it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." bouncing back from the hot inflation read. the wait is over as softbank backed a.r.m. prices at the top of the range with the stock starting to trade today and the biggest listing since rivian. the clock is ticking as union members prepare to walk off the job at ford and gm.

we look at the economic cost. and the fed next week, but today is all about the ecb and what could be its first rate pause after nine straight hikes. later, berkshire soaring a bit on one maker. it is thursday, september 4th and you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning. it is great to be with you. i'm seema mody in for holfrank hol holland. let's kickoff the day. we are looking at stocks indicated higher in had pre-market trade with the dow up 30 points. nasdaq up 35. s&p indicated opening by 8 points. let's see what is happening in the bond market which reacted to the hotter than expected cpi read yesterday with the 10-year treasury at 4.26%.

the 2-year treasury at 4.9. in the energy world, oil has been trading at the highest level since november of 2022. we are seeing gains once again this morning. wti at 89.29%. brent crude above $90 a barrel. turning to the top story. a.r.m. holding at the top of the expected range with trading set to begin on the nasdaq today. tech reporter arjun kharpal is here now with what we can expect and how big of a deal this is in the uk. >> seema, a.r.m. is pricing $51 a share at the top of the range giving it a valuation of $54.5 billion. a.r.m. raising $5 billion here and it will trade on the nasdaq under the ticker of a-r-m. the option of underwriters to

offer 40 million shares. it comes at an interesting time for softbank which is off the back of losses from the key vision fund at the time it is trying to shore up the balance sheet and go back on the offensive and begin investing in new areas like a.i. for a.r.m., it is facing a slowdown in smartphones. here in the uk, it is seen as a blow, seema, because this company is a british company which is listing in the u.s. and not on the london stock exchange. london stock exchange said it is still holding out hope that it could see a bdual listing for a.r.m. for this, investors need to grapple with a number of key risks for the company. the key risk is china.

h a.r.m. china has no control in this which is a risk. it warned on geopolitical risk and rising competition to the key chip architecture. demand is high here. reports that this ipo is over subs subscribed. and pricing at the top of the range. has softbank left money on the table? all eyes on the market today, seema. >> how would you say the valuation has evolved the last two-to-three years? >> softbank bought it for $23 billion. it is coming on the market for $54 billion. that is a good return. there were thoughts this could be priced north of $60 billion. this is coming into the time of caution for tech companies and high interest in a.i. with nvidia's blistering rally this

year. the difference is this is not an nvidia. this is a different prospect. it makes money from the architecture that underlines 99% of the world's smartphone chips. this is an area that is stagnating. this is area where growth is slowing and prospects are not looking so great. the question is how does a.r.m. find growth? architecture for chips for data center? that is the area they are looking into or is it in the automotive space? another area of promise. the valuation is an indication of the caution. it has not hit the high end that softbank has hoped for. it is recognizing all of the challenges, but the potential opportunities in the new areas, seema. >> we will see how it trades. arjun, thank you. cnbc will have complete coverage of the a.r.m. trading debut and the conversations with the a.r.m. ceo rene haas and founder

masayoshi son. let's get a check of the other top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> seema, good morning. it is coming down to the wire. united auto workers union making a final preparation to strike against ford and gm after contracts expire at 11:59 p.m. tonight. uaw president sean fain ruling out an extension. saying the walkouts are limited and offering to expand. gm says it continues to bargain in good faith and is making progress in key areas. we are wa-- we are watching shares of hp. berkshire sold 5.5 million

shares of hp since accumulating a 12% stake in the company last year. the move coming after hp lowered the profit forecast during the most recent quarter due to a slump in pc and china demand with shares down 19% since berkshire disclosed its stake. and x, formerly known as twitter, is agreeing to try to settle the lawsuits over mass layoffs. bloomberg says nearly 2,000 former employees are accusing x of multiple labor and workplace violations during the $44 billion takeover deal. last year, the lawyers for employees say x has failed to show up in court. seema. >> a story we will continue to watch. silvana, thank you. investors largely liking what they saw with the cpi

numbers with the core rate coming in just a touch higher yesterday than expected. that could solidify the bets the fed will hold the line on rates when jay powell and policymakers meet next week. traders are pricing in a 97% chance of no wrate hike this month. outlook is uncertain with a 40% odds of .25 hike next month. let's discuss that with mark avalone. >> good morning. >> what was your read with hotter than expected inflation report? specifically when you breakdown services where we saw hospitality and air fares come in higher than expected. >> it is not surprising to me. it is because we travel a lot and with we have client meetings and planes are sold out. the pricing is through the roof.

