it's 5:00 a.m. at the u.s. capitol. here's your "five@5. key for investors, if the central bank remains highly attendant to inflation risk. also here in washington, the shutdown showdown showing know signs of easing up as kevin mccarthy struggles to get his house in order that's even before reaching across the aisle. finalcountdown

three for three in pricing plus, goldman sachs reportedly ready to deal away its troubled lender green sky, and elon musk is asking volunteer if they would like a brain implant. let that soak in it's wednesday, september 20th you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc ♪ good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. coming to you live from the washington, dc, bureau the most important market for investors is happening right here at the nation's capitol as we always do, we'll kick off with a modest day of trading that i posted their second down day in three take a look at futures now in the green across the board looks like the dow would open up

35, 40 points higher. as we always say, it's early the 10-year sitting at 4.34% right now. the 2-year note ticking up a few basis points for that yield there. we continue to watch the bond action all morning long as we lead up to that big fed decision later today. also in energy, a recent thorn in jay powell's side we look at wtis, the u.s. benchmark right now at under 90 bucks a barrel down 1.5%. brent crude just above 93 bucks a barrel down about 4% right now. to the action or inaction on capitol hill, congress is staring down a deadline to avert a partial government shutdown at the end of this month, now just 11 days away infighting with house republicans is preventing

lawmakers from passing a stopgap measure after funding spires on september 30th republicans failing to advance the spending bill yesterday. a group of five hard-lined conservatives are joining democrats to vote against opening debate on the measure. much more on that story coming up later this hour. first let's get a check on some of this morning's top corporate stories. our silvana henao is here with those this morning good morning to you. >> good morning to you, thank. ipo's klaviyo prices ipo at $30 a share. the stock will begin trading at the new york stock schainch today under the ticker kvyo with blackrock and a.b. bernstein agreeing to buy up to 100

billion shares and intel following fresh comments from pat gelsinger telling cnbc yesterday he's wanting them to bring back margins. >> overall we've shown great financial discipline on cost savings, beaten rates as we've gone through the year. we're feeling the momentum in the marketplace. this is an expensive jjourney. we've invested a lot, lowering the margins, consistently bringing back what we've committed on the streets i'm feeling good about every aspect of the execution and financial performance. this follows a warning from intel on data center chip demand inventory processors is taking longer than expected to clear and the recovery of that

business may be delayed. and elon musk's brain startup is recruiting patients for its first human clinical trial with the goal of giving people the ability to control the computer using only their thoughts in the broad post neura link is using the trial to test the safety and functionality of its proposed tool, frank. >> very interesting stuff there, silvana. >> very, yeah. >> a lot of talk about elon musk and the book coming out. elon musk everywhere. >> everywhere. everywhere, every tai. >> you're fwgoing to be everywhe every day, too, silvana. see you later. in september, living up to its reputation as the worst month for stocks with the s&p 500 falling to the bottom of its bullish trend now sitting below

the 50-day moving average. stocks within several sectors, they're also hitting key resistant levels from energies and financials let's talk more about what the technicals will be saying. greg with piper sandler here great to see you. >> thanks to have me on. >> i want to ask you what do you see in the technicals? is it changing your target you made a few weeks ago >> frank, it's not changing our year end objective at all. once summer ends we see a pickup in the october, november, december time frame. in terms o what we're seeing in the time frame, all we see is a

healthy consolidation. i think that's just from the pause and refresh before we take the next leg higher. >> all right so you brought up the word "pause," and it's important. according to your research, a pause is important today we're all but certain we're going to get one, but there are questions whether we've seen the last rate hike in this cycle according to your research again, that's really important the time between a pause and cut leads to a rally do you believe we're actually on the path to a rally? >> i'm not sure if we've seen the last hike or not from the fed, but if there is going to be one more, it would be in the november time frame. if i look at some of the interest rate probabilities, fed probabilities at this point in time, it's virtually zero you're going to get a rate increase today. probabilities for a rate increase in the november time frame, those have declined to around 20, 30ish percent range

