thank you. >> see you soon. >> let's take a quick final check on the markets before we hand things over. futures have been in the red, at least for the last hour and a half or so. we'll see right now that the dow futures are indicated off by about 18 points. s&p futures down by five. got about a half hour to go to the opening bell, so that could all change. we've been watching yields and so far it liooks like the two-year is well above 5% at the moment. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks kicking off the week mostly in the red with plenty to monitor. a fed decision this week, the auto strike enters day four, ipos on deck, oil, nearly 92. our road map begins, though, with the big week ahead for investors. the fed's next decision, front and center. we're going to talk to treasury

secretary yellen later this morning. auto strikes, day four with both sides digging in. the uaw rejecting the latest wage hike proposals while both ford and gm announce temporary layoffs due to the ongoing walkout. plus apple reportedly seeing strong iphone 15 demand in china, and tim cook says the vision pro remains on track. let's begin with the markets as we do kick off a new week. jim, we didn't get to check in with you on friday. any degradation, do you think, in this idea of a soft landing? even "the journal" today takes a look at how it gets a little tougher from here. >> i do think that this auto strike is -- has potential to be very disruptive. i think that oil, clearly, to me, is headed to a hundred before it goes lower. that's negative. the higher interest rates are starting to buy. there's a really interesting call for lennar, stewart miller, the executive chairman last week, he was talking about the idea that the buyer is getting

used to the idea that they have to pay more. that's the embedded inflation that jay powell most fears. so, i don't think it's such a great week so far. setting up as a bad week. >> it is. >> yeah. i think so. >> it hasn't even begun yet. aren't you getting ahead of yourself? >> i think i was asked to project as opposed to reflect. i don't think i was asked to talk about -- yeah, i did -- >> what do we need to be here for if you've already told us? >> nobody says you have to be here. i don't care. >> would you really not care? >> no, i would moan the difference. >> that's a nice way to start the week. little love. >> i'm talking about a gauntlet that the fed has to run, and the fed may feel that it's terrific and then i'd read through the -- some of the things that the uaw wants, and i think, well, okay, that's a big part, you know, lot of employees. >> yes. >> and if you looked at what they're asking for, and you're

jay powell, you would say, okay, game over. i failed. because the hikes that he's talking about, that shawn fain wants, are radical. >> are they radical? >> they're radical -- you visited a tesla plant. >> i did in austin, texas. >> tesla in 2027, workers will be -- the labor cost per vehicle, that's really important, is $1,625. uaw proposal for right now is $3,219. so, how do you be competitive if you're twice expensive per vehicle? labor costs. >> it's not easy. >> it's not easy, carl. there's a sage-like answer. >> but it wasn't easy going in. what we have talked about, the fact that tesla has higher margin, something that musk has been willing to sacrifice in terms of market share if he has to by cutting price because he has that ability to do it. and this won't make it any easier for them to compete, no. no doubt.

at what point does he have to start paying his workers more money, or is that not something he has to worry about? >> i don't think he has to worry about it. it takes about three years to build a factory in mexico. there are some pueblo factories, beautiful area, and might take only two years. i think at a certain point the uaw is going to face a lockout. no one's talking about that, but i think there's going to be a lockout. there are enough engines being built by ford right now that shawn fain seems to have all the cards. he may be carrying a two, three, four, five jack if they do a lockout and nobody's talking about a lockout. it's going to have to be front and center. >> thinking of huge histories of lockouts. caterpillar was a big one back in the day. we had this discussion on friday, the idea that manufacturers who have been burned so badly on international supply chains and are working so

hard to reshore, you think would u-turn yet again? >> when you look at ford, it's a very different situation than the others in terms of how much of their workforce is unionized, and the fact that it has meant nothing, i believe, has surprised ford. uaw employees, 56,000. stellantis, 40. they're the only oam to add union jobs since 2007. lost percentage of temporary workers. yet, they were struck by everybody else. so i think that ford is not -- i think ford is the one that shawn fain is playing with fire. >> and they did go bankrupt. >> they have five months of pay. five months -- >> there's gm and the old chrysler, wards of the state for a period of time. >> right, and i just think that the idea that ford couldn't do a lockout, they can do a lockout.

a lockout is very dangerous, as you said, with caterpillar. a lockout says, okay, look, guys, we have a big union, but we're going to break it. >> doesn't sound good for anybody. >> war. >> isn't good for everybody. >> what's it good for? >> absolutely nothing. >> we'll see. that's going to be up to the rank and file to some degree, is something we're keeping an eye on as the strike does enter the fourth day. phil lebeau is on the ground in toledo, ohio. >> we are across from the jeep plant where they build the wrangler and the gladiator. you see the picketers behind me. it's like this at probably eight or nine of the different entrances around this plant. here's the latest in terms of what's happening with the uaw. you guys were talking about the pay proposals that were released over the weekend. stellantis now saying we're up to 21%. ford's at 21%. gm is at 20%. basically, they're all around 20%, 21%. the white house is sending a

team to detroit, but let's stress this. they are not here to mediate when they get here. they are supposed to be a conduit for conversation so that the negotiations can move along. i'm not sure how much good that does, and finally, you've got general motors saying it may lay off up to 2 how to workers in kansas because it gets stampings from the uaw plant in missouri where they're on strike. we may see some layoffs there. just a few minutes ago, this was uaw president shawn fain on "morning joe" talking about the state of negotiations. >> things are still status quo, moving slowly. we had some meetings over the weekend, but we still have a long way to go, and that's going to be up to the companies on how this plays out. we'll see how things progress the next few days and if we have to amp up pressure, that's what we're going to do.

>> that was about an eight-minute interview. that's the tone of the entire interview, guys. there was no optimism. there was nothing to take away from that interview with shawn fain this morning that made you say, yeah, i think they're close to getting something resolved. as you take a look at the big three -- shares of the big three, keep in mind that you have ford and stellantis scheduled to have bargaining sessions today with the uaw. gm, they had their bargaining session with the uaw yesterday and that's where we are, guys, right now. i'm not optimistic that we're going to see this resolved any time soon. just simply reading the body language, the comments, interviews, conversations i'm having with people at the automakers as well as with the uaw, i just think they're still very far apart. >> phil, does it matter that the different auto companies are configured differently in terms of the union? in other words, ford's got a lot of usainnion jobs. or is it just shawn fain is just scorched earth and doesn't care,

it's capital versus labor? >> i think it's the latter, jim. not that he doesn't care, but i don't think -- and we've heard this from ford executives. they have said, look, we employ more uaw members than anyone else. we want to do right by our workers. look, they have made it very clear with ford, with some of the comments that they made last week, that ford is no different than stellantis and gm in regards to, we want close to 40%. we want a 32-hour workweek. we want the reinstatement of defined pension benefits. we want an increase in retiree benefits. we want cost of living adjustments. that's what the uaw is telling them. and they're not saying, well, you know what, ford, you've got a few more workers than stellantis and gm, maybe we like you a little bit more. there's no indication of that at all. >> that's incredible. >> phil, appreciate that. we'll talk later this morning, obviously. so many moving pieces.

