn't just temperatures rising in august. energy prices driving inflation to its highest print of the year. what it means for the market and the fed, plus, all eyes on arm. we're diving deeper into the biggest offering of the year and taking a look at the other opportunities in the ipo mkeart. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square.

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welcome back to "fast money." investors digesting a hotter than expected cpi report this morning. the consumer price index rising 0.6% in august, the biggest monthly gain on the year. stocks holding up fairly well after the numbers crossed, but losing steam throughout the day. the s&p up a tenth of a percent, and the nasdaq climbing nearly three-tenths of a percent. big names trading near records. shares of amazon trading at a 52-week high. walmart hits an all-time high. and a look at starbucks. former ceo howard shuchultz is stepping down from its board of directors. what was your impression of cpi?

>> so, our economists said this doesn't really change the narrative for them with regards to the fed, and there had been -- i know it was technically hot, but there have been understanding that energy prices were going to contribute to pressure here and that's absolutely what you saw with the motor fuel component and the various transportation-related games popping. i think the headline was maybe not so great in terms of the news stories that were written, but i don't think there was any surprise and the market took it in stride. >> walmart, all-time high. is it expensive at this point? >> yes, it is, actually. on the one hand, they're the beneficiary of the consumer trading down, but it is kind of high. you know, i'm long target and short walmart, but -- one other thing, though, about this cpi, i always find it so interesting that they take out things that -- why would you take that out. >> actually need to live. >> yes. like food and energy. >> how is that an indicator -- >> because they were supposed to

be transitory until they're not. >> anything in there that gets hot becomes a transitory thing? >> yeah. >> i mean, didn'i don't know. this has been the game for a long time and i don't think it's going to change, but i find it a little ridiculous. coming up. american airlines slashing profit expectations for the quarter. we'll tell you how much more altitude options traders think this name could lose. but first, all eyes on arm. shares set to make their nasdaq debut tomorrow. and what to expect from other ipos this year. stay tuned.

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welcome back to "fast money." as we told you at the top of the hour, arm holdings pricing its ipo at $51 a share. it sets the chip designer up to be one of the biggest market debuts in years. our leslie picker is here with the very latest. leslie? >> hey, mel. arm pricing its ipo at $51 per share, that's the high end of the range. it has been considering an above range price, and earlier we said $52 would be it. they have finalized pricing at

$51, a press release was sent out just moments ago detailing that $51 per share pricing. and at that price, soft bank is generating about 4.9 billion in proceeds from this offering, and the valuation is $54.5 billion on a fully diluted basis. so, that's about 100 times last year's earnings, more than double the value to other chip designers. and investors have had a mixed reaction here, partly due to that valuation, the risks surrounding the overall size of the deal. the performance of other ofsoft bank ipos, additional shares that could come down the road as soft bank continues to sell down its stake. and then, there's the obstacle arm faces to be add into the major indexes which can be a nice tailwind for new issued companies. now, there are some cornerstone investors here, nvidia, amd, apple, intel, google and s samsung. each have indicated interest of buy

buying, leaving $4 billion for everybody else, that $51 price. shares will be listed under a.r.m., expected to make their debut tonight. melissa? >>les leslie, thank you. jonathan morgan is joining us now from the edge group. great to have you with us. you actually say that arm could suffer the same fate as uber which is note a good one, it peaked an then took a long time for it to recover back to near its ipo price. why do you think it could follow the same pattern? >> yeah, so, i think for us, we're looking at this ipo coming out tomorrow in two different phases, or two takeaways. a lot of the ipos have been reduced to selling the company at its highest possible price. so, you know, raising as much capital as possible, making as much money for the owners, and for us, as a retail investor, your investors on the show, that doesn't sound like a great

