it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5." we begin with stocks trying to bounce back after the surge of yields and sky rocketing dollar. the clock is ticking on the big three in detroit with the talks on union leadership before more workers hit the picket line. a broader strike seemingly inevitable. no deal with hollywood studios and actors and writers as the strike to end until the

end of the year. and the iphone 15 is hitting the stage as it looks to slump the sagging sales. and microsoft looking to close out the deal with activision-blizzard. it is friday, september 22nd, 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. happy friday. we kick it off with the s&p and nasdaq on pace for the worst week since march. look at it right now. flat to fractionally higher. s&p is moving higher over the last hour. dow is flat. looking to open up five points lower. we are checking the bond market. yields hovering to decade yield highs.

the 10-year treasury and 5-year creeping close to 344.5%. and we are looking at oil. you can see the benchmark above $90 a barrel. .50% in pre-market. natural gas is making the biggest move to the upside up 1%. we have a news alert from washington, d.c. kristina partsinevelos is here with news for the chip sector. good morning. >> reporter: good morning. chip makers want a piece of the $53 billion chips act pie and they better not go to countries of concern like china, iran or russia. the commerce department releasing rules to build chips on american soil. companies must not expand manufacturing capacity beyond 5%

in these countries like russia and chinesa because the governmt says it is a nation al security risk. when they receive funding, they he have have to comply for a ten-year period. if any of these rules are violated, the department would clawback the money they were given. money that wasn't disbursed yet. $238 million of taxpayer dollars was awarded to eight r&d hubs in california to north carolina this week. this will be a while before the companies build plants in the united states or see the trail of money. the guardrails are in place and further adds for the department of commerce. they hired investment fund managers to sift through 100

full applications. now they have to monitor the activity that goes on abroad and tracking expansions at plants in china for example. no easy feat if you are sitting in a cubical in d.c. >> do you have any guardrails for these companies? >> reporter: the first is samsung or tsmc. they are seeking funding here in the united states. they were seeking funding in the united states and they he ave a strong presence in china. the firms already received waivers. they are allowed to continue doing business with china until october of 2023. we are almost hitting that mark soon. they may get extended for a while which defeats the purpose of the guardrails in the first

place if they are getting waivers from the department of commerce. this is still happening. this is the final rule for the commerce department. the funding is not expected to be disbursed until the end of the year or the spring of next year. the guardrails are not put in place until that happens. >> kristina partsinevelos with breaking news on the chips act. great to see you. time for the check on the over top stories. silvana henao is here. silvana. >> happy friday, frank. a lot of moving pieces today. first up is the clock is ticking toward the uaw deadline today for the serious progress for ford and gm and stellantis on contract negotiations for the 150,000 members. 13,000 are on strike currently. in a statement last night, gm has put five offers in front of

the uaw says it is now clear that the uaw leadership has always intended to cause months long disruption. uaw leadership needs to put the members ahead of the personal agendas. gm has put five offers on the table. and now no deal yet with the hollywood writers after both sides were closing in on agreement. taking part in the negotiations yesterday were a group of ceos including bob iger and david zaslav and donna langley. and house speaker kevin mccarthy is hitting a dead end.

sending house members home after not coming to agreement yesterday. they are preparing for a shutdown, frank. >> silvana, thank you very much. we will see you later on. turning back to the markets. looking at futures right now which are pointing to a mixed to higher open. surging treasury yields driving stocks to a lower level. morgan stanley says this could continue as investors are repositioning in tech and higher for longer narrative from the fed being a factor. the bank says it will scale back on outsized positions in the coming days. options dealers are hedging equity exposures. let's talk about this with seema shah. great to have you here. >> good morning. >> rising rates are having some impact on the market.

