and they're a very high quality company. >> joe, you have the last word. >> in energy there is clearly a supply to demand imbalance, not in the oil, but in the refined products. philips 66 psx trades at a ridiculous six times earnings and that's the trade going forward. i would be long. >> that will do it for halftime. we have "the exchange" starting right now. thanks for watching. thank you very much, frank. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans and here's what's ahead as we kick off the week. a government shutdown looking more and more likely, but will it actually help reduce the budget deficit. we have the latest from washington and why it so far hasn't been bad news for the market and the market guest agrees and last fall she added to technology where the algos were running for the hills and this sell-off is setting up for some of the same opportunities. plus checking out, the post-pandemic economy resulting in a surprisingly high number of

faults and we'll speak to a lender about how and how much worse it can get. first, let's get to today's market, bob pisani over at the new york stock exchange. a little better picture this afternoon, bob. >> yes, we did not start off well. mid-morning we turned around and let's call everything flattish at this point and there's been a lot of damage underneath the surface and the s&p is down 4% and that's a terrible performance and the dow is up 2% because of health care did better and some of the energy names outperformed like chevron. nasdaq's down about 6%. russell 2000's down about 7% so it's been rough on some of the small-cap name heers and look at the dow laggards and you can see the effects the higher interest rateses have and it impacts consumer discretionary stocks and nike has been practically straight down for a couple of weeks and salesforce, big leader in tech and apple week and the credit cards like visa, amex not acting well at all in the last couple of weeks and there's your

impact, consumer, consumer spending and technology stocks. real estate investment trusts and higher rates. that's obviously a connection there and you see names like crown castle and american tower, that's cell phone towers, too, and the apartment complexes, it sells health care real estate centers, but it's essentially office buildings. weakness there and even when you look at the old market leaders. remember two months ago, semiconductors were all at or near new highs? well, it's been a rough couple of months there and particularly in the month of september and down notably for the month and paradigm, marvel, sd micro and amd and all big market leaders all week this month here. if you have one problem it's pretty obvious at this point and i know people are worried about seasonals and the government shutdown and student debt. believe me, it pales in comparison to the rising yield issues because stocks and bonds are selling off at the same time and this happened in the last year. remember, we have been dealing

with a historic change here since 1980s, yields have been lower and it's been a tailwind for stocks. it's not anymore, and now this is a major problem. the marks are trying to digest this higher rates for longer environment, and as you can see, we get what we call this pocket picker market, kelly, where you try to buy rallies, but because rates keep rising they never go anywhere, and that's been the story for the last month. kelly, back to you. >> i love how you highlight the way that's predominantly and what's going on with yields and we appreciate it. our bob pisani. >> the government's funding is ending and it's looking less and less likely that congress can get a deal done to avoid a shutdown. let's go to emily wilkins in washington with the very latest for us. emily? >> kelly, there's a lot happening in d.c. and at this point there does not seem to be a path to avoid a shutdown by saturday night and sunday morning, october 1st. the government looks to be in a shutdown. still a lot of action going on

and the house last week tried and failed to pass multiple spending bills so they decided this week they'll be focusing on those long-term spending bills and they want to have conservative cuts and spending down the line and that does nothing for a shutdown. kevin mccarthy did tell reporters this morning that he's still working to get a stop-gap short-term bill after the bills passed and he also had critiques and lawmakers in his own party who had voted against spending bills in his own week saying they don't have a strategy. listen to what he said. >> you have to keep the government open. people who want to close government only makes them weaker and why would they want to stop paying the troops, the border agents and the coast guard? i don't understand what point they're trying to make. >> the senate has also stepped in. they are now working on their own short-term spending bill that they hope would be bipartisan and it is not clear when the bill is going to be done and that it is going to take time to pass.

