tv Mad Money CNBC September 20, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
6:00 pm
>> one-year treasury. >> dan? >> qqq. >> all right, and guy? >> karen carpenter, top five vocalist of all-time. tim? >> drummers? >> that, as well. gdx. >> you missed a conversation in the commercial break. that does it for us here on "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. here on "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people make friends. i'm just trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to educate, but to put this into context. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. let's face it. there is a considerable number of knuckleheads out there who simply won't be satisfied until
6:01 pm
fed chief jay powell says my research had the stock markets to sell, upgraded to a hold, but today for no reason whatsoever, i'm making the stock market a -- >> buy, buy, buy! >> so everyone knows it's all clear. now you aren't ever going to hear it. the fact is inflation is a much bigger worry right now than recession. i thought that was obvious. but apparently not to the people who sold everything after the fed meeting where it's obvious the fed is going to put through another rate hike. the dow closing down 77 points. and the nasdaq plummeting 1.53%. as i said yesterday, i think the fed should put through two hikes. that's how hot this economy is running. why can't people see that? but all those who think powell is being too hawkish, when will the fed give us the equivalent of the all clear signal? how about when it gets what it wants? how about when it gets inflation to stop for maybe six months?
6:02 pm
that's when you no longer need to worry about the fed. and we are very, very far from that happening. it just drives me absolutely batty to listen to people who think the fed has already won the fight against inflation. what is it based on? labor is tight. housing is tight. mortgage rates are high and they doubled. it hasn't affected housing at all. 3.8% unemployment. inflation rate is much closer to 4%. the fed is targeting 2%. what's the dec disconnect here? simple. if you look at the statistics i just mentioned in a vacuum, you would think the fed should still be raising rates aggressively, maybe a half a point from here. they've already tightened so much without seriously damaging the economy, what's another 50 basis points? well, some prices have started to come down. meager, but started to come down. let me ask you, in your daily life, what is actually cheaper now than it was before the fed started raising rates? what's so much cheap they're jay powell can declare victory? hard to think of anything for me. toes think of many things much more expensive.
6:03 pm
for two years we've heard the fed's rapid rate hikes would crush inflation and lead to rate cuts. that's not happening. let me give you the disconnect. the hedge fund managers, the bill nation, they don't go to the supermarket. someone else goes to supermarket for them. they're not suffering from higher prices because they don't even know about the higher prices. frankly, the supermarket budget is way too small versus the discretionary income that they have. these gas bags have either forgotten what it's like to not have a lot of money or they never lacked for it all. they don't forget it's a big deal when rice is up 50% in a couple of months or glass of beer is 8 bucks or scallions cost $2.99 and a box of annie's mac & cheese goes for $5.40. you can use all the fed speak you want, but powell doesn't care than stuff. he is talking about the cost of scallions. he talking about the wild rice plants. he knows the real score, even if the pundits don't. i'm lucky. i got rich a long time ago, i admit that.
6:04 pm
these prices wouldn't be a distraction for me too, except my dad raised me to a cheapskate and i still going shopping, and i know who things cost. jay powell is thinking about how inflation means people need every penny of the wage boost they just got at bank of america, raised to $25 an hour by 2025. he seeing the uaw strike and driving towards class warfare in this country that we haven't seen in maybe 60 years. i don't think he wants to be known as the fed chief who goes down as the one who started the class wars. but this is not coming out of nowhere. the auw's rank file is not trying the get lake house. they're stretched right now, in large part thanks to inflation. no wonder they want more money. the strike is terrible for the business and stocks. i think it's a mistake the way they're negotiating, but shawn fein, making them money, yet the
6:05 pm
questioners and the critics, they just don't get it. they don't get there are finally people in this country who are fed up with not being able to afford things and notice prices coming down versus 2019? that's fanciful. amazon, costco, wall mark, they can't roll things back to precovid prices yet. put another way, a people who makes 45 gs isn't able to save $1,000 without cutting back. she is only going out on someone's birthday and going to olive garden. she is not sending her kids to private school. she can't afford the property tax in places with good schools. the fed can't truly beat inflation until we see the end of the bidding wars from the big houses that go on the market and are sold instantly on the first day. it can't do anything until we get more, not fewer rentaler apartments. there are so many cars that the financing charges won't make it offensive to buy one. we need to get to the point where lower income wage earners who are extremely frugal and can
6:06 pm
save $1,000 don't look at that money three years from now and say darn it, why did i save it? now it's only worth $800. i'm not trying to promote class warfare on the show. i remember what it's like to live in my ford fairmount trying to figure out where i can get a button down shirt to go with my marshall's corduroy jacket or hoping prices will going down so i could buy a pair of lees at the store that was mervyn's. there are so many people just hanging on, and they can't spend any more on gasoline than they're going right now. a good chance it's to be get more expensive. we said last night jay powell is bombarded with these clinical questions from people who don't know how much it costs to buy a box of oreos. they're not trading down. they're not giving the dogs cheaper food because they know things dogs aren't going to say anything bad. when push comes to shove, it's easy to cut back on dogs. they don't even know the difference. trust me. here is what powell wants. he would love to see prices come down without lots of layoffs.