do you agree with the take from morgan stanley? >> i think the rising interest rates are pressuring equities. we have seen a 5% pullback in the s&p 500 since early this summer. we can see that most of the move is because of the valuation change. there is pressure coming from that. how long this is sustained is a different question because if you were to see any signs of economic slowdown coming and presidethe market were to reappraise, how far will the market go? you will see a pressure in bond yields and equities could turn around with the previous rally. >> after a couple of days of selling pressure on the nasdaq, it is the best performing index. do you think that selloff there when you talk about the nasdaq 100 or magnificent seven or mega cap tech stocks continues? >> they are facing more

challenging environment because if you did get a pull back in yields, this is a higher interest rate environment. this is known to be frothy. for an investor perspective, you have to think about the horizon. if you are a short-term horizon, there are caps for the magnificent seven. if you are looking beyond the next year or two and further beyond, you think of the a.i. story which will continue to push mega caps up over a longer period. >> you are saying that after a big p rally, investors are realizing they cannot have the best of both worlds. what do you mean by that? how do that influence your allocation? >> if you think about the hopes of a soft landing and if there is a soft landing, as the fed relayed this week, that means

interest rates are moving higher and sustaining at that level for longer. if you get a lowdown in economic dpr growth, you get a different situation for equities going forward. it doesn't look like it will rally and if it were to continue, it would be strong. we think this is going to be a range bound market. maybe you want to maintain some allocation to equities, but think about other areas of the market. >> seema shah, thank you very much. more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. first, we speak with alex karp on the future of military tech and real-world possibility for artificial intelligence. plus, more on the strikes rocking the big three and the

serious implications. later, we head to midtown manhattan for the launch of the iphone 15. apple faithful in china getting their hands on that new device. a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

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[ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." u.s. futures moving higher with the exception of the dow. nasdaq up .30%. s&p up fractionally.

let's see how europe is shaping up as its trading day is getting under way. we have arabile gumede with the early trading day. arabile, you are wearing black. you didn't tell me. the bromance is on shaky ground. >> i promise to tell you next time. it is my fault. let's get into the market action. it is not an all black day on the market. we are seeing red. cac 40 is the one we are looking at with ubisoft is moving higher in the trade which is 3% on the up with the microsoft and activision deal. cma in the uk saying there is an opening door with the restructured deal. it is helping to push things along. the ftse 100 is on the up. that is on the back of mining moving higher. so to on the retail front with ocado pulling up gains. the market is sitting in negative territory after the central bank frenzy yesterday. very interesting to note on that number that the bank of japan

decided to keep rates on hold today. the governor saying that we want to see inflation at the 2% mark before we move again. very interesting notion there. overall, europe is downbeat. >> arabile, thank you very much. arabile gumede live in the london newsroom. we turn attention back to the united states. palantir shares have been under pressure since rates were staying higher for longer. the software company is up more than 100% year to date. i sat down with alex karp in washington, d.c. to discuss his take from the recent senate a.i. summit. we discussed the work with the u.s. government in ukraine as president volodymyr zelenskyy visited the white house and president biden announced a new aid package for ukraine.

>> the most savvy population in the world. they have adopted military means that are in many ways what the rest of the world will do. lower-end hardware and high-end software. what they were able to do with drones and hardware is outperform a larger adversary by integrating the software. what does that mean for us? it means we have to think long and hard about how do we replicate the methodology for the next battle field. it is hard for us. some methods are different from us and they cost money. one of my focus as an individual and co-founder of the leading

software and non-military provider in the world, meaning we produce commercial products is to talk to people in the defense department and talk to people and congress and house and explain as best i can the way forward will look different from the past. we have structure advantages. >> turning attention back to the u.s., in the beginning of the year, the a.i. trade has dominated the market. the magnificent seven like nvidia and alphabet. when you look at the broader markets, how much more runway does a.i. have? is there a definite need for it? >> i'm only an investor in one company. if i were there, i would ask

what tangible value does this create for companies? tangible being it can be quantified both in quality for revenue. how do it effect the top line and margins? kwquantitative value. how does it impact the structure? are we able to pivot when there is an emergency and pivot with an advantage? is there a delta between us and the people we compete against and does this give us a local or national or international advantage with the people in the countries? if you can answer those questions as yes, then the companies that produce that are going to do very, very well. you also have to look at the negative. if the broad defined as a.i. with machine learning and al

algorithms cannot answer the question he of what value did it create for us and how quickly, then, obviously, over time those companies are less valuable. it is going back to the basics. it is hard for investors and many investors are trained with a playbook. that playbook is thin product and thick sales force. they have been trained as early stage companies will disrupt later stage companies. what you find in this revolution is thick product and agile ability and thin sales force and no playbook will massively out perform everyone else. >> paradigm shift. >> paradigm shift. once that shift changes, the rules and ability to say okay,

ths will get you in trouble. i'm saying long term of two-to-three years. >> it is a long-term story with a.i. >> there will be effects every year which is harder to quantify. year over year, there will be big winners between 18 months to 24 months. >> palantir says the demand for the focused software for p.e. firms and helping funds spiked in the aftermath of silicon valley bank. ahead on oprah winfrey's honestly is sinking ww stock. we will have more after this break. meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company,

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that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ well come back to "worldwid exchange." the consumer stat is $12.2 billion. that is how much people are expected to spend on halloween candy and decorations. last year's record was $10.6 billion. wednesday addams is one of the popular costumes. could this help the struggling sector? we have dom chu with the latest on sectornomics.

>> some of you are going to the halloween trade and spending on the laundry and food and packaged items and what not. if you look at the consumer staples trade in 2023, it has been a massive under performer. the s&p 500 is up 13%, but the consumer staples sector is widening. it is down 5.5% so far this year. one of the reasons why is the sell repre relative attractiveness. it has been more attractive for these guys because of lower treasury yields. as yeeields rise, the luster cos off. 52-week lows with target and dollar general and estee lauder hitting 52-week lows over the

last week or so. the outperformers with better execution and pricing power. beer and alcohol up 25% this year. costco is up 22%. church and dwight up 18%. frank, back to you. >> you mentioned pricing power. is that the common peoptheme foe sector? they sell things that people need as opposed to want? >> it is interesting. target and walmart do the same type of thing and moving in opposite directions. this is very much about execution and strategy as well. the valuation we see for the names. keep in mind the dividends for the players out here is the reason why some people overlook those things. maybe not as much of a focus. >> you help with the spending on

costumes. >> i purchased candy. i don't dress up. i buy a lot of candy. my kids dress up. >> a fun halloween. dom chu. thank you. one week away from the delivering alpha investor s summit. on october 12th, we will have leaders to help you balance risk with returns. scan the qr code for visit cnbcevents.com/deliveringalpha for more. we'll be back after this. >> announcer: sectornomics is presented by sector spdr etfs.

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contract talks. phil lebeau has the latest for us. and apple's latest version of the iphone hitting store shelves as they look to excite investors with the new release. it is friday, september 22nd. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc.

good morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's start your day with the half hour with the check on u.s. stock futures. right now, we're seeing pretty much a positive movement when it comes to futures. dow dipping in the negative territory slightly. nasdaq up higher. s&p up higher as well right now. stocks are trying to stage a comeback with the indices on the worst pace since march. we are looking at the bond market as well with the benchmark 10-year treasury at 4.47%. richard bernstein advisors on "fast money" yesterday forecasting 5% before year ends. elevated 2-year treasury at 5 anan p an. -- 5.13%. and the benchmark crude showing

$94 a barrel. brent crude up at t$93. the clock is ticking to the uaw deadline today for the serious progress from ford, gm and stellantis on contract negotiations for the uaw's 150,000 u.s. members. now 13,000 members are on strike since the walkouts last friday. phil lebeau is joining us from outside the ford plant in wayne, michigan. phil, good morning. >> reporter: frank, we are expecting more strike locations later on today. let's talk about the developments from overnight. we will get an update from the uaw later on this morning. shawn fain is expected to talk on facebook live, his chosen

me method, he is expected to give more strike locations. 12:00 p.m. eastern is when new walkouts begin. whether it is one or two or three plants is yet to be seen. new internal messages were leaked yesterday and this confirms what people have been expecting in detroit for some time with regards to the uaw dragging out the process. not wanting to get a contract resolved. one message from the uaw member to another is if we can keep them wounded for months, they don't know what to do. "they" being the auto mmakers. gm releasing a statement to the leaked messages, it is now clear the uaw leadership has always intended to cause months long disruption regardless of harm it

causes members and community. take a look at the hourly cost for automakers. the big three against the foreign automakers in the u.s. already a big gap. that is expected to widen. if the big three offer a 20% raise at least is accepted by the uaw. as you look at shares of gm, ford and stellantis, remember, we will hear from the uaw president later on this morning. frank. >> the negotiations are getting more contentious. give us a sense how damaging are the leaked messages in the process? >> reporter: damaging, no doubt about that. everybody we talked with who is familiar with the process of the negotiations has said for some time these have not been the usual negotiations. there have been animosity is not the right word, but contentious.

the feeling from the automakers and those close to the automaker negotiations is the uaw wants to drag this out. the longer they push this, the more they will get and the better that it is for them. from the big three, these messages show what are we doing negotiating? if this is how you feel, let's call it off and get back to the table when you want serious talks. >> all right. very big day for the negotiation. we are waiting for the facebook live message from the uaw president. phil, thank you. let's talk more about the impact of the uaw. we have jimmy pethokoukis from the american enterprise institute and the author of "the conservative futurist." that is coming out on october 3rd. jimmy, we are waiting for the advanced copy.

can't wait to see it. good morning. thank you for being here. let's jump into it. you have new estimates on the impact on gdp of the full blown uaw strike. that is 150,000 members walking off the job and striking. gi give us a sense of the numbers and how much impact to the gdp? >> the way to look at this is the strike in a matter of weeks or months and maybe it takes off .10 of quarterly gdp annualized. it is like the government shutdown. you see the estimates on the economy. the assumption is you get it back on the other side. what we are talking about is an extraordinarily lengthy strike, i'm not sure the estimate of 10% makes sense. now you are talking about

extended period of slower growth and how you view that is do you think we're in the economy which is headed to a very soft landing or something else? if you think it is something else, this is not what the economy needs. >> we are showing how much the auto workers make per hour compared to tesla. they are on track for a double-digit raise once it this is resolved. are you worried about the wage inflation overall? >> we are in a period of inflation. i understand many people are very quick to call that battle won, but we'll see. i just can't help but think what is the uaw thinking? we heard about the emails. what is the incentive for the uaw and shawn fain to settle?

president biden is saying the energy transition has to happen. the big three have to transition. this is also a president when he was vice president was involved in bailing out the automakers and saying they were too big to fail like the banks. if i'm the uaw, the transition has to happen and the government will not let the automakers fail. if there is a real problem here, bigger subsidies for electric vehicles. you will not let the companies fail. we can push as hard as we want given that context. i think the essentials are poorly aligned here for a short strike. >> you don't seem surprised this has got even to be contentious and drawn out? you are saying the auto workers have most of the chips in their favor? >> what do they fundamentally believe? they believe that this

transition, you know, could cost jobs if the cars are simplers. they view it as an existential risk. they look at automakers who supposedly have to make the transition and there's no way given what we saw during the great recession that the government will let these companies fail and i feel like let's push this thing and see what we can get. that's what they're doing. you saw that in the emails. >> interesting point. jimmy pethokoukis, always great to see you. looking forward to your book. have a great day and great weekend. >> to you as well, frank. turning to apple theand the latest iphone hitting store shelves. here is a look at beijing overnight. this comes as the tech giant sees slumming sales. we have steve kovach outside in

new york city for the lalaunch. >> reporter: people are lining up, frank. people are snaking around. i got here before 5:00 a.m. there is a line most of the way down the block around the corner on 58th street here. doors will open at 8:00 a.m. the question going into the launch, frank, is the iphone 15 pro. we know apple is facing the fourths fourth quarter in a row of declining sales. it needs people to buy up the pro phones to boost revenue to get apple the back to the top line growth. they had such trouble making iphone 14 pros with the shutdowns in china. now apple puts the best technology and features into the top end of the phone and putting them in the regular phones the

follow year. early signs with the pre-order data showing long wait times for the pro phones here in the u.s. that's a good early signal that demand is strong. we have to wait in a couple of weeks when apple reports for the september quarter and how well it performed, frank. >> you mentioned the comments on this. do you think this is going to move the needle for hardware sales or other wearables? >> reporter: there are two apple watches. mine were updates from a year ago. apple likes to position the apple watch as most users don't have an applear apple twatch. they see new users as the new market there. another minor update with m smaller features.

the big thing is, frank, the iphone is the most important product. that is what people are watching. >> steve, i'm amazed people are lining up. can't you order it and have it sent to your house? do people say they want the more expensive phone or cheaper phone or air pods? >> reporter: i have not talked to people in line yet. the story with iphone upgrades is people hang on to their phones longer than they used to. no one is upgrading every year. the likely span is three-to-five years. some are moving from 11 or 12 up to the 15. to your point, people are lining up. it has been 16 years since the first iphone launch and people still line up outside the store.

people here with folding chairs. i was here before 5:00 a.m. and the line is already down the block. >> you played with the new one. is there a feature you are excited about? >> reporter: the casing on the pros are nice. it is made from titanium instead of steel. it does feel a lot nicer. is it worth upgrading from last year's phone to get titanium? probably not. that max phone has the better camera feature. it can zoom better than the other three phones in the lineup. apple is betting the camera and the titan ium is hoping the exta features is worth it for the people to spend the extra $100 from a year ago. >> it is a status symbol. i have a phone with a button on

it. i'm never going to wait in that line. apple shares up .50%. steve, great to see you. enjoy it. coming up on "worldwide exchange," overseas regulators are opening the door for microsoft to move forward with the takeover of activision. both stocks are surging. we have the details coming up when "worldwide exchange" returns.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the morning call sheet.

ubs issuing square pace the buy rating. the company is taking the right steps to position itself for revenue growth through 2025 as it expands deeper into international markets. shares of square sfpace up 2%. and boeing is moving fto a hold. boeing may suffer to a degree. shares are down in the pre-market. ab bernstein moving wayfair to firm. the move is a technical call given the revenue growth. it notes the stock has had a strong year to date and sees further upside potential. shares of wayfair up 2.25%. time now for the global briefing. we start with the japan central

bank maintaining the loose policy leaving rates unchanged. reuters reporting that tesla is building a storage facility for batteries in india. officials are seeking incentives to build that factory. the anti-trust regulator saying the uk regulator is opening the door to the deal being cleared for microsoft's purchase of activision. selling to ubisoft addresses the previous concerns. microsoft saying it is encouraged by the positive development from the cma. shares of all three companies in the deal are moving higher right now. ahead, we have the one word that every investor needs to know today and why the next guest says better days could be ahead for the fourth quarter. as we head to break, cnbc is

celebrating hispanic heritage. here is ipsy co-founder. >> we have been through a lot in our countries. high inflation, our governments have changed a lot and many times entrepreneurship is a necessity because we can't get a job in latin america. i would say my advice is go for it. go for it like your parents did and grandparents did back home. once you make it, lift somebody else up. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking

from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. at ameriprise financial, our advice is personalized, based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

