>> and also tomorrow, cnbc's delivering alpha conference takes place in new york, with big-name guests. i will be hosting a discussion with blackstone's cohead of real estate, kathleen mccarthy. eking out gains,but barely, jon, today. that's going to do it for us at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. there are two charts and two parts of the markets are traders can't look away from. yields and energy. we'll break down why the surge in the ten-year and the crude climb continue to domination the conversation. plus, shoe dog. nike down 25% in just the last six months. will earnings tomorrow stop the slide? what the options action is saying tonight. and later, a landmark day for the marijuana industry. a senate subcommittee approving a bill to give weed companies legal access to banking services. the reaction from key players

ahead this our. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. our guest trader tonight, katie stockton of fair lee strategies. and we start off with the newest milestone for interest rates. yields on ten-year surging part the 4.6% mark, getting closer to breaking above october 2007. the benchmark rate is up 1.4 percentage points from its april low, massive move. the rapid rise in rates taking a particular toll on a few sectors. real estate, utilities among the hardest hit. and while stocks closed off their lows of the session, the attempted rally lost some steam so, how worried should stock investors be about these rate moves? we like to play a game -- >> i love games. >> here on "fast money," where i would say, imagine if yesterday i told you this would happen, what would the markets do? if i said to you, guy -- >> i love games. >> that ten-year yields would go above 4.6%, what would the

market do? >> nasdaq is probably obl oblit obliterating, russell, small caps are getting whacked. vix is north of 20. >> none of those things, and the opposite when it comes to small caps. >> which is a good sign. 4 4190-ish, got down to 4230 something today and bounced 40 handles, so, maybe close enough for government work. the market was oversold. i'm sure katie has views on this, as well. in the short-term, all very good things. definitely. with that said, the fact that the tlt really didn't bounce at all, you would have thought yields would have backed up. they didn't do it. and i said this for awhile, yields going higher is not a good thing. yields will continue to go higher until they don't, and if they start to go lower, it's because something probably broke in the equity market. i can come up with a scenario, where yields go down, it's bad for the market. and i don't think it's particularly good they go higher. >> what's your take on the action today? >> i think there's something to the trajectory of yields.

when they accelerate like this, you'd expect a much bigger impact on market sentiment. so, sentiment has gotten to the place where it is bearish, right? after today, maybe more so. we look at metrics like the vix, like the fear and greed index you and they are showing bearishness, but maybe not the point that we need. guy and i are looking at the same levels, 4180 to 4195 is support. it's not that far away anymore. and treasury yields, they are poised to confirm a breakout this frizz, so, the level that was cleared last week, it feels like ancient history, it's 434. assuming that breakout is confirmed, the next resistance is $ 5.25. it seemed crazy when i first introduced that lefshlgs but at 4.6, it doesn't seem quite as crazy. >> we talk about the seas

seasonality -- we talked about it. i feel as if i might be getting drawn in here, because i -- i'm starting to get negative. so, when you start to get negative, you have to look at the seasonality again. so, if i feel like i'm getting drawn in, what is the retail community feel like? they're getting drawn in, too. and when you look at the last four septembers, those are down. when you look at the last four octobers, those are up. i'm holding onto stocks, i sold a bunch of c-r-a-p stocks -- >> you owned c-r-a-p stocks? >> i did. i didn't feel like i bought them knowing that i own them, but i definitely over the years have figured out that they were not going to perform well in this market. >> and you got rid of those. >> but if you look at the large cap tech names, if there's going to be a rally in the overall market, those names have to rally. so, i stayed long some stuff. >> they held up very well today, considering what was going on

with rates and what held up really, really well, julie, small caps. you are our resident expert there. >> yeah. >> what did you make of that solid performance today? 1% on the small cap 600 index. >> well, you know, i think it's kind of a case right now where if you look at valuations, you know, across market cap, across sectors, you know, the place where people are finding value with still in small caps. and if things are not quite as bad as we had feared at the beginning of the year, these guys should probably be okay. the real question is kind of, what is in -- what is on balance sheets, how much risk do some of the businesses have? and like i always say, you have to be really choosey when you start playing around with small cap. but i agree, you know, i think until we get less of this bear steepening, it's really, really hard to get enthusiastic about equities. but for us, we're still looking at quality and it seems to be the best place to be in this september, that's for sure. >> yeah. >> what happens if oil comes in a little bit?

