expecting any change thursday night, the rhetorical groundwork is continuing to be laid for normalization of policy and we know that what's happened in that bond market has hit globally, as well. >> yeah. the yields have been an amazing story. well, that's going to do it for "overtime." >> "fast money" begins right now. morgan, jon, thank you. and live from nasdaq market site in thaere heart of new york cit times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on top. rate shock. the ten-year roaring higher, at nearly 4.5%. why this move is sending shockwaves through the market. plus, prime problems. we're not talking deion sanders. amazon having a week to forget. the stock down nearly 10%. should the rest of tech fear that they will get whacked next? and later, will cisco's $28 billion deal for splunk kick off

a corporate wedding frenzy? our traders will talk about deals that might make sense. welcome, everybody, i'm tyler mathieson, coming to you live from studio b at nasdaq, and on the desk tonight, karen finer man, dan nathan, guy adami, and michael kentopolis. we start with that great rate rise. the ten-year yields climbing within one basis point of the key 4.5% level. trading at their highest levels now since late 2007. the rally even more dramatic when you consider that yields were at 3.4%, a full percentage point lower, just a couple of months ago in may. two-year yields marking a milestone, touching 5.2% for the first time since 2006 before they pulled back. longer-term 30-year vez treasuries rose by 15 basis points. their biggest one-day jump since

june last year. the latest move coming after lower than expected jobless claims, backed up by the belief that the fed would raise its interest rate target at least one more time. those fears also sent stocks down for a third straight day. major indexes closing at their lows of the day. the s&p and nasdaq at their worst closes since june. the dow since july. so, do these moves that equities have put in their peaks for the year? i had been talking fb three minutes. that's enough, right karen? what do you think? have we seen the highs for the year for the dow? >> i'm going to guess yes we have, but that -- there's still room now, though, for the market to go up between where the highs were and where we are now, so -- i'm always optimistic. i'm always long. day like today, that's really not a good place to be. i have some hedges in place, but we've talked a lot about rates driving everything. rates driving the market. and how we've seen just, you know, a major shift in interest rates and yesterday didn't help,

obviously, with the fed staying, nope, don't expect cuts, you're way off, you know, we're taking 50 basis points of cuts off the table. that didn't go over well. but the economic data today, as you said, a little bit hot. could have used something a little bit cooler, but i think this is sort of follow through from yesterday, like, oh, my god, we have an enormous debt problem and we have an enormous interest rate problem. >> dan, you had your eye on nasdaq. what do you think is going to happen there? how does this play out? are we -- at the beginning of a -- of a somewhat major decline here? >> i think it could be. i think about the leadership, right? we know thatmicrosoft, apple, they make 20% of the nasdaq 100, that's made up of 100 stocks. >> no. >> they're both down 11% from their all-time highs made in the summer. they've broken some technical support. they're above the trend lines

that have been really methodical since their lows earlier this year. and you have to look towards the leadership a little bit. so, that does exist in the nasdaq 100. it is also where a lot of that positive sentiment in around a.i. has lived in those megacap tech stocks. so, if that's kind of coming out of the market a little bit, then i start saying, okay, how is that equal weight s&p looking? it's basically flat on the year. how is the russell 2,000, a bit more economically sensitive to tighter credit, that sort of thing. well, that's flat on the year. so, we're seeing some things under the hood across, at least the stuff that i'm looking at, that has been deteriorating and it reminds me a bit of late 2021, where the major indices keep making new highs despite a lot of stuff under the hood not acting particularly well. and i think that's going on right here, so, again, i'd say, look to the leadership. some of these technical levels are being violated here, and ultimately, i just think with valuations, they're too high, relative to where rates are and where a lot of folks are going to be more comfortable about where rates are going to basically -- i don't know if you want to call it plateau, but

