swift. they're 5 and almost 4 >> my son told me last night that taylor and kelce bought out a restaurant so they could go have dinner. i thought, that's kind of bad, but in truth, i realize you couldn't be taylor swift and go to a -- >> you can't do anything normal. >> so do it. >> it is a burden. >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner from post nine at the new york stock exchange this brmake or break hour, whete one might keep rising and one may fall as a rough september heads towards an end here is your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. yields, they have turned higher in today's session as the day has moved on and to no one's surprise, stocks, they're weakening. the dow and s&p now pacing for their worst quarters in a year seven of 11 s&p sectors below

the 200 day moving averages. the nasdaq where the biggest pain is today. several megacap tech names see moderate shelling. we see the names with amazon, which is sharply lower as the ftc hits the company with an antitrust suit we'll have an update on that in just a little bit. alphabet, apple, microsoft, they're all lower as well. take a look. 2% declines. that does take us to our talk of the tape is there still a bull case to be made for stocks in the year's final stretch? some suggest despite all of what we just said, the answer is yes. for more, let's bring in adam parker, founder and ceo of research, and cnbc contributor let's say that i was talking to mike santoli came up to me and said president biden obviously went to see the striking uaw workers today. said -- him saying he supports a 40% increase in pay for uaw

workers sent stocks lower. i was looking at gm and ford, they were lower. put that into context as one of those areas that has us uneasy in the markets today. >> right we have wages, we have inflation, we have bond supply and all that is weighing on the market now and until there is some resolution in the bond market and on yields, you have this heaviness on the index level and as we have seen over the last four to six weeks, it is sitting on the tech sector, which is still the best performance sector of the year places to take profits, and where investors really had flocked and once it was fomo, it was clear that it was a vulnerable place to be should something not go right the interesting thing here is that the fundamentals are quite good we're going to finish the quarter at 3 to 3.5% real gdp, supporting earnings going forward. you don't get a recession at the end of that, but the yields could stop this year. >> that's the issue, isn't it? the biggest issue is, yes, a

stronger economy is good but a too strong economy that forces rates higher, that keeps inflation in a conversation is not good apparently for stocks. >> look, it is pe times e. that's how you get the p, right? i guess one thing that is interesting is for a very long time, november 21 through may of this year, there was a strong relationship between perception of rates and multiples then it went away and didn't matter for a while there if they were hawkish or not. people felt like we're close to the end of the cycle, one more hike, two more hikes, zero, it is all the same. we talked 20 times about the fact that what was in the price was way too many costs for next year and people woke up to that, i guess, a couple of weeks ago, but you led the program with this notion of, like, is there a bull case. and i think there is

i think frankly the consensus view is we had year end highs. i think a lot of people felt like we were going to have a softer september and then a pretty good year end and i still think that's -- i think most people end the year on highs >> because, adam, there is going to be this great chase for performance from people who simply missed it or unprepared for what the market was going to deliver to us through the first eight or so months of this year and that money will rush in and take us to the promised land >> i think a couple of reasons remember, as i can tell from the look on your face, remember, i always sound dumber when i'm bullish than when i'm bearish, right? but, you know, i think the number of meetings i thought where somebody sent -- i would overallocate the u.s. equities every year and a ton of the big seven and i'm kind of good, i'm locking it in here, it is

basically zero most thought equity premiums looked small, short and bonds looked good, they looked at other non-u.s. equities, and people did not have big positions there. they're way behind and then the u.s. benchmark, most have not generated a lot of output. i think people will say, october will be perfect good i don't expect -- corporates are pretty good. the big seven fundamentals are pretty good. the case for a rally isn't that great because that leads you to believe that margins are going to come up for lots of other companies. i think ultimately get the back of the big seven i think index level will probably be good. >> so you make the argument that the market here is fairly valued where as some would make the argument that it is overvalued relative to where we started the program, talking about rates.

