of bp left after admitting he hadn't been transparent about some relationships, but there were also business issues in that company, but there have been a lot of changes in the executive suites. while netflix discusses live sports, it does have a strong history with sports documentary series. formula one, tennis, and golf, a series called "full swing," but the u.s. ryder cup team decided to keep the cameras out of "full swing." that's their decision. that's the way it's going to be. have a great weekend, everybody. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. >> kelly, thank you so much. i'm scott wapner, live from post nine here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with bulls and bears in a battle. your money caught squarely in the middle. stocks trying to eke out a positive week. it's been anything but easy, though, despite coming off the best day of the month. there's your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. that's the kind of day, really, it's been. not great. certainly for the dow, names

like microsoft and mcdonald's, intel and home depot, dragging that index lower today. and speaking of microsoft, tech, a big laggard. every one of the so-called magnificent seven, in the red today. adobe also sinking after its earnings, and chip equipment names like lam research, applied materials, and kla ten corp. falli falling sharply after a news report about semikaconductor orders. look at the stocks we were just talking about. 5% and in some cases more than that. gets deeper for netflix. look at the week to date on the right-hand side of your screen. down more than 10% over the past five sessions alone. down 1% again today. we'll keep our eyes there over this for interest rates, they're a headwind today, pretty good look. the long end, short end, no matter where you look, they're in the green. yields are. takes us to the talk to the tape.

we're halfway through a historically bad move for stocks and they've shown remarkable resiliency lately. does that mean we're out of the woods or about to get worse? let's ask cameron dawson, chief investment officer for new edge wealth with me at post nine. nice to see you again. we have been resilient. beginning of the month, we're like, okay, this is a historically bad month, batten down the hatches, and it really hasn't been all that bad. the question is what happens now? we're halfway through. >> i think one of the reasons why it hasn't been all that bad is because we have had this lift in earnings estimates. it's been slight for the s&p but it's actually been rather robust for the nasdaq. they're up about 9% over the last couple of months, so that's acting as a little bit of a floor under markets, and i think it's one of the reasons why markets had been able to shake off the higher interest rates, which normally would put more downward pressure on valuations. >> you know the obvious question that's coming out of that. are they too optimistic? >> well, they might be for 2024. they're also very narrow. that's what's interesting is

that the nasdaq 100, which itself is a concentrated index, the upside to those earnings estimates is really driven by just three names, amazon, meta, and nvidia. and even the rest of the magnificent seven aren't seeing higher earnings revisions so just as the market leadership is narrow, earnings estimates are narrow, so it does put the onus for the rest of the market to participate. >> is that the one thing that would cause you to be more cautious? you just don't believe that earnings are going to come in where they are? you look at other things like rising yields, rising oil prices, really stunning drop in volatility that has some saying, way too much complacency out there. what is it for you? >> i do think that it is an earnings revision down cycle because all this year, flat has been the new up. we haven't seen earning estimates get cut. they have been raising a little bit. if we go back to a world where earnings estimates start getting cut again, that's looking a lot more like 2022 and that's where you would say we'd expect more than a short and shallow

correction. if the economy continues to hold up and economic surprises continue to push economic forecasts higher, that's why we're seeing earnings estimates raise. >> which side are you leaning on, though? do you think the economy is going to run out of steam? it surprised so many people. ken griffin was on the network yesterday, just talked about the market in general as, you know, wow, there's been so many things that could have gone bad, but they haven't, really. and even if they've been a little squirrely here and there, these are my words, of course, not his, but the market's been resilient. it's hung in there, even though he thinks we're fin the seventh or eighth inning of this move. >> there's been so many cross currents. you can point to things like bank reseats within subprime auto lenders causing you to get scared and think there's problems with the consumer at the lower end brewing but you have the empire fed manufacturing survey coming out today showing a big jump in new orders and future expectation, so businesses may be saying, hey, recession averted, we can hire more, spend more, so you have all of these contrasting