6:07 pm
but if they don't, he'll raise rates until the prices come down, even if there are a lot of layoffs. he is willing to inflict the pain because he knows long-term the damage done by inflation is far worse than anything else that could happen right now. powell needs you to stop focusing on the price of mortgage backs. he needs hmm, prices are coming down. i'm going to wait until they even go lower. right now, though, it's the exact opposite. the mentality in this country, and you know it and i know it, prices are going higher. i better buy things now. that's the only thing you really meet to know. inflation is embedded an expected. bottom line, sure jay powell has done a good job getting inflation down from the highs, and i'm proud of him. but back then, things were really, really out of control. now they're moderately out of control. maybe that means powell is almost ready to take the stock market from sell to a hold, or maybe he'll know the time to stop tightening when he cease it and not before then. either way, don't look to powell to tell you to buy stocks. look for him to save the purchasing power, not of you,
6:08 pm
but of the working person, unless you are the working person. let's go to dave, my old friend in illinois. dave? >> caller: dr. cramer, my adorable lunatic friend, how are you? >> well, i thank you for putting me in the true context i'm in, and i appreciate, that and so will lisa my life, as you free, dave. what is else going on. >> three days ago this $30 billion health care company received a $44 million grant from the gates foundation to develop ai-assisted ultrasound applications. a component of your charitable trust portfolio it enjoys your highest ranking despite the current price lower than your average cost. of course, i'm talking about tg health care. >> it's killing me. jeff marks is much more consistent than i am, and he is like a penn state running back, frankly, who goes pro. me, i am a apoplectic about this
6:09 pm
thing. i want to go to the sellers and say to them, do you have a clue of what you're doing? listen to what dave just said. but you know what they're going to say, dave? no. we're smarter than dave. we're smarter than cramer. go eat an mri. geronimo in alaska. >> hi, jim. first time caller here. with ongoing streaming more amongst google, youtube tv, disney's hulu, dish, sling and others, do you think fubo sports can grab enough shares to make it a winning stock in the streaming battle? >> no. absolutely not. and i would be even more current except i like alaska so much i had a great time with my kids. oh my god, bob, they're telling me i can't go to bob in florida. i was looking to connect. no. that's okay. i connected with fubo. all right? fubo. or is fobu? i don't know. it ain't working.
6:10 pm
to look to powell to tell you to buy. that's right. we're waiting for powell toe say -- >> buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy! >> he's got this and he is going press it one day for us. look, he is trying to help the working person. he is not trying to help the pundits or billionaires row. on "mad money" tonight, trex with the higher interest rates a couple of signs of slowing. so are investors getting a buying opportunity or proceed with caution on the faux wood deck company? and monster buybacks. i think we're spending irresponsibly, but tonight a hasm of people who are actually doing it right. and it's football season, which means wings are flooding living rooms across the country. don't forget, i like the ones that are like this, not the ones like this, you know? and i'm hearing more about the strength in the sector with the head of a real winner, and that's call wingstop with cramer!
6:11 pm
6:12 pm
( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) woah. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools
6:13 pm
your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall. loving this pay bump on our allowance. wonder where mom and dad got the extra money? maybe they won the lottery? maybe they inherited a fortune? maybe buried treasure? maybe it fell off a truck? or maybe they switched to xfinity mobile - the fastest mobile service. save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. now i can buy that electric scooter. i'm starting a private equity fund that specializes in midcap. you do you. switch to xfinity mobile today.
