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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  September 19, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. wall street focused on the federal reserve. also, uaw sets a new deadline for detroit's big three threatening to expand the walkouts. ipo rush showing no signs of cooling off as investors brace for the instacart debut. coming down to the wire. lawmakers have less than ten days to avoid a government shutdown we have a live report from d.c. ahead. later in the show, pay to
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post elon musk lays out the vision for the platform formerly known as twitter it is tuesday, september 19th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. we kickoff the day with the u.s. stock futures. s&p and nasdaq with the third positive session in the last four we see green across the board. dow opening up 20 points higher. the s&p and nasdaq is opening higher we are checking the bond market. the 10-year treasury is at 4.31. also foreiimportant to note thae 2-year treasury at 4.5 we are watching the energy market wti is the benchmark at $92.76
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up 1.5%. brent crude at $95.12. natural gas is muted up .25%. time for the check of the top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> frank, good morning the ipo rush set to continue today with instacart pricing the nasdaq offering at $30 a share the top end of the range the deal values the company at $10 billion. that's a massive haircut from the $39 billion valuation in 2021 instacart is profitable generating $114 million in net income last quarter. that is up from $8 million a year ago don't miss instacart's ceo live here on cnbc later today the united auto workers union will strike at additional
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ford, gm and stellantis plants if serious progress is not made by friday. shawn fain posting this message on x late yesterday. >> we're not waiting around and we're not messing around so noon on friday, september 22nd, is a new deadline. either the big three get down to business and work with us to make progress and negotiations or more locals will be called on to stand up and go out on strike >> the expanded strikes would expand the walkouts beyond the 13,000 workers currently and come one week since talks officially brokedown no comment from ford or stellantis on the new deadline gm says it continues to bargain in good faith. don't miss a first on cnbc conversation with stellantis coo coming up at 7:40 a.m.
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and elon musk says x, his platform formerly known as twitter, has 550 million users speaking during a live chat with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, musk said the social media platform is to a subscription model >> okay. silvana, let's talk about this later. i don't want to pay to post. we'll discuss. silvana, thank you see you later on. turning attention back to the top story. the fed starts the two-day policy meeting today with the economic forecast set for tomorrow afternoon jay powell and fmoc members are widely expected to keep rates on hold the markets have been bumpy since the july meeting when they hiked a .25% the s&p is down 2.5% since the
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july meeting let's talk about this vince larusso. vince, you are here in the house. >> great to be here. >> let's talk about this $1.6 billion in assets under management what are you telling clients about positioning and all allocations ahead of the fed decision >> we are active managers. we have been managing money for our clients. we have a team of analysts that look for opportunities we see all of the cross currents in the markets it is self serving to say that we have been doing that for 20 years. when you think of the uaw and the fed today and thinking about the dual mandate with lowering inflation and keeping labor in check. we are doing within the capital
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markets is seeing the consumer slowing down excess savings are depleted. interest rates will have an impact on delinquencies. we are finding sectors and themes within the capital markets to tell clients to be active >> i don't want to just talk about the magnificent seven, but i want to talk about tech. rates are elevated highest since 2007 is what we are seeing this month rate pressure or september or combination? >> it sis combination if you look at the magnificent seven, the s&p is where it was two caryears ago. we have the selloff. we get caught up in the bigs moves higher and lower in the index in the individual securities this is a maturing economy in
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the u.s. we don't having significant growth if there is a gravitation, that is not surprising. the aggregate index is not surprising >> listen. you don't sound like you have a lot of conviction in the market. i want to show the audience the vix. it has been subdued this year despite higher oil prices and higher rates we had the u.s. credit rating downgraded still, right now, the vix is at 14 a low vix is a sign that stocks are in a bull market do you agree despite all of the hand wringing, we are in a great time for equities >> it doesn't teal like a bull market to me i think the mega cap influence
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of the seven stocks is profound. if you look at the rolling bear market thesis, it is playing out. the pullback of the consumer and the data points with the companies with the credit dependent purchases which is slowing down the vix is low and the volatility is low. that may be a function of the fed getting to a place where we are more or less calibrating the reserve rate we raised 550 bps. will they hold or be dovish or hawkish? we know where the fed needs to be that is part of the reason why the vix is low. >> vince, thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. coming up, a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know spending pulse. chief u.s. economist michelle
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meyer is coming up. and how close are the lawmakers to a deal? we have a live report from d.c. coming up. later in the show, more on the instacart nasdaq ipo and our veor guest has the real draw for insts. we have a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns with comcast business... it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.
