swift tickets? >> i guess. at game? >> the basis? how much i paid -- >> yeah. >> well -- >> watch the concession workers. i don't have time for that but wrigley field concession workers could be going on strike as our summer and year of strikes. >> thanks for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. post nine at new york stock exchange. a make or break hours begins with stock seeking firmer footing after a jarring week. major indexes struggling to stay in the green most of the day and the breakout in bond yields this week stokes the economic concerns. treasury yields calmer on the day. oil prices are quiet. coming up, citi out way new bullish call on meta. talk to the analyst about why he's optimistic about that name. brings us to our "talk of the take." our stocks close to completing a standard seasonal pullback, or

more payback to come as higher rates test the economy's resilience. here to discuss that, greg branch, veritas managing partner. great to have you. >> good to be here. >> you have been in the hire for longer on rates for away and feeling stock market wouldn't be able to handle it easily. what has this week told you about the resilience of the market in the face of higher rates where they're going and what it all means? >> one of f issues i've had and didn't maintain because of obstinate. probably am. reason maintained higher than the higher and longer than the longer. so the market is just starting to catch up with my high. right? a year ago i declared terminal rate at 6%, put it diplomatically, highly scrutinized. >> sure. >> here we are around 50 dips away, the fed poised to raid

more. some interpret that as just one more. i think there's several more. still higher than the high. in terms of longer, recall that futures projected interest rates cuts back of this year. look at 8% growth number for fourth quarter a remnant of interest rate cuts this year. i don't see how there's any other possible path to get to at 8% earnings growth in that quarter of this year. rate cut. so i don't know if the market's gotting to my longer yet. i don't think cuts in 2024 even though the fed just might pull the dot, suggest two as opposed to see four. disco discounting. i don't know long is long enough. what does that mean? my estimates much lower than consensus estimates for this year and next. put any, eve an conservative malt poor or air multiple puts me at 3,800. while on the high side, market's catching up. longer. and yet to happen i think i --

>> this year's number around 225 or 221 by the consensus. right? for this year. most of the year is done. >> right. >> consensus for next year is like in the 247 range. something like that. >> right. i can't get there. >> the thing, it's -- it's essentially, like 10% or 12% higher than in 2022. >> right. >> the economy, not only a whole lot bigger. the big growth stocks leading, earnings growth path. curious why it's such a crazy number next year without rate cuts? >> so, to be fair, just because i believe the indices are 15% to 20% too high, there will be winners talking big tech. things that are not as exposed to the consumer. the reason it's too high is that if 20% below that, i'm 5% below that, it's not a shot to the market. if we see earnings revisions downward revisions in magnitude

of 20, 15, maybe 20% a strong headwind. >> and suggests also that you're pretty much in or at risk of a recession, and how does the fed stay higher for longer in that context? you know, say what they want now. when unemployment goes up or see dips inflationary forces in corporate earningsable the company, not hanging at 5.5%. >> fed is braced for that. not the rest of us. they told us that. tell us they need unemployment at 4.4% to get their target rate. fed is prepared. we're not. they are. >> new projection next year 4.1% unemployment and don't pencil in getting to inflation target until two-plus years from now. in other words, feel they can be patient. >> i'm not sure that that's the posture or reality. same time you don't have to put us on warning there might be

another cut this year. right? based on where -- >> another hike. >> exactly. >> broaden the conversation. bring in stephanie link of hightower and brian levitt of invesco. stephanie a cnbc contradicter. welcome. brian, curious about your thoughts here, because seems like the rally in stocks at least big cap stocks this year has been premised on the fed is done or almost done. the economy has been relatively resilient to this point. inflation down more than the economy's weakened. do you have an issue with that setup and/or with greg's point of view? >> i don't have an issue with that setup. it's an environment where this is a market that's been thinked about peak rates, peak inflation. what we've dealt with a bit here in august and september, which historically are not great months for markets, concern at peak rates and peak oil. investors need to recognize, why i disagree with greg, it's that

