i haven't even looked at it. where do you put it? it's in my mom's basement. she's moved a couple of times, and it's in her basement. [music playing] ♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines. european stocks hover around the flatline and the yields on the 10-year treasury have not been seen since 2007. and germany's ipo goes live with a valuation of 4 billion euro european viewers hear from the

ceo at 11:15 cet. donald trump heads to detroit as white house hopefuls trade barbs in the second presidential debate hosted by fox business eu trade commissioner tells cnbc that tie was china are one-sided after the visit to beijing as the eu questions its future relationship. >> translator: indeed our trade relationship is imbalanced we are running a trade deficit close to 400 billion euro. one of my points in the different meetings was the need for more economic imbalancing and reciprocity. warm welcome to "street signs. we will kick it off with the

fresh inflation data from germany. we have data from the state of hesse. cpi is up 0.3% in the month of is september that is an acceleration from 0.2% logged in august. we have 4.7% inflation that is down from where we were in august at 6%. deceleration from august in the month of september earlier this morning, excuse me, a couple of minutes ago, the german institute forecast at 2.6% in 2024 a steep drop off forecast from the german economic institute. we have other regional news earlier this morning showed a deceleration from august helpful for the ecb with the data from germany. we will see if there is market reaction to the latest prints, julianna >> there is an interesting

dichotomy with the disinflation pressures in germany you have just highlighted from the states this morning and investors are keeping a close eye on what is happening to the price of oil as we inch closer and closer to $100 that is really throwing another issue in the works another piece of data that investors have to digest to piece through. we are coming off a huge week for central banks. the theme and take away for most investors is that higher rates are with us and are here to stay on the back of that, we have seen a torrid couple of days the hand over from asia. nikkei is down 2% overnight. the sentiment in china continues to weigh on asian stocks around that part of the world what we are seeing in the stocks in the stoxx 600 is down .20%. a lot of red on the heat map

this morning in terms of the individual boards, we are looking at a lot of red every single one is trading under water. we were talking about budgets yesterday. italy has revised upwards of the forecast for this year and next year and lowered the growth forecast we are seeing a widening in the bund spread and downward pressure with stocks dax is down .20% we are watching for state data for the country coming up at 1:00 p.m. today. of course, as the state measures are implying, we are likely to see downward pressure building up momentum at the time when energy prices have started to turn cac 40 is down about eight basis points luxury continues to be in focus.

not a lot of movement in the luxury space today we are seeing some downward pressure in the consumer goods names. we are seeing some positive momentum in oil stocks today it is not apparent in the ftse 100, but the index is down .50%. we are seeing out performance in the oil and gas names within that basket. let's switch to sectors to see where leadership is coming from. oil and gas up .70%. shell and total leading today with glencore. we have travel and leisure down 1% ryanair is planning on cutting this winter based on boeing delays as the price of oil goes up, that is not good for the airline industry

retail is down 1%. yesterday, we spent a lot of the show talking about h & m deutsche bank is out with a downgrade for the stock. h & m has sold off in trading. let's look at yields a lot of movement in yields. let's start with the eitalian bond yield the spread has broken through 190 basis points as we continue to areview the information from italy. all of this means italian public finances are back under sc scrutiny france is down .30% today. and a significant upward movement in yields over the last couple of days as well they are taking the cue from the

u.s. treasuries. u.s. yields with the momentum. we turned around a bit this was in the overnight session. overall, 10-year treasury is 4.62%. a new cycle high a few days ago, we said we would get stabilization at 4.5 these yields continue to move higher putting upward pressure on the yield curve 2-year treasury is sitting at 5.14% as well. a lot of upward pressure in treasuries although we are seeing stabilization overnight, a lot of the market movement, especially in stock markets, can be pinpointed back to the upward pressure in fixed income to talk more about it, we have guillermo with us. >> wonderful to be with you. >> julianna and i have been trying to figure out what is going on with fixed income and so much upward pressure.

what is justifying this huge move that we see on the 10-year treasury and we are sitting at 4.6% now >> there are many things happening now. central banks came out with the message of-er for longer that has resonated with markets. if you scrutinize the yield behavior since the fed meeting, it has been about reassessment of the neutral rate. if you look at the forward one-year rate in the u.s., that has accelerated higher and driven by low rates. then there is also a lot of concern about issuance, right, in the u.s. and europe that is central banks wit withdrawing liquidity. >> i find this conversation

fascinating. i remember going into the fed meeting last week there was speculation to the fed revising upwards. they didn't. there was a lot of talk and maybe it is higher than in the past this is something that ben bernancke spoke about years ago about the savings plot and the money poured in and recycled back in fixed income what is the thesis for this moving higher now? >> i think there are various things the stories of productivity u.s. economy and tolerate higher interest rates there are stories of savings versus investments in the economy that requires a lot of investment we see that happening in the u.s. that also should push higher investment with interest rates on the long term you know, there are various reasons. the key thing going back to the fed, although they didn't revise their medium dot, the skew was

to the upside. that's what they are picking up on >> how has the march higher in treasury yields been painful for investors? >> absolutely. i think one of the things that people sometimes don't realize is bond positions have been building up with higher yields and also because people have been expecting recessions. consensus view is to have long positions in bonds and duration exposure because they defend you against the next recession the problem is that is precisely what is tested and reassessed. investors with asset managers and banks, et cetera, end up being long in the asset that is precisely going through reassessment that is the pain trade. >> how would you characterize the risk of recession in the u.s. now