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welcome back to "worldwide
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exchange." futures are higher dow opening up 20 points higher. s&p and nasdaq a few basis points higher from being flat. time to look at europe as its trading day is getting under way. we have joumanna bercetche with more on the early action from the london newsroom. good morning, frank. let's start with the asian markets. the nikkei is back for trading down .90% we are seeing the likes of tokyo electric fall to the bottom of the index. hang seng is seeing st stabil stabilization. up .40%. shanghai is basically flat you see here in the german index, we see some trading in the green.
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ftse 100 is up 8 basis points. ocado posted better than expected results kingfisher posting negative results. a posplit picture there. dax is under selling pressure. cac 40 is up .10%. we have been watching the latest forecasts from the bank of france they downgraded the forecast for 2024 and 2025. we spoke yesterday about this and this is the bank we have been watching after the capital markets day stock which dropped 10%. slightly more positive picture for the fed meeting on wednesday. we have the bank of england on thursday as well >> joumanna, thank you joumanna bercetche live in the london newsroom. turning back to stateside. we are ten weeks away from black friday and the holiday shopping season
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despite interest rates at a 22-year high, the economy is resilient. first here on "worldwide exchange," is mastercard sales forecasts. forecast to increase 3.7% thanks for surging electronics and experiences. jo joining me for a deeper dive here on cnbc is michelle meyer at mastercard. >> good morning, frank. >> michelle, let me know if this is a coincidence holiday sales 3.7% that is the same as the cpi. how much of the increase is inflation and how much of it is a true increase in consumer spend? >> that's a good observation, frank. i think you are right. it is the same as cpi. we are looking at a different measure of spend than what you would see in overall cpi you want to look at each
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categories and compare the spending by category to inflation by category. the second point is you are right with nominal spending. part of the gain in spend is the change in prices that is always the phenomenon. i would argue this is less of a factor if you think of the last two years, inflation was the story and how consumers would be able to navigate the high inflation environment and how they make the dollars work more. now we are seeing more price discounting. we are seeing categoriesdecli >> speaking of categories, we say the consumer is stretched and shifting from goods to experiences. electronics is expected to see a 6% sjump what is the catalyst for the
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surge? >> it has been a few years since the surge post pandemic. we know how quickly contechnoloy changes. new gadgets are introduced maybe we are starting the new replacement cycle. we are not saying this is across the board and you are buying all new appliances for the house some large durable goods with the saturation for many of the categories, it seems like it is appealing and that is what we see in the trends >> we are talking about the instacart ipo. the core business is grocery delivery not asking about the ipo the grocery delivery is expected to increase 3.9% this holiday season what does that tell us about the economy and consumer to see 4% increase in grocery spend year over year? >> i think it is important to look at food spending wholly one thing that is has been clear
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this season throughout the year is consumers have been really excited about going back to restaurants. it is part of the whole move toward experience based spending i do think that will be more of the trend into the holiday season when people make the decision of how they want to consume food, i think there is a priority of going out to restaurants. for grocery stores we are returning to something that is more resembling trend at the spend at grocery stores. we are seeing a slowdown in inflation in grocery stores. some categories of eggs or dairy products is returning back to the trend-like growth for prices when consumers walk into the grocery store, they have more choice they are not faced with as much price shock. they are thinking of consuming
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at home or restaurants >> michelle meyer, mastercard forecasting holiday sales increase 3.7%. first on cnbc report great to have you here as always thank you. >> thank you, frank. coming up on "worldwide exchange," private equity scores another music catalog and no actors and no writers, no problem for "dancing with the stars. we have the trending stories coming up when we return here on "worldwide exchange. stay with us
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we have a market flash rocket labs is down at the open. it issued an anomaly outside of australia this morning with the satellite. rocket labs working with agencies as it investigates the failure of the rocket which successfully delivered 171 satellites in orbit across 37 missions shares of rocket lab down 15% right now. turning to capitol hill where u.s. lawmakers have less than ten days to pass a stop gap funding measure to avert a shutdown this burden lies on the house speaker kevin mccarthy
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emily wilkins has more on what is at stake. >> reporter: good morning, frank. we are two weeks away from the government shutdown. there is still no clear path on how congress is going to avert it a plan backed by speaker mccarthy is looking in trouble with the growing number of republicans opposing the package. the bill pares funding the government to october 31st with immigration measures that includes building the wall and limiting asylum into the u.s. the republican measure would cut 8% from domestic programs. the bill looks doomed with a dozen members opposing the bill and some saying it doesn't contain enough things the republicans want others saying that congress needs to pass a full funding bill rather than a short-term one. mccarthy and other lawmakers