find a baseline in this near-term economic future. >> guy? >> people watching this, saying that's good news on the jobs front, why is the market down? good news is bad news. at a certain point, bad news is going to start to be bad news. karen is always optimistic, i love that about her, i was not -- >> we love that about you. >> but that's just the way markets work, but i'll say this, on the optimistic side, where we stopped today in the s&p is exactly where we topped out at in august of last year, sol past resistance becomes support. that's a good thing. here's the bad news. we've been saying this for awhile. at a certain point, higher interest rates are going to matter, and they are mattering today. today was some line of demarcation that we went through. and rates are aren't going to stop. if rates start going back down, you have to ask yourself, why are they going down? and in opinion, the only reason they will go down is because the stock market is selling off and there will be some perverse flight to quality in the form of bonds. >> let me ask you where you

think the ten-year yield tops out for this cycle? >> i don't know about 5%, between 4.8% and 5%. we have broken our nt now. these are levels we saw 17 years ago. it's clearly telling the story. karen talks about this all the time. it's not just about rates and where they're going in the fed. it's about supply and demand. it's about the market is demanding a higher yield to buy our debt. rightly so, by the way. the market is finally starting to call bs on an economy that has a debt to gdp approaching 140%. by the way, if you don't know, that's the united states. >> that's the united states. let's turn to you, michael, the same question, where do you see the ten-year topping out for this cycle, and then we'll get into some more substantive things. >> yeah, absolutely, ty. i think the ten-year could get to 5%. but remember, you are earning 4.5% on the ten-year today. if you get that for the next year and you get to 5%, i mean, it's a 0% return. it's not the end of the world.

but certainly you can go higher from here. i was listening to guy, dan, and karen, i don't know how i can agree with all three of you when you are saying different things, but i agree with all three of you. at rba, we're pretty constructive on equities, but not tech, right? when you're at the bottom of an earnings cycle, which is different than q-42021, when you're topping out of the earnings cycle, right, and i think that actually could argue for a broadening of, you know, what we see on the mag seven. and to guy's point, i mean, listen, i'm a bond guy, so, i was born and bread to be negative, you got lots of downside. >> kindred souls. >> all of us. but i think -- the ten-year can go up, that's going to have meaningful ramifications both equities and credit. and it's going to be about how you position, i think, from here out for the next 6, 12 months. >> you are a bond guy, but from what you're saying, fl interest rates are going to keep moving up, it's going to be a hard sled

for equities. >> for certain equities. if bond yields are going up because growth is accelerating, right, that should be good for your more traditional cyclical sectors. energy, materials, industrials, financials, for example, and listen, the yield curve is about as inverted as it's been in 40 some odd years. if that were to steepen a little bit, that could be good for banks, right? so, it depends. it's not totally clear-cut, but certainly isn't good for high valuation growth. >> what was it -- people were saying this was a hawk ish pau. what was it in either the messaging or the action of the fed, and karen and i talked about it beforehand and see if you answer it the same way, what was it about what happened yesterday that caused the market reaction in equities today to be as violently down as it is? it -- it was tonally different, i suppose, but there wasn't a huge --

>> yeah. >> fierceness there. >> i agree, tyler. when we look at the press conference, you know, the fact they pazed, et cetera, is very much in-line with expectations. i think the big surprise was removing a couple cuts next year. >> bang, that's what karen said. >> and that -- i think karen is absolutely right there. that's ultimate little what was the surprise, and i would argue it shouldn't be a surprise. i mean, chair powell has been telling you higher for longer for 18 months. the market just didn't believe 4i him. and i think the combination of the economic projections, plus some of the stronger data we've seen more recently, whether that be in inflation or some of the other strength in manufacturing and other areas of the economy finally got the market to wake up that maybe we aren't going to see 150, 125 basis points of cuts next year. >> that's what you mentioned. it was this idea that two interest rate cuts are off the table, apparently. >> at the moment. >> at the moment. >> right. they could go back on.