6:14 pm
nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. ♪ ever since long-term interest rates started rising rapidly in mid-july, whole housing complex has sputtered. after all, mortgage rates are at the highest levels in more than two decades. a and the same goes for home equity loans. every stock has been coming down since then, including trex company, the world's largest maker of wood alternative decking and railings. now i've liked this one for
6:15 pm
years, in large part because they make a great product. it looks better than real wood. lasts a heck of a lot longer. trex has had a terrific year. a spectacular forecast for the second half. the stock has now come down more than 15% from its highs in early august. don't even help when trex hosted a terrific optimistic investor day in new york a couple of weeks ago. so could this be a buying opportunity? do we need to be more cautious in all things housing related because of the fed? let's check with brian fairbanks. mr. fairbanks, welcome back to "mad money." >> great. thanks for having us back again, jim. >> you've had a great year. i'm wondering whether the stock is reflecting the things that the federal reserve talked about today, which is they don't want inflation to be as high as it is, and yet you're really caught up in the maelstrom that has nothing to do with that. you save people money. you a product that is very inexpensive versus wood. do you think your stock is being unfairly punished because it
6:16 pm
happens to be part of a cohort that the fed wants lower? >> there is clearly still concern about the consumer in the marketplace. the consumer has been remarkably strong going into this year, and we continue to see the consumer being strong as we progress through the course of the year. but as we continue to move forward and we see that there is spending on outdoor living and enjoyment, we'll be able to prove the market wrong and continue to get that valuation where we see the opportunity to be. >> i think you're right. now you've got a number of younger people who are coming in the housing market. i spent a lot of time analyzing companies to see why people buy product. how much do you think of your customers you know something? i am saving a huge amount that would go into a landfill. i'm buying this rather than buying something else. >> it's an extremely important part of our heritage that we manufacturer or product with 95%
6:17 pm
recycled and reclaimed raw materials. we've been doing that for over 30 years now. early on, it wasn't that important to the end consumer. but today, especially with those younger consumers coming through starting to buy house, those are questions they're asking. what are your green credentials. are you really using those type of materials, or are you walking the talk. >> okay, so, let me ask you, are these people people who are redoing a house that they bought that's an older house? a house they are so-called stuck in because they don't want to pay the new mortgage rates? who are these younger consumers? >> one of the things we've seen is a nice tailwind from those consumers who may have otherwise been moving up. but due to high interest rates and high home prices, they're deciding to stay in their existing home. but they want to still have additional space and bring that indoor living to the outside in building decks. it may be a replacement of an existing wood deck that is
6:18 pm
starting to fail at this point, or it may just be building additional space on that house. that's a trend that will continue as we move forward, and especially while we see high interest rates and high home values. >> do they understand -- do most people understand the value of money up front, meaning that, okay, listen, they look at wood and they say geez, i don't know. it's cheaper than trex. but they understand the value proposition that you last longer and they would have to redo their deck within, say, five years if they used wood? >> yeah, people are absolutely starting to understand that. especially owners that have had a wood deck, and they've had to maintain that over 10 to 15 years. but those new consumers that are coming into the marketplace, they're looking for materials that are going to give them low maintenance long-term durability. trex absolutely fits the bill for that. and we spend a lot of our marketing dollars on educating those consumers when they're coming to the market, the values of trex and why they should make the trex decision. >> now you're up against, i
6:19 pm
think the market is big enough for both of you. i don't mean to say how does one do versus the other. asik does have a product a little more of a premium. a the same time, it's this kind of decking and this kind of product versus wood. it's not you versus azek necessarily. >> that's correct there is a big enough market out there. approximately 25% of the market today is composite, as compared to 75% that's wood. there is plenty of room in the marketplace. we recently have launched some products at the higher end of the market. as you recall, the last time we talked, we have launched our enhanced naturals and basic product lines to really go after that wood conversion marketplace. on the flip side, now we're really focusing on that high end of the market. when there are questions about consumer and the health of that consumer, you want to make sure that you have the right products to meet the needs of that
6:20 pm
consumer. we launched our signature product which mimics the look of wood, a very high-end product, a high price that comes along with it, and we've also updated our transcend product line now transcend lineage, that has an updated aesthetic and a refined look that the consumers are looking for today. >> i didn't spend enough time talking about railings. railings are just a job that everybody knows. the railings are the ones that get the most beat up. they're right out there front and center. what percentage of i'd say of your business is railings right now? >> at our investor day last week, one of the thanks we wanted to highlight, the trex long-term story is more than just about decking conversion. there is a great opportunity for us in railing. the cost of railing could be anywhere from 30 to 50% of the material cost of the deck, depending whether you're building more of an entry level deck using the enhanced product
6:21 pm
line or much higher where you're using our lineage product line. significant opportunity for growth. beyond that, we've talked about adjacencies of using our decking in vertical applications much like siding, fencing, and fasteners, all great opportunities for the long-term for trex. >> well, look, i think you always tell a great story, from the first time i talk to you guys. it just gets better and better. i understand what the fed is doing. the moment that the fed is done, trex will spike big. that's my prediction. bryan fairbanks, president and ceo. i love having you on the show. thank you so much. >> thanks, jim. appreciate it. "mad money" is back after the break. coming up, shareholders rewarded, or shareholders be warned? it's a wrap on cramer's three-part look at monster buybacks, next.
