material, but the franchises say its services but mcdonald's says it's not services, we're not cutting back oservices. >> they're changing the name to royalties, that's what the noa says, if you change this name does it change what's expected to provide us? >> got time for that ten-year? >> we have to make time. 4.54 was the last print. interest rates are moving higher today. stocks are trying to shake it off. we're still talking about 12-year highs. >> "closing bell" is right now. welcome to "closing bell," i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner at post 9 at the new york stock exchange. stocks treading gingerly into a new week. the ten-year treasury yield ticking above 4.5%. the dollar index making a new ten-month high. big tech and energy trying to

prop up the s&p 500. coming up, elizabeth burton of goldman sachs asset management with the results of a new survey and how she's telling clients to position portfolios. first, our talk of the tape. is it still just a standard september setback in the indexes or do the breakdowns below the surface and the rout in the market mean the bulls are losing the benefit of the dow? joining us is brian belski. how are you doing? >> thank you very much for having us. a normal september in our book. >> this is it. by all appearances, i guess if you pan out, that's what it looks like. 6% off the highs. it started right on cue as august got under way. we needed something like this, maybe predicted it, maybe should have expected it. if i look at cyclicals, the general market not able to look at what's happening in the bond

market. that doesn't cause you to rethink it? >> no, it doesn't. you and i go back a long ways, back to the '90s. unfortunately the majority of institutional investors have been in their seat 10, 15 years so they've never really seen this. we think this is part of returning back to normalization. if you go back to 1950, when you have a return in the markets of over 15% through august, you typically have a strong end of the year around 4%. i think 4% is the magic number. the 4% is the average fourth quarter returns since 1950. 4% is the average return when you see a negative september. i think that's going to end up what will happen. as i talk to clients, institutional clients are underperforming. hedge funds are dramatically underperforming because they've been so negative most of the year and they love this action in september. i think earnings have come in

and they've been solid. i think third quarter earnings will be good as well. i think we have a decent chance at a liftoff. history shows it's pretty normal to have a liftoff, especially considering how strong the first eight months of the year were. >> everything does line up. if you're going to be combing through the archives and saying what other situations match up to the market experience of this year, it's generally pretty encouraging. i guess the only question is, you know, in july we had a solid consensus that a soft economic landing was very likely. people seem to be positioned roughly accordingly. now it's a little bit of doubt creeping in, or maybe a lot of doubt creeping in. do you think the economy can handle what 7.5% 30-year mortgage rates and oil prices at $90 a barrel can throw at it? >> i think so. because first off, on oil, it's deman outstripping supply for the first time in a long time. i think coming off of what we

had, a strong summer in terms of people traveling, it's really a supply issue right now trying to match up with demand. wheel see what happens a year from now. when you look out and plan when you're building out on the corporate side, i think that energy costs will be going down next year. that's number one. in terms of the economy, look at how some of these consumer strokes have done and held in there nicely. heading into the holiday shopping season, i think there's some very strong have or have-nots. it will be the online side that will do well. high-end will do well. kind of the lower end, the consumer staple consumer stocks that would include costco and walmart, but on the online side, amazon is primed -- no pun there -- to rebound. amazon had a tougher year last year. we think amazon is quite well positioned heading into the holiday. >> does that go for other stocks in the amazon category?

by that i mean, you know, the $500 billion and up consensus favorites among the growth companies. as much as they've come in off the highs, they have not surrendered relative performance to the average stock since the top of the s&p 500 in late july. >> they really haven't. that's a wonderful point. you go back to this term normal. we've seen "normal corrections" in these stocks and it's quite healthy. we like to think of apple, microsoft, google, netflix. we had healthy pullbacks and opportunities to add to core positions over the next three to five years. in terms of the high multiple names, even the forward multiples on nvidia and the like are looking more attractive. we said all along, you want to be more growth at a reasonable price and map out a high multiple name with a lower multiple name especially in the

