supply limited, making new homes, a greater share of those homes available, if you were to look at the two combined. with the public builders, having incentive, you know, 5.5, not 7 or higher, that affords market share gains, and we point this out -- this happened before. >> we got to leave it there, thank you, because we're out of show. >> thank you. >> ken, appreciate it. that does it for "overtime." "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." where phones ring on set. here's what's on tap tonight. a burst of energy. crude doing something it hasn't done all year long. is this just the start of a long year-end rally? and if so, how much tiger can this trade go? plus, the countdown to midnight. the ceos of gm and ford speaking out as the threat of uaw strike draws closer. what they have to say, and what it could mean for the auto industry. and later, we'll go inside arm's long-awaited return to the

public market today here at the nasdaq. disney's bump on reports abc could be sold. and a new etf hitting the market, trying to capitalize on the zero day options boom. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. tim see your, karen finer man, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start with crude. $90. big oil stocks coming along for the ride. marathon oil, hess, exxon and more. crude's move also highlighted in the latest producer price print. the ppi's energy index jumping 10.5% in august. its biggest monthly gain since at least 2010. that jump being felt. delta today, american yesterday, united, southwest, alaska airlines last year. is this the new crude reality for companies, and how much higher could oil go from here? >> we thought this was going to

happen for quite some time, and at a certain point, becomes, you know, listen, the spr is at levels, they had an opportunity to replenish, they didn't. we're going to see different networks talking about this, everybody is on the gasoline thing. i don't think it matters at this point if crude goes higher or not. the energy stocks, to me, are still in play. and valero made an all-time high today. oih at a four-year high. marathon, we're going to have paul on, he talked about this stock when it had a $60 handle. that's making an all-time high. so, the commodity seems to be -- that cat's out of the bag. i don't know if you can put it back in, but regardless of price action, the energy stocks are still attractive at these levels. >> they're the worst performing sector this year, so, maybe there's some of that going on. people looking for performance? >> i look at the two-year outperformance of the s&p. i get where we were at the end of 2010, so, the underperformance, but i -- agree with guy. i think there's a lot more of this to go. i say this all the time, for the last year and a half, the energy

companies have proven that for the previous couple years before that, they're run differently. they are not run to grow at all costs. they're not run to pay back debt and in fact, they're paying back a lot of debt. so, what i mean, historically, that's all they really cared about. i look at the oil field services, ofs, but schlumberger, the earnings power that is coming to the company now. i look at where they were in 2015, 2016, when the stock was a $95 stock, i think -- what you're starting here is first, the drillers have pricing power. there is demand. there is a lack of supply right now. some of the dynamics are certainly opec-related. some of them are structural. there's a lack of investment in new production for the last decade. so, i think this is a trade, i think it's underweight in terms of the s&p. i think if you think of the move in oil and these energy stocks with the move we've had in the dollar over the last six weeks, it's extraordinary. every 1% higher move in the dollar usually means a 3% move

lower in oil prices and oil prices are doing what they're doing with the dollar. >> karen? >> yeah, i agree with everything tim and guy said. i think the idea of -- this is a different industry now. and the idea in the past, when they make so much money, when oil is this high, what are they going to do? expand, buy everything they can? and that's just not rewarded right now. it's not happening right now. companies feel like they won't be rewarded, and so, they've just turned into gushers of money, right? >> and those management teams were fired. they're gone. those ceos were overseeing, you know, pretty much the bankruptcies of the last round. >> so, a different era. and so now, even though they've moved a lot, to me, there's still very attractive. they're not less attractive. even though they've moved. >> interesting, though, the relationship to the dollar and, again, so, you have rising crude, rising dollar, and there's going to be some knock-on effects from that, if it continues to go that way. i don't know. i'd be surprised to see crude go too much higher. you talk about, you know, the supply/demand dynamics and it is a matter of supply that's caused

this 35% rally over the last, eight, nine weeks or so. if you look at the industries, mel, you mentioned all the airlines that are warn, because of the input costs. while crude was getting hit earlier in the spring into the summer, you saw the airline stocks rally 25%, and now they've given it all back. and i just wonder, as we've been spending a lot of time talking about consumer, we look at gas right now, savings rates, you know, inflation, just in general, ticking back up at a time where wage growth is moderating, i wonder, you know, how much some of these companies are able to pass on a lot of these inflationary inputs, how long they're able to do it, even if you do have crude, just stays around here for a couple months. that might be a story for q-4 this year. >> we heard time and time again, the saudis have projects they have to fund, so, their interest is to keep the price of oil high. so, if we are where we are for a long time, guy, have companies already adjusted to that? we've already heard from companies, as well, that consumers are pushing back on price increaseincreases, so, thf