again, even with the senate route we're still looking and potentially going into a shutdown and this will have potentially big impacts. when we had the longest shutdown, 34 full days back in 2018 and 2019, we saw the economy take $11 billion hit and the white house is already telling federal agencies to get prepared for a shutdown. you can see 2 million federal workers plus military go without pay and kelly, that has the potential to have a huge impact on the economy. >> i just want them to put out the jobs report and the cpi. >> that doesn't happen either, with the government shutdown we will not see those economic indicators. >> no. it will be frustrating. emily, thank you. emily wilkins. we may be inching toward a shutdown, and the markets will remain unaffected even with the soaring budget deficit. joining me is the -- from

raymond james. >> thanks, kelly. >> if anything we're looking at the biggest impact on the rates market and that is still moving the stock market, but you still don't think it's a big effect. >> what we did at raymond james is looked at all of the shutdowns since 1959 and asked what did the market do? we hear a lot from the clients is this a real concern? what we found was very counterintuitive. since 1995 when the magovernmen shut down the marks ets went up and actually 30 days after the shutdown universally the market has been up since 1995. >> i think what's different this time and it's not that we -- look, we all know the impact of the shutdown is diminimus. even though we've had interest rates at these levels before it was never with deficit and debts as high as they are.

so i'm just not sure how comparable. >> in other words, if we said forget about the shutdown. what do we do about the fiscal picture? what should be done and the ten-year over 4% today? what would you say? >> i think you're hitting on exactly what jay powell said last week and there is a very long list out there, and i do think those need to be concerns, and people are not very optimistic and is that going to lead to changes in consumer sentiment. is that going to lead to changes in consumer behavior which does have a market implication. i know that there's a lot of conversation about student loans and that is a potential headwind here, but beneath the surface, there are so many changes to the way in which we'll pay student loans that the resumption is a lot less than what people think and absolutely, tons of headwinds, kelly and i think they're less than what people want to tell the story they actually are. >> so what is the fight in

washington over? is it over spending levels? we know the deficit was much higher than expected and $2 trillion, double than what we had last year, and what is expected over the next 12 months? >> it is only going higher at this point when we look back to the debt limit deal. that didn't actually cut funding. that actually reduced the increase in funding, in the background you have the inflation reduction act. you have the chips and science act and the bipartisan infrastructure bill and all adding to the fiscal support that's out there. most of the money hasn't even started to go out the door. we had a ten-year runway on most of that still to come. the fight that you ask about really is within the house freedom caucus. there is a group that are not happy at the direction which speaker mccarthy is leading his caucus. >> right. >> and they want to have the fight. the problem there is they don't have a specific ask. >> exactly. >> they know they might want to shut down the government, but they don't know what's next.

>> so that would be my question as we follow this along and dissatisfaction with the speaker, interpolitical things, they're mildly interesting and not hugely, but is there going to be a specific fight over a specific amount of spending or -- are we at that stage of this yet? is that -- is that really a packer factor here or not? >> not really. the fight are pennies when you talk about the other things we're highlighting those are hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars that are out there so i don't think that comes and what i'm really focused on here, kelly is all of the attention has been on the house and really, the action will originate in the senate. if the senate is able to pass a continuing resolution that keeps the government open, my expectation that could get 75, 80 votes and then it's only a matter of time before the house has to consider that and that would probably have 300 votes and even if we have a shutdown that would be short lived and when we get to the final

appropriations bills they're probably not all that much different than what we already have for funding levels in law passed urn the debt limit deal earlier this year. >> let me ask you the question that turns this on its head. we keep asking what does the shutdown mean for marks and what does it mean for the politics going forward? >> does the yield in the 10.5 or the 30s where it is. you know more than anybody what that math implies for interservice costs and future deficits and so forth. at what point do rates put pressure on the government and not the other way around? >> kelly, one thing i tell clients when you want the government to act is you look for two things, a crisis or a deadline. we do i have a deadline with th government. the debt service burden will eclipse the amount of money we spend on everything discretionary.