what ha what happens if the dollar comes in a little bit? what happens if the uaw strike ends? i know this could be a wish list -- >> like all of these things combined, or? >> or some of these things, some of these things start to trickle and you start to get that m mom momentum, it doesn't take a whole heck of a lot to have the market rally from where we are now. >> do you think it's going to come in -- >> i think $100 is probably the nice fat round number. i think the dollar -- just think about this. if jerome powell sees that maybe the market is taking it on the chin, maybe he backs up a little bit. maybe it's not one more. he's never going to say it, but the market will start to interpret, maybe there isn't one more rate hike, and what happens if they think that? they start running into equities again. >> okay. but the problem is that it may not be one more, or it may be one more, but maybe market's not really thoroughly factoring in the idea that rates could stay where they are right now for a very long time.

maybe that's what we're learning into. >> i understand what steve is saying. the push-back would be, the fed's a side show now in terms of one more, no more, doesn't matter, they're staying where they're staying, i think, and the move in crude oil and the reacceleration of inflation suggests they should, and quite frankly, the rhetoric they've been pretty steadfast, so, it's not them that's to blame. the market has chosen not to listen until recently. i say the damage has been done, because i don't think we've felt the effect at all in terms of 525 points of hiking. we're starting to feel it now. that will factor its way into the market, and yeemds go yield going higher should be a good thing. it's not a good thing now, because it's got nothing to cowith the economy. it's got everything to do with supply and demand, and the market is demanding higher yields to buy our debt, rightfully so, by the way, when you look at some of the problems we have here. >> our next guest said back in august he thought rates would move to 4.5, maybe beyond. let's bring in andy constand.

that was a great call by you, and news that the treasury was going to have a much bigger than expected issuance. that hasn't happened, but a lot of the move has happened. how do you expect in to play out? >> right. thanks for having me back, melissa. since the government announced a significant increase in the amount of long-term treasury bonds they plan on issues, shifting from bills to bonds, you know, the s&p is down 7%, nasdaq is down 7.5%, russell is down 11%. the two-year note which i agree with guy, is, you know, basically fixed, but is up 26 basis points. but really, the big action has been in the ten-year and the 30-year, which are up 65 basis points and 71 basis points. and as you said, the supply hasn't really come to market yet, but the supply announcement clearly mattered. so, what we're having is a bit of front-running of that, where markets price in this additional supply. and so, i think about 75 to possibly 100% of that pricing in

for the supply has happened in the bond market, and it's possible that when the supply actually does come this quarter that you could push yields a little bit higher, but i'm thinking that most of this run has occurred, and you've got 10, maybe 15 basis points more of higher yields in the near feature. >> so, you've covered a lot of your shorts in this position, andy, and that's simply because the risk-reward is not there anymore. you say that yields will probably go higher, but at this point, it's not worth shorting bonds for that move. >> right, right, exactly. i mean, you can choose to be long, short, or flat, if you are a speculative investor or hedge fund investor. and, you know, the choice right now is to have no position, because, you know, i do see a possible, you know, i do think a likely 9 to 15-basis point increase in yields, but it's come a long, long way, and so, a

bounce on weak data or any -- any sort of weakness even in equities would, you know, support bonds briefly. though i think the supply means that going long bonds speculatively doesn't make sense, because you are just going to run into that wall of supply. >> andy, great to have you on when you originally did and great to follow up now. well done. so, there's what i think could potentially happen. if yields were to go lower, marketedly lower from here, it's probably because something broke and broke meaning the equity market. and you'd have this sort of perceived flight to quality in the form of the bond market. i don't think that's particularly healthy, but that's a scenario. does that make sense to you? >> sure, but i think what -- and that is how things have played out year over year for 40 years, when things get bad, bonds rally, but it usually happens after stocks fall. and i think the -- the recent rally in bond yields, the rise in bond yields, the selloff in bonds, has not been felt yet by the equity multiple. so, i think the next step before

