morning. i'm carl quintanilla live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. sara eisen will join us shortly after talking with the treasury secretary last hour. the latest on the uaw strike. we're live on the ground in toledo as they remain at a stalemate. instacart expected to price after the bell as the ipo market picks up seem. saks ceo joins us as some households have cuts. we await wednesday's fed decision and, of course, the ripple effects have the uaw strike. our senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us on set with the setup this week, which historically isn't that great.

>> no, it isn't. to keep it simple, don't overthink it approach, maybe further chop to the downside. the s&p 500 has really followed the seasonal script pretty well in direction if not magnitude this year, which would suggest a couple more weeks of difficulty. i think pretty much everyone is alert to the idea you probably get a strong finish or at least the odds would say, to the year. the longer we go churning sideways this way, though, i think people are looking for cracks or just finding them. there has been a loss of momentum. market breadth has faltered if you look at the equal weighted s&p. it's been left behind. even some of the cyclical bellwether area like industrials and consumer discretionary, they've given back some outperformances. it's not as if they're setting off loud alarms but they lost a little bit of their leadership year to date relative to the s&p 500. all that, though, is working against the idea that all the

known headwinds we're talking about, the strikes, the student loan repay, maybe government shutdown, maybe global weakness and higher gasoline prices are interacting with an economy that just a few weeks ago we thought was running too hot in july. we're using up the momentum and benefit of the doubt. late cycle psychology is going to be hard to escape from, i think. we're at this point in the cycle where it's -- people feel like it's when not if things fall apart. it reminds me of 2019 in a lot of ways. who knows how long we would have gone without a recession if not for the pandemic. it could have been a long time. >> the journal piece this morning, looking at '95 and the period where they managed to do it. in the words of blinder who said, nothing bad happened. >> that's right. got lucky along the way. i would quibble a little bit -- first of all, '95 is the pristine, perfect soft landing

scenario. i would quibble slightly saying it's the only one. the mid-'80s you also had the end of a tightening cycle and you didn't have a recession for quite a long period of time. so it's doable. you're just looking to prolong the good things, full employment type setup. nothing will trump the inflation numbers on that front. i think on wednesday we'll talk a lot about what the fed has to say in its outlook. if they're still saying we're not going to get to 2% inflation target until 2025, meaning they'll wait to see if the numbers help them out, i think it allows more to be patient. i think there's less kind of collective macro panic happening, at least right now. >> i love goldman's granular pencilling in one more hike to give them the out, in case. >> i think that's what these institutions always want to do, preserve their flexibility as things change. i think the market could live

with that for now. >> mike, we'll talk in a little bit. the treasury secretary talking with sara earlier this morning giving an op mystic outlook for the economy. >> there are lags in monetary policy on the economy. we would expect to see some impacts. i think we've certainly seen it in the housing market. look, we still have a good, healthy labor market, consumer spending remains quite robust. we've seen strong industrial production. i don't see any signs that the economy is at risk of a downturn. this is the best of all worlds, to see continued strength in the economy, a good, strong labor market and inflation moving down. that is what we're seeing. >> sara is back on set. what did you think of the interview? >> you know, i threw a lot at her in terms of potential risk for the economy there. i mentioned the student loan payment he payment resumption,

mentioned a possible government shutdown, the uaw strike, the lag impact of monetary policy. she sticks with the optimistic view. now, obviously, she's a treasury secretary, but it so far has been the case. she kept pointing to the resilient labor market. even mentioned -- i even talked to her about the fact that, hey, all this fiscal stimulus and the spending, that's what's keeping us from recession and could keep inflation sticky, couldn't it? she said not really a ton of evidence that's happening. a lot of it is paid for. push back against some negativity. on oil prices, they're clearly watching that very carefully because a lot of the progress they've made there is being reversed. she said, we're not near the highs. we're still lower than we were last year. but they are watching it. >> i thought it was -- the responses we're watching closely, gas prices -- >> monitoring. >> monitoring. on the shutdown she did say something we do not need as a risk factor at this point. >> less than two weeks to go. they better make a deal. it's not clear whether that