phil lebeau in toledo today. jim, the strike is what one of goldman calls q4 potholes in addition to student loans and this idea of a government shutdown, which we're going to start kicking around here. >> gthere's a terrific piece frm david kostin, saying the ipo market is open for business. i think that instacart is going to be a dud. >> i'd be careful with saying it's going to be a dud only because it's such a tiny offering, jim. >> you're absolutely right. >> i think it won't be reflective of fundamentals. >> you're right, you're right. >> $200 million worth of stock. >> what i mean is that this is a company that, if they don't make it really tight float would not do well, because it's a down round. but you're right. and goldman wants to price it so it hops. >> you're right. it may be a successful ipo, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's reflective of a company that is going gangbusters. >> yeah, and that's what i'm

really saying is that what you want is a series of companies coming public that are both excite but also are something that, you know, that say something about the economy, and that's not doing anything. the potholes are real. by the way, last week, lennar, when they talked about housing, you know, they're just not giving you what the fed wants. the fed wants mortgage rates to be up and housing down. there was an overbuild of 500,000 apartments built, two years ago, 500,000 apartments built last year. there's too many apartments. they kind of got that wrong. but there's a number of brokerages that boost lennar numbers. lennar reported and no one seemed to care. i thought it was a good quarter. i think you've got going against -- going against the potholes is that there's labor. there is labor. there are jobs. lennar said, look, we have trades. we can build things. so, that's good.

but the potholes are real. everyone's so convinced that the fed is -- it's either done or it's ready to just skip. i don't see it that way. we do not have a loose labor market. we don't. now, it's true that you can find workers and that's positive. and i think people have to go back to work because of student loans, but i don't think it's clear that the fed might be done this year. i would not say that. >> really? >> no. geez, i think that there's still a head of steam here. >> impact to the strike that we've just spent the last five minutes talking about? >> even morgan stanley on friday said, probably going to keep them on hold at least this month. >> look, i was listening to shawn fain, and that was fightening. that was just -- listen, we want our fair share, but the fair share is going to come out of one thing we don't talk about. we don't talk about the shareholders. make no mistake about it. these companies are not going to be bankrupt. they're going to be uninvestable. >> isn't that the just part of the pendulum between capital and

labor? >> i'm not used to labor being as strong as they are. >> not used to labor actually getting a piece of the pie. >> they want more -- did you think that they would already give them cola and 20%? c.o.l.a. is dangerous. we haven't seen that in a long time. >> cost of living. >> although, union membership is a fraction of what it was in the '70s. that's why some people think it is different. >> there is a ripple effect, but you do take out -- look, i think that may keep them on hold, but i think that if you have a lockout, i don't know if the rank and file is so in favor of this man who won by very little margin. the previous people who ran the union, bunch approof them went jail. wasn't like they went to yale. >> yeah. >> not touching that one? >> decided not to. there's nowhere good to go with that. >> the compares are easy. look, the previous management was the cardinals in the second half. am i clear? >> we'll talk about nfl season over the weekend.

congrats, by the way, belatedly, on thursday. >> thank you. a win's a win. before anyone says, oh, they didn't look so good, oh, go to hell. >> the state of demand for apple's iphone 15 line-up in china. plus what tim cook is saying about the vision pro. sara's going to sit down with the treasury secretary this morning exclusively at 10:00 a.m. eastern time and there's ton a of upgrades and downgrades. lockheed, dash, carvana, paypal, arm. t possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. (dad) oh yeah! (mom) bringing in a new roommate to save money? is that the plan? (dad) well we gotta find someway to save. so say hi to glenn from work. (glenn) hey! that's my mom. (mom) yeah... i think i have a much better plan.

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presiapple is going to be i focus. china's global times says the company's witnessing strong demand for the phone in their country. meanwhile, goldman reiterates a buy on the stock, said lead times for the pro and the pro max suggest demand outpacing supply. wedbush, jim, as well, says they think maybe 8 to 10% above what the 14 was doing. >> i think there's a misconception between -- of what wall street was looking for. they felt it would be tepid and turns out not, as opposed to just those of us who just think, every time there's an iteration, there's people who go from the 12 and the 11 and the 10, and wall street seems tone. about that. but i always wait. david, maybe you can help me to see what t-mobile's offering, what verizon is offering, what at&t is offering. that's how people buy phones.

>> their promotional activity has been no more than it has been in the past. i know some analysts have pointed to an increase in it. i'm not sure that's accurate. but i think what is interesting is going into this launch, there seems to be a belief that response might be tepid for upgrades and that's not going to be the case. >> it's not. >> and we talked a great deal about china and this potential ban that was discussed or at least reported on for government or employees of state-owned enterprises. that doesn't seem to be impacting anything right now. china news is so tough to parse. >> i know that you -- you laughed at me about the pictures last week. my channel check, so to speak. but it's a chinese government publication. there's not some rogue -- well, there's not a lot of rogue chinese action, particularly because they detained some of the wealth advisors at evergreen, and i don't think

that was because they got the yield curve wrong. i think it may have been more pointed than that. >> meantime, tim cook was on cbs sunday morning, talked to jon dickerson about using the vision pro. >> i'm using it on a regular basis. >> how do you use it? >> i watched the entire third season of "ted lasso" on the vision pro, and of course, there's some things that i have access to that other people don't have access to. >> has it been more complicated? are the puzzles that you have faced with creating it the same kinds you would face with an iphone? >> no, it's more complex. and so, it requires innovation and not only the development but also in the manufacturing. >> but is it on track? >> it is on track. >> you got to like that. >> yes. and look, i think we're going to have to get used to something that i know is -- david will make fun of me right now, but later, he'll be using it pretty much constantly.

david -- i just turned you off, i turned you on, turned you off. >> that thing cost $3,500. >> so, maybe t-mobile gives it to you. >> they're not going to. >> how do you know? >> they're not going to. >> i think that you may be wrong. >> no. $3,500. they've got to reduce the price to make it a mass market. >> could you give a discount? >> could youive a discount? >> carl, sorry. >> zip it? is that it? >> i just made him disappear. i put up the grand canyon. have you watched, by the way? "morning show"? >> on apple? >> no. >> this season. >> the reviews have been good. >> oh my god, it's unbelievable. i mean, the control room, the outage, i don't want to give anything away, but i found it riveting, and i think that i would like to watch it lying down by myself with a vision pro. okay, with my wife, maybe. >> what do you mean?

if you have it on, it doesn't matter who's with you. anybody could be with you. >> but i'm married. >> congratulations. well done. >> well, i think, i could be -- invite a bunch of people over and watch it like this. >> great social experience. >> hamm pretty good? jon hamm was needing a good role and i think he found one. >> we're a couple weeks behind. we'll catch up. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received. at&t business. we've got your back, road warriors. because we know you're picking up the pace,

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the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ chips are going to be interesting today. nvidia's your biggest ndx laggard, along with arm, down about 3% as bernstein does

initiate arm underperform 46. although there's other calls as uthe ura descpgdes micron. don't forget, you can catch us any time anywhere.

