be material to their quarterly results, but they say they do have everything up and running and i asked them for an update on the investigation and they said the investigation is ongoing and brought in outside consultants. >> eamon, thank you very much for following the story on clorox we appreciate it and we appreciate you for joining us on "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. kelly, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner from post 9 at the new york stock exchange. this houri begins with mega-caps moment and likely to decide the overall market and which way it goes in the week ahead it comes as the nasdaq is on its worst month since last december. it was getting a lift today as we begin the final hour and it is now in the red. let me show you the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation apple helping the markets across the board. that stock looking to reverse its recent slide tech was the best sector of the day, no longer, though

now it's energy and financials and tech is still positive, but taking a bit of a backseat to those other sectors and oil prices hitting the highest level and that's proving to be a headwind of sorts for stocks and rates have been, too, and a mixed picture depending on which end of the curve you look. it takes us to the talk of the tape the most important trade of the market and its biggest stock we are talking tech and apple which have both looked a bit shaky lately it's no wonder that stocks overall are choppy, too. the question is whether that selling in apple is overdone as the new iphone hits the mark and some on wall street suggest orders are already stronger than expected let's ask our steve kovac. he follows that story closer than anybody what is this i read some notes today that seems to be suggesting that this is off to a really strong start. >> yeah. morgan stanley put it this way, scott, quote, better than feared and that's what they said this morning and they were looking for data from iphone 15 pre-orders that started just a few days ago this echoes bullish notes on

preorders from j.p. morgan, bank of america and wedbush and dan ives saying the same thing early demand appears strong for the iphone 15 lineup especially for the pro models and more specifically for the pro macs which cost $100 more than it did a year ago morgan stanley saying early demand stronger than it has been in seven years wait times are up to six weeks if you try to order an iphone 15 pro max, and china concerns a couple of weeks ago about the reported ban of iphones far government employees wait times are actually longer for the iphone 15 in china than the u.s. that's good news if you're hoping for apple to return to top line growth this quarter after a three quarters in a row of declining sales, but even if that doesn't happen in the september quarter, better news for next quarter when comparisons will look easier after last year's production delays caused by china's covid lockdowns and we're going to get

a better sense of this, scott, after the quarter is over and apple reports those september quarter results. >> you just said it. this is really what the doctor ordered and what apple needed to reverse those trends which were going in the wrong direction. >> it's not just that, scott we're learning a lesson over the last couple of years there with the pro iphones and it seems like people like to gravitate toward those models and even though apple just raised the prices on the top tier max phone and that's what apple does now and they put the best feature on those pro forms and they trickle down the following year for the regular line for example, the iphone 15 and the regular iphone 15 is basically last year's iphone pro in a different shell if you're upgrading and you want the latest and greatest that apple has to offer, it seems like people are gravitating towards those pros and sales growth. >> and no doubt whether the stock will stabilize itself. steve kovac covering apple for us let's bring in annika crawford

nice to see you again. >> good to see you >> tech is always front and center and apple is up almost 5% year to date and that's definitely led to a more uncertain and i guess more rocky environment in tech, hasn't it >> i think the overall market feels choppier than we've seen if the first nine months of this year and china that was supposed to work and come out of covid didn't come out and ureurope admittedly in a recession and the u.s. consumer showing signs of a little more pressure on the consumer so we're headed into choppier markets and that's basically just water falling >> do you generally feel as apple goes so goes the market right now just because it's been a market-weighted show for the most part since the beginning of the year it's the biggest stock in the market. >> yeah. i think -- i think that there are other stocks that are leading or also, you know, flags for the mark and whether it's

microsoft, nvidia as well as apple. i don't think it's an apple-only game this time >> what about the rest of tech do you feel it's wobbly? do you think it has the staying power? do you still feel it's viewed as somewhat defensive than if it has rockiness in the market that once things settle out this will be the place to be >> as growth becomes more elusive, what we tend to do is go towards growth and companies that have product cycles and in part, we do that because that growth is somewhat disengaged from the broader economic volatility so i think because of that and because of this a.i. story and because of the product cycles that big tech is bringing to the table right now that will act in a more defensive way >> what about valuations some would suggest -- you're smiling because you know everyone is talking about this very question as to where real rates are and whether overall valuations are too rich and front and center they zone in on

