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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  September 26, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." we begin with bracing for losses wall street with the first winning day in five. futures are lower. the d.c. shutdown showdown it is turning heads at moody's what it is telling investors ahead of the october 1st deadline. sticking with washington, the department of justice set to call a very important witness in the case against google's market dominance. what apple is set to say on the stand. and evergrande shares are
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sinking again. and we continue the week long special with the best ideas heading into q4. it is tuesday, september 26th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. we kickoff the day with the check of the futures the first winning session in five a clear change of direction here in the futures the dow set to open 125 points lower. the s&p and nasdaq both down about .50% in the pre-market we are checking the bond market with the 10-year treasury at the highest level since october of 2007 look right now at 4.52 also the 2-year treasury is 5.12 you see it is elevated
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we are looking at the energy markets. oil is giving back a bit look right now at wti crude below $90 a barrel down 1% this morning brent crude at $92.28. similar for the natural gas market down 1% this as the dollar adds to impressive gains up 2.7% this quarter alone and on pace for the best quarter since q3 of 2022 you can see the dollar up fractionally right now up 3% actually in the quarter so far. something to continue to watch this puts pressure not only on tech stocks, but other areas in the market as the dollar gets stronger let's see how europe is shaping up as its trading day is getting under way with joumanna bercetche with more on the early action joumanna good morning, frank. negative sentiment is prevailing for asian markets overnight.
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the hand over is not pretty. all majors trading under water shanghai down .40% a lot of focus on the real estate sector. evergrande shares down 8% today. they fell 22% yesterday in trading after concerns of a missed payment on one of the bonds. that continues to weigh on the hang seng as well down 1.5%. nikkei down 1.1% we see pullback in the machinery stocks and chipmakers. taking the cue from the u.s. with the tech stocks there in europe, the picture is mixed. a couple trading in the green. spanish is up .10% ftse 100 is up .10% as well. the story is one of selling. dax in germany, despite moderation in sentiment, the numbers we got yesterday showing that some sentiment is beginning to stabilize the cac 40 is down .50%.
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we have been watching the luxury seein sector we have downgrades from jeffries and bank of america with the downgrade in stocks. a negative handove over, frank. >> joumanna, thank you very much joumanna bercetche live in the london newsroom. we stick with the overseas action and the developing story with shares of evergrande slide for a second straight day. they are down more than 8%. on monday, the company missed a bond repayment we have emily tan from hong kong with more on the story emily, what's the latest >> reporter: thanks, frank the bad news keeps coming forf for evergrande the media report saying that the company's ex-cfo and ceo de
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detained by authorities. not much more detail than that all of this news weighing on the stock over the company missing the bond onshore payment shares tried down 8% this is all to do with the flagship unit in real estate saying it failed to pay the payment and interest on the $4 billion bond this result the in evergrand shares tanking as much as 26% on monday the missed payment is the latest setback since defaulting back in 2021 it has been seeking proposals to restructure debt which includes bonds and collateral and re-purchased obligations this is a bigger player in the
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property space it has four times the number of projects than evergrande which is country garden. they are on the brink of default. the mainland property sector is fragile and we are watching it day by day reporting live from hong kong, back to you. >> emily tan, thank you very much turning attention now to u.s. and d.c. and week three of the case against alphabet. the department of justice building the case which is drawing in another tech giant which is apple and the top lieutenant for ceo of tim cook steve novach joins me with more. >> you might ask why is eddie cue at the google trial? he is in charge of services at apple. that includes the app store and
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apple tv and the billions that apple collects from google to keep google as the default search engine. they allege google uses the deep pockets to pay apple and samsung and more to be the default search engine squeezing out come p p -- competitors. eddy cue says users have the option to switch to the default to another search engine he also says apple doesn't make the search engine because google's already there and it is the best some perspective on why cue would defend the arrangement in federal court. the googliogle payments going te settlement google will pay apple $19 billion this fiscal year or a