we get to the step you're talking about is for equity multiples to contract a little bit, you know, my sense is, the same sort of move in equities that we have had, when you add on the move to bonds, equities need to catch up a little bit to the downside. my guess is around 5%. >> you are short equities? >> i am short equities, yes. >> okay. andy, great to have you. thank you so much. >> pleasure, melissa. >> andy constan. julie, you agree with andy? >> yeah, i mean, for the most part, i think that it makes sense, logically, but the one place that i kind of wonder about is, you know, we talk about the wall of worry, but there's also this, you know, wall in the sitting in cash, earning 5%, and i just -- i worry a little bit on being too bearish, because i do think there's the potential for people who have been really happy earning 5% and looking at returns in the market that are much better than that. and starting to wonder, hey, maybe i need to get back involved. particularly if there's a nice

little correction. brave people may start stepping in. so, i'm not sure it will be quite as connected as that, and i do think it's probably going to hit, if it's going to hit anywhere, it's going to be on lower quality for sure. >> katie, do you think equities need to go down to sort of match that move higher in yields? >> i mean, we're still recommending being short, being hedged, and yet, we think that the market is potentially even within a couple of weeks of a tradeable low. we are starting to see signs of downside exhaustion, we talked about, in market sentiment gauges, market breath readings have gotten deeply oversold. so, these are all creating a backdrop that is more favorable for equities. and we have the support coming into play. there are some countertrend signals from our indicators in both yields and equities. we're supposed to get a signal countering the down move in the s&p 500 in the next couple of days. so, we're bracing for what we think will be a nice entry

point, and yet, we want to see the momentum gauges shift before we feel confident in covering the hedges, and getting more long. >> yeah, and it doesn't have to happen, when you say october is usually a positive month for the markets, it doesn't have to happen as of october 1st. so, this could be a two-week event to katie's point, or could be a week event. so i think, if you go into october, november, december, those are good months for the overall market. so, i wouldn't get too bearish. >> yeah, the seasonals are very strong in october, november, especially. i think people get ahead of the santa claus rally. december hasn't quite held that same positive seasonality that it used to. and that's a good two to three-month move that we could position for. the question is, is that going to be it or is it going to yield a lower high, keep us range-bound. >> ho ho ho, right? >> yeah, to you, too. >> gobble gobble? >> yeah, that. turkey day. but that's all good. >> happy hump day. >> love that.

listen, i understand what everybody is saying here. i totally get you. we might be within a couple weeks of a tradeable low. the question is, you know, what does that look like, that move to the downside, is it a flush? do we get a vix north of 25, which we haven't seen in quite some time. all of those things are in play. today's action was really encouraging. we traded down to levels, seemingly bounced in the face of yields going higher is a good thing. we'll see how long that lasts. and we haven't talked about the geniuses, couple hundred miles south of us that could potentially shut down the government. didn't even think that's priced into this market and that's something to be concerned about. >> here is a would you rather. >> oh. >> i'll pose it to steve. >> i love this game. did you know? >> go ahead. >> would you rather, money right now, yielding 5% in bonds, or -- or entering a new position in the stock market, spy? from here to year end. >> entering new position, spy. without question. because it's almost like buying for a dividend, right? i mean, that could -- either you

have that stat tick -- >> right, right. >> the market should be up dramatically from here and that obliterates that 5%. >> okay. >> she would have been great on "let's make a deal" like ay mon. >> i actually do host a game show. all right. moves in treasury yields got us thinking, what other charts could tell the true tale of the markets. let's go around the horn. guy, you've been looking at banks? >> kre is the one. i think small and regional banks are a huge tell. they were getting cratered into the spring for obvious reasons. they bounced on the back of silicon valley bank, somewhat counter intuitive, but the fed backstopped everything. had a huge run. giving a lot of it back. and it feels like we're going to round turn. if the regional banks start to roll here, it suggests maybe the