6:22 pm
(bobby) my store and my design business? we're exploding. but my old internet, was not letting me run the show. so, we switched to verizon business internet. they have business grade internet, nationwide. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. the not-so-secret to our success? earn and keep trust. build and maintain financial strength and stability. deliver solutions that meet complex needs. do right by customers, clients, and policyholders, always. repeat daily for over one hundred and seventy years. massmutual.
6:23 pm
partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. ♪ (birds chirping) go. and go and go and go. ( ♪ ♪ ) but what if you... stop? you work hard, it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank brings security and a guarantee that you'll earn a yield in the top 5% of competitive accounts. going, that's what got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie!
6:24 pm
6:25 pm
before we get back to our normal programing, here is something that i find very exciting. i wanted to share with you today. the reason it's so special is because it's just for you, our "mad money" viewers. you always hear me talk about the work i do for the special community that is the cnbc investing club. i mention it many times each show. for the next two weeks only, i'm going share a little taste of the work that i do with my colleague jeff marks during the day. let me give you an example of what you can get. right after this message, we have a piece on a series we've been doing about the biggest buybacks, the ones that really impact stocks. the way you can figure out what you want to invest in. in our 1020 club meetings, today i focused on constellation brands, which has a huge meeting in november. jeff and i opined on what that could mean for shares of the company that makes modelo and corona and whether you should buy the stock ahead of the november meeting. i think this stuff is so important to educating you how
6:26 pm
to be a better investor that i think you should join the club and get more insights, just like the one i gave you. and that's why cnbc, i'm very proud, is giving you exclusive offer only available to "mad money" viewers. so grab your phone. open your camera, point to it the qr code, or go to cnbc/jim offer, and i hope we'll see you at the next meeting which happens to be noon tomorrow. hey, sign up now and get on tomorrow's call. people love them. as i mentioned a measurement ago, we're in a confusing economic environment. no kidding, right? where business is starting to slow in some areas, but not all. we wouldn't have the fed doing what it's doing, which is why the fed wants to hit us with one more interest rate by the end of the year, even if it's today. i myself don't know what they're going to do. maybe they do two. maybe they do a bigger one. i think the economy is still way too hot. when you can't fully rely on the economy, i like to search for companies that are trying to
6:27 pm
take control of their own destiny. we've been highlighting the buyback month stories of the s&p 500, the companies that have purchased a large percentage of their own shares from the beginning of the year. when it's done right it will bolster earnings per share. it also represents a great investment, as long as the underlying business is improving. of course, you can also do it wrong. [ buzzer ] [ booing ] last i told you about happens when companies buy back huge k slugs of their own stock even though their stocks are headed lower. >> sell, sell, sell sell, sell, sell. >> it's the equivalent of lighting that money on fire. just a complete waste. now have i helped some big buybacks myself and i ran a smaller one every day for many years. it's a cardinal sin to be buying back stock when you know the company is screwing up. tonight i'm going talk about the opposite, buyback monsters that are doing it perfectly, well-run companies retiring tons of stock. dupont, dd, the chemical giant run by ed breene. he made people fortunes when he broke up the old tyco and
6:28 pm
orchestrated the dow-dupont merger before breaking them up into three separate enterprises. dupont a spin-off, only be talking about tomorrow. it's a big position. we want to make it even bigger. in november of 2021, dupont tried to acquire rogers corporations. that's an advanced materials make were a lots of exposure to the auto industry for $5.2 billion in cash. a year later, the regulators shot them down. less than a week after that, what did dupont do? they said hey, we're going to devote that $5 billion to buying back our stock and buy it backhand over fist. >> buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy! >> starting with the accelerated niam a $2.5 billion purchase. it's the initial 2.5 billion that land them on the monster list, 11 spot. that number understates the situation, because at the end of july, when the company last reported earlier this month, dupont announced that they completed their $3.25 billion
6:29 pm
accelerated buyback, and were immediately launching a $2 million aksel rated buyback, most they planned to do within the week of the announcement. when you run the numbers, you see that including the final buybacks, 23.25 billion plan and the initial repurchases of the $2 billion plan, dupont has likely shrunk its share count by more than 13.5%. >> hallelujah! >> that would make the third largest percentage buyback in the s&p 500. hey, no wonder it's doing so well. and you know dupont is doing it right. on average they paid 69 44 for the first tranche. that's about 5 bucks below where the stock is trading. it is still worth owning? it does depend on your outlook on the economy. if you think china is still soaring, it's too risky. they have significant exposure
