tv Power Lunch CNBC September 19, 2023 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
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tohange its entire location in pursuit of sunlight (♪ ♪) where could reinvention take your business? accenture. let there be change. good afternoon, everybody. counting down the fed decision in 24 hours. on this very program. the consensus is that there is no change in the interest rates that will happen. what the feds is is more important. equally so as to what it does. joined by dennis lockhart in a couple of minutes.
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how much can tesla benefit from a prolonged strike? which under the radar company could cash in on the self driving ambitions? >> let's get a check on the markets. well-off session lows where we were down 300 points. down 17 3/2 of a point. down a third of a percent. similar modest declines. the big ipo of the day, instacart. if you got in at the open, five dollars below that price right now. 37 and change. we will watch this year to see if we will move back to that open price by the close. down as the ceo of square steps down. still chairman of the company will step up for it. down 20% this year and 2.5%
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today. downgrading the stock on concerns about its business in china. cutting the price target to 107. down 4.2%. starting with the fed, away from the big decision on rates tomorrow. expected to hold them steady over 5%. ambassadors will be looking for signals on future moves. what he is expecting. joined by the former president from the atlanta fed. welcome. what is the significance of tomorrow. it will be a pause. >> i agree. it is a skip, it is not the ultimate pause. there could be another great increase in november or december at the meeting. the committee will be weighing the question of if they are reliably able to get to 2%. if the feeling is that the
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question is not clear, in all likelihood, we will probably see some indication of nother gray rise being possible. the rhetoric will be in some respects inconclusive. not signaling a strong direction. >> do you look at interest rates at these levels and scratch her head a little bit? we are near the 15 year closing highs. in germany where there is a recession, their yields are at the highest level since 2011 or so. what is going on your? >> the long-term market that the fed does not control, just the action and prices. it is to some extent taking on board the soft landing idea. we will get through this.
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rates can and should normalize. we are going through a process now, normalization, it is still a burden. the longer-term rates have moved out. that reflects the view of the future. >> a lot of people come off that word of the benign future, they will reduce interest rates in 2024. that by now, they would be reducing interest rates. let's focus on 2024. that by this time next year they will pivot to lower interest rates? do you expect them to stay higher for longer to make sure that inflation is on course? >> two things that you might take us contradictory. i expect that they will stay higher for longer and many of
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the prognosticators believe that by the middle of the year they will hold the interest rates for a good part of a year. having said, some of the economic projections will show a decline in interest rates by year-end. the transition will occur by year-end. who knows. trying to predict the future. the data involved. it is a tough thing to pull off. >> i'm thinking about core inflation. 3.9%. tracking 2.4%. which it does not look like it
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will. are they going to hike again? >> there have been some mixed signals. because of energy prices and such. i think with the core inflation basis, the narrative is playing out. it is going in the right direction. i'm not totally convinced that we are on a path for the 2% objectives. there are adverse developments that can occur before that with the direction that inflation is going. they will take the risk management attitude and they will be cautious and careful
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>> the focus on core inflation. excluding the things that are most central to the price increases that i feel. energy and food. can you explain to me why core inflation is a better measure to look at than the inflation number that includes those two items? >> trying to discern the underlying rate of inflation. thinking of ocean currents that are below the surface. the headline numbers are more at the surface. energy will fluctuate from month to month. they do not tell you about the longer-term trends. >> they are real. i feel them. >> there is an element that you
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are pointing to that i think is important. it is artificial just to carve out first quarter energy prices and food prices. energy prices play through all other products. every product that has to be transported to margate has energy in it. energy in the production of all of these products. it is an artificial take. with the committee and the fed tries to do, to understand what is fundamental in terms of inflation and then act on that. >> food and energy can be supplied driven. the fed responds to moving higher which is a tax on the consumer. a double tax on the consumer. trying to figure out what to do with inflation depending on the direction of the economy.