company is not as strong as we hope it to be and maybe there's another fly in the it onment. the kre is what to watch. >> steve? >> triple qs. seems like we're hitting a support level in triple qs, and you have apple, microsoft, nvidia, meta, and amazon, it's 40% of the triple qs. if that rallies, then the market's going to be in good shape. >> julie? >> the fed put out this chart talking about excess savings, right? and everyone says, you know, people have such a high levels of excess savings, but what really matters is who is holding the excess savings. and what's really clear is if you are in the top 20%, you still have a lot of excess savings that you can draw from. but if you are kind of below that, you're really starting to dip past where you were before the pandemic started. and so, i think looking at things on a real basis, if adjusted for inflation is important in terms of thinking about consumer spending going into the holidayen is. >> and we saved the professional

for last. katie? >> so, we're looking at the fear and greed index, and it is a gauge of market sentiment. itting a regalts a lot of different measures into one. and in july, it was extremely overbought. meaning that investors were too gr greedy, it peaked around 82%. now it's at 25% after today's action. and 25% south is an extreme oversold. and again, it has us looking out for that tradeable low. >> all right. coming up, micron on the move. we're all over the afterhours action, as results have crossed the wire. the latest numbers next. and pedaling higher. the deal that's sending shares of peloton stretching to new heights after the bell. we'll bring you the details when "fast money" returns.

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we can say q-4 earnings were a beat, but the company is still operating at a loss. q-1 eps guidance came in, i guess, larger than expected, in terms of loss. and then on the call, there were a few things, and that's -- a few negative points, and that's why we saw the stock drop. traditional server demand remains lackluster. it's the first yearover year decline since 2016. they are forecasting 2023 pc and smartphone volume decreasing, but going to normalize for 2024, which is really now, it's confusing, but it's q-1 now. and what was alarming was that 2024 cap x only slightly higher than this year. the china ban continues to impact revenue. and when i say impact, it's about a 13% hit to total revenues. free cash flow still going to remain negative for the first half of 2024. of course, they're going to bring up the bright spot, which is a.i. and their high bandwidth memory chip, which they believe is powerful enough to help with the a.i. infrastructures and

going to ramp up next year, but is that mow offset all of these points that this company is still facing? and they're calling 2024 and year of recovery. >> so, a ramp in 2024 doesn't mean -- >> doesn't -- >> it's not going to be strong in the first half, it's going to gradually grow. going f b going back to what you said before, tote day addressable market hit a multi-year look, what does that mean? that's your total addressable market, why would it shrink to a multiyear low this year? >> this past year -- they're going to say that, well, you know memory chips are commoditized in general, it follows the supply and demand chain. they believe perhaps the money has been shifting towards other type of memory products, like the high bandwidth, so, perhaps cap x dollars are going again to the a.i. build, or maybe just decreasing altogether for some companies, so maybe that's why.

but he didn't go into detail as to why -- it's a great question, why tam is down. perhaps it's an analyst question going on now. not sure. >> yeah, because that would really put the pressure on micron to actually transition to that product, which is going to ramp up next year, which is maybe -- >> meaningfully add to their -- >> guy, what do you think of this? >> great having -- we have this big desk, great not having her in that fish bowl and having her here on the desk. number two, steve can talk about this. average selling price declined mid teens. looking for 4.5%, that's 30%ish of their business. that's the bad news. here's the good news. the stock has been making higher highs and higher lows since december of last year. as long as we sort of stay above 64 1/2, we're in good shape. but you remember by any chance may 21st, 2018? >> oh, my god, it rained. >> i remember it like it was yesterday. >> i had a sandwich that day at lunch. >> that was also the day, remember this, micron is a $50 billion market cap company, they

announced a $10 billion stock buy-back, i said on the show, you know what, this is a great sign, this is showing that they're no longer commoditized, they're not a cyclical company anymore -- that was the can i say the term, balls high for quite some time, so as much as i like to think they've changed, they haven't changed at all. >> like tennis balls. >> what do you think of the chart. higher highhighs, higher lows, you said.pelled by that. i prefer stocks that are in long-term uptrends, but it doesn't look highly risky to me. >> steve? >> stock is up 36% year to date. when you compare it to nvidia, it seems like a failure. but when you look at nand and d-ram, it's responsible for 75% of their revenues. if they get into the hbm-3 chip, then the sky is the limit for a gee that's usually boom/bust for