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quarter of all services revenue. eddy cue's testimony may be closed, but we will find out more later this morning, frank >> testimony expected today. steve, this is not the first time we have seen an apple executive in the hot seat for this trial >> reporter: last week, the apple executive in charge of artificial intelligence testified as well. most of the testimony was under seal he did give some testimony about a change already to io 17 which is the software that came out last week. a new setting that let's you change the defaults in private mode and public mode a lot of people pointing to that because the position has been google is violating privacy and it is interesting despite the arrangement they have with google and they are giving people the chance to change to a private search engine when in
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private mode. >> interesting trial going on. shares of apple down .50%. steve live at the nasdaq thank you. time to get a check on the other top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> frank, good morning with less than a week to go, moody's is speaking out about a possible u.s. government shutdown the creditays if it comes to pass, it could lead to a negative outlook and potentially a downgrade as well as provided of further evidence of political thepolarization is effecting the policies this comes after fitch downgrade the u.s. in august and s&p downgraded in 2011. ford is pausing the work in
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michigan on the ev battery plant. they have not said if it is due to the uaw strike. the company says we are going to limit spending on construction until we're confident about our ability to competitively run the plant. this coming as president biden plans to meet with striking workers in detroit today ford was planning to operate the plant in partnership with chinese based catl the largest ev battery maker shares falling in overseas trading. and neel kashkaris into they moves. kashkari told the event attendees if the economy is much stronger than we realized on the margin, that would tell the me rates would have to go higher and then be held higher for longer to cool things off. wall street is currently pricing in at least one more rate hike
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before year's end. frank. >> same indication from the fed. silvana, see you later on. we have more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. first, my next dpguest says nott underestimate the great american consumer john stoltz is next. later in the show, jeff bezos reunites with an old friend at blue origin. we have a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us ♪ maybe i should have called you first but i was ♪ ♪ trying to get to you ♪ ♪ i was dreaming while i drove the long straight road ahead ♪
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♪ i drove all night to get to you ♪ the distance is nothing when home means everything.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the september slide set to resume today looking at futures with the dow looking like it will open 130 points lower could better days be ahead with the changing of the calendar according to bespoke, the last three teimes the s&p lost in august and september, it bounced in october in 2022 and 2015 and then 11% in 2011 for more on this, let's bring in john stoltzfus john, good morning great to you have here >> good morning, frank great to be on the "wex" with
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you. >> that is interesting with the stats. the 2022 stat there. the other three bounces came under lower rates. a very different rate environment. are you expecting history to repeat itself this year? >> i may not expect history to repeat itself. what is mark twain attributed to saying history may not repeat itself, but it rhymes. if you look back historically back to the period that was the 1970s to 1979 or 1980, interest rates were much higher and inflation was higher you have a period where paul volcker was battling double digit rates of inflation that were stickier -- much sticker than today because his pre predecessor arthur burns failed to act right now, we are really at a
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regime in which we see the f federal reserve reflective of ben bernancke style as to the mandate to provide a good economy and a good labor market. basically what you have is a better situation we think the market will respond to that. avoid the noise. listen to the signal >> okay. i like that one. avoid the noise and listen to the signal you are favoring cyclicals give us a sense when you are talking cyclicals, that is a broad term what sectors are you looking at and what is your focus in cyclicals? why is that the play >> we think the cyclicals have the goal with what we are seeing here in the entrenchment we look at the near-term trends