6:30 pm
to the auto industry with the uaw strike reeking havoc in detroit. but if you're feeling sanguine about the economy, you think the fed is almost done, you do have any blessing to buy dupont right here, which is exactly what we did for the charitable trust and what we'll seau say tomorrow at the noon meeting. there, i gave you a real preview. next up, let's talk about the criminally underrated very analytics. before i say this is a boring company. i like boring. it's a boring technologies to the boring insurance industry that has not bored you with a repurchase of 7.3 repurchase of shares year to date. if you want to see a beautiful picture, check out verisk's lifetime chart. does your index fund look like? how about treasuries? in 2009, you could hang this, i don't know, the philadelphia art museum. no, the louvre. right next to the mona lisa, which is a really good chart in
6:31 pm
itself. this is another beautifully simple story. you can see in this terrific long-term chart that verisk shares had an atypically weak performance last year. a little drop there. nothing too bad. not content to sit on their hands and just hope investors would come around, they decided to sell their non-core wood mckenzie business which does data analytics for the boring industry off-loading becoming a pure boring play on the much steadier insurance space. that deal closed in february and a week later they announced they're putting $2.5 billion in the accelerated buyback. that breathed new life into the stock, although it hasn't hurt the software space, it has come roaring back. we saw for a company that came public tonight. how many companies back you up with a gargantuan buyback? nobody else in the industry comes close. at least in terms of returning capital shareholders. and no wonder the stock is up nearly 40% for the year.
6:32 pm
we've got a really crumby market right now, right? so you're looking for companies that are still buying back stock. they're up 40%, because you know that the buyer is going to come in and say they own that stock at year end. they want to show they did, because it has been so good. the only second best buyback. the biggest winner for 2023, remember when i said we are long on time and short on money? what does that mean? it means buying the stock on bookings holdings. and bookings holdings is formerly known as priceline. they also own booking.com and kayak. stock up 52% to date because they have repurchased 8% of its share company. here is the thing. the other big online travel agency expedia also made the buyback monster list, retiring 8.5% of its share count and its stock is up which is why i want to focus on. they're not just buying back tons of stock, it's investing to improve its business. don't forget, it looks like we're nearing the opened telephone post pandemic travel boom. but companies like expedia
6:33 pm
clearly believe in their longer term prospects or they wouldn't be purchasing their own stock so aggressively. they've been rolling out a company wide rewards program called one key that replaces their own old system. it's across expedia, hotels.com, which i love, vrbo and their airbnb competitor. this new program launched in july. i think it's a real boon in the business. in recent years the ota space has been increasingly commoditized. between expedia, priceline and kayak. so consumers need additional reasons to a given platform. i think expedia's generously reward platform, they need to come on the show and talk about it. it doesn't help that expedia sells for nine times earnings estimates. very quizzical, frankly. booking sells for mother than 18 times next year's numbers. for heaven's sake, no wonder expedia is buying back the stock hand over fist. it should.
6:34 pm
blame, in a tricky market, you need something to foul back on. and these huge buybacks can given a terrific cushion, providing the underlying companies are actually worth investing. dupont, verisk and expedia. three buyback monsters i think you can believe in. steve in arizona, steve? steve, boo-yah! >> caller: hi, jim. thanks for taking my call. >> my pleasure. >> caller: i have owned eel eli lilly for about six months and have done very well, pending approval for obesity and alzheimer's drugs. however, in the last several days, lilly has retreated from its $600 high by about $30. my question is should i hold it? sell it, or buy more on the dip? >> i always play with an open hand. we at the charitable trust sold some. we felt we weren't being disciplined. we were just letting it run.
6:35 pm
that's not the way i like to do things. that's what i teach at the club. that's what i'll teach tomorrow at noon. you cannot be greedy. we were being greedy. we took some off the table. in a tricky market, you have to have something to fall back on. these huge buybacks can given a terrific cushion, providing the underlying companies are actually worth investing. somebody asked me about autozone, up 100 today. that's all buyback. much more "mad money" ahead, including my exclusive with another i like, wingstop. after reporting another strong quarter last month, i'm seeing what's keeping this restaurant chain flying high with the company's ceo. and what does barbra streisand's song "people" have to do with a thesis currently playing out in the market? i'll reveal to you. and all your calls in tonight's edition of the "lightning round" so, stay with cramer. tomorrow -- >> don't miss the next investing club monthly meeting. >> join the club for exclusive members only access to jim's next big portfolio moves.
