splashing money out, if they are, how discerning they're going to be. especially as we do see student loan repayments start later this week. we have the impact of higher interest rates. and a number of other factors. including still persistent infrags inflation. markets finishing the day higher. the s&p and nasdaq snapping a four-day losing streak. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. a warning from the bond market. ten-year yields crossing the key 4.5% mark today for the first time since 2007. but it's a relationship with shorter term treasuries that has one trader sending up red flags. plus, crude reality. oil prices up nearly 30% this quarter. and one top exec says the rally is only just begun. what it means for your investment and how you should play the move. and later, under the radar winner in the weight loss drug

craze. we'll talk to the ceo of the manufacturing company with close ties to both eli lilly and novo nordisk. he's on-set tonight to detail how the company is benefiting from the boom in demand. i'm melissa lee. our guest trader tonight, chris verone. and we start off with that steepening of the yield curve. the ten-year's rapid rise to 4.5% and beyond has come much faster, at a much faster pace than the two-year's climb, and that's narrowed the spread between the two treasuries sharply, since hitting a four-decade plus low earlier in the year, the gap has come in by nearly 50 basis points since july. someone here tonight says that could set up for a very rough period in the equities. chris is that person. what do you see? >> it's funny about this business is, people get all worked up about inverted curve, but it's really not the inverted curve that gets you in trouble, it's when the curve begins to come out of inversion, when the

curve starts to steepen. the big story the last three, four months is the steepening of twos and tens. this has been a bear steeper in, so, ten-year yields have backed up, even twos have hovered around five. a little unusual. you only saw that twice historically. 1969-1970 and '73-74. it was the signal you were approaching the tough part of the business cycle. what's interest, when you look at the steepeners, that move going from inverted back to positive has typically been the worst part of the equity cycle. i want to be mindful of what the signal here is. it tends to be a risk off signal, particularly for leadership, and the big story the last four, five, six weeks is how you've seen cyclicality really start to falter, and defensive showing some life. >> when you see the worst part, like, how bad was that period for those two periods of time? >> yeah, i mean, that was the leadup to the recession in '69 and then '73-74. the best part of the curve is when it's very, very steep and

flattening, so, there's misconceptions about the curve. when it's steepening from an inverted position, trouble has followed. >> and there's an argument that this kind of bear steepening is somewhat bullish, because the economy's not falling out of bed and you're not seeing the markets start to price in the short end of the curve. the part about this that just is different and feels different is that some of the steepening is all coming from supply. it's all coming from some dysfunction around our government, possibly. but certainly around refunding. certainly around the dynamic of where i think the global interest rate pattern is going higher, and look at the dollar, by the way. the dollar went up to that, kissed that 106 level. you are basically, i think, breaking out through that march resistance. and you'll probably test it. someone that thought that the dollar was going to go lower, i think it's a crowded trade of people that have been frank listen wrong about this dollar weakening. it's a crowded trade that probably will still see people holding in there. but the dollar is painful for

markets here and that's going toe and toe with the treasury market. >> warning signs are there. the reason people get exorcised about an inverted yield curve, at some point, it's going to resteepen, to your point, the resteepening is when things get dicey. and this bear resteepening, not to get too wonky, it's happening in a very draw dramatic way. the tlt closing below 90, not a good thing, either. and you have to wonder, how long can the market hold in there. ? the s&p has held the august high, that's a good sign. the question is, for how much longer? >> interesting that chris mentioned what this means for this stage of the economic cycle. and two of my favorite bears on the street, mike wilson at morgan stanley, he's talking about consumer, and then marco over at jpmorgan in a note out, just talking about corporate's ability to pass through, the same kind of concept, pass through, you know, higher input

costs and the like. and you say to yourself, as it relates to the economy, you know, we have businesses that probably hit peak margins and really pass through as much as they can, and the consumer from a credit standpoint, it's just tapped. rates have gone up so fast, if you are a lower wage earning and wages -- at least the pace in which they're going up has decelerated a little bit, i'm just hard-pressed to see all of this together is conducive for equities going much higher in the near term. until there's a proper, you know, correction or so. and if you look at that equal weight s&p 500, it was down 9% or so. like seeing down 10% would be an interesting alarm bell with the vix above 20 or something. we haven't gotten there yet, but it might get there, especially if we have a continuation of this move, where the ten-year keeps going higher and we have that resteepening. >> we've always had this conversation about the steepening of the ten-year yield in the context that it makes tech more speculative trades, longer duration trades, less