could happen. i asked if there was an economic impact if there is a shutdown. she said, probably not. not such an economic impact. the biggest question is how long the uaw strike will last and what the resumption of the student loan payments would look like. that is a little hard to tell still. >> two big stories as we work our way through september. our next guest thinks a soft landing could be possible if that strong labor market holds on and unemployment doesn't spike but also said the fed's focus on wage growth could end up pushing us into a recession. joining us is brent shuti. neutral equities, underweight xhotties. it sounds like your macro view may not be the most constructive out there. >> no, we certainly think there's going to be a recession. the economy is late in the cycle. yes, we've had a disinflation impulse we thought would happen so we're overweight equities.

now we're rekting to a normal economy where the u.s. economy looks late in the cycle. you mentioned wages, the uaw, they're still too hot. to me the fed isn't going to ease the liquidity tourniquet they put on the economy until they see wages push substantially lower which i don't think happens nunless there's a rise in the unemployment rate, which we call recession. that's where we think there is likely to be a recession in the future which is why we're overweight fixed income. >> where do you think the terminal rate goes? >> look, i think more important is, what's the endgame? to me the endgame is there has to be a rise in the unemployment rate. wages are at 4.3% on a year-over-year basis. the last press conference fed chair powell said, wages are not consistent with 2% inflation. that's where i think so this has to push back into the 3.2%, 3.5% range. that is unlikely to happen unless you get a large increase in labor force participation, so

mike mentioned 1995. that's where you saw a large influx of people in the labor market. you saw a huge productivity boom. those are two things that could happen but are probably highly unlikely. in that case, i think that's where you have to have a rising unemployment rate which will cause that recession to occur. >> one of the more interesting things i heard this morning from the treasury secretary, and she said this pretty definitively, that she doesn't see any signs there's concerns in the bond market about issuance and the deficits and the debt. since you're long fixed income it sounds like you're not expecting that either. some are worried that's going to keep rates persistently higher. >> potentially. i don't think we're going back to where we were in 2014 and 2020 where we looked up every day and thought about disinflation and low interest rates all together. i do think you'll have a period of time where the fed will be cutting rates next year because there will be a recession, which will be a ballast to the fixed income market. i'll take that in the next 6 to

12 months when i think there's a lot of economic uncertainty. longer term i think there potential problems. perhaps 4% to 5% is the new normal for fixed income. i think between now and then you get a period of time where the fed does cut and you actually see strong returns in the fixed income markets. >> appreciate it. always good to check in with you. interesting times, especially now. brent shutte, thanks. treasury secretary yellen commenting on the uaw strikes saying too early to tell what the economic impact will be. goldman sachs' analyst saying the work stoppage equals $40 million per week and assuming margins deteriorate about 40%. the ebitda impact to gm and ford could be about $40 million per week each. as for stellantis, the average weekly production at its toledo

plant is higher than ford and gm and toledo is where we find phil lebeau with the latest on the negotiations. what do we know now? >> reporter: not a whole lot of movement. we know as we speak, representatives from stellantis and the uaw are getting together. you were talking about that economic impact. keep in mind, the plants that are being hit by the uaw right now, they're not the most profitable plants by the big three in the united states. they're important but not the most profitable. here's the strike impact. remember, the plants that have been hit so far in the strikes, you're talking about midsize suvs, popular ones, as well as midsize pickup trucks, but not the most profitable. about 15% of the big three u.s. production. the full-size plants continue to operate. there are some key issues. i know we're talking a lot about 40% versus 20% and 21%. beyond hourly pay and where the