semiconductor space and that will help portfolio positions and more of this kind of stock picking going forward. >> yeah. that seems like not all boats are getting lifted even if things turn out to be not so scary in the economy. let's bring in brin tarkenton and emily rowan. welcome to you both. the big question is, as we said before, if this is a normal pullback, when would it become something more scary whether it's because of what's going on with bonds or just the market action itself? >> it's a normal pullback. i agree with what brian said. so far this is a regular healthy pullback. from july, peaks were 5.5%, 5.8% off. now you have to look at technicals. i think technicals take a more

front seat because the fundamentals, we're not going to get new fundamentals until earnings come out and you will have to re-rate or re-qualify what these valuations should be. for the nasdaq, which is important to look at, as the two and ten continue to go higher, especially the ten-year, those previous ceilings of 5 and 4.25 are the floor. now the nasdaq is under pressure and we know the tech stocks in aggregate are about 40% of the s&p. you want to see that 4,350 on the s&p. intraday we can move around. you want to see us close above that. on the nasdaq, we're below the 50-day, below the 100-day. if you look at the qqqs, i think the 200-day is at 3.28. i think you need to see a

catalyst for that to happen. if i were trading, i would want to be patient and not put on new trades right now because the s&p from that july high continues to make lower highs and lower lows. you want to see some settling out of rates to start getting a base before you put on new positions as a trade over the next three, four months. >> yeah. emily, you know, whether, in fact, the market does kind of hold these levels and whether it's just kind of going through a normal turbulent period, it seems as if investors are trying to struggle with exactly what the economic impact will be of the fed's current stance and how strong the recovery has been. did anything change for you last week with the way the fed positioned its outlook for rates staying high for longer? >> not really. we saw chair powell come out with a hawkish hold and sort of taking the cuts off the table and leaving the door open to

more hikes. i don't think it much mat ftersf we see one more hike or not. the damage has been done. we although there's a lagged impact of fed tightening. we have not seen that bite the economy yet in the form of the unemployment rate going on and more cracks in the labor market. what we see happening is the cost of capital goes up and up and up every single day. it's amazing to watch the ten-year treasury yield. today back up 10 basis points on no news whatsoever. we're also at the same time seeing inflationary pressures receding and revenue growth coming off record lows what we expect to happen from here, companies will need to start defending their margins. we'll learn more about this in earnings season. the biggest cost most companies have is labor. we eventually think the lagged impact of fed tightening will tip the economy into recession, will cause those cracks in the

labor market to form but we're not there yet. i think rates rising to this extent are certainly spooking equity markets as of late. >> it's interesting. we should listen to what austan goolsbee said this morning on "squawk box" about the current stance or his current thought about how long rates might have to stay up here. >> i've been trying to emphasize that pretty soon in here the question is going to stop being, well, how much they going to raise and it's going to transform into how long do we need to hold rates at this kind of restricted level to feel convinced that we're back on this path to 2%? and that's healthy. >> brian, that's clearly the mode they're in. you know, maybe the fed is done. maybe there's more to do. do you think the market can make its peace with that? they seem not in any hurry to try and pivot away from higher for longer even if the economy

sputters. >> i do think that. again, brin talked about history. what's the ten-year average in terms of the rate over the last 50 years? 5%. again, we've reared an entire generation of invests who think stocks can only go up if rates go down. actually, no. the risk return, if you look at standard deviations in the risk return ratio, it's better when rates are higher. that means the economy is still pretty good. i think this recession camp, the waiting for recession is a primrose path than anything. we're in the camp of the rolling recession has already happened in terms of other industries and sectors. now we'll go back into picking asset classes in sectors. we think small caps -- small and mid caps will be a big part of that because if you look at the public small mid cap areas, these companies are in amazing condition with respect to