>> right. >> rates are and earnings are too optimistic and thus the market is overvalued how do you counter that? >> i don't think the market is overvalued k we're down 7% from the high. to me that is a good amount of consolidation in a world where yields have risen 50 basis points in the last four weeks. feels like the right reset and when you reset, you can move from there most years an average drug is like 12% if we're at 7.5, 8% today, i call it a victory. this is very orderly not the market puking stocks yet. and i think we're just in the time of the year where we expect to have some unease. the threat of a government shutdown is not helping. the supporting of 40% wage increases in uaw not helping, obviously. >> student loan? >> not helping but, again, there is something remarkable about this economy, which i think has shocked all of us, which is ultimately if you

have an unemployment rate of 3.8% and wage growth that is higher than the inflation rate, you're going to score support spending and i think that's what we're seeing here. >> do you agree with adam about this great performance chase and that's going to be enough of an engine that's going to keep the market high?% >> having worked in institutional asset management, yes, there will be a performance chase at the end everybody was offsides coming into this year on tech and on rates a little bit i think this will be a reset people will be coming in to scoop stuff up here. you're seeing stocks trading between the 50 and 200 day moving average those move much lower around the 200 day. yes, we'll see institutional buyers coming in to coast into the end of the year. last two months of the year are historically the best year after year once you have a september and october, maybe october that looks like this, you'll have buyers come in >> adam, what if jamie dimon is correct and what he says people should be prepared for higher

oil and gas prices and higher rates, says the world is not ready for a 7% fed is that just, you know, the dimonisms, things that jamie says or should we really put stock in what he's talking about because in some sense when he threw out the hurricane comments many months ago, people scoffed, and yet we did have a regional banking crisis of sorts. and we're still trying to figure out where everything is going because of a lag effect. and rates that may be stickier and higher than some have suggested. how should we put that into context with jamie dimon says is a possibility at least in his mind >> yeah, look, i'm not an expert on the history of what he says and accuracy, but he runs a huge organization and has a lot of data points. i tend to agree with the price being higher people want to make money in the equity market, they should buy

oil sensitive securities the chance of revisions there in the next 12, 18 months is meaningful, much more meaningful than the broader market. a whole list of names you can own there. i agree with that part of the argument i guess i'm excited about the ability for investors to generate positive output between now and year end there are things that are really discounting recessions and some things that are not. and most of the questions i've gotten have been about why act like things are not s-- a lot o things underneath the surface, you mentioned labor, i agree with that. we're creating a basket today for short ideas of heavy uniier labor industrial companies the government website, you can

look at exposure and assume that these guys have 19% pay increase is no good, they're going to get a -- that's going to be costly that's not great for all the industrial companies with high inventory and high valuations. there is a lot of things to do under the surface. i feel like more excited about that than i have at any time in the last few months. >> you make the argument that people should own the banks. why do you make that case when i feel like those have fallen so out of favor with people other than for the obvious argument they make is that well, they're so cheap >> well, look, i never really recommended the banks in most of my career. i would just say i think the big three are going to be better than the regionals so i think the observation i was making, scott, was i went one month without an investor or institute mentioning financials

at all not sure, not long, just overindifference was incredible. i spend most of my meetings, discretionary, and every sector comes up, we do whatever it is, 4.6, whatever the number is over time, and it was just -- i had this observation going nobody cares. and i think we all want to romanticize that's the best scenario so you're, like, okay, i could be that in banks, but stare down what they offer you, it just makes it -- sometimes consensus is right i think maybe consensus is right but it is not that interesting, even though nobody cared. >> you like industrials, given what we got union related issues as adam spoke to i've got global issues with economies around the world, who knows what is going to happen to ours, strong now, what does tomorrow bring, don't know what about industrials and why

in. >> we like industrials in the context of investing reshoring and rearming, and the transition to green energy and the close to $2 trillion coming out of this sector, oil and gas and materials and industrials and some of the utilities here we like it in that context because agreeing with adam, you have to go under the surface here there will be winners and losers and if we are going to have industrial policy in this country, not a fan if we have it, we need to make money for our clients in this way and thematic investing is the way we're doing. to that extent, we like industrials. because reshoring means that production is coming home. >> let's discuss what the other issue that is going to be the rule of where this market goes, we talked about where rates may go and that's going to dictate it largely earnings, you made the argument that we're fairly value relative to where earnings are. earnings are going to start soon and the conversation is are the banks really going to get us off