>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. all right, we're going to get to a "mad dash" and i'm going to be surprised too because he and i didn't talk about it during the break. what are you going to do? >> micron. this is very important. there's a deutsche bank upgrade and there were a number of positives. they're talking about finally, the inventory glut is behind them. they also say that they -- we are at the inflection point. they have something that's more proprietary than commodity. this stock can be a leader, and there are others that can go wit. i mean, for instance, historically, you might find that amd will go with it because there's a big pc component. now -- >> that is if deutsche bank is correct in their analysis. >> if they're correct, exactly.

and trying to predict the bottom so far has been a fool's game. just a fool's game. but i've got to tell you, david, if it's true, this group is a leadership group, and it's been just kind of weak for weeks now. i mean, obviously, intel would benefit from this. >> right. >> i had not found anything other than nvidia that's a positive. nvidia's been one-way street, down since they reported that great number. so, maybe micron sparks a little life. it wouldn't surprise me. >> we talked about the movement in nvidia directly after the report of the quarter. stock market hasn't done particularly well since then either, has it? >> no. so far, it hasn't done that well. there are individual stocks that have done well. >> i can name seven of them that outperformed the 31% in the nasdaq. >> amazon's been terrific. >> meta, tesla. >> tesla's amazing. this is anecdotal. how long will people ignore the

fact that alphabet, google, has an incredible football package? and maybe brings in more people. look, i know when you talk about these things and you talk about the nfl, it's always anecdotal but you did have that monday night football being the best. you do have a surprisingly good option in alphabet, much better, i think, than directv. you have gambling. i know from draftkings, out of control positive in the fourth quarter. you actually have fourth quarter action that's shocked people and it's almost like vegas is involved. i know that's not true. i just think that people are misjudging, and i think alphabet may be a real winner in this. we cannot dismiss the nfl as a factor in our lives, that monday night football is quizzical, because obviously, jets-bills -- the bills market, buffalo, last night, look, not a giant market. >> but you're right. the fade on nvidia, the fade on oracle, the fade on adobe, and

yet google has managed to resist all of those. >> adobe was a remarkable quarter, but alphabet google, i think people are starting to think, you know what? maybe they can do even 10 million perhaps in tv. and also, by the way, the cord cut. it's relentless, and i don't know -- lot of people, by the way -- in the meantime, we do not have any -- i just find a lot of people aren't watching the traditional shows. they just don't watch them. and what's promoted for the most part during football is whatever plus offering anybody has. i guess i got to go to "yellowstone" just to kill those ads. >> it's the monetary fund for the unga this week. at the nasdaq, it's former vice president al gore along with key investors, founders and executives across the climate ecosystem kicking off nyc climate week here, jim.

>> i didn't know that the imf was kind of like the giants who traveled to the cardinals. kind of surprising. the imf, kind of a boisterous group. where's that going to open, the imf? >> i don't know. doesn't trade here. >> oh, it doesn't trade. okay. >> sorry. sorry, jim. >> well, it's just that sometimes you have these -- if you would engage by clapping, then this imf's a lot more popular than i thought. >> feeling good about imf, huh? >> i just feel rosy. >> isn't that also the impossible mission force? how's paramount doing right now? not great. >> the phrase sell rosh hashanah gets tossed around a lot as the seasonally weakest week of the year. >> it sure is, but that would mean that by friday, you got to start buying. obviously, that's like sell in

may and go away, but i think it's held up better. >> i think since '88, the week following september opex is down 27 of 35. >> there have been weeks ahead of yom kippur where you're just stunned at the lack of buying interest. i'm not sure exactly how they want to draw a conclusion there. >> i'm not sure there is one to be drawn. but apple is up. nvidia is down another 3%. >> nvidia -- i have a new dog, and unless i rename this dog nvidia, this dog is the most stupid dog i've ever seen. this dog has no idea what it's doing. it's a mutt. and i -- >> this is ragu. >> and i guess what is the proper word you're allowed to say? urinate. urinates exactly when you don't want it to urinate. like, usually when there's a big fourth quarter stance, that dog is urinating. i mean, it's like, wow. we got to put it on.

oh, stop trading. i mean, honestly. during the comeback, the cardinals comeback -- i mean, the giants comeback, i got to tell you, this dog was urinating every single possession. >> very excited, obviously, about the giants. you got a giants fan on your hands. >> i hadn't thought of that. should i call him eli? eli, get over here. >> daniel. go with daniel or jones. just call him jones-y. >> i don't know. i don't want to necessarily say that the dog is the dumbest dog i've ever seen but i think he's not mensa, clearly. >> give the dog time. >> he's got general graduate. >> let's talk a little clorox. >> okay. >> it was back on -- in mid-august, august 14th, the company identified unauthorized activity on some of its information technology systems. after becoming aware, it said it began to take steps to stop and

remediate it, including taking certain systems offline. now we find that taking those systems off line-up actually stalled business a bit. it's forced the company to take certain systems offline, implement more manual ordering and processing procedures, and it will transition back to normal automated ordering soon, as in next week, but right now, it's got an elevated level of consumer product availability issues. and it's going to have a material impact on q1 results. this is, again, a cyber intrusion. you see them all the time. having an impact here and then, of course, we talked a bit about mgm, caesar's, which suffered similar cyberattacks. >> we never really went into it. >> we haven't, and they chose to approach them somewhat differently, and it's interesting. it's an interesting question for companies at this point, many of which have insurance. do you pay or not? caesar's paid. now, i don't -- cnbc.com

reporting it could have been a $15 million ransom. caesar's paid. most of that is covered by insurance. mgm didn't pay. and mgm's stuff was offline for a longer period of time, i think, than caesar's. that's an interesting question as well. in this world we live in now where cyberattacks, of course, are quite common. do you pay? you've got insurance for it. why not just pay? >> because i think that the government's going to say, if you pay, it's going to be like what we did with kidnapping. we won't allow you to pay. the government's already -- >> we don't negotiate with terrorists? >> the government's said, you got to report any hack. but i thought what was so interesting about the clorox hack is they still can't -- they haven't been able to figure out how bad it's been. impact will be material but they don't know the extent. >> little visibility to the extent of financial fallout. it is -- i mean, these companies, again, mgm had to go back to writing everybody's information on a piece of paper.

give me your credit card number. clorox, you would assume, manual ordering is probably somewhat similar. it's like taking you back to the '70s. >> the company's been very forthcoming. i had todd mckinnon on from okta. >> okta was caesar's and mgm. it was a social hack where they got i.t. to re -- to give new credentials to people they thought were employees but weren't. >> one of the things that todd mckinnon emphasized to me, and i think it's interesting, carl, the way people work, but there were people who asked for information, and the -- these are service dog employees. i mean that very positively. they wanted to be forthcoming, wanted to get the operation done and thought they might be holding up the operation, so they gave the information away and that is not something that okta can prevent. okta came on to say, look, we can't prevent employees from being uneducated and just saying, hey, listen, let's send them that. by the way, you know who is the

most -- who is the toughest and has really figured this out? because they were the most hacked? verizon. they were easily hacked. and so now, if you try to get help from verizon, you have to in-person. it's very difficult. that's what it's coming to. we're going to have education, and every employee is going to say, i can't help. >> we may have the tools to identify ourselves in ways that are not easily replicated. >> right, but i think whether to pay or not to pay is going to be a government decision soon. not going to be up to the companies. >> you've got two companies that approach it differently, but one suffered more than the other. >> but if you decide across the board that no one's allowed to pay, then i think we get the government involved. right now, the -- look, there's companies that are really unbelievable at cybersecurity, and i think the game they're playing is whack-a-mole. nikesh aurora will tell you, we have artificial intelligence, and we have a leg up on the bad

guys. what you want to do is find the car in the parking lot where the doors aren't locked. that's the easiest one. >> some people do. >> bad guys are good at doing that and exploiting it. >> interesting because the quarters from the cyber companies, cyber software, haven't needed high-profile hacks to drive the stock. >> no. like the old days, and my travel trust owns palo alto, and i just am kind of blown away by how good they are. they are using artificial intelligence, but there is -- i think david's right. there's going to be fundamental debate about pay/no pay. if you want realistic, you have to watch -- here i go again. but you have to watch the morning show, because what it -- will you listen to me? >> this is the new "narcos." jim's latest obsession. >> i've literally never gotten through a show on apple tv. i go in excited and by episode five of all of them -- >> you're plus cutting. keeping the cord and plus cutting. >> i have it.

i like the services. >> you like the comedies on abc, nbc? >> no, i don't. >> the notion is, pay/no pay, and there -- whether it's a stance that anybody really cares about. the media, you would care, but i think that no one would have cared if clorox had paid. but linda -- >> went don't even know what the ask was in clorox. we're talking about caesar's. >> you mean like their hidden valley ranch? too much hidden valley ranch? i like hidden valley ranch. >> they seem to have identified who the potential hackers were in the case of the gaming companies. >> i think it's time that somebody went to jail. i don't understand why it's not more vigorously prosecuted. all you have to do is have a couple guys go to jail and i think the others might think twice about trying to get as much kingsfords as possible. what was it? listen, if you don't pay us, we're going to make you make more kingsfords than you can use? what's the point here? what are they doing? >> i don't know, jim.