signals all over the place in this market. >> are you in the recession-averted camp? i think you were in the recession camp for a while. >> we were in the no recession in the first half of '23 reassess as we went through it because we thought that expectations for a recession first half were far too aggressive. >> what about now, though? the yield curve is still dramatically inverted, leading economic indicators still aren't great. you can point to other things that maybe would be the tell of a soft landing or not, but now whoo what? >> we don't think we'll have a recession in '23. the calls for an entry into recession in the fourth quarter, we don't think are founded by the data. we don't want to rule out a recession at some point in '24, but based on the pace of the data we're seeing today, it's looking much more like late first half into the second half is the first that we would see it. >> what if inflation continues to come down? now, obviously, this week showed that it's sticky in certain places. cpi, ppi, both a little hotter than expected, but it's not like

that upsets the fed narrative all that much, because even in the face of that, as we said, the market's coming off the best day of the month. even as the ppi was hotter than anticipated, a day after the cpi was. >> and that is austan goolsbee's golden path, this idea that we can remain strong but inflation can come down on its own, meaning that unlike what powell warned about, which is that a period of below-trend growth would be needed to pull inflation lower, that's not what has happened yet. so, the question then going forward is, do we get that below trend growth? hardly at 4.9% on atlanta fed gdp now are there signs that it is today. that could be a scenario for 2024. we breathe a collective sigh of relief, people get complacent, they overhire, overspend, and just at that point is when you hit the full impact of interest rate hikes and that's when you would have a classical recession. >> you mentioned the consumer earlier. do you feel as though the consumer is at an inflection point? that we've almost exhausted all the stimulus that was in the

system and in the bank accounts and everything else and we're about to take a turn? >> i wonder if we are underestimating just how powerful of a tailwind the movement from $5 gasoline in june of 2022 to $3 gasoline in the past couple months was for the consumer. we know that lower inflation really from energy prices helped drive positive real wage growth, so that was able to offset some of the headwinds of running out of savings and the start to student loan repayments, so if real wages start to turn lower, that would likely mean consumer sentiment starts to turn lower, and you could see a choppier path for consumer spending. >> so, oil prices continuing to rise a is a concern, pretty high on your radar? >> yeah. yeah, very much so, just because it effectively acts as a tax on the consumer, and so we know as the consumer has become more stretched, they whittled down those savings, and they're using more credit cards, that there's a lot less wiggle room for the consumer to be able to spend at an elevated pace if oil prices

start to eat more into those budgets. >> all right. let's bring in cnbc contributor stephanie link of hightower as we expand the conversation. steph, good to see you. the gist i get from cameron is, okay, pretty good now, but it's not destined to last for a variety of reasons, both when talking about the economy and the consumer. you want to counter that? >> yeah. i mean, i think -- well, first and foremost, all week long, the data has been really very good, very encouraging. the most important data -- you know i talk about it all the time -- the job market initial claims, the four-week moving average this week fell to 224,000. that's a four-week moving average. wages are running around 4.5% and if you want to switch to another job that's double the amount. that, i think, is very important for the support of the consumer. i think the consumer's in fine shape. they -- basically, they can put their money in cash at 5%, and

that's going to offset higher interest payments from higher interest rates. and we've seen the consumer be resilient. look at retail sales this week, beating expectations. final demand beat expectations. and you know i have been very mixed on manufacturing, but today's industrial production number was very encouraging. it was actually the third best of the year, and that industrial production has actually been rising all yearlong. it's a nice pretty-looking chart, so i think this can continue for quite some time, and i think the better economic data is going to lead to better earnings. i think earnings have troughed. i think you're going to see something like 5 to 6% earnings growth this year. that's -- that would be a surprise to the street, and i think there's a very good chance the momentum continues into next year, and you can see 10% growth. >> cameron, this is part of the bullish argument. as long as people are working, people are spending. >> yeah. yeah. and i think that stephanie's point is very, very clear that, yes, the labor market remains firmly tight, and we agree with that. there aren't any signs, other

than these peripheral signs of things like j.o.l.t.s. moving lower, there are some signs of slight deterioration, but there's not signs of easing yet, which is why i would agree that you're going to continue to see this period of stronger growth. we're not at the point where we're going to see below trend growth. it's not until you see that that you'll see earnings revision down cycle and then the risk for some kind of deeper movement lower. >> if you're mostly positive on the economy and even industrials, which i believe you are, why did you take money off the table in ingersoll? >> that's just profit taking, scott. i had a 30% gain in the position. i love it. and i'll buy it back if it were to pull back, but i thought that -- and i put the money, by the way, into john deere, and i did this earlier in the week before hsbc had initiated today with a buy. so, i think that for me, i'm looking for bargains in this