them. china gets out of the way. why that was thought to be a 20% hit. >> you like this on a possible 2024 ramp? >> i do. >> may not be strong enough to support a.i. machines? >> i do like micron. i think people are throwing everything out and i do like my r micron here. kristina, thank you. >> thank you. here's what's coming up next. will nike swoosh after results tomorrow? the sneaker maker delivering numbers. but can anything turn this stock around? the arch support coming out of the options pits, next. plus, crude hitting its highest level in more than a year. but can it keep up its energy? the traders are fueling up on that one ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times sks square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." check out shares of pell london spinning higher, announcing a five-year proitartnership with lululemon. look at that pop in peloton. does that mean it has hope here? >> probably has some hope. this is kind of a nice marriage, i think, for both of them, right, because thank goodness lululemon realized that their purchase of mirror isn't really going to pan out the way they hoped and no one wants to buy it, so, that really tells you how weak that product is. pell loton has much more conten for them, and it makes sense for these two to pair up, where they have a lot of weakness. i don't know if that makes peloton investable, per se, but it does give them a lot of interesting distribution through the lululemon store network and a better brand that's well-aligned with their higher

income consumer. it's a good marriage they put up together. >> guy? >> i don't know if i'm allowed to say his name. remember jeff mackey back in the day? >> never stopped you. >> you just said it. >> i'll tell you this. in december 2021, he said peloton and lululemon should do something. he's nuts, i love him, but he's ahead of his time. this is more pimportant for peloton than it is for lululemon. i don't think it's going to be all that accretive to peloton. the question is, is lululemon too expensive in this environment, and i think the answer is question. well, nike is in need of some arch support. shares breaking below 90 bucks, down 23% this year. and with earnings due out after the bell tomorrow, how are you lacing up on the name? how does that chart look to you, katie? >> you know, it's a real downdraft, right? and we've seen a series of short-term breakdowns. there's risk that we see a longer term breakdown, as well. so, i think we want to avoid

these downtrends. there's a weak tape behind it, as well. that's not helping. but until you see not just, you know, support discovery, but a momentum shift, i think there's better places to be. >> options traders are betting nike's earnings move could have some real sole. mike khouw has the action. mike? >> nike saw about 1.6 times its average daily call volume today, and we are seeing an implied move of about 6%. that's in line with historical average. the most active calls really were the 95 strike calls that expire at the end of this week. buyers paying 74 cents for those. speculative bets that we could actually see a bounce post-earnings. >> what do you think? >> so, you know what's funny, if you look at sketchers, a name that no one likes, everyone has the same look. i watch, get a quick on guy. sketchers. see? everyone has that same look when you mention sketchers. sketchers has outperformed under armor, they've outperformed

nike -- >> you know what they have now? a pickle ball shoe. >> oh, my -- >> stop it. >> they have a pickle ball shoe. specifically for pickle ball. >> yeah. nike's challenge, as katie said. and the chart on sketchers, you'll think the opposite way. look at the mirror image of sketchers. >> weren't you going to play pickle ball -- >> hold on a second. i got the slogan. what is it called, sketchers -- >> don't do it. >> sketchers for pickle ball. when you've entirely given up on life. >> so mean! >> happens to be true. >> that's mean. >> mike khouw, our thanks to you. coming up, crude absolutely crushing it. but can oil keep fueling the big run higher, and what we can ex expect coming up? helima croft is with us next.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing largely flat after a whip saw day. the dow down 300 points at its low, ending off by 70 points. the s&p eeking out a gain and the nasdaq up 0.22%. take a look at shares of disney,

closing below the $80 market for the first time since 2014. meantime, oil spiking higher today, trading above the $94 market for the first time since august of last year. how much higher can prices go and what will it mean for the consumer? cnbc contributor helima croft is with us. the number, the inventory numbers out of cushing was behind the spike today. you just spoke to the saudi oil minister in calgary, so, how firm will the saudis be, do you think, in getting to 100 or going in that direction? >> i mean, right now, we clearly see momentum to $100 at brent. the big question is, we have an opec meeting next week. the saudi oil minister said, yes, we made the decision to extend our 1 million barrel a day cult through the end of the year, but he said, we're going to review that decision every month and we can go either way. it comes against a backdrop with