that's a coming crisis and it's not a today crisis at least the way they think about it on capitol hill and the politics only gets worse as it relates to additional government funding any time into the future. >> ed, thank you so much for joining us today. i don't know if i hope to see you back here soon because we'll see you if there's a crisis or a deadline. >> there's plenty here in d.c. >> thank you for joining us. ed from raymond james. stocks are headed for another negative month as we enter the third week of september. here with me now is nancy tengler, and she's ceo of tengler investments and also out with a new edition of her book "the women's guide to successful investing. achieving financial security and realizing your goals." congrats. >> this is no small feat. it's harder to update. >> do you think? >> absolutely. >> why? >> because you have to go in and say is that still relevant? that wasn't well written. >> they just updated the graham

security analysis. >> oh, a little more. a little more, yeah. >> also go back to this in a minute, but are you buying tech stocks here? >> we were selling in the summer. remember, we were buying in october and then they ran pretty dramatically, so we were selling in september. i'm sorry, in july, june, may, and we were adding to industrials. we have started to trim the stocks that have done very well and we're starting to step back in and one of the names we like is a name that was punished on the earnings call and that's oracle and we think that it's not nearly as bad as what people thought and so if you go in and look and see the margins are expanding and you take the cloud competing is growing dramatically and love small numbers to be sure, but they really are demonstrating they grow and expand margins at the same time. >> this goes back to tom lee, but do you think the market will pick momentum back up into the end of the year or do you think

whether it's rates or whatever piece we're discussing, it remains a lid on things. >> no, i think we'll get a rally going into year end. it doesn't always happen as we know to go back to 2018 or last year. well, last year it did, but one of the things we have to think about is the earnings ultimately drive. >> we don't talk about them very much except during earnings season and they are improving and the market has sniffed that out, and i think one of the things that we want to be focused on is who is delivering on margins and that's what we are focused on. many companies particularly in tech were raising emerging markets and we are down from historical highs for the s&p margin, but i still think that's a place where we want to be focused. >> if i'm not mistaken there is a sense or the data shows that corporate revenue as a whole are flat lining and we're not even expecting any growth. if that's the case especially with inflation receding it wouldn't be surprising and it means that companies will try harder to bring earnings growth

out of that. >> some of that is skewed by sectors, right? just from an earnings standpoint, if you took energy out last quarter, we'd be up, 2.5, 4%. energy is down 40, 48%. i think it is an environment where you need to pick your sectors and you need to pick your stocks and indexing is higher in this environment because of the averages. we have this breadth issue and that's created opportunities for us. >> lastly, i want to ask you about the book, so are you buying an energy and you mentioned oracle or are there others that jump out at you here? >> inenergy, one that we like a lot is eog. it's down in the last year and just in the last three months it's up 16%, but oil, brent is up 33. so you're not seeing is the pull-through, and i think some of that will come through, but separately, you're getting about $7 in dividends and it was 740 in special and seven-year

dividends. so i'm getting paid to wait. so we like that upstream name and in technology we still like names like broadcom. it's one of the largest holdings and we had to trim it. we still hold microsoft. they des gisgraced the dividend, and the dividends are growing 10% per year. that's a great offset to inflation. >> something to give people to think about. you've caused consternation in the offices, nance we this assertion and maybe you can delve into it, even as women are becoming more and more becoming breadwinners, apparently they're still delegating to men. give us the data. is it a problem or is it the sense of who's in charge, but i'm still aware or do they not even know? so just explain a little bit about this dynamic. >> yeah. so it is unpopular. i love men, i want that on the record. i was somewhere and i said women

are better investors and created a kerfuffle. women will control $93 trillion in assets in 2023, sorry, and they tend to excuse themselves from the conversation. research shows that at the margin, millennials are deferring more than the baby boomer generation which is my generation and we weren't all that engaged, but the problem, kelly, is the average age for divorce for a woman is 30 years old. average age of a widow for women, obviously widow in the u.s., 59. that's exactly how old i was. you're not ready. it's too young and if you haven't been engaged, i was, obviously in the process it's devastating and no safety net to carry you through and typically these women do not have a relationship with the adviser because the husband maintained the relationship. so they end up firing them to the tune of two-thirds. that's expensive. it hurts performance. i see it every day in our firm, and it's -- it really bothers me and now the journal had an