balance sheets, cash flow and earnings. we think that's the lost gem for the next five years. >> bryn, it's an interesting thought. you can look at this market and say it's been uneven, maybe dominated by the mega gaps if people get concerned about the economy, you say, well, most stocks have not participated. they look cheaper than the indexes? does that mean it's opportunity or the smaller stocks giving you a warning. >> i think the smaller stocks are following their playbook. i think you would want to look at individual names, but sp splaying small cap and small cap value, i would like to avoid. what sector is most susceptible to rates? smaller companies. those have balance sheets that are much more susceptible to cost of funding as well as in addition to how strong or how weak the economy is. i feel that we want to be defensive. we like materials and energy,

not defensive at all, we like technology. i think as a sector and as a whole, i struggle that we had 13 years of zero rates. while brian may be right the average ten-year is 0.5%, we had no time in history, even after the depression, you had zero rates for 13 years and qe 1 through 5 and now that qt is coming off. we don't know how that mosaic will rear itself. when people go to trans act, anyone, whether it's a company or individual, when you go trans act with these higher rates, it just costs so much more. i think we'll continue to have the economy weaken. maybe nothing breaks. i think ultimately something will break from having rates this high. i'm not so sure that svb was the last one to havepoorly

managed balance sheet. you can't invest for an event, but they're out there in the market and people should be aware of them. >> as people are celebrating the 25th anniversary of the capital management meltdown. emily, one of the points some of the economic optimists have been making is rates are higher because the economy seems like it's better, but the defensive sectors of that market have not really outperformed. the equity market itself is not necessarily hunkering down for bad times. what do you say to that? >> this is a bit of a 2022 flashback. we're seeing trade perking up a little bit. defensive showing some signs of life here after lagging materially so far this year. you're seeing some of the same macro factors. a stronger dollar, higher rates.

we have housing affordability the lowest or the least it's been in u.s. history. auto loans at record highs. we think consumers will start to make tradeoffs. they'll do the math and they may not necessarily buy the stuff they want but they'll do the things they need. areas like infrastructure, investments, utilities, areas like health care that offer defense. they offer quality. some value. they have a 20% return on equity. we do think that there could be some legs here to this relative out performance of more defensive equities. you want to invest in this market. you don't want to get overly defensive, but this is not the time to reach for risk. >> health care one of the few areas that are green today. thank you very much. appreciate it. let's get to our question of the day. we want to know, where do you see opportunity now? stocks, bonds, commodities or

cash? head to @cnbcclosingbell on x to vote. we're following the latest developments in the uaw strike. this as president biden is set to join the picket line tomorrow. phil lebeau is here. >> i don't think anything will happen until after the president steps on the rug. here's what's going on with the, aw and the strike. there were very active talks between the uaw and ford. three big hurdles right now, total wage hike, cutting and ending wage tiers, and cost of

living adjustments. remember, those were stripped out back in 2008 and 2009. now the uaw would like those brought back in. in terms of the total number of workers on strike right now, it's 12% of the uaw. this comes down to how competitive can be the big three be versus the for rib counterparts and tesla. there's 20 states where we have uab strikes going on. you have picketers who will be meeting with president biden tomorrow. we're not sure of the exact time or how much of a dauk aog and p show this will be. does he quietly meet with them and turn to a pool camera? will he have a bunch of cameras there? nobody is sure. he will make it clear he wants the uaw members to get more

money and to stand for their right in collective bargainiing look at shares of gm, ford and stellantis, the good news is there's some progress being made. whether that means no more strikes called by the uaw, it's too late to say that. >> phil, waiting for some sense of urgency perhaps to emerge. we are just getting started here. up next, navigating the volatility. elizabeth burton is breaking down fresh data and tell us where she's seeing opportunity into year-end. we're live from the new york stock exchange, you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere?