attractive. so, this is just happening in conjunction of what is going on with what's -- with the yield curve? >> i think so. and when you look at this last leg higher in yields, what's really been hit are the very marginal parts of the equity market. arc is under 40. what was hailed as good ipos, arm and instacart, are back on their lows here. the marginal parts of the market are quite weak. i think it's interesting on the margin point, right, margins under pressure, the things every company needs, people, money, and energy, have all gone up. the cost of all of those have all gone up. we've done a lot of work looking at energy versus discretionary in this part of the cycle. energy's dominance is a late cycle signal, not early. >> and if you look at the xle, to me, we're possibly breaking out again. this is an area where if you look at it on the charts -- it's not just about a lynn areaty to the oil price, it is the guidance we're getting from

these companies. guy referenced chevron's ceo last week. and the dynamics around their balance sheet are things that are going to continue to support that defensiveness. staples, health care, and, which typically go along with energy here, i think they're getting interesting. i don't think it's time just yet. and i look at staples, which have drastically underperformed the s&p over the last six months. 16, 17, 18, back to that pricing power dan was talking about and what companies can pass through -- the best days of that, i think we've seen their best days on a two-year basis. >> discretionary stocks are horrible. disney and nike are down 30% from this year's highs, okay, you know, and they luke at a starbucks down 20%, we talked about these names. they are telling you something. to both of those things we talked about, a consumer that's tapped at a time where all of those inputs are really weighing on margins. >> yeah, i think the most volatile parts of the market, discretionary and semis or tech are the weakest. only 40%.

it's not a bull market reading. >> we beat up on target all the time. it's a decent indicator. a lot of their problems are self-inflicted. lowest we've seen in many years. bounced late. still, not a particularly good day. the outperformance of walmart is not good. massive double top in the smh. we brought that up. and the xle, i think we tested the levels we saw in the summer of 2014. 100ish dollars and i think we break through. energy still works in this environment. >> so, when is the time to go short? if we're going to hit the hardest part, if some of the leaders of the markets look weakest, when do you go short? i'm going to go with dan, because you have been known to short areas of the market. some have been pain trades. is now the time? >> well, i think we're losing some of the leadership, i mean, tesla -- you see the way tesla closed on friday, it was trading weak today. nvidia is down 16%, 17% from the post earnings highs.

and until they make new relative highs, you know, until they take out the ones, i think you short the nasdaq. so, i hadn't done that in awhile. i did it last week, the timing was okay this time. but i think those are going to be under pressure, because i think if you look at the s&p 500, the top ten names make up a little her than 25% or so, still hanging in there okay. >> they definitely are. and microsoft and apple, you could consider heroic in terms of how they overcame that elevator trip down, but it's about risk/reward, and to me, apple's 150 before it's 200. and that risk/reward is a dynamic doesn't mean apple can't do a great job in buying back shares and actually growing earnings just through some of their capital markets dynamics. but i don't think that the megacap tech stocks are going to hurt you here even in a defensive market. i get back to discretionary, i think a lot of names are going to continue. nike's had a big move lower. i think -- this week is very interesting. i'm contemplating tactically,

how good does it get in this name, if you think about, it's about 24 times on a forward. it's come in 20% off of that multiple, on a forward basis. i think it can go lower. >> yeah. what would you short here, chris? >> i'm with dan on this. i think what we've seen is the year to date tops for apple, microsoft, nvidia, they are oversold in the short-term. i recognize that seasonality improves the next couple weeks. i want to be a seller of those bounces. the 50-day moving average are now very important esistance, not just for the remainder of the year, but the first quarter of next year. >> regional dbanks, they don't trade well, the kre, not traded particularly well. i think they roll ver. especially, look, you look at the russell, the iwm, we topped out, seemingly 175, 180 has been a top. can't get through it. i think regional banks go lower from here. >> chris just mentioned seasonality getting better. when we got back from labor day,

