on the dot plots and of course, the idea of higher for longer. mike santoli, we'll see you tomorrow thank you. here's something else you might want to watch tomorrow, jon fortt's interview with pat gelsinger from the innovation event and that will be happening here on "overtime" at 8:00 p.m. eastern. that will do it for "overtime" "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite in the heart of times square this is "fast money. here's what's on tap, up and up, the ten-year hitting its highest intra-day level in more than 15 years and one market watcher is saying this rate surge makes the market rally completely unsustainable. plus apple's golden delicious day. the stock popping as iphone preorder seems strong and the host of analysts paint a bullish picture for the tech giant and we'll go into the numbers and ark investment ceo cathie wood is weighing in on tesla shares

and it has 2023 rebound and the cloud and ai, and i'm melissa from the nasdaq marketsite, tim seymour, guy adamy and steve grasso and we begin with the milestone move in interest rates and the yield on 10-year treasurys briefly touching the heightest levels in more than 16 years this morning before pulling back just a touch, two-year trading where it was just before the collapse of svb and the move higher hasn't seemed to stop the stock market and they're basically flat today and they're all still well in positive territory for the year. it's a phenomenon that has one wall street veteran scratching its head and michael kolanovic saying the move with stocks and rates is unsustainable and will this correct be corrected and does that moon a reckoning is coming for equities? we played this game often. >> did you show me the chart >> you jumped the gun! >> was that what you were going to say >> no. i was waiting for you to ask the question >> if i said the 10-year yield

will get to the 15-year high. >> the october low and the equities are not trading well and the russell small-cap stocks are probably underperforming the market which is getting whacked and the vix is approaching. >> and what happened >> none of those thing are happening and how do you reconcile yourself one of two ways, obviously yields start to back up and equities continue to go higher and equities figure it out by the way, there is a scenario where yields go lower and the equities go lower and if the market starts to sell uf precipitously, you might see a flight to quality in the form of a bond market. >> that's interesting where rates are, because -- you mentioned svb, if you told me rates would be back up pre-svb, for the most part banks have been the biggest underperformer of the major sector groups i like marco's group and when he

says stuff like this, i listen and pointing out things like this is easy and mark has been doing it and a lot of people are doing it and the s&p and talk about a divergence there are all kinds of things going and clearly, as it relates to today and this is a week where we have policy decisions in the u.s. and japan and the boe and it was a day when japanese stocks went to a 33-year high on the topix and it was a day when equities this morning and we looked at the first hour of trading and the semis which are the leadership group is down big and equities have been trading in sympathy with bond yield and there's a disconnect to close at some point on valuations and i think the stock market for the last month and a half has been paying attention. i'm glad you brought up small caps and the underperformance there is interesting and we know there's a whole host of financially oriented maims and if you look at the kre and it does not act particularly well and it looks like it's breaking

down technically i think what tim says is it's been very easy to point out divergences. it's not been easy to make money on the divergences and if you look at the yield where they are relative to a year ago and where the s&p is it's astounding and we're basically 4600, versus 3600 and they last the these levels about nine, ten months ago or so and the u.s. dollar and all of that to me should not be supportive of equity valuations and it's taking note within small caps and financials like we just said and we've yet to do that in the broad market and i'll make one last point in late 2021 there were no shortage of signs that we were about to go into an equity bare market despite the fact that the s&p made a new high in january 2022. there were lots of things urn the hood and that was a narrative that we talked about on the show and i think similar things are playing out right now in the equity markets and if we're looking at other risk

assets, it should signal, at least it does to me that we could be in for a period of downward volatility in the not so distant future. >> are you worried about stocks, grasso >> yeah. i'm always worried about stocks. i'll raise you mike goldstein out at imperical research where he points out that interest rate sensitivity for the u.s. economy is really less dependent on those that used to be more dependent. i'm paraphrasing and the path of interest rates doesn't dictate the market as you all have just said when you look at the market now, look at last week where the uaw was apple, it was china and spilling out to the rest of tech and it was oil moving higher and throw in there the cpi and ppi. you have some positive news there that made the market react with higher interest rates which