passing a higher cost on at this point is probably out the window. >> it's back at energy stocks. the question is, no, they haven't. i don't think they've come to the realization that we're probably in this new -- well, i don't want to say new paradigm, but we're in this environment for the foreseeable feature in terms of higher energy costs. for awhile, yeah, company's been able to pass that cost to their customers. i don't think they can do it anymore. what does that mean? margins contract. what happens when margins contract? you should pay less for, in terms of valuation, less for a dollar's worth of earnings. if you see margin contraction, theoretically, it should mean stocks go lower. >> if energy prices were high, chemicals -- >> right. >> miners. it's one of their biggest input costs. >> i think for the petrochemical companies and refined product, we're getting into a sweet spot for them, so, i actually think -- i would get back just to shum per jay, i'm looking at a report by cowen, they have indicated they're going to add

$5 billion in revenue, 1.5 in ebitda to '22, and they can do the same thing for '24. if you are looking at raising revenue, this is where the companies are going to both rerate and i think the balance sheets get better and better. >> dollar higher -- >> china weaker. what about, like, this is the other thing, there's no china out there, there's no kind of global resource trade, a lot of this is happening with sentiment on china and china's economy in a property bubble, you know, it's -- it's very, very low. >> and what if there is stimulus, what happens to oil at this point? that doesn't sound like a great recipe for multinational companies. >> well, it's not terrible, necessarily, you see their earnings are going to be hit with the higher dollar, yes, but to the idea that it's because the economy's doing well, right, and there is demand, and -- >> because of that or just central bank differentials? >> i think it may be some of both, right? i don't know. i feel like the economy is

humming along and so i have to go with both. >> our next guest is going long on energy as it climbs higher. paul sankey is here on set. great to see you. >> oil must be 19 above, right? i'm back. >> that's when we have you. do we stay here? >> ah, yeah, i think so. a lot of it -- so much of this demands on governments and what's driven us up is the saudis. last year, the u.s. government was releasing a million dollars a day from the spr. that's a huge amount of oil at the margin. a million dollars a day. and we have the same effect with saudi having cut a million barrels a day. ten days ago now, a week ago, they said they're going to maintain the cuts, so, that million is going to be offline right through the end of the year, so -- it looks like a very tight balance, as we head for christmas, and obviously you're going to be nervous about winter. we don't know what's going to happen, but you better be ready in case it's cold. so, it looks like it will be a powerful situation now at year end. having said that, saudi said they wanted $95 oil, that was

the number they said they needed for their growth plans. they need 85 for their budget. the question is, can biden, the biden administration engender relations to back off this cut, or are they going to do spr, what are they going to do? we don't know. >> you heard us talking about valuations. the stocks, i mentioned marathon, mpc, marathon petroleum, which you came and talked about in the fall of '21, $60 stock, basically tripled. ish. i think valuations are still compelling, am i right or wrong? >> well, you hesitate to say new paradigm, this time it's different, we don't like to say it, but these stocks just buy back stock, you know? they get the excess cash flow. if they have a great quarter, effectively, the stock is worth 5% more, simply because you know these managements now have got a new paradigm, and the new paradigm is, we'll just pay it back to shareholders. and so yeah, no, i mean, it's a really positive refining environment, though, again, it's

some what caused by the saudis cutting barrels from the market, combined with the problem we have globally. >> how does the election cycle play out in your oil forecast? i mean, higher oil, the biden administration is going to try and knock that down either by calling up saudi arabia or going there and saying, you know what, can you please back off? which, they may or may not do. they haven't done that -- >> i think it's a big deal. because it's not an election year here, so, do they not do anything now and say, okay, let's just keep this in reserve? let's keep an spr download, because we've taken out half the spr, do we really -- and it became public it was just being sold to china, which doesn't go over great, so -- at this point, it's very tough for them. going into winter, rising prices causing rising inflation, fed having to keep, you know, things tight, and we're not in an election year, makes it really tough, yeah, absolutely. and that's what's been so tough about this year. we got russia wrong, didn't happen in the way we did, now we're looking at the g7 saying,