market, and ingersoll rand held up remarkably well, but deere, when i bought it, was down about 5.5% year to date. it typically trades in the last ten years at 17 times. seven times ebitda for a very high-quality company. ad backlogs are $14 billion. that's 25% of 2023's total revenue growth and you know i'm a big fan of these big conglomerate companies that implement technology into their programs. you know you've heard me talk about slchlumberger. it gives you pricing power and positive operating leverage because you get better margins, and deere, by the way, also has $6.5 billion in free cash flow slated to grow to about $9 billion, so i just thought there was a better bargain, better risk-reward in deere, but i do like ingersoll for the long-term. i'll return to it if it pulls back. >> so, cameron, let's take this

to the next step. what steph has done here just makes me think what some have been saying, that if there's a chase for performance between now and the end of the year, where are you going to see the most gains come from? sure, tech may still do well for the most obvious of reasons that we don't need to list, but you're going to get more out of other areas of the market like the deeres, like cyclical plays, like the industrials. like the energies. like these other places that are just cheaper on a valuation standpoint. >> we thought that's how it would play out back a couple of months ago where you would see the equal weight index get some life to it because there was value in it, and that's not what's happened, though. we've actually seen the big megacaps, the cap weighted index, completely overtake the rebound that we had in equal weight in june and july, so we are seeing more earnings revisions higher in some of these tech names. i think that there's plenty of

opportunity to be had in the unloved parts of the market where there are idiosyncratic drivers. we continue to find those opportunities in our portfolios, but i think if we're going to have a chase into the end of the year, it's a good question of the people will chase the things that performed the best instead of trying to bargain hunt. >> steph, how would you entertain that question? >> well, i think that certainly there are opportunities to be had in technology, and you're seeing a pretty big pullback in the semiconductor space over the past month. so, i would look for opportunities to add there. you know i recently added to amazon, very small position. i would probably add more. i've been trimming meta because it's really had a great run, so i think it's going to be stock-by-stock basis, but i think there are other sectors that are more intriguing to me into the end of the year. you know, quietly, scott, the xle is up 21% from the may 31st lows and those stocks have really rebounded.

with oil above $90, heck, it could be above $50, these companies make so much free cash flow and the numbers and the estimates are likely to go higher because the price of oil has gone higher on a year over year basis, and to me, i think you're going to see chases all over the place if people are underperforming, but i don't think it's just going to be with tech. >> you know what? i'm so glad you mentioned chips, because i meant to -- i was thinking of you earlier today. you're lam research, right? it's you. >> yes. >> these stocks are getting crushed today. that's down 5%. >> yep. >> kla-tencor. it's this report that taiwan semi has reportedly delayed equipment deliveries, and all of the suppliers are down a lot. you worried about that? >> well, it's interesting, scott. first and foremost, lam research, even down 4% today, 5% today, it's still up 48% year to date. so, i see it's easy to take profits. these are very high beta stocks, but i don't think anything that

tsmc really said was new versus what the company said and when they reported earnings back in july. so, yeah, no, i don't like the commentary, but i do think that the valuations are still very attractive. i still believe that wafer fab equipment spending is bottoming, and back in july, when lam research reported they did lift the wafer fab equipment spend number for this year, very, very small, but incrementally, that was a big deal, because the prior nine months, it had been coming down. it's down from $100 billion to $70 billion, and now it's going to be mid-$70 billion according to lam. so, i think the fundamentals are starting to bottom here. it's not going to be a straight line up. little choppy today, little choppy over the last month. i think you're going to get a buying opportunity. >> what do we do, cameron, with chips and software? you look stock by stock. i mean, these are stocks that have had pretty good gains this year. everybody's fixated on the

magnificent seven and the valuations there and the incredible run those stocks have had, but you look at some of these other names, they've outpaced the gains by a lot. >> i think chris had a really good point earlier today that would you be surprised that 50% of the semiconductor index is actually trading below its 200-day moving average? for as popular as that sector has been -- >> well, because nvidia sucks all the air out of the room and makes everybody think that every chip stock is an nvidia. >> if you're buying the chip stocks for a week or two weeks, you're likely to have a period of digestion. if you're buying them for multiple cycles, as we are for long-term, we like them as long-term names, but understanding this is an incredibly cyclical business, and when they trade at valuations that are as if they aren't cyclical, that's when you tend to see a higher volatility. >> steph, what should we think about the fed next week as we spin it to that before we go? no one's expecting, really, a move.