tech and the techs say they're way above the historical averages and almost across the board. >> i would counter that by saying which company are they talking about? you take meta. last time i was here you asked me the same question about valuation and i said meta's cheap. meta's numbers went up and the numbers are 6% lower than it was in the quarter the stock is still inexpensive and kind of trading at a mid-15 times multiple on 15%-type growth so the valuations don't necessarily seem that stretched to me. some of them you have to look one year out like in microsoft's case, but remember, 85% of microsoft's revenue is occurring in nature. >> i'm looking at, you know, some of these stocks over the say the last week and i wonder how you feel about microsoft microsoft is not getting a lot of talk these days after stealing the show as it were with a.i., until nvidia blew

everyone out of the water and the stock is down 3% over the week and has aren't had the greatest move of late. how do you look at that now? >> look, i think when you think about some of these businesses, you have to take in purview longer than a week and longer than four weeks and longer than a month and for companies that are up 40%, 200%, 150% they need time to breathe, and you know, by looking at these stocks on a daily basis it can actually be confusing for investors. so you have to kind of look at the phrase and not the stack at on and individual notes. >> you asked me what nvidia was doing and right now it's red and it's been a little shaky lately, a little bit how do you view -- that valuation's actually come down, right, over the last several months once it reported earnings and

gave guidance it got cheaper. >> nvidia on the whisper number on the street today trades at 22 times in 2024 and that's not an egregious multiple for nvidia. 23 you look at the long-only holders there's a lot of big, long-only holders that are still underweight the stock and the demand for the stock to buy is still there. i think the which or the street is oh, if it comes in a little bit more we'll top off our positions. so, again, i think when the stock goes up 200, 250% we've got to give it time to breathe and it's healthy for the stock as it consolidates in place. if you look at the fundamentals for nvidia just last week or two weeks ago they put up a software update, it doubled their performance. you know, there's no denying the dominance that nvidia has in this market. >> you own tesla it is up 23% over one month. that blows all of the

magnificent seven, the other names out of the water and not even close how do you view tesla here >> i think adam jen onas of morn stanley made a great point is the dojo which is driving fsd which is fully self-driving is going to be a gateway to all other things ai for tesla. whether it's humanoids and the robots and they get into automation or delivery or robo taxis and they need vision in order to operate so if tesla can figure out fsd, highly likely it throws open the gates to tans that are enormous. >> they a look at the stock as i said, 23.5% over month quickly on broader market before i expand the conversation. fed meets this week. what are you expecting and what has obviously been a historically challenged month

for stocks after you get through quadruple witching and you have many weeks of a rocky market how do you see things settling out? >> so as for the fed, i think they just need to wait and watch and see how the economy unblossoms, per se >> how much it slows as we go into earnings, however, consumer conferences and consumers seem confident about back to school software conferences and the company seemed confident about their numbers and as we go into earnings season, i expect that the market will perk up a little bit as the numbers, at least stay flat if not go up >> secretary yellen and treasury secretary yellen today on this network -- i totally get, she's a member of the administration now and shooe's not the chair of the federal reserve and she has to project the message the administration wants to get out. she maintains the economy is still strong and no sign of the

consumer fading to any degree. what do you put to that? >> the consumer is still strong, surprisingly we've been waiting for the consume tore fall out of bed for a while and the consumer hasn't fallen out of bed. however, our job is to anticipate what's going to happen over the next six to nine months >> keith lerner, truist. >> good to be with you, scott. that's not a great place to be and there are crosscurrents and throughout september and we'll shop around and as you have been discussing we had big gains in the beginning of the year and the expectations were low for the market and we sur preeszed on earnings and we surprised on inflation, and i think on the near-term it's just a lack of near-term catalyst the way we break this out of the range and what we're doing with that is we're being patient and we're more in line versus stocks, bonds and versus cash right now and waiting for an opportunity to present itself and right now,