investment we want to get in on day one. so, there are going to be certain hurdles around that, so, you mentioned uber, being a situation where it took awhile for it to even climb back to its ipo price. lyft is another one, rivian, i don't think it's even recovered since its recent listing. so, that's a reason why there is a pause to be cautious on day one for this stock, and the second takeaway, i mentioned there are two, is that from what i'm hearing from speaking to our clients, there is an appetite for new big situations on the market. so, yes, that's why this is so oversubscribed at the moment, but you probably might be surprised to hear, but we're covering all listings, even spin-offs, and there's going to be about eight global spinoffs taking place, just in the month of auction, so, hence we remain cautious. there's going to be more opportunities to look at

interesting companies coming down the pike. >> how do you think about the arm ipo being a barometer for other new issues? it's a very sort of specific situation where soft bank still owns 90% of the company, it had been public before, taken private, now public again. versus, you know, a new issue that is a company that's never been public, that has, you know, experienced, just, basically from the startup phase to issuance. >> so, from our standpoint, i think we're looking at a it just purely on the market up in terms of the valuation. so, i think from our standpoint, we are going to see more ipos, because of the appetite of the market, so, recently while, yes, this is going to be the first issuance, that was canceled in 2022, but now looking to bring that back up to the market, i think there's a parallel between what we're seeing with the spin-off market, where there was

only one really big listing throughout the whole year, above 10 plus billion and now you're seeing names like arm coming out at 50 plus, you are going to see more issuance coming down the pike. >> so, which ones are you looking in the pipe as the next ones, you know, we should sort of compare it to? how well arm did? >> so, i would say in terms of some of the larger names coming up, like you mentioned, we like newly listed companies, so, on the spin-off front, they're looking to spin-off their water quality and product identification business, that's going to be roughly around 17 to 18 billion market capital on listing. that is going to be determined by the market, what price is going to be listed at, versus the ipo market, where there's one price and one buy, there's

no averaging down. so, we will see when issue trade is taking place end of this month. it will list early october, october 2nd. that's one we like a lot. especially since the value creation that they have done at danaher. and those eight situations i mentioned in october doesn't even include 3m and ge coming up towards the end of the year. so, that's where we're saying we believe investors should be spending a lot of their time at this point, so, remain cautious. you could look at arm in the next couple of months outside of this ipo. >> all right, jonathan, thank you so much for being with us. jonathan morgan. >> thank you. >> i think that's an interesting point of view in terms of soft bank owns 90%. it is in their interest to sell at the highest price possible. >> to mark the rest. >> yes, exactly. >> i would think. >> i guess, but i mean, it's really where they ultimately exited that matters, though, right? i do think that credits an

overhang, right? to have this very large investor, multiple, actually, that one day will, you would imagine, do a secondary. >> right. oh, true. >> yeah, i think the fact that soft bank is a lead is one thing that definitely raises eyebrows. and you think about what's happening in valuations, early stage, growth stage phase, over the last year, 16 months, it is very much in their interest to try to return the fund. you have to make capital outlays, you have toen vest in new companies. i tend to agree with him. i would be a little bit cautious, given where we are in the economic cycle, and what are the reasons behind why you'd be pushing for a higher price? and i think there is a liquidity crunch, maybe not globally and worldwide, but definitely within that particular pocket. coming up, fasten your seat belts and return your tray table to its upright position, because shares of eranirneamic alis losing serious altitude today. the details in what is sending shares to a ground stop next. more "fast money" in two.

welcome back to "fast money." a bumpy ride for shares of american airlines today. the carrier dropping nearly 6% after slashing third quarter profit estimates due to higher fuel and labor costs.