>> do you like hidden valley? >> do i like hidden valley? the dressing for my salad? >> yeah, the dressing. >> no, i'm not a user of hidden valley. >> it's delicious, david. >> is it? i have a gas grill, so i don't need the charcoal. but i use bleach. i do like bleach. >> you do use bleach. >> yes. >> sure. >> well, maybe they -- >> you have to be careful with it, though. always make sure to mix it with a lot of water. >> don't put it in your contact lens? >> no. >> that's really helpful. >> well, i was just told arm is now down 6%, jim. >> that's brutal. >> i'm sure you've read the bernstein initiation. >> arm is expensive. there's no doubt about it. arm opened up -- that last spurt in the last half hour of trading on the day it came public made it go from being a company that you could get behind to being a company that is clearly the most expensive semiconductor company, and now they are in a lot of places. they're in auto.

they're -- obviously, they dominate cellular phone, but when you compare it to cadence and synopsis, which were the -- goes with the comparison i used, it's just too expensive. that said, look, i mean, they have things -- they were the ones that jensen huang decided to pair. people are using $40 billion price tag. that's what jensen was willing to pay. i don't think you're going to get that. >> it was a few years ago. >> right. >> that was 2019. >> before -- >> i'm sorry, 2020. >> before grace hopper. and the grace hopper 200 is the one that everybody wants. >> now we are right around a $60 billion value. that said, it's still -- listen, it is seen as a successful ipo. they launched it. it went well. it's still trading nicely above the $51 price of which it was offered, and it does set up for this week with the two. we've got clavio and instacart. >> i'm so glad you pronounced it. >> i'm pretty sure i got it right. >> it's clavio.

that's enterprise software, and the enterprise software is the -- that one's really small. but people love enterprise software, david. >> right. >> they bathe in it. this is like -- this is like alturex. how do you like that? enterprise software has been -- >> you said -- you've been saying that b to b, not b to c. >> it's b to b, and everyone's trying to make all this stuff b to c, and forget it, it's hidden. crowdstrike is moving up. >> well, b to c with a.i. will -- generative a.i. applications, but i don't know when we're going to see that. >> name me a b to c. >> i don't know when you're able to do this with the watch and something happens, cool. >> you know who the biggest user so far is? the banks. and you never see it. >> the banks are big users, yes. >> and the banks, by the way -- >> a lot of them are interesting it internally. a.i., we have to distinguish -- >> here we go. >> we have to distinguish between a.i. and generative a.i. a.i. has been around for a long

time. generative a.i. the idea of asking questions and getting very detailed responses in the language that you understand well. that's different. >> look, i think the insurance companies and the -- these auto finance companies are the best use case because they need to change very quickly. >> when i talk about generative, it's not just that. it's also code, which may, in fact, even prove to be more important, the ability for it to write code or fill in large sections of code. >> well, but i love the fact that you can speak and -- i mean, frank slootman from -- i mean, he was -- snowflake -- he said that you can speak and not even speak in a necessarily coherent way and get a good answer. >> they'll figure it out. it will figure you out. >> it's too smart. there was a great piece in the "ft" this weekend about how it really works and identifies the words around it and how clever it is. i still think it's got a way to go. there was a piece in the "times" where i forgot -- i shouldn't say which paper, but a professor gave -- had it take the test, and it didn't do so well.

>> it's like eighth, ninth grade right now. but this is chatgpt 4, wherever alphabet is on theirs, but when we get to 6, 7, 8, 10, it's fo going to be really strong. is that it? >> when we get to 8? right? i mean -- >> this is the best thing that apple's ever come up with. >> i'm turning you off big time. i need information, i need it now. >> click. jim, energy. i got a lot. valero and marathon leading today. we did get to $91.70 on crude. you see yardeni? >> i will tell you that iea had been saying that the u.s. is not upping production. that's not true anymore. the u.s. production has, in the last month, starting to really jump. >> this is why citi is a little dovish on oil right now, because

of non-opec supply. >> i think people don't understand that they have turned it on, and that has been -- saudi's a swing. russia's a swing, and we're a swing. and up until just now, in the last few weeks, we have held back because we didn't know if it's real. the more it stays here, the more we can pump. we've been pumping in the last -- the numbers are -- the ring count was plus two on friday, but the amount of oil we can pump from individual wells is rather extraordinary. let's remember, point-blank, that the u.s. is producing more and that will knock the price down. >> you're not calling for a hundred? >> a hundred and go down. by that point, the u.s. output will be clear to everyone, because the oil companies are getting -- they're starting to get bullish, and they have been very bearish and they've been spending a lot of money returning money to shareholders. that's been their goal. but the last couple weeks is really the definition of pumping like mad.

>> of our megacaps that we keep an eye on, apple up, alphabet up, amazon, but tesla's down another 3%. >> even though they have this tie-up with saudi. >> they don't necessarily have a tie-up with saudi, but there are reports they're in early talks to build an ev factory in saudi arabia. by the way, erdogan apparently also asking musk to build a factory in turkey. macron a few months bag wanted him to do something in france. everyone wants elon to build a factory in their country. unclear whether that will happen in saudi, of course, but there are plenty of ways that they could woo him, one would expect, including apparently the right to purchase certain quantities of minerals and metals from countries including congo. >> well, all i can tell you is pacific electric has an amazing relationship with elon musk and they're trying to produce as much power, equal to five diablo canyon nuclear reactors, just taking the energy back.

extraordinary. way to be able to reduce -- we could be in a position where we go to a -- not a deficit but a surplus. >> you plugged in your car and it's taking the power from your battery? >> right to the grid. it's really, i think, remarkable. and musk is the leader there. >> yep. yeah, he saw that coming a long time ago. still to come this morning, sara's exclusive with the treasury secretary is at the top of the hour. important week for treasury and of course the fed will get a decision this week, along with housing data. the fed blackout, though, is going to lead to some vacuum on how bonds respond, but for the time being, you do have the two-year at 5.03%. anythi

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen in midtown, manhattan, i'm getting ready to speak with treasury secretary janet yellen in a first on cnbc interview, she is here along with president biden for the u.n. general assembly and for climate week. we'll talk about the u.s. priorities but there are fresh questions facing the u.s. economy that we will get to in just a few moments, including uaw strike, the deficit. speaking of the deficit, someone who is worried about the deficit right now is ken griffin, citadel hedge fund titan, but a good chunk of that interview has not aired yet, including the big question on everyone's minds, whether the gop mega donor will continue backing governor ron desantis for his presidential election bid. let's listen. >> we're now through the first

debate and i'll tell you what i'm on the sidelines who to support in this election cycle. in fact, it probably doesn't matter. donald trump is made the martyr by the legal system. he's right now the runway favorite in the republican primary and there's no real contender against joe biden who, with all due respect, it's time for him to enjoy retirement. >> griffin is as frank as ever. we talked more about desantis' campaign strategy and what a trump presidency would look like. also talked about whether he's investing in china and what he thinks of onrm'snean portrayal of him in "dumb money." special edition of cnbc leaders, 8:00 p.m. eastern time. more "squawk on the street" when we come back. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network.