is there a surprise, not necessarily next week, but are we underestimating the capability of the fed to do more than we think? is that one reason why yields remain as elevated as they are? >> well, whether they raise next week, which we don't think that's going to be the case, or november, they're still going to be doing qt, so it's not like they're taking their foot off the gas. that's number one. number two, inflation is going to be sticky. we saw it yesterday, and the day before in cpi, ppi, and even core pce. it's way too high. the fed wants it at 2% or below. so, i do think rates, we have said this for a long time, rates will remain higher for longer. whether they increase rates or not between now and the end of the year, it doesn't really matter. you're towards the end of this cycle in terms of higher rates, but i do think if they're worried about inflation being sticky, they will continue to be aggressive on qt, and that will actually probably lead to a tightening of financial conditions further.

>> you want to leave us with a thought about what you expect next week and beyond? >> watch the dot plot. the dot plot -- >> we get one again. >> we get one, and 2024 has a hundred basis points marked down for cuts and the bond market agrees with it. do we see because of this stronger period of growth, because of a resilient labor economy, because of sticky inflation, do we see those dots in 2024 start to drift up and not confirm this idea that we'll be in easing cycle as soon as january? >> thank you. cameron dawson, stephanie link, thank you so much. let's get to our question of the day. we want to know, halfway through september. the s&p 500 only down around 1%. will we finish the month positive or negative? head to @cnbcclosingbell on x. switching gears now, we are following the latest developments on the uaw strike. phil lebeau is here with that. we've heard from the current president and the former one,

both weighing in on this topic. what are we learning? is there any progress whatsoever? >> if there's progress, it's not meaningful progress. by that, i mean, we have not heard any types of drum beats like, hey, we might see the end of these strikes this weekend or early next week. there are still discussions going on between gm, ford, stellantis and the uaw, but when you look at the workers that walked off the job last night, they're picketing at these plants in michigan, ohio, and missouri. they're going to be on the picket line tonight. they're going around the clock. nothing has changed there. when you look at the latest of what's going on, you've got the 12,700 workers, less than 10% of the uaw members represented by the big three, who have gone on the picket line, and you also have talks formally resuming tomorrow. and again, there's conversation going on, but they formally resume tomorrow, and then there's president biden, who said, record profits mean record contracts.

short time after he said that, uaw president shawn fain said, "we agree with joe biden when he says record profits mean record contracts. we don't agree when he says negotiations have broken down. our national elected negotiators and uaw leadership are hard at work at the bargaining table." take a look at shares of general motors, ford, and stellantis, keep in mind that at the heart of this is how much will wages increase? gm and ford have said, look, we're putting out 20% offer at this point. that is historic by their standards. we usually don't see an offer that rich from the big three. stellantis has formally offered, at least publicly, 17.5%. that's where the movement, if it occurs in the next week, scott, that's where it will occur. >> phil, good stuff. you'll be a busy man over the weekend in these coming days. that's phil lebeau covering the uaw strike. let's gets a check on some top stocks to watch. pippa stevens doing that for us today. >> well, lennar, modestly under

pressure despite the home builder beating estimates during the third quarter. ceo stewart miller pointed to short housing supply that's continuing to define a strong sales environment, but also noted that home builders are using incentives, including buydowns, to draw buyers in as rates stay high with mortgage demand at the lowest level since 1996. nucore also taking a hit. the steel maker now expects to earn between $410 and $420 per share while analysts were looking for $457. the company cited lower pricing as the primary reason as well as lower volumes. that stock down nearly 6%, scott. >> okay, pippa, thank you. we'll see you in just a bit. we are just getting started here on "closing bell." up next, nasdaq under pressure in today's session.