to a good enough start and are we going to get a good enough follow through we say, okay, we're not too optimistic we troughed. we're rising we're going to continue that rise and then be in a much better place next year is that plausible? >> it is plausible i don't think the big banks are going to lead the earnings tone here i think investors are just looking for them to survive whatever is coming through on the rates side i do think that the earnings on the large banks will be good enough and i do think that the multiple is reflected in the prices now for the large banks adequately reflecting the larger capital ratios coming through. so i think the regulation risk is already reflected in the prices of the large -- i think that's fine. >> what group, then, out of earnings, is going to come out and say that the outlook looks really good? >> i think it is going to be tech again. >> that's it in. >> it is going to be partially tech and i think it is some of the healthcare stocks and some

of the pharmaceutical stocks because we know our leverage to longevity and the weight loss drugs and all of that will be very good. it is under the surface. the consumer and the lower cohort, the lower 40, 50% of the income scale is not doing as well those discretionary and some staples may not do as well ultimately we think earnings will be quite good and the margins are moving higher. >> so, adam, stay with tech, if we have this burst as you say and suggest it is really possible, is that where it is going to come from we'll focus on the ballot sheets, we'll focus on the buybacks, we'll focus on all of the things that aren't nearly as bad as some of these other companies might tell us they are. >> i think it is unlikely that the market finishes higher or near highs for the year without the big seven at least pro rattia participating if not

mom more that requires earnings expectations to be much more -- for them like you said, some of the commodities, not declining at the rate people want, that's what you need. i think tech will participate, the big seven and had pretty good results if you look at the data points from this month, we use a lot of language processing for all the transcripts from calls and company presentations, generally things are mixed to positive as you look through conference presentations from this month from industrials and the like. i don't expect any big prereleases next week. i totally agree that banks are just not the harbinger for the% stock market, maybe they were in yesteryear their own regulated set of companies that are not really a broad barometer. have to look for industrials, have to look for semiconductors, have to look for consumer in

terms of dollars and spending to get a better grip on what is going on and i expect it to be mix deposited with earnings basically coming in at the expectations people had in january and february that's the real market, earnings haven't collapsed and everyone thought they would. >> they did. i'm going to sort of tease what our poll is for everybody. you say we're getting to 45 to 4600 we can still do it. >> still do it. >> by the end of this year can we do it with elevated rates? can we do it with a ten-year that inches closer toward 5% can we do that >> it depends how fast that happens. >> really matters? >> it matters. >> if we hang out at 450, we can do it from here. this is a reset, a consolidation, not a new pricing. >> i'll say yes. >> yes, yes, adam, yes >> i'll say yes. >> we can do that. if we're talking about 5% on a ten-year, we can get to those

levels on the s&p? >> yeah. because if we get the 5%, going back, the ten-year backs up, one thing that everyone has been wrong about in my career on the fixed income side is that supply is the only thing we need to analyze. i can't tell you how many two by fours i saw people run into during qe 1, 2, 3, 4, whatever, that supply was coming and the ten-year went down why? the economy was weak maybe if the economy holds up and is decent, if people think it will be above 2023, rates can back up and the market will be good. >> maybe not a hurricane we'll see. i appreciate it. adam, thank you. let's get to our question of the day. we want to know, do you think the ten-year will get above 5% before the end of the year the results are a little later on in the hour amazon being sued by the ftc,

the stock is falling, down more than 4%. deirdre bosa here with the latest >> the ftc is accusing amazon of an illegal monopoly and it is essentially taking aim at the prime flywheel for leveraging that market dominance. amazon has hit back saying the suit makes clear the ftc's focus has departed from its mission of protecting consumers and competition. lina khan came in a few years go, determined to hold big tech accountable, but so far the record has not been great. we went back to take a look, three of amazon's five biggest acquisitions have been done while in charge and mgm, one medical and eirobot there is all the investments in generative a.i taken together, all these deals over the last few years, they have made that prime ecosystem stronger and only more entrenched exactly what the ftc is trying to dismantle so this is really a make or break moment for lina khan and