6:36 pm
go to cnbc.com/monthly meeting now. ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪ (mom) bringing in a new roommate to save money - is that the plan? an(dad)entlessly work with you say hi to glen from work. (mom) yeah, i think i have a much better plan. we switch to myplan from verizon. (dad) that is a good plan. (vo) this week. new and current customers. get a free samsung galaxy s23. plus galaxy watch and tab. all on us. offer ends soon. it's your verizon. don't waste your time trying to analyze market trends.
6:37 pm
that's what vector vest is for. our market timing indicators let you know when to buy and sell so you can ride the rallies and avoid downturns. vector vest's powerful tools give you the foresight you need to buy low and sell high. and while everyone else is looking at the hot stock of the day, vector vest digs deep to find the real moneymakers, the ones you can win big with. timing is everything, so make the smart investing choice today and head to vectorvest.com for your risk free trial.
6:39 pm
with football season under way, i can't stop thinking about one of my favorite growth stocks, wingstop, the largest casual chicken wing in the world. after a blistering start this year that took wingstop to a new high in may, the stock has come back to earth in recent months. last week wingstop reported a solid quarter, better than same quarter sales driven by transaction growth. not price hikes, accounting gimmicks. just more people buying more food. it raises the four-year forecast. but the stock is still down nearly 50 bucks from the may highs. is this the one we ought to start buying right now? it certainly seems interesting to me. i think we should talk to mike skipworth, the president and ceo at wingstop. welcome back to "mad money." >> thanks for having me, jim. >> so mike, this is probably one of the best quarters i've seen there is a level of gloom to the stock market that has made the
6:40 pm
stock market i think out of sync with the company that are doing well. you reported fantastic same-store sales done on an transaction basis. how do we explain the disparity between what you guys are doing and how people seem to be reacting to the stock price? >> yeah, jim, i think there is a lot of overweight, or if you will skepticism overall against the restaurant industry. a lot of the brands out there took a lot of price in 2022, and that's driving a lot of their comp, and quite frankly translating to transaction loss this year. but not for wingstop. we're different. we're growing our business in a reallyhealthy way, through strong double-digit transaction growth, which we believe just further supports the strength of our model and our unique category of one positioning. >> i totally agree. one of the things i always find when i say how much i love your stock is people haven't heard of it. i'm from philadelphia. you know wingstop if you're from philadelphia. how it is that there is still incredible brand unawareness?
6:41 pm
>> jim, we just eclipsed 2,000 restaurants globally, but yet there is a meaningful opportunity for us to grow auvs through brand awareness. we still have a double-digit gap to other national brands. and when we look at this, we see it as a line of sight to continuing to scale our auvs to north of $2 million, which sit at $1.7 million today. and that compares to an initial investment on average of about $450000 and our brand partners are enjoying payback. >> much better than every other company i follow in this industry. now i will say, sir, that you mention those numbers, but i got the limited opportunities available. either whole state, california, can't put them in. you're not, delaware, connecticut, no. colorado, not right now. florida, you got to go to tallahassee. i lived there so i can say that is this because you guys protect your franchisees, instead of
6:42 pm
having one open every single block? >> jim, we have the majority of our growth is coming from our existing franchisees that are reinvesting. if we look back over the restaurants opened the last year, over 90% came from the existing franchisees reinvesting, which i think speaks to the strength of the model and the strong unit economics that they're enjoying. >> so the chicken sandwich, i would have thought after pop eye's had already done it, that we were done. no. i mean, what is it with the chicken sandwich? >> we're really excited about the chicken sandwich. it's bringing in a lot of new guests to our brand. it's an easy way to introduce them to wingstop. but yet it's allowing them to navigate the rest of our menu. so we're seeing a halo effect in our business. and that's really what's fuelling that double-digit transaction growth that we've been enjoying. >> i got to tell you, i'm a on premises guy, but a lot of people are using doordash. are you advertising doordash app? how are they finding you?