u.s./saudi diplomatic negotiations. the question is, will there be an energy component of a potential u.s./saudi deal? i think the biden administration would clearly like more saudi barrels on the market. because, look, there are not a lot of great options out there for this administration to get crude prices down. they are done the big spr release. the question is, are they really going to do more? we're not hearing blockbuster spr releases. they've done deals with iran, but those barrels are already in the market. so, it's not clear, really, where the administration goes next for additional barrels. >> i mean, it seems like they really don't have any tools in their tool kit at this pg to ge down in an election year. you know, if you look at big oil here in the united states, i mean, companies are not going to be, you know, operating more rigs to get oil prices -- i mean, they are run differently these days, they are committed to returning capital to shareholders, they're not committing as much as their free cash flow to new exploration, they're not operating as many rigs compared to a year ago.

that hope also seems to be -- to be gone, to increase the supply from here. >> again, that's why all eyes are really on saudi arabia. and the rest of opec. i mean, what countries fit on spare capacity that they can deploy quickly? it's countries like saudi arabia. so, again, i would say, pay close attention to what is happening in terms of the br broader diplomatic discussions with riyadh. a number of senior u.s. officials have been in saudi arabia over the past couple mo months. again, it's a deal that's going to encompass security, nuclear, saudi recognition of israel, potentially, but obviously this oil angle is part of the negotiations, because, again, the administration doesn't have a lot of good options. they would like to get this iraqi pipeline back up online that's been down for months. there's a question, could you get venezuelan barrels on the market, if they do sanctions release, but that is not likely to come until next year. so, the immediate picture does not look spectacular in terms of additional barrels.

>> has the u.s. replenished the spr or is that something we don't know until after the fact? do we know if they replenished? you talked about their tool box, but do we know if they have reflenished already? >> so, the spr is down nearly half from 2020 levels. now, in the summer, the start of the summer, they talked about being in buy-back mode. there were indications of some initial buy-backs, but then they paused buy-backs so, the question is, will the administration potentially do some more smaller scale spr releases? that could be politically challenging, but again, it all goes down to what your options sweep. now, i think they would like to get this grand bargain with saudi arabia, get the saudis to start tapering down that cut. and the saw dudi oil minister s they could go either way with that cut. the emphasis will be appealing

to riyadh, but they have to think about fall-back options. i don't think an spr release, a smaller one, is not off the table, but not a preferred option. and a bigger challenge for the administration is, the product shortages. look at the diesel inventory. those are very low. and the russians last week announced an export ban on some products. so, look for challenges for the administration in a tight product market as we head into winter, as well. >> the cure for higher oil prices is higher oil prices. there's eventually demand destruction. does that level come down in an economic situation that we have now, where consumers are feeling more strapped, they are faced with inflation in other places, interest rates are higher. how does that get adjusted? >> one of the big challenges is, you would think, at this price, it would be uneconomic for refineries to run these barrels. but when we look at the product short falls, look at the situation for diesel.

for a refinery, it is economic to still run those barrels. so, given the issues that we're seeing in terms of tight product market, there's no indication yet that at this price point we're going to see demand destruction. so, that is a really big challenge for the administration, as we head into winter. are we going to see potential product shortages, particularly in places like the east coast of the united states? >> helima, thank you. helima croft of rbc. guy? >> she's unbelievable in the space. we're lucky we have her, we have paul sankey come on to talk energy. we are fortunate to have them both. we've been steadfast in our belief that energy stocks will continue to go higher. exxon, multi-year high today, if not an all-time high. oih bumping against highs, con coe phillips, marathon, psx all do well. crude doesn't have to go anywhere and it will go higher. >> are you find ing confident i