amazon depending on the outcome. it will take months, years for this to play out it is interesting to see amazon down 4% today because usually investors don't react to regulation, but maybe this tells us that the outcome could not -- at least maybe it could be a slow decline for amazon or distraction for them to deal with all the cases. >> yeah. important to note, the stock was down before this announcement came out it trended lower as the rest of the market has as well megacap not having a great day deirdre, thank you. we're getting news on target, courtney reagan is here with that. what are we learning here? >> target is closing nine stores in four states it says due to theft. on october 21st, they will close. target said we cannot continue operating these stores because theft and organized retail crime are threatening the safety of our team and guests and contributing to an unsustainable

business performance the retailers said efforts to curtail theft and crime have failed and this is the last resort target says 150 stores operate in the markets where these nine stores are closing and the website, though often in retail when a store closes, some amount of business is lost. it is not necessarily all reabsorbed online or in nearby stores i reached out to ask more about the financial impact of the closures but the retailer is not disclosing any more details at this time. just this morning, the national retail federation put out its annual shrink survey on average, external theft is in line with past years that's based on 177 retailers responding to that survey. back over to you. >> you know, because you covered this space, right? we heard from so many who have used this as a principle for lack of a better word, you know, blame point on the earnings calls, as you reported what the earnings are and what they're saying on the calls and the releases, everybody feels like

it is citing this. >> you have to listen carefully to the exact verbiage the retailer cites target is calling out organized retail crime and giving us quantifiable numbers however, other retailers are saying shrink has increased and shrink in general has increased overall in retail, as sales have increased and shrink includes all forms of loss. theft is the biggest part of that as a percent of total, that theft is looking the same as an historical past, at least on average. it is very interesting stuff, scott. you have to listen carefully to the details. >> you need the context from reporters too. appreciate that. we're just getting started here on "closing bell." five star stock strategy kevin simpson breaking down his latest trades. he has several we'll find out where he is finding that opportunity amid this uncertainty live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell"

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we're back just want too alert you here, the lows of the day for stocks look at the s&p 500 down 70 and even 70 points that's 1.6%. you see the dow as well, this is a rough month, winding down. let's get a check on top stocks to watch today as we head into the winddown of the session. christina? >> let's see shares of fiskers the ev maker plans to ramp up deliveries of its ocean model to

300 a day. a buy with $8 a share now, 5.84, but up 10% they say fiskers has a lower risk business model than peers even after 150% year to date increase in the stock price of draft kings, jpmorgan still believes it has more room to grow the stock has been pretty sluggish over the last two months or so declining 10%. analysts say the sports betting sector is appealing with new market growth prospects as well. they upgrade this name to overweight with a giant price target now $37. that stock is up almost 2% scott? >> we'll see you in a bit. kristina partsinevelos. losses accelerating as we head to the close today. the s&p 500 touching the lowest level since the summer in june our next guest still finding opportunities amid the september slump. kevin simpson of capital wealth planning joins us now. we have a rough market dow is down 426. s&p upset a bit, nasdaq too. where is this opportunity to be

found today. you seem to find it. where is it? >> first of all, i think the markets are taking their lead, taking their cue from the weather in the northeast it is cold it is dreary, generally unpleasant and i think for many reasons that are correct, we don't have that same bullish backdrop that we had for most of the summer. uncertainty is putting pressure on stocks. and the fed once again last week dug their heels in and said, hey, we're not lowering rates as quickly as you want, not lowering rates anytime soon. that's giving us opportunity, scott, because there are so many parts of this market that have been undervalued, not just for september, but for the past year and a half it sounds like a broken record, but we're looking for companies that have dividends, looking for companies that grow their dividends and have low multiples. that's how you can make money. that's what i think we're in, a market that will be range bound. we're seeing a sell-off because wall street is digesting the reality like it is finally setting in the fed is not kidding they're going to keep rates