doesn't mean that the market is going down and then if you look at the fact set and the analytics through them, and this week in september is historically the worst week or five straight losing days in the market for the last 73 years. that's pretty important because you have mutual funds that wrap up their fiscal year in september and then in october. what does that mean? they markup and they mark down, but october is historically the month that everything rallies back because we're going into fourth quarter people are going towards november and december and that's seasonality. so i think that september has the outsized propensity to suck in a lot of bears. i'm not as worried as i think i should be on the market. >> i think the historical pattern that you pointed out that brings up the old saying sell rosh hashanah yand yom

kippur there was a flight seemingly to big-cap technology which then props the marks up we saw meta, alphabet, apple, semiconductors all do relatively better than the broader markets. >> interestingly, without question i go right to the dance to broaden it out, from 49 on and here we are at 42 and that's here materieling the story and a name like amb and now i'm cherry picking for sure that stock topped out at 138 and down from $100 nvidia had a decent day today and bounced off the lows and that stock very quietly is off about 15% from the post-market gains it saw after they reported so i think valuations matter in a higher environment i think rates are going higher and i don't know how equities could continue to be supported in a high-rate environment >> the stocks that should do best in that environment are the

stocks like a microsoft who basically has got zero debt on the balance sheet when you consider the balance sheet and the differential on what they paid in to lock in their debt which is what they're earning with the cash. they'll be earnings accretive in a high-rate environment and what does this mean we always yearn for the moment when we see the breadth in the market and we do not have to fall back with mega-cap tech we've seen the best days in terms of the aggregate s&p waiting and everything we talk about continues to support big-cap tech and it's not good for industrials and the value stocks and the places that have a lot of cyclicality and they underperform. >> we could have a scenario where rates go higher. >> because you have big tech propping everything higher. >> and that's how the markets are, and under the hood again, some of the technical stuff is breaking down and apple is the largest equity in the land if you look at netflix which is not a market cap term as

significant as the others and it's a sentiment lead are in the same way as meta that thing is down more than 20% from the recent high so there is technical damage being done, and i know we've talked about these airline stocks and maybe this has to do with oil, but lock at the transports when you look at what's in the transports we have fedex that will report later on in the week and we see how forly ups is acting and you have the tr freighters and the truckers. there are some things that you would normally tie to the performance of the economy in the stock market that are not trading particularly well, and i think we've been complacent for a long time and i think some of us, we, included on the wrong side of this for the better part of this year and the longer we go and we don't have a recession that the market was pricing a near certainty last year and then the market has to start pricing it in again, and going back to the start of this conversation, you think of the

way the dollar is moving and yields could go, and that's not supportive on equity markets we've done this with the dollar rallying through the roof and we're going into the best two months of seasonality and it tells me we'll probably go higher and the fundamentals don't interbah, the equity tuesday. this is what we've all said where the market has performed through a period, and i think we'll get a lot more news on this, but as much as i pointed out the relative lack of making a new high to the s&p, they're not folding and they're not caving and that's strong. >> the chevron -- quickly. mike wirth was talking about the potential for crude oil to trade north of $100. i understand he's the ceo of chevron. i get it, but the point is his thesis is right in term of

supply and demand imbalances and that doesn't help the equation either. >> our next guest warrans the investors, and he is now chief economist. great to see you >> what's the story about this environment? the fact that the usual relationships aren't really working out this time around >> part of it, melissa, and that probably explains why the recession hasn't happened yet and we had covid that shut down what was effectively a $40 million environment and it was gdp. we worked through those dislocations if you look at the global supply chains and for the most part they seem to be normal >> what's interesting to me, melissa, is the yield curve has continued an ongoing inversion and the fact the leading indicators continue to remain deeply negative with most of those series contributing to the down side and it seems that the narrative has developed and now