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welcome back. we've got 39 minutes left in the trading day. let's check on some top stocks to watch. seema mody is here with those. williams-sonoma at its highest levels since august of last year after green equity investors revealed a 5% stake in the company. green equity is the arm of leonard green and the filing indicates this is a massive investment. shares are up 12% at this hour. and alcoa trading at its lowest level since march of 2021 after the aluminum company announced its executive vice president would take over the ceo role effective immediately. harvey will stay on as a strategic adviser. shares down 6.5%. >> thank you. the major averages are closing in on their first negative quarter of the year

with the nasdaq down more than 8% from its summer high and our next guest says the setup for stocks could get choppier from here into year-end. let's bring in elizabeth burton of goldman sachs. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> so, we have, as wesaid, the nasdaq down 8%. global indexes down at least 6% or 7%. also bonds are off. we know that to say the least. where does that leave you in terms of figuring out where some opportunities have been created and where there's a better risk/reward. >> what's interesting is we just completed our annual global private alternative investment survey at goldman sachs. it's available on our website. we found that investors are becoming more constructive on the markets with at least 90% of them thinking the markets are stabilizing or improving over the last year. what's also interesting is in that same report they think that private markets, private equity can be expensive while public

equity is expensive. they see public real estate as somewhat cheaper. does that fit with how you're viewing the world or how you at the firm would suggest you should position? >> i think there are some differences. one interesting thing from the report is that investors are much more bearish on the eurozone. some of the opportunities we see for diversifying the portfolio can be in the eurozone. there's some selective value plays there that we like. european banking sector, energy stocks. so there's some things in the survey that don't quite match with what we're seeing on the opportunity side. >> what's your take on just how asset markets in general are digesting this change on the yield front? whether it's going to last a long time or not. the cost of debt has been going up. you are seeing rates rise, cash pays you. does that change the landscape in a fundamental way? >> for me personally, i've been very repetitive on this. one of the things that investors

should consider in this rising rate environment and in particular the picked income side is the question that i keep getting from investors is when i should add duration back in? what should i do with fixed income? if we're in an environment where inflation remains sticky and high and the correlation stays somewhat positive between bonds and equities, it doesn't mean you shouldn't shy away from fixed income. there are still positive benefits to adding income into your portfolio, especially at these levels of interest rates. it also means you may need to look towards real assets for other sources of diversification, which we are seeing investors do. we're seeing infrastructure, real assets minus real estate becoming more interesting. >> that would be things like commodities or infrastructure, things like that? >> sure. definitely in commodities. i know one of my colleagues was on today talking about the opportunity in the copper market. institutional investors is more challenging. you just don't go out and buy commodities. you can overweight cash to some extent. i'm hearing real assets that are

more digital in nature or digital components, like sports franchises or buying into the world of competitive sports. >> people have to range pretty far to get non-correlated assets. if we're back in a world -- i assume you think this is the case where stocks and bonds will move together as they did in the '80s and '90s. >> we expect those correlations may come down over the next six months but they could stay higher. we don't have total clarity what will happen on the long end of the rate range. so, there could be a period of time where that correlation stays sticky. what's interesting to me is that i thought fiscal year end ends for most institutions in july. we did not see a lot of asset allocation changes. i thought we would. when you want to change your portfolio, you just go out and do it. if i'm an institution and i want to change my portfolio, i might have to go find a new offensive coordinator and that could take six months and my gms buy in and

then you could get rid of me. it's a different game. >> you mentioned institutions like pension funds having their fiscal year there. i have seen the case made that defined pension funds may be overdefined and they might as well sit there in cash and stay safe as opposed to adding risk. >> i think it will be challenging for them to just sit there. they may not be changing drastically their allocations. what i have seen happen is totally different from last year. i'm hearing more questions from institutions on can we hedge our portfolio. the last 12 months they were saying how can we diversify within asset cases, now they're saying what do you think of a total portfolio hedge. >> sounds interactive if you can pull it off. elizabeth, great to see you. thank you very much. >> great to see you. up next, amazon's $4 billion ai bet. shares of the tech giant moving higher on the news. how might this big move in the artificial intelligence battle impact amazon's bottom line?