policy takes 12 to 18 months to work its way through the economy. many americans have fixed rate mortgages, businesses locked in low rates. we haven't seen the lag effects of all this. 18 months ago the fed funds rate was 0.0%. this is an economy that will start to slow in 2024, which means the fed is close to being done. historically, you invest when the fed is done. very happy over the next one, two and three years. >> yeah. i don't know. the fed -- fed done is one thing. fed being forced to cut is a historically, brian, not the greatest for interest stocks? >> go ahead. >> by the time the fed is cut cutting, starting to look ahead to a new business cycle. >> right. >> this market that was down 25% last year, that was forecasting a weak economic environment still hasn't happened yet but likely still to come. people will say, stock markets

bottom in recession, but inflation usually peaks in a recession. this is weird timing. inflation already peaked. closer to peak rates. to me, that sets the stage for the effects cycle and good backdrop for subsequent years. >> steph -- >> clarify. brian and i are not actually disagreeing. not saying incremental basis points doing heavy lifting. i agree, 525 high perp this means not an environment to expect earnings growth when cost of capital is higher, yet to see effects filter through the system and when consensus is way off to the other end. we're not disagreeing at all. >> yeah. no. i see that, the connection there between those. now, steph, obviously, all of them worry that we've been dealing with, whether the economy can handle rates. what the fed has planned for us. it's being combined with some of the immediate headwinds that all of a sudden have piled up.

right? we have the, know about the strikes. we know about potential government shutdowns, student loan restart. we've swung over the course of this year from, going to overheat in the economy, to, we have a recession, credit crunch. one or the other. through it all slow and steady. how do you see things playing out, and as we mentioned earnings growth by consensus at least starting to pick up? >> no. i don't think people are giving enough credit to the economy and the economic growth and mow mer meaow-of-momentum. beginning of the year, the peak. consensus. from there roll over and roll over hard and would be in a recession by now. actually the opposite has happened. 2% growth first quarter. 2.1% in the second. atlanta fed trackers at 4.9. not doing that. probably 3, 3.5, 4. gdp next week. interesting. above trend. that is the point.

that's because the economy has been fueled by the consumer. every week we are surprised on initial claims. they keep coming in lower and lower and lower. they're nowhere near recessionary levels at this point. the four-week moving averages 2, 17,000. resecession recession, 350 to 375. infrastructure stimulus is helping that industry as well. pockets, though. right? onshoring, aviation. ai, datacenters. that sort ofthing. that said, it is what it is. helping, it's working. not all that money filtered into the system to begin with. that's going to be a nice offset to higher rates. i'm not saying we won't slow. we are. there's a lot of momentum here and that is the reason why the fed is staying higher for longer, because the economy is driving a little bit more inflation and that's a little bit more persistent. >> right. and brian, honestly, we can talk about what the market is doing.

we all know it's very uneven in certain parts of the market, small caps broken down, to a degree. so maybe we can, explain some of this disagreement with the divergences there, to me, it comes down to the path of inflation. that's going to decide if the fed can comfortably pause, if it can make cut down the road without an economic downturn. what are you looking at to indicate whether in fact, inflation has downside momentum? >> look, inflation has come down from 9% to as low as 3% and back up to 3.7% on oil. look across money supplying growth, negative on the year over year basis. if you look at the good side. businesses rebuilt inventory. there's been a lot of talk about, why is the cpi, consumer price index, staying elevated? a lot has to did with the way the u.s. bureau of labor statistics is looking at shelter. already seen the s&p k schiller national home price index go

flat, slightly negative on a year over year basis. rents are now down sig significantly. year over year. landlords, soft a rental market seen in some time beyond covid. i'm trying to figure out what's going to drive inflation here. i think that people talking about too strong growth and elevated inflation, to me, that was a 2022 story. this is now a story of moderating growth, inflation that's going to moderate and a fed ultimately backing off tightening sense if they haven't already done so. >> greg, you think i know more stickingness in inflation. what among those things that brian detailed in the pipeline do you not think are going to come through? >> yeah. i think cherry picked it a little bit. look at last two reports and go underneath. forget about the headline number. yeah, includes energy but also includes base effect. that's less favorable as we move