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said they believe they can get enough votes for the stop gap measure by thursday. all they have to do is educate members on what is in the bill mccarthy told the members he was invoking the ultimate threat taking away the lawmakers weekend. >> i told all congress you will not go home. we will continue to work through this i'm not giving up on the american people. things are tough sometimes they are worth it. this country is worth it >> reporter: if mccarthy pulls off and gets all republicans on board, there is no chance the bill passes in the senate as is and that makes the threat of the shutdown more likely frank, there is another option on the table bipartisan group of republicans and democrats are discussing a potential bipartisan solution if this one falls short it might be too little too late. >> you sound ominous, emily. a lot of political wrangling in
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d.c. i want to ask you about something else are you hearing anything from the credit rating agencies >> reporter: it did come as a shock to the market with the last downgrade, but fitch said they were pointing to debates like this one. the government needs to do certain things the one big task the government has is keeping the lights on in congress we see year after year with them struggling to do it and buying more time. having a lot of uncertainty. frank, it is too early to say what is going to happen with the ratings, but this is one of the reasons that the u.s. government got downgraded this summer >> it sounds like another downgrade is a risk. we hope this gets worked out emily, thank you. straight ahead on "worldwide exchange," the one thing morgan
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stanley's ellen zentner is telling her clients now. if you haven't already, follow our podcast check us out on apple or spotify or other podcast apps. "worldwide exchange" is back after this ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines.
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it is 5:30 a.m. here in the new york city area more ahead here on "worldwide exchange." here is what's on deck, the
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federal reserve set to kickoff the policy meeting with the set of tricks jay powell and company may have up their sleeves this year. and the ipo rush rolls on with instacart with the public offering at the top of the pricing range. and a.r.m. holdings losing the shine as the post-pull back continues. it is tuesday, september 19th, 2023 you are watch wiing "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's start the half hour check on the u.s. stock futures. seeing movement to the upside for the dow. looking like it would open 45 points higher. earlier it was 20 points heighe. nasdaq also moving to the upside we want to check on the bond market of the kickoff of the fed
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policy meeting the 10-year treasury at 4.31 pretty much the highest level since 2007 important to note the 2-year treasury is an above 5% at 5 5.059% and oil is the u.s. benchmark up 1.25%. $92.62 a barrel. brent crude is similar up .75% at $95.08. we are hearing from the oced with the headlines it sees limited scope for policy rate reductions for advanced economies next year. it is cutting chinese growth forecast to 5.1% this year from 5.4% and 4.6% in 2024 from 5.1%.
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oecb stating the german economy will go into contraction this year and u.s. should end with 2.2% growth. that is up from 1.6% turning back to the top story. the federal reserve kicking off the policy meeting today with the decision due out at 2:00 p.m. tomorrow. investors pricing in 100% chance the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged the real keying according to many is chairman powell's language on inflation and employment and what could happen in the november meeting. joining me is ellen zentener >> good morning. >> everybody sees a 100% chance of a pause assuming that happens, what are you looking at with the fed meeting? >> i think i'm looking for ninhint in the statement that if they hold rates steady, policy will
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get restrictive over time. there is a word in the statement additional judging what additional policy tightening might be needed take out the word additional and say what policy tightening may be needed, that sis a step tin that direction how many dots come down? is it lower, but not quite a full 25 basis points just the direction matters i think at the end of the day, when we go into the q&a, i think he will struggle to keep a hawkish tone as they keep the door open to hike if needed. >> you are focusing on the dot plots. there are so many things going on that the fed is passiying attention to with the uaw negotiations and the rise in oil prices and the potential for the u.s. credit rating to be downgraded are the dot plots tomorrow
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reflect the long-term view which is subject to change >> i think focus on 2023 and what happens with those forecast changes. i really think that is most important here the fed will have to almost double its growth forecast so even though they need to greatly bring down inflation forecast because inflation is coming in the well lower than expectation and some members may be hesitant because growth will would be that strong then you will be skeptical that the pace of the deceleration and inflation will continue. i think that will be a struggle for them as they balance that. you mentioned energy that is a blessing for the fed when energy prices are rising, it acts as a tax on households you get a drag on real income and consumption. for a fed which has been trying to slow the economy more with
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the frustrating resilient consumer, that could be a refreshing surprise. >> you are looking at the july statement and there is one part you are focused on the statement which says tighter credit conditions for houses are lightly to weigh on the economic condition. the committee remains highly attentive to inflation risk. you say removing the word highly from that sentence, that one omission could have a big market impact please explain >> the word highly or closely are things that are heightened alert for the fed. when they get comfortable for something, they take those words out. i'm focused on do they remove the word highly. also in the statement, do they not just say inflation is el the str -- elevated, but slowed and elevated do they not just say robust, but