american now expects s margins come in around 2.5%, down from earlier estimates between 4% and 5%. spirit, alaska, southwest have cut estimates for the quarter. those stocks all in the red today. we heard it again and again, you say this sometimes, when the stocks go down for the same reason over and over again. >> right. >> seems like that's happening. >> yeah, because some of the dynamics are so important to each of them, right? >> right. >> so -- yeah, they keep doing that and it doesn't seem like the jet fuel situation is getting any better right now. the other night i was wondering, well, maybe they're hedged, american's not, united is not, delta does have the refinery. i can't be better from the numbers they're putting out. it's up since then. >> yeah. lori, how do you think about this? >> this was a group we tracked, 60 different industries in the russell 3,000, just the rate of revisions as a gauge of kind of froth and sentiment or extreme, you know, kind of pessimism, and the passenger airlines group was looking extremely frothy earlier

this year and we've seen that revision indicator go from extreme exuberance just right back down to pessimism again. you are not quite back to typical troughs, but it's just been dramatic to me how sudden this has been, and i find it interesting, you know, people have been, you know, so worried about inflation resurging in part because of energy coming up, why wasn't this more on people's radars? i'm a little bit confused. >> because you have revenge travel and that's coming to the end of it, too. >> at the end of the day, it's about how much you earn, not how much revenue you take. >> options traders are betting american could lose even more throughout the end of the year. mike khouw has the action. >> yeah, traded about four times its average daily options volume. puts outpacing calls by two to one. one of the trades i was looking at, the december 12/10 put spread, paid 14 cents to buy 2,700 of those. that's targeting that $10 strike price, decline of 25% in the next three months. >> all right, thank you, mike. for more options action, tune into the full show that's

friday, 5:30 p.m. esche time. coming up, moderna shares gifting a shot in the arm, thanks to a promising flu shot trial result. we'll dive into whether this tape topper is the cure for your portfolio. and here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam. jim is chatting with the ceo of williams sonoma. more "fast money" in two. we'll dive into whether this

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welcome back to "fast money." moderna topping the tape today, jumping more than 3% as it shows that it's got more than just the covid jab. the drug maker announcing its experimental flu shot showed a stronger s er response than the latest vaccine in current trials. and even more products are in the pipeline. >> we are announcing today that by the end of the year, we'll also be in phase three lung cancer. so, think about it, given early phase one data we have in lung cancer, as well, we're going straight to phase three, because merck and us believe this should be additive, like we saw with melanoma. >> all this after the cdc

green-lit updated covid vaccines from moderna and pfizer. the price action in the stock swuz i was interesting. it was up 8% and 9% and went down to a gain of 3%. >> me dooa oderna has been sass with the covid vaccine, they're trying to change that. revenue dropped by 94% last quarter. they have a vested interest in re-establishing what they're there to do. so, is it cancer? is it covid? because the population doesn't want covid anymore. they want cancer treatment. and what they really want is obesity, so, if they would have -- >> obesity vaccine? >> an obesity or diabetes. this stock could have been up dramatically more. i don't -- if you look at the chart on this, it's been a declining trend forever. >> i mean, obesity is to pharma as a.i. is to technology.

>> 100%. >> but cancer is not too bad, if you can develop a cancer vaccine. >> right. >> you can't really laugh at that, bonawyn, but the problem is that there may be a gap in terms of the revenue pipeline, because you've got the drop in covid and these other ones are still -- even the flu shot, that's still -- that won't be approved until the end of the year or early next year. >> yeah, and i think the price of the stock is really telling you that. u it's roughly a quarter of the covid high. i think it's really only associated with covid vaccines, but the thing is, this mrna technology is being written off. i think this is an interesting entry point for the stock. $10 to $15 billion, 2025, i think makes for an interesting setup. up next, final trades. ve mog to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic

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final trade time. lori? >> i like energy here, earnings revisions are improving. valuations are cheap. >> bonawyn? >> listen, i think there's still trouble ahead. this is purely a technical call. 50% retracement makes for an interesting short-term trade. >> karen? >> yes, igv, if inflation is higher, that means multiple's a little lower, that would hit

igv, i'm short. >> steve? >> so, my final trade is going to be a would you rather. so, i love lilly, but i would rather amgen. >> anyway. lori, thank you so much for joining us. thank you for watching "fast n'goy." dot anywhere. "mad money" my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to a special west coast edition of "mad money," welcome welcome