we're not going to bother about the price gap in russian oil. there are things they are doing -- iran is the biggest supplier to china. that's a problem for the saudis. and of course, you have a little bit of marginal stuff coming out of venezuela. that's why it's hard to call the oil price. >> so, let's call the equity prices. and you talk to institutions, that's what you've done your whole career. it feels like the institutional investor in the oil market is different. they are dedicated resource players, but there was a lot of crossover stuff going on when the energy sector was 60% of the s&p back in 2008. where do you see this going? and where do you see broader institutional interest in a resource sector where a lot of these folks were burned? as you said, as we've said, these companies are run differently. they can pay downdebt at $60 oil. they're not the same companies. >> we had the big conference here, the energy kind of start to the year after labor day, and the feedback was, it's incredible to think that brent is above 90 and everyone is so negative. that's the oil specialists. and the oil specialists are

relu reluctant. if we get weak here, saudi's got a double problem, because we're at 9 million a day, oil price is going down, now how do we get our revenue? so, there could be a major traffic accident in '24, and that's the way oil specialists are looking. i think oil is causing inflashgs and by the way, these things pay you. >> i think we got a preview toll his pair trade. >> with the caveat that the last time you gave us a pairs trade was in may and it was sort of a mixed per ed performance. in short, a basket of oil producers, if you actually combined it, it's actually -- didn't really work out. so -- >> melissa, i thought you were going to say -- >> what is your pairs trade? >> i thought you were going to ask me my short nvidia trade -- >> we already called you out the last time. >> and it's not fair we're making you do the pair trades. >> i think he enjoys it.

he's smiling. he comes back. >> sankey research is indep independent. a lot of this stuff i couldn't talk about different stocks that are not in my sector, for example, so -- today, we're talking, if you want oil price just out and out juice and to a lot of the themes, you buy transocean rig, which has been on a tear, but it's just extremely levered. so, that would be one on the long side, and then in the paper book that i trade, we're long rig and short ual, so, an obvious -- there's a lot of obvious things that do badly with high oil prices, and that's a highly levered trade. >> sounds like it. all right, paul, thank you. always good to see you. see, smiling, he's going to come back. >> he should be smiling. his short apple long exxon trade is one of the best of all-time. >> that was his first one, though. he peaked. >>. >> we had long npc, short rivian. that was epic. >> true. >> i knew it would blow up eventually and it did. >> of course.

such a good sport, thank you. >> thank you so much. pleasure. >> levered plays. rig, they have a $9 billion backlog. you talk about levered plays. rig is one of them. this stock has bounce. but you look at it where it's been -- not that it matters historically, but this is one of those things, you catch a couple things right, it goes from 8 p 1/2 dollars to ten. he mentioned china, their economy has been slowing down, they've been stockpiling. why are the chinese stock piling oil and other xhcommodities? think about that for a second. they're stockpiling things. i mean this in a major way. the oil thing is no joke. >> we stockpile, too. >> forget about us. >> we have an spr. >> not anymore we don't. >> where are you going with this? >> i'm not going anywhere. >> just throwing it out there. >> he wants to talk war. >> what is it good for? >> absolutely nothing. >> nothing. >> say it again. you know what's interesting?

this x le, 40%, it's exxon and chevron and, you know, the thing -- it's back up here above 90 bucks and i go back and i look at where it was at the heights before it crashed ten years ago, it was mid 90s or so -- i don't know how this thing breaks out. like, you guys tell me. what is the thing that gets exxon and chevron to drag the xle? we talk about it a lot. to break out. look at that chart. and everything that we've just talked about, i don't know, it's a conundrum. >> go ahead, karen. >> i was going to say, it could be -- if we find ourselves in a market where rates are higher, and people are looking for low pe kind of stuff, this is exactly where they would go. low pe kind of stuff, high dividend, and not out over their skis at all. >> right. >> and in a higher ppi environment, like, what i love to see is a resource investor is a high ppi out of china. so, this is what we're getting, and it may not be cpi and it may be, again, not part of core, but