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we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. transplant received. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch. loving this pay bump on our allowance.

wonder where mom and dad got the extra money?ton. maybe they won the lottery? maybe they inherited a fortune? maybe buried treasure? maybe it fell off a truck? or maybe they switched to xfinity mobile - the fastest mobile service. save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. now i can buy that electric scooter. i'm starting a private equity fund that specializes in midcap. you do you. switch to xfinity mobile today. let's get to jim and stop trading. >> there was a piece that came out by lisa ellis this morning, which was a downgrade of paypal. a lot of talk about remember you got a new ceo coming in in ten days. i find we're at this moment the revenge of mastercard and visa,

that old, no. they're not working. you can stay away. you want to be in the old fins, mastercard is doing incredibly well. doing great job. that moment where i thought that everything was going to go with the new guys that ship has sailed. >> yeah. alex begins in a few days, and they talk mostly about apple pay competition. >> apple pay is 10 years, i think apple pay is -- they're very bullish. i can tell you that. goldman, i don't know. you spoke with david solomon. i think they're getting hurt on apple pay. what do i know, they don't break it out. >> they don't. they would say consumer such a small percentage of the overall revenues and clearly not reading into it any longer. ? you can sell it ap.

i'm sure somebody wants it. >> you had high hopes for that card. >> i did. there was a shuffle at goldman, the person i was close to, went to another firm and -- but i am very -- now i'm bullish on what apple is doing, not what goldman is doing. >> what about tonight. >> oracle got crushed, when they reported, went down to 108 intraday. this is from oracle cloud world. we'll see what happens. >> pick. >> hidden valley ranch. he doesn't realize it's head and shoulders, not the shampoo, above the others. >> i totally agree. there is no competition. >> you can make a lot of different things. >> we'll see you tonight, "mad money." 6:00 p.m. sara is one on one with the treasury secretary. don't go away.

good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. sara eisen live in new york city at a big interview with the treasure secretary janet yellen in a moment as the stocks kick

off the week in the red on some elevated yields and higher oil prices. sara, looking forward to the interview. >> see you in a few moments carl. secretary yellen in new york here for the u.n. general assembly along with president biden, here for climate week to draw attention to some of the economic risks of climate change. there are fresh concerns and questions about the u.s. economy. she's been banging the drum on the soft landing. we'll talk about that and the risks bubbling up including oil prices which continue to rise. i'll send it back to you, carl. >> see you in a minute. nahv out a moment ago. we go to diana olick. >> home builder sentiment fell 5 points in september according to the nhv solidly in negative territory. 50 the line between positive and negative, a 6 point drop in august. a year ago sentiment at 46.

builders blaming high mortgage rates which went over 7 and haven't budged. 32% said they cut prices in september, compared with 25% in august and the largest share since december of last year. the average discount 6% pfts sentiment index's three components, sales conditions fell 6 points to 51, sales expectations in the next six months also fell six points to 49. buyer traffic dropped 5 points to 30. builders say they're still benefitting from a lean existing home supply, a special question was added to the survey this month about who is buying and builders said 42% of their buyers were first-time buyers. that is much higher than the historical norm of about 27%. it's about rates. >> thank you. united autoworkers president shawn fain rejecting a 21% pay basketball game from stellantis calling it and other offers from

ford and gm a no go. phil lebeau has the latest for us this morning. phil? >> reporter: [ no audio ] >> i'm not hearing phil either. we can probably get that fixed relatively quickly. in fact so quickly we now have phil. take it away. >> reporter: the magic of technology. let's talk about where things are with these negotiations right now, twice. you've got ford and stellantis resuming talks today with the uaw. they were holding them over the weekend and they're going to be back at the bargaining table. gm was there yesterday. the uaw president shawn fain says if things don't improve they are ready to amp up, read into that what you will in terms of what amp up means, the white house is sending a team here to detroit not to mediate, but to assist in some fashion with the dialog between the automakers

and the uaw. does that move the needle with shawn fain? here he is about an hour ago on "morning joe". >> this battle is not about the president, it's not about the former president or any other person prior to that. this battle is about the workers standing up for economic and social justice and getting their fair share because they're fed up with going backwards. >> reporter: and as you take a look at shares of gm, ford and stellantis keep in mind we are starting to see the ripple effects, guys. gm may lay off up to 2,000 workers at its fairfax, kansas plant, where they build the malibu, cadillac ct 4. that plant gets stappings from the gm plant in missouri. the uaw is on strike in wentzville. if you're not getting stampings there they're not being sent. that's the latest from out here

across from the jeep plant in toledo, ohio. >> phil, appreciate that. phil lebeau in toledo watching the strike. back to sara eisen as we said with a special guest. hey, sara. >> hi, carl. thank you very much. i am here with treasury secretary janet yellen. thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us here in new york. >> thanks for the invitation. >> i'll pick up where phil left off and i know you're not involved in the negotiations around the uaw, your colleagues are doing that, but how are you thinking about the impact or potential impact of this strike on the u.s. economy? >> well, look, we want to see the two sides come to a win-win agreement. president biden has made clear he expects them to work hard to negotiate 24/7 to get to a solution, and so we're hoping that that will happen soon. >> because you have to be worried about inflation, i would think, just as it's starting to come down, supply chain disruptions are a risk here,

aren't they? >> well, you know, i think it's premature to be making forecasts about what it means for the economy. it would depend very much on how long the strike lasts and exactly who's affected by it. important point i think is that the two sides need to narrow their disagreements and to work for a win-win, a contract that's good, good for the workers and for the industry as well. the industry has been doing well and the president wants to see the workers come out ahead as well. >> it's part of a string of strikes that we have seen -- hollywood, the writers, the rail workers, the teamsters, upcoming strike potentially for health care workers on the west coast. what do you think is driving all of this labor activism we haven't seen the likes of in

years? >> we have a good, strong labor market and the demand for workers has been high, and, you know, it's important for workers to be able to realize gains. the treasury department recently put out a kind of white paper about labor unions and the contribution they make to our economy, and we want to see good zobs that pay wages that enable people to live a good life, especially people with a college education, the president feels strongly in favor of collective bargaining and the ability to strike as part of that. >> it ultimately is just inflationary and disruptive, isn't it? >> i don't think we've a seen that, so, you know, it depends very much on the circumstances. >> you mentioned the strong labor market. it's been a tight labor market. obviously, millions of openings,

more than unemployed. it is starting to cool and i wonder what trajectory you think that will take? >> well, it is cooling, but it's -- the cooling does not involve significant layoffs. partly, it's people joining the labor market, so the supply of labor is increased as people have come back with participation is moved up. also, the strength of demand has cooled. you see that in the decline in the number of openings. the number of openings relative to the number of people looking for work is still quite high. that's a very healthy labor market, but not quite as high as it was and the fraction of workers who quit their jobs, that's sometimes a metric that gives insight into the -- just

how hot the labor market was. that was exceptionally high and it's also moved down to the kinds of levels we saw prepandemic, so we have a good, healthy labor market, but not quite as hot as it was and that's important because, obviously, our objective is to bring inflation down to 2%. >> you have been a big believer in the soft landing story. we've seen it play out so far, but aren't we just starting to see the impact of the lag effects of fed tightening? 525 basis points? how do you think about the timeline there? >> there are lags in the impact of monetary policy and the economy, and we would expect to see some impacts. i think we've certainly seen it in the housing market, but look, we still have a good, healthy labor market. consumer spending remains quite robust. we've seen strong industrial