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welcome back to "closing bell." nasdaq on track to finish at the lows of the week, now down 1.5%. there you go, today, pretty ugly day, down more than 200 points. my next guest remains bullish on the sector, says the tech trade has more room to run. let's bring in dominic rizzo of price. >> good to see you. >> i'm looking at your holdings. i want to hit this first. taiwan semi, adobe, asml, i just talked to some folks on the show about the blow-up today in some of these chip names and adobe after its earnings. what concerns do you have? >> scott, we still feel really

good about these names over the next 18 to 24 months. we talked about seeing a little bull market consolidation in tech, and that's what we're seeing, but if we look at the fundamentals, i think pcs have bottomed. i think smartphones have bottomed. i think e-commerce has bottomed. i think datacenter spending has bottomed, and the valuations are relatively reasonable across the space, the global technology index is trading at roughly 22 to 23 times earnings. historically, that peaks at 27 to 28 times earnings. so, yeah, we're in a little bull market consolidation here but over the medium to long-term, we still really like these names. >> but 18 to 24 months is a fairly long time frame from here. what further pullback or consolidation, to use your word, do you think we could still be in for? >> well, you know, i actually think that we're probably coming closer to a bottom here for most of these names. again, look at the fundamentals. they're really strong. look at that adobe earnings report. i think that what happened there is the stock we rated was roughly 20 times the street's

earnings. now it's at 30 times. well-owned long heading into the print, but if you look into next year, we have firefly price coming in nicely. we feel good about a potential revenue acceleration there and we think they have really nice room to run. >> but how do you counter the argument that some would make that say, you know, i agree the fundamentals of many of these companies are good, but they still don't match the valuations, because they got so incredibly stretched that they need to come back down to earth even further? how do you respond to that? >> i think the valuations look okay. look at nvidia. nvidia is trading at just 26 to 27 tim street's fiscal two earnings right now and they are clearly the best position for a.i. the a.i. chip is going from $30 billion in 2023 to $150 billion by 2027. that's a 50% cagr and between their cpus and gpus and dp us ad software, that company is going

to capture such incredible value. we have bull market consolidation here. that happens from time to time especially when the stocks are up a lot. if we look out over the medium and long-term, which we're always trying to optimize in our strategy, 18 to 24 months, we feel still pretty good. >> i markets. we still feel really good about india. services continue to grow as a total percentage of the overall revenue and the stock is trading at 26 to 27 times the street's earnings. i think apple is going to be just fine. >> is there anything you don't feel pretty good about? everything i've asked you, you said you feel pretty good, whether it's a comedown in valuations, fundamental questions about orders placed for certain kinds of businesses. there's got to be something on your mind that's a worry point. >> of course. if you look at some of the very expensive software stocks, you

always have to be very careful. but in general, the names that we own, the durable growth assets with reasonable valuations with improving fundamentals, we feel pretty good like you said. >> all right, dom rizzo from t. ps rowe price. ed yardeni is sticking by his bullish forecast. he's going to break it down after this break. register for cnbc's delivering alpha conference. i'll be there with brad gerstner, september 28th, new york city. you don't want to miss it. scan the qr code. get your tickets. "closing bell" is right back.

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we're back on "closing bell." the major averages under pressure today, treasury yields moving higher across the board. my next guest, though, sticking with his call that stocks will end the year higher from current levels and could rise as much as 20% by the end of next year.

let's bring in ed yardeni of yardeni research. nice to see you, ed. >> pleasure. >> so, look, we said at the outset here that the bulls and bears seem to be in a battle. we came into this month knowing that it's historically bad, but yet we've emerged somewhat unscathed to this point. >> right. >> is that going to continue? if so, why? >> i think so. i was most worried about the cpi inflation rate, whether it was going to surprise us to the upside. it really didn't. i mean, it was sort of a mixed bag, but a lot of the inflation we still have is in rent inflation, and i think that's what the market looked at. they said excluding rent, we're continuing to make progress in the cpi inflation rate, so we got that -- through that reasonably well, and i think we're going to probably see the market kind of hang in there through the end of this month into next month going for a year-end rally. >> part of the problem, though, is nonhousing services remain really sticky and now oil prices are going up again too. >> correct. >> that's a double whammy that