we've hit a soft landing and the point that i've been making to clients and investors is given the lags, we are still within that window and the timeframe whereby these indicators still could be very useful and one of the reasons we haven't had a recession is probably the fact that the government has been spending a tremendous amount of money and that won't persist indefinitely because interest rates are very high and as dan was saying there will be cracks in the consumer. >> so you think that 2024 we're going to start to see it, we'll start to see the economy get hit. >> i wouldn't be surprised if we're actually seeing it now i think back in '08 which was similar in the sense that when we went into '08 many economists thought there would be a recession. when baird got bought, the fe created a new program, and risk was -- everybody was in a risk mode back in the spring of '08

and we were in the midst of a recession. watch the unemployment rate. every time sinced second world war, when it's risen half a basis point, or half a percent there's been a recession >> joe, handicap for us the economy then and if you were a trader we would ask you for levels on the stock. how deep >> if we're talking about a shallow recession you can make the argument that it depends on some of the severity the cracks in the credit market are tough to read. tell me what you're staring at because you're the economist >> tim, i don't think -- look, to me there's a recession because the indicators that have worked are telling me there will be a recession how deep it will be, i don't know nobody knows it depends on what the policy response is when it happens. had the authorities and ben bernanke and paulson had done a bit better job and told how to

deal with lehman, we wouldn't have had the recession and maybe it would have been more mild in twbt 21. because recessions are typically not linear you get the logical breaks and the responses from the fed and the fiscal authorities is key and as you know, next year, you have a political election and it's safe to say it's going to be divisive. >> so, joe, when you look at recessions they're only told in hindsight. that's how you locate it so i'm of the belief that we could be in recession in december of 2022, but pull that forward. is that a shot that we're in recession right now and we've already troughed in earnings and we're bouncing from here >> no, and it's possible that we did have an inflationary recession in the first half of

'22 when it was negative for two quarters and the gross domestic income numbers are better and there is validity for that and the income numbers have been negative and it's possible that we're in recession, and steve, we've never had a period where the equity market would have discounted the recession that's hitting now a year in advance and the equity bottomed last october and now we're entering one and it's possible. history would say it's highly unlikely >> always great to get your thoughts thank you. >> great being with you you. >> joe lavorgna. steve, do you think we're in a recession now? >> i think that we've already seen an earnings trough. i think we've seen inflation peak that that would be less of of a headwind for corporations and i think they're going to get better and i think you can make the case that they've been in recession and the consumer cannot crack until the jobs

numbers crack and i'm not a buyer or a seller of student loan repayment becoming this magnificent headwind because the administration still said they're not giving up on this, so i don't think everyone's going to go back to actually paying the student loans nor do i think it will be enforced if they don't >> i think the household dynamics is that you really don't know when the consumer is going to break what we are seeing is there are a lot of places that are defensive and they've underperformed the s&p by 16% and some of this is the consumer that's not paying 10% to 20% for a can of coke. are you paying 10% to 20%? >> i don't drink soda, as you notice, we all drink water sugary drinks are not cool anymore. >> what if they're diet? >> even worse. as a matter of fact, if you listen to the -- who is that person in the surgeon general,

they will tell you if you'll drink soda you may as well drink the stuff with the saccharin >> what about tab? >> you drink the real tab. >> how did we get this conversation >> i like fresca >> how about a fresca? >> i digress coming up -- we're just going to go to break. keep an eye on apple shares gaining as analysts bite into the latest iphone offerings. after a rough couple of months will things turn up for the tech giant plus make sure to stretch for this next one. lulu and nike, this one is the best f fitor your portfolio? the one they're leaning into when "fast money" returns. back in two. your financial sto. ♪♪ we're not an airline, but our network connects global businesses across nearly 160 markets. ♪♪ we're not a startup, but our innovation labs use new technologies to help keep your information secure. ♪♪ we're not architects, but we help build