whether we get a hike or not is not the important point. the important point will ultimately be whether it's july or november, we know from looking back through history that it usually is about 8.2 months until you get your first cut, and the market tends to do well from the last hike to the first cut and you're up 13%. so i think we're setting ourselves up for the next push into q4 and early part of 2024. >> craig, then it's a really big deal whether or not we're going to get another hike because that s sets us up for how the rate hike is going to look like. with that uncertainty, what sectors are you looking at right now, pretty much knowing we're going to get a pause today >> the best sectors i'm looking at right now, and i'm seeing good relative strength is technology we just upgraded the services sector given the strength we're

seeing and we're seeing strength in the industrial sectors. so those are three areas that we're overweight cyclicals for us right now, consumer cyclicals to be precise, they're improving but not as strong as the other sectors right now. in terms of areas we're un underweight. that's sort of the normal barbell we put at piper. >> craig johnson, also good to see you, thank you very much. we've got a lot more to come on "worldwide exchange" including the one word investors have to know today but first why homebuilders in the know may want to tune in to jay powell's press conference. plus one ev maker, they just cannot catch a break. and later, we have a very but hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns live from washington, dc stay with us

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. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." take a look at futures higher across the board. all three indices up we'll take a look as the trading day gets underway. our joumanna bercetche is in the london newsroom with much more good morning. >> good morning, frank the picture for europe is decidedly green. every single one is trading in positive territory a lot of focus on the ftse 100

you can see we're-inching 0.6% higher, this after a much softer than expected inflation print. the headline inflation slowed to 6.7% year on year in august. that was down from 6.8% in july and sick nif can'tly lower than expectations so on the back of that, we've seen a nice rally in some of these equity stocks, rate-sensitive stocks from homebuilders like 5%, 6% investors are now saying going into tomorrow, the bank of england meeting, it's not so clear cut they will have to hike sitting around 60/40 right now xetra dax up wholesale numbers have been pulling down some of the pricing, something to keep an eye on as we think about the ecb and their next steps

we're seeing some brokered downgrades come through. jeffries has down graded some of the stocks, carrying some of the names in that basket that have been down graded as well for the most part on this big markets day, we are trading more positive, frank. >> thank you very much joumanna bercetche live in our london newsroom. the fed decision likely offering insight into the housing market with high prices, multi-decade mortgage rates, all of it putting pressure on buyers and would-be sellers bidders feeling pressure as well joining me now to discuss is leading analyst at housingwire logan, good morning. thanks for being here. >> great to be here. >> we just hit on it housing is at the lowest level since june of 2020, the middle of the pandemic. today we have a fed decision does the fed have any impact on

the housing market does the commentary have any impact on the housing market >> they're high enough to be comfortable, but if they let the bond market get out of hand, the housing market where existing low sales are low already, they can get worse, so i'm not in the fed pivot camp, so i think their comments will give you an outlook on what they want to see. it will be interesting to see. >> logan, i always love to have you on you come with the chart and new dates. the new listing trend still below what we saw in the last two years. not really dipping considerably lower. kind of holding steady over the last few months. how should we read that? how should consumers read that

and investors? it hasn't taken another leg lower. even with lower legs above 7% for some time now. so hopefully we've created a bottom in this most sellers are buyers as well, so we need the new listings data to form a bopp and get the housing market back to something we would consider normal. >> you say we need the bottom. are we at the bottom right now >> i would say yes i would say that we're forming a bottom we've tested this new listings data for many months right now we're not seeing a lower -- higher mortgage rates are creating weakness in pricing, but it's still 3%, 4% below what we saw last year in terms of percentage of price cuts >> we have diana olick on the show all the time. she says generally when rates fall back to below 7%, people

buy houses if they're above, they pull back do we stay at the bottom even though the rates are above 7 >> with new listings growth, since most sellers are buyers, we can trend higher from here. the question is does the job loss reflection force a new listings data in a bad way that tends to be the case. so far jobless claims have stayed low enough to prevent that from happening. but at some point in the future, you'll start to see new listings growth from stressed sellers that hasn't been the case for the last 13 months, but if the job loss recession is on the horizon, then the data will increase for the wrong reason. >> all right logan mohtashami, also great to have you. fedex's third quarter