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which are positive as well as long-term trends to us, what we opened fup with industrials. we think you need to own energy in here and ultimately financials once they settle down. >> you are saying some energy. brian sullivan interviewed the ceo of chevron he is finaorecasting $100 a barl for oil. are you getting more bullish on energy >> in fact, we have. right now, our weighting in energy is up .50% over what the weighting is currently in the s&p 500. the way things are right now, we expect we will ratchet that up as long as we see opportunity for prices to rise
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related to predictions of $100 levels in the '90s how long it would stick is another question the reality is there is plenty of oil around the world. oil has been taken off the market essentially by reductions of production by opec plus did n to that. before we go, government shutdown how seriously are you taking it? >> the government shutdown is something that is always worrisome. polititicians would revert to that the one thing when push comes to shove, we are entering a period where we are approaching a presidential election. we think for either side for elements of the parties which like to see drama and a shutdown to gain press coverage will back
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off. we think it is political career suicide. we are not political analysts, but voters have gone through a lot. the pandemic and supply chain problems and volatility in the market and interest rates and now another problem and one that can be avoided by politicians doing the old fashion way of negotiating. >> john stoltzfus from oppenheimer, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," we are breaking down the consumer war of worry and if costco has what it takes to surprise the most upbeat investors. we are back with more "worldwide exan" tethchgeafr is
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." wall street's hope for a soft landing is fading as the wall of worry is getting crowded rising energy prices surging in the last month with the return of student loan payments next month which will hit the wallets of 44 million americans and morgan stanley says people are not spending on discretion ary items. and then costco is reporting after the bell today let's talk more about this with corey tarlow
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>> thank you for having me. >> what is the price rating and what do you expect from the report >> the rating on costco is a buy with the target of $640. it represents 20% upside as we think of the current report, we know what the sales will be with costco reporting every month. we see $80 billion so far this year that makes the physfiscal year making costco the third largest retailer in the world. >> you mentioned that costco reports every month. they report comparable store sales. one of the most transparent of all retailers. i want to read this data in june, sales were down 1.4%. in july, up 2.5% then in august , it was up almot 3.5% what does that tell you about
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the sales for costco >> i think it means that the consumer is on a shaky ground. the consumer has been a little bit more resilient than we expected so far this year. with the resumption of student loans and the survey of 600 consumers with student loans, the average payment is $460 a month. that could take a chunk out of people's wallets i think the consumer environment as you look ahead makes you hesitant of the headwinds households in the u.s. are facing sd facing >> comp store sales ramp up as the student loan payments happen >> that's correct. >> according to the stat, 444,000, the number of holiday
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hiring which has been announced so far this year the firm that tracks seasonal hires this year to sink to the lowest level since 2008. i'm throwing a lot of numbers at you. is this a read into inventory levels to see holiday hires fall to the lowest levels since 2008? >> i think it is a reflection of the fact that the labor market which we have seen more elasticity we saw the unemployment rate tick up a bit in the last reported month what with e are likely to see a of the holiday season is the consumer being more stretched considering student loans. many retailers are calibrating to this when they look to hire for the holeiday season. some retailers announced the
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hiring plans and it has been slow i look that to be reflective of the holiday season ahead. >> we see slow hiring and we expect inventory? you expect fewer customers sdplccustomers. >> inventories have been coming down considering last year >> what about discounting? >> it has been elevated. that is in many discretionary categories across food and markets as well. i think it illustrates the fact that the consumer has become more stretched and retailers need to promote to drive sales >> food discounting. that is a reversal from a year ago. c c c corey, thank you very much. with less than a week to go, we get the best ideas heading into the fourth quarter.