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>> welcome back to "fast money." it's apple picking season and apple is feeling festive saying demand is strong for the tech company's newest iphone 15s. shares seeing green today climbing nearly 1.7% should you bite into this name now? everybody is so geeked up, dan, as you would say. >> for the usbc port >> apparently, everyone wants one of these things. the wait times are long -- >> listen, we've been doing this a long time, okay?

literally the show started right around the iphone -- it did. okay we talk about the announcements and the lead-up to it. there's no such thing as super cycles they don't exist upgrade super cycles how many times have we talked about this and the narrative because there's a website that shows the lead times and they get pushed out and the fact that this stock has gained whatever the heck it did today makes absolutely no sense and granted it's been down and it's been down over the last couple of months for two forundamental reasons and expected growth of high-single digits and i see massive headwinds with china and massive headwinds toward manufacturing and access to demand in china, and i just don't see a stock that makes a lot of sense. >> the other thing we don't know is the supply level. how many phones is apple supplying, and manufacturing and therefore are these lead times true lead times or manufactured

lead times grasso, i know you got into apple. you're still in it, i assume are you disappointed with the performance? >> no, i'm not disappointed with the performance. to dan's point, markets overshoot in both directions, so they might overshoot to the upside based on a little data or little fundamentals, but they definitively overshot to the downside last week we're talking about a million phones, maybe, in china and not the 45 million phones and they factored in 45 million so you can't say that it overshoots just in one direction. it overshot to the downside and that's why it picked up shares and i think that's dissipating and the headwinds will dissipate and the china negativity will fall short, and i think the stock will rally much further than where it is now look at the price target on the street and they're all mostly $200 and you can ride it into

the mid-190s or 200. >> both cases, we had the prior all-time high from december of '21 and it was okay given the sell off the bear case is china spent time sending 103 warplanes and not only to taiwan airspace after "meet the press. this china-taiwan situation seemingly escalates and the more people we send over to negotiate with china the worse things seem to get god forbid something happen between china and taiwan, it forces apple's hand which won't be good for the stock. >> it forces our hand. >> uh-huh. >> there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. >> warrior pose engaged. analysts stretching into lululemon saying this brand could go all upward dog. so, should you namaste in this name plus, tesla on a tear this year. and money manager cathie wood is

making some moves in the name. she'll join us next to break down her latest investments and where she sees stocks heading next you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. we're back right after this. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. welcome back to "fast money. time for our call of the day hsbc taking position in lululemon, initiating the stock with a buy with a $500 price target that's almost 60 bucks and even with shares basically flat over the last three years hsbc saying it could hit its long-term targets as much as a year ahead of schedule and it is

down almost 2% basically, they said that they liked every other sports apparel retailer better than nike because they preferred adidas and puma over nike and they ended up initiating lulu with a buy. there's a lot of people that are concerned about sports apparel overall, but lulu, it's hard to push back on lulu in terms of the company with the leadership they have in the segment to me, i'm pushing back on the valuation, and i'm pushing out a new catalyst we know about international and we know china was up there at 61% year over year the numbers that they reported to q2 were fantastic numbers and look at the stock and it's come back all of the way back to where it was with the fantastic report and the upgrades that follow to me, this is truly a stock trailing 49 times around 33, 34 times with an earnings profile that if you look at it 32 to 34 almost doubles and the problem is not with what they're doing in terms of the brand and the same thing i'll make about nike.