we would need some really weaker economic data, so, i guess bad is good, although when you get into a certain tape, that's bad, like guy said. that's guy's view of the point, bad is bad -- >> in a nutshell. >> good's bad. it's all bad. i do think -- >> and that's the good news. >> there you go. a little cooler data would be good. i also think that it's the rate of change. this move in the bond market has been so fierce, such a big move. guy talks about it all the time. we didn't used to see moves like this, something's broken here. and if we were to get to a level and stabilize, even if it's five, but if we sat there for awhile, i think the market would get used to that. but here, we're like, wow, that -- we could blow through that in three days. >> something's broken, you just said. what is it? >> guy's the master of something's broken. >> we mentioned before, it's the united states. >> still the largest economy in the history of mankind. i think that's fair, right? when you see a 13-basis point move, and this is not just

today. i mean, over the last 18 months, two years, you see typically 10, 15 basis point move in things that shouldn't trade that way. i'll say this again, hopefully you're watching and enjoying the show in the first ten minutes. u.s. treasury market trades $100 million bio tech stock with one drug in the pipeline. it should not be that volatile. bond market is broken, and the fed thinks they can control it and rick, i can't wait for him to come on, because he's going to be so onboard. they think -- they have zero control. the same way they thought they could control inflation, guess what? they couldn't. and the same way they think they can control the unemployment rate, which, by the way, is going higher, california, i think, is north of 4.5%. they typically lead the united states by a couple months. they think they can somehow stop it when they want to, they won't. they created the problem they're trying to fix and just going to create another problem on the back end. >> where i'd push back is, it's going okay right now. i'm just saying, if you think about where the economy is, where unemployment is, the fact

that savers, we've heard a lot of people yell and scream for a long time about your inability to kind of earn interest on your savings, there are alternatives, i guess, to high-priced tech stocks or crypto or whatever other crap you want to buy, you know what i mean? >> you can buy a nice treasury. >> so, to me, i actually think the whole idea about what sort of landing, they are landing a plane unless something else breaks, back to -- and i want to make one point about all this negativity about guy, we all spend a lot of time -- he's like the cheeriest guy. it's really just about the markets and the fed. >> look at that cheeriness. that is the face of cheeriness right there. >> you know why i'm cheery? i love -- >> i don't want anybody to put you in a box. >> there's a giant game tonight? >> there. >> and -- the giants are one of the few franchises that don't have chair leaders, they're one of three. and you shouldn't really have cheer leaders in the stock market. i'm not saying anything of us are, but we're not here to tell you everything is okay when things are not okay. things are not okay and the bond

market is telling that. >> it highlights the ill-liquidity in the bond market. qe removed a lot of the flu, right? you have basically a created a ill-liquid bond market. now you have a lot of supply, which maybe better for the future, ish, i don't know. >> if you are saying that we're in the biggest bubble, financial bubble we've ever seen, it's not in stocks, in the bond market, people have been saying that, it's coming undone. we don't know what's on the other side of that. we've seen what's on the other side of asset bubbles, in housing or whether it been in tech stocks 20 some years ago. and i just think that's really important. and back to guy's point, okay, you know, we hear this -- one of the dumbest expressions, trade the market that you have -- no, no. wall street i grew up in, like, let's trade some different markets. let's have different scenarios. let's have downside scenarios that we solve towards and worst case scenarios and better scenarios when things are going right. to me, i look at what's going on

right here, and this, to me, feels very similar to late 2021 and that was a time where interest rates hadn't gone up yet. they were going to go up, that's what the fed was signaling to battle inflation. we have inflation, and it is sticking around. and the fed is going to have to readjust, in my opinion. we've been saying this for awhile. that 2%, that's a joke. that's never coming back. so, i think we just have to be some what ready to see the goal posts move a little bit, and we don't know what's going to happen. so, when we pick up some of this stuff, we're not just trying to be negative for the sake of it. there's some things -- the ground is moving below the market's feet here. >> let's take a pause, because the rise in rates is putting pressure on the real estate sector, not surprisingly. office property and warehouse stocks make up three of the four worst performers on the s&p today. alexandria real estate, boston properties, prologis all down more than 5%. and karen, you've been active in this sector. no surprise, i suppose, that reits are getting hit here. >> very, very rate sensitive.