earnings report today could give them a lift. we're back with much more from the nation's capital right after this to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. (mom) bringing in a new roommate to save money - is that the plan? (dad) well we gotta find some way to save. so say hi to glen. from work. (glen) hey. that's my mom. (mom) i think i have a much better plan. we switch to myplan from verizon. we get exactly what we want and save big. all on the network we can count on. (daughter) it's a good plan (dad) that is a good plan. glen looks like we're not going to be needing you. so i'll see you at work. (son) later glen. (vo) this week. new and current customers... get a free samsung galaxy s23. plus galaxy watch and tab. all three. all on us. that's a savings of over $1800 offer ends soon.

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time now for your money market movers. we begin with instacart. the stock closed up 12% after an initial 3% pop early in the day. they priced its shares at the top end of the 28 to $30 range,

giving it a valuation south of $10 million jo goldman sachs is in talks to sell greensky to kkr, sixth street, and pimco. hong kong shares are sinking following a u.s. drop yesterday, the fall coming after the ev maker said it will get a yield neo says it will use the proceeds to strengthen its balance sheet. the shares down 12% right now. turning to earnings after the bell, we're talking fedex. it continues to outperform rival u.p.s. year to date.

fedex announced rate increases starting next year this quarter revenues are forecast to fall by 6% while e southeast is expected to grow. margin yield is 6% compared to 5.3% from last year. the major metric to watch is express revenue and margins, which is forecast to be 2.5% express is about 50% of revenue as well. we're also looking out for any commentary from customer wins on u.p.s. and teamster negotiations and also yellow time now for a check on more of this morning's headlines

outside the world of the markets and your money nbc's jessica layton is in new york with the very latest. good morning. >> hey, frank, good morning to you. in a new filing lawyers for hunter biden say he will plead not guilty to felony gun charges. he was indicted last week by a grand jury on three counts of using a gun while in possession of narcotics biden's attorney wrote his client is not looking for any special treatment here he just wants to minimize the burden on government resources that an in-person appearance would require. a date for arraignment has not been set. meanwhile president biden took the stage at the general assembly, using the time to implore world leaders not to give up on ukraines, warning of the consequences a russian victory could have watching from the audience was ukraine president volodymyr zelenskyy attending the world gathering for the first time

since the war in ukraine began he added in his address it would persuade other potential invasions across the globe. and following a viral tiktok trend, pringles unveils a new snack. the limited edition kits cost between $49 and $140 frank, my question here, are we going barbecue, sour cream and onion, or original >> what goes with seafood? i love pringles and caviar i don't know if it's the right combination. jessica layton, live in new york it's always great to see you. straight ahead on "worldwide exchange," the summer of workers discontent making its way across the pomd, possibly throwing a wrench in apple's iphone 15 launch we'll have much more coming after the break. stay with us

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all right. it's right around 5:30 a.m. in washington, dc, and there's still a lot ahead on "worldwide exchange." it's decision day for the fed. it's all about the road ahead and whether the central bank will keep up its hawkish tone. countdown and shutdown the government faces another hurdle the potential investor implications that's coming up some relief for ford as it

comes to a deal with labor workers, just not here in the u.s. it's wednesday, september 20th, 2023, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland coming to you live from cnbc's washington, dc, bureau the most important market action for investors that appears to be happening right here in d.c. we pick up a half hour with the big fed decision futures solidly in the green it looks like the dow would open up 35 points higher, but it's early. we want to get a quick check on the bond market ride now the 10-year at 4.34. the 2 yee back above 5%. we want to talk energies

oil. back below 90 buck as barrel 89 and some change similar story for brent crude also down, just about .25% natural gas taking a bigger move to downside, down almost 4%. now to our top market story, here in d.c., the federal reserve set to lay out its latest policy decision interest rate traders all but certain the fed will stand pat and keep rates where they are at 22-year highs. but it's a different look from september to december. joining me now is chief economist at global management, a firm with over $5 billion in total asset management thanks for being here. >> good morning, frank. >> you've go a lot of assets, a