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higher energy and food prices for other reasons, they respond by tightening and that is a double whammy. >> in the discussion in the committee room, there is a comment on factors to look through true try and understand which way the wind is blowing in a longer-term sense. those idiosyncrasies which are common in data month-to-month, they will have to try and figure out how to treat. to look through them in many cases. >> well the housing market, everything is at some point. come on, it cannot be that way all at the same time.
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thank you for joining us on the eve of this decision. do not miss the special coverage of the fed coverage tomorrow. kicking off at 1:00 p.m. eastern. we'll have the press conference here on power lunch. as we get ready for the fed decision tomorrow. the 10 year yield at the highest amount since 2007. >> yes. all treasury yields are on case to extend the high yield closes for this cycle. if you look at the one chart enter day. 46 today. if they were to close at those levels, they would take out the high yield closes. it is a close one. if you look at the chart, it is 508. that is close to where they are
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at. 4:30 for tens. that is where they are at as well. does this mean anything to anyone? tyler is right. not all maturities do. the fact of the matter is that interest rates are trying to normalize on their own. the fed wants to normalize rates. considering how big the balance sheet still is. they are playing interest on reserves. keeping them from going out into the world and pushing rates higher. how you slice it and how you look at it. there was a point in time when the energy price was giving you a great glance into the future on inflation. tyler, back to you. >> thank you as always. disney has the biggest drag on the dow this hour.
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trying to double its investment in parks and cruises. hi, julia. >> hi, tyler. this tenure plan is doubling down on the parks and events business. significant room for further expansion on land and sea. 1000 acres of land. seven new disney lands. welcoming 100 million guests annually, an additional addressable market with people who have a high disney affinity. down today on the news of the higher spending. during the presentation earlier today. mindful of the underpinning of the company. in terms of the bottom line, the need to invest wisely so we are increasing returns on
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investment capital and the need to maintain the balance sheet. the company is able to absorb those costs and continue to grow. looking expansively on value and capital given to the shareholders. >> he said if he looked across what disney was doing, mostly on the theme parks and thirdly on streaming, the shares are down today, you have to wonder, if he is investing there on the long term, questioning if disney would break itself into different companies with those particular focus is. >> they have been talking about this, what does the slimmed- down disney look like? selling the tv networks including abc, what is left? what are the core pieces of disney? what he has done so skillfully. going back to ceo. with this idea of creating and
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building up these brands that they could exploit all across of disney's platforms. the film studio, the theme parks, disney plus is another direct to consumer avenue. one thing interesting about this announcement, they have the land to keep expanding. consumer demand. the disney affinity as they said, the ability to take some of these story lines they have not brought to the parks before and be able to bring them to the parks. that is about the core disney ip. the tv networks, it is not about the core ip. doubling down on what is most essentially disney and thinking about what might not fit in with that anymore. >> thank you very much. following disney that we follow
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every day. we will talk with the ceo of brunswick and what he is saying about the possibility of recession. a quick power check. one of the best performers in the s&p 500. despite the ceo having to push down for having personal relationships with colleagues that he did not expose. intel ceo coming up on the closing bell over time. you do not want to miss that at 4:00.