forward. energy will certainly be less favorable as we move forward. when you look at the individual 24, 25 components, last two months only three actually contracted more than 70. and we have reason to believe that's going to risk going forward. electricity. obviously reasonable reverses forward and airlines. heavy lifting at 8% in the last two months. reason to believe that's going to reverse going forward. i have no problem seeing where we are seeing the resistance through disinflation. >> hear this. i hear this every inflection point and hear this before every recession. heard it in 2008 as well. we heard it prior to 2000. oil prices go up driving headline inflation higher. oil price is moving higher at this point is a tax on the consumer. talked about it in the prior program on cnbc. the dead the consumer has taken on.

you hear about now what we're paying at the pump. this is all going to slow down consumer spending after what had been a pretty torrid pace. >> steph, just want to get to you in terms of within the market. one of the things gone on last couple of weeks, some weakening of cyclical leadership within the s&p and broader indexes. not given up, one of those things seems like we're questioning all of those uptrends we took comfort in, like the cyclical leadership. where does that leave you in terms of picking spots where you might want to buy things? >> yeah. i think with the market down 6% from its highs a lot of ideas out there that i've actually been picking away at. you know i had an overweight on the cyclicals and energy and industrials. fine tuned financials. now about market weight. i just think that the struggles inferred, margins continue for some time. i think you'll see better demand

top line numbers in energy. especially where oil is relative to last year and also on the industrial side, too. anything, again, tied to onshoring. things are on fire. i do like a couple of ideas. ge health care. stock down 25% from its highs. a ge spin. right? and hospital spend will be 1.5% growth next year. ge health care, they have a 35% market share in imaging and 40% market share in ultrasound. if ub believe these alzheimer's drugs will take off, i do. a lot of people do, you need four mriis taking that treatmen. a lot of momentum and we know they work, been ignored part of a conglomerate and i like the cisco/splunk deal a lot. see software 50% of their total revenues. this deal will be gross margin and cash flow "credtiveayccredie

first year. bought that, too. >> thank you. good to our "question of the day," is the recent pullback a buying opportunity? head to cnbc closing vote to answer. and following latest developments out of the united auto workers strike expanding in a major way. phil lebeau here with more. phil? >> reporter: outside a mopar parts distribution center here in romulus, michigan a little west of detroit. i want to give you sense of just how widespread the new strikes announced by the uaw. look at this map. 38 gm and stellantis parts distribution centers, uaw are on strike. not huge employers. often 100150 employees in them. altogether another 5,600 uaw

members on the picket line. earlier we talked with president of uaw outside a different parts distribution center he said these centers are critical to what they want to send a message to the automakers about. >> gm and stellantis in the same place. we have not made progress there and it's unfortunate. they chose, make this clear. they chose for us to be out here. it wasn't a decision we made. this was the company's addition. >> reporter: both gm and stellantis are negotiating in good faith and stellantis further in the statement following announcement of the strikes saying about the uaw, they seem more concerned pursuing their own political agendas than negotiating in the best interests of our employees, and the sustainability of our u.s. operations given the market's fierce competition. not a lot of reaction from investors today for gm and stlnstlnt

o stellantis but for shares of ford uaw saying some progress when it comes to negotiations with ford. live here in romulus seeing more strikes at some point according to shawn fain if no progress is down the road. when it is, next week, week after that? depends on progress or lack of progress when it comes to negot negotiations. >> how is the uaw strategy of he's targeted strikes trying to keep the manufacturers off balance, how is that playing into the sort of willingness to negotiate in a serious way? and do you feel as if they're just going to kind of keep with this drumbeat indefinitely here? >> reporter: they will keep with this strategy and believe it's working. they believe it's working from this perspective -- in their opinion, this is a case where the automakers don't know where the next strike may be. it may be a large final