lot of clients i'm sure your clients are asking you what do you think about today's fed decision and i want to talk about that statement highly attentive we heard it could be a market mover. >> absolutely, frank this is very important the fed has been raising rates 550 basis righted in total up to this point, and the question for them still is this enough. the key question is what is the communication to the future? do they feel we've reached a path where inflation is going down or the other side is employment being achieved? the conclusion to your question is they will continue to signal

on hawkishness if they don't see any change, stick to the current path, it will be a risk they think about. what type of economy is it going to be required to generate the more than 2% cuts they have in the forecast it's going to be very, very important. >> we tend to look at it as one big number you sent us a chart. we're going to look at the data right now. you're saying goods inflation is moderating but services inflation is a different story. does that differentiation, does that matter to the fed in your opinion? >> it does matter. 80% of the economy services, we all tend to, all of us, think about inflation, that's what i buy in my store and what i have in my basket of goods. but that basket only makes up 20% of your overall spending

if if 80% is still quite elevated, then the problem for the fed is if they're still above target, if they're around 4, 5 and we should be at 2, the challenge is can you get that slowdown in the economy without slowing the service sector, and it's still red hot. people are still flying on airplanes, eating alt restaurants, staying at hotels, going to taylor swift concerts all of those becomes very, very important if the economy is still red hot. that's what they need to address. yes, goods have been resolved but everything we go and enjoy after the pandemic is still quite hot. that's the challenge that also needs to come down

closer to 2%. >> you know, torsten, it's hard not to chuckle at the fact that taylor swift's concerts affect the u.s. economy you look at the pending negotiations with u.p.s. and looking at the autoworkers. >> when you go to a restaurant, the key input into the price of what you pay is the cost of labor. so wage inflation, which is still quite elevated, the average earnings is still .3 again, before the pandemic, earnings was between two and three. it's correct to say, yeah, the service sector is driven by what's happening on the labor front, and exactly to the point about the uaw strike and even also the issues with the shutdown that becomes quite important

it may not matter if it's all temporary, but the longer these things last, it might begin to have some ripple effects and more permanent effects on wages. also there's the shutdown that might or might not be coming do they turn hawkish >> torsten slok of apollo, great to have you again. time now for our top stories. silvana henao is back. >> ford reaching a deal with the canadian workers they struck a tentative deal with the automaker keeping more than 5,000 members on the job. the details have not been made

available yet. they've recommended it to its members for a ratification vote. meantime china is leaving its benchmark unchanged. it comes after the people's bank of china trimmed its lending rate it's a peg for most mortgages and was also unchanged. and philip morris is reportedly considering options around its push into health care according to "the wall street journal," the tobacco giant is eyeing potentially selling a stake in its biggest pharmaceutical unit. it bought that and two other pharma companies in 2021 for more than $2 billion as part of a plan to diversify from cigarette sales, frank. >> all right silvana henao, thank you very much. >> you got it. turning our attention back to dc, congress has less than 11

calendar days and less in working days they're also stalling movement on spending bills as the tentative deadline looms larger by the day our emily wilkins joins us good morning. >> good morning, frank they handed khem two setbacksful first house leaders had to cancel a planned vote with the stopgap spendi ing measure afte it fails to get enough votes and the procedures went down after five republicans voted against it kevin mccarthy was not happy he posted his frustrations right afterward. >> you've got more than 170 amends you can change it if you don't like it. the idea that you voted against

a rule you didn't bring up, that doesn't make sense. >> they haven't given up on getting their border security and migration plans done they spent hours proposed changes to the legislation more than a dozen said earlier this week thaw would oppose. but they're making progress on getting more members to yes. of course, even if the house finds a way to pass the temporary measure, senate majority heeder chuck schumer said ohm a bill not sur ported by the republicans h not go anywhere in the senate. we're days away from another massive gift shutdown. requiring one would force the white house to accept a bipartisan solution. however, this week republicans are trying everything but