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amazon set to invest up to $4 billion in anthropic. >> this is the way big tech is pioneering the big shift into ai. it is sort of similar to microsoft and openai, that was a $13 billion investment for an exclusive partnership. here, amazon will invest up to $4 billion. it is smaller and it's not exclusive. keep in mind, too, anthropic already has a partnership from google. in this particular deal, amazon will be the primary cloud provider. certainly a win for that cloud business and a vote of

confidence for amazon's custom ai chips. two of them. anthropic is going to be training its models -- i guess it is still an open question how much it will be relying on nvidia gpus, still the dominant chip in ai compute power. the newer companies, the openais, the anthropics of the world need to do these partnerships. i don't know if you've seen this video published by openai. the one that takes video and chat inputs, you can see how these applications are developing. it's a bicycle. someone wants to know how to move the seat and it's pretty incredible. this is the next iteration of chatgpt and generative ai. >> it is remarkable. i wonder what is the message, is it effectively them telling their aws clients we'll be right there with whatever you need in

this area, we'll build our capacity. don't worry about it. or is there something even on the consumer front that down the road is going to help amazon? >> that's an interesting question. amazon's strategy so far has been hey, we're here for the developers. we won't worry too much about consumer applications because there's going to be so many models. there will be one for health care, one for treating. so this deeper partnership with anth anthropic, with this deeper partnership, it says they're making a bet on cloud, that is claude, their general ai language model. it's getting to the consumer side of things, but in the past the company said there won't be one model to rule them all but it wants to give access to all the developers and all the aws customers. anthropic. there it is.

i said it too many times. >> all right. thank you very much. here to discuss further is the head of internet research at eve evercore, mark mahaney. talk to us about this. >> this is almost like going back to microsoft two years ago when they were making this internal decision on whether or not to invest in openai. they were trying to develop gen ai competencies internally and they realized they needed to get out of microsoft to do that. this is an acknowledgment by amazon that they can't do it all organically. there is a bit of a defensive element in here. the reason it's a positive is that the company is now willing to make these external investments. anthropic is pretty well known in the ai community and in the vc community. it's considered a high quality asset for some time. that's why it has some investors

like google in there. amazon is making an investment. aws is making an investment in an asset that's considered high quality. this should increase the range of strategic and operational options for amazon. >> it sort of feels as if over the last few months the temperature has come down a little bit, just in terms of the street's intensity of feeling like everybody has to have some kind of killer app in this world. microsoft obviously down off its highs a fair bit. talk of chatgpt volumes coming off the boil as well. how much does it matter at this point beyond just saying, look, we'll participate as things develop? >> i don't know. near-term there's a debate as to what's happening, whether we're seeing this reacceleration in cloud industry revenues. andy there were third data points that were skeptical of that. the latest checks we've done,

it's here. the inflection is here. we've moved beyond the optimization cycle and now we're at a point where new workloads including ai workloads are starting to boost up cloud computing growth rates. aws should participate in that and so should google cloud, microsoft azure and a few other players. that's the big point for investors. i think this is just one strategic overlay on that. i like aws here. i think the industry is finally starting to recover and you can get revenue growth, acceleration and aws. this is the cherry on top, this anthropic investment. >> if i could turn you to meta. they will have this event maybe highlighting some of their ai efforts. but also the stock, it's up this month and then down 5%. there's a lot of enthusiasm building among several fronts. how are you thinking about the stock after a 150% gain this year? >> i'm not budging on it. it remains one of our top three picks. it's uber, amazon and meta.

it trades 16 times gaap earnings. most things indicate that we're seeing strengthening reacceleration in growth and the way you want to see it. meta, to their discredit they got blind-sided by the apple privacy changes. to their credit, they invested aggressively to ai and they used it to return on ad spending for marketers. that's why you are seeing an acceleration in growth. this is the best acceleration story you get in online advertising. i like meta here. also this odd point which they have done reasonably well with, the llama model. they don't have the enterprise presence like microsoft and aws, even google, but it's impressive the technology that meta has built in-house. i don't think the market gives them credit for that, i will. and i think the stock goes higher from here.