higher for longer and that weighs on multiples, weighs on earnings and maybe most importantly, scott it weighs on investor psychology. >> i'll play along with your weather thing if you want. 75 and sunny next week here as well so will this pass? are bluer skies ahead for stocks as people like adam parker suggests not out of the question at all that we could have a big run into the end of the year. >> yeah, i don't know that the big run is where my mind is at certainly the narrative hasn't changed. we're not altt the precipice of falling off a cliff. you need a bullish catalyst to move the markets higher. maybe against some of that from earnings maybe that is ultimately the fed becoming dovish, quantitative easing, talking about rate cuts and certainly that's not in the immediate future, but that's the catalyst that we have been looking for. >> what about a chase from people like you who weren't prepared for -- who haven't

performed well and need to and, you know, missed it and want to get some of it before the year is over? >> yeah. >> if i chase anything or try to miss it, that's when you want to fire me as a portfolio manager i don't style drift or do any window dressing. we have a little position in technology, microsoft, some apple, did well this year, we have been writing calls on apple, that's great. we're rotating into the other names that haven't performed the best part about my style box, the boring, the aristocrat, the dividend payers, they go through periods of relative underf underperformance, they respond favorably after that where i've been lackluster, negative, muted for the past year and a half, now i'm banging the table and saying this is when you want to start allocating we were talking about it the other week, taking some of the profit from growth putting it into fixed income putting it into the dividend paying stocks these dividend growers because since the end of 1987, that crash in october, 50% of the s&p returns come from

dividends and distributions where we invested. it is a theme that works and the timing is now. >> let me be clear i said that poorly i wasn't insinuating you weren't prepared i'm talking about investment advisers who weren't prepared. i didn't mean it to come off that way and put you on the defensive for no reason. my apologies for that. you know where i was going, right? that's the idea that there is enough underperformance from those who weren't prepared, who are now going to spur this move into the end of the year now, specifics, you bought cisco, you bought conoco, you sold calls against apple, what is your take on apple, by the way? are we heading to 160? >> probably. i love the stock so if it gets to 160, we'll buy more we were selling all year into the 180s, writing calls on it. at one point i thought we would get a call out at 187.5. this is a stock that we own for

the long term. not something to worry about from the trading perspective you have a company that prints money, always buying back shares they talk about the sales don't increase as much, maybe to a certain extent, that's true. they're incredibly well heeled in terms of fiscal management. if it gets to 160, you want to buy it we had 185, 182, we sold calls on visa, sold calls on jpmorgan, just because there has been a little bit of a hiccup in volatility recently. cisco, to us, the catalyst was this purchase of splunk because now they're able to look at their software, their cybersecurity, their cloud, really synergistically put that together cisco stays there, prints money, prints money pe is around 17. very manageable. you get a 3% dividend. the increase is like clock work 5% every year, it is a stock you can look at here, little more boring tech, but in the tech

space. conocophillips and energy, there is thematics there they're printing money they have special dividends that pay out like unbelievable rate they have been increasing that special dividend by over 30% a year for the past five years 13 pe, over 3% dividend, probably somewhere between 3 and 5 and break it all out with the special dividend whether energy is priced at $80, wti or 110, these companies are making money, focusing on shareholders, also buying back stock and that's how we want to position our portfolio moving forward. >> you mentioned tech. i'll steer you -- you haven't seen this headline, i'm about to read, i want your reaction to it in a question that i'm going to ask you. looking at the headline now, according to "the wall street journal," open a.i. seeks $90 billion valuation in possible share sale okay open a.i. valued at $29 billion, in january, and a sale of existing shares. that according to the "wall street journal." $29 billion, in january.