we can't take, certainly you can't take if your prediction is as optimistic as it is. >> well, look, scott, back in october, i predicted that we had made a low on october 12th and the s&p 500, and i thought we could get to 4,600 by the end of this year. we got there by july, and when we got there at the end of july, i said i think that's it for the year. at the beginning of last year, the consensus was that the first half was going to be lousy and the second half would be pretty good. i had the exact opposite view, that the first half was where all the action was, and that the second half would be kind of flattish, and that's kind of the way it's turning out. and so, i still think we're not that far away from 4,600. just a few days away, the way the market trades sometimes. but in the interim, there are issues. there's a back-up in energy prices here. i am concerned about the bond yields being sort of on the cusp of possibly moving up closer to

4.5%. these can all be setbacks that can hold the market back, but i think all it would do is kind of hold back around 4,600, and then next year, i think as the economy continues to perform pretty well, and inflation continues to moderate and the fed clearly has tapped out in terms of the fed funds rate, maybe they won't come down that much, but i think the market can live with a bond yield of 4%, 4.5%. >> we might be tested. the two-year is chilling out at 5%. and you know, i know there's not much expectation that the fed is going to do anything next week, but most feel like november is still on the table, and speaking of the fed, i want your reaction, ed, if i could, to former president donald trump was weighing in on the federal reserve and interest rates in an exclusive interview airing this sunday on "meet the press" with our colleague, kristen welker, of nbc. take a listen. >> the federal reserve is obviously independent, but i wonder, mr. president, if you

are re-elected, would you direct your federal reserve chair to lower interest rates? >> well, you know that i put a lot of pressure on him. it was outside pressure, because nobody knows whether or not you can really do that, but i did, because i thought his interest rates were too high, and he ultimately dropped his interest rates. the same gentleman, as you know. but it was a lot of pressure. i mean, i was very active on that. right now, interest rates are very high. they're too high. people can't buy homes. they can't do anything. i mean, they can't borrow money. the banks don't have the money. the banks aren't lending the money. the banks, by the way, chase manhattan bank, bank of america, they discriminate against conservatives. it's a disgrace, and they shouldn't be allowed to, and i'm going to do something about that, but you take a look at banks throughout the country, and i think because of the regulators, but you take a look at bank of america and chase, they discriminate against conservatives. >> what's the evidence for that, mr. president? >> we'll give you plenty of evidence. >> okay, all right, let's stay on track with this question, though. just to be very clear, if you were re-elected, would you

direct your fed chair to lower interest rates? >> depends. it depends. >> you might? >> depends where inflation is, but i would get inflation down, because drill, we must. >> mr. president, are you going to appoint a new fed chair if you're re-elected? >> well, i guess he would have two years left or something like that, so we'll see. >> okay. all right. >> you know the word jaw-boning? i did a lot of jaw-boning against him, and he ultimately lowered interest rates. >> well, you can be sure to watch more of that exclusive interview with former president trump on "meet the press" with kristen welker. that is this sunday on nbc. should also note the same invitation to sit down with kristen has been extended to president biden, who has so far not accepted that, but do not miss that. we wish kristen well. certainly, she takes over that program. so, ed yardeni, back to you, you want to respond to some of that criticism? obviously, president trump took many shots, which he alluded to at jay powell during his presidency. >> well, that was back then.

let's look at what he said about the future. i think what he said is that whether he jaw-bones powell to lower interest rates, you know, first we have to see whether he's even going to be president, but if he is, and he talks about jawboning powell, he made it very clear it will depend on what inflation is doing. i think that's a fairly reasonable position. i mean, clearly, everybody agrees that in order for the economy to grow sustainably, inflation has to come down. i think it is coming down, and i think powell has made it clear that he intends to do that, and he's made no promises once that's happened other than to suggest that then interest rates could come down. >> but you've been critical at times of the fed in terms of, you know, thinking maybe they were going a little bit too far when they didn't have to, right? >> well, look, i thought that -- i agreed with them in 2021 that inflation was transitory and