like we said, we have to be patient. >> catalysts you talk about. what are they on the earnings? we're a little while away as expectation havent kr up and the numbers better live up to the hype where the valuation of the market is giving rates. >> markets can correct in time or price we're having more of of a time correction right here. if you look at earnings, the forward 12-month estimates are at a 52-week high and they've been relatively resilient and the market valuation is not cheap by any means and it is reasonable and the next catalyst will be the earnings season, but near-term we'll go into the discussion about the fed and what will power tell us that we don't know today the market has shifted toward higher for longer and pushing out rate hikes -- i'm sorry, rate cuts further out next year. so we're in this chop back and forth and as we get to an oversold condition that's probably time to move some money in and if we have an overshoot on the upside, maybe an opportunity to take some money

off the table, but in the interim, be patient, there is a relative opportunity among the sectors that we can talk about, as well. >> do you think earnings expectation are too optimistic. >> for 2024? >> well, for the rest of this year and '24 >> not necessarily for this year i think for 2024 maybe, which also will lead us to a choppier market there are some that expect that earnings will be down 15% next year i'm not in that camp i think we'll have a softer landing than that, anywhere from 0 to 5% which is up ten. >> what do you think of the remainder of this year because they have three consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth and now we're positive and they get richer and even into '24 they're more optimistic than that. >> as we go through this earnings season i expect earnings will stay flat to go up you know, industrials are weak if you look at sector by sector and software seems okay, and semis are deteriorating because

they have a global footprint industrials feel weaker, and they have a global footprint and businesses that have exposure to europe, china and nia. those guys are all under pressure u.s.-based business that are u.s. consumer led, the numbers go up. >> i'm talking directly about a sector you like, the industrials. she's making the case about why you don't want to be there you suggest you should, why? >> i think it has secular tailwinds and there has been weakness and as far as the fiscal stimulus and the ira bill is still going to happen them out as well as the infrastructure bill, and i think the geopolitical landscape will be challenged and there will be multi-year tailwinds with the sector even though acknowledging theshort-term weakness here. >> what kind of timeframe are you talking about with short-term weakness. >> if you expect the economy

which should do to continue to weaken whether it's in a slow pace or not and you know that china's recovery seems uneven, at best and there are industrial stocks with the global play want to mention what's going on with the dollar, too. >> near-term the next couple of weeks as we move through this shop and even as we move into year end i still like the sector and talking about china i think right now expectation are so low with china that continues to hear this drip and that will help firm some of the global economy and we're not looking for something robust and then you add to that the trickle on as far as the stimulus and i think it's an interesting sector and again, the defense spending. yes, by year end we expect it to be an outperformer from where we are today. >> you like discretionary, too i feel like we have to be careful when we talk about that sector because am one and tesla,

as i was just talking about with anker could be a whole entire success, and we're not bullish on the retailers and we call it a kwquasi growth sector and they're a growth component and i don't recommend today stocks and the teslas and the amazons you think are a better relative performers relative to the retailers than where we've seen weakness and we think that will likely continue with the higher interest rates and student loans and some of the reduction in excess savings that weigh on the sectors. so yes, it's a bifurcated sector to you. >> ankur, over to you. highest prices of the year energy is it going to wake up? is it in the process of being quoten up? >> i think they're up already. >> it is unusual for a growth manager because there's a big

change going on, and it will be a supply constraint. so we think higher energy prices >> good to see you, an ara crawford, let's get to the question of the day, with the nasdaq on pace for the worst month since december, should you buy cap stocks on that dip you can head out to vote and the results are coming in an hour. arm shares are being crushed today. kristina partsinevelos is here to tell us what exactly is going on kristina >> there was a lot of excitement for this ipo last week and although shares are still over the $51 a share pricing of the offer, not everyone is impressed with arm sending shares down 7%. everyone beating bernstein and they're initiating an underperform rating with $46 saying it is still too soon to call arm an ai winner. think of arm as a coding language in which companies leak

elec like apple, and central processing unit and cps and not the ai graphic chips we keep hearing about. they're also 45% exposed to smartphones. a sector that is very cyclical and hence why bernstein doesn't think arm should be called an ai winner unlike, what else, nvidia and its gpu chips. needham initiating a hold last friday for the same reason that arm has not been able to replicate its success into data sectors and the cloud. both of those reasons why you're seeing the stock drop as of friday afternoon and today. >> kristin ar, we'll be back to you in just a bit. the the invitational golf merger and later on the game itself grocery games.