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welcome back, everybody. power lunch on its way to you now. rising rates not only affecting home sales. bo manufacturers feeling the crunch. still up 7% this year. lowering its earnings forecast for the third quarter. looking out further, david fowlkes is the ceo. welcome, good to have you with us. >> thank you, great to be with
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you. >> looks like a beautiful day wherever you are. in new york city, i hope so. >> it is new york city, right on the hud and river. >> tell us about the industry and how your company is doing. racing tentativeness that you would not have seen a year ago on behalf of consumers? >> it is a different consumer market environment. the effects of rising interest rates on financing costs. obviously we are at discretionary purchases. this year it has been fairly strong compared to last year. first is the stabilization of pricing. that is really helpful for consumers understanding what these rate hikes are. certain things are more expensive overall in terms of
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financing. at least they are stabilizing over the most recent period >> if we were doing this interview two years ago, i would not have asked you about any supply chain issues that you are facing. let me ask that. are you having supply-chain issues? since you brought up the matter of inflation and price increases, how much of you increased the prices of your vessels? two years ago it might have cost this and now it is 12% higher or 2% higher. >> yeah, the pricing of our boats, 2.5 years through these supply-chain prices and inflation. probably about 20% for a typical boat. that pricing, we have moderated it over the last six months or
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so. that is what you said, the input costs are very moderated. a good backdrop. for the supply-chain crisis that you have referred to. that does not mean that consumers are not seeing high prices. we have to implement discounts and -- >> when i see an autonomous docking boat, i get a little nervous. what will happen with cars but i did not think about boats of driving them self. self driving boats? >> yes. the automotive part every day. it is a bit different in marine. trying to detach the driver
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from the experience. with a recreational boat, driving the boat is part of the experience. the most stressful situation, one of those is docking. it can be a stressful situation. with the system we plan to bring to market in 2025 which autonomously docs the boat, you press a single bite in the boat finds the dog. >> i love that. that is what i fear most when i am asked to drive a boat. let's talk about the rage in the automotive business. electric vehicles. will that ever come to the boating world? >> yes, in a slightly different way. the first three models of the lineup of electric vehicles,
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they look the same as the bigger combustion engines. we can electrify small boats. it is more expensive. we see with waterways and lakes and the combustion engines. that is your only option there. the other way is that a lot of bigger boats have a generator that powers a lot of the onboard systems. we can replace that with high- capacity lithium ion battery packs. marine is a more difficult application. >> yeah. yeah. >> what happens if they mix? fire? explosion? or will it sink?
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>> we just have to make sure that they don't. we have to make sure that we have the right preventive measures in place. that if something like that does happen, the vessel will respond in the right way. >> an interesting conversation. thank you. >> you're very welcome. let's get a check on instacart which opened on trading at $42 and is just above $37 today. a tough day for anyone who bought the stock on the open. we'll have more on the next. at, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about.
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so. the ipos that we are seeing these days, they are down or they are flat in the private valuations. cornerstone investors with a different allocation of the offering. float sizes have been under 10% which limits the amount of shares available relative to the size of the company. pricing after the bell today because it raised its rates. it will come in at the high-end or above the new rate. to the point he was making that it was a service company indicative of where the pipeline is. absolutely. yes. >> thank you very much, we appreciate it. let's go to bertha for ace
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cnbc news update. >> rudy giuliani sued claiming that he owes him $1.4 million in legal fees. racked up from investigations into his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. giuliani was charged last month with trump and so many others in the georgia election case said that the lawyer's bill was way in excess. the international criminal court says that it has been hacked. discovering the breach after there was unusual activity last week. based in the netherlands, they did not say how extensive the hack is or who is behind it or if it has been resolved.
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>> it is only september, the u.s. postal service is now accepting letters to santa. they will start posting the letters online on november 20th. that way you can send gifts to a kid in need. the program is now in its 100th year. let the kids know that there are supply issues even up at the north pole, you want to get them out there early. >> thank you very much. after the break we will talk to commercial investment company -- we will hear straight from the ceo next. cnbc celebrates hispanic heritage.
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climate week is underway in new york city. companies talking about their efforts to become more efficient. there are others. joining us now, the president of sl green. welcome to you both, diana. >> who better to talk to about organizing real estate. we are surrounded by climate tech companies in the real estate companies. how hard is this to do to electrify new york city. how much is a cost and how much to go online? >> it has been an initiative for a long time for us. we are a leader and to join us in this effort.
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we are all working towards leed status for all of our buildings. particularly our newer properties. we are still having that experience in the building. these unbelievable initiatives to save electricity. to make ice at night to cool buildings during peak times. how to monitor building systems to make sure we maximize efficiency. we need help with from the state and city in terms of the grade. >> i want to talk about that. i.r.a. funding and infrastructure going into all types of real estate nationwide, is that directed at the grade? >> the grade in new york city is fueled by fossil fuels.