raise ends up over 4 1/2 years, the other thing to keep in mind are wage tiers, cost of living adjustments and restoring pensions, all of which the uaw wants. speaking of the uaw, president shawn fain talking earlier on cnbc about his frustration that this does not seem to be moving very quickly. >> it's a shame, again, the companies waited until the last week to start getting serious about talking about this. they wasted a lot of time. we told them up front, don't do that. we told them up front, we expect to deal with these things early and often. they chose not to do that. so, they chose to be in this position and that's why we find ourselves where we are right now. >> one last thing as you take a look at shares of ford. ford negotiators will be sitting down with uaw representatives today as they continue their negotiations. ford also faces the prospect of a strike at its facilities north of the border up in canada. contract with ford expires at midnight. doesn't mean there will be a

strike. they could extend the contract. they may continue negotiations. there's a lot on the plate for ford. by the way, also for gm and stellantis. ford is the one going first up in canada. back to you. >> phil, it doesn't sound like the union is necessarily counting on the white house to make any kind of difference here. >> reporter: no, not at all. if you listen to that interview that shawn fain did on "morning joe," there's no reason to be optimistic this is going to be resolved any time soon. seriously. there was nothing in there where, yeah, we see a little movement, things are improving. all they said over the weekend was, there was reasonable -- reasonably productive talks with ford. that's not a ringing endorsement of we are moving towards an agreement. they are continuing to talk, but there's no indication they are making dramatic progress. >> let us know what you hear, phil. thank you very much. phil lebeau. up next, is luxury the

outlier as the consumer gets more cautious? saks' ceo with us. later on, a debate on the disney dip. don't go anywhe.er ht! hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. rock stars. please! do you know what it takes to be a rock star? i've trashed hotel rooms in 43 countries. i was on the road since i was 16. i've done my share of bad things. also your share of bad things. we know that using workday for finance and hr makes you great at your job. but that don't make you a rock star. ted! ted! ted! oh ted in finance. you're a rock star! hey liz in hr? can you do this? unless you work with an actual rock star. you are a rock star! thank you! who's the new guy? hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. give it up for pam. pam, you are a rock-

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a majority of u.s. adults feel the current economic environment is having a negative impact on their finances, according to a new exclusive cnbc morning consult survey. middle income households are feeling the negative effects the most. sentiment that has held steady since our first survey in june. higher income households say they are feeling the impacts less. 30% say they are having a positive impact on their finances, up 20% since june. 92% told us they have cut back on spending over the last six months. clothing, restaurants, bars, and entertainment remain the most common categories for cuts. looking ahead, more than three-quarters of consumers say

they will cut spending on nonessentials sometimes or more often over the next six months. we will continue to watch this closely as we get into the all-important holiday shopping season. interesting the way we're getting splinterization on income brackets. >> and i thought it was interesting that restaurants were included. it doesn't surprise me on goods, but services is what has stayed hot and sticky. so, deceleration there is notable, i think, for the fed's inflation fight and the economy. let's stay with the consumer because when it comes to the luxury consumer, our next guest is seeing early signs of a spending rebound. the latest saks luxury poll survey shows 58% of luxury consumers plan to spend the same or more in the next three months. that marks the first increase in luxury spending plans since the survey began tracking the metric in may '22. the luxury stock performance tells a different story. lvmh down double digits in the

last few months. joining us is saks ceo marc metrick. good morning. >> thank you for having me. >> tell us more about what you're seeing in this data. is it surprising to see a tick up in luxury spending? >> we've always said when it comes to the luxury consumer, they are last in and first out of these moments. that's what we're seeing. you put it into the lead. it's the first increase in this type of response we've seen since way back in may of '22. it's encouraging. >> any sense of what's driving it? >> i think when you look back -- it was an interesting phenomenon we've been watching. the luxury consumer, 70% of them, even last time and this time indicated they felt comfortable about their own financial situation but were more concerned about the overall economy. since this is more of a sentiment-based consumer, the luxury consumer basis on that, we are starting to see them feel things are going to be, less worse. i'm not saying they're not still concerned but less concerned