instacart is set to top in the ipo market we'll ask one top vc whether this signals an end to the ipo slowdown and what could be next. wooe live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ ♪ fly to paris. see th smaller than you expected. wait in line. see the mona lisa. smaller than you expected. check in. see your room. bigger than you expected. join one key, where gold and platinum members get travel perks, like room upgrades.

welcome back the behrenberg invitational kicking off today at the glen arbor golf club in new york with some of the world's top players competing to raise funds for bank rattic cancer research. around $1.5 million has been raised in the past two years they're hoping to cross the $2

million mark this year one of the players, golf hall of famer and former pga champion fred couples joins me now. good to see you. welcome to "closing bell". >> thank you, scott. nice to be on. >> yes not the best weather, obviously to play golf in today, but a great cause, as we said. tell me a little bit more about what drew you up there in new york well, i've been with behrenberg seven or eight years now and we used to have one in england and gary player's our ambassador and gary and i have been lifelong friends even though he's 22 or three years older and it's a nice spot to be and i love the guys at behrenberg it's okay for the three holes i'm going to miss to talk to you, but behrenberg does a lot of things that i enjoy seeing. i'm like an ambassador, but i'm a golfer so i wear the hat. i go play, and do the best i

can. henrik rymer is the one that really takes care of me and he's the number one guy and we've gotten to be great friends and the pancreatic cancer side of it is just amazing and just to my right when we're done playing we'll go in and have a denner and th and a bit of a show and song and dance and i leave her shaking my head, scott. >> we wish you the best in raising as much money as you can. i don't think it's news to anybody that you've been one of the most popular players on tour for a long time, well before you won the masters in '92 so when you speak people listen to what you have to say and you've been one of the most outspoken players, i think, about the liv tour and the future of that relationship with the pga tour i'm wondering, what was your first reaction when you heard of this potential deal between liv and the pga tour >> what a question, and i've

answered it the same every single time. it affects the pga tour immensely, but really, what affected me is how these guys leaving, not all of them i shouldn't even say five of them and how wrong it was and how they're better off playing on the liv tour. i've spent this is my 43rd year on the pga tour and i represent it the best i can, and i've played it a long time and the champions tour, scott, is great. it just offended me. just go play your golf and play your 54-hole bets and sometimes i felt bad about what i said, but you know what i talk to other people i don't think i said anything horrific i just reacted to what some of the guys that left said. brooks brooks koepka and dustin johnson, and we've kept in touch, we laugh every other day about stuff, and i have no qualms with 99% of the guys.

it affects the tour. i'm no long or that tour, but what affected me is just the things they had to say. >> do you hope it doesn't happen >> i never thought it would happen i never thought it would get off the ground, but i guess when you have, i'm not smart enough to figure out how many billions you can get people to follow the money. i don't know if it's going to go away, again, scott that's another great question. i'm so old that i don't -- i pay attention to every golfer that plays on the pga tour, but if it goes away, is that going to be good i don't know if that's going to be good or not can we intertwine? i'm not smart enough to figure that out i'm sure they will try and do something, but we do have brooks koepka on the ryder cup team and every player on the team wanted him andwe still have nice feelings about the liv guys, but would i want to see it go away

it doesn't matter to me, really, anymore. their tour is set. they have their 48 guys. i don't think any new guys have joined in five or six months so it is what it is >> you are obviously on the champions tour, and i know you care deeply about the pga tour itself do you worry about the pga tour financially and what it's going to potentially be ten years from now? >> i never really worried about it until, what eight months ago when we had no real idea and we're asking tournament sponsors to no longer have a 12 or $13 million event, to have a $20 million event and now you have a company for five years if they want to upgrade and so-called get the best players in the world, that's going to cost their company another $40 million. that's a lot to ask. so i'mer mo of a golfer. i listen to your show. i watch it all of the time and i have interest on the clicker that's going below me, but as far as the money part of it,