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we need big help in terms of meeting the climate goals with washington. in terms of net zero by delivering free power to the city. powerlines, wind and solar and power from outside of the city going into the city. >> you already had a difficult go of it as we know. when it comes to devaluing the properties. how much is that going to hit the office action in general? some offices that are not leasable because they are not meeting the requirements? >> what has been set up within the city, it is a reasonable framework. they are working with the real estate industry to make sure that the different real estate properties can meet goals that are realistic. we can meet the highest standards coming right out of
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the blocks. our footprint is as low as possible. there is only so much retrofitting that we can do. >> it is about regulations requiring you to cut out emissions by 2050. do you feel that those are attainable goals? >> i think they are attainable for the newer buildings. for the older buildings, they are too aggressive based on today's technology. trying to find technologies that can get us up to speed by 2030. the cost for newer buildings, as i said, it is reasonable. the cost for older buildings when we talk about retrofitting, difficult to underwrite and it is not
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economic. that is the struggle going on right now. >> i think one of the anchors has a question for you? >> i want to switch from the environmental issue to the occupancy issue. analysts are worried across the country about office building occupancy rates. what is your vacancy rate today? how does it compare with a year or two ago? what are you forecasting for the future? are you concerned that commercial real estate will have some tough times ahead? >> the lease occupancy is -- we are in the low 90s as opposed to the mid-90s. that is what a lot of analysts are tracking. they are trying to look at the returns and how engaged people
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are. during covid we were at 10% physical occupancy. it has been great to see and encouraging. we would like to see a pumped up to 75% where we were pre- covid. a lot of the tenants and the heads of businesses are focused on getting their people back in the office more days, more consistently. that will have a big impact on leasing demand in the city. the downturn that you referenced will not be as severe as everyone is thinking. it will be if we can get a little bit of time to work through the back of the higher rates. >> obviously we have a fed meeting tomorrow. front and center. they have made it to be next to impossible. coming on the market, it is pertinent. we are told there are no deals
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being done because of higher rates. would you like the fed to know? >> i will keep it realistic. i would love to see some forward guidance where the top is so that people can start to adapt to a rate environment that is stable and is not escalating every two months. to have that kind of visibility would allow us to adjust our business. we talk about building a battleship in a day. adjusting business plans and planning for the future. it is hard to do that in the environment we have been in the last few months or so. >> thank you so much. back to you. >> diana, andrew, thank you so much. los angeles is now on the cusp of six dollars per gallon of gasoline. will talk more when power lunch returns.
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plenty from chevron's ceo that -- this fall between the u.s. and i ron. >> six central bank rate decisions this week. this is on top of everybody's mind. this is a slow ascent from june. back in the spring, $22 billion in oil across different features and options. that is $65 billion as of last week. now there are six times as many long positions for every short position. the last time the ratio was so high was when we saw a $10 decline in the price of oil. the canary in the coal mine when there is so much activity around this. we feel like the inflation picture was under control.
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now oil is front and center. how much that feeds into inflation. >> we let into this with the idea that in california, six dollar per gallon gasoline. how is that going to sustain? >> the capacity in california has dropped 9.5%. they have had some issues at the refiners earlier this year. they export some of their refined products to places like arizona. with restrained refining capacity. the only option is a tanker. trying to get it from the gulf coast, there is a lay in the panama canal. >> it is one or two cents higher in the last month.
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all of these pockets of distortion. >> interesting. very interesting. >> they don't have enough rain and water anymore. it all comes together. thank you very much. next we are removing the human error. self driving struggles would allow ai solely to operating controls such vehicles. others want a hybrid approach. discussing what the future might hold when we come back.