article about women baby boomers, not just women being homeless in retirement. people are not saving enough. so what i try to encourage in the book is it's never too late. one of the examples is a woman who started investing on a fixed income and died with $5 million. >> wow. >> she lived to be 102 so there is that and there are a lot of anecdotes and stories from my kleins who have done things right and some who have not done things right and hopefully people and women in particular will be able to learn from it. >> i always like it when people bring their own life to bear. the second edition. you are getting the full sweat of her brow. nancy, thank you so much for your time. >> appreciate it. >> nancy tengler. she and other market experts are joining the cnbc adviser summit on october 12th as we head into the last quarter of the year. to join scan the qr code to register or visit

cnbc.events.com/fa. a tentative deal and it's not finalized yet and nor an agreement with the actors have been reached and what it means for all of these stocks involved. plus hotel owners are under pressure as travel demand eases and cost to service loans rise. could this be the next big pressure point in commercial real estate. we'll ask the ceo of one of the big cre lenders about what he sees ahead and as we go to break the the dow is down by 18 points, reversing earlier loes and the russell 2000 small caps. you know what they sell. sell rosh hashanah, buy yom kippur. we're back after this. ♪ net ♪ this "the exchange" on cnbc.

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[ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "the exchange." hollywood writers have reached a tentative agreement with the studios and streamers after nearly 150 days on the picket line, but my next guest says the media recalibration is far from over. let's bring in laura martin, needham's senior analyst covering media and tech. laura, good to have you back here. where are we in this process? >> so we -- thank goodness, i am so happy the writers are going back to work after five months. it's very important for the l.a. economy and very important for the writers too often because they're behind the camera they get undervalued, so i applaud this decision to get the writers

back to work. we still have sag-aftra withmore than 600 people off of work and the two unions voted and agreed on the population that they want to take the deal, but it looks like, you know, we're inching toward that settlement day, and it seems like the writers will be finished first which is fantastic news. >> i'm trying to -- i don't know if we know the full details of the agreement yet, but it sounds like they want -- they're going to get a bigger share of shows that do well. they will get a pay raise in general. how significant are these potential wins to the companies that now have to provide them? >> so -- so, great question because really the guild only talk about the youngest writers, right? so the big-budget writers that work on marvel or "star wars" or these big hundred million dollar movies, this agreement doesn't govern them.

those guys have talent agent and they have much more. this is about people coming into the industry at minimum, numbers of writers on the sets they've got. they compromised on ai and they did get a bigger participation on hit franchisees when they write them. they did get a higher base raise, but it's talking about the 20 to 25-year-old who is just coming into the business and protecting the living wage for that, let me call it new wrung of writers. so it makes it more attractive to become a writer in hollywood than if you didn't have the deal terms, but it doesn't affect the studios who are doing $100 and $200 million movies because it doesn't affect the base-level person. they're people who are well established, typically. >> you don't think this changes the financial picture for them? >> i do not. i think this is the 90-10 rule. this is about having the union be able to have people to come be writers in hollywood and it's important for writers to have a living wage. so it's great for the low-end writers who are new to the

union, but this isn't going to affect the big price tag for writers on big films. >> i'm curious in the case of disney, as well, where we saw this massive investment in parks last weekend. i know you were a little concerned about it, but they looked across the businesses and even if this doesn't change the economics or streaming, the xhibs are already pretty challenging. what else can they do to try to turn that in their favor at a time when it's almost like parts of the new espn, and i know they're not significant in terms of what espn used to be and it was just massive, but where does this leave disney, in particular, do you think? >> so iger said on stage to those of us who went to orlando to see him speak that he's going to cut the number of films and tv series and they're also going to lower the average budget for tv series and films they're doing all of which is about focus and they're also going to focus on franchises like specifically on pixar.