acceptably plant or a small distribution center. point being, they want to show the automakers they will continue calling these strikes and keeps it in the public's eye, mike. a big part what the uaw is trying to do. >> absolutely. phil, appreciate it. certainly back here as it developing. just getting started here. up next a rough week for retail. the xrt etf falling nearly 4% since monday. hear from a top analyst. simian siegal how he's navigating the downturn and key names he's betting on now. live in the new york stock exchange. indexes terned up. dow up 56. s&p up as well. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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well, a check on top stocks to watch heading into the close. kristina partsinevelos with that. >> hi, mike. chinese tech higher as china reportedly plans to ease restrictions on foreign investment in chinese publicly traded companies. china currently lifted total for ownership by 30% and a single foreign shareholder to 10%. bloomberg reporting the country could ease caps in an effort to open the market and boost trading. that could benefit names like jd.com, alibaba. all names on the screen higher. al ba baba for example up 5%. all names tracking for monthly

declines. investors hilting the brakes on hertz, oppenheimer cuts car rental company to thes 21 a share from $25. analysts expecting lower revenue in the current quarter but maintain birating. utilization remains strong. shares down almost 10%. wow. >> thank you. it's been a rough week for retail stocks with a group on track for its worst month since may. more kearns about health of consumer, more pain ahead for this space? ask senior analyst at bmo capital markets. great to talk to you. all had you was the stock charts in this group you'd thing things were lousy on the consumer front. look at like the bank credit card tracking data, spending volumes wage growths. seems not that bad. where do you come down in terms of a general state of play in terms of consumer spending? >> mike, yes. ask a question, all bad?

i sure hope not. listen, i think the answer is, funny, because when you look at the conversations versus the numbers, companies are still growing revenues and still growing in gross margening. you couldn't know that by the headlines. in this limbo period now. past back to school. not yet at holiday. deep into '23. too far from '24. investors can't put on next year's ideas yet and credit card data has people chasing their tail figuring out what revenues are doing today. end of the day, those that can take a step back. interesting opportunities. until that happens, absence of ma macro, right now it's scary. >> no doubt a flight to relative safety, perceived safety in more defensive-type names. whether costco, something like that. but in your universe, is it just about going to the sort of proven market share winners, or

other just super cheap situations worth playing? >> for better or worse. single-digit pe, in my world. costco you referenced. tjx. off pricer. this company is a go-to destination for largest brands. tjx continues compounding. not cheap, but for a reason. great. one side of the portfolio. the other side, to your point. this wreckage creates opportunity, and some of those businesses are going to be trading. have to figure where to play them off if want to throw a dart. some are good businesses thrown out. i think you and i historically talked in the past about bath & body works. a business sells soap and candles. a fairly replenished business. not subject to whims of fashion but trades as if it is. a business with a new management team. affecting change. turning on loyalty, but, to every, it's just a mall-based retailer. that's a really compelling opportunity. we're looking there, bath & body

works for a risk/reward play. tjx, compounder. bbw, a little more alpha if willing to stomach this limbo in between period. >> you mention that, still have time until we're in the core of holiday season. seems to be somewhere focus is even survey-based work suggesting consumers may spend less. any way to handicap how it's going to look? >> the beauty of holiday reports out 3%, 4% and low, 3% huge problem, and still showing growing. a fascinating thing to look at these surveys. i prefer to look at revenues because end of the day, ask me my intent to purchase never as powerful at actual receipt what i did purchase. my gut people will spend on holiday and good for you and i, bad for investors, i guess, discounts there, but not everywhere. i think that's where we're finally past this all rising tides is good or bad of covid. remember, beginning of covid

simply no profit. no discounts. last year too much product. a plethora of discounts. right now good brands hold their own. tougher brands chase. so you and i will find deals both from investment perspective and more importantly from a sweater perspective, there's going to be promotionpromotions. not for everyone. student loans and other macro before heard you talking about the recession. they have to acknowledge and scared end of the day pointing to their enls showing when they give customers product they are buying it. whyte roitly or wrongly the u.s. investor is incredibly resilient. >> varies by name, but in terms of their pricing, their ability to preserve margins changed much over the last, say, six months? >> i think you said it. it will vary by name. i think we are seeing certain companies chasing because they