the consensus by most strategists, investors, was that september, you know, normally pretty bad, was going to be bad, and then every once in awhile, you get a folks who pick their head up, said, i'm going the other way, i think it's going to rip your face off that's the pain trade higher, and look where we are. the s&p is down nearly 4%. so, it would take a miracle for it to close up, i think, on this month at this point, so, i think it's sometimes interesting when we focus on going with the flow here, i really do think that -- i think that the highs are in, i think you sell rallies. >> and to guy's point, if we said 11 months and two weeks ago, when the s&p bottomed on october 12th, that one year later, bank of america and citigroup one on the lows, we'd be surprised by that. we're nearly a year off the market bottom and the banks have not been involved. what does it mean? >> the market does not believe credit dynamics right now. and the banks are going to be -- we know their balance sheets are fine. we know that some of the

dynamic, the corporate balance sheets are largely fine. we are worried about commercial property. we are worried about where retail is, we have seen the cracks, but i agree. i mean, the fact that citi bank is through an svb low here, that's tough. >> for more, let's bring in new edge wealth head of fixed income ben ammons. >> hey, melissa. great to be back. >> are we going to look at this level of the ten-year yield and think this is pretty much the highs for the cycle? >> well, i think we still have some to go here. i was looking at technical levels here, if you take from the 2007 peak to the bottom in 2021 and back up, if you think of the retracement levels, we've really broken through all of them. so, technically speaking, you should make all the way back to the top now. there is some, i think some tactical opportunity here, i was looking at tlt and vglt, they are quite oversold now. they've drawn down almost like 13%, 14% from the peak in july, so, that may be a tactical

opportunity, but i think we have to recon that a yield of 4.25% was not really reflective of the economy, as it may be of a yield of 5.25%. echoing tim and chris's points, this is a supply-driven rally, but also liquidity. last week, the bank of england increasing, so, there's global story behind rates. so, i think we may have a tactical short bounce here in tlt, but it's really the upside of 5.25 on the ten-year we'll have to look at. >> not to play bond market too much, but the opportunity is there for yields to go slightly lower, but that would in theory be the point where you would bet that yields would go higher? >> yeah, i think, so, melissa, i think this 4.5 that was mentioned the other day was just not really holding here. there's too much pressure. just simply by supply.

very simplistic, today, with t-bill auctions, they don't actually never matter to markets, but they were not that well received, and i think that added to pressure in yields this morning. getting a lot more supply this week, so, i think it's more about 4.75 as a key resistance. but then, from there, we have to see how much it pulls back. it depends on data, it depends on inflation. if we don't pull back much, then it's really going to be a move towards 5.25. that does look like it. >> ben, it's tim. how much of this, if at all, could be related to government shutdown dynamics? i read your notes. they were fascinating. it's complex. maybe there's a short-term even funding dynamic for the treasury, because they want to get through a difficult period, they want to have liquidity. t-bill market, they are maybe trying to overfund. as rates go higher, it's more expensive for them to finance a deficit. and they're going to have to lock in some higher rates out the curve. you know, attack this any way

you want, because it's fascinating stuff. >> yeah, for sure tim. how did this all start, this selloff in rates? in july, the treasury met with the advisory committee, okay, you may go above that tlsh hold of 20%, but then you should consider to move more issues out of curve, because if you issue too much short-term, that deficit becomes very unstable. and so, i think this is the dynamic playing out today. short-term funding for the government to keep open and just finance it with t-bills may not be enough. you have to actually push out issuance out the yield curve and that's troubling the treasury market currently. you could expect to see more in the next quarter, the next refunding, to see increased issues for 10 and 30-year bonds. that's been priced in today after seeing right now. >> then you also throw in the possible dynamic that a government shutdown could lead buyers to buy sort of the safety

of treasuries or the u.s. dollar, which is bizarre kind of thinking, but in the past, we have seen that happen. >> yeah, it could be. but like i said, you know, most of these shutdowns have happened are short-term effects on the economy. almost like a weather effect, if you will, but it is an uncertainty moment, so, it leads to some level to flight to safety, if you will. and if you coincide with very short tactical indicators, and you get oversold on etfs like tlt, where a shutdown ove overhanging the markets and that gives you the short and technical rally that may be in the works. but the bigger picture is more what tim and i were just discussing. dealing with a deficit that is substantial, and you are issuing too much short-term paper. so, if you have to get away from that, you have to get out the yield curve. that will continue to be the pressure point for the treasury market. >> ben, good to see you.