yeah i think it's like getting into a fight. if you have a sword versus a gun you're in big trouble and they have a lot of money. they went at the tour hard we fought back as best we could and now we're trying to possibly go together, but again, i don't speak with jay hon hamonahan ore tour on this stuff, but i listened and i kind of think it's slowing down and their tour, they're playing in chicago, i guess this week because brooks will be leaving from there and i don't watch it. i do see who wins. i'm entertained by wo ho wins their events and i'm a pga tour guy completely. >> we followed you on the tour and i remember you wearing cadillac and sponsored by general motors for a long time. >> right. >> it obviously had something to do with you not endorsing general motors and you are now with ashworth which you actually

wore which people might not remember when you won the masters in '92 >> correct go ahead >> i'm curious as to whether at this stage in your life and your career you look at endorsements and sponsor sships than you did 20, 30 years ago >> i look for the best possible fit and i'm lucky enough that i still have clothes that have sponsors on them right now i think i have fidelity and ukg and behrenberg and now with ashworth, and i was with them for close to 30 years. it's great to be back. they make unbelievable clothing. i wear the clothing proud, but my sponsors are well chosen. you are correct. i wore cadillac for a hundred years and every year it was a done deal with pete de rosa and pete's still alive and doing well and he's a very good friend

and i signed with my manager every year and it was a one-year deal and it finally ran out after 18 years, but yes, ukg, fidelity title and obviously behrenberg, i couldn't ask for anything better than me. >> lastly, before you go, i know you're close to tiger and he's spoken fondly about you and you play practice rounds all of the time do you think he's going to be able to play all four majors next year? how do you see the progression from here forward for tiger? >> i never asked tiger any of that, but i've heard from other doctors that said maybe he had this last surgery so it might not help him immediately, but down the line where he can play four events. scott, if you watched, if he plays good rounds this year in augusta, it was so wet, so cold, so sloppy that he couldn't play 72 holes and it's a crushing

blow to us, but to talk to him at night it's just an emotional letdown for tiger. so hopefully, if he plays the father/son which we all know and he plays four majors i think that would be enough for the golfing world and maybe he'll come play with us on the champions tour. >> if he plays anywhere it would be good to see fred, i appreciate your time so very much. we'll see you soon >> okay. thank, keep up the great work. >> i appreciate that very much fred couples, great cause playing golf on the side of that cause. straight ahead, don't call it a comeback star venture capitalist rick heitzmann and which company he expects to be next and here is a quick word as cnbc celebrates hispanic heritage. >> i find that many latinx grow up in america trying to fit in and fitting in is very different from having a sense of

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arm shares down 6% despite an initially successful market debut last week. we're expecting instacart to set their ipo pricing in overtime during the next hour joining us now is rick heitzmann. welcome back >> hi, scott how are you? >> let's look forward. i'll ask you about arm in a second what are the expect eggs and what is going to be a down round the way you look at it definitely going to be a down round and they raise money at $38 million a couple of years ago.

it will be down 70%. >> wow >> but it's structured so it's going to be a well-performing ipo. so they cut price. they limited the float and priced it for a pop. >> what goes through the mind of a venture capitalist, an investor who got in at 39. >> yes. >> and who is sitting there today. put me in their head and i don't know how to think about that. >> there are people who got in at 24 cents. >> they're feeling really great. >> they're fine. and the guys at 39 the guys at 39 billion saying i need to get liquid i can hold it on my bocks and it'it doesn't do anyone any good get the stock liquid. >> go public. >> go public, because you're putting off inevitable >> what does it success about where we were and where we are and the tremendous reality check

that's taken place over the last 18+ months. >> hey, there will abe lot of companies that we'll have to face even the best performing companies and instacart this week they both perform at the top end of their metrics and the sass market and the consumer market and they'll both take the discount to go public. the ipo market will not function until people capitulate on value and there's a reasonable reflection of value in that ipo price and then we also said the first people that go out will have very good metrics and growingis inially and strong margins, profitable. >> instacart is profitable >> profitable, growing quickly and great consumer retention metrics and we'll price in a discount for a pop so this is the last piece. so it will get -- and pull buyers back into the market and that's a false, true ipo and these two will show how receptive those buyers are to the market