obviously, that wasn't a very smart call, but with the benefit of hindsight, it turns out that inflation has been very transtotr transitory when we look at goods inflation. it's been services that's been slow to come down, and i did anticipate that rent inflation would be slow to come down. look, i think they made a mistake in not tightening sooner. everybody knows this. everybody agrees with this. even fed officials have acknowledged as much, and i think i've done a pretty good job of catching up, getting ahead of that inflation curve. they were behind it for a long time. so, i think right now, they're doing a reasonably good job. >> i mean, everything's transitory, ed, if you wait long enough, right? >> absolutely. >> i think that's one of the messages in all of this. so, 50 -- just make sure you give me credit. 5,400, s&p next year is still what you think. how many rate cuts do we need, do you think, since we're talking about the fed, to get to 5,400 on the s&p? you mentioned where, you know, we're not that far from 45 but we got a long way to go to get

to 54. >> we do, and on the other hand, we've got some time to get there. but my assumption is that we're not going to have an economy-wide recession. as you know, i've been in the rolling recession camp since the beginning of last year, and so far, so good, and i think earnings are going to be 225 this year. i think the analysts are looking at 220, so i think it's going to be somewhat higher. next year, 250, and the year after that, 2025, i'm using $270 a share. >> wow. >> yeah, i think -- >> $270. there are people who say, you know, $220 is too optimistic. $240 is way out over your skis. >> yeah. >> and $270 is like, you know, hella skiing, you're dropping from such a high level. >> there were people who were saying we're going to fall into an economy-wide recession and that the market was going to go to 3,000, et cetera. there's always going to be a debate between bulls and bears. i tend to be on the bullish side, though i try to be

realistic about these things. and i think it's realistic to believe that the u.s. economy is going to continue to grow and generate some pretty good earnings, especially in light of my view that we're going to have a -- we are -- we started a productivity boom in 2015 and got sidelined by the pandemic, but i think it's come in big time thanks to technological innovations. i don't think a.i. is hype. i think it's just part of a lot of technologies that are boosting productivity for all companies. >> ed, always good to catch up with you. enjoy the weekend. that's ed yardeni, the president, of course, of yardeni research. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close on this friday. pippa stevens standing by once again with that. >> hey, scott. we're spotting one fitness name that is really feeling the burn. we've got that and more coming up next.

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we're about 15 out from the close. let's get back down to pippa stephens for a look at the key stocks she's watching. >> hey, scott, shares of planet fitness are tanking, down 14% after the company's board ousted the ceo, stunning investors and employees alike. the company said it's now searching for a new top exec. both internally and externally. former governor of new hampshire, craig benson, will serve as interim ceo, and that stock now at a two-year low.

doordash also in the red following a downgrade to market perform by moffett nathanson. the call is based on student loan repayments, which the firm said could eat into the deliver service's sales. moffett nathanson said doordash is a luxury product and noted it's disproportionately exposed to age groups that do have student loans. shares, though, still up more than 65% this year. scott? >> all right, pippa, thank you. last chance now to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked, halfway through september, the s&p only down around 1%, so will we finish the month positive or negative? you know what history suggests, but will it live up to the hype? go to closing bell on x, vote, we'll bring you the results after this break.

get to our question of the day. we asked halfway through september, s&p down only around 1%, will it finish the month positive or negative? the majority of you said negative. it was close, though. many are surprised that we've gotten through the month the way we have to this point. so, we shall see. up next, chips. they're not doing well today. we'll tell you what's sending semis lower this afternoon. ...to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.

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♪ we're in the market zone. cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. plus leslie picker on what is putting pressure on schwab shares today. steve kovach on the selloff in semiconductors. some names are down quite substantially. i'll turn to mike santoli. dow is down about 300. nasdaq's the big loser today. we're going to get to kovach for the specifics but software is no good, adobe is ugly. the magnificent seven, all of them are down. >> it is the heavy index names that are taking the brunt of it today. this is one of those days where, you know, actually below the surface, it's not quite as bad, but i do think there is some pent-up volatility or at least unrealized volatility the last couple of weeks, getting liberated today, you might say,

on the downside. you know, we've been pushing and pushing on rates, on ten-year yields, on oil prices and you know, we're approaching perhaps some perceived painthresholds. i'm not sure i see it as decisive just now. everyone's aware of the seasonal stuff, everyone's aware of what happens at least on a tendency basis after the options expiration in september, and so i think that was room for a little more choppiness. >> just to underscore that, this is an options expiration day and some would suggest looking at the charts that a week or so if not longer out from that can be pretty nasty. >> that's what the pattern has been. i was just looking at some of the longer term numbers that go back, like to 50-plus years for this, like, kind of one to two-week period in late september. and you have had, like, 55% of them to the downside, but not really that terrible in the last ten years. kind of 50/50. worst drop is 2.1% over that period. so, it's not as if it's -- it's