feel the need to drive revenues and realizing the brand equity they thought they got was simply the fact their neighbor didn't have promotions on. then other companies look at handbag companies. saying raising prices. i think it will be very case-specific. you're right. i alluded to the fact not only revenues are up, but majority of my companies saw gross margins up. the dichotomy. plent you of brands unfortunately fall back to what we saw since 2008. triggering the death of retail, everything is that scenario, that was promotions. also some that are looking at this saying, first time in ten-plus years people paid up for my product. i don't want to be quick to get that back. >> absolutely seems like a significant turn. great talking. have a good week. up next, technical turbulence and breaking down how to best trade the uncertainty.

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stocks moved slightly in the green nearing close for the week. this week's losses come as investors continue to react to the federal reserve's signal intends to keep interest rates higher longer. joining me to discuss how he's managing the current environment ed cliso. chief u.s. strategist add ned davis research. good to talk to you.

wondered your assessment seen this little damage over the last several weeks. have we done significant larp to the longer-term trend? how do you think about it? >> at this point the damage has not been swift enough to say this is a major peak. whenever the market pulls back technicals look messy. where we are now. as of yesterday 15% of stocks above ten-day moving averages. percentage of stocks, 200 over day, longer term. down 45%. usually needs to get to low 30s before you say it's a bigger sign of trouble. so at this point, we'd say it's part of a good, healthy correction after a very strong start to the year. seasonally stronger quarter, fourth quarter, looked for the markets to resume uptrek. >> in the mode often happens after any kind of a pullback, wanting to see the numbers get worse before they get better to

give you some kind of a signal that it's overdone to the down side or might we not need that? >> at this point, i wouldn't say washout levels. you want to see percentage of stocks, ten-year averages get below 10%. a sentiment composite combines a lot of sentiment. indicators like the vix, call ratios down to neutrals. like that to have more pessimism in the market. perhaps down side risk over the next few weeks to get a few more people out of the market, shake some of those uncertain bulls out before the market can start that year-end rally. >> how has this move higher in yields and i guess increasing expect aations how high rates remain into next year, how does that play in equity valuations or act ability of the market to

absorb that. >> not a good year your the s&p. the third weakest bull market for the first year since world war ii. one reason why, if you can get 5.5% from cash why put your money in stocks? hurdle rate you can get into the market is much higher. part of the reason you saw these ai stock doss so well. okay, put some money in cash and put the rest in areas i think that can do better than cash. if a company maybe improved earnings growth 3% to 7% not worth in a 5% world of t-note bills. >> true. relative weakness of this bull market since the low last october, if that can mostly be explained by investors preferring to get 5% in cash. that's not such a bad economic message. do you look at things smaller cap stocks breaking down and

just the average stock lagging so far behind the s&p 500. if those are sending any kind of economic signal on top of it? >> a couple things here, michael. one, bear market last year was not associated with recession. so rebound from the high beta areas like small caps tends to only last six months. kind of what we got leading into the silicon valley crisis in march. but i would say that as a bull market matures then small caps tend to weaken and so what we're seeing right now from small caps interest expense soared as rates have gone up and having to refinance debt. also happened with large caps. more cash on balance sheet actually playing the yield curve. some making more money or cash, interest to income, greater than interest expense. small caps don't have thatathat abi that ability for the most part.