oil, julie? >> it really looks like there's a clear floor under pricing right now, and it's hard to really see how saudi arabia, with all of its pricing power, that it has struggled to achieve, is going to do anything to really alleviate that. they're getting exactly what they want. and i think, you know, oil producers here in the u.s. are very happy, you know, to get paid more and do less, i mean, that's like my work motto, you know. i applaud them. >> katie, where is the best chart in oil snrj. >> yeah, i mean, the integrated oil plays have been so strong, the relative strength is definitely behind them, and we are seeing some breakouts in the european players. really intriguing from a momentum perspective. and with this last push higher, we do have some resistance levels being taken out. so, for crude oil, wti, $94 is a key level for it. above that, the secondary resistance is above $100 you so

that's about 101. and, you know, you can't rule it out, because you have the positive intermediate momentum, and there are no signals except for very short-term ones. coming up, a major milestone for marijuana, as the senate approves what could be landmark legislation. jane wells is live from a pot shop. jane? >> melissa, 90% of americans almost support legal marijuana in one form or another, according to pugh research. it's taken the federal government to agree with that, but up next, a huge step forward, and could you maybe use one of these in here? that's when we come back.

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on a chromebook. now they're focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ ) welcome back to "fast money." cannabis legislation clearing a major hurdle today. a senate committee approving a bill allowing marijuana-related companies to do business at actual banks. cnbc's jane wells has the latest. jane? >> hey, melissa. up until now, they would have had to pay a lot higher rates, but this is the rise dispensary in pasadena, where most transactions are in cash, and businesses that have operated legally for years still cannot get a bank account at a federally-regulated bank. but today, finally, the senate banking committee approved a

measure to let operations in states where cannabis is legal to get bank accounts at say, a chase, a b of a, and they can't be denied service just because they sell pot. >> it's going to be a very large deal, because it will be the first piece of federal legislation that actually recognizes that there is a $35 billion industry in the united states that services cannabis to our consumers. >> we really think it's a big deal for the business, and for the stock, because this kind of thing can lead to more institutional ownership in the company. >> okay, it's not a done deal. it still has to go to the full vote in the senate. and the full senate. but the sponsor of today's bill says there's still another huge challenge. the i.r.s., which will not allow these businesses to make normal dedu deductions. >> it's really absurd that cannabis businesses cannot deduct their expenses.

so, they are required by law to pay taxes on their gross revenue rather than their net revenue. >> and that puts a lot of them in the red sometimes. by the way, this industry is not immune to inflation, guys. the company that owns this dispensary says demand is up, but a lot of buyers are trading down. melissa? >> yeah, and i'm sure trading down to the illicit market, which doesn't have nearly as many taxes and fees associated with the transactions. jane, it is great to have you. guy, i have to tell you, was so excited to see you in our rundown today. >> i -- jane. am i allowed -- did we let go of the guest? >> no. >> you talk about mount rush more. can you be somebody that's above mount rush more? >> wow. >> because if there is, that's jane wells. i mean -- i dig jane wells. she's a legend. she is -- forget about cnbc. >> no. >> she's television royalty. >> broadcasting royalty. look at her. >> perfect. >> thank you, everyone.

thank you, everyone. >> so it goes without paying, jane, it's great to see you. thank you. >> thank you for having me. >> jane wells, coming to us from a pot shop. >> of course she is. >> so, we actually -- we talked to boris jordan yesterday of curaleaf and i asked him about consumers and demand and inflation, et cetera, and he said when rates are coming down, we'll expect to see the consumer to come back. rates aren't going to go down for a long time. >> not only that, but the illegal market is what you're talking about, and not -- you know, politically, right now, no one goes to jail for the illegal market, so, there's really that headwind that is going to persist, and not only that, but there's a long way to go. the biggest thing is what the dea does with the hhs recommendation to reschedule. >> yeah, yeah. how do these stocks -- they've had massive runs. >> listen, you look at basing phases, and we always say, wait for the breakout. well, they've broken out. they've cleared their 200-day moving averages, they cleared