than they've been. i think you'll see that move into their psyche as well. >> i wonder how much can be chalked up to the fact that the market was tough last year and it's up 16% this year. nasdaq is up more than 30% this year. how correlated to that is the luc luxury consumer? >> it's the broader space. obviously, the market is a piece of it but it's what they look and feel. they see the ipo markets are opening up. we saw one today, one last week. it's everything as far as the capital markets go. again, it's overall sentiment. people want to feel good about spending and they can't if other folks are under pressure. carl just showed it. it's across different income strata but it's there. >> sara mentioned the difference between spending on goods and services. what do we expect to hold up better over the long term, luxury travel, for example, or luxury apparel, let's say? >> you know, there are actually pretty tightly correlated. we consider ourselves a goat, go out and travel business.

when you travel, you know, you want to wear luxury or use luxury to travel. our respondents indicated as such. over 70% of them have a trip planned. about 70% of those people said, hell, i'm going to buy something new in luxury to either wear or travel with. >> what's happening on pricing, has inflation in apparel and accessory sector come down at all? >> you're not seeing pricing moving. we've chatted about this. look, inflation isn't necessarily something in luxury that moves around. this is a supply and demand game. you know, you're going to see the prices, you know, kind of stay where they are. and we're going to just figure out how to create scarcity and demand for it. we have seen the consumers indicated, the 42% of folks who said they were going to spend less said it's going to take a sale and i'm willing to wait. about 75% said, i'll wait it out, which has been what people have done in the past as well. >> right. finally, mike, we did get an

upgrade at one firm this morning of ralph lauren. they point to cotton down by a third in the last year and a half, pretty good inventories, margin upside. i just wonder if you're seeing that kind of story spun out across your universe right now? even ex-concerns about china, for example. >> look, i think the brands are doing a good job of managing their own supply chain and businesses. they're so globally diversified, it's a bigger story than just one element of it, but i'm very happy to hear ralph is having the success they're having. i'm sure a lot of other folks are balancing the same way. >> is it still the going out clothes, jackets, coats, wearing to work, is that still what's working? >> yeah. what's working is -- i'm not saying sneakers are dead, but sneakers are being pushed aside for more of a shoe. it's what we talked about last time, comfort. she's getting into the ballet flat, embellished or clean, doesn't matter, and he's getting

into the loafer. it's evening, going out, and jewelry. don't forget about that. they're stacking and they used to be stacking on the wrist and now they're stacking around the neck with a layered pendant. if you're wearing it, it's going to be red. that's the color the team keeps talking about. >> i love that. red, i can get down with that. not ballet flats for a short girl. marc, thank you. >> thank you for having me. >> and he's wearing loafers. >> yes. a bunch of us are, trust me. still to come this morning, deutsche is bullish on one chip name this morning ahead of earnings. that call straight ahead. plus, watching arm. bernstein turning sour on the stock despite a red hot debut. it's down 6.3%. we'll look at what it means for inact'prpes iseestars osctth wk, next.

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the european market set to close in just a moment with negative sentiment. the bundis bank saying they would mark four straight quarters of negative or flat. jpmorgan remains cautious, reiterating underweight rating on the region with weak macro data. wolf saying buckle up, showing technicals show a tumultuous period coming. the commission in brussels expects germany to have negative growth this year. the data has turned worse than the u.s. and a little bit sharper, which is why a lot of

people think the ecb is done raising rates. >> you have this back and forth between germany and china where tensions a little bit regarding trade and reliance on one another. a couple hours into trading. dow up. let's get to post to post with bob pisani. >> the s&p is up 16%, 17%, but a lot of parts of the market are acting poorly. consumer names have not been great. target, a three-year low for target. remember the heavy days of the pandemic. look at this, $118. we were north of -- close to $300 a couple of years ago on target. people were buying consumer discretionary items and nonconsumer discretionary items. since then there's been, of course, with high inflation, much less buying of discretionary items that are out there. target got hit along with that. believe it or not, even some of the dollar stores. dollar general is another one here that's gotten hit. they had a big comment at the end of august.