they did, two -- they did two new films "elemental" and they've done okay and he said no, we need to go back and do sequels of pixar franchisees that have built-in audiences because that is lower risk because you bring an audience with you to the next sequel, so i expect us to see more sequels sort of like the avengers have done. maybe the spin-offs of individual characters that grew popular, but that is a lower risk and higher return, typically than creating a whole new set of fans from scratch as disney has done pixar and we'll see that end and go back to the walt disney company. >> if this was part of the major recalibration happened and the major streamers and content providers and what is the next chapter in the story, do you think, broadly speaking? >> so i think what's next is the french were right. the more things change the more they stay the same. i think what happens and the

data point i would use is the charter disney deal. charter, comcast and all of these linear tv companies say you want a raise? you have to put your streaming assets here, either for a fee and charter will pay disney plus a fee and espn will go for free and that's about to happen and all of the streaming services will get reboundeled with linear tv which will slow the demise of linear tv because the pinpoint right now is you can't find the content, right? >> totally. it's also on a streamer that you don't have. charter and comcast, these linear tv who have all their sports will pull in all their streamers before they give their companies a raise and fee and everything's going to be there. so people will go back to linear even though it's expensive just because they can find the content that they want to watch in one place. >> does that mean when i'm going back to scrolling through my channels and i'll see a channel for -- it takes me to a digital

destination and are they also going to have to change the user interface? >> i think it will go to an app-focused or like a roku or samsung and one of them will be comcast linear oftv and that wi have all of your sports. if i were comcast i would do nfl and do them individually and you can go to tubi or pluto and everything will be on the page including an app for your spectrum which is your linear tv ecosystem. >> so then last question as i think through this is what does it mean for some of the smaller players? the fubos and some of those gaining market share and if they get folded into one giant content library? >> right. so i think the competitive stuff that people are angry about is the plethora of entertainment content, none of which you can find and you can't search for it and sometimes it's over here,

lord of the ring, that's the frustration. fu bshg o, as you know it's sports first and typically men, 78% men who want to watch a single season like soccer and just turn it off. cable companies don't like that. if you're not a sport that yould want for sport fans that want a single sen, and then put it on for the other six months of the year. ? back to the future. what has been the point? we'll save that for the next information. thank you so much. laura martin joining us from needham. >> still to come, oil is on pace for a four-month wen streak as the man who called it the super cycle will tell us what happened and we will talk to the head of commodities jeff curry joins us ahead.

the ai arms race and we've got details and whether this means it is no longer acting like switzerland. the shares up 1.6% with the dow down 151. the exchange is back after this. ♪ trying to get to you ♪ ♪ i was dreaming while i drove the long straight road ahead ♪ ♪ i drove all night to get to you ♪ the distance is nothing when home means everything. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're

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welcome back to "the exchange." the dow is in the red by 54 points while the nasdaq is up 21 points. we had pressure earlier on that's let up somewhat. speaking of that pressure which is largely from the rates complex. let's get a check on treasurys and the yield 452 and a bit off the session highs and moments ago, moody's warned the government shutdown would be a credit negative albeit a short-lived one. the two-year yield 5 1/8 and the

30 year at 6.64% is the highest since 2011. a couple of the other stock movers include shares of alcoa moving off their lows and still down 5% after naming a new president and ceo effective immediately. outgoing ceo will serve as strategic adviser through the end of the year and both kaiser and century aluminum are up more than 10% while it is down almost 25. let's get to tyler matheson now for a cnbc news update. >> kelly, thank you very much. the biden administration loaning poland $2 billion for its defense modernization program. the state department announced the deal saying it seeks to strengthen poland's armed forces after russia's invasion of ukraine. the u.s. will give poland $60 million toward the cost of the $2 billion loan. poland will use the funds to buy weapons from the u.s. all of the students who were injured in the new york bus crash last week are expected to recover, that from the school superintendent who says some students are still struggling.