resistance. still arguably in a downtrend, but they actually hold a lot of promise. so, for those looking for value in the space, they're showing some shifts in momentum that i think are promising. coming up, katie stockton here will go off the charts, grab a paper and pencil, so, you are going to want to take notes where she is seeing bright spots in the market. the trades are next. "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money. it is shaping up to be the nasdaq's worst month of the year, but growth stocks may be hitting key levels we're going to go off the charts with sky tee here. so, what's the case here for the growthier areas? >> we tend to see leadership from growth in stronger tapes, so, if we are talking about the corrective phase ma suring, even if just for the next two, three months, we want to rotate back into those growthier areas, the areas that exhibit leadership. one of the keys is that breath has really contracted, as usual, during the corrective phase. the advance decline line has now pulled right back into some key support, and what that would suggest is that we do see breath improve, participation expand coming out of this corrective phase. and with that, we can revisit the areas of the market, like,

say, an equal weighed s&p 500 benchmark, small cap benchmarks, which also tend to be more growthy at times, and find our performance there in the short-term so, we look at etfs like rsp, being very oversold, near some key long-term support. we don't want all of our charts to look like that, because it is a long-term range, but within that range, we have an intriguing overtold potential entry point. i think we wait for the momentum uptick, but we're getting pretty close to that. what we really like to see, of course, are those long-term uptrends, and with that, we have xlk, great example the it was a source of outperformance, largely driven by the megacaps. i think you can go farther down the market cap spectrum within technology to find outperformance, to find leadership when the market resumes, hopefully resumes its cyclical bull trend. so, xlk is fair game but you can look at something like the cloud computing etf,

and that has an oversold rating following what to me looks like a long-term turnaround that holds some promise there so, you're seeing these intermediate oversold indications, after constructive developments from earlier this year and we'll be on the search for bay to coming out of this corrective phase another area really beaten up recently, but had leadership before was the home builders so, if you look at itb, same idea you have this oversold reading, returning within the context, in this kashgs of a long-term uptrend, so, getting close, as well >> do you like these of these areas yourself, julie? >> yeah, i think there's definitely spots in technology that are pretty compelling i think for us, it's more so on the software names that are a actually incorporating a.i. and have been for decades, because it really has existed for decades. that's the focus for now home builders, i think, are interesting. some of them are particularly well positioned, and they typically -- the ones that we like have low leverage and asset-light balance sheets

those are things like dream finders homes would be interesting. >> grasso? >> well, i have to go with xlk i have to stay consistent with the triple qs. that's where you're gouge to find the value and you're going to get the most -- well, you were looking for beta, i was looking for alpha, so, we can meet up there. >> it's all greek to me. see what i did there see what i did there, mel? come on. that was funny, right? xlk is interesting looks like the smh chart, if you had them both side-by-side a huge top back in december of 2021, big selloff, traded back to those levels. seemingly failed if i look at the xlk, i actually would rather buy it on a breakout through that 175 level than to play here. i understand what katie is saying, but you're basically long apple, microsoft, and a handful of others. feels like apple is in no man's land here to me. >> is it >> apple has support, basically, in line. it is not showing any buy signals or indications yet, but these corrective phases tend to

unfold in abc fashion. i think we're in the c wave for apple, which exhibited leadership on the downside, and i do think it comes back to it on the upside. >> what's the best chart of the big cap tech >> i'm actually most compelled right now, previously was alphabet and amazon, but they are in pull-back mode. now that we've seen a pull-back from microsoft, that's the one that's showing the first signs of downside exhaustion from a shorter term perspective, but with a broader bullish context, microsoft coming up, final trades. ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪

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[speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. time for the final trade julie? >> there's a.i. hype and a.i. reality. i like the bio simulation software companies like certara. they've been using a.i. for a long time. >> katie >> i'll go with that cloud computing etf or clou. just a basing phase and pull-back within it. >> great to have you >> of course >> steve >> shoutout to dean harris from syracuse university, watching every night. westrock i think limited downside, tremendous upside from here.

>> he must be bored if he does that >> is he a dean or -- >> dean. first name dean? >> sketchers i'm size 11, by the way. psx. i think it's breaking out to the upside >> thank you for watching "fast money. we'll see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. cr" thim, "mad moneywi j amer starts right now. watching money. in the meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people make friends. i'm just trying to save you a little money my job is not just to educate, but to put this into context so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc tweet me @jimcramer. sometimes the market makes