they slashed their profit outlook at the end of august. talking about weaker consumer spending on nonessentials. we're in a new low for dollar general, dollar tree, same situation. so, the consumer staples in general have had a poor year. not just retailers. coca-cola is not doing very well. hasn't been doing very well. that's a new low for the year. it's not a 52-week low at $57. but they had a big run. these consumer names when the defensives were really strong. that was in the middle of last year, though. since then, generally they've had a hard time because the recession fears have dissipated. they haven't been doing as well this year. one thing that's doing well is we see oil moving towards $90. everything in the oil complex, this is marathon petroleum, a refiner, not marathon oil, which is an exploration production company. marathon petroleum hitting new highs. phillips 66, refiners are hitting new highs.

it doesn't matter, the oil complex in general is moving. particularly oil service providers like halliburton are doing really well and some other names in the exploration and production space. occidental petroleum, for example, are all moving up. that's the real power sector we've seen. again, it's only 5% of the s&p 500. other sectors are much, much larger. the problem is, you can get oil moving, but it's not necessarily going to move the index. that's the big issue. it used to be better. it's better than it used to be, carl. remember when oil was 3%. energy used to be 3% of the s&p two years ago. now it's closer to 6%. that's an improvement. you need a lot higher in order to move the dial on the index. back to you. >> thanks. talk to you in a while. let's get a new update with pippa stevens. good morning. >> good morning. five americans wrongfully imprisoned in iran are now free, arriving in qatar after they released in a prisoner exchange. the next stop is back home to

america. as part of the deal the u.s. is expected to release five iranian nationals in u.s. custody and give iran access to $6 billion in oil revenues frozen under u.s. sanctions. senior politicians in the uk urged police today to investigate sexual assault allegations against british comedian russell brand. brand denied the claims made by four women in a tv documentary and article released this weekend. he insists his relationships were consensual. the u.s. is asking for help finding an f-35 fighter jet that went missing sunday afternoon when the pilot ejected because of a, quote, mishap. military officials say the stealth jet was left in autopilot and could possibly still be airborne and that the transponder may not be working. searchers are focusing their attention north of joint base charleston, but aren't saying whether they believe the jet crashed. sara? >> pippa, thank you. disney trading at lows not seen in a decade.

why raymond james says it's time to buy the dip next. as cnbc celebrates hispanic heritage, we're sharing stories of influential spanish leaders like this one from toast, helena gomez. >> i'm proud to be an hispanic latina. i represent what's possible for a lot of young latinas out there, including my own daughters. there's so much rich history and culture and music and family that i would love to share with my non-hispanic colleagues. when i think about the fact that hispanics will be such an important part of our communities, of our workforce in the future, i think it's really important to bring them into the fold and really enrich the conversations that we're having every day in our communities and in the workplace.

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got a bull call on disney from raymond james' desk grabbing our attention. the firm initiating disney and warner bros. discovery, at outperform. they think several streamers are primed for better free cash flow generation. disney is the least exposed of the three in their view. joining us to discuss is julia boorstin and disney could use the shout out, julia. >> yeah. this is a company that is facing so many headwind. people have been focusing more on the challenges lately. raymond james in this hefty note digs into all the challenges and also the opportunities for the media industry as we see this transition away from the linear tv business, that was very profitable, but declining over to the streaming business, which is very competitive but has a lot of growth potential. the reason why they call out disney in particular is because of a couple of key things. number one, the fact they have all of these different streaming services, disney plus, hulu and espn plus, is an advantage.