the bus roll over killed two adults and left others seriously injured. the national transportation safety board investigating that mishap. costco offering its members medical care through online marketplacesis me. it will cost $29 million. es is sesame will ask patients to pay directly without going through insurance. >> interesting. thank you, tyler and a quick check on shares costco, they're down half a percent on news. office problems are so last year. the new commercial real estate concern could be hotels. shares of marriott and hilton seeing strong gains this year, but it's a different story for struggling properties in particular. details and who could bear the fallout. that's ahead. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us.

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♪ welcome back to "the exchange." it's no secret 2020 was a rough year for the travel hospitality industry as the world shut down, but you may be surprised to hear that some of those pain points are still playing out. moody's reporting that nearly half of the commercial

mortgage-backed liquidations were hotel loans that defaulted in 2020. meanwhile, fitch warned on hotel profits last week citing weakening leisure demand and rising costs. my next guest bears a recession next year and it will only get worse and it will hurt the operators' ability to hurt payments. let's bring in larry walker. great to have you here. >> thanks, kelly. are you the walker from the name or parts of a lineage here? >> it's my grandfather who started the company in 1937 and then my dad ran it and now i have the privilege to run it every day. >> wow. okay. so you guys have been through a couple of cycles. it's interesting to highlight what's going on with hotels because it's not garnering a lot of headlines and it seems somewhat site selective and it stems from higher pages and in some cases rising insurance costs. >> i think you r to think about a couple of things and the delinquencies, those are loans

that defaulted in 2020 during the pandemic that are now just getting worked out. something people forget is the commercial real estate is a very slow-moving industry, if you will, in the sense that you might have a default and you're not going to get a workout of that default for several years and so the thing now as it relates to hospitality is if we have weakness in the consumer and if we go to a harder landing than currently projected that will pull back on consumer spending and that will pull back on travel and leisure and that will soften the operatoring of hotels across the country and leisure has held up exceedingly well and the one soft spot as it relates to hospitality has been office and hospitality, if you will and cbv hotels and they've had weakness and travel is back and people are traveling to see clients. people are traveling to visit offices and as a result of that, unless we have a harder landing than projected i would think that hospitality holds up pretty well. >> that makes sense, and i like

the first in, first out idea where yes, we're seeing defaults. is it still going to be all about office? >> ooh, that's -- i mean, first of all, let me double click on your comment about first in and first out. the issue on hospitality is that they change their rents every single day. unlike office where you have long-term leases in place, so if an office building has problems during the pandemic and people aren't going to the office and the owners still get lease payments from those renters of those offices, and so office has the longest leases. hospitality has the shortest leases and everything in between multi-family and retail and industrial all sit somewhere in between every day the rents get changed and the leases change every single day to longer term on office with the tern-year lease and hospitality is always first in and always first out, but there is a lot of focus on office and back to office. i would say that people's view on office is actually getting

better. >> sure. >> people are back after the labor day holidays in the office, and i think we continue to see improvement on office fundamentals going forward. >> no, i agree that it seems the longer we can draw this out and see the normalization continue and hopefully give those people who are exposed, time to work through it, maybe the less will be felt in the long run. you know this whole industry better than any of us. is there anywhere that you're watching where you say, you know what? this is where, you know, kind of the exposures lie and some of the people -- >> we've talked about the banks. i don't know -- just talk me through that. how do you watch the dynamics play out potentially over the next couple of years? >> the first question when rates started to go up is we have significant defaults in bank portfolios there would be a solvency issue for any of the u.s. banks. it is clearly so far in an earnings issue and not a solvency issue. higher rates meaning that commercial real estate at large has a harder time paying their