>> thank you, melissa. >> guy? >> doing short-term paper because they're clearly concerned, scared, i would say, what would happen if they do longer duration so, they are trying -- hopefully the bond market settles down and allows them to do something longer term. it's not happening. it's working against them. and we talk about this, don't discount what's going on in japan. dollar/yen approaching 150, is a huge technical level. the bank of japan will jawbone, they won't be able to stop it. that's leading to this, as well. >> yeah, jgb yields -- they could swlinlingshot higher. the boj is either going to lose more credibility or they're going to have to give into the dynamics here. a lot of this, by the way, is relatively good for commodities. what we're seeing here is, almost have this ppi dynamic, which is actually good for person parts of the market, and it's actually not bad overall for the economy. i know it sounds crazy. not easy for the fed, but seeing copper prices hold, seeing iron

ore, dynamics around china. the resource names, you continue to own. >> last week, we heard from the fed, and there seems to be a massive disconnect between the voting members of the fed and the voting public of the united states. higher for longer, it was really to deal with what they think is an economy that's staying afloat. and if you look at the abc polls, as it relates to biden's approval or really disapproval rating, it's massive. on the economy, it's really bad. and when the voting public is, you know, again, it's a poll, who knows, but they are probably telling you how they feel about the economy right now, there seems to be a massive disconnect right now, and that's the thing that -- i would probably go with the consumer. i would probably go with the voters, how they're feeling. >> the very short-term on yields look for classic signs of a blowoff. volume, for example. we've been done 40, 50million shares a day, something in the blowoff category is 80, 90 million. you saw that in the 2020 lows. it sounds silly to say, but bond yields go up until they don't.

>> just -- i know we have to go, but equities trade great on some level. you consider the move we've had, i want to say this, i want to say it from the seasonal aspect and it's giving you a create opportunity on the setup here, because we're not going to five and a quarter on the ten-year. in the short run. we've had a massive move and equities have traded very resilient. coming up, apple's next move. getting sliced over the last few months and a u ofew of the trad think it could continue. and talkabout home improvements. williams sonoma surging. could this be the stock to really tie your portfolio together? we'll debate that when "fast ne rur.s

nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network.

welcome back to "fast money." it's been a rough couple of months for apple sin. the stock has pulled back more than 10% from its record. it's down more than 6%, just in september alone. on pace for its worst month of the year and a couple traders think this chart is getting worse been it gets better. tim? >> i brought it up last block, so, at the risk of being repetitive, i think the upside to apple is capped here. i look at the chart and i look at where that 150 level, that may be more aggressive. we traded to 176, going straight to 160, bounced off that 50,

held the 100, i should say, and i think that price action is impressive. i just think that when you consider some of the good news that's behind apple and that the stock really is meandering at best, the dynamics around where i think the equal weighed and some of the technical aspects of the etf world and how people are investing in the market, i actually think there's a lot more people focusing away from the megacap stocks. so, that is really my argument. the valuation is something that i think is easy to have a difficult time with, at this point, and it gets back to not getting away from you. >> tim, when you look at the chart, that 50-day moving average is resistance now and it will be for the remainder of the year. 182, 183 is the level. if you cut the rally in hatch, it gets you the 160. a 50% retracement makes some sense there. but remember, when you look at this group of stocks, apple, goodell, meta, amazon, et cetera, there's 350 analysts that cover half of them, there's

only four cells on that whole complex of stocks. isn't a lot of good news already in these things? >> in the context of a market that is expected to go lower, hasn't this stock really held up -- >> really well. well, here's the prior all-time high, right around where we are now, so, we're holding that level. the bad news is, there's been no meaningful bounce since that china announcement a couple weeks ago. if you said it a week or so ago, shadow ban in china, and the stock goes from 176 to 160 in a heart beat. >> defensive, would you rather be -- oh -- >> you did it. >> apple or health care? >> funny, i was going to would you rather. >> really? >> i was going to say, to megacap, so, google is expected to grow earnings next year 20%, and sales growth of 12 okay? and apple the trading 27 times its next year and expected to grow, earnings maybe 7%, 8%, on 6% revenue growth. i'd much rather google, right here, right now. >> making your own rules here.