>> with all those things driving the story as well as the cost discipline, you know, campaign that has been in effect for a little while now. people excited about reels engagement, do you need to have a few about the consumer directed ai capabilities, whatever they're going to be announcing there in terms of stuff that users see? does it matter much for the story? >> i don't think it matters too much but i think they've been using generative ai to improve the personalization of your news feed. they're bringing you material, bringing me material that comes from beyond your social networks. they emphasized media rather than social. it's worked. we have higher engagement at meta. you said something that's important. for the unlock on the stock, here's the tag line, the year of efficiency needs to be becomes the years of efficiency. if they show to the market they're willing to growth their operating expenses less than

they grow revenue, they'll be aggressive but not super aggressive, low double digit growth in their expense base, i think the market will reward them with a higher multiple. that's what the market wants to hear. you got rewarded last year for making it the year of efficiency. turn this into the years of efficiency, the stock goes higher. >> we'll look for that. appreciate it. >> thanks. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. seema mody is back with that. >> mike, looking at several stocks that could be impacted by the ongoing strikes, not to mention the labor market. we'll bring you those names in a moment.

17 minutes until the closing bell. the s&p trying to hold on to a quarter percent gain. let's get back to seema mody for the key stocks to watch. >> let's look at carmax higher as wedbush upgrades the stock to outperform with improving profitability. analysts say tight inventories and a prolonged strike from the uaw could support demand and pricing in the used car market. that comes ahead of carmax's earnings report on thursday. movie theater stocks are higher as the writers guild strikes a tentative agreement with the major studios.

amc's ceo said on x, formerly known as twitter, that the world's movie theaters can celebrate the good news as attention returns to the screens actors guild. shares of amc and cinemark are higher. thank you very much. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked where do you see opportunity right now. stocks, bonds, commodities or cash? head to @cnbcclosingbell on x. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us.

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let's get the results of our question of the day. where do you see opportunity right now? stocks are the clear winner. 44%. cash coming in right behind. people looking to buy this dip. up next, biotech's big tumble. the xbi etf hitting a new 52-week low today. what's behind the drop and what it might mean for the sector in the long-ter atnd much more when we take you inside "the market zone."

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"market zone." gabriella santos is about to share her market playbook and angelica on weakness in the biotech space. gabriella, let's start with the market diagnosis before the prognosis. what's been concerning the stock market do you think in the last little while? >> a bit surprising to see the ten-year up ten basis points today. nothing seems to have

fundamentally changed. for the stock market since the end of july, the pop in yields has been concerning. you can see that in the bigger correction and the longer duration stocks and some of the year's winners. in september specifically, we also started to see growth fears emerge. that's behind cyclicals. down 3.8% versus defensives, down 1%. i think it's just this nascent realization that the third quarter is probably the high water mark here for growth. that growth set to slow from here. that is consistent with a soft landing, just slower, not blue skies ahead, and there are some building laundry lists of concerns out there that could make for a softer fourth quarter here. >> so, even in a soft landing you do land. so there is a deceleration under way. to what degree do you think the economy will be able to absorb it? that, to me is the big question. if the fed says, look, we think the economy is strong enough. we're in no hurry to cut.

we need inflation to come into line. the markets seem to hear they're not going to be sensitive to a slowdown fear that really starts to pick up. >> i think the ability for the economy to have a soft landing depends on the labor market. this idea that you have a normalization in the pace of job growth, but you don't have a collapse and that you can have better mix between the demand and the supply side just by lowering job openings at the same time that you have an increase in the labor force participation rate. so far that's played out. so far that's consistent with a soft landing. it all comes back to the jobs market. i think for the fed, really the view that we disagree with is the path for inflation from here. we think we'll get back to 2% much faster than the fed seems to think. as a result, that leaves the door open for rate cuts even in a soft landing scenario. in a way that's faster than

what's priced in. i would have voted in the survey you had previously, i would have been hard-pressed to choose between stocks and bonds, but would have chose bonds over cash. >> so you think there's value being built up in bonds by this pop in yields and real yields being higher, even if it's driven by supply, even if it's non-economic factors? >> we don't expect yields to fall near the kind of rates that prevailed after the financial crisis by any stretch of the imagination. we think we're in a period where we can have positive real yields between 100, 150 basis points. it's just we're over 200 at this point. it seems excessive, especially when markets fully appreciate the slowdown in growth, the idea that it's high for longer not higher for longer. we see a lot of opportunity in the extended sale for fixed income. >> that would also imply that the market maybe overshot its concerns on those fronts.