i continue to think we have these dynamics, and part of this is because i just think there's been a lack of investment in the underlying, and i just think that it gets back to the valuations of the companies, and they are always cheap, by the way, but i think they will look attractive. meantime, an earnings alert on lennar. shares beat expectations on the top and bottom lines. the home builder reporting strong year on year increases. let's get the numbers with diana olick. >> higher interest rates different hurt very much lennar. beat again on the top and bottom lines. even know rates went from the 6% range on the 30-year fixed in q-2 to the 7% range in q-3. in the release, lennar's executive chairman stuart miller noted the jump during the quarter, but said short housing supply absorbed by strong pie mare and pent up demand continued to define a strong sales environment. and he added that home builders also continued to use incentives including buydowns to offset rising interest rates and

tighter capital, which, of course, limit affordability. now, len narp's average sales price was lower at $448,000, compared with almost $500,000 the year before. it also raised q-4 guidance on deliveries, and we did just get the read on mortgage demand for newly built homes in ugust. it was up 20% year over year. so, exile the existing market is still weak due to low supply, builders are picking up the slack. melissa? >> karen's got a question, diana. >> despite that average sales price being lower, their gmargis were better. their costs were lower. do they see that continuing? >> yeah, they didn't see if that's continuing, but when you talk about the average sales price, some of that skews more toward who is buying what. so, it's not necessarily that median of who is on either side, but probably more that lower priced homes are selling more than higher priced homes and that's just the demand out there. you're seeing that in the existing market, as well, because you have the higher interest rates, people can afford less, they are just moving towards that lower priced home.

it's not necessarily that the home itself is dropping. >> all right, diana, thank you. you would think at some point mortgage rates have to catch up to this trade. >> and they have been over the last couple weeks in terms of the stock. look at lennar. the prior high back in december of 2021 was $117ish. it's not consequence dental, here we are at 117. we broke out, we're testing the prior all-time high. you look at the quarter, $3.87 was even higher than the highest whisper number on the street. a very good quarter. but to your point, are rating going to start to catch up to these stocks? last couple weeks say yes. this is huge support in lennar. >> i think the best days for the housing stocks are behind them. doesn't really matter to me, i get the builders are seeing demand and they're going to behave differently than the housing market. if you have ground velocity in the housing market to almost zero because people can't move, wontd move, won't pay a new mortgage price, i get that the home builders are making up that, and it is an apples and

oranges, but the pricing across housing markets, i think, are going lower. all we do is talk about the consumer being strapped, too. i think it's been a great trade off of an expectation that rates were going to be higher, so, housing stocks in the face of when rates went lower early summer rallied to really all-time highs. i think you're chasing the trade now. coming up more after hours action. shares of adobe on the move. the numbers from the quarter ahead. plus, zeroing in on zero day options. a brand new etf looking to capitalize on one of this year's bigges biggest trading trends. don't go anywhere. much more "fast money" after ai designed to multiply productivity by automating tasks. when you watsonx your business, you can build digital skills to help human resources spend less time generating offer letters, writing job reqs, and managing schedules... and spend more time on humans.

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welcome back to "fast money." earnings alert on adobe. shares are volatile, after the company turned in beats for q-3. the ceo touting their new era of a.i.-enhanced products. let's get to kate rooney with more. >> a.i. has been a big theme of the earnings call so far. the software maker saying ahead of earnings that its generative a.i. tool called fire fly is now

widely available, analysts expect that to boost revenue growth. some of the tools are integrated into adobe's products. the software maker saw record revenue. that was up 10%, and as far as the outlook, says that it's balancing macro uncertainty with some of the year-end seasonal strength. adobe's ceo saying that enterprise was strong, and digital continues to be one of the key areas where i.t. investment continues, also said that he expects consumer and small business resilience to continue. document cloud revenue with a bright spot, up 13%. digital media revenue up 11% year over year. executives also talking about adobe and the confidence they've got in the merits of its $20 billion acquisition of figma, as it faces a probe from european regulators. back to you. >> kate, thank you. adobe? >> great company. 30 times forward numbers. 12 times revenues. stock that's gone from $335 in the spring, i think it traded up to $575 it's been a huge run.

has the stock run too much? probably yes. >> well, i mean, the answer is, the stock's rallied 65% since people have gotten excited about fire fly, right? they've announced the pricing, it's out there, it's available. they reported 10% revenue growth year over year. there's -- we're going to have to see how this shakes out over the next few quarters, but trading at 13 times sales for a $250 billion market cap company where we have to see, you know, essentially how this all shakes out, i just don't -- i'm surprised the stock's not down. i would suspect this stock is probably $500 before $600, trading at $550 right now. >> well, i don't have a position in it c. everything dan and guy said is, i think, not just relevant to this stock, but to so many stocks in the igv, so, that's why i'm short it. and i think, yeah, great quarter, i mean -- there's a lot to like. except for the valuation. >> right. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next.