the whole underpinning of revaluation. so, boston properties, talked about it a couple months ago when things were really terrible. bought some of that and got a little lucky, sold some upside calls that on friday expired, these were the 6 aed5s. it's on thursday and the stock is a 60 handle, maybe it went out. so, a little luck there, but i own the rest of the position. i'm not quite sure what to do with it. i picked this one, because it is -- it is the bluest chip of the space. and they were able to issue debt, they own the premier properties, so -- i'm sticking with it. it's a day like today, or yesterday, or the day before that, all combined, not delightful, but staying with it. >> live with the discomfort. >> tyler, what do they call when you give a shoutout to somebody who caught something right? >> shoutout. >> well, jonathan litt is watching right now, he was on the show a week or so ago, and he's been talking about a.r.e.

that stock today was down significantly, making now, i believe, a six-year low, so -- i think one of the reasons you watch the show is to listen to karen wax poetic about a lot of things, the humor of dan natnat, and jonathan nailing a call like that. >> you mentioned rick santoli, and guess what? >> stop it. >> we have rick in chicago. rick, good evening. >> good evening, tyler. >> i have a feeling after the conversation we've just had here, i don't even have to ask you a question. you'll just go. take it away. what do you think? >> absolutely. and i'm sure we're going to run the charts, but you know, whether you look at intraday chart, how we closed towards the highs, you run a two-day chart, we stacked. five-year, seven-year, ten-year, they all stacked. today's lows of the range are on top of yesterday's highs of the range. these are momentum indices. if you look at the fall ten-year, once we took out those

fall highs, the biggest retracement we had was from 4.34 to 4.11. which means the next stop is in the 4.60s. if i look at my macro monthly charts, the next big one is in the 6.60s. i'm not saying that we go there. a lot depends on the speed of the current move, because it's guns hot and where the corrections come in before we make the next big prediction, but i think 4.60s are in the cards. i think what's broken is so obvious. let's look around. whether it's education and test scores, whether it's go visiting relatives in seattle and finding more tents than houses. there's a lot wrong in the country. but the biggest thing that's wrong that the bond market is finally paying attention to, after they put all the vigilantes on a whole new bunch of horses, is the fact that the u.s. government is spending ambitiously, and that's not a good thing, whether you look at the deficits, whether you look at supply, and our guest is

right, but you the fed could have interest rates anywhere they want. normalization, guy, what is normal anymore? when you have 1.4 trillion in the reverse repo market, you're paying interest there. they stopped paying interest on some of those reserves in the ecb, as of the 20th, actually. well, if you want to get rates up, just put that parking lot back in the marketplace. or in the balance sheet. yes, qt. you could speed it up, you can put rates anywhere you want. in the end, we all talk about the fed and their influence on rates, and of course you can't really fight the fed. though i don't know how you cannot try to push back a little. the fed has no crystal ball. today's data is easy. you look at initial continuing claims, the lowest levels since january. i personally don't believe some of these numbers, but until these models and the seasonality gets addressed, which could be years down the road, we could be building a case of many indicators, inputs in these

models that are only guesses at best and not very good ones. but in the end, what counters all that, there is a slowing coming. there's a slowing coming. and i'm not sure exactly how it's going to effect all markets, but in the end, as much as i think the bond market is definitely having a fit right now, the equity markets aren't going to get as hurt as i think some at the table believe. because ultimately, guy, you mentioned it, there's this self-adjusting mechanism between the treasury market and the equitymarkets. and right now, we're recalibrating that. >> you want to -- your name was invoked. >> it's funny. rick and i, we both worked at drexel, maybe just people from drexel are prone to be angry, i don't know, but we share a similar mind with this stuff. and again, we don't bring up the bond market for the sake of bringing it up. i'll take you to this bank of japan meeting, i don't know what time it is now, you're going to start hearing things from them. guess what? the largest holder of u.s.