the wages that the workers at the organizations are earning are higher than the fed target. if you have higher costs and higher demand from consumers and then higher prices is the result. we looked at the higher oil prices and higher energy prices. if the fed takes oil out of the numbers and data crunching, oil is a part of other component parts throughout the cycle and economic chain. we are not surprised that inflation is stubborn. we expect it to remain so. >> what does it mean for investors if this raises the possibility of another interest rate hike in november? >> we think investors savvy to consider that as a possibility. i don't think we need to panic. i think we are nearing the end of the rate hike cycle. we will be higher for longer.

the fed will have to back off the 2% target and live with something between 2% and 3% and bond yields will steady and level out. stocks can do well in that vi environment. wit we don't have to push a panic button. >> what does it mean for banks which have under performed so far this year? we have seen profits hit by higher interest rates. if we are going to be living in this environment of high longer, how does that impact their path going forward? >> that is a good question. banks are at a conundrum here with the growing online deposit gathering machines of online banks. they have to compete at a detriment to the bottom line. what is almost worse is what is called the internal dis disintermediation. they are being forced to

re-price as consumers come to the branch or call and ask for the competitive rate. that crutcrushes the top margin while the economy is slowing and you may have credit problems. if you have credit losses combined with a lower gross margin on the deposit side, this will cause problems for the profits. their only way out as we see it right now is a massive merger wave which is long overdue. that will help with costs and that will help them be more competitive if a competitive financial services space. >> we are looking at the kbe down 16% in 2023. mark, thank you. a lot coming up on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. first, much on a.r.m.'s public market debut and the biggest risks for investors who plan to

get in early and what wall street can expect when christine lagarde releases her decision on the ecb. the top 100 financial advisers is out. we speak about one of the worst months for stocks. a very busy hour still ahead on "worldwide exchange." we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. (mom) bringing in a new roommate to save money - is that the plan? (dad) well we gotta find some way to save. so say hi to glen. from work. (glen) hey. that's my mom. (mom) i think i have a much better plan. we switch to myplan from verizon. we get exactly what we want and save big. all on the network we can count on. (daughter) it's a good plan (dad) that is a good plan.

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there's u.s. futures which

are higher. dow up 56 points at this hour. let's see how europe is shaping up as its trading day gets underway here. joumanna bercetche is in london with the early trade. joumanna. >> good morning, seema. it is a big day for europe. we have the ecb decision coming up later today. the market is 66% priced for a 25-basis point hike. this moved up a lot in the last couple days after the reuters report suggests they are looking to increase the inflation forecast which would give them an excuse to hike. going into that is a mixed picture. german index is down .10%. french index is down equally. the italian index is down 8 basis points. the ecb sent a letter criticizing the banking system in italy.

the italian banks have come under selling pressure. in the uk, a different reaction to yesterday. remember the gdp numbers came in disappointing for the month of july. today, however, we are seeing a positive price action on the back of kmcommodities. we are seeing a spike in the price of oil and basic resources. as for sectors, this is where leadership is coming from for europe as a whole. retail under puerperforming. autos. we talked about the address from the commission president with the state of the union. she said they would launch an investigation by the chinese government into ev makers. we heard retaliation from the chinese on that front. it seems as the auto sector is caught in the crossfire with the shots fired with the autos.