>> how will that mentality of what you described want to get liquid and later stage vc where the valuations were super rich and how is that going to impact the pipeline of other companies that are in the cue and the push/pull. some wanting them to go public and get liquid so that they can get out versus waiting for the right time i think the mature venture capitalists will say the market is what the market is. so what we paid two years ago, might not be a true reflection of value and where the market is is a true reflection of value and it's for the company to let the company trade at a market price, begin to get liquid and return the liquidity to our investors and if we made a bad investment and that's down 52% >> so arm last week. we have instacart and you said there are many others in the cue and people mention the same names over and over again. what is the state of the ipo

market where are we >> we are all on the edge of our seat we are all waiting for the next couple of days and you're pricing instacart in the next hour the anticipation is they've moved up the range and hopefully they'll price in the high end of the range and you start getting those signals of a traditional ipo pricing at the high end of the range and pricing in the multiple band that there's a lot of people with their finger on the button of draft to submit their one to the sec >> how do you look at the arm ipo? it was successful the day after and there we have a pullback of 6% today and customers participating in the deal. was it as good as it seemed on the surface because of those variables? >> it's also upside and also in the ecosystem. there's a number of buyers they had to buy so they were able to take advantage of a lot of insider buying or ecosystem buying to artificially create

that pop, but they pretty fully priced it. i don't think anybody was expecting that stock to either double or persist and it was a mature site. not growing and priced at 20+ times revenue whereas this next wave of companies are more the traditional tech growth stocks >> good stuff. we'll continue to use you as our guide on all things tech and ipos thank you very much. rick heitzmann joining us once again. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head to the close and kristina partsinevelos has that. >> a company wants to mass produce taxis from ohio and commercial passenger service is around the corner for you and i. i'll explain next.

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all right. we're about 15 out from the closing bell and let's go to kristina partsinevelos joby aviation building its first manufacturing hub and what do they want to do? they want to mass produce taxis from dayton, ohio. federal aviation certification for its flying ev aircraft so it can begin commercial passenger

service in 2025, and that's why shares are up almost 5%. unity software is falling even as it starts walking back the new fee that stoked backlash from developers last week. the company apologized for the fee which would have charged customers for every installation of the game and said it would share updates in the coming days and that's why shares are off 7.5% >> dayton. >> kristina partsinevelos. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked with the nasdaq facing its first month since december, should you buy the mega-cap tech stock dip? head to @cnbcclosingbell the results after the break. ♪ ♪ ♪

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>> question of the day should you buy the mega-cap dip? the majority of you said you should 58%, as a matter of fact up next, retail stocks are putting a break and that's just ahead when we take you inside "the market zone."

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♪ ♪ closing bell market zone, cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, plus diana olick on what founding sentiment could mean for stocks and as we dig into the moves of the retail space we will talk about that, as well. mike santoli, to you first a bit of a choppy day. interesting, our poll buy the mega-cap dip and that will decide in some respects where we go from here in the shorter term. >> to a large degree, and whether they -- i would say earned the status as defensive that's always the question right now we actually have a bit of a defensive tone in the market we have cyclicals on the weaker side banks are down again and everyone knows it's supposed to be a tough time of year, and i generally agree that the index is likely and captive to what

the largest stocks do in a big picture way, but i will say coming into today uapple was of 3% off its high and nvidia was 3% off its high. >> and even with the concern out there, if there are said concerns, the vix is up shy of 3% and it's 14 >> this is just a monday, rebuild the volatility type of move when the index is flat, the vix can't go anywhere. >> unless there's something strange and anticipated and also bond market volatility has really come off the boil and correlations among stocks and sectors that goldman had to date on this, it's basically at two-year lows and when you have correlations low, everything offsets and the index itself does not get swung around on macro moves and we had a down 1% and it was the first one in almost a month so there will not be a lot of volatility coming off the environment and even though we know it's a tough time of year and we had the late cycle