bipartisan everyone knows the gop's proposed cr is a nonstarter in the senate. >> mccarthy is hungry to get a stopgap pass they might be working this weekend to get an agreement done frank? >> i'm sure there's no members of congress that want to hear that the fact that they might be stuck working over the weekend, do we see any bipartisan dealing coming together, or is the senate making any moves? >> there's definitely discussions among democrats an republicans in the house about what they're going to do if the c cr cannot get passed part of the concern is if mccarthy brings a bill to the floor that doesn't have all the republicans on board, that could lead to threats and challenges to his speakership he wants to avoid that

at the same time, the short-term stopgap measure has to come from the house and that's where all the action is right now. >> thank you great to meet you in person yesterday. you and i got to spend time together and talk to lawmakers emily wilkins, great to see you. let's get more insight into what's going on in d.c ed hill with raymond james good morning a lot to talk about. >> welcome to d.c. >> where else could you be on a day like this. fed, possible shutdown i want to follow what emily is saying it's looking more and more likely like a government shutdown what are you hearing about this. what is in your mind the likelihood of a shutdown coming up >> i'm focused on the senate and we're focusing too much on the house. in the senate, they actually have a shell of a bill that they can do as a cr

every time the house fails to do something, that increases the probability that the cr, this continuing resolution to keep the governmentfunding comes out of the senate. if that passes with 70, 80 votes, that puts an incredible amount of pressure on the house to take this up, and so every time the government moves forward, that increases the probability of it to stay open because the senate moves first that i have a bill to to that with and there is a vote in the house. and if the outcome in the house is this group of house freedom caucus members won't say yes to anything, they have to move beyond it, and there is a vote of the whole house on what's passed the senate. and that probably gets 300 votes. we keep this government functioning. >> ed, that's counter intuitive.

i want to be clear what's the like high hood. if you could put odds on it, what would you say >> i think it's 75 what i find is things look impossible urp until the moment's inevitable. so the chair and ranking members of the senate are working on their continuing resolution. what i'm focused on there, do they add in provisions that are problematic to the house they're doing that with zelenskyy coming to town tomorrow and meeting with the entire senate. if it passes, it has that 300 vote in the house, which is a

way to get around rules. yesterday you saw the whole thing come apart because the house republicans couldn't pass a rule well, if you can get 300 votes for something, you don't have to go through the rules committee you don't have to have a fight on leadership. mccarthy is trying to negotiate a leading portion but that could make the rest of the process where they have to cave. >> ed, i want to hit something else that's a little counterintuitive a shutdown is good for the market and good for investors. explain this because this doesn't seem like it makes a lot of suns. >> government goes down, market goes up. we at raymond james have governor back to 1995. the s&p 500 is up 3.2% during

shutdowns. we have to pay attention to this in real the market goes up, and that's so counterintuitive, we wanted to make sure we point that out to our clients. >> strange day at mills. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the potential dire impact uber says drivers overseas may be facing the new rideshare rules take hold. we've live in dchl krchlt. back in just a moment. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." jpmorgan is downgrading dollar general's weighting and price target to under 116 per share, citing in part the fact that their customers are already at a stress point and they're acting recessionary rbc capital coverage of ibm, rbc saying it's optimistic on the company's competitive. shares of ibm up fractionally higher the firm says it expects a more challenging backdrop to persist for at least a few more

quarters during recent signs of weakness in the historically pet food scat goir jo time now for your global briefing we begin with inflation coming in below expectations for august and dipping slightly from july, easing food prices, one of the biggest factors, bringing prices down 6.7%. uber is warning propoelsed rules around gig workers is affecting drivers on the block it says it would put into place cutdowns and raise prices in cities at above 4% they're aiming to improve working conditions for gig workers. and metaexpands its whatsapp payment service to india it will let people purchase

goods and services directly through the app. ahead, we have the one word that every investor needs to know today, plus gearing up for the fed decision the central bank move your next guest says cldou spark fresh data market profitability. much more coming up right after this