this valuation and the environment and the discretionary where it is and i don't know how many pairs of those yoga pants that we need. by the way, the guy segment is cool and what not, but i mean, you know, i'm not buying. >> boxer briefs are tremendous you should look into it. they'll change your world? felt better? >> never felt better 405, to testimony's point. that's where they topped off and that was the high we saw back in november, i think, of last year and there's obviously technical reasons where we failed and it's not an indictment of the stock and the company and it's a valuation problem and close to 30 times and it's a technical problem in terms of where we'll stop and it will be an opportunity to buy the stock cheaper. >> we're talking with ark invest cathie wood, the bull selling shares this week and where she's putting her money. don't go anywhere. more "fast money." back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks with a big yawn and energy leaving the s&p while consumer discretionary lagged and macy's the dollar stores target and smucker all hovering

near 52-week lows near something that hasn't happened in a while and eli lilly for the fourth straight day and the longest losing streak since july elon musk denying the report that the company is in early talks to build an ev factory in saudi arabia and this comes a day after president erdogan invited him to build his next factory in that country. so what does the road look like for tesla? let's bring in cathie wood and tesla is her number one holding. thank you for being on fast. >> happy to be with you, melissa. thank you for inviting me. >> the traders at the desk were talking about tesla and your bear take for tesla is $1400 guy here said he'll take 1400 because that's still bullish >> what's in what assumptions are made about its business to get to that 1400 by '27 number? >> well, about a third of our valuation is associated with

electric vehicles, evs and scaling them and as you mentioned, turkey, a plant there and many countries do want a tesla plant because this is the new world, right so that's good this is all working out and then two-thirds of our valuation is around autonomous, and autonomous platforms and we think tesla is in the pole position here in the united states it has collected more data about our roads and actually other roads around the world than all of the other companies combined, and therefore it has more corner cases and probably will be the company that will get people from point a to point b as quickly and safely as possible so it's a winner take most market

so whether it's our base case and that just means autonomous perhaps takes a little longer to play out or the bull case, it happens much more quickly. >> so even if it takes longer to play out it's still 1400, and that sort of -- that seems extremely optimistic in terms of even the regulatory green lights that tesla would need for autonomy it seems the model where tesla owners would own their cars and then they would go out and earn them money during the day by driving people around and that also seems optimistic in terms of the uptick of that, cathie. for two-thirds of the valuation, do you feel there's risk even around the bear case at all with the two-thirds >> actually, the risks are going down because regulators are very data driven and what regulators have been experiencing especially in the transportation

sector is that the number of auto deaths in the united states have gone up -- has gone up in the past five to 10 years from 30,000 to 45,000 after decades of falling thanks to auto safety measures so the national highway and transportation safety board want to turn that trend back down why has it happened? a lot of it is because of texting and therefore a disproportionate number of young people are dying in auto accidents. so the data supports what tesla is doing 80% to 90% of all accidents on the roads are caused by human error. if you take the human being out of the equation and use, ai to

get people from point a to point b as quickly and safely as possible, i think the authorities and the regulators are going to be persuaded by the data in fact, they already have been in terms of the fatalities in tesla's cars they examine them and they say not tesla's fault for the most part and people driving in tesla cars are 40% plus safer with autopilot and fsd than any other cars >> so, cathie, tesla is a $150 billion company and next year they'll do $195 billion in revenue and your math suggests a $1 trillion company and what keep of company will be that, in other words, where will revenue be at that time? >> so it's not just revenue growth, and evs are taking share at an accelerated rate from

gas-powered cars and tesla is evolving factories elon said i'm a manufacturer of factories. faster than any other auto manufacturer, tech provider out there so we think that that side of the equation they've got down the key here is autonomous autonomous mem autonomous margin and you mentioned revenue, but auto margins and ev margins are in the 20% to 30% range this is gross margins. autonomous is a sass model, somewhere as a service model those margins alone are in the 80% range. so it's not just revenues. it is margins that are going to deliver upside surprises so to get to -- we have tesla,

yes, going to $5 trillion in market cap and many people when we first put this forecast out they say that's crazy and it's impossible, but then apple got to 3 trillion and now everyone is saying, wow winner take most or companies that are doing something highly differentiated it willy can get to those kinds of market caps. so our rev enue growth is in th 50%+ range over the next five to ten years per year as evs take over the market from gas-powered vehicles >> hey, cathie it's tim that for joining us. you're talking five to ten years and on some level an extraordinarily long time to be looking out and modeling back, but this is part of how you invest and if i look at the innovation fund, there's no question that you were investing for the long term and i guess that's my question