here we are, some 9 1/2 -- 10 months later 90 billion valuation possible share sale according to the journal. does that speak to a bubble at all to you how would you read that when we're looking at the performance of a.i. related stocks, when you're deciding whether to get on board that train, which has run away from a lot of people, speaks to the performance chase et cetera. how do you view that as a wealth planner? >> so there is two different ways to look at it if i was able to get that valuation and triple my company in the course of that short time period, they would be crazy not to bring it to market. we have seen the ipos working over the past week, i don't think they have to any great extent so i don't know how much wall street would embrace it. there is a sucker born every minute we saw meme stocks, we saw nfts, talking about a.i. being the next bubble if that comes out to market at that price, i wouldn't buy it, but others would. >> do you feel like there is a bubble in this part of the

market that we have yet to really feel the repercussions of you could say -- you could say, okay, the picks and shovels companies, the so-called picks and shovels companies of a.i., nvidias of the world, okay, that is tangible. we see what they're doing. they're making the chips and their sales, the company suggests their guidance is this, their sales are already being felt some of these companies that are benefiting from the a.i. boom may not see the monetizable gains from it for a number of years. unquantifiable as to how long it could take that raises the question whether those valuations are justified or not >> so we're thinking about it exactly the same way i said before it is not a bubble these companies make money you mentioned nvidia, microsoft, monetization when you read that headline, it changes the thought process into that sounds luke a bubble. 99, it felt like a bubble, you knew it was a bubble, it was

insane this has been more tame and more concentrated, isolated, but when you talk about a headline like that, i think i have to change my comment and say that to me that sounds s like a bubble. >> kevin, appreciate it. thanks kevin simpson joining us stocks are sinking as we head to the close. american century cio rich weiss has been bracing for a dntowurn. he'll tell us how he's navigating it. that's after the break

stocks are lower across board today as we enter the last trading week of a difficult month. my next guest warns it is likely to get worse before it gets better here to share his current investment strategy rich weiss of american century investments. good to see you. welcome back. >> pleasure, scott, thank you. >> rough out there to say the least. why is it going to get worse before it gets better? >> well, a number of reasons i guess the triple threat of the

three ss, the shutdowns, the strikes, school loans, that's probably the least of it right now. certainly weighing on the markets, and at least one of them already going to be weighing on the real economy add to that tightening credit standards, high end rising interest rates and last but certainly not least, nagging inflation. it is -- there is a medical analogy i use where the chairman powell is the doctor, administrating -- administering antibiotics in the form of tight monetary policy to try to get rid of this fever that the ill economy has. and the fever is still there, it has been coming down but he's made it clear progress towards 98.6 isn't good enough yo you got to get there we have a ways to go there that's going to weigh on the economy. so they're steering between the proverbial rock and a hard

place, right >> how do you, though, how do you -- everything you say makes sense. they're all plausible and credible views how do you make sense then of why the market is here in the first place if all of those things existed for the most part over the last eight months >> i think it boils down to fear and greed. directions sometimes overshooting again in both directions. and i think it boils down to valuation. relative valuation, bond yields rising, makes stocks less attractive i think that's the new item which is pushing stocks down today. higher long-term bond yields, relative attractiveness or unattractiveness of stocks it is as simple as that as to why the stock market has been moving down these last few days. >> so funny. i have a conversation with the very beginning of the show with somebody who says 45, 4600 on the s&p by the end of this year makes perfect sense. market is fairly valued.

earnings are going to live up to the hype as well and then some 41 minutes later i got somebody arguing the exact opposite do you not think that earnings are going to live up to where expectations have come to? >> i don't think so. earnings may come in strong this third quarter. but i think -- i don't think there is any debate about the slowdown, right? it is not a matter of if, it is to what degree are we getting a slowdown, a softer landing, i think earnings will be disappointing late this year and into 2024. but that's what makes the market, right? and at least for the past let's say year and a half, two years, okay, being positioned prudently, cautiously, safely, has been the way to go we're not trying to call the market every twist and turn day to day but over the last year and three quarters, better to be hunkered down in cash >> we'll talk to you soon, rich, thank you.