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especially tesla? >> we think that the strike can have a positive impact on companies like tesla. and other unions that they employ. we think despite certain price discrepanc discrepancies, electric vehicles are better performing vehicles so to the extent the strike lasts longer it could benefit electric vehicle adoption in the two companies we cover, tesla and riffvrivian. >> does it benefit others that are nonunion >> we don't cover those but it could impact those. >> a lot of the ev names are down today. >> people anticipated this positive impact they could have
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and the negotiations are fluid and day-to-day we don't really track the performance and who knows what's impacting the stocks from one minute to the next but over an extended period of time, we think these ev upstarts, including tesla and rivian should take market share and given their newfound infrastructure and their ability to build a vehicle from clean sheet of paper should impact their results. >> it's striking the median worker makes less than $35,000 at tesla and 80,000 a ford and gm, that's a gap you think for tesla, this neune debut, in fact, it led you to downgrade mobileye what's the significance of the launch there >> we didn't downgrade mobileye we reiterated our buy rating
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there. within autonomous vehicle circles what elon musk did a couple of weeks ago in terms of his live stream, he demonstrated that tesla has a network enabling full self-driving version 12 that means the system takes photons in, video images, and controls out in the middle of that is artificial intelligence. there's zero software code involved in making sure the vehicle goes from one place to the other. it learns on its own to navigate its environment. a company like mobileye and aurora we cover as well means there's a hi ybrid approach so sure within that system hard coding software instructions is the way to go. and mobileye's ceo came up and explained his logic behind
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having that software code embedded aurora believes that the same approach is going to win in our recent note we said we don't know who's going to win the race, elon musk, mobileye or awe aurora it's hard to doubt either but at the end of the day who's going to win pure artificial intelligence or a hybrid approach between the two >> it's a really interesting question let me tell you something else that's hard to figure out and that is whether drivers are going to trust these sons of guns, because i own a tesla and sometimes when the automatic steering takes over, it does anomalous things in the middle of my driving. this is all about me anyway, george when i come to work, there's
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construction at route 46 and valley road in my area and the access and egress is different every day depending on what they're working on. how is an autonomous vehicle going to understand that >> a really great question and the thing about artificial intelligence and machines or computers that can learn from iterations is that they can figure out how to navigate that environment. >> i hope so. >> yeah. i certainly -- the systems have been getting better with time. as a matter of fact, in our recent note we dissected mobileye's system deployed in zero with a zeeker 001 and it navigated that kind of environment. tesla maybe you've had a difficult journey. but in other circumstances it's navigated that kind of environment. we think that autonomous vehicles and the technology behind them is the most profound
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technology we'll see deployed within our lifetime. it's going to increase resource utilization. improve safety and some parts of the world it'll replace public infrastructure it's like deploying wireless networks where they were much less expensive and useful than wire line from 20 years ago. >> fascinating i look forward to that i really do. it could be truly, truly exciting and i'm usually wrong. so i think you're probably right. george, thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. >> we're all excited for that. just feel like we're stuck i the murky middle many more stories to get to, closing time right after the break. we'll see what we can squeeze in alysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley.
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even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise] welcome back these are all great stories we have about two minutes so let's get to it. we have to hit the national debt, crossed $33 trillion for the first time and no surprise, tyler we're seeing pushback on the republican's plans to fund the government. >> there could be a government shutdown my son asked $33 trillion in debt does it matter? there are some people that say it doesn't matter. i think it does matter. amazon announcing it's going to hire 250,000 employees in the u.s. to help manage the holiday rush, 100,000 more than last year and bumping the hourly pay for
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warehouse and delivery workers a good thing and a good sign of what amazon expects. >> overall retailers are expect to hire the least workers since 2008, about 410,000 compare ftx is looking to claw back millions of dollars from the parents of sam bankman-fried this lawsuit said they discussed the transfer of a $10 million cash gift, $16 million luxury property in the bahamas. >> and chuck schumer allowing senators to wear whatever they want on the floor. the move is done to accommodate the casual style of newly elected senator john federman. my father worked on capitol hill for 35 years i don't think he ever went to work without a coat
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and tie in the hottest days of washington summers i have all the sympathy in the world for senator federman >> when we went into the capital i couldn't wear a sleeveless outfit i wonder if that still applies or not. >> times are changing. >> sorry about being an old fudd dy dud dy. welcome to closing bell i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner less than 24 hours before the fed decision as wall street debates whether the consumer and economy can handle what the bond markets are throwing at them major indexes up from midday lows you see the dow down .5%, the s&p 500 down .75%. 5.
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