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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area there is more ahead here on "worldwide exchange. here's what's on deck. stocks poised to resume after inking out gains this week the dow down more than 100 points. the special week long series with the best ideas to make money in the fourth quarter in 2023 rolls on. the fintech name that our next guest says could be the best opportunity. and the latest credit rating at risk. a new warning from one agency. that is coming up on tuesday, september 26th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. we pick up the half hour with the check of the stock futures
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futures are solidly in the red right now. the dow looking like it will happen up 30 points lower. s&p and nasdaq down .50% we are seeing the yields on the 10-year treasury hitting the highest level since 2007 right now at 4.51. the 2-year treasury is something we are watching as well. we are seeing oil and the u.s. benchmark below $90 a barrel down 1% right now. brent crude with the similar story. natural gas is down 1.25%. we are looking at the dollar the dollar specifically as to some impressive growth over the last two months. let's look at the dollar which is up 5% over the last two months wrong chart here the toll dollar putting pressurn businesses specifically tech overseas we will talk more about the
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dollar in general this week. we are now going to return to the set up for investors who missed out on the rally, but want to lock in gains before the year we are speaking with the favorite stock pickers giving us the best ideas heading into q4 we run them to the gauntlet. we had katrina dudley yesterday and today i'm joined by malcolm ethridge great to you have here today >> good to see you. >> give us your pick and why >> sofi is my pick for the last quarter of the year. heading into what will be their best quarter ever when it comes to earnings. i actually expect coming off the success of instacart
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>> all right you mentioned this might be the best quarter ever. a lot of speculation about that. mostly fueled by student loans i want to talk about this. according to bank of america, sofi holds 60% of private student loan refinancing a lot of people are trying to refinance their deals. this is a temporary boost. are you worried after the refinancing that revenue and customer engagement with sofi might decline after the period of student loans >> i will disagree with you a little bit about them just being student loans. what we saw from 2020 when student loans were paused, their b bread and butter dried up on them they turned to be a traditional bank they bought a mortgage servicer
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to offer mortgages they started offering traditional banking products because they are a digital bank, they offer better interest on the savings accounts than most brick and mortar aside from student loans, they very done a good job of beefing up the offering. we saw for the first time them help take a company public i think their product makes it diversified enough that after student loan refinancing and whatever pent up demand has worked through the system and they still have the ability to show positive growth that they are a legitimate player. >> malcolm, you are supposed t defend your pick i want to cite something
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rising yields over the last year could create an issue of write offs for sofi. we saw short-term bonds rise dramatically that influences the loans that sofi has. >> i think that is a fair criticism. the high interest rate environment we are in is definitely a headwind for sofi it is not well capitalized as jpmorgan chase or morgan st stanley. because they are growing at the rate it has, it is significant the last few quarters. because the deposits are growing, they have the ability to back up their loans and not rely on selling off those loans to secondary servicers yes, the higher interest rates mean they have to be more careful. it doesn't necessarily mean that
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headwind will stop them from telling a bigger growth story going forward. >> you mentioned they have become a digital bank. we heard about bank consolidation and people moving money to the bigger banks. is there any risk of customers moving away from sofi with the concern of digital banks >> not quite i think sofi has a different target customer. they focused on the millennial and gen zbefore they have really hit earnings potential we saw that with instacart i think sofi's target customer has a tremendous amount of loyalty with the brand we have seen that because almost every member they have has more than one banking product with them separately, because you are willing to refinance my student loans and relieve the pressure
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from the higher payment that i once had, i'm willing to turn when it comes time to buy a house or car and so forth. i think that loyalty will matter more than anything else going forward. >> malcolm ethridge, thank you sofi shares up 60% year to date. we have victoria greene tomorrow with her stock pick. we will give you the name tomorrow on "worldwide exchange." thank you, malcolm. time for the check of the top corporate stories with silvana henao. >> frank, i'm back fresh off the labor deal with ford in canada, the uaw is turning attention to general motors it named the biggest three as the second biggest target in the talks which are set today. they are looking at three gm facilities to reach a similar
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deal as the one they reached with ford. cfcc is looking to reinstate net neutrality the chairman will announce the initiative today the rules barring brandband providers from interferes with traffic were overturned by the fcc. and blue origin is shaking up leadership. cnbc is learning ceo bob smith is retiring in december and replaced by david lynn while serving as the chief, he served over alexa and ring and more experimental divisions like autonomous vehicles and internet satellite businesses frank. >> silvana henao, thank you.