not what i asked you. >> i don't know what you asked me is the other thing. >> you're not listening. >> i already made up my mind. google is more attractive. at 160, i've said it here, too, and tim admits, 150 would be a big overshoot. it would take a pretty big move to the downside or something very fundamental to the company. maybe guy didn't line up and get his usb-c iphone 15 pro max, maybe that didn't happen this past weekend. that's what they're pushing out here, people. a tittanium -- >> i don't think we can choose whatever narrative we want. at one point, the stocks were offensive, now we want to pretend they're defensive, i would pick health care over apple here. >> oh, that was it? >> thank you for playing. >> sorry. >> it's like i didn't even come back from -- >> you're back. welcome back. >> great. >> great seeing "pitch perfect," they're singing "i am titanium" early in the movie. >> tim, would you rather, google

or apple? >> i would rather not listen about "pitch perfect." >> don't pretend you don't like that movie. >> who is that? costner? >> kevin costner is not in "pitch perfect." >> sounds like a baseball movie. >> it's not about baseball. >> i have no time for that movie. i have more time for google over apple here. >> health care or apple here? >> health care. health care. and it's been a tough place to be. and i realize they have headwind s. >> all right. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. out of the frying pan and into your portfolio. william sonoma surging as it gets a vote of confidence from one big investor. so, make yourself at home. the traders are digging into this one, next. plus, the weight loss drug boom isn't just boosting farm ma stocks. the manufacturing name that could see some outsized gains thanks to the population slimming down. that's ahead. you're watching "fast money,"

live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪

a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. welcome back to "fast money." a solid home improvement project for shares of william sonoma today. green equity investors revealed a 5% stake in the company. the position is passive, but shares of the home goods retailer did hit their highest level in just over a year. william sonoma. what are they known for, guy? >> let's not do that. >> what are they known for, tim? >> maybe poe purry? cented candles? >> dutch ovens. >> dutch ovens. anyway. what do you make of this?

>> we did it. >> if carter was here, chris is here, he would say, we've actually entered a bearish to bullish reversal on the chart, going back from its all-time high in november of 2021, it's been a series of lower highs and lower lows. that's changed over the last month and a half, two months. valuation, reasonable. trades effectively one times revenue. it's a great company with a great story. the question is, can it hold up in this environment on the high end? i think it can, i think the stock can go higher. >> it's certainly a good schart. but we have to be mindful. it's the best chart in a bad group. i would rather own the worst chart in a good group. i don't think it can be a full position here, given the group dynamics. >> the news is obviously very bullish for williams sonoma, because leonard green is known to be very smart in the consumer retail space, it's almost a pat on the back, showing the 5% position. it's decent endorsement, also just because it says a lot about

the strength of the e-commerce business they've built, it says a lot about the strength of the management team, so, i like it, i like the multiple, i think it's probably not a place where pe's making a big move here. restoration hardware is another name i want to throw in there, because this is a name that, i've been trading and so far, pretty well. and i hate to sound like real happy here, what i'm saying is, that stock's gone from 390 to 260. and this is about where i put it on the first place. i think it is worth looking at. and i do think that the news we got out of this earnings cycle was not terribly good. chris is right, though. these names still have some headwinds. not sure you have to do it right now. >> why are you latching? >> i can smirk. i was thinking about dutch ovens. >> thinking about how well he's tradie ing rh. >> i get it. >> by the way, anna kendrick, she watches "fast money." >> sure she does. >> she's mad at you because you didn't know what the movie was. you might want to apologize. >> sorry, anna. great that you watch the show,

though. thank you. on that note. coming up, one manufacturing name could be beefing up as others are slimming down. the ceo will join us next to lay out how the weight loss drug boom is boosting his business. plus, a massive a.i. bet. amazon plugging as much as $4 billion into one tech startup. we'll chat about those details and more when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" poasdct. we're back right after this. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