playing into small caps. why there's economic risk heading into next year as rates start to trickle, long variable lags the fed likes to talk about, still out there for 2024. >> yeah. if we dial back to the beginning of this year, you were able to point to a bunch of things. yep a pretty good low in october. inflation coming down hard usually bullish for stocks. third presidential cycle also pullish. next year seems like a little cloudier? >> yes. clouds y is a good way to put i michael. notices accidental fiscal stimulus because of the inflation adjustment for social security, which is 20% of all federal expenditures. it was 8.7%, because that's what inflation was last year. as inflation came down that turned into a real after inflation massive fiscal stimulus. well, next year inflation adjustment isn't going to be so

strong. tighter lending standards. throw on resumption of student loan payments and the outlook for the economy next year does get a little bit tougher. the market peaks about six months before the start of a recession. so we would start to see the cracks start to form maybe after year-end rally or even getting into that year and rally maybe the breadb th not as good as summer. that's the sign. >> things to watch towards year end. thanks, ed. appreciate it. >> thank you. from ned davis. up next, tracking biggest movers heading into the close. kristina is back. >> silicon cared by. semiconductor material you may hear more of. one worth $5 billion. details about that, next.

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18 minutes until "closing bell." index wavering. s&p 500 just about flat. and key stocks to watch. what do you have, kristina? >> coherent. reporting the company addressed four japanese companies for investment in silicon carbide business worth $4.5 billion.

materials used to make chips and silicone carbide for electric batter batteries. and investors, though, clearly happy about this potential deal and that's why shares are up about 8% now. buyo tech giant up announcing positive signs treating bladder kansas perp adding to an already strong year fuelled in part by pfizer's plan to acquire the company. stock up 65% year to date. compared that, or compare that to biotech etf like xbi as well as ibb both in the red year to date. a discrepancy between both of them definitely. >> big out performance. kristina, thank you. last chance to weigh in on the "question of the day." is the recent pullback a buying opportunity? led to krcnbc "closing bell,"

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results of our "question of the day." asked is the recent pullback a buying opportunity? majority, almost 60% saying, yes. up next, making a case for meta. citi out way positive call and the social media giant hear from analyst behind that note and why he's so bullish on the name after this break. that and much more wn hewe take you inside the "market zone."

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we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. indexes in session lowsalities fa little failed rally in the last hour. seema mody is with us. and kristina partsinevelos on the sell-off in chip stocks. and on a positive catalyst watch on meta. seema, start with you. tough week for deere. what's the street saying about this one? >> we have a downgrade, mike, and a price cut to the 400 from 530. analysts focusing on new data showing a slight drop in agriculture equipment sales. inten inventory building. crops weaken.

differentiates john deere from competitors like adco, robust pipeline including drones and artificial intelligence embedded in commequipment using less fertilizer making farmer more efficient. spoke to deere's cto a couple months ago. he said at the time recession or not, deere will continue to spend on research and development. total budget roughly $2 billion this year up from last year. pressure growing on getting that equipment to the field especially given what we see in the stock. >> yeah. seema, it's always a tough call when you see a stock like deere. cyclical on some level and maybe have to wait through a downturn. looks also kind of cheap. looking at valuation. lower end of its ten-year range, whether price earnings multiple. earnings estimates can come down in the future, but seems as if there's not a lot of confidence

that they're going to have steady growth in the next few years priced into the stock. >> and also seasonality factors like kicking in, first quarter and fourth quarter tend to be seasonally weak in terms of revenue. see how that plays into the overjaw story. right. stock fell 7%, 8% this week. worst since august. first time seeing a trade slightly cheaper valuation than some direct competitors in the agriculture equipment space. >> seema, thank you. as the market deepens its losses to session lows, dow down 116. one-third of 1%. s&p down similar percentage. kristina, semis not able to escape weakness this week? >> take today. be positive. most hires today. you mentioned almost every chip name on the nasdaq 100 in the red with exception, remember, talking about silicon carbide,

even those shares, though, not even 1% higher at the moment. intel. focus on that. va vanex semi. down 10% week to date. today we learned eu antitrust regulator is bring-of-reimposing a $400 million fine related to allegations back in 2009. intel using illegal sales tactics to push out a competitor. amd not happy with the find. speaking of amd, it's about, look at that, 5%, almost 5.5% lower on the week along with nvidia. lofty valuations you spoke about driven in part by the ai boom has investors scrutinizing the fundamentals of these particular names. cathie wood, ceo of ark invest told cnbc this week, too much emphasis on ai. nvidia going to declines sold