>> absolutely. we would look at 4.5% on the ten-year as very much a once every 16 years kind of opportunity to lock in yields and benefit from price appreciation. >> interesting. if that were to be near the top, maybe stocks could do okay with that as well. wanted to bring in angelica on this weakness in biotech. it's been pretty pronounced. a lot of times that's an indicator of investor risk appetites or broader concerns about whether the pace of approvals or something else going on there. >> yeah. the spdr s&p 500 biotech etf is hitting a new 52-week low today. it's down about 9% this month. the nasdaq biotechnology index is down about 4% this month as well. that's a stark contrast from earlier this year when we heard such high hopes that there would be a turnaround. this sector has been hit hard over the past few years as investors look away from risk and look towards safer

investments or go into tech with the excitement around ai. >> there's another piece of the investment thesis when it comes to biotechs, you know, a certain number of them will get bought by pharma companies down the road. does that activity seem like it's kind of dormant for now or is it still live? >> we've had a number of deals this year. there's been some big ones and smaller ones, but that doesn't seem to be changing minds. one report out today fromabout fed talking higher for longer, if there's a long-term investment, it's biotech. that's something people don't want to deal with. >> that's for sure. it's right there on its lows that biotech etf. thank you very much. courtney, we've been talking about a little bit of wear and tear on the consumer appetite for lots of things. you're talking about nike and other shoe products.

>> nike will report later this week. there was a survey of consumers, what is also coming up is the student loan payment resumption. i think 87% of people who have these student loans are worried about how they'll manage their monthly expenses. you're worried, where will you cut? apparel and footwear were high on the list. mother than half said they would cut apparel and less than half footwear. that's where foot locker comes into worry and nike. then you have problems at nike any ways because the wholesale channel is pressured with them buying less inventory. 60% of foot locker's inventory is nike. if nike is weak from other reasons, that's a compounding problem. china is a continuing concern for nike. it's been okay. not great. a lot of things weighing on nike which has a flow through to nike. we'll watch apparel companies because it seems like an area people will cut back on.

>> a big part of the nike narrative has always been people pay full price, they want the newest stuff. it's a performance culture. it's innovation, not just i need a pair of shoes, let me find one. is that broken? >> i think some of that is starting to worry some of the analysts studying this and they're worried about promotions coming in, lowering prices, lowering the average selling price for the shoes that are selling. the shoes that are selling are fitness and running and less of the basketball. that's the higher prices. that's a bit of a concern, too, for the margins of nike. >> we'll see what the company has to say. as we head into the close, we're just about at the highs of the day for the s&p 500. very modest moves all around. you see the dow is above 34,000. the s&p 500 up 0.4%. the russell 2000 up a half of a percent. that is the most oversold part of the market. it is still down 11% from its all-time highs.

the ten-year note up 4.254% right now. keeps making new decade-plus highs out there. so far, stock market has been able to handle it at this point. we see the volatility index backing off, under 17. it's still eluding that trip above 20 that a lot of tactical investors wanted to see before feeling the market was due for a durable oversold bounce. as we go out, nasdaq up a half percent. s&p 500 4338. here is morgan with "overtime." stocks closing near highs of the session. the s&p 500 and nasdaq both breaking four-day losing streaks today. that's a score card on wall street. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm morgan brennan. john fn fortt is on assignment today. we have rare can't-miss interviews. we'll speak with jennifer nason

of jpmorgan morgan investment banking who has more t