production. i don't see any signs that the economy is in risk of a downturn and this is the best of all worlds, to see continued strength in the economy, a good, strong labor market, and inflation moving down. that is what we're seeing. >> do you have a time frame in mind of when we might see the peak lag and how severe it would be? >> i don't think anybody knows for sure, but credit continues to be available, although the rates are clearly higher. that does make a difference. it has made a difference in some sectors. you know, we're seeing some cooling in the economy, some slowdown of growth off record high levels, which is appropriate when the economy is operating at its potential. i'm pleased by what i see in the economy. i think we're achieving lowering inflation which is very important to households and

tremendously important objective, but still, a good, strong labor market. >> we are seeing lower inflation, which is why i'm wondering how you're thinking about the gas price move. big jump in the month of august. crude is back above $60 per barrel. the saudis are extending the production cuts through the end of the year. are you looking looking at taking any action on this front? >> the president wants to make sure gas prices remain affordable for americans. americans care a great deal about the price of gas they're still down $1.20 off their highs last summer although they have gone up recently. pandemic lockdowns, although chinese growth is slower than expected, china coming back online and the continuation of the production cuts by saudi arabia has lifted oil prices somewhat.

we're monitoring the situation very closely. the president has taken action over the last year. certainly the releases of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve have been important and oil prices are down and we'll continue to monitor that closely. >> i wonder how much faith you have in what you would potentially to if -- because we are losing progress on this front with oil prices rising? >> my expectation is that they will stabilize, but we'll just keep an eye on it. >> another headwind that people are looking at is the end of the moratorium on student loans. folks will have to start paying october 1st and we're wondering what impact that could have on consumer spending? it's a key demographic cohort. >> well, for some families, i think it will impact their spending. the president has offered up and the education department a new

set of student loan plans that should make these payments more affordable and will be widely available, but, yes, they will start up again and it could make a difference. >> you mean in consumer spending? >> it could make some differences. >> gdp as a risk factor? >> i don't know how large that is, but it's something to. >> watch. >> the other thing we're watching is the government and a potential shutdown again in two weeks to go. the republicans have this short-term funding bill out. not clear whether they have their party's full support and whether it would go anywhere in the senate. are you anticipating a shutdown? >> there's absolutely no reason for a shutdown. the senate republicans and democrats in the house and senate stand ready to enact appropriation bills that are consistent with the bipartisan agreement to lift the debt

ceiling and we want to see congress pass legislation that will create appropriations tore a continuing resolution. there's absolutely no reason for a shutdown, and we want congress to do its work of funding the government and keeping it open. >> but the time is running out, as you know. is that a -- could that have a potential economic impact if we see a shutdown? >> it could have some impact, but there is no reason for it to occur and we want congress to stay focused. we've got a good, strong economy as we've just discussed, and creating something, a situation that could cause a loss of momentum, is something we don't need as a risk at this point. >> some people think the reason we have such a good, strong economy in the face of all these interest rate hikes is all the fiscal spending we have seen.

the infrastructure act, american rescue plan, the inflation reduction act, the chips act, all of that stimulus working against what fed chair powell has been doing to try to slow the economy to fight inflation. do you agree? >> well, the infrastructure act, the chips act, the inflation reduction act, these are all long-term spending measures that will really boost the growth of the economy and add to its job creating capacity long term. the -- many of those bills were then paid for and, so i wouldn't regard it as net stimulus. i think the american rescue plan, which was stimulus, shielded families that could have been very badly impacted by the pandemic and kept a roof over their heads and food on the stable and made sure the fastest

group the united states economy is doing better than any economy around the world. we've not seen the long-term job losses scarring that easily could have occurred. the bipartisan agreement to raise the debt ceiling involved a trillion dollars of deficit reduction. president biden is committed to keeping the economy on a fiscally sustainable course, and he proposed a budget with $3 trillion of deficit reduction over the next decade. we're both investing in the long-term health of the u.s. economy to boost growth and create good jobs and clean energy, semiconductors, to rebuild our infrastructure, to make this economy more productive. and i think that's a strategy that's really working investing

in america and americans. >> it is coming at a cost and the deficit as a percent of gdp is projected to be 6%, double what was initially expected in a time where we have good growth and full employment. shouldn't it be going the other way? >> well, we have to make sure that we do keep deficits under control going out. the statistic or metric that i look at most often to judge the fiscal -- our fiscal course is net interest is a share of gdp, and even with the rise we've seen in interest rates that remains a very reasonable level of around 1 percent. we do need to be careful about what we do going forward in order to make sure we stay on a sustainable course. >> the impact of some of those bills that you were talking about, don't they start to hit into next year and couldn't that keep inflation sticky and

potentially cause some concerns in the bond market about issuance to pay for all of that? >> i'm not really seeing concerns in the bond market. of course, they've tightened monetary policy and that pushed rates up. there are pay for in the legislation that funded all of these programs, and so i'm not really concerned about the impact that they'll have. certainly greater deficit is possible. the president has proposed a series of measures that would reduce our deficits over time while investing in the economy and, you know, this is something we need to do going forward. >> i do want to ask you about your trip this week and your top priorities and messages for world leaders at a time where if you look at the global economy, you mentioned china is weaker

than expected, europe is showing more weakness, germany going negative in growth. what a are you saying to them? >> we are focused this week on measures to address issues in the global economy and to achieve stronger and sustainable growth. russia's continuing brutal war in ukraine is having a very adverse impact and we're spending time this week discussing food prices and what we can do to alleviate hunger and shortages of food, especially since the black sea grain initiative russia has ended that. we are focused on climate change and the adverse impact that's having on developing countries and emerging markets. it interacts with scarcity of food and we're focused on

greatly expanding the amount of aid and private investment that we can channel into emerging markets in developing countries around the world. we have an initiative to enable the world bank and the other multilateral development banks to greatly expand their provision of resources and to mobilize private capital for climate change, we're focused on health, preventing future pandemics, and mobilizing funds both public and private, through the president's partnership for global investment with the g-7 to boost infrastructure development in a meaningful way, infrastructure investment around the world, so these are some of the main focuses this week.

>> it's a heavy agenda. >> it is. >> we'll let you get to it. we thank you for the time. >> thank you so much, sara. >> janet yellen, back over to you in the studio. >> covered a lot of ground. thank you for that. that's sara eisen. up next kaplan is going to join us to react to that interview and share his expectations for the fed later on this week. tune in tonight 6:00 p.m. eastern time for sara's deep dive with ken griffin, 8:00 p.m. eastern time we should say, spanning markets, philanthropy and more. more "squawk on the street" is still ahead. every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible?