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we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we're here at the nation's capital. a live look at the capitol right now. jay powell's fed policy meeting at 2:30. goldman sachs is in advance talks to sell specialty consumer lender greensky to a group the deal will be worth about $500 billion, less than a third what goldman paid for green sky.

the fall coming after the ev maker said it will raise $1 billion in a new convertible bond sale. klaviyo will begin trading at the new york city today under the ticker after a successful debut. the stock closed up at 12% after an initial 43% pop earlier in the morning. block berg reporting that apple store employees in france are calling for a strike on friday and saturday as the iphone 15 goes on sale. and elon musk is recruiting patients for its first human trial. here's what to watch today, several earnings including kb,

general mills, and fedex for many investors, it's less about today's decision, more about what the fed reveals in future policy moves and our next guest says any talk about rate hikes more than one defieds the future sylvia great to have you. >> thank you good morning, frank. great to be here. >> what are you watching for what kind of impact will it have on the markets >> big day today i think to lay it out there. i think whatever impact is short liv. it doesn't change my view going into the end of the year unless it's a shock i do think the wide expectation is the fed will hold today and

talk about perhaps one more authentic is what that median dot plot looks like. how many rates are being priced in for the end of the year if it's more than one, we go back to worrying whether or not there's a recession. i think we're losing that. and the other topic is going to be that 100 basis points rate cut we were thinking about for next year. if that's something that's been off the table, the market gets spooked that it will be hindered by higher rates. >> so you're paying close attention. but you're a bit of a contrarian i think a lot of the people think the fed's done is that priced in? i would think it might not be as hawkish as they previously were.

>> i think that there's probably one hike priced in anything beyond that will be something that pulls the market back and will sort of chafrpg the pricing. that's a lot of reason we should have tail winds and momentum to see a lot of accept, nasdaq, accept i think it will be chalky, so it will end a little flatter. >> if we hear a hawkish powell we've seen that when he's been hawkish. >> these are nail-biter days for me he gets on tv and tells us what we all expected. the good news is if you put things in perspective, the economy is strong.

the strong consumer continues to spend, good jobs and things like that it could be a good bining opportunity as well. that we also want to talk about one of your products it's one of the products you're telling us to highlight today. you said volume really picked up yesterday. what does that tell you ahead of the investors? >> what it does is harvests income the trade goes on at the close and then expires essentially it can generate income between 0% and 1% a day, it could be 60% for the year the reason investors are probably into something like that is they like income

they could be kind of, you look at which stocks will be impacted it certainly peaks investors' interests. >> we're looking at it right now. we don't track these very often. would you recommend people put that in today, ahead of the decision >> the reason you probably don't track it is it is brand-new and it stops it's a new way to generate enhanced income. particularly if we get a market pullback, it would be a great time to get in you'll get downside exposure on the equity

we soften the employee down. >> thank you that's going to do it for us on "worldwide exchange. tus furein the green "squawk box" coming up next. thank you for watching (glenn) hey! that's my mom. (mom) yeah... i think i have a much better plan. we switch to myplan from verizon for just $25 per line. (daughter) and that price is guaranteed for 3 years. (mom) all on the network we can count on. (daughter) it's a good plan. (dad) it is a good plan. glenn looks like we're not going to be needing you. so, i'll see you at work? (son) uh later, glenn (vo) save big with myplan. starting at... just $25 when you bring your own phones. guaranteed for 3 years. its your verizon.

it's fed day, again. full predictions straight ahead. ipo's instacart shares closed off high, but still finished above the ipo price jo and today klaviyo is set to be begin. and ford reaching a deal with

canada to prevent a strike north of the border. we'll bring you the latest on the strike we have down in the u.s. it's wednesday, september 20th it says here i'll take their word for it. 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. so far you've got green arrows these are moderate advances. dow futures thisern mooing indicated up by about 56, the s&p up by 7, the nasdaq up by 30 as joe mentioned, you've got that fed meeting coming up today, the fed decision coming upping and