and oil and gas up 1.1%. utilities is up .70%. all eyes will be on the ecb decision in a few hours, seema. >> joumanna, thank you. joumanna bercetche. sticking with the overseas action, the new report showing u.s. firms are moving investment away from china due to pressure from the business environment. slumping economic recovery and ongoing tensions. capital investment fell $20 billion last year with countries investing in india and malaysia. this eincludes apple. cl joining me to discuss is zoe

liu. first is the news this week. mexico announced as our largest trading partner in the u.s. how does china respond to this with the idea that more companies are near shoring, but moving business to other countries? >> good morning, seema. good to see you. i also learn a lot from you as well. the news about mexico becoming our largest trading partner is bringing in a lot of noise because chinese companies have been moving to mexico to benefit with the free trade agreement with the united states. we are observing not just foreign companies trying to near shore or onshore, but chinese companies have been doing that as well. >> it is interesting. it comes at a time where the economic data has not held up

well. we expect industrial activity from beijing tomorrow. one of our guests spoke about this yesterday. >> i think the debate has always been trying to balance china with peak pessimism. tomorrow's number will be critical to try to figure out if the chinese economy is heading toward a steeper deflationary to the us. if you look at the consumer market or really anti-corruption

and people have been thinking about the government which is trying to stimulate the economy. why not just wait and if i wait, perhaps prices do lower. policies have been uncertain and it is very much deflationary. >> we haven't gotten that stimulus package many analysts expected. the policy meeting is next week. what wdo you think will happen? >> they are looking at geopolitics with russia or the relationship with taiwan. >> we will look forward to that. zoe lui, thank you. straight ahead on the show, weeding out the a.i. pretenders.

regulators cracking down on ashton kutcher nfts and getting into the top 20 club. those top trending stories coming up after a short break. people are excited about what ai will do for them. we're excited about what ai will do for business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by training ai with your data. when you watsonx your business, you can build ai to help coders code faster, customer service respond quicker, and employees handle repetitive tasks in less time. let's create ai that transforms business with watsonx.

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♪ these are the people, who help you stay well. ♪ ♪ searching lower prices, ♪ ♪ and brands you love on the shelves. ♪ behind the counter, or in the aisles, healthier's better when it happens together. cvs pharmacy. healthier happens together. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." investors gearing up for another look at inflation today on the heels of the cpi report. the data shows the fed showing challenges to tamp prices down

ahead of the policy meeting. that keeps them on their toes while navigating the environment. we have the fifth annual 100 list to help navigate the un uncertainty. we are joined by john mullin, number six on the list. john, welcome to "worldwide exchange." >> thank you, seema. >> great time to have you on given when we heard on the inflation front and producer prices today as we countdown to jay powell next week. what are you vadvising clients? >> it is a tough market. there is a lot of push and pull happening and inflation coming in hot. people are nervous. the thing we push to clients is we have an investment plan. stick with the plan. try to ignore the outside noise.

try to ignore the things that might make you nervous or might make a bad choice of investments. when you panic, you may make a mistake. >> how should you diversify? equities and bonds and u.s. and overseas? >> sure. for a long time after the global financial crisis, equities were the only place to be to get a return. recently with the rise in bond yields, we have been investing more in the bond market and re-balancing the traditional portfolio that you would have seen pre-2008. we are starting to add duration now which we see yields come up. as far as international versus domestic, we favor domestic over international. if it is international, it is developed over emerging. >> we have excitement growing in

the ipo market with a.r.m. set to go public today. biggest listing since rivian two years ago. how should investors play this one? >> we would probably stay to the side and see how it plays out. being such a hot ipo, it could be a big p ffirst day, but theyn pop and come back down. we would be nervous to chase it. >> back to inflation. i want to get your thoughts on the energy market. as the cpi report shows gas prices up 10% in the month of august. how do we expect consumers to respond? >> we think consumers are going to be really impacted by the rise of gas prices. you add that in with student loan repayments starting again and the pandemic-era policies have started to roll off. we think consumer spending is probably a little restrained in the months to come as you are spending more to fill up your

tank and repay your loans. credit car credit card balances are high. the consumer is in a tough spot right now. >> that is what we heard from the retailers this earnings season. we will see how that plays out. john, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> john mullen. join us on october 12th for conversations on what advisers can do now to position you for the best possible outcomes as we head into the last quarter of the year. scan the qr code on the screen or go to cnbc.com. > d still to come on the show, could the schultzera at starbucks be over or could it be another head fake? we'll be right back.