they can also bundle them together to reduce churn and use those to hold onto their subscribers. they also say they believe disney has the best ip and they also have the parks, which is such a key engine and a key cash flow generator. >> they also put some numbers on exposure to linear tv, trying to prove the point that disney's not as exposed as, say, paramount. 54% of revenue, warner bros., 44%. disney, 29%. i haven't seen that breakdown. does it alleviate concerns for investors? >> yeah, that really illustrates how much of disney's business is about the parks on one hand and then also about the box office. they know that disney had been really the box office leader before the pandemic. they have sort of given up that number one leadership position but they talk about the value of the ip, both that they can exploit across these platforms from the parks to studio, et

cetera, and how that helps diversify their revenue away from that reliance on the shrinking linear tv business. >> julia, is the sense regarding the likes of drew barrymore and jennifer hudson adding to the thoughts that the strike could go for longer or there may be urgency to get more progress done? >> there's definitely a feeling of urgency, carl. hearing more and more stories of people who are impacted from the strikes who are not members of the writers and actors guild but forced to take out loans to pay rent because the whole ecosystem here in l.a. is being so much impacted. i do know there's a sense of hope that maybe the talks this week will really help resolve things. there's hope maybe the writers guild can get an agreement and a compromise there, that will then push the screen actors guild to sit down as well and have a compromise. i think there's been so much focus on that drew barrymore situation and the fact there's

pressure on both sides and now a lot of people are just hoping there's resolution to these strikes. >> yeah. a difficult -- obviously the business model intricacies became clear in that particular episode. thanks. let's shift gear and talk chips. deutsche upgrading micron to buy today. they say the worst of the semi cycle is behind us and point to dram prices as indication of turn-around. let's bring in kristina partsinevelos. >> it's very specific to those memory prices. they believe there's an upcycle in memory prices. dram is dynamic memory shut off -- or is not in use once power is shut off, but specifically there's been bullish calls. it's not just deutsche bank, which they increased their price target to $85 and have a buy on this name. barclay's last week as well. the reason being that many of these analyst sell side believe memory prices are starting to upswing. we're seeing that digitimes, a

popular asian publication, they said even today that you're starting to see the prices increase. that will benefit companies like micron. the second thing is samsung is a major foundry. they have recently cut production because they want to get rid of excess inventory. when they cut production, that helps prices, supply and demand. and also you have the demand for a.i. servers. a.i. servers are going to need more of this high band width memory that falls into the dram category. that should be a strength in demand for a company like micron. a lot of viewers when they watch, they hear all these acronyms with semiconductors and it gets really confusing. hopefully we can bring up the full screen in terms of the explanation. you have dram, dynamic memory. think of it as used for any type of apps or algorithms. the moment power is shut off, it's no longer in use. it's considered faster and cheaper versus nan memory, which is nonvolatile and it's saved,

all of your passwords on a usb key. that's considered nan. what these analysts are saying is there's a lot of strength right now in the dram market. why we're seeing the subsequent, and it should benefit names like micron. i want to point out mizuho put out a small note, a few lines, saying they like western digital because that company focuses on the nan part, the nonvolatile. they say there's still a lot of upside in the near term for this name. so, there's -- it's a little confusing with all the acronyms but it seems like right now memory prices could see an upswing, even though we're seeing weakness in other sectors like semicap equipment, even names like nvidia have been falling down, all those a.i. plays. >> yeah. and that initiation of arm at underperform at bernstein, i think the chip business is confusing all the time. thanks. kristina partsinevelos. instacart getting ready to price its ipo tonight. what investors need to know about that debut and what arm's action can tell us about

valuations. plus, programming note. don't miss a cnbc special. cnbc leaders ken griffin with new unheard sound from our interview last week. that airs tonight 8:00 p.m. right here on cnbc. here's a sneak preview. i did, of course, ask ken about the new movie "dumb money" and how he's portrayed in it. >> i haven't seen the movie so i can't really comment on that. i have a small vignette, about 90 seconds of film time. it's a great story. i hope they produced a great movie. i will absolutely see it. and i hope it has a lot of important lessons for american investors. you want to be part of making a call on the right business. that's going to be defining tomorrow. you want to be the investor in nvidia. you want to be the investor in apple and jobs return. you don't want to be the investor in a spec to bubble that eventually bursts. that's not where you want to be.