a zero or a hero? a new etf looking to squeeze gains from one of this year's biggest investment trends. but don't worry, professor mike khouw is here to dig into the details. what you need to know about the zero day options etf before getting in. plus, a farewell to arm? more like a big hello. a big day for the chip design company, surging in its nasdaq debut. what the listing means for the ipo market and the outlook for tech. you're watching "fast money," live from thnaaq mkee sdart site in times square. we're back right after this.

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money." a brand new etf for zero days to expiration options hitting the market today. the defiance enhanced etf granting act scess to what has become a very popular strategy. mike khouw has a closer look at this one. >> yeah, so, the qqqy etf basically tries to take advantage of the ability to sell near dated options. specifically, they are looking at selling short-dated options on the nasdaq 100 index options. and what this strategy is going to be doing is selling options that expire anywhere from one day to as far as a week out, and collect about 25 basis points worth of premium every day, by selling puts. now, if you're selling puts, obviously, you're hoping that the market goes up, but this is a strategy that's relatively path depen dend, because you are selling volatility. so, the best thing for this strategy is if the market is basically trek sideways or moves mildly higher. because if it moves sharply

lower, you're going to have losses it needs to make up. it's taking advantage of the fact that there's been a big uptick in the zero dte options. >> what's the catch, mike? >> well, you know, i mean, the catch, as always, if you are selling put options, you're selling a form of insurance on the market. so, if volatility spikes, you're going to have some risk there. there's something else, too, which i think is kind of important to think about, which is, when you sell very short-dated options, you're subject to what we call path depe dependency. if i sell an option that expires in one month, and the market ends up at or above that strike, i'm going to make my none. however, if i start selling at the money options every day, i can actually dig myself a hole that i need to then dig my way back out of. so, even if the market ends up higher, if it took a really bumpy ride to get there, this might not work out. >> what's your take, dan, on a

product like this? >> it sounds like an accident waiting to happen. i mean, so, you introduce these in a low vol period. mike's talking about taking a, you know, a quarter of a point by selling at the money puts. if there's some sort of event, right, and there's a number of these sorts of funds that are doing these things and it's not just etfs, right, a lot of people employing these strategies -- we haven't really been able to put our finger on what the zero days to expiration, what they've meant. a lot of people smarter than us, mike khouw is smarter than me, it's been vol dampening. but if there's a reason for volatility to come back into the market, i don't know -- >> the expression is picking up nickels in front of a steam roller. i mean, the risk/reward doesn't make a lot of sense. i get that short-dated options, knot just single day and these otes, but five days or less are half the option vomarket these

days. that makes sense to me. a lot of traders don't want to go home with any exposure every night. that makes sense. again, collecting premium, when you have a chance to really have downsized losses, not trades i want to be part of. >> not getting paid enough -- in my opinion, the market is not paying you enough to take the type of risk that you're putting on, you probably don't even realize that you have. >> thank you, mike. for more options action, tune into the full show that's tomorrow, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, today was all about the arm. forget leg day. referring to the gym? strong nasdaq debut for arm. shares popping nearly 20%, so, what does the jump mean for all the other ipos? the pipeline? rick hitsman will give us his take on today's offering and what it could mean for the tech landscape. and a media deal in the works? what disney may be looking to do with one of its signature properties and what it could mean for the stock. don't go anywhere. more "fast money" after this. > ss aomt >>mied menof "fast?"