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turning attention back to the potential u.s. government shutdown moody's is speaking out saying if it does happen, it could lead to a negative outlook and downgrade of the rating for the u.s. moody's is the last credit rating to have that aaa rating for the u.s. it says polarization in d.c. is weakening the credit position. we have emily wilkins in washington, d.c. with latest what are you hearing >> reporter: good morning, frank. the shutdown is less than five days away. lawmakers are returning to d.c. today and they the wiwill find f they make progress or suffer defeat from last week. this afternoon, the house will have the first vote. they will vote on whether to move forward with the four long-term bills to fund different parts of the government none of the bills would prevent a government shutdown, but
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needed to appease the republicans who have put their foot down and saying they don't want to continue current government funding that group blocked republicans from moving forward with procedural votes last week this rarely ever happens in the house and it speaks to the deep divisions in the party that moody's was noting speaker mccarthy hoping he can be able to avoid a shutdown by bringing a short-term bill to the floor this week, but and this is a big but, if it did pass, the measure he is considering lacks democratic support which means there is no way it gets through the senate and no way it gets to biden's desk to prevent a shutdown president biden said yesterday it was republicans who were gridlocked over spending bills and republicans who should pay the price in the 2024 elections. >> funding the government is one of the most basic fundamental responsibilities in congress and
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if republicans don't start doing their job, we should stop electing them. >> reporter: democrats are working with a stop-gap measure to potentially end the shutdown, but it is unlikely that will be done in time frank, we have not seen the text for the proposed stop-gap yet and it takes time to pass. at this point, it looks like come saturday night, we will go into the shutdown. >> i want to clarify a shutdown is not the same as the treasury running out of money and not paying the bills what are the odds the shutdown moves the needles for moody's or fitch or the u.s. credit rating in. >> reporter: frank, everyone in d.c. agrees a shutdown is not a good thing it is better than defaulting on the debt workers lose out on pay and hits
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to the economy we have never defaulted on our debt that raises questions. it is more tied into defaults on the debt with the credit rating. when you saw fitch lower from aaa to aa plus wasn't just the fiscal cliff debate, but it means washington is not functioning. that problem happened over a long period of time which includes a number of debt limit standoffs and a number of government shutdowns >> emily wilkins, thank you. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," we have a number of luxury brands getting hit hard in overseas trading on less than optimistic outlooks. first, as we head to break, we have top trending stories paid to stream the online site casinos offering $2,500 for one fan to watch
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netflix popular shows to figure out which is the most binge-able if they watched the show and how much they liked the finale. costco earnings are coming up the $1 hot dog is history. monopoly launching a costco set with the famous teddy bear and the hot dog and soda combo all of the game pieces and food court tables instead of houses and hotels i like to be the thimble. pickleball is growing in popularity, but the noise is not. it is leading to lawsuits. pickleball will have a category for equipment as they look to combat the torture technique more "worldwide exchange" coming up after this. we can make this work.