how do you think about short term tactical versus long-term being invested and for investors who look at performance and you've had good years and difficult years and it's 1.2% on average and the stories you're talking about are long-term, growth, excite bing stories. >> first, let me put in context. first is that we'll deliver a 15% compound annual rate of return over the next five years. why did that not happen over the last five years? the biggest reason is an increase in interest rates, 23fold over not much more than one years' time. ne never seen that in history, actually, and that interest rate increase was very difficult for any long duration strategy,

including long-term bond strategies and bonds had their worst year in 2022 since the 1700s. bonds are usually supposed to prote protect investors, but when interest rates went up 23fold and this did not even happen during chairman volcker and this is 22, 23-fold and it would be a killer for our strategy. we think they've overdone it and we do think the next big set of moves during the next -- during the next year, i would say, are going to be down and if the fear of interest rates are going up and interest rates actually going up hurt our strategy that badly then i would expect the opposite to happen the other way around so that -- so now your question about how do we think about short term

disruptive innovation is inherently controversial you've got the old guard take the auto industry when we first started modeling tesla and when we started ark in 2014 and we were putting out our forecast, everyone dismissed them electric vehicles weren't going to be a reality in any meaningful sense for the next ten to 15 years. that was wrong and we were right on that, but because it is so controversial we get great trading opportunities, and so you will see us buy tesla is sitting on it, it will remain our largest position because the autonomous taxi platform is the biggest opportunity from my point of view, delivering eight to 10 trillion in basically

nothing now and then on the other side when everyone gets really excite about the possibilities, we know there's going to be another, and we will table profits and we'll trade around and yes, we do have a short-term trading strategy around the controversy that our innovation platforms cause. >> cathie, always great to see you. we hope you'll come back >> thank you thank you so much. >> ark invest p you can hear more of kralthie wood the at the financial adviser summit and scan the cr code and go to cnbcevents.com/fa. let's trade this dan? >> it's interesting. as automotive margins have come down to 25.5% last year to 18 or so and probably on the way down there are more price cuts that are coming and the goalposts have shifted and we talked the note about the supercop purt and

about dojo and robots and he keeps getting more sci-fi. again, this is an auto company that trades with an $850 billion market cap that doesn't make a lot of sense with literally declining market share and declining margins, but when she talks about the opportunity, it's based on autonomy elon's been talking about level four autonomy. we were supposed to have it, by his predictions a few years ago. they don't use it. they don't use lidar when you talk about economy, and some technology that the regulators feel comfortable about. i don't know that they'll feel comfortable with something that has the lidar cameras on them.

in this is part of the 1-- >> coming up, options are traders. we'll hit the options pits for e xtthne move. that trade is next "fast money" is back in two.

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money. we are still awaiting details for the instacart ipo pricing and let's go to leslie picker to see where we stand at this point. mel, final pricing decisions still under way for instacart's ipo. i am told they could come within the next 45 minutes or so. it's been a lodge road for the grocery delivery service which filed an s1 confidentially six months ago when the market took a turn amid higher interest rates, instacart ultimately put its deal on ice and ultimately instacart set terms that a quarter of the valuation it received in a private round two years ago. investors feeling like they got a good deal and put orders in and demand was strong enough that instacart raised its price range by $2 a share and that means it will likely price at the high end of the new range or above, but those things can take some tdeliberations and that's

what's going on right now. so the majority of the offering has been claimed by cornerstone investors including with tcb sequoia and valiant. $262 million for institutional and the ipo price and less than 3% on a fully diluted basis. so we'll see if the structure of the ipo, and you have a down round and significant cornerstone investor component and a profitable company and a single class of shares, maybe that makes that ipo palatable in a still-uncertain environment, but we'll see, melissa >> leslie picker arms shares falling 4.5% after analysts in bernstein slapped a 46 price target on the stock and that's down from today's close options contracts started trading today. with more on what they are saying let's get to mike khouw >> we talked about the maultipls