treasuries are the japanese. guess who has been trying to support their currency? the japanese. so, their experiment is failing, well, i shouldn't say that, but it's starting to unravel, and people say, who cares about japan? that's fine. but guess what? it does have ramifications here. >> all right, we're going to take a pause. thanks, rick, by the way. meantime, corporate defaults are picking up this year, with the s&p global recording 459 bankruptcy filings in the u.s. as of august 31st. that is higher than the number of filings in the same period in all but two of the past 13 years. so, michael, you see -- you seem to expect more deterioration here, not less. you can go there, you can unpack what rick said if would like to try that, but let's talk about those delinquencies and defaults. >> yeah, absolutely. listen, something has to give when rates go up as far as they have, right? since reaching their low, i think it was on august 4th, my dad's birthday of 2020. and so, one of the things that

is clearly breaking, where we had svb, first republic, and now we're having corporate credit. the problem is, and karen and i spoke about this several months ago, it hasn't really permeated to the large cap companies yet. sends to be smaller or weaker companies, the bed bath & beyonds, the david's bridals and smaller companies from there. you have $3 trillion of floating rate debt. 13 years ago, that number was $500 billion, $400 billion, it was meaningless. floating rate debt means as rates go higher, you're resetting your coupon higher, and i'll tell you this much, coupon's gone up about three times. have earnings gone up three times since 2021? no, they have not. and that is a terrible recipe for much of the corporate bond market, private credit. as well as leverage loans. >> and companies that need to roll over debt, debt coming due in 2024, 2025, it's going to cost them a lot more to do that financing now than it would have -- >> absolutely. and that will permeate from the leverage loan space to the high

yield bond space, which is where you tend to see those bigger capital structures. and do have a lot of issuance coming due in 2025, in particular, and then subsequent years. we really are in this higher for longer environment, that's going to sting. >> all right, we've talked for 21 minutes. we're going to take a break. wake these names up when september ends. whole -- >> green day. >> green day, that was -- >> american idiot. >> great song. amazon and nvidia having a rough go of it this month. so, whether the tech troubles follow them into october? we will debate that next. plus, some gig stocks also in the red. uber, lyft, doordash all lower, and the move has options traders piling into one of these names. how they're playing it, when "fast money" returns. we're back in two. with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats?

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welcome back to "fast money." oh how the mighty tech titans have fallen. september proving to be a rough month for two of the biggest players in the market, nvidia, almost 17% lower since the start of the month, and amazon, which started out strong in september, down more than 11% from its 2023 high, it just last week. two of our traders flagging

these moves. dan, let's start with you. what are you seeing and why? >> i just think the speed where amazon told off. i look at the q-2 earnings cycle, they had one of the best results, and in an area that a lot of people were not looking for great results, in the retail business, better than expected operating margins. aws might be bottoming out from a growth standpoint. the stock sell off 15% in a week like that, it's alarming. this is a good story, forget valu valuation, whatever. i'm not saying to buy it here. i think a lot of these names are going to see lower lows. i'd love to see a little bit more fear in the market. then you start dollar cost averaging. but now, i think it's a little too early, because the market is just turning and thetech if i calls are starting to break and volatility levels have not really, i guess, gotten too many people's antennas up yet. >> guy, i was here, i think it was late august, and all the talk was nvidia, their earnings came out and i --

>> 23rd. >> was it august 23rd? >> everybody was away. >> i was here. >> you were here. and the stock went up -- >> by 16. >> where is it now? >> below 410. the stock is down roughly 20% since they reported earnings, and that was a 516 print in the afterhours, because i saw it and i was shaking my head. listen, i'll say this for the hundredth time. it's a great company. one of the most important companies in the world. without question. it happens to be an extraordinarily expensive company, and dan talks about this. hit the about all the pull forward that's probably going on. and where do you work during the day? >> new jersey. >> yeah, so, our crack staff will put up the chart of the smh. i mention this, because the three largest components, nvidia, about 21%. taiwan semi, about 10%, throw in a broadcom, just because, that stock got whacked today, and you're seeing a huge double top