e*trade from morgan stanley.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks snapping a four-day losing streak to kick off the last week of september and q-3. the dow up 43 points. the s&p and nasdaq climbing 0.4%. costco offering members access to medical care fthrough sesame. members can receive primary care visits for as low as $29. companies like amazon, cvs, and walgreens look to deepen their footprint in health care. the weight loss drug boom suspect just a benefit to big pharma. might be tipping the scale in

favor of jacob solutions. its life sciences business has long times to eli lilly and novo nordisk. joining us here is ceo bob pregatta. thank you for seeing us here on-set. >> thank you for having me. >> it's 60% -- >> it is. >> life sciences. >> it is. we entered the life sciences world almost 75 years ago. our founder, dr. jacobs, actually right here in brooklyn, was a merck employee and left merck to start his own engineering firm and it -- and merck hatz bs been a long-stand client since then. >> so, we mentioned you're long-standing ties to novo and eli lilly, the manufacturers of glp-1s. so, how are you thinking about

what that adds to your pipeline, which had been at about 27 billion at the end of fiscal full year 2022? >> correct. correct. if you think about the life sciences business, in the last five years, driven by two other verticals, oncology drugs, as well as alzheimer's, all the advancements that are happening there, we've doubled the size of our business in the last five years. along with chip manufacturing, as well. so, that business has been on a growth train driven by technology advancements and those technologiey eadvancement have entered the world of diabetes, with some beneficial other effects with regards to weight loss. and so, we're seeing that in real time. >> you mentioned cancer drugs as being a driver, but what percentage of the growth, do you think, can be attributable to obesity and the diabetes drugs, this category of drug? >> moving forward, i think it's going to be likely a majority. >> majority?

>> we'll continue to see -- today -- we're a $15 billion company in sales, 60,000 employees across 40 countries. our advance manufacturing work is about $2.5 billion of that. we could potentially double that in the next three to your years, as a result of these megatrends that are happening within -- within novel therapies. >> so, how do you forecast out? you said, you think it's going to be the majority of growth, but how do you think about the opportunity you have in front of you, when you hear about the miracle possibilities that these drugs could lead to, as being a treatment for addictions, to reduce cardiac events, to eliminate sleep aapnea, the lis goes on and on. how do you think about that growth translating into your business? >> clearly, we get excited. we get excited, i think we would be -- it wouldn't be proper for us to be in the business if we didn't get excited. but the other component is, the complexity in the facilities

really is the unique and dynamic part of our business, so, that science-based technical consulting that we have within the life sciences base is driving innovation and delivery, as well. because i think -- just saw an interview that david ricks gave on "squawk box," capacity was probably mentioned several times. in that interview. when you hear capacity and speed, that's where jacobs come into play. >> how quickly can you help get a manufacturing facility up and running? i was in denmark last week, saw the ground at novo nordisk being broken at their newest facility. i'm just curious, how quickly would that be up and running? >> these normally take, if i were to go back five years, then talk about covid, what happened there and then now, five years ago, that would have been five years in order to go from groundbreaking all the way through a validated facility. covid taught us a lot of

lessons, and it's go as fast as you can, because the entire world is dependent on this facility producing vaccines. and so, today, we're probably in that 2 1/2 to 3 year period. >> wow. after that period and that plant is up and running, is your relationship with that particular plant over or is there recurring business associated with that plant? >> there is recurring business that goes on with that plant. constant ly making upgrades, manufacturing technologies. so, there will be ongoing work on that facility. >> big backlog, almost $30 billion, up 2.5% yearover year. big margins. how important are government contracts? i saw an epa contract in early august, i think. >> government contracts are very important. and what we're seeing with these legislative actions that have happened, and kind of transcending beyond life sciences, with the chips act, both here and in europe, and the i

i.r.a., those acts are driving our business, and will be for the foreseeable feature. >> near shoring, basically. i mean, when a chip plant says, we're going to move here, or, we're going to open a new chip plant here, because of the chips act, that's where you benefit. >> we do. >> you have 60% of the semiconductor business, as well. >> we do. we do benefit. and the near shoring component, or the reshoring component is a big piece. the other big piece around semiconductor is how companies, like a large american semiconductor manufacture is redefining their own business model. so, going from integrated advice manufacturing to being both a foundry, as well as an idm, is changing, you know, their business, which is adding capacity, both in the state, as well as in europe. europe also passed a chips act that's driving our business. >> we've seen over the last several years how tight labor has been and what that's done with wages. is that easing, are you seeing any improvement there?