signals that are peeking out >> diana olick, what are we learning about home builder sentiment these days >> the builders had been benefiting big time from the supply of older homes for sale and high mortgage rates are killing affordability all around now and as a result, builder sentiment fell into negative territory for the first time in serve months mortgage rates went over 7% and they've not come back over that line, and today it's 7.32% builders are going back to incentives and 32% said they cut prices in september and that's compared to 25% in august and the largest share since december of last year and the discount of 6% and that is why builder's stocks are not taking it so well and the home construction etf was flat on the day, but in the red for the month and lennar last week reported strong earnings and the stock dropped immediately because lennar reported lowering prices and mortgage rates are really hitting the builders hard. >> no doubt about that i'm looking at consumer

discretionary and down 1% and diana olick, thank you so very much a number of retail stocks are selling off today, speaking off discretionary, gap, kohl's, burlington among the hardest hit in the session evercore saying it's time to play the space defensively highlighting costco and walmart as one of its top picks. >> costco and walmart are just kind of when you're worried about the consumer, that's the place you go a lot of things are piling up. we all know everyone's trying to run the student loan repayment through their numbers and gasoline prices where they are everything you're seeing kind of pop up seems to move in the direction of, there's going to be less to go around ford discretionary and intentions for holiday spending not that encouraging and even though we're a couple of months out and it usually doesn't necessarily follow and i just think it's a tough time right now to feel as if this is the moment to start taking risk even if what looked

like cheap stocks. kohl's down a bunch today. the dollar stores have kept going down, even after they had the post-earnings jumps and dollar tree and dollar general looked pretty awful almost to the point where you wonder if you're finally getting to a washout stage and nobody thinks unemployment will shoot up and it's around the edges and we well the front loading of good spending and it's looking like it's poised to take off and everybody else, people travelled a lot and we spent the money where we would spend it. if you get the bank of america consumer credit weekly survey, things are pretty stable even though credit card usage is up a couple of percentage points among low-income households and still not as high as it was in 2019 everything looks like that not as good as it was, but still better than it was before the pandemic. >> i'm looking at certain stocks tesla today down 3 1/3% and just

adding to the discretionary weakness, of course. the other thing, fed complacency. do you sense any out in the market or have they decided that they're not going to do anything in the next couple of days >> if there's complacency around the fed i don't think it's assuming a hold on wednesday, meaning i don't think anyone will be surprised about an actual rate move and whether they change their outlook enough in a way that makes it seem like they'll have to restart the fight against inflation and putting november right back on the table and then suggest there might be one after that. i guess we might brace for that, but i think they'll use the luxury of time, and i think that's the fed owe orientation and we think rates are roughly where they're supposed to be give or take a little bit and we have the effect of the amount of time seems to be. >> and we do get the so-called dot plot of this time around and it would be helpful to get the

outlook and wondering whether this rise in oil prices is affecting that outlook by what they think about where inflation is going and the highest level of the year today, north of 91 >> the commentary around that might be interesting and you can play that both ways and all they seem to say they care about is core non-housing services inflation. that's nowhere near fuel and headline inflation going up if it contracts from spending any other places and it's not necessarily the scary part where it does come into play is inflation expectations so if they saw the consumer inflation expectation start to go up and that sometimes goes hand in hand with gasoline prices going up and at the same time consumer confidence comes down, that's where it seems like a tricky spot. i keep saying $90 oil and we've been here in the smaller economy and it shouldn't be that big a deal and the psychological effect shouldn't be discounted >> your point is well taken and what the fed is really focused on they can make the argument that goods inflation's coming down.

and housing inflation is coming down and it's the non-housing which is the sticky part mike, i appreciate it. that's mike san tolly, senior markets commentator and i'll send it into o.t. right now with morgan and jon [ closing bell ringing ] >> call it the calm before the storm as stocks close essentially flat ahead of the fed this week. that's the scorecard on wall street, but the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell overtime." i'm morgan brennan and jon fortt is on assignment have stocks reached a breaking point in the big three as the uaw strike drags on and we'll talk to a portfolio manager who says there are still names to buy in the auto world. plus, we'll talk to the man behind the musk book walte