in the smh. carter pointed it out. we need longer term so you the see it. things are starting to roll over, and a higher interest rate environment -- guess what matters? valuations. >> all right. we have to take a break here. a lot fmore "fast money" to com. is the gig up for gig stocks? uber, lyft, and doordash not delivering gains today. so, after a rough month, can these names pull a u-turn? plus, the pen is mightier than the sword. the latest on negotiations between hollywood writers and studios. what a potential agreement could mean for media stocks, ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." some gig stocks taking it on the chin today. uber, lyft, doordash unable to deliver the gains. the move lower, adding to another rough month for the group. lyft leading the losses, down more than 12% in september. dan, lyft is your acronym. >> it's in there. and part of it is, we're going to talk about this later, i think at this point they just have to sell themselves. literally. as a standalone, it's not a business that's going to be profitable. so, i think the gig economy stocks -- >> why would buy them? >> a google, for the data. there's a whole list. if you are going to deploy robo-taxi, you need a brand. that's for another conversation. instacart breaking the way it did, if you are unprofitable, that's the story, back to late 2021, they got hit hard and getting hit again. let's move into uber.

one trader laying out a play on the name. mike khouw has the action. hey, mike. >> yeah, uber traded more than two times its average daily volume, calls outpaced puts by over two to one and the trade that caught my eye, the november 47 1/2 risk reversal, buying those calls. financed in part by selling the 37 1/2 puts. they could get long, down 16% or up at 47.5%. i think this is probably a replacement for equity. >> all right, go you go. for more -- there's the trade for you. for more "options action," be sure to tune into the full program, tomorrow night at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, the innk is not try yet, but writers and studios are putting pen to paper, nearing a deal to end the strike that has gone on for months. a top media analyst will join us next to lay out how media stocks

could react. plus, valero hitting all-time highs, so, can the neglige gh?rgy stock keep pumping hier we'll debate that when "fast money" returns.

welcome back, everybody, to "fast money." stocking dropping for a third straight day as treasury yields continue to rise. the dow down 370 points. the s&p off 1.6%. worst day since march. nasdaq leading the losses, down 1.8%. all three indexes closing at multi-month lows. how about that? check on some of the recent ipos. klaviyo, i pronounced it right, believe it or not, gaining 3% on its second day of trading. both arm and instacart below their opens, but they closed above those levels when all was said and done. encouraging development today in hollywood to tell you about. sources telling ing nbc that wrs are nearing an agreement to end

the strike. cnbc's julia boorstin has the latest. how close are the two to a deal? this has been talked about all day long. are we inching closer now? >> well, my understanding is that the talks are still ongoing right now. this is the second day of very productive talks. yesterday, i heard a lot of chatter that was very optimistic, and one of my sources said to me, gee, this is the first time i've heard optimism since the strike began on may 2nd. so, a lot of hope. people are also afraid to say anything too official, because they don't want to have anything that's said officially or publicly in any way impact the potential for there actually to be a deal right now. i would say, tyler, it feels like both sides are really eager to find a compromise there. some key sticking points, key issues they need to resolve, including how much the writers would be compensated around success in streaming. they seem to have some understanding that there would be a bonus for streaming success, but what exactly that

looks like we'll have to see. and then, tyler, this question of a.i. reportedly the alliance of studios has said they are fine in writers use a.i. in their work without that impacting their compensation, sort of use it as a brainstorming role, but the writers want protection for their content to make sure their content is not used to train a.i. we'll see how the studios respond to that. >> so, julia, what happened? what changed? >> i think time passed, tyler. i think both sides really understood that if they didn't come to an agreement in the next couple of weeks, it was possible that nothing would happen until the beginning of next year. the studios are seeing as their fall tv schedule impacted, but not having writers and actors around to promote their films is really having an impact on the box office. and they just want to get things resolved so they can really get things back to work and not have even more impact on the release schedule of films next year. the writers are the first -- the first group that needs to be