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job gains have slowed, but remain robust. these are tiny tweaks that should not be taken lightly, but baby steps to stop hiking the cycle. >> you are actually answering part of the question i was going to ask are you expecting cuts next year i'm sure your clients are asking about the expectations if we see cuts, how many and when do they start >> we do think we will see four rate cuts next year. they will start in march at a quarterly pace that is because the fed will ensure inflation continues to fall they can't let up how restrictive they are as inflation is falling, you maintain the same level of restrictiveness if you are following that with the policy rate that is the environment we think will be in next year we are earlily ey on the street
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calling for that we think the fed will have to keep pressure on the economy here to get to slow enough no recession that would wbe a different story wher aggreaggr aggressively next year. >> thank you so much for being here for a check of the top corporate stories, we have silvana henao with more. >> frank, good morning a.r.m.'s post-ipo retreat looks to continue today after shedding 4.5% in yesterday's ession according to reuters, roughly 74,000 arm options contracts were traded yesterday. the first day options were available for the stock. more than 80% were set to expir on october 20th with much of the volume in puts the union representing hollywo hollywood writers will resume talks on wednesday that announcement comes on the
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139th day of the strike which began in may the union representing actors did not say when it will return to the table with the studios. and shares of carrier global getting a pop ahead of the open on reports of splitting off a division the company could list the commercial fire unit as a stand alone company. the potential moves comes as carrier looks to focus on the energy and climate business. >> silvana, thank you very much. i appreciate it. turning attention now to one of the big stories of today. instacart trading on the nasdaq under the ticker k-a-r-t after pricing at $30 a share still, the valuation coming in at a discount from the 2021 peak of $39 billion the instacart marking the first vc
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backed company to make a public debut since december of 2021 it comes as the ipo market is showing signs of life after the successful a.r.m. holdings debut. let's get the latest from sarah kuentz and stacey widlitz. ladies, great to have you here. >> good to see you sdp. >> sarah, i will start with you. instacart is a combination of two businesses grocery and last-mile delivery why is this attractive >> any port of the storm and people are happy to see that window instacart is a company to see backed by the biggest names in vc it is a space if you remember
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web van which is hard to make a profit it has been the betting of startups for deck ades now there has been a huge haircut like you said, but they are pricing at the top of the range. they are profitable. it seems this really could be the canary in the coal mine saying maybe we're back. >> stacy, over to you. now we are closer to a $10 billion valuation. is this a deal at the valuation at this price? >> frank, don't forget, this is not just a grocery delivery company, but it is a huge business with ads and software it is an interesting time for this to go public. if you think about the grocery m business, what is driving the business inn flags.
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most of the dpr-- inflation most of the inflation we have seen is stretched through to the consumer now inflation is coming down it will be tougher to grow sales. this is a company that takes a fee off the price of the basket. it is an interesting time. the other thing is we are hearing from all of the retailers and kroger suggested that the business is getting more promotional here. it will be tough to grow the top line in general in grocery going forward. >> stacey, you are hitting on the advertising business and this is a data play. can you expand on that a lot of investors are excited about the ad business and this is what makes it a tech company. >> you know, it is the ad business and software which is one-third here we have seen walmart push into the business why? it is a high-margin business compared to grocery which is
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thin margins that is the opportunity here also for cart, they are doing other things with the a.i. in stores so you don't have to scan your items they are doing in-store capabilities there are other plays on this, clearly. the base business of grocery is headed for a down doturn on theo line. >> sarah, shares of the a.r.m. ipo are down this morning. also klaviyo. >> you know, instacart is profitable, there is some profit there. these are all different companies. the thing that is different from last year is they are all tech companies. instacart delivers groceries, but it is a atek com-- a tech
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company. they are both in the business of helping you buy things klaviyo's biggest customer is shopify. to some extent, klaviyo and i instacart is testing the consumer if they are doing well, that means the consumer is in a good place. >> sarah and stacey, thank you don't miss the interview with instacart ceo. a first on cnbc ebs i you don't want to miss it. coming up on "worldwide exchange," we have the top trending stories
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katy perry selling her songs to litmus music this follows similar moves from bruce springsteen in recent years. no reported price tag on the deal. the show must go on. "dancing with the stars" will promote next week despite back l lash from the hollywood strike it will work to stay in compliance with the rules of the strike it is not just crude oil prices, but olive oil prices are spiking. surging by 130% gloacross the globe. more "worldwide exchange" coming up in a moment