that's rich weiss, american century investments. mike santoli has made his way to post nine. why? because that "wall street journal" headline. >> i show up here every now and then around this time. >> a little bit later. open a.i. of chatgpt fame seeks $90 billion valuation and possible share sale according to "the wall street journal." valuation that was about $30 billion in january three times as high now. your thoughts. >> decent benchmark of i think how much a.i. enthusiasm in general has probably multiplied by that point. it seems as if the report is about a potential private sale so allowing employees those who have been compensated with a lot of open a.i. stock to monetize, they would be the sellers to get some liquidity >> employee shares >> yes, of course. it would also likely include some relatively up to date revenue and some details that are going to come out because the piece in the journal said,

billion dollars in revenue this year, going to many billions next year. the growth rate, the being able to put some valuation on a pure a.i. services stream as opposed to hardware is probably something that the market would appreciate, whether it would mean a reality check for the excitement around it or just kind of fuel to the fire, we'll see. >> do you think we need quote, unquote reality check around the fire i posed the question to our guest this way, you can quantify in your own mind and to some degree with real numbers, picks and shovels, nvidia says this, they're making chips that will go right into this area. other companies have that have gotten a tremendous benefit from the hype around a.i. may not realize the monetizable part of it for who knows how long, years, a decade? >> i'm in favor of reality checks let's try to get market prices down to something that is actually happening in the business on the other hand, it doesn't seem to me there are many names that are going wild to the upside

that are not already established companies with other stuff going on in other words, you can tell me microsoft added 100 billion because of pure interest in the open a.i. relationship okay it is like a $2 trillion company, right it is not as if there is a whole part of this market that are consumed with capitalizing hopes and dreams for a.i. down the road at wild levels, at least not right now. there was at one point, you had all the things going crazy, just because of the buzzword. >> that's fair but i do to some degree feel like you have gotten a big boost for stocks and by mentioning names, i want to make it clear, i'm not singling these out, they're just the ones that sort of come to mind on the list. salesforce, for example, 52 weeks ago, 126 today, 200 twilio, these kinds of stocks that we talked about and the list is long and distinguished by the way, beyond the alphabets and microsofts and the nvidias and broadcoms, where you've seen big gains, if you make an a.i.

benefit list, that list is vast. >> right i would say except for nvidia, every one of those companies, their stocks were higher at some point in 2021 before anybody heard of chatgpt it has been one of the cover stories and excuses to get excited this year, to have them reclaim a lot of that market cap that they did lose last year not saying it is all justified, but, again, if it is going to be a mania, let's see some real mania. because i don't think it is right here yet >> i'm not going to say it is not justified. i think the overarching point to what we're saying is nobody truly knows. >> no idea, yeah the market is therefore latching on to the known beneficiaries, maybe giving them too generous a benefit of the doubt on that but, yeah, we'll see >> all right better early than late so you stay right there. we'll take a quick break last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked do you think the ten-year yield will get above 5% before the end of the year the results are after this break. and you know it is coming up

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all right, question of the day, we asked do you think the ten-year yield will hit 5% or get above that before the end of the year majority of you said yes 59% in fact. all right. up next, the countdown to costco, the big box retailer reporting in a few minutes we'll give you a rundown of what

to watch for when we take you inside the already teased, but we'll tease it again, it is coming up, the market zone and later, don't miss a special edition of "last call" in wayne, michigan, tonight, following all the developments in the strike. "closing bell" will be right back

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costco earnings out in overtime in a few moments mike, first to you, what stands out to you most? >> getting a little bit spicy in terms of the downside momentum today. didn't really get out of control. but you're starting to see some concern build and part of it is you're 7% plus off and no real safety buying in treasuries. maybe that emerges at some point. i do think you also are starting to see within the index some of the ingredients come together for one of those typical oversold, risk reward is favoring a rebound rally type play and before very long, you have the vix at 20. and you have also had some of the more kind of oversold indicators in volatility and breadth and all the rest of it coming together. i find it interesting where we have gone back to in the s&p, which is june 2nd. it was a payroll friday, it was