resolved, and after that, they need to agree with the screen actors guild, but the understand is, whatever deal they make with the writers could potentially create a template for an agreement with the actors. >> yeah, and with the actors, they have to deal with the nanny. >> yeah, julia, i have a question for you. whose benefit do you think it is to have the strike have gone on? i mean, both sides are feeling pain, which, i guess, brought them to the table. i don't know why they didn't come to the table, both sides, right at the beginning and avoid the pain for each of them, but here we are. who benefits now from it braggb dragging out longer? >> i don't think anyone. certainly the writers have never benefited from the strike happening and what they really want is to create a structure to make sure they are compensated. i think who has benefited the most, i would really rephrase that of who has been hurt the least. companies such as netflix, which have more international exposure, which can release new series at whatever cadence they want, can choose to promote old

shows that netflix has been resurfacing "suits," those are the ones that are best positioned. you can keep on doing production in many markets overseas. netflix has really been best positioned for this. and perhaps hurt the least, though i would say -- i would say no one is really winning from this strike scenario. >> all right, julia, thank you very much. let's get more on the stakes for hollywood from the senior media analyst. paul, good to see you. how much did this cost hollywood? how much did it cost the studios? >> well, the longer it goes on, the cost becomes greater, and the more profound the impact is on the bottom line. and certainly in our data, we saw that we had an amazing summer at the box office, meaning that people want to go to the theater, they also want to watch streaming, but you have to have new content to feed that machine. and i think that the longer this goes on and hopefully, this is very encouraging today, that if

the writers' strike can get resolved, it can be a template for sag-aftra, but it really, the cost right now is, in terms of what can it cost in the future if movies and television shows are not produced. the box office moves rather slowly, in other words, it takes a long time to get a movie written, produced and dis distributed and marketed, so, we have enough films in the pipeline until the end of the year and a little bit beyond that, but as has been said, without actors able to go out and market those films and promote them, that puts a damper on the potential box office. >> so, did the -- did the move of a couple of performers to either say they were going to maybe go back to work and produce, i'm thinking of bill maher, a couple of others in that boat, do you think that was the nudge that made the wga move

closer toward negotiations? >> it may have been, that's a great question, because i think as time goes on, just the pressure keeps mounting, and remember, this impacts people beyond the writers and the actors. those who work above and below the line in ancillary jobs that are related to movie and television production, so, it's being felt not just in the entertainment industry and in hollywood, but well beyond that, and worldwide, so, it's great if this can get resolved to an e equitable conclusion and it can lead to resolution of the actors' strike, as well. >> i don't mean to put words in julia's mouth or maybe not recalling them correctly, but it seems like she indicated that of all the producers, netflix may have emerged from this the least hurt. is theral one producer that is the most hurt here? >> well, i think that those who rely on brand new content and

not archival types of content, meaning movie theaters, really rely on brand new movies every week to bring people in, and as we all know, taylor swift has her concert film coming out, which is the music toll the exhibiters ears, theater owners ears, in mid-october, but i think it really is those movie studios who really want to get this back on track. streamers often have, you know, a huge library of older titles and older movies, but they also need brand new content, as well. series that were in production before the strikes, that have a new season coming up, they definitely want to get those things moving. hopefully this gets resolved sooner than later. >> i want to squeeze in one more quick question and one more quick answer. the news today that rupert murdoch is stepping aside to become chairman ameritus, among other things at fox. who got the better end of the 21st century fox deal? was it iger or mmurdoch?

because it looks like murdoch got the better end of it. >> i think that's part of it, but also, you know, there are many other factors involved in that. i don't know that i have a quick answer for you, tyler, on that. i just think that the bottom line is -- is that these media companies, they rely on talent, writers, actors, but the actors and writers rely on the studios, as well, so, look what happens when that all works in synch. you get something like barbenheimer. i don't know if i answered your question, but i think no question that this is great, if these strikes can be resolved, hopefully, you know, today or tomorrow, and maybe over the next month for the actors' strike. we hope. >> all right. paul, thank you very much. we appreciate it. karen, thoughts? >> yeah, so, i'm long netflix, i've been looking to buy some more. i bought some more a couple days ago, which was too early. i bought some more yesterday.

i think they're in sort of the pole position. regardless of how this gets resolved, when you think about the streaming wars and how much it's cost everybody and how everyone is rethinking it, except for netflix. they have the balance sheet, they have the content around the world. i mean -- sitting pretty. >> quick thought? >> yeah, tyler, i think, you know, dan mentioned this earlier about sort of being in a new regime and how inflation is going to be stronger for longer, and at the end of the day, all these strikes show that the power has shifted now to the employee from employer, and that's just something to look out for for the next, you know, on a secular dbasis. coming up, valero goes vroom. that trade and more when "fast money" returns. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this.