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the big tech ipo is back. arm, instacart this week. now another venture-backed company. they're not all going public at sky high valuations. our deirdre bosa has a look at 2023 ipo valuations and just how much is different for today's "techcheck," deirdre. >> you said it, the ipo market is back, but so far it looks a lot different than it did a few years ago. one this wave will include some down rounds, meaning companies will raise capital beneath their prior valuations. instacart is going public at a fraction of its peak valuation, which bernstein calls reasonable and even conservative if it can return to better growth. there's also clavio, an enterprise software play and it looks to price its listing just under its last financing round in 2022. it would be another down round. there was arm's successful ipo. that was considered an up round. but it's trickier since softbank

has been the sole shareholder since they took it private in 2017. and it's falling today as they consider that hefty premium to other semi companies. this difference this time around, there's more scarcity. the floats are relatively tiny. on average companies have sold 16% to 29% of their shares in ipos over the last decade. arm with 10% and instacart and klaviyo, 8%. it also means new investors will have fewer rights related to voting power and corporate governance. one reason companies are floating less is because the current market is seen as more fragile for new listings. the companies are putting less of themselves out there and increasingly seeking the security, the backing of cornerstone investors. arm courted big tech customers like nvidia and amazon as potential anchor customers. instacart said norway sovereign

planned to invest. now, a cornerstone investor agrees to have their name published in the company's ipo prospectus in return for guaranteed allocation of shares. the hope is that may support the price or encourage other retail investors to get in. you could call this de-risking. they are the beguinea pigs of ts ipo cycle. they'll do anything to make it successful, even if that means raising less money. the question is will other ipo candidates see this as an attractive model or say, we'll sit it out, maybe we'll raise money at higher valuations later. that's the question ipo candidates in the pipeline will be asking themselves over the next weeks. >> i was going to ask, who are they? who else is in the pipeline? can they sort of come up with these quality controls that appear more necessary in this environment? >> well, some might argue klaviyo is more important because you have more enterprise

software companies in the wings. data bricks had a rare upround in the private market, so that could be a candidate. many enterprise software companies of the last years are not looking at up rounds. they're looking at tougher comps in the public markets. that's why they're judging these so closely. you've also got discord, some consumer names as well. they're all facing that idea. we talked about this valuation disparity. they think they're worth more than what the public market wants to price them at. are they going to wait or tap private markets again, which is also undergoing its revaluation. >> fanatics is another one i'm watching in the consumer world. thank you. straight ahead, we'll talk to bain's head of technology, what's ahead for deal-making. plus, is declining attendance on broadway the biggest recession indicator that nobody's watching? i'm sure carl's watching it. we'll talk about it.

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some of the best trends in tech. bane out, and key highlights include a crowded buyers market ahead, and it budgets remain strong. when it comes to a.i., a lot of industries and jobs are made for animation. and let's go to david. i wanted to start with some of the macro takeaways here, and when we go into a recession,

that's one place we see companies cut. >> we have seen several years of cios reflecting cuts in budgets, necessary pullbacks, et cetera, less so than historic downturns because tech has become so essential to the way we operate businesses, and we are seeing sentiment turning more positive and increasing in budgets this year. >> because of a.i.? >> well, it's a number of things, and the austerity measures in the last 18 months, but, yes, a.i. is a huge driver of demand at this point. >> we talk about more of the montaization, and people say wait until next year, and they point to q1, and does that seem ambition to you? >> i actually think, you know, there's a lot of technologies