debt service coverage which brings the cash flows on those properties down, but that doesn't necessarily mean we're going to get massive default which is then make it so you have bank foreclosures. so the first question is how is the banking system? so far it's held up pretty darn well. the second question would be, okay, in this higher interest rate environment , where is thee opportunity? where are investors putting their money? multi-family has been a great asset class because at the end of the day people need to live somewhere. people are still paying rents and living in apartment buildings and the fundamentals of multi-family have fallen off quit a bit and it is still viewed as one of the strongest commercial real estate asset classes and on the other end of the spectrum is the area where everyone has doubts because of that to office and a class office, kelly, has held up extremely well. why? because those firms who want it back in the office have a highly magnetized space and therefore

they're leasing class a space across the country. it's the b and the c class office space that is not doing well, that has significant vacancy and therefore potential for significant defaults. >> absolutely. >> and i like what they say this for office it's an earnings issue and one of the office owners we spoke with last week, we let the a class buildings and are getting higher renewable rates than expected and we will leave it on that hopeful note and thank you very much for joining us today. i appreciate it and willy walker, ceo of walker and dunlop. still to come, shares of amazon making it the best performer of the mag 7 today and the tech giant joining the likes of microsoft and salesforce announcing an investment ithn e chatgpt rival and the details and implications of that deal next.

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a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪ ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. welcome back. amazon shaking up the ai space investing up to $4 billion in a start-up, it's often seen as a rival to chatgpt maker and open ai. our deirdre bosa joins us with the details in today's tech check. hi, deet ra.

>> i say anthropic. this deal hits on a few different angles on how it's in generative ai. they're also investing in some of the buzziest start-ups. think microsoft and open ai. the $13 billion investment that gave it an exclusive partnership. in this case, amazon is investing in anthropic open ai rival so significantly less and it is an exclusive. anthropic has an investment from google and that's amazon's strategy as well. they have said in the past that there is not going to be one model and it hasn't released one chat bot that consumers can interact with. instead, it's amazon's strategy has been more on the developer side. so it's providing developers with tools to build their own chat bots. another key part of amazon's strategy that the company really

says is its edge and it's custom ai chips. there's two of them and it's part of this collaboration, kl kelly and it will be trading its foundational models and it's a big vote ofconfidence and i wish there were more details and we don't know how much anthropic and nvidia gpu which is far and away the most dominant and seen as the best chips on the market to develop generate of ae applications. >> maybe taking a step at not so neutral in the ai wars for now. deirdre, thank you very much. our deirdre bosa. oil prices have jumped 20% over the past four months and goldman sees more game ahead with energy the only positive sector this month and jeff currie will join us and if brent will reach $100 a barrel by spring. that's next.

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welcome back to "the exchange." energy prices are holding steady with wti just under $90 a barrel

and brent at $93. oil on pace to record its fourth straight month of gains, with russia announcing relaxing the fuel ban, will the pause remain slow? let's ask jeff currie. great to see you. welcome back. >> great. thanks for having me. pleasure to be here. my last time as gs head of commodities research. >> the end of an era. are we going to see you again in another form or is this it? you're going out to ski slopes and we'll never see you again? >> stay tuned. there will be a following act. but i'm going to try to enjoy the ski slopes along the next three to four months. >> i can imagine. >> we'll be back. by the way, i was thinking about, you know, i was on this show in april of 2020, the day we went negative. if i look back at the highlights of the last 27 1/2 years, i had

the privilege to be talking about prices when they went negative in april of 2020. actually it was on this show at this time. >> thank you for that. it's been fun to -- every time i see you i think about all the extremes that have happened in such a short period of time. we had negative 30 or whatever back then. we popped up to 130 last year. i really thought the best articulation that i heard of what was going on in the global economy the last several years was you talking about the purchasing power that shifted from basically the wealthy to everybody else. and the fact we were running out of molecules as a result. >> yep. by the way, those types of pressures on the system, they have not gone away. we'll be talking about them for the years to come. >> if i were to say, okay, the last time that our viewers get to hear from you, your parting thought is we're in a super cycle that still has legs to it