it's 5:30 a.m. in new york. still a lot ahead on "worldwide exchange." here's what's still on deck, get ready for the a.r.m. trading debut. down to the wire. auto workers preparing to hit the picket line hours from now as contract talks with detroit's big three remain at a standstill. the high price of renting a place in the big apple hit a ceiling after notching record

highs. it is thursday, september 14th. you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. welcome back. i'm seema mody in for frank holland. let's pick up the half hour with check of u.s. stock futures. dow coming off a two-day losing streak and yesterday's hotter than expected inflation read. the dow currently higher by 85 points. we could be in for a rebound. s&p up 14 points in pre-market trade. we will get another important read this morning for august ppi. economists are expecting a 0.4% month over month tick higher compared to 0.3% in july. ahead of that, take a look at what is happening in the bond market. 10-year treasury is currently trading at 4.25%. it really was the bond market that reacted to the cpi report

more than equities. part of the story of why inflation is high is gas and oil prices. look at what is happening in the energy market. brent crude is above $92 a barrel. wti is at the highest level since november of last year trading at $88.99. let's get a check of the corporate stories with silvana henao. >> seema, good morning. starbucks announcing former ceo howard schultz is leaving the board. the company says the change which is effective immediately was part of the planned transition. schultz stepped down as ceo in march will still hold the title of chairman emeritus. goldman sachs firing executives over policy violations. according to the reports, the leaders were part of the goldman

banking unit. the executives communicated on unauthorized channels and did not comply with the internal review. sky high rental prices in manhattan apparently hitting a ceiling. data from miller's showing the median rent for leases signed last month was $4,400. that is unchanged from the record in july. data showing the number of new leases in august dropped 14% from a year ago, seema. that seems really high. >> seema, thank you. to the top story. a.r.m. is expected to list at $51 a share with the valuation of $54 billion. that is the largest such public debut since rivian back in 2021. the big winner is softbank and

masoyoshi son. not to be outdone, a.r.m. customers like apple antd taiwa semiconductors will buy shares in the company. let's discuss and bring in sarah russo at ab bernstein and ben. ben, what do you think level perception is around a.r.m. ipo? >> overall, i think it is fully priced. it seems expensive to me. it is trading 20 times revenue. that is the same as nvidia. it is growing high single digits as nvidia at 100%. other industry comps trading at

12% to 15% and growing three times the pace of this ipo. also, i think the games that softbank played pre-ipo at $62 the billion relative to the $32 billion they bought it for seems to me it smacks of being fully priced with dgeopolitical and economic risks. >> sarah, how do you size that up with the exposure to china? >> they enter china in an interesting way in 2018. they had a strong business there. to protect that business, they went into a joint venture which think took a minority stake. a.r.m. china is the only way to sell in china. they get a 90% revenue share. they have no direct control over that entity. they don't maintain the customer

relationships in china. they continue to see 25% of revenue. the chinese seem to indicate they want a.r.m. to be there and access to the technology. a.r.m. continues to be successful. it is not without risk considering they don't have direct control over that entity. >> let's talk about it's core business, sara, where they are trying to found a bigger role in data centers. >> that is different than nvidia. a.r.m. specializes in low power cpus. they are going up against x x86. they worked with aws and aws licensed technology and now runs a good portion of the computer network. they are seeing a cost savings up to 40% of that.

a.r.m. has a good opportunity working with the startup doing a.r.m. for the data centers so you don't have to design your own chips. they are seeing did success with other players getting into the space. we like this opportunity longer term. this is a small part of the revenue for them. >> ben, how much of the conversation around a.r.m. is centered on the opportunity with artificial intelligence? >> to me, it still feels like hype. they are not deriving revenue from the a.i. side of things. sara mentioned there is room to run in the auto space and cloud. they are already 99% exposed to the consumer handset market. that looks to see declines and slow growth at 66. where we are most excited is in the cloud and a.i. space. again, they are projecting they