a 300,000 plus payroll day,no more recession to worry about day and it was bond yields are tame, we can have it all that was the beginning of the soft landing hypothesis. we have tested it and we're testing the uptrend live from the october lows we'll see. >> 59% of our voters said ten-year going above 5%. surprise you >> not given the psychology of the moment and the fact that yields have just been so persistent and relentless on this level and that the atmospherics are now around when do we get to 5%. you were talking about jamie dimon. whatever that all means in terms of predicted value or not, it is -- people have widened out their scales for exactly how high this should go. that at some point gets overdone assets are surging in long-term in the trading volumes have surged in the long-term treasury etf. it seems like we're at a point where maybe it is time for a breather we'll see. >> pick your pain point today and megacap tech

amazon is the biggest loser in the complex, down 4% around the ftc headlines. >> amazon yesterday was up 1 or 2% the upside, the biggest contributor to the upside on the s&p 500. it was sitting up there on a perch. aim z amazon and alphabet outp outperformed, they had time to back off that's what i do think makes sense in terms of the reaction, even though we're two days removed from "the wall street journal" story about the hedge fund that has made a lot of money betting that lina khan is going to fail in all these efforts. the ftc wasn't going to succeed in all these cases it showed you the market was a little vulnerable to the idea there still is this threat >> taking the under, which maybe brought up tomorrow morning which appears on "squawk box." don't miss that interview. courtney reagan, costco, stock is down 1% what do we expect after the bell in overtime today? >> costco is the only large

retailer that gives us monthly comparable sales investors have a good handle on a big piece of the quarter the street is expecting 77.896 billion in revenue for the quarter on earnings of $4.79 comparable sales down 1.4% in june, but got better up 2.5% in july, 3.4% improvement in august evercore isi points out the quarter itself caps off a year with the lowest comp sale since 2017 for costco, but has growing traffic, growing membership. so a good setup going forward. membership fee expected to be worth $1.46 billion. and in membership renewal, that's one piece that is in focus. the possibility of an increase in those fees, the last membership hike was in 2017, costco usually hikes every five to six years, reluctant to hike the fee during this recent period of high inflation we're dealing with inflation is falling and he thinks the potential ty of the membership fee is coming in recent months. deutsche bank says we think it is coming, but more likely in

december so we'll see if we get insight into that after the bell here today. >> we'll look forward to that in your reporting thank you. from 447 to 553, that's the 52-week range. the stock doing that in an extraordinarily flush consumer environment. >> yeah. >> what happens now if we're talking about a consumer that isn't as flush as it was >> i think that it is always a little bit complicated when it comes to costco, for example, because they are considered to be a steadier performer, a beneficiary of those fees. i do think the market is in an all-out mini panic about the consumer resilience. that's been the story to me of this market. that's why yields are having their effect i still think it is sort of a suspect area of the market, but i don't think costco is the big culprit. >> so yields, i think we're lower earlier, we turn positive almost entirely across the curve. we have the prediction, voters

say we're going to over 5% on the ten-year, at 455 not only the move, but the speed of which -- if we get there would be somewhat of a stunner, i think, for many. >> and then all the charts project ahead, up to 5.1 or something like that at this point. i do also like to mention, though, that breakouts in yields aren't always necessarily the kinds of things that are as effective if you're trying to trade the charts i think the market has to prove it they have to prove that they're going to be some people finding value in the long end of the treasury curve at these levels when you get real yields, inflation adjusted, all the rest of it. until that happens, it is probably tough to see the stock market calming down at this point. a lot of what has happened is just mispositioning for the message from the fed that need to be unwound continually so i don't know where it ends. >> i love that word.

i think we'll use that a lot mispositioning it is how some suggest this market has steam still behind it because of dramatic miss positioning among -- >> see if that's the case there is a lot of shorting that does it for us. now to morgan and jon. >> ouch. saved by the bell. there is your score card on wall street welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. full team coverage today, and what to do tomorrow. also ahead, connecticut's attorney general joins us to break down why his state is joining the ftc's lawsuit against amazon as those shares tumble today. >> guggenheim dealmaker eric mandel tells us if the latest reg regulatory