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks rallying even as the latest inflation reading came in hotter than expected. the dow jumping more than 300 points. best day in more than a month. the s&p and nasdaq climbing 0.8%. shares of at&t rising. they expect cash flow to be in the range of $4.5 to $5 billion. stock 3% higher on the day. shares of arm holdings jumping 25% in their nasdaq debut. our next guest believes arm could help jump-start the appetite for ipos. rick heitzmann is with us. he's founder and partner at first mark capital. >> thank you for having me back. >> new set. >> it's awesome. >> in terms of today's debut, what do you make of it, and we had a guest yesterday saying that he thinks it's going to be like uber where the high will have been hit basically at the

ipo, and then it will sort of just languish for a long time. >> ah -- i would disagree with that. >> okay. >> i think what you're seeing is that there's real fundamental demand for ipos. people are looking for the new toy. there's not been an ipo, and this isn't even a real ipo. this is a relisting of a company similar to kendu, the j&j spin-off. so, you know, you're going to -- but this is -- what you're saying, there's demand for that, people want to buy ipos. and then you're going to see next week with instacart, you're going to be able to buy real traditional fast-growing ipos as those guys come out, and there's a lot of -- there's a lot of appetite for that and they're structuring the deals the right way. >> these are companies that have been around for awhile and their valuations have been marked down from their peaks dramatically, so, that sort of bodes well for them in their debut in terms of pricing. and i'm wondering if you think that's sort of what needed to happen. >> they had to. they had to price for the pop.

if arm would have traded down today, the market would have felt a lot differently. so, they priced it the right way so they get a pop, and they also have a very small and limited flow. so, they're constricting demand and pricing it the right way and it's the reason that they're going to price, you know, instacart down 70% from the last private round, they're pricing it to get into a good new normal for an upswing. >> rick, back in 2021, when instacart, you know, again, was all the rage, and now, like you said, going to be down 70%. when you think about this, you're a real early stage investor, but some of the vcs who bought at that 39 billion valuation, it's going to hurt, right? and the other thing, who is the incremental buyer of an instacart here? so many different sorts of companies, hedge funds, people that are buyers of ipos, they were buying, you know what i mean, in some of these growth rounds. is that a different dynamic than

in past ipo cycles? >> they have. they've bought and some of them actually have already sold, and some of them haven't participated in this market for the last two years, because they didn't want to participate at $38 billion, and now at $9 billion, it's interesting. and instacart is doing the same thing that amazon did, that some of the other folks are doing of, hey, we're getting in the advertising business. so, they're selling very low margin products in order to advertise against them. and it's been a good model for supermarkets, been a good model for amazon and for instacart going forward. >> groocongratulations to the nasdaq, they did a great job. arm did $2.7 billion in revenue last year, about the same this year. i think today's close means $65 billion market cap-ish. d does the math make sense? >> it doesn't. but the business is so tied to the ecosystem of the cell phone

in infrastructure, it's going to make sense. i don't know enough about the company to talk about that, but you can say, hey, this is an incredibly important in infrastructure company going forward, and therefore, it should be priced at a premium for that reason. >> in terms of market conditions that are going to be good for ipos, for the new round coming out, i'm curious, because, you know, big cap tech, can you make the case they are defensive, so, that's not necessarily the measure of a good market or good market conditions for these ipos. they are very different animals. >> very true. that's why people were very concerned that most of the rally has been around big cap tech, and they -- where people had historically seen a market open is the last section of ipos have rallied, right? all the ipos from '21. you would see them rallying just to show fundamental demand for growth tech. >> right. >> and we have not seen that, so, people are wonderi ing how much appetite is there from the big traditional ipo buyers. and we're going to find out next week. >> okay, big test. rick, thank you. >> thank you. >> rick heitzmann. where are you on these --

>> well, first of all, for arm, it's interesting, because for soft bank, you have a big victory. the vision fund, you know, is in at a higher, you know, $65 billion water mark. so, it's a fascinating time, also, some of the most inf influential investors in the world, we want to know what they're thinking and doing, because, you know -- a lot of times, it feels like the ipo market, especially in tech and leading edge tech is a game of folks that are all sitting at the same table deciding when they're going to -- it seems very orchestrated, obviously, these are early stage folks, these are some of the smartest guys in the room, but they are also some of the guys that really told the market, this is what you're going to do, and i don't think they have that leverage right now. >> i agree with guy. when i looked at the financials, i thought, that's not so crazy for the quarter. that was for the year, and so, i mean, the multiple here is insane, right? and so sh the yousmall float pa of it has to be instrumental.

staying away from this one. coming up, automakers sound off. who said what, that's next. plus, netflix shares looking like the walking dead this wk.ee will the money heist in the stock end? we'll bring you those details. and that trade, next on "fast money."