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>> as do i. they don't make refineries anymore, as it turns out. i don't want to get too in the weeds here, but crack spreads, which can how they make money, are in their favor right now. look at what's going on with diesel, the products, it made an all-time high today, as you said. and i think it has room to the upside. the energy space still works, tyler. >> all right. coming up, a major merger on the street. cisco buying splunk has got us thinking, who else should emergency? we'll play matchmaker next. more "fast money" in two. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform

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matchmaker. who should buy whom right now? dan, why don't you kick things off? >> karen just talked about netflix and their balance sheet and how they're winning certain aspects of the streaming game. i thisnk they should take a loo at spotify. you look at netflix as a company that is expected to have 30% gap e earnings growth. trades about 25 times. you look at their positioning, i think they should look at spot. and spot is a company that has 25% margins, look at these companies, they are kind of similar, right, in a lot of ways. if you think how the streaming wars are going, the idea of bundling things across a spectrum makes a lot of sense. so, to me, they get those 25% margins up towards their 40%, that's where netflix is or so. i think that would make a lot of sense, that combination. >> see spot run. what do you think, as a shareholder, would you vote in favor of that? >> i -- yeah, i guess. >> endorsement. >> didn't, you know -- wasn't right on my radar screen, but i

think it's interesting. >> think about who these guys -- >> they are competing with behemoths. this is how you bulk -- >> hugely powerful brands. that combination alone is pretty good. guy? you're next. >> so, i've spent time -- i don't know much about that, but boeing comes out, should buy spirit, spr. stock is trading 14 and change right now, i asked karen, who helps me a great deal on the show, what the value would be, enterprise plus cash, market cap $5 billion. boeing could do that like this. boeing is basically 85% of spirit's business. airbus is the other 11%, 12%, and sort of some rounding errors. you squeeze out airbus, you buy it on the cheap, to me, it makes a lot of sense. >> interesting. karen, you are looking more for a divorce. i don't mean to get personal here, sure that's not the case. what do you have in mind? >> just looking at one where

maybe they are like, maybe we shouldn't have done that. and i'm thinking of tapestry capri. looking where things are today versus august 10th, i think, when the deal was announced, so, consumers under a little bit more stress. the high end luxury stocks have also come under quite a bit of stress, and this was an all cash deal, $8 billion of debt they're going to take on, interest rates have moved, so, put all those three things together -- might not be so delighted this is a tight merger agreement, i don't see them getting out of that. >> any reaction on that one? >> i love their shoes, though. >> quickly this is the more you know -- we have to go crack. jimmy choo shoes, very narrow. back to you. >> all right, thank you. news flash. breaking news! up next, we have some final trades.

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i don't go until you wave your finger. you have to tell me. >> tell people who that is. that's nancy. >> nancy. she waves her finger. you can sit there -- >> it's okay. >> time for the final trade. michael, you first. >> implied volatility is very low. default risk is picking up. i don't really think you can like corporate credit here, so, underweight, short corporate credit. >> karen? >> yes, actually, i am. mine, we just talked about it. netflix, it's hard to step up and buy stocks, that's why i did it yesterday, but today would have been better. netflix, i think it's a winner. >> snap is getting -- it's getting down to a level where you almost have to take a shot, so bad it's good. let's wait and see how it acts

at eight bucks. >> tyler, great -- you know the term live dog? you know that term in sports? >> yeah. >> yeah, well, there's one tonight. i'm just putting it out there. mpc. marathon petroleum. >> thank you for having me. michael, good to have you with us. michael, good to have you with us. thanks for watching "fast money." jim cramer right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to educate and teach but to put it in context. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jim cramer. on a brutal day like this one where the dow tumbled 37