will be growing and this is a business that increases revenue ten-fold. i see that challenge. they have huge concentration risk in china with the unreliable partner sdplchlt satelli -- partner. >> sara, that sets up a nice opening for a.r.m. today. >> yes. people are excited about the ipo. there is a lot of fondness for the uk investors who know this company before and excited to see it come back to market. this is an opportunity for people to invest in the industry. there is growth here. i agree with ben it feels a bit full val an uation. >> sara, great to see you. ben, thank you. we'll be watching. take care. cnbc will have complete coverage of a.r.m. trading debut, including the conversations with

the a.r.m. ceo rene haas and then masayoshi son at 9:00 p.m. ri bcoming up on the show, apple fingack at the latest crackdown out of europe over sales of one of its most popular devices. we'll be back in a moment. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc.

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to out perform. the stock following the analyst day showing attractive entry point for investors. jeffries hiking metlife to buy. the stock's year to date performance compared to peers has been stable and the company has generated improvement in excess capital above competitors. shares up 1% right now. and wolfe research raising etsy to growth. it should improve with the mack -- macro recovery. shares up over 3%. time for the global briefing. here is what is happening outside of the u.s. beijing calling out the european commission over the investigation into china's electric vehicle industry and state subsidies that support it. the chinese ministry of commerce says this is a protectionist act

that will disrupt the global auto industry and supply chain. investors getting ready for the latest rate decision from the ecb. the economists polled expects the bank to keep rates unchanged at 3.75% despite inflation still running well above its target. the ecb has raised rates nine straight meetings in a row. applearle firing back after sales stop of the iphone 12 over exposure limits to radiation. iphone 12 was certified by multiple bodies as compliant with radiation standards. the order raises odds over more blocks including one in germany. ahead on the show, the one word every investor needs to know, plus why our next guest calls this telecom company at

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the wex wrap-up. a.r.m. will have a $51 a share ipo price. the stock starts trading on the nasdaq under the ticker a-r-m. don't miss two exclusives ahead with softbank ceo masayoshi son

and rene haas. and berkshire sells 5.5 million shares of hp. you will see hp shares down 1% in pre-market. x, the company formerly known as twitter, will settle claims against former employees saying they were scammed out of severance pay when elon musk bought the company and laid them off. and ftx gets the green light to liquidate all assets. open a.i. expanding overseas presence opening an office in dublin. so far, the dublin location has nine job openings across different teams. and trucking firm estes express submitting a revised bid

for yellow. the trucking firm raised the bid from $1.3 billion to $1.52 billion. topping the old dominion price for the company. it is thursday and the august producer price index is on deck at 8:30 a.m. we get earnings after the bell from adobe and lennar. a.r.m. is trading on the nasdaq today at $51 a share. and the latest decision from the ecb is due at 8:15 a.m. this morning. a busy day. we are in the final hours before the auto workers contract expires at 11:59 p.m. eastern. the union has been negotiating with gm and ford and stellantis on a four-year deal. uaw president sean fain said the company s have increased wages

between 17.5% to 20%. in a live stream, he said the sides remain far apart. the uaw is prepared to strike at a limited number of factories. >> we are still very far apart on the key priorities. to win, we are likely going to take action. just as we approached negotiations decifferently thann the past, we are preparing to strike these companies in a way they have never seen before. >> in a statement, ford ceo jim farley said we put four offer on the table since august 29th and each has been generous, but they have yet to receive a genuine counteroffer. the future of the industry is at stake and he wants to avoid a disastrous outcome. let's talk more about the impact of the potential uaw strike with

patrick anderson. ceo of the anderson economic group. patrick, you heard the uaw president right there. he says they are far apart. what do you think the resolution could look like? >> i think they are far apart on non-wages. on wages, they don't appear far apart. both ford and gm are proposing double impact. the wage gap is something to be closed through negotiation quickly. some demands for the uaw like return to the job bank or defined benefit plan would put a bankrupt risk on the automakers and probably would not be kept to the workers with the next

downturn. i think it seems like the uaw leadership is willing to strike. >> okay. i think my next question is how inflationary could the strike be? >> uaw strike and u.p.s. are pushing up prices. inflation really starts with the u.s. government and the fed and government funding. i don't blame the uaw or teamsters or any other workers for wanting wage increases. inflation is there and they didn't cause it. however, it is something where the automakers have to be sustainable. they have to stay in business and that is one of the reasons you see jim farley saying there is a ceiling. at some point we cannot sustain our business in the face of inflation. >> we have strong comments on both sides.