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the weight is gone and it's never coming back. with golo, i've not only kept off the weight but i'm happier, i'm healthier, and i have a new lease on life. golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight and keep it off. who loses 138 pounds in nine months? i did! golo's a lifestyle change and you make the change and it stays off. (soft music) welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a market flash with alibaba listing on the hong kong exchange as part of the restructuring plan alibaba announced in may it said it would spin off six companies. alibaba shares are down .30% in u.s. trading and down .50% in hong kong. time for the morning call sheet. we begin with jpmorgan chase upgrading draft kings rating and
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target moving to overweight and 37 per share it thinks draft kings has a strong product and brand to compete against the online gambling space shares up over 3.5% this morning. morgan stanley raising rating on barclays now to overweight it expects shares to move higher shares up over 2%. hsbc with pinterest of the buy rating it believes it has the right management team in place and different capital strategy to deliver on its foray into social commerce shares up fractionally right now. it is time for the global briefing we start with the story we told you about earlier. shares of evergrande slipping for the second straight day after missing on the key bond
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payment yesterday. the ceo and cfo have been detained by chinese authorities. and luxury brands downgraded by bank of america and citi and deutsche bank. bank of america said the boom for luxury retailers has peaked with the easing of covid restrictions. we are watching shares of asm raising guidance for 2025. shares right now are down 4% the equipmentmaker expects revenue of $3.8 billion that year jeffries is describing that as un underwhelming. coming up on "worldwide exchange," one word every investor needs to know today and the next guest says we are bearish around the tech giant with bigger market effects. as we head to break, cnbc is celebrating hispanic heritage.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." all right. welcome back it is time for the wex wrap-up we begin with jamie dimon warning the fed may have more
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room to go on the rate hikes dimon said the worst case would be 7% with stagflation the rates going from 5% to 7% would be more painful for the economy than it was 3% to 5%. eddy cue is set to testify against alpha bet today. he said the browser does not favor dpgoogle's search as muchs the doj claims. and ford is pausing construction on the $3.5 billion b battery factory in michigan. shares of thor industries under pressure after the company missed on sales expectations on the most recent quarter and issued a downbeat forecast shares of thor down 2.5%
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s.e.c. collecting thousands of messages from the investment company on whatsapp. the firms include apollo global and kkr and tpg and blackstone. and breaking moments ago, tesla in china is part of the by the block into the electric vehicles industry is receiving unfair subsidy as there was evidence to suggest a probe which could overwhelm the ev car industry. centering around stocks appearing to subside goldman sachs finds leverage at fastest pace since 2020. and clients are cutting leverage since the october lows last year
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and joining me now to discuss is amy wu silverman at rbc capital markets. amy, great to have you here. >> good morning, frank >> what do you make of jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley saying short selling is on the rise what does that tell you about the market >> the sentiment and options market, frank, has shifted as well i would call it an inflection point from the beginning of september. a few months ago, folks could not buy call options fast enough in the magnificent seven everyone had to jump in the pool at that point in time,that was the pain trade now the pain trade is on the down side. you see that in the options in mega cap tech sucked out you are seeing it specifically in the bearishness in the put options. specifically when you look at
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mega cap tech, you see that in apple. >> interesting i have data from estery partners year to date, short sellers have lost $127 billion. i know the bear sentiment is rising, but in your mind, what are the dynamics that changed this with the short selling? >> it has been painful the another stat i have for you is last year when you looked at owning or hedging, the market has drawn down you managed 20% in the put buying hedges haven't worked and it is painful. when you try to protect yourself means the positioning is different. there are more people who participated in the upside and there is more to hedge which is why i say this is different. >> we have a little bit of time
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left, amy. what is the wex word of the day? i want to ask about apple and the sentiment there. >> my wex word of the day is pain trade it should be murphy's law because whatever is the most painful for the most investors is probably what will happen next with apple and other mega cap tech, you see that puts pick up. it is telling you there is more down side to go. >> what about apple? shares are down recently in recent weeks on china pressure what is the options market telling you about the stock which is 12% of the qqq and 7% of the s&p >> it is the heavyweight unlike the other mega cap tech name, it is not just upside, but call option sentiment is waning, but the put options are related to china stocks with a 10% down.
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>> amy, thank you. we will toss over to "squawk box. thank you for watching nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch.
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good morning president biden heading to michigan to join striking workers on the picket lines in a show of solidarity. meanwhile, the clock is ticking in washington. moody's out with a new warning about the consequences of the government shutdown. apple executive eddy cue will testify in the google case today. it is tuesday, september 26th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now.
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good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the gang's all back together. >> barely. >> we are all here let's look at what is happening with the u.s. equities at this hour you will see right now some red arrows across the board after the gains from the close yesterday. dow futures are down 154 points. s&p futures down 23. the nasdaq down 87 if you look at treasury yields, this could offer insight as to why we're seeing the declines today. that has been driving things for a while. the 10-year treasury at 4.51 the 2-year treasury at 5.12. it has been higher yields to this point that have been putting pressure

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