6:43 pm
>> majority of our advertising is coming through national tv, as you mentioned, we're showing up in live sports, a strategy that we think is working. but we also are on both doordash and uber eats, two great partners for us. and that's been driving a lot of growth for our brand. and yet we have a ton of runway in those categories. >> it's not too expensive when you use those guys? >> it's not too expensive when you get quality and indulgence, which is what consumers are paying for wingstop. and i think that puts news a unique spot. we're a low frequency occasion. on average, three times a quarter, once a month. so when consumers are being more discretionary where their dollars, we know that if we deliver quality, we deliver indulgence, we're going to retain those occasions. and that's what we've seen happen in our business. >> now, michael, you've seen these numbers come through. look, i'm going have to use this term. you too much cash on the balance sheet at times. this time you did accelerate share repurchase. do you sit there at the board level and say let's keep
6:44 pm
rewarding? because it does feel like dominoes during the period it went from 10 to 300. >> we're excited about our share repurchase program and i think it's a key part of our broader return of capital strategy, and best in shareholder returns. you said it. we're over 98% franchised. we generate a lot of free cash flow, and that allows us to deliver returns that are different than a lot of other companies that are out there. and quite frankly, jim, we're pretty excited about the accelerated share repurchase, because we think we're buying that stock at a discount right now. >> i agree with you. the one last thing i need to ask is i was afraid you would be hurt by interest rates. and the 400,000 some odd you have put up to get one, maybe there is not enough people. i guess there are people who can pool their resources and already own franchises. because i know you don't -- you won't let me be the first one to own a franchise that is a wingstop. you have to have others. interest rates are not hurting the people who want to have more
6:45 pm
wing stops, whoa want to own them. >> that's right, jim. we're actually on pace for a record greer a development perspective. we expect to open roughly 250 restaurants this year. and, in fact, as you look at our development pipeline, just about any way you measure it, we're on pace for a record year. and it doesn't take a lot of capital to open a wingstop. and with those strong paybacks, those strong unit economics, the majority of the growth is coming from existing cash flow, from our existing brand partner base. >> that's exact will what i first heard during the period when pat doyle came to domino's. obviously this stock has moved a lot. so has dominoes. but i got to tell you, if you want assets, trying to talk to people here, michael, because they don't understand the economics that you just outlined, 400,000 going 1.7 to 3 million is extraordinary for a young person. pool with other people, get a couple franchises. this is how you get rich in this country. michael skipworth president and ceo of wingstop, so great to
6:46 pm
talk to you. >> thank you, jim. you tire, back right after this break. coming up, cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit. it's a fast-fire "lightning round," next. ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines.
6:47 pm
every day, businesses everywhere are asking: styles and textures. is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.
6:48 pm
(sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received. at&t business. there are some things that go better... together. burger and fries... soup and salad. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together can help you make smarter decisions. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.
6:49 pm
6:50 pm
>> thank you, bo. what's up? >> caller: i got a question. in your opinion, carrier global. is that like a pandemic play -- >> no, no. this is an unbelievable infrastructure play. i think it's terrific. i'd buy some at 53 and then wait to 49. i think dickens is doing an amazing job. i think it's a terrific stock. i'll show in train too. give you a two fer. tiler in california. tiler? >> caller: big boo-yah from california. how you doing? >> doing well. thanks for calling. what's happening? >> caller: so i like global stocks that have good dividends and large institutional investors. what do you think of bdx? >> they've got good dividends. they're a global company. they've got large institutional investor, and they've got great earnings. i think it's terrific. the only thing they don't have right now is that good a chart. but i'm saying high quality. boston scientific. i'm doing a lot of two-fers
6:51 pm
tonight. i like that too. >> caller: hi. how you? >> good to hear from you. >> caller: thank you so much for taking my call. long-time fan and listener. >> okay. >> caller: i was wondering, i have a stock in mind with a high dividend. i was thinking what would you think about this one, epd? >> enterprise, this has been my favorite. it hit a 52-week high today. why? it's a 7% yield. it's an incredible pipeline company. i think it's terrific. you got horse sense. blake in oklahoma, blake? >> caller: hey, jim. thanks for having me. >> of course, blake. >> caller: with this company looking to rival starbucks, it has slipped to a 52-week low. what is your thoughts on bros? >> i know, the dutch bros. i told them not to overexpand. would they listen to me? no. i'm just a tv guy. they're in the coffee business. but i know how to read a balance sheet. my balance sheet said they had
6:52 pm
to issue equity there. i told them issue equity higher. they are overexpanding. they want to cool it and just slow down. but don't own the stock. brian in pennsylvania, brian? i can't believe i have to say that. i wanted that stock to go higher. brian? >> happy ba-ba-ba-ba-boo-yah to you, jim. >> holy cow. right back at you. >> caller: that's right. i'm a new club member, and i want to say the information you developed along jeff marks and provide is amazing. the morning meeting is my personal favorite. >> marks is the best. >> caller: you talk to the club a lot about using pullback and buying opportunities. my question is on an ai beneficiary. is a current pullback for ante, arista networks? >> i tell you, jay tree just blew it out. an unbelievable quarter. nittany lion absolutely. it's like a new penn state quarterback. and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round"! [ buzzer ] coming up, the auto stock
6:53 pm
reminds cramer of a certain barbra streisand hit. but the ford top brass is singing a different tune. keep it here. ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo.