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phil lebeau has the details. phil? >> melissa, there is a level of frustration with auto executives that i have not heard in more than 24 years of covering the big three, and covering a number of these types of negotiations. here is the latest regarding the uaw contract, which, by the way, expires at 11:59 p.m. tonight. gm and ford have made new offers. those offers call for 20% raises over the life of the contract, which is 4 1/2 years. the uaw will be announcing its strike plans at 10:00 p.m. tonight. and we've been told by a source familiar with those plans that it will be eight transmission and engine plants in the upper midwest that will be targeted. here are those plants in question. we're talking about the big boys, when it comes to transmission plants. the facility for tell land tis in indiana. the cleveland facility for transmissions in toledo, in ohio. the transmission facility for ford in levonia. if you don't have transmissions,

you can't do final assembly. by the way, the uaw says, we're not commenting on this list. there is no list, and the uaw says some of these plants may or may not be on the list with that said, here's the comments that we heard earlier today from ford president -- excuse me, ford ceo jim farley and gm's president, mark royce. >> it hurts everybody. it hurts our employees, it hurts the communities where these plants are, our supply bases, our tier ones, our tier twos, our tier threes, and for every one of those people that are out of work at one of these facilities that we have, there's six other people in the community they are effecting. >> it's enormous for an engine, transmission, or stamping plant, all the downstream assembly plants will be affected within hours or days. and what most americans don't realize is that although that would disrupt the manufacturing and the assembly of vehicles, many of those workers may not be eligible for the strike fund or

for even unemployment, so, at a personal level, our employees get hurt. >> jim farley and mark royce talking about what the impact of a strike or strikes at engine and transmission plants would do. the bottom line is this, melissa, as you look at shares of the big three automakers. if there is a strike at a transmission plant, give it a day, maybe two, final assembly starts to shut down. and by the way, these plants supply transmissions and engines to the most profitable models. pick bigup trucks, big suvs. we're not talking about small vehicles here. we're talking about the profit drivers for the big three. >> so, the latest offer from the oems still the 20% over the course of 4 1/2 years. how long has that been in the hands of the uaw and have you heard anything about potential response to that? >> ah, we have heard there's been no response from the uaw. and if there are talks, we're not getting any sense that there are legitimate talks going on this afternoon.

both mark royce and jim farley expressed frustration that they have extended these offers to the uaw, most recently yesterday and today, and the feedback from uaw president shawn fain, well, they heard some yesterday on facebook, haven't heard a whole lot today. and from their perspective, you know, they're not going to say that shawn fain is planning on a strike and is not really negotiating in good faith, but you can read between the lines, melissa. they don't believe that this is going to get resolved by midnight. that's my interpretation of the comments they made. they would gladly sit down in the next few hours and if they can hammer out a deal, they would do it. but the feeling that i get from talking with executives is, it's not going to happen. >> phil, thank you. phil lebeau joining us from detroit tonight. okay, we go on strike. a couple days, final assembly is shut down. no autos are rolling off those assembly lines. >> yeah, so, people -- if you look at -- listen, this is deep into the pool, but carvana today

tells you, i think, up 13%. >> auto nation, too. >> auto nation, too. carmax, that this is going to happen. this strike is going to happen. if you want to play stock market here, these are the stocks to sort of understand that that can turn on a dime. those stocks are telling the story. >> but then what? >> yeah. >> i know you're not saying necessarily go, but the market's reaction, but ultimately -- there's a couple key elements to this. one is, and ford and jim farley pointed out they actually accepted the terms that were on the table, they would have lost $14 billion, and these are companies that are trying very hard to invest in ev. now this is the defense of the automakers, but i'm sure there's union folks out there saying, that's ridiculous. we're the ones that are putting the blood, sweat, and tears out there. the point is that i think this time may be different. and it feels different, not only because of the negotiation tactics and there's usually a flurry activity on the day before a strike, but all three automakers, and that's something i don't think we've seen ever. >> and all the other strikes that are going on, right, 'em

powers labor at this point. meantime, disney shares popping late in today's session. the entertainment giant is in talks to sell abc to nexstar tv group. disney denying these reports, saying a statement, "while we are open to considering a variety of strategic options for our linear businesses, at this time, the walt disney company has made no decision with respect to the disvest sure of abc or any other property and any report to that effect is unfounded." needs money, though, to pay for hulu. as a shareholder, would you like to see it let go of its linear business? >> well -- the deal with charter almost makes you feel like they're grasping at holding onto the linear business as best they can. and as the stud or the godfather, guy, i'm going to dub tom rogers, you know, it does seem like disney is be-holden do deals they have done or have to do. as a shareholder, that doesn't feel great. i think espn kind of needs abc,