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other systemic challenges are the cause. shares are down 1.75% in pre-market we have goldman sachs downgrading lazard goldman saying lazard near-term earnings will face pressure with the longer path to improvement shares down 1.5% this morning. time for the global briefing we begin with ubs telling regulators in four countries there's been a slow signing off of the takeover of credit s suisse four drawing out granting regulatory approvals businesses are concerned about china's data logs. businesses are challenged by what they call a lack of clarity and long process they have to undergo with data to do business
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in china shares of nio falling in the u.s. and hong kong after announced plans of $1 billion of senior notes it will use the offering to reduce debt. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word every investor needs to know today and why your next guest is the latest to get on the bandwagon for the beaten up energy stock we will reveal the mystery chart coming up. and if you miss us, check us out on spotify or other podcast apps. and before we head to break, we are celebrating the hispanic heritage month here is selena gomez >> i'm proud to be hispanic latina what i represent for women out
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the wex wrap up we start with instacart set to trade today after the offering was listed at $30 a share. the top end of the expected
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range. t don't miss instacart's ceo live on cnbc for a cnbc exclusive interview. looking at the top stories uaw will strike at ford and gm and stellantis if serious prob progress is not made by friday at noon. that would expand the current walkout by 13,000 workers. don't miss the interview with stellantis coo mark stewart on "squawk box. and operating in china following to record lows according to a survey. the american chamber of commerce says outlook has fallen 52%. and shares of rocket labs has an anomaly this morning resulting in a total lost of the
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satellite this morning shares down 20%. a judge rejecting the starbucks bid over the lawsuit over lacking a key ingredient. fruit. and microsoft apparently planning to refresh the xbox ahead of the season next year. also, here is what to watch. the federal reserve kicking off the two-day policy meeting on the data front we are watching for auto zone's results in the next hour and ipo front with instacart shares trading on the nasdaq and klaviyo will be priced later today.
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for more on the trading day ahead, let's bring in tiffany mcghee good morning great to have you here. >> good morning, frank >> so, nearly a 100% chance of a pause is priced in by traders right now. assuming that happens, what does it mean for the markets between now and then are you telling your clients to sit or are people making moves >> listen, the set is driving market moves, especially from now to the end of the year what we're telling clients is a few things our clients are long-term investors and foundations and endowments we are really big on portfolio positioning. we are really talking to the about diversifying their portfolio and long-term growth. >> as you look for that, i want to get a sense of what you are thinking about
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give us your wex word of the day. >> my wex word with of the day is long game still one word getting back to the idea that what we do is look for the growth opportunities foundations and endowments with long-term timelines. if you are looking for retirement, it is longer term so you can afford to invest in an an endowment style that typically comes with a premium. long game. >> as you look at the long game, we are looking at the 10-year treasury with the highest level since 2007 back above 4.3%. tiffany, sorry about that.
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are you worried about rate pressure with the 10-year treasury >> so, i wouldn't use the term worried. of course, we are watching rates and we are watching the fed. you know, the best defense for things like that is planning again, what we're doing with client portfolios is diversifying and looking for the main diversifiers. that really comes into play when we talk about potential rate pressure we have a couple of options. liquid alternatives are things like managed futures or helpdge funds or liquid form anybody has access to these. you are able to hedge against things like rates. >> okay. i want to get to one of your picks. next era energy. give us a sense why you think this is a great play for today ahead of the fed decision.
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>> you know, we're really playing the long game. long-term growth opportunities and infrastructure this is the clean energy play. we have stable cash flow and low correlation to stocks and bonds. it is a defensive stock, right we like the huge opportunity with cloud adoption and data centers. they are building these data centers which require a lot of energy what they're doing because they all made commitments with 100% of clean energy which is a long-term purchase power agreement. a long-term play. >> tiffany, great to see you thank you for being here i appreciate the time. look ing at futures across the board. we will leave it there "squawk box" is coming
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good morning new deadline in the uaw strike the president of the uaw shawn fain says more workers will strike if there is no substantial progress made by noon on friday it's instacart ipo day the grocery delivery company priced at the high end of the range. the fed kicking off the two-day policy meeting we will tell you what you might be able to expect. how the markets could possibly react.
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it's tuesday, september 19th, 2023 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin let's see how things are shaping up with the u.s. equities. green arrows across the board. yesterday, all three of the major averages closed up by a couple of points in each case. dow futures this morning indicated up 36. s&p futures up by 6. nasdaq up by 25. quickly, treasury yields yesterday. you had the 2-year treasury above 5% it is still there. 10-year treasury is above 4.3% as

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