where we might advise a wait and see or a posture of wait until maturity, and this is not one of them, and we see a.i. uniquely disruptive and uniquely capable of driving innovation, and the hold back is the time it takes to redesign your business processes to make use of these new technologies. i think you will -- you are already seeing the cross in our client base the applications of this new capability. think about the last time you were given a tool that would allow you to improve business productivity by 8 or 10%. >> for some of those macro bulls, and for those that argue it's going to provide support to markets and global economies over the next three to five years, you don't think that is

misplaced? >> not at all. we will have a roadmap of innovation, that will likely last a decade. >> i think there's a broad range of places -- i think it will, first and foremost, drive the efficiency in every industry, and there's a number of attractive startups as well, and if you just follow the most prevalent use cases of code development and acceleration, and things like knowledge assistance for customer handling and other applications, i think you will find yourself with plenty of investment opportunities. >> people argue that proponents of a.i. and the evolution of the technology want to down play the affects of the employment, and by that i mean the jobs that are going to get lost. do you think there will be a

number of people that might be displaced? >> there's no shortage of analyst that published impact assessments and head count numbers, and we will see that transition historically, and transitions have created new opportunities as well, and we are seeing that as well. reskilling, redeployment and so forth will be pretty important, i think, in this wave. absolutely, it's going to be a significant disruption to day-to-day workers. >> everybody says call centers, and i feel like that's the poster child for the jobs that will be disrupted or replaced by a.i. what other industries do you think we should watch there? >> yeah, i think, you know, i will say first of all that we are seeing the disruption develop quite broadly, whether you are in health care, retail or oil and gas and you are one of our clients, you are deploying generative a.i., and

it's a software deployment acceleration, and knowledge assistance where it's being used to handle customer handling or self discovery, and you will find the most important places, and if you think about industries that turns out to be highly concentrated -- those activities turn out to be highly concentrated. and tech companies are quite impacted. >> but are those companies hiring fewer workers or laying off workers as a result? >> i think the ones that are furthest along in the journey -- this is a complex journey, and the ones furthest along in the journey have already done so and you will see more in the next three to five years. >> and there was a roundtable last week, and it was about whether or not regulation acts as a drag to innovation.

i wonder if you think whether or not regulators have a handle on the technology to put a drag on what is already happening, obviously? >> they have the authority and power to do so. it would be in my experience unprecedented for them to move that quickly, and certainly over a three-year horizon, i think regulation will become very, very important. >> thank you for joining us with the insights. we look forward to hearing back from you. >> thank you. wall street is buzzing about broadway shows today and how attendance might be a indicator. there's a number of people going to broadway shows and they have been falling faster than normal in recent weeks. you can see there the 2023 line. they will be monitoring to see if it picks up in the fall. they say it's important to watch because consumer services are an important reason why the economy has held up despite the fed hikes. you talk about goods and services all the time. this fits right into that?

>> why do you think that is? you follow broadway closer than anybody i know? >> the consensus is new york lost attendance of suburbanites, and some argue because it's a lack of hits, and maybe broadway got by on novelty in the pandemic, and tourism is easier to predict. >> it's a shame for new york city. we need that. it brings in a lot of revenue. look at the markets here as we head out. we are around session highs. energy leads the gains as crude oil continues to climb. we are around $92 a barrel. and arm is selling off today, but still obviously had a strong start. it's off the lows of the day. of course, the big event of the week will be the fed decision on wednesday. we are not expecting any major changes from fed chair powell, but the tone will be important and so will the dots on the forecast of where they think the

rates will be going next year. >> yeah, and we are in an ear earnings vacuum, and it's about pmis and housing this week. >> yeah, we will wait to see about government shutdowns and student loans, and it's a little early to tell if it will drag our economy down. >> well said. let's get to the judge and the half. >> front is center this hour, a return of volatility. why some say we are in for a rocky stretch for stocks. the investment committee sizing up the marchet's next move. josh brown, shannon, joe terranova and steve weiss joining me for the hour. there's the s&p 500, good for one-third of 1%. and the ten-year note yield 432. that's the story of the day, weiss, we are mostly hanging in there. >> yep