at least, right now, though the world is changing. >> tom is sitting right now in that leather, wood paneled, drinking a cognac with a big smile on his face. with that said, the stock's had a decent couple days. the question is, does this really last? because every rally over the last 18 months has been sold. we'll see. >> all right, coming up, problems at the palace. details about the hacking group that infiltrated cesar's entertainment. what we know now, and what challenges still lie ahead for the casino giant. and here's a sneak peek at m e cramer cam. jiis chatting with the ceo of cruz. catch the full interview, top of the hour, "mad money." meanwhile, more "fast money," back in two. but what if you... stop? you work hard, it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank brings security and a guarantee that you'll earn a yield in the top 5% of competitive accounts. going, that's what got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you.

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welcome back to "fast money." las vegas casinos dealing with the fallout from a crippling cyber attack. caesars saying it paid hackers a ransom worth millions, mere days before a similar attack on mgm. eamon javers is here with the very latest. eamon? >> hey, melissa. this has been a series of challenging hacks, but we're learning more about the group that carried them out tonight. which cyber researchers have named scattered spider. a unit of google calls this one of the most prevalent and aggressive actors affecting organizations in the united states today. its members are likely, they say, less experienced and younger that many established hacker gangs. many of its members are native english speakers, which makes them believe they may be low

kated in the uk or europe. and they find that they cause outages in several ways, which don't necessarily involve the deployment of standard ransom ware. of course, knowing all that doesn't do much to mgm and caesars. the two see nor mouse companies who have been hit by these attacks. mgm disclosed its attack wednesday and caesars did the same thing earlier today. now, cnbc reported earlier that caesars has paid out a ransom worth $15 million to the group behind the attacks. the group has demanded a similar payout from mgm, and late today, melissa, the hackers released a new and lengthy statement, saying they had been in mgm's server environment for some time, and criticizing mgm, saying that the hackers don't believe that the casino company will agree to a deal. they say, quote, we recognize that mgm is mistreating the hotel's customers and really regret that it has taken them five years to get their act together. so, some tough words from the

crooks tonight, melissa. >> the crooks are wagging their finger at mgm. what's -- what's -- >> they seem like they are spoiling for a fight here. >> right. they are for the people, apparently. the fbi say in april '22, the same g leased ransomware that's led to at least 60 other compromises. i mean, you would think if they can identify this group, that they can do something about it. this group seems like it has all the leverage here. >> they have all the leverage in the short-term, but in the long-term, law enforcement has some advantages here. one is that if this is a native english speaking group, and it is in the uk or europe, that means these people are probably located in a country that has an extradition treaty with the united states. they may get away with it in the short-term, but these investigations go on for years, and the fbi has demonstrated its ability to find people overseas, track them, prove that they are connected to some of these hacks, and have them extradited back to the united states for arrest. so, anything's possible here.

if i was these hackers, i would not breathe too easily tonight. >> eamon, thank you. eamon javers. you don't want to miss cramer's interview with okta's ceo, tomorrow on "mad money." we always talk about cyber security stocks and how there's always a need. case in point. >> palo alto, the valuation is ridiculous. it's trading around an all-time high. max myers, executive patrol deu producer of "last call." >> eamon javers, bad ass. >> "oceans eleven." andy garcia is seething in a hotel after this. it's unbelievably embarrassing, because they had to put it in their q? >> yeah, you have to disclose this. we'll see what's next. coming up next youshgs final trades. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse!

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30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> total energies group. they should have good news. >> chairwoman? >> yes. my final trade is not arm. anything but arm. >> i see what you did there. >> i'm not saying be short, but -- >> well, you can't. >> you can't right now. just no. no arm. >> no thank you. >> yeah, that auto nation looks interesting. used a 150 stop to the downside.

>> nice show tonight. >> when i say around the horn, we are literally going around now. >> yeah. >> the horn. >> did you figure that out? >> around the horn, it's 's ca horn. when you go -- >> that's why i asked. >> you think i make this up? >> >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field. there is always something somewhere and i promise to help you to find it. mad money starts now. hey, welcome to mad money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. call or tweet me. the bears, they just don't get it. they see the world as