cataclysmic, but if you're doing a weight of the evidence, the seasonal set-up is not one of the reasons to be incrementally bullish. mid-4,400s, though, is kind of where that collection of options exposures seem to be, so we'll see if it matters. we're talking about a hundred s&p points down from here. plus. before we get to the august lows. >> tough week. just to note a couple stocks. netflix down more than 10% on the week. nvidia down about 3.66% on the week. you got carnage to be found. not everything is like that. leslie picker, schwab, nasty day for that stock. what's happening here? >> schwab down more than 2% right now, pressured by steep declines in client inflows for the month of august, the brokerage saying in a release that core net new assets amounted to $4.9 billion last month. that's a third of the level schwab brought in during july. there's a reason for this. the firm attributes the steep decline to asset attrition as it

integrates the ameritrade business. schwab spent the labor day weekend to convert former ameritrade clients and migrating $1.3 trillion in assets from investment firms and 3.6 million retail accounts. total client assets were over $8 trillion at the end of august, up 22% from 2022. >> thank you, leslie. you know, mike, i mean, you still have this tremendous competition to everything from money markets where you're, you know, you can get in certain ends of it, 5%, and you can blame whatever you want on the consolidation of things here, that and the other, but it remains an issue and it's going to for some time. >> it does remain an issue, although in this instance, i think we knew to be worried about what the paper losses were at the schwab bank and all the funding cost issues. we were past that, but i think one of the things that people who invest in charles schwab have not really had to wonder about is, are they going to

continue to be a major collector of investor assets? because that has been the machine. they've just been kind of sweeping it up. and so, i can understand being jarred by the fact that they had this shortfall with the transition of the platforms from td ameritrade. that being said, even if you're moving a money market, you can still keep it at schwab, and i think that's what they're seeing. they're seeing the so-called client sorting is, we're not going to keep it in bank deposits at schwab bank. we're going to keep it in money market assets where they don't charge a fee, necessarily. but i see why people are skittish about this particular move. i doubt it's a long-term trend. >> look at that. down near 30% year to date. steve kovach, some carnage today in the chips too. >> that's an understatement. several chip names falling today following that reuters report saying taiwan semiconductor told its suppliers to delay deliveries of chip-making equipment. that includes names like applied materials, falling as much as 5% during intraday trading today. that company makes the machines that actually make the chips

that tsmc uses. other chip-related names falling too, scott, and they're among the worst performers in the s&p 500 today. on semiconductor, down nearly 4%. amd, down about 4.5%. intel, down more than 2% at one point. lam research down more than 5% at one point. and tsmc itself down more than 2.5% right now. now, behind tsmc's request from suppliers, that uncertain demand environment, especially in china, that's causing some consumer electronics companies to order fewer chips to manage their inventory. it's a story we've been hearing all summer long, scott. >> yeah. no doubt. steve kovach, thanks to you as well. not going to take too much to push some of these stocks around, just given where we are. >> yes. where they got to in the first half of this year and you know, some people have been looking at that and said, nvidia aside, that it was being pretty aggressive in pricing in a durable turn to the semi cycle, so yeah, not too surprising to see that the convention is not necessarily strong enough to defend against these kinds of

pulldowns. >> major averages here. dow is down just about 300 points at the moment. we are red across the board. it's been a rough stretch. >> exit right at 4,450. >> we'll talk about that more next week, i'm sure. it's been an ugly run. mike santoli, thank you. good weekend to you. i'll send it into o.t. with jon fortt. well, everything red to end the week. that's the scorecard on wall street, but winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." we are going to talk with the ceo of databricks, the mega unicorn software company that just raised an additional half a billion dollars at a $43 billion valuation. we'll find out if an ipo might be in the cards. plus we'll talk about to venture capitalist and all-in podcast host david sacks about his read on the ipo market, investing in a.i. and more. also