>> i'd say in the field, that is a topic. and i think that more innovation and delivery, we addressed those productivity inhansment items in order to address that issue. within jacobs, we have a unique opportunity, because we're a global company, and so, when we -- when a large chip manufacturer comes to us, or a life sciences or bio tech company comes to us and says, we need five of these, as fast as you can go in five years, what we do is, we use our global delivery model. and so, if you look at what we have in india, what we have in philippines, this isn't offshore engineering, this is the highestal innocent the world coming together in integrated teams and delivering locally for these really market-driven needs. >> how recession-proof is the two big areas of your business, the life sciences, as well as chips? >> i don't know if anything is completely immune to a recession, but pretty resilient because of the drivers.

these drivers are human lives, you know, the world of everything that needs a chip, and that's not stopping. >> bob, thank you so much for coming in. we hope you'll come back to the show soon. >> thank you. >> bob pregada. jacobs? >> in august, announced their stake by 700%, from a couple hundred thousands shares to 1.4 million shares. i won't bring the guest back, as you say, but there is always m&a around this name. the stock trades well. >> the sum of the parts dynamic of how i think the community is valuing the stock, based upon the different pieces of the business and the spin-off opportunities, is really what's fascinating and part of what's driving upgrades right now. >> how does the chart look, chris? >> it's a good chart. it's in a good chart. it's in an uptrend when we are starved to find stocks that are in uptrends. >> we spent a lot of time over the course of 2023 talking about them, and you think about that backlog that guy talked about,

their market share in both of those industries, i think they kind of are recession-proof, you know? semiconductors like to spend themselves out of a recession, and then if you think about how the life sciences business, this is a megatrend that's going to go on for at least a decade, so, to me, it's an interesting setup. coming up, alexa might be getting some company on amazon's a.i. shelf. $4 billion investment. details ahead. and cnbc is celebrating hispanic heritage. here is the founder of gold belly. >> my parents raised me to believe that i can do anything. i came to the u.s., i went to college here, i pursued a lot of different opportunities before launching my company, gold belly. successfully. and i just know that this is an american dream for my parents. and it makes me really proud to have been able to deliver that.

you know when you have those moments? that time to reflect. to be like wow... what did i do to get here? (city ambient noise) right. work. you worked hard and it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank brings security and a guarantee. that you'll earn a yield in the top 5% of competitive accounts. going, got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you

♪

that first time you take a step back and see everything you've accomplished. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy with godaddy. i am doing this. with a partner that puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com/sell ♪ welcome back to "fast money." amazon pressing its bets on a.i. the giant investing up to $4 billion in a.i. startup entlopic, hoping to use the company's technology and products and help develop custom

chips for amazon. dan -- >> good news. i mean -- >> yeah. >> it's interesting. the stock sold off 10% in a straight line and then you go, over the weekend, you put out a press release like this -- >> a.i. >> listen, this is a company where it was founded by ex-openai folks. they are working on this stuff. there's going to be lots of competition in these spaces. and when you think about aws and this platform that exists to kind of service a whole host of different things, this makes sense. i do think it's interesting that, you know, ultimately microsoft got up to a $10 billion mod with openai. it might power a whole host of new services for aws, which, you know, went through this massive deceleration of growth and they have a lot of competition, so, to me, it all makes sense. >> the agreement sort of reminded me of the microsoft/openai. a small amount up front, the use of the cloud services, so they get business in return in a way. >> yeah, makes sense.

and you get a pop in the stock. however, and chris can speak to this, last august, the stock traded up to 145 and failed and sold off dramatically. look at where we just traded up to and seemingly failed again. trading 132 now. what was 145 to dan's point, a couple weeks ago. i think you have a short-term double top here. i wouldn't touch it. >> testimony ri think the respo stock today shows you the market today. there's a gap around 136, 137, from the breakdown a couple of sessions ago. i'm a seller up there, much like the big names. i think this one has topped for the year. >> i think it's a no brainer for amazon. you think about the public cloud is doing, this is chump change. coming up, it's a bird, it's a plane -- no, it's chris verron. we have to put him to work. find out what he's watching next. stk icaround. more "fast money" right after this.