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." big interview with the treasury secretary a moment ago, yellen saying she does not see signs the economy is at risk of a downturn and consumer spending remains robust and premature to make forecasts about the impact of the uaw strike. her comment come ahead of the fed meeting, let's bring in robert kaplan and more. great to have you back. sara threw a lot at her. student loans, gas prices, bond issuance, the shutdown, strike. hard to throw her off her sense that economy is pretty stable at this point. >> i think the economy is stable at this point, and the fed rate increases have certainly created a tightening in the economy. goods are weaker, anything interest rate sensitive is weaker. it's harder to get a loan if

you're a small business. but i do believe the unspent arpa money, which i agree has been through the federal deficit a couple years ago, but is still being spent, as well as the inflation reduction act spending and the infrastructure act spending currently, are to some extent keeping the economy resilient and i think in particular, keeping the service sector ri sillent and the labor market resilient and you have some cross currents here. >> at this point in terms of activity do you think risks are to the upside or downside? >> in terms of the economy? >> yeah. >> in terms of the economy, my concern is this, the organic growth capability of the u.s. economy is being -- is at one level and i think we're get an extra boost from government spending. we're running a $2 trillion

deficit this year which is substantial when you think it's post-covid, but pre-recession. government debt to gdp is over 100%, and so my concern is when this government spending starts to dissipate, the organic strength of the economy is, i think, weaker than we're seeing, but i don't see any sign government spending is letting up in 2023 or 2024. i think we will stay resilient. >> robert, the treasury secretary, you know, acknowledged deficits, but said the metric she watches is net interest to gdp, which at 1%, she didn't seem particularly concerned about. do you share that sentiment? >> well, i look at two things, government -- debt held by the public is a percentage of gdp is now over 100%. the present value of unfunded entitlements is 75 trillion.

i think you're seeing if you look at the 10-year treasury and the 30-year, you've seen a meaningful backup in those rates over the last month or two. we're now at over 430, and i'm not sure the backup has run its course. i think there is some market sensitivity to the fact that we've got a big supply of treasury issuance in the years to come and we're running very large deficits and we've got a very large debt to gdp that we have to fund in the years ahead. >> you mentioned the government programs, many of which are, obviously, involved in just beginning to really spend a lot of money allocated. are you surprised fed chair powell, when he's been asked about the inflationary impact of those programs, really doesn't seem to think it is significant? >> well, if you look at it on a deficit basis, i think the thought is the inflation reduction act was intended to be paid for and the infrastructure

act had some pay for, and the arpa money, american rescue act money of $1.9 trillion went through the budget. if you look at the impact on the ground -- and i travel a lot around the country -- you see more than 15 new battery plants, $4 billion each, sprinkled around the country. you see new infrastructure proposals and announcements every week. when you're on the ground in cities and towns, the impact is, in fact, meaningful, and it creates more demand for not only goods and services, but particularly labor and that's why i think the labor force has remained relatively tight. i think we'll continue to remain relatively resilient because of that. >> would you argue, are you arguing, that the government spend is masking a soft economy? i mean, would you use the phrase sugar high? >> i wouldn't use the phrase

sugar high. i think a lot of this spending on infrastructure is needed. a number of the green investments in the inflation reduction act i think are needed, but this is substantial -- these programs all -- take all three of them plus the clips act, they're substantial, and i can tell you on the ground in cities and states through the country, they're having an effect at a time where the labor force is already tight. my main advice is just we should be aware that this is playing a role and i think at the fed, i've suggested that i would have a very -- i would try to have a very good fix on the forward calendar for this spending because i think when the spending dissipates, i think the organic strength of the economy is weaker than it appears. >> i'm curious as to how you think higher oil prices will impact the economy if they do.

it's climate week the treasury secretary is here for. we have oil prices setting new recent highs. >> yeah. so we have a fundamental issue what y you've heard me talk about before. we are globally under supplied on fossil fuels. we need to speed and we are speeding to try to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, but despite that, we're probably three to five years away from peak oil demand. we are to some extent limiting production in the united states, although we're the cleanest producer in the world, and you can -- the releases from the strategic petroleum reserve are tactical, but they don't address the issue that we're globally under supplied. i think we're going to be vulnerable to price spikes in oil over the next several years, and so this energy transition is going to take more like 20 years plus or 30 years plus, not 5 or

10, and if we don't produce more fossil fuels in the united states, we're going to be more vulnerable, i think, to under supply and also people making $50,000 a year who pay money for their car to get to work, you know, gasoline, they're somewhat more stretched as a result of it and there's 50 million of those workers. >> although you're down in texas. we're right near all-time highs for u.s. production, aren't we? >> we are. the u.s., if we had an ability, my concern is if you look at global demand versus global supply, we're burning more coal globally. global demand is growing for fossil fuels. we've got to speed wind, solar and alternatives to close the gl gap but we have to be realistic. it's going to take longer to make the transition than we like

to think, and i think we have the ability to produce more in the united states if we had the determination to do it. that's a sensitive, structural issue strategy issue for the united states. >> robert, fascinating and great discussion coming on the heels of the yellen interview. >> good to talk to you. still to come, arm's return to the public market. a look at the ipo landscape, star pricing after the close today, klaviyo raising its price target. what investors need to know in just a moment. hospital bill for prime?! gaaaaap! did you just say gap?! he's talking about expenses health insurance doesn't cover. good thing coach prime knows about...say it one time! aflac! because aflac gets you money to help close that gap! now how do we get this goat outta here? (whistles) aflac! meet one of my new homies! gaaaaap! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com. elephant would've been scarier. ♪ (captivating music) ♪

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about an hour into trading. want to check on movers today. arm is giving back some of its ipo gains. still in the green since its debut, but about $10 off the intraday highs last week. dash is up after the upgrade at mizuho. bullish on the company's market share. lyft agrees to pay a $10 million to settle sec charges that it failed to disclose a board member's financial interest in a transaction involving lyft. "squawk on the street" is back in a couple minutes.

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welcome back. i'm pippa stevens with your news update. the white house says iran released five americans wrongfully imprisoned in iraq today. the agreement gives tehran access to $6 billion in oil revenues. a senior diplomat tells nbc news five iranian nationals are expected to be release in the deal. hunter biden is suing the irs. the president's son filed a lawsuit today accusing agents of repeatedly and intentionally publicly sharing his private tax return information as they investigate him. the younger biden nearly reached a plea deal over misdemeanor charges over failing to pay federal taxes but that fell apart in court weeks ago. this morning, authorities located all nine teens who escaped from a pennsylvania detention center sunday night.

police say they slipped out of the center after a riot broke out. the facility is miles away from where a convicted killer was captured last week after he broke out of a pennsylvania prison. david, back to you. >> thank you. we are getting ready for another high-profile ipo. this time it's instacart following arm's successful debut last week. let's get to leslie picker who is tracking all this recent ipo activity for us. >> hey, david. the capital markets are clearly open. another bee week ahead for ipos. instacart set to final its price after the bell today. it's expected to opt for something at the high end of the new range or above that range, as is typical when the range is boosted. instacart is likelily to have a valuation of $10 billion or more by the time it starts trading tomorrow. klaviyo opting to increase its market range by $2 there a share

on strong investor demand expected to start trading on wednesday and both of these come on the heels of arm,s the biggest ipo in years that priced at the high end of its range traded up 25%. it's down about 5% today. now goldman says that its ipo issuance barometer is more consistent with a normalized backdrop thanks in part to a 17% jump in the s&p 500 this year, but this crop of deals we're seeing is similar to that of the recent cycle peak of 2020 and 2021. instacart will do a down round with the ipo valuation just a quarter of where it was less than two years ago in raising its price range this morning, klaviyo's valuation is pretty close to levels it saw in private fundraising, but that was two years ago in may 2021. guys? >> leslie, i know both of us made this point last week, and it bears repeating again, i

assume we'll repeat it a number of times, the instacart offering looks like $600 million plus, is small when you take out the cornerstone investors. it's a tiny slice, susisn't it? >> it's about $260 million. which for a 10 billion company is 10% of the company they're floating in the deal. that's important for the overall supply and demand dynamic. it leaves little supply relative to the potential demand out there. especially considering there has been such scarcity. you had arm trading well that could encourage investors sitting on gains there to invest in the ipo coming down the pike as they can see it's clearly working in the market. a small float is not necessarily indicative of an amazing first day of trading, but oftentimes there is kind of a way that you can orchestrate that to get gains on the first day. >> yeah. again, it may not be fully