patrick, thank you. let's get a check of how markets are shaping up. futures indicated higher with the dow suggesting an open of 76 points to the upside. analysts at jpmorgan chase are everything on a more cautious j outlook on the markets calling the s&p over valued. joining me to discuss this trading day ahead is catriona dudley. >> thank you for being here. >> thank you for very having me. >> what we are seeing on the inflation front is moderating. we're in the camp that inflation can have a two handle by the end of the year. that means the fed gets to check

that box which is achieving inflation moderation will not drive news recession. >> what ghifives you confidence will get to 2%? >> you are seeing the costs moderate. you are seeing a slight rise in oil and gas, but moderation of other parts which are drive inn higher than expected inflation particularly on the housing front. you see the owner/occupied number moderating. it is easy to point to oil prices means there are a lot of things to help moderate that number sd number. >> taking a step back, we have the ecb policy meeting where there could be a hold. what would you say the word of the day is if you summarize market action? >> i like the word even-handed. i look at three things with the market. we really see the temper even

hand. let's start with the labor market. jobless claims coming out. we are seeing a nice balance between unemployment. we are starting to see job openings come down. people can access labor. housing market has been good and it really hasn't had a lot of volatility. going back to the industrials. we have seen a big investment cycle cycle. we are looking at the non manufacturing in place. they are investing. they see that same type of long-term investment opportunity that we with do. i like these markets. markets thrive and things are less volatile. >> you like industrials. the top pick is the telecom? >> it is an addiction of mine. charter communications is a cash

flow machine. you have a stock which is weak in the last year or so because people were concerned about leverage. one of the things we learned during covid is how important connectivity was and charter provided that connectivity. when people are working from home, full-time or part-time, they really need services. i like the cash flow they generate. i think they have the right capital structure and they have a service that we need. >> and nice dividend sdp. >> i'm happy to take those coupons and take them to the bank. we are looking at dividends and you need to understand what is supporting them and how stable it is which is attractive to us for charter. something we can put away and forget. >> as we countdown to the fed

meeting enext week, do you buy n the certain sectors or take a break? >> i think the fed has been data dependent. that is the hemessage that came out of jackson hole is we are watching the data. they have enough data coming to them that suggests it is okay to take a pause. we are looking for the pivot that needs to happen at the fed with between them saying we fought inflation battle and we won. we see the fed can check the box in terms of forward looking. we need to see them pivot to start supporting the economy and making sure we have a soft landing. a soft landing is not a recession. it is a tempering of the economy and that nice even-handed necessary. >> you are expecting a rate cut? >> i don't think we will see a rate cut early in the year. as we look throughout the year, as the economy weakens, the fed

may need to cut slightly. i don't think we are looking for a significant amount of rate c cuts. >> katrina dudley, thank you. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is next. have a great day. so morgan stanley is partnering with the women's tennis association to remove them. ( ♪♪ ) because this game is for everyone. ( ♪♪ ) every business because this game that's why comcast business de is launching theal. mobile made free event. with our business internet, new and existing customers can get one year of unlimited mobile for free. it's our best internet. powered by the next generation 10g network and with 99.9% reliability. plus one line of free mobile for an entire year. it's the mobile made free event-happening now. get started for just $49.99 a month.

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good morning. it's ipo day for a.r.m. holdings here at the desk. we even brought plants. we dig into the public debut. a lot going on upstairs. a lot of buffet type stuff. the plants. why not leave them? >> they're nice. plenty of dataon the way. producer prices and retail sales

for august. why haven't we had plants? that's why we notice them. weekly jobless claims and the ecb latest raidte decision. plus, arby's is the blatest fast food chain to discuss the lawsuit over the claims it has the meats. it is thursday, september 14th, 2023. "squawk box" starts right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin