good friday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. citi says expect maybe another rate hike in november. the chief economist will tell us why in a moment. the uaw's next deadline is one hour away. more walkouts appear to be on the way. we're live in detroit next. big upgrade for energy from jpm this morning. we'll talk about the bull case on oil getting maybe to 150. >> topping the tape for us this morning is the market showing signs of being oversold? that's what cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli is

looking at this morning. we believe these early indications have bounced, is it showing signs of stability? >> it's tentative. being oversold, which is just a measure of how far and fast the market has gone down relative to its trend is just one of those ingredients. it is a precondition for maybe finding our footing. after yesterday's close, the s&p 500 was basically oversold as it had been back toward march. we did have trading lows. i still think you'll need to see bond yields sustainably calm down a little bit. we can't have this sense we have this disorderly rise in yields. the market is trying to reckon what that means to me for the economy. i don't think it's a straight compute the valuation of equities rel to bonds. it's more can we handle what rates are throwing at the economy. the s&p 500 down 6% from its high, peak to trough yesterday. the average stock down 8% to 10%. it's getting toward a proper correction. there's downside in the s&p,

another 3%, 4%, something like that. i think my concern, the thing i'm asking myself is, is everyone taking too much comfort in the fact it's a normal, seasonal turbulent period so there we don't have to get scared? sometimes you need people to get scared to get a low. >> is it maybe trying to sniff out some trouble? >> maybe in a preliminary way. i think actually you've been able to take some heart in how credit has been sturdy. >> up until now. >> yeah. i think that you're definitely -- you almost want to see it soften up a little bit to say there's no -- there's sense out there there's nowhere to hide. again, it's a little delicate because if you see credit spreads really blowing out, that's going to mean there is more of an issue. that means you've had moderation

and valuation over the last few weeks, which takes them off the boil. you've had the s&p 500 go from almost 20 times forward earnings down 18. you've had the equal weighted below 15 times. if you earnings don't come through, none of that matters. for us, it's what we're willing to pay for each dollar. >> the economy seems relatively resilient. we saw that with gains and we're getting signals from the credit market things may be shaky. broadly speaking, historically speaking, they're doing just fine. >> in terms of what we can observe, most of it is reassuring. i still think the market is correct to at least ask the question, is this really going to bring those lagged effects to the fore in terms of what the rates have done for parts of the economy. and the fed's willingness to effectively say, we don't really know how restrictive rates are at the short end because we don't really know what the neutral rate. all stuff powell was saying on wednesday sounds to the market like they're going to just need

to see the evidence in the slowing economy to know when they're restrictive enough. whether that's true or not, whether the picture changed in terms of the fed's path, that's the way the market took it. >> for those worried about earnings season, we made our way through conference season. was that corporate's opportunity to warn us about trouble or are they willing to surprise us? >> no. i think it was largely a bullet dodged. yes, it should have been the place -- i've often said, that's why september has a little bit of an undercurrent of weakness is because you have this deferred update of earnings expectations, literally the summer slow. when people come back in say, what do we really have here? that's when the sights turn to next year's numbers. if you have that chance to update, so far it looks okay. the reaction to last earnings season wasn't that encouraging, really. it was a shrug. >> the updates aren't always numbers. sometimes it's just more reading between -- >> color. >> yeah, color and that can be

tricky to navigate as well. let's take a closer look at what this week's fed decisions means for the market. we heard from boston fed president susan collins saying further tightening certainly isn't off the table. predicting rates could have to stay higher for longer than previously expected. that's in line with our next guest's thinking. sees another hike ahead in november with no rate cuts in sight at least until deep into 2024. joining at post 9, andrew holenhorst. i have to ask you because on twitter/x early today saying most of the street isn't expecting a hike in november. what gives you that confidence? you seem more in line with fed officials and why do you think that seems dissimilar from a lot of your peers? >> i think it goes back to what we were talking about. the idea the economy is proving to be very resilient. what the fed indicated they will

do is keep financial conditions tight. the issue they'll have if they don't hike in november, maybe they can do it in september, they indicated in their median dot plot they're going to hike another 25 basis points. if they don't follow through with that hike, the markets will ask the question, is this fed really serious about keeping rates higher for longer? even though it's inconsistent with their guidance, markets say, if they don't hike in november, maybe the next move will be a cut. that's the risk they have. that just biases them to doing that final hike. it's on the margin, does that affect the economy? 25 basis points isn't going to be determinative for the economy. >> it feels like for the past year or two the market and strategists have been saying to themselves, is it time to fight the fed now? is it not time? why do you feel there's been such a back and forth in regards to going along with what the fed is communicating versus, you know, what, i have my own data, i'm looking at things and this

is the way it's going to be? >> one, the fed has only slowly adjusted to the idea that inflation was higher, it would need to come and fight that inflation with higher interest rates. as the fed was adjusting up those expectations, the market was adjusting those expectations along with them, we had this slow and steady rise in interest rates. then you also have the issue there's a question about where is the neutral interest rate? how high do interest rates need to get to slow the economy down sufficiently? we've seen in the past is once the fed raised rates 100 basis points, 200 basis points, 300 basis points, you would have seen that slowing. there was an expectation the economy would turn over. the inflation was going to come down and the fed would be cutting rates. you keep seeing that priced into the market. we're finally at the place where you see resilient economy and inflation is staying a little above 2%. that suggests rates may stay higher for longer. >> i wonder what you would have to see roll over to make you change your view? would it be shelter or energy or claims or real disposable income

or something else? >> one thing we learned this week is it's not just about inflation for the fed here. it's about the real economy, the strength of the real economy, and the tightness of the labor market. jobless claims, i think that's a key variable. we saw that fall lower this week. that's just telling us it's a very tight labor market. >> you're confident in the quality of that data? >> you watch that week to week. try to put a moving average through it. if you look at that moving average, it's low also. >> you don't think the fed can bring down inflation without creating some sort of a recession? the soft landing, despite comments about that being a wider possibility, you think this is a really difficult path to tread? >> for the country, i would love if i'm wrong on this. the weight of historical evidence is you need to bring the unemployment rate higher, you need to slow down the economy, have a recession to bring inflation down. i think that's still the most likely case. >> and in terms of just cuts in the future, if we do get a

recession, how far into the future do you see that as being a possibility? do you really see higher for longer throughout a recession or do you think immediately they'll start to turn and do more easing? sdwluns we see enough weakness in the economy, i think that's what powell indicated, if the committee is confident that the economy is slowing and inflation is coming down, then they'll be open to cutting interest rates. when he we see those interest rates moving higher, job creation falling to zero or negative, then you can start to think about those cuts. very importantly what powell indicated is he will not mechanically cut rates just because inflation is looking softer. we've had some softer inflation prints. i think that's part of what the market is reacting to here. the idea you can have a few months of softer core inflation. that's not going to be enough to get the fed to cut. they really need to see clear, convincing evidence that the economy is slowing. >> finally, you know, cook gave this speech this morning about a.i. she does say trying to predict productivity in the past has been difficult. but she does say that because

this time may be different, we may have a head start because a.i. is deployed in a world with so much i.t. already in place. does that make it -- is that going to help us at all? >> it could. if you look back to the 1990s, you have a ten-year period when productivity growth ran one percentage growth stronger year after year. that's increasing supply side capacity. that's disinflationary. that would be a great outcome for the economy. can we be confident that will happen? we have to wait and see and watch the data. >> bill ackman's caveat to his tweet, unless a.i. saves us all. i don't know if we should bank on that. in the meantime, we'll listen to you. we continue to monitor the uaw strike. new updates within the last hour. gm and stellantis employees planning to walk out of additional plants at noon eastern time. phil lebeau is back with us. good morning. >> good morning, carl. we are on our way to one of the parts and distribution centers for gm and stellantis that will see workers striking as of noon.

let me explain exactly what the uaw called for this morning. gm and stellantis have 38 parts and distribution centers located in 20 states around the country. employing more than 5600 uaw members. those plants -- i shouldn't say plants. distribution sters, those workers will walk off the job at noon in explaining the rationale for further strikes, shawn fain said stellantis and gm need serious pushing. by comparison, if you take a look at shares of ford, he noted in his facebook live presentation, there is real progress being made with ford. ford issuing a statement, although we are making progress in some areas, we still have significant gaps to close on the key economic issues. so, again, you've got 38 new

locations where uaw members are walking off the job in about 45 minutes. for gm and stellantis, this is going to put real pressure on their ability to supply parts to their manufacturing facilities, to their dealers. this is really hits -- how they're going to go through the manufacturing process over the weeks to come. >> phil, in oeshg straitsing the strikes this way by having one domino and then another domino and another domino, how does that affectuate a quicker change or does it? do they continue to keep leverage and continue to ensure they come back to the negotiating table? if not, there's another domino that could fall? >> two things. it makes it challenging for gm, ford and stellantis to continue

their operation. doesn't make it impossible but it makes it more challenging. in the process, it ratchets up the pressure on them to make further concessions. and you have to also remember that for the uaw, part of this is not just putting pressure on ford, gm and stellantis, but also to rally their members. if they call every so often another strike, every time they call a strike, that galvanizes the membership. they sit there and they say, yep, we're putting further pressure on our respective company we work for. so, that's the whole strategy here as opposed to shutting down an entire automaker all at one time. >> phil, you've already done so much work this morning. we're just getting started. we'll talk soon again, i'm sure. phil lebeau again on the uaw strike. meantime, jpmorgan turning bullish on energy globally after the recent pullback. why they say now is the time to buy. plus, a day after announcing

layoffs, deere gets its second downgrade of the week. we'll get to those of those calls next. is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

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take a look at shares of alibaba, up 4.6% that the logistics will file for a hong kong ipo next week. that stock flat on the year thanks to today's almost 5% gain. bull calls on global oil today grabbing our attention. jpmorgan upgrades global equities to overweight. says the upside risk could be $150 a barrel in the near to medium term. maybe $100 for longer term. hbc forecasting $90 in q4. regardless, the call is boosting brent after yesterday's dip and sets up futures for their first necktive week in four. joining us is our own pippa stevens. they also make the point that the equities haven't kept pace with what commodities have done. >> that's right.

we've seen a decoupling how energy equities and oil itself have performed. when you look year-to-date that doesn't tell the whole story. last year we saw outperformance from the with equities while oil lagged. you do have to pick your starting day when you look at how they perform. jpmorgan is saying that underinvestment means we'll see massive supply deficit in coming years through 2030. essentially in prior decades, money was cheap and there was momentum behind hydrocarbons so capital was flowing into the space. they were seeing new production. that is no longer true. they say that is lifting the tail end of the curve, meaning future prices north of $80, they see it stabilizing around $100 per barrel but we could get up to $150 per barrel. also opec is playing an ever more important role here. what jpmorgan says is saudi arabia essenpecially is going t try to manage prices not only on the downside but also on the

upside so if we do start to get prices above $120, $130, up to $150, they believe saudi arabia will bring production back online because you don't want $150 because at a certain point we see demand destruction. what jpmorgan is saying is prices are higher for longer with saudi arabia as the key factor here. >> it's interesting, pippa. they say $120 a barrel would not be demand destructive as it's in line with historical prices and basically the economy is used to it. but $150 is a different story? >> that's right. $100 is no longer what it used to be. that used to be the threshold where demand destruction would kick in. but with tandem of inflation, jpmorgan says at $110, $120 oil, we'll be fine, and consumers will continue to pay that, businesses will continue to pay that. north of $120, that's when that narrative could start to shift. demand destruction is

notoriously very difficult to predict. with so many factors at play, if you have one major storm that knocks out production, things can change quickly. essentially the bottom line is higher for longer. >> we've seen some aggressive calls from them before. didn't work out last time. we'll see if it works out better in this cycle. pippa stevens, thanks. let's turn to deere following further. noted unit sales are down along with industry trends, some used inventories starting to pile up at dealers. seema mody has more on that and job cuts as well. >> like apple and nvidia, john deere faces a similar issue in that it's had such a strong growth story for so long. the minute the market picks up on some type of softness, it's being met with a strong reaction. two major downgrades. the latest reports on large

combine and agriculture tractor sales show sales are down, but just slightly over the past month and over the past year. there's also data that shows what demand looks like across the world right now. some softness in key market like brazil, germany where we see a deceleration. interestingly enough, the u.s. market is holding up pretty well despite the sharp drawback we've seen in agriculture commodity prices like corn, soybean and wheat. even despite the continuation of the russia/ukraine war are down significantly. >> how much of an interplay do those prices have with the appetite to purchase for farm equipment? is it as directly as correlated as one might think? >> there's a strong correlation between price of crops and farmer income. if they feel good about prices moving higher, they're more willing to spend money on large agricultural equipment, which

cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. there's also a farm bill expected to be renewed some time this fall, although senators right now are prioritizing the looming government shutdown. that farm bill is important because, one, it provides subsidies to farmers that they can use to make those big purchases and also insurance at times when weather, we see disruptions take a role, it can help farmers feel more comfortable. >> year-to-date cat versus deere, cat outperforming due to actual construction, infrastructure act. >> yeah. the tailwinds from the chips act and infrastructure act and construction in general holding up a bit better than the agricultural economy that's helping a company like caterpillar and has exposure to oil and energy that deere doesn't have as much. that's playing into the stock differential we're seeing this year. >> idiosyncratic differences, thank you. media stocks higher over the past few sessions on the hopes

that hollywood writers would come to an end of their strike. negotiations continue today. we have the latest. watch etsy as well. piper says a.i. may be able to help it crush the holiday quarter. target of $126, implies 96% upside. the stock a far cry from 2021 highs.

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know. bernstein says the worst losses may be behind wayfair. they upgrade to market perform. they cite improved revenue growth and margins. we should note the stock is already up 85% this year. i think the title of the report, leslie, is sofa so good. >> i saw your tweet about it being a dad joke. >> they're in full force at bernstein. >> i feel like there's an underground economy of puny analyst comments. we should do an award. european markets set to close in a moment with the story abroad. the bank of japan's decision to leave rates unchanged. maintaining of japan's ultraloose policy sinking the yen further this morning. now down double digits against the dollar year to date. yen at a ten-month low while the dollar is at its highest level since march. opposing policies here. interesting, this was widely telegraphed, widely expected but it comes amid hawkish policy in the u.s. tight range today but close to the highs of the session. let's get a news update.

>> carl, good morning. the justice department unsealed the indictment charging senator bob menendez minutes ago. he faces three federal conspiracy charges along with his wife and three people described as new jersey associates and businessmen. the indictment alleges menendez received hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes, including gold bars and cash and used his influence to enrich the businessmen and egyptian government. parts of the east coast are bracing for the impact of a tropical storm this weekend. the storm system is off the coast of south and north carolina today. forecasters expect it will strengthen and make landfall in the carolinas before moving north towards maryland and new jersey. meteorologists say the unnamed storm could dump up to 7 inches of rain in some areas. and india's moon mission is running into some trouble. the country's space agency says it is having issues trying to wake up its lunar lander and

rover. they run on solar power and needed to take a nap of sorts to charge their batteries before they could begin exploring the lunary south pole. still to come, former fed governor randy kroszner will join us next on why it's going to be hard to avoid a hard landing. cnbc celebrating hispanic heritage. we are sharing the stories of influential hispanic business leaders like this one. >> we've been through a lot in our countries. high inflation, our governments have changed a lot. many times entrepreneurship is a necessity because we can't get a job in latin america. i would say my advice is just go for it. just go for it like maybe your parents did and grandparents did back home. once you make it, lift somebody else up. you know doug, ever since switching to workday you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars?

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apple in focus as iphone 15 goes on sale. apple is trying to avoid its fourth quarter of declining sales in a row. while the street is pointing to extended wait times maybe a sign of strong demand, ubs looking at other sales data out of china that shows demand is weaker than a year ago. stock saw 10% off its 52-week high. there's been obviously some pressure in mega cap tech. certainly the reviews on the 15 have been pretty positive, depending on what model you're currently using. >> the reviews have been good. the concerns about china, they're there. i don't know how much of that is already baked into the stock and given the potential for the upgrade cycle. and as steve kovac pointed out, the lines are longs. i don't know if those are longs i would analogize to the road show where there were a lot of demand and then off to the races and fizzled out. we'll see if it's true demand or first day, early adapters.

>> speaking of mega cap tech, microsoft and activision finally close to clearing that final hurdle that prevented the $69 deal from closing. we'll get details next. delivering alpha is less than a week away. september 28th in new york city. scan that qr code or visit cnbcevents.com/deliveringalpha.

welcome back. let's dig into this week's ed decision. our next guest served as fed governor and says we may not need to raise rates any further from here, making the case it will be hard to avoid an economic slowdown next year as inflation starts to come down. joining us former fed governor randy kroszner. thank you for being here. is it binary, is it -- if you raise rates, you're definitely going to have a hard landing? if you don't raise rates, you'll avoid it? or is it a bit more complex than

that? >> much more complex than that. i wish it were so straightforward. the fed wishes it were so straightforward. whether they raise rates a quarter percentage point or not, that's not going to make or break the u.s. economy. if it does, we're in a lot more trouble. so, you know, we're at a relatively high level compared with the recent past. and we're now in a positive territory, that positive real rate territory that is adjusting for inflation. rates have turned positive. they've been negative from before. we're now seeing real wage growth, which is great for workers. but that likely means less demand from the -- from the employers because it's relatively more expensive to employ people. i think with the lags, it's going to be really difficult to bring inflation down sustainably without having a substantial slowdown, possibly recession. not necessarily recession. that's why i call it a hardish

landing. not a hard landing, not a soft or softish landing but a hardish landing. >> somewhere in the middlish, perhaps. susan collins this morning said there's a wider path, which is kind of in conflict with what you believe. >> they become much more sanguin about the possibility of a softish landing. i don't dismiss that. i'm not saying it's not possible. the challenge is we've never seen that before. it is conceivable this could happen. everything has to go right. we have to have inflation expectations stay well anchored, we have to avoid any major geopolitical shocks. gosh, i think just looking forward, it's going to be hard to say everything will go exactly right. >> it kind of reminds me of that nice piece this week where they talked about 95. i think it was in the journal. and how kind of -- as in the words of blinder, nothing bad happened, right? i guess that's what we're looking forward to happen again.

>> yeah. that's why i don't dismiss it. it doesn't seem likely to me that everything is going to work, whether it's in asia or russia or in the middle east or potentially elsewhere. we're not going to get some sort of shock from there. and there's a lot of political shocks potentially in many countries around the world over the next few years. collins this morning brought up the point about savings drawdowns. and i know some bank ceos have talked about consumers being willing to entertain the idea of borrowing more at this stage. do you think that's going to mean the economy does become more rate hike sensitive than it has in the past? >> to the extent that individuals and households are borrowing more at current rates, it certainly does make more interest rate sensitive. one of the challenges to the fed, when interest rates were so slow a couple of years ago, everybody refinanced into 30-year fixed rate mortgages so they can raise rates as high as they want. but if people aren't moving,

they aren't experiencing those higher rates. more people will move over time. that's one of the challenges if the unemployment rate starts to move up, people are more likely to move, the supply of houses will come onto the market, that might put downward pressure on houses. you could get a very difficult situation there that makes it more likely for a hardish type of landing. >> you think the market reaction to the fed has been so strong, they may not need to raise rates, that the market itself will basically take care of it? >> we finally saw strong reaction for the market. i think the fed has been clear they'll raise rates to around the level they're at and keep them there for a long time. the market seems to have been expecting, we won't take the fed seriously. they've cut before. in the old days, the m metaforewas, you take the punch

bowl away when the party starts going. the fed is committed to that because the last time they didn't take the punch bowl away when the party got going, late '70s, early '80s, when inflation is as high as it has been the last couple of years, inflation really took off and they had to raise rates to double digit levels. they don't want to do that. >> i'm thinking of the greggette piece earlier in the week, the ackman tweet in the past 24 hours. this notion you're going to be dealing with higher rates in the greggette piece forever, does that worry you? does that sort of force of consensus thinking worry you that maybe we're in for a surprise? >> i think the markets may be anticipating too much -- too much cutting to go on. i think we have to realize the last 15 or 20 years was the unusual period, not the usual period. so, i think rates will probably end up somewhere between that unusual period and the period we

had from before. so, i think markets and individuals just have to get used to the idea that rates aren't going to be around zero forever. >> if you grow up in the unusual period, it's usual to you. i guess the usual period becomes unusual. randy, thank you. >> exactly. >> randy kroszner, thanks. microsoft, meantime, closing in on its acquisition of activision after uk regulators signaled approval of that deal. deirdre bosa breaks that down in "techcheck." >> as microsoft gets one step closer to completing that deal, i wanted to step back and take a look at what this means for the regulatory landscape and m&a activity going forward. you can track sentiment, skepticism and optimism by looking at activision blizzard stock price. in 2022 microsoft announced its intent to buy the company for $37.

falling short of that mark. for the next year it would bump along around those levels never breaking $90 a share. that underpinned the skepticism the deal would get through regulators. it wasn't until july of this year as microsoft won a key ruling in the ftc's attempt to stop the deal that it broke that level. today with the uk regulators signaling approval, it is finally within $1 or so of that $95 deal price. with that final approval, microsoft activision, this is the bigger picture, it will become an example of how a company can successfully ride out the stricter regulatory scrutiny of the biden administration. it's also another blow to the antitrust bulldogs he put in charge a few years ago. the most prominent, of course, lina khan at the ftc and jonathan kanter at the doj, who promised bold action and update antitrust laws for a modern internet era. instead, a string of blows that may leave corporate america feeling emboldened and lead to

more m&a activity. big tech deals still pending, cisco and splunk, which was just announced yesterday. it was interesting the reaction on wall street to this deal, too. a year ago wall street might have pointed out the regulatory risk. yesterday one analyst summed it up simply, tidal wave of software m&a on the horizon. that's what he wrote. all of this hasn't stopped the ftc and doj from bringing some major landmark cases against the biggest of the biggest, the mega cap tech like amazon and google, meta. they are not perceived as a real threats. if the market sees them as weak cops, which several people are seeing them that way, we could see more deals on the horizon. there has been this regulatory overhang over the last few years. that's sort of coming out, is what i'm hearing from investors i talk to. >> i guess the question is, how many people want to deal with cops in the first place?

obviously as we've seen with microsoft activision, it takes so much time, so much distraction, so much in the way of legal fees and other fees just to make sure this deal goes through. a lot of ceos will say, up, i see this worked for them, but i really don't want to go through the headache. >> i think the stakes are only rising. we're in this era of generative a.i. and big tech are trying to hold onto their lead. they're developing technology internally but they also want to go back to deals. microsoft and openai, that wasn't an acquisition. that was a creative partnership that essentially gave them all the benefit of openai and chatgpt but didn't have to touch regulators. they're finding ways around it. microsoft shows it's very much willing to take it on with activision blizzard. these are such well capitalized companies, if they think they can win, they may not hesitate. that's what activision blizzard

and microsoft have done. showing if you push back, you can win concessions. we're dealing with a different story when you think about doj and alphabet and ftc and amazon. it could be complacency on the part of investors but there is this thinking it's not going to go anywhere. over the last decade that has proven to be true. >> mizuho pushing back that splunk ushers new tech m&a. they said management was challenged, it was out there for a long time, maybe this was a bit of a one-off. in words of one investors, cisco is where companies go to fade away. i wonder how you think the street is absorbing that deal? >> that's a great point. when i was looking at this deal, i thought about legacy tech and how they like to do this to up their top line growth, ibm and red hat comes to mind. hasn't really led to any growth for ibm's side. you could argue the same might happen with cisco and splunk. the other thing i thought, carl, is maybe if companies see that

splunk was able to get 157 bucks a share, down from its low point of 75 bucks a share, they could want to hold on and maybe ipo on the horizon for at least the private companies facing either a takeover by private equity or a strategic acquisition. maybe that makes some of the enterprise software companies think they're worth more. it is the point, why would you maybe want to be part of cisco, right? part of a strategic acquisition by a company that struggles to find growth versus trying to find that on your own and having the market value you. >> yeah. the price discovery aspect of this whole dynamic is so interesting. deirdre, thank you. speaking of price discovery, up next, the rich and famous are dropping hundreds of thousands of dollars on private clubs. robert frank's uptown with a live look. look at that, robert. >> leslie. from wine rooms like this one to celebrity chefs and health spas, the private membership clubs are raising the stakes in the battle for wealthy clients. we'll take you and give you the

first look inside the core club in midtownnd t aell you what it costs coming up after the break. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

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the writers guild telling its members after yesterday's negotiations that reportedlied more than ten hours both sides would meet again for a third straight day today and asked as many members as possible to come out to the picket lines as they hope to make a final push. joining us this morning with what to expect heading into today's talks is former hollywood reporter editorial dir director, matthew, great to have

you. some of the reporting would lead to you believe something is tantalizingly close. is that true? >> i think it is true. i think the fact these negotiations are going over the time scheduled, the fact the ceos are involved directly in the negotiations now, most of them in person, and the fact there's been all of this pressure now put on these two sides because they're now issuing statements jointly and they're now getting everyone excited. i think we are close. >> matthew, do you have any sense of what the remaining sticking points are at this stage? >> yeah, from what i've ascertained, they are still a little bit far apart on the transparency issue, the writers' desire to see tdata. they want to know that so they can properly be compensated for their work. and second, the issue of mandatory staffing, the number

of writers that are hired for each show. the gill uild wants a certain nr and the studios are saying we're not going to hire people we don't need. we'll hair the people we need. they're still apart on those issues, i'm told. >> how are they thinking of monetizing content and creative work in the wake of the ai revolution and how much space between a wga deal and on the actors' side? >> the writers want guarantees the studios are not going to use their scripts for the language learning mod tolls create ai-generated scripts and the studio would own the copy write in the film. there are different concerns with ai with generated images.

they want protections against that. in terms of the timing, if there is a deal on the wga, the actors' guild hopes to use that as a template and to resolve their specific issues. but to really piggyback on what the writers gain and hopefully get a couple things beyond that. if there is a deal for the writers, the actors could fall pretty soon after. >> what if there's not a deal? reporting has suggested if it doesn't come together quickly that it won't for quite some time. what's your sense of the worst case scenario if the deal is not consummated, say, by the end of today? >> i'm always very skeptical when either side says we need a deal by x time, or else disaster is going to strike. that sounds like a negotiating tactic to me. however, because there's a four to six-week ramp up between the time there is a deal and when production can begin because of

ratification and the ramp-up time. if we get into october on this, i don't think there will be production before the end of the year. that would be a huge hit to the industry. >> i hope you don't mind zeroing in on disney. the capex announcement about the parks was so interesting. does the company no longer see streaming as a key growth driver? and then in the last 24 hours some reporting suggesting maybe unloading abc won't be as easy as the street thinks. do you have reflections on that? >> the park situation is disney leaning in where they know they have a winner. they have had such troubles on the linear tv and on the streaming side and this is a big vote of confidence and is a reminder disney is not like other companies. they have an engine that can

grow off profits in an area that is not in secular change. the parks industry is growing out of covid and is susceptible to broader issues in the economy but is not like the streaming business. and as for the value of abc and who the buyers are, that was going to be a challenge from the get go. you have to find someone who can milk money. tv stations are the new newspapers. who wants the ride these assets down to the ground? that is what they're looking for right now. >> what a week, thank you, matthew. >> there's a lot of talk about bubbles on wall street. a new trend is attracting hundreds of thousands. robert was surrounded by some publy but now looks like he's in some sort of a bar. robert?

>> reporter: more than a dozen private clubs have popped up since the pandemic. call it work from club where business leaders can socialize, wine and dine outside of the public eye and that price, there's a big price for that privacy. i'm just across the street, costs $200,000 to join, $15,000 a year in annual dues. downtown the hipper clubs like zero bond are more modest $4,000 a year. some of them are all about the food. zizi's is about to open and what they call a culinary concierge. >> we have so much talent, we can make you anything you want. if you want your mother's meatloaf in two days, we can make it for you. fried chicken, we can make it for you. we can probably make a greater version of it.

>> reporter: this is the speak easy, moving from their old space to this 60,000-square-foot space, 11 hotel suites, three dining areas, lots of meeting rooms, a gym, a spa. the price is $15,000 to $100,000 to join and $15,000 a year. the question, guys, is if the economy turns south or markets get weaker, will all these clubs survive? >> how does this compare with your traditional country club? is the membership similar or is this attracting a new clientele? >> reporter: it's a new clientele. it serves a different purpose. most of them in cities is about networking, holding meetings, spotting somebody you might do a deal with over dinner, but, also, a lot of cultural events. 150 cultural events here every

year from performances to big ta talks, so there's an intellectual as opposed to sports clubs you find in suburbia. >> robert, thank you. our robert frank this morning. next week will be busy between nike earnings, micron, pce, the holiday on monday. have a great weekend. to frank holland and "the half." welcome to the "the halftime report." front and center this hour, the road ahead for investors following a pretty rocky week on wall street. the question, how should you position yourself in this higher for longer world. plus following breaking new developments this hour as more autoworkers walk off the job. we have a live report from our own phil lebeau coming up. first to our investment committee. we have a great panel, shannon saccocia, bryn talkington, steve weiss and rob sechan. and now a quick check of the market at noon eas