how's the chicken? the prawns are delicious. oh, i have a shellfish allergy. one prawn. very good. did i say chicken wrong? tired of people not listening to what you want? it's truffle season! ah that's okay... never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art. enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you. that's what u.s. bank is for. huge relief. yeah... ♪

welcome back to "fast money." receive semis may have cooled off, but the group is up 40% this year. chris is going to go off the charts. what are you looking at? >> this has been a very vaunted group all year, but out's really

underwhelming under the surface. we'll start with the biggest, most important name, nvidia. i think it's topped for the year. there's a lot of resistance in this 450 neighborhood, roughly where it broeke down from the 200-day moving average is 100 points away, and there's a massive gap on the chart. as we've seen time and time again this year there are no sacred stocks in this business. the untouchables have all been touched. i don't think nvidia will be any different. if you go stock by stock in the group, what becomes clearer and clearer is how weak the semis are under the surface. txn would be an example. broke down this week. making 52-week lows there. names like asml, taiwan semi, these are on 52-week low list, not the 52-week high list. speaks to the broader point of the internal detier owe ration we've seen in semis. there's 50 stocks in this index.

the advance decline line'slows. i recognize the index is up, but the fact that you have the ad line speaks to just how weak this group is under the surface. they are short-term oversold. i can see them bouncing in the near term. fade those rallies. i think they've topped for the year. >> would you short nvidia again, dan? >> yeah, let's see if it gets a bounce. the story is going to be the deceleration of that growth, so, if there's any hiccups in the adoption of the products, anything geopolitical, whatever, it's great, it's been a fantastic story. i was very, very wrong. a moth to flame in this sort of thing. but the story dsh-- it's about good as it gets. >> the move that nvidia made in may, what it did for the stocks, is the question. it hasn't gone past there. that was the relative high, in fact, it took out the high of deck '21, and it's been, you

know, making lower highs ever since. so, i agree with the analysis. leadership was critical for the markets from the cpi low last year. it hasn't fallen apart as people -- it would have been so easy to say, boy, that nvidia move was so overdone, and actually, i think it's been -- i think it's been resilient. but i'm not going to fight that view. i agree. i think we've had trouble making relative highs, and therefore, the qs are having trouble making relative highs, as well. and i think until they do, i think markets look topee. >> i think the great paradox here is, you talk about the 9% cpi print of last july, it was the 3% cpi print of this july where leadership really changed away from the qs, away from discretionary, back to emergency. >> market's not responding. >> markets love paradox and it's been exhibit a. >> taiwan semi has been romming over since june. amd blew 100, and that smh chart, that is a massive double

top. seemingly will be intact for quite some time. >> this ties perfectly back to the top of the show. >> put a bow on it. >> we just -- you just did. i mean, you look often at s semiconductors -- >> it's -- you turn on your screens in the morning, there's the handful of canaries you look at. that has to be one of them. >> all right. up next, final trades.

in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. this is american infrastructure. megawatts of power, rails and open road, and essential services of every kind. all running on countless invisible networks, making it a prime target for cyberattacks. but the same ai-powered security that protects all of google also defends the systems running america's infrastructure.

for these services. for the 336 million of us living here. ♪

time for the final trade. tim? >> if you think about defensive sectors, i do think altria belongs in its own sector. you've we are written a lot of the bad news in that stock. mo. >> chris? >> there's some life in health care. long amgen. >> good to have you, chris. dan? >> i'm going to play your game. >> which one? >> xlv. >> oh. finally. >> only took 58 minutes of the show. >> sorry about that. >> guy? >> might be life in health care, but there's no life at shaea. that place has been 'emempty si june. >> it's coming to an end.

>> got football tonight, mel. and you were talking about the bengals, boomer, congratulations, ring of honor. >> he watches the show. >> he does. >> rig. >> thank you for watching "fast money." see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. . my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> my job is not just to entertain, but to teach. tough days do not last forever. but when they come along, you