or is it just oil now because of underinvestment and capacity and the energy transition? what's the next 5 to 10 years setting us up for? >> every commodity out there -- in fact, we still stand by the view that copper is the one best positioned over the next year because, you know, copper is the new oil. if you're going to electrify the world, given all the elements in the periodic table, the only thing that conducts electricity sufficiently is copper. strong demand story. like oil, underinvestment on the supply side. inventories are low. the only headwind is the strong dollar and the property market in china. as we look out to next year and beyond, we think it will go above $110 a ton. we remain positive in the complex. copper is the best position. oil is just as well positioned, but it doesn't have as long of legs as copper. >> there's a war on oil. no one is declaring a war on

copper. looking at what the uk government is doing, the hopes of maybe, you know, shoring up some electoral support, they're walking back some of their major transition plans. at the same time california is pushing ahead. you know, i guess i look at something like oil and say, yeah, i can see the supply will be challenged. i look at copper and wonder if it will be a repeat of the famous urlich simon wager, where if there's a shortage, oil will fix that. >> the thing about copper, it takes decades to bring on supply. you need capital. one of the key points across all these commodities, it's the restriction on capital that creates the problems, not so much the commodity itself. copper has a double whammy, not only is it not getting capital, it takes a long time to produce.

the bottom line near-term, i agree with you, oil is the one with the most upside. >> are we still in a super cycle or is that history now? >> no, absolutely it's not history. we firmly stand by that view. you look at the green capex that drive it more broadly, it's exceeding all expectation. green capex demand for china the first half of this year is up 150%. these types of growth rates make the commodities boom of the 2000s look relatively weak. so, when we think about the stimulus that's going to come off of the ira, repowered eu looking out to 2025, this is real demand for commodities. it will stimulate oil demand as well. we're sitting here near $100 a barrel on oil last week, what was driving it is demand exceeding expectations. you're up more than 500,000 barrels a day even above our

bullish expectation. demand is a part of the picture across all these commodities. >> wouldn't be a cnbc interview, jeff, if i didn't try to pin you down on your oil price target. when are we going over 100? and where is the level of demand destruction? 130 i hear. do you want to put a number to that? >> economically, historically we put it in the 125 to 130, but you have to account for the dollar and the dollar is extraordinarily strong, which brings that number down. if you put a weak dollar on it, it gives you room to run to the upside. if you think about your starting point, we're sitting at $93 a barrel with an incredible strong dollar back drop, the dollar begins to weaken and it gives you room to run to the upside. you have to put it in the context of what's going on with the dollar, that triggers it around the rest of the world. >> i imagine the level of the

dollar, i don't know if they -- who is it now, stroyven? don? >> don has replaced me. he has a great background in doing this. he's a microeconomist. the team is incredibly well staffed going forward. you have nick snowden on the medal side and sam on the gas side. it's in good hands. i look forward to reading what they'll be publishing going forward. >> i want to ask you a biggest regret or biggest thing you've learned. something like that to close us out. >> do not underestimate the power of liquidity. i look back at these markets, particularly in the 2000s, we do fundamental analysis, balance tables, liquidity, as we witnessed last year when they were draining the market with liquidity, we were all bullish on fundamentals and this market kept going down.

in the 2000s, fundamentals were quite bearish but the market kept going up. why? liquidity kept driving it. if there is anything i can leave with the listeners, have a profound appreciation for dollar liquidity when you think about this in the context of fundamentals. >> i love it. it comes back to everything else we cover day in and day out. thank you very much for your time and thank you for joining us. >> pleasure. >> congrats. jeff currie departing goldman sachs. that does it for "the exchange." i'll see you on the other side on "power lunch." er, but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

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welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen. hollywood writers reaching a tentative deal with studios to end their strike after 150 days but nothing is finalized yet. the ink is not dry. we're hitting the road ck