6:56 pm
people, people who don't need people are the luckiest people in the world. all right. that's a twist on the song sung by the legendary stock trading genius barbra streisand from funny girls astonishingly 60 years ago. the twist, if people remember funny girl. the problem in business, though, is that you're out of luck if you need a lot of people in order to make things and do stuff. i want you for one minute to compare the situation with tech genius larry ellison finds himself at oracle. jim farley finds himself in at ford motor. last week ellison's oracle reported a quarter unjustly panned, causing the stock to have the biggest one-day drop in more than 20 years. ellison answered a question about how he is going to compete in the dog eat dog digital world. he said, and i quote, our data centers are 100% automated. they can figure themselves. we don't have a lot of labor, end quote. but the biggest advantage, he
6:57 pm
goes on, quote, if you don't have human beings involved, you don't have human labor. you don't have human errors. you don't have mistakes, end quote. now contrast that with jim farley of ford. the man is going out of his way to explain how many people he has on the line. you mean people that lead to good jobs, the most of anyone in the industry. what has it done for him? it has brung him a strike that could bring the company to its knees because they upped to electric vehicles. farley can't. while he doesn't necessarily need people, he has plenty of them. he has expensive people who want to become even more expensive through these negotiations. so much for evs. now i want you to put aside the fact that the labor has been shafting the auto industry for far too long. so the union members have plenty of reasons to be unhappy. ford stock has done nothing for a decade, although at least the company didn't go bankrupt. can ford afford to have so many people if it's going to compete with elon musk and tesla? which is highly automated. people working for ford have it better, but not if the teslas of
6:58 pm
the world compete them out of existence. which bring us us to where farley is on the strike. it's not that at the moment he can't afford people. it's that in the next five years he won't be able to afford people if the uaw gets what it wants. here he is having to lock in the workers at higher wages just to keep the assembly lines going when he could move his plants to mexico for 1/20th of the cost. what happens? i'll tell you what can happen. i once took part in a strike against a major textile manufacturer. he we thought we were about to get a fantastic deal, like uaw wants. and right on the verge of victory, while we were right about to pop some top quality champagne, they closed the plant. they couldn't compete. so what did they do? they gave up. ford can't necessarily give up. but if it wants to transition to electric vehicles, which some state mace insist on down the line, sooner rather than later, it can't afford a large workforce. that's the reality. it's radically unfair. i thought it was unfair when we lost against the text time company, but we lost to an automate they're went to other
6:59 pm
countries. that's what ford faces now. it can't give in, which would be fair to the workers but they would ultimately lose to the larry ellison's and elon musk of the world. as it dribbles into a much smaller company, it will have to lay off practically everybody in order to compete. that's what i saw in '77. it can happen again in '23. make no mistake about it. that's where ford is. to be fair, to make up for lost wages right now, ford has to give up on something, but it can't understand afford to pivot to electric vehicles if it has to meet the uaw's current demands. people are too mistakes. human labor is a loser in the world. ford has no choice. it chooses to crush the union and outsource manufacturing like that unincredibly unfair miserable techer estock company that beat us, just closed the doors or ford can give in and potentially lose all of its plants down the road. which is better? i'm not sure. i think they're both bad. bottom line, in the end, i think everybody at ford is better off
7:00 pm
if they can keep these plants running and get something to the uaw. but they may end up winning the battle and losing the war as the whole business just vanishes over time, taking all those good union jobs with it. i like to say there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to 2r50i to o fifindn for you right here right now on "last call" a huge takeaway from the fed that won't make your eyes glaze over, and we're going to go all john madden on this one. labor upheaval, are americans getting behind the spread of strikes? we've got some surprising findings. billions and billions of your tax dollars gone, where did it go? demands for accountability over covid fraud ramping up. plus, ipo woes s. is the comeback party already over? and how technology could actually be hurting, the quest to find e.
62 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on