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we are watching -- weight watchers and oprah winfrey likes the program over ozempic. weight watchers is trying to rebound in the pre-market. the u.s. commerce department revealing new rules on chip makers. research ventures and compliance once companies receive government funding. striking writers in hollywood with ceos are leaving two days of negotiations without a deal. both parties are expected to return to the bargaining table today. bob iger's talks to sell abc and other disney is

overexaggerated. disney up in the pre-market right now .50%. kevin mccarthy sending house members home for the weekend after failing to come to a deal yesterday. he said to prepare for a shutdown next week. and dave mccormick is launching another bid for senate in pennsylvania in what could be the most expensive and closely watched race. here is what to watch on the data front. flash pmi and flash services pmi. we have several fed speeches on tap including lisa cook and susan collins and san francisco president mary daly and neel kashkari. we will watch the auto workers deadline for serious progress and talks with the big three automakers and apple's iphone 15 officially goes on sale today.

steve kovach live in new york with the latest. and we have the s&p and nasdaq with the biggest weekly decline since march. our next guest says more pressure is likely ahead. there is potential for markets to pull out of the skid. sam stovall at cfra is here with us. great to have you here. give us a sense how we pull out of the skid with rate pressure and the dollar right now moving 2% higher over the last month with technical indicators showing the golden cross that we could see a higher move higher for the dollar. >> frank, you have to have additional concerns added to the equation for share prices to decline. as of last night, s&p moved into a pullback which is a decline of

5% to 10%. i target the 4,200 on the s&p as the bouncing point because it represents the level and it was always the high in march of this year. it represents a floor that might be able to be optimistic for investors. >> all of that, sam, what is the wex word of the day? >> the word of the day is countdown. investors are counting down the end of the seasonal weakness period which starts in august and ends the first week of october. october has 35% more volatility than the other 11 months of the year. investors are counting down the q3 earnings period which right now is expected to show a decline of less than 1%. 54 of the last 56 quarters have had results exceed end of quarter estimates. countdown to the fed rate cycle.

major banks signalled they are ending the rate tightening program. investors are counting down when the fed will do the same. finally, traditionally markets bounce once the fed has paused and investors anticipate the next move which would be a cut in rates. >> you said cut. i think you were talking about the shutdown. the shutdowns don't hurt the market, but get a bounce. this may be a different environment with the u.s. credit rating downgrading. >> i agree with the person you are quoting in that we had 20 government shutdowns since 1976. in the week before the shutdown, the average change was a minus 0.4% for the s&p. it was a gain of 0.1%.

basically, it is more eof a concern for tourists than traders. >> the pick of the day with the rising rates. it is an et etf. >> they look at low free cash flow and look to the high dividend yield. we are looking at an etf which beaten the benchmark in the five-year period which yields more than the 10-year note. >> sam, thank you. enjoy your weekend. looking at futures right now. moving higher in the last hour. the dow would open up 23 points higher. in the red when we started the show. the s&p higher. the nasdaq is the biggest move to the upside. reversing the trend the last two

days since the fed indicated higher for longer. that will do it for us. enjoy your friday. "squawk box" is coming up next. thank you for watching. so we use gametime. gametime checks ticket prices in real-time and finds you all the best last minute deals. we got our seats twenty minutes ago for sixty percent off! last minute tickets at the best price, in seconds. download gametime now! nice footwork. at theman, you're lucky,conds. watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough.

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good morning. u.s. government moving closer to a shutdown. a key procedural vote failed again in the house yesterday. the leadership sent the chamber into recess for the weekend. we take you live to washington where nothing is happening. and auto worker showdown. shawn fain says they will add more to the picket lines if substantial progress is not made. after two days of talks, still no deal with the writers

and hollywood studios. we have the latest. it is friday, september 22nd, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. it is friday. a lot of people glad we made it to this part of the week. not just us, but investors at this point maybe done with the week. >> terrible day yesterday. >> s&p had the worst day since march. if you looking at the week to date losses, the dow with modest advances. up 21. nasdaq up by 64. if you are talking week-to-date,

s&p is