and it was the busiest single-stock option and it was more than two to one most of the activity october puts trading over len,000 contracts and the 52.5 and the 55 straight puts were also very active so we're looking at some volatility for the next month or two. >> mike, thanks. mike khouw. >> it's roughly $68 and a trader's paradise. if you look at the volatility, melissa, up and down and it's obviously a declining trend and i don't think you should necessarily invest in these names, but this really creates alpha for a trader to really build around those edges i plan on trading instacart tomorrow, as well. i expect that to be very volatile. >> for more markets action tune into the show at 5:30 eastern time summer's over, but don't put the shorts away.

they'll join us next with a handful of timely shorts [ laughter ] not literally, obviously here's a sneak peek of the cramer cam and he chats with soffer katz at the top of the hour on "fast money. we're back in two. the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. every day, businesses everywhere are asking: learn your way. not theirs. is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring

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welcome back to "fast money. instead of our game of so bad it's good, we look at names gearing up for a breakout. the chart master has a couple of stocks and look at the short side, with carter wirth. carter, who are you looking at >> you bet i thought i might single out two names that are great winners heretofore great winners that have all of the elements of rolling over and slippage is the word that comes to mind. again, massive outperformer since the covid low triples or more and now showing all of the hallmarks of distribution and behind correlation and relative strength, et cetera. let's look at the first of two this is ulta, a name known to

all. a retailer and also considered a growth stock and often considered by many, quite expensive and you can see here, of course, this is a $20 billion company that basically went from 50 to 500 a share coming off the covid low, but day to day, this action again has all of the hallmarks and characterize as the bullish to bearish reversal and heretofore strong and now starting to roll by con ttradiction, look at the under the radar i.t. services, but again, 10 billion market cap and here, too, we have something that was basically trading $40 plus or minus the covid low and made it up to 100 and also breaking trend and also showing the characteristics of distribution which is to say a stock that acts poorly day to day in terms of relative performance to the market and in

terms of absolute performance having broken trend. i think if you're long either of these you would take measures to trim or reduce the right calls, if not just come out altogether. for those that do engage in short selling, these are two candidates >> carter, thanks. carter worth of worth charting what do you think of these shorts >> valuation will get in the way of the number of the stocks. when valuation didn't matter this was lower left upper right and valuations are a concern and now you've seen it struggling and i'm with him, and the fact that he can use heretofore correctly, and it's almost a great time >> heretofore, trumps lost >> i think so, too and at ulta, you have a case that was in the sweet spot coming out of covid and i think you've gotten to a place where it is, and i think if you look at the pricing normalization and this is something that's started

to come back, and i think you look at diskrcretionary and we spent time talking tonight about the consumer, and i think we've seen a peak. >> i think whilest is trumpeded by heretofore. >> no, he did. >> i give carter props he's the mount rushmore. >> of technicians. >> of everything. >> no one tells the story like carter he slows it down for you and he gives it to you to the pen and he kind of delivers. >> up next, final trade. ens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received. at&t business.

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final trade is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed investors choose interactive brokers ♪ ♪ final trade time steve grasso >> cathie wood said tesla is a winner take most and that leaves an awful lot for rivian to take and it's been riding the 50-day higher and gets to 30 some time soon. >> tim >> it's been defensive in this environment and jdx is the way to get gold.

gdx. >> i would be a seller too >> it's been a busy week, mel. good thing i'll have your steady hand on the rudder and the till the entire week. >> i'm leaving town. >> what? >> next week on assignment, folks. >> thank for watching "fast money." my mission is imple. to make you money. to level the playing field for all investors. i promise o help you. mad money starts now. >> hey, i am kramer. i am here to educate and teach you. covi