reflected in the fundamentals as much as supply and demand. leslie, 'lwel keep track of things. thank you. leslie picker. where rbc's head of equity strategy sees opportunity. we're back in a moment. are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." yellen telling us this hour she sees no economic slowdown ahead. what might that mean for the markets? joining us at post nine is rbc capital head of u.s. equity strategy target of 4 50. great to have you back. what you've been writing about the energy trade has runway. >> we think so. a couple weeks ago, the trading community, even my commodity strategists were starting it say look maybe things have moved too far too fast, and i'm sympathic with that. looking at my models and valuations they look valuations deeply attractive and earnings revisions early stages of a recovery, and so we just looked and said if the oil price cooperates an hangs in there,

there's plenty of room to run from our perspective. i think the growth trade needs to correct and that money has to go somewhere. >> fundamentally it's still a supply story as opposed to demand? >> what mike has been saying, our energy strategist, the fundamentals of the oil market are some of the best that he's seen in a while. it felt like maybe from a sentiment perspective things have gotten ahead of themselves. >> other parts of the market, we've talked about the mega caps and their out performance versus the nasdaq, let alone the s&p. what about small caps and where things stand given their under performance this year. >> this is an area i used to cover exclusively and look at my models the valuations are deeply compelling. not just financials. every sector is cheap and small relative to large. earnings revisions are starting to improve in small cap and positive revisions. everything is working on the data, the funds flows have improved a little bit, but we can't seem to get the out

performance trade going. i think the problem is that there's enough doubts about the recession, about whether or not we're going to get it. you see confidence grow that we're skipping it, it's not delayed. i think that should help. i think you need to get closer to fed cuts traditionally small caps do very well after the fed starts to cut. i'm wondering if we're going it see people talk about that in december, maybe november, maybe see prepositioning around it. second half of 2024 seems far off. >> soft landing, confirmed and/or even cuts and small caps might out perform. >> i think so. you're not as cheap back in the tech bubble but we're down around the lows that have been holding the last five or six years and those lows don't seem to be breaking. i think small caps are drawing a line in the sand and fighting back in that resilience needs to be expected. i wouldn't short them. >> we had yellen on a couple moments ago and went through the catalog of potential potholes, the student loans, or energy

prices or the strike. how do you frame those in your overall macro setup which appears to be constructive? >> we feel neutral tactically. we think it's early in 2024. i have been a little more tactically cautious in the short term and that hasn't worked. the market has been more resilient. i worry we're getting the student lending issue at the same time gas prices are starting to spike. this is a lot to pile on. excess savings, we're hearing about that from the economics community being worked down. i push back a little bit. if you look at homeowners they're still benefitting from the era of low interest rates that interest rate on mortgage debt outstanding at the end of q2 was 6%. i think there are buffers that aren't being appreciated, but there are a lot of potholes coming up. >> to the, textent you under

estimated the resiliency of the market, what was it specifically you've revised your thinking on, if you have? >> we do a weekly and put out this deck every monday and go through the high frequency stuff we track and the thing that surprised me last week was to see that u.s. equity inflows were picking up again and strengthening and it was the growth part of the market. i didn't expect that this late in the year. and where we saw the weakness, it wasn't money bond to equities. that's what bears would have anticipated. the money flows are starting to soften on japan, china and emerging markets. it's a u.s., non-u.s. dynamic that suddenly is starting to help us. i talked to my economists last week and one of the things they're starting to think about is the idea that the u.s. is this fundamental island, oasis and our fundamentals look better than the rest of the world and that's a shock to global investors negative on the u.s. to start the year from an economic perspective. >> because of where we were in the rate cycle at the time? >> yeah. just the idea that we were going

to be unavoidbly tightened into a recession. the resilience of the consumers and corporations were under estimated by non-u.s. investors. >> we'll see if that changes and the china data continues to stabilize and our own. >> it's interesting. just recently we started to see the shares in the red and overall mixed tape. quick programming note, we are less than two weeks away from delivering alpha, the cnbc investment summit where the top investors and business leaders break town where they seek reward. you can visit cnbc.com/alpha for more. with comcast business... it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too.

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shares of clorex under pressure after warning its earnings will take a hit due to a recent cyberattack about a month ago. it comes after cyberattacks at mgm and caesars. eamon javers joins us with more on a beat you've covered for so long. >> the clorex company is trying to clean up its i.t. systems.

it was the victim of a cyber hack on august 14th. the financial impact will likely be material to its quarterly results. they say it attacked portions of its i.t. infrastructure which caused widespread disruptions of operations. that led to a lower rate of order processing and what they call an elevated level of product outages. clorox says it can't tell if the impact will be material to its annual performance. the company now says it believes it has contained the attack and transitioning to normal processing on the week of september 25th. it says it has resumed production at the vast majority of manufacturing sites but it can't say how long it will take to get back to normal. the company did not offer any insight into who the hackers are, if they demanded a ransom or if the company paid money for access to its systems. disclosure comes on the heels of last week's major hacks of mgm resorts and caesars entertainment. those were conducted by a group

they call scattered spider. it's not at all clear if the hacks are related in any way. back to you. >> we were talking about mgm and caesars earlier and the decision by companies to pay or not pay ransom. >> that's a tough one. >> in the case here, caesars did, i believe. mgm chose not to. mgm suffering more significant consequences as a result. what is the advice for companies and where does the government stand in terms of what it wants to see what happens when ransom is asked for? >> in the old days the fbi would advise you, don't pay a ransom. all you do is make a market for this and encourage guys to do it again and you give then cash they can use to buy better servers and equipment and conduct more cyberattacks. but they kind of backpedaled off of that over the past couple of years. the fbi sort of a little quieter on whether or not you should pay ransom. a lot of companies, it is material to their quarterly results. it is material to their operations. they are in a real bind. and law enforcement gets that,

understands the pain they're in. and so now it's a little bit of a soft dance. they don't want companies to pay these ransoms, but they understand why they do, when they do. and that's the challenge here. i asked clorox about this if they paid any ransom or had any indication of who the hackers are, they said the investigation is ongoing and don't provide any more detail than that. >> scattered spider, along with other hacking groups, there are so many defenses one would expect but they continue to be able to exploit simple personal relationships as well, right? sort of on the social side of thing. >> the social engineering. you literally call up the i.t. department and say, hey, i've been out of town, i'm an employee, i need to log back in, but i lost my password. some good-hearted person will try to help, right? people always want to help, especially if it's a colleague calling with a difficulty, right? so, they take advantage of our own human good nature here and then strike. >> yeah. and it continues to be a real story, obviously.

insurance -- i guess they all have insurance against hacks or ransom as well, or many companies? >> usually they do. usually it's the insurance companies who end up paying these ransoms. that becomes a whole other negotiation. you have to negotiate with the hackers, with your cyber security vendor and also with the insurance companies as well. >> eamon, thank you, for covering all of it. fascinating story. still developing as well, certainly when it involves clorox. eamon javers. jacques jacques ja demand... ...in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon to take our operations to the next level. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. (ella) with verizon business, we get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) so our customers get what they want, when they want it. (jen) it's not just a network. it's enterprise intelligence. (vo) learn more. it's your vision, it's your verizon. i did have hearing aids from another company...

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morning. i'm carl quintanilla live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. sara eisen will join us shortly after talking with the treasury secretary last hour. the latest on the uaw strike. we're live on the ground in toledo as they remain at a stalemate. instacart expected to price after the bell as the ipo market picks up seem. saks ceo joins us as some households have cuts. we await wednesday's fed decision and, of course, the ripple effects have the uaw strike. our senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us on set with the setup this week, which historicly