stock in that. speaking of ai. arm latest chip designer going public last week. shares currently falling close to ipo price. was $51. now at $51.22. down again 8% this week. susquehanna latest to suggest stock fully valued while others, so many notes just in the past week or so pointing out it is a chip name but not necessarily an ai play given its exposure to the mobile smartphone the market. >> absolutely. nominating some years. the crucial question. ai or not ai? kristina, thanks. ron, on meta. you have an idea for catalyst cone sees reason coming up why this stock could get recharged. why is that? even after a strong month. >> thanks for having me. a few things going on at meta. do a lot of complier to work looking at engines for

engagements. reels. a greater ad loan making us more confident on the monetization side. based on a few things. not only greater monetization given greater engagement but next week there's an event called meta connect we expect to hear a lot more about meta's overall strategy with gen ai. don't think anywhere near the beginning phases of what it could be for meta. look to hear more details there and on top of that, results going forward especially holiday season. in our view online advertising in a better spot overall than many other sectors. >> and looking at this right? in terms of earnings forecast for meta for this year and next being that radically higher than consensus? $3 this year, almost $4 next year? >> we're at closer to $17.60. consensus, on a gap ps basis. a lot of different numbers, but consensus closer to 16-ish or

so. a little higher, but actually think there's, top-line, as it reaccelerates or continues to ackerate a lot of earnings power that can result from that. >> obviously the stock has had this great rebound from those lows as they started to focus on margins. less spend. you're focused on the revenue side and earnings leverage within the advertising opportunity for reels. what's the overall advertising setup now? just about meta gaining share or is there a broader comeback in digital? >> that is "the" question we get almost every day. argued here broader online advertising environment's improving but not a rising tide. really it's those platforms that are investing in ads innovation we think are gaining greater share. meta the poster child for that from our perspective. point to so many ad process out extracting more advertising dollars, and driving better targeting, but just this week actually got back from interest

analysts upgraded stock there in a better spot as well. of course, remiss not to talk about amazon and google here. advertising a better spot than perhaps people think. >> amazon, of course a story coming out. increase advertising through prime video. strikes me. think about the dollar, consumer watch ads, pay up. a struggle among advertisers to find more ad inventory as television declines and other areas are awarded access? >> i think that's beyond. hours' long of content online. only maybe four ad breaks in a minute or two. you know the business better than a do. online, reels is so powerful. sort of a never ending amount of potential monetization as long as that engagement grows. anyway, the point being on amazon back to prime video, actually think it's a really interesting play. you might see ads here more and more, and we they could actually help subsidize content plays.

content rights up forbidding in the next couple years. you're right. everyone's looking for greater c-tv we call it. connective tv inventory. not easy. >> sure the industry will do its best to deliver. reels does not have a fixed ad hold. great to talk to you. ron from citi. heading into the close a about a minute to go. dow down 96 points. s&p off almost a quarter of a percent. there have been half-started rallies throughout the day. volatility drained down a little. looking for the week, s&p 500 on the verge of about a 3% pullback. overall, since its late july peak, s&p off some 6%. so proper pullback not necessarily a deep correction just yet. ten-year treasury yield at 4.3% backed off. calmed down. a fair bit from the rise investors were afraid of. although on the week, only up

from 433. not a huge move even as the fed has tried toconvey it's going to keep interest rates higher for longer -- [ closing bell ] >> and at the mark, the august low as well. that's going to do it for "closing bell." we go to "overtime." not a great week for bulls. score card on wall street. winner stays late. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." jon fortt with morgan brennan. coming up, could crude head to 150 dollars per barrel? that's what jpmorgan said in a new call. ask the energy expert helena croft if she agrees. >> plus talk to the cfo, $100 billion defense lockeheed marti. how a government shutdown will