>> we have a 25% probability of recession risk in the u.s. so it is significant we have to remember in the u.s. if you look at the one economy that is able to generate growth and it has been doing that consistently despite the cross currents and environment, it has been the u.s we're comfortable with that. >> i want to ask about the bank of england it is an institution you worked at and i have covered closely. i think the market was surprised they did not go for a rate hike. it was close 5-4 split tells you the committee was unsure whether to go from here do you think it was the right move and are you worried about the state of the growth trajectory in the uk looking ahead? >> time will tell if it was the right move what was at stake here is the bank has been erring on the side

of cautious and growth it has been a challenging environment and highly sensitive to service the economy which is starting to be more shaken and also to the property market. with higher interest rates, then property is under pressure i think the bank paused to try to defend growth a bit and tried to in the past we have to recognize there is still an inflation problem which hasn't gone away that's why i say time will tell if they are right or wrong when you look at the behavior of the bond market, it is reacting differently. >> thank you for joining us. now sticking with the inflation data, spanish cpi rose

to 3.5% on the year in line with expectations up from 2.6% in august flash core cpi eased to 5.4% year on year spain's conservative leader f, i -- feijoo fell short of the 176 required votes for a majority. he has struggled to put together a coalition after meeting the demands of the separatist party. he is once again expected to be un unsuccessful in a second bid >> translator: we are here so the general election result is not erased we are here that 8 million voters are not put in a corner or silenced. these voters will support us totals 11 million. this is the majority of the spanish voters who are not

independent supporters. the french government targeted a deficit of 4.4% of gdp for 2024 which is down from 4.9% this year the government will roll back energy subsidies and trim unpli unemployment benefits. france is aiming to cut the deficit to the eu target of 3% of gdp by 2027 while raising money for green initiatives through tax increases on carbon emitting companies france is reportedly exploring the idea of the windfall levy on energy in a pledge to take back control of prices. o this is according to the financial times as the government looks to cap national electricity prices without breaking eu rules on subsidies one option is collectsing edf revenue. italian government has cut its growth forecast for the

year the deficit target has been lifted to 5.3% of gdp this year from 4.5% while gdp growth is estimated at 8%. the budget forecast was increased to 4.3% of gdp from 4.7% previously. as i mentioned earlier, investors are watching as we see a widening of the spread with btp and bund breaking through 190 basis points now. coming up on the show, europe's listing landscape gets a shot in the armas schott pharma makes a debut we'll be right back. meet the portable blender we can barely keep in stock. blendjet 2 gives you ice-crushing, big blender power on-the-go. so you can blend up a mouthwatering smoothie, protein shake, or latte wherever you are!

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no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to the program. global m & a deals have fallen this year according to lseg. the first nine months of the year, it totals 28% on the year and the slowest year to date for dealmaking since 2013.

tech accounted for deals in the sector worth $286 billion. that may sound like a lot, but it is down 55% for the year. if we break it down, europe has seen the biggest fall at 46% on the year and activity in asia is down 25% "squawk box" spoke to emma miller and asked why europe is seeing declines. >> m & a is a confidence game. ceos need to feel they are getting a great deal when you look at the factors with interest rates and inflation risk and recession fears and banking crises creating uncertainty which is making ceos uncertain. schott pharma is surging pass the listing price

accounting for the value of $4 billion. we have annette with more on the deal coming to market. annette, for those new to the com company, give us an idea of what schott pharma is doing today >> reporter: schott pharma is operating in a niche market. they create vials for drugs which are injected that is a growing market it is not only the covid vaccine, but the injection market is growing by the 8% each year the company is situated in a very comfortable market, i should say that is what we have seen in terms of interest as well from

investors. the shares were oversubscribed the shares are up more than 10%. that is one of the best ipos ever for the german market essentially what you get is to be part of the german company. the company was founded in the 19th century and concentrated on specialized class of products. schott pharma is producing the specialized products for the pharma industry. loads of clients everywhere. they also produce in germany itself they say it is not the easiest market to do business, but produce high-end and sophisticated products, but it is the place to be, germany. when it comes to the investor

space in schott pharma, they are said to have bought a stake of more than 5% in schott pharma. that explains a little bit of the success story of the company here on the german market. it is the biggest ipo so far this year. next week, on wednesday, we get another big one which is a company producing components which will be a huge ipo in germany. >> all right annette, thank you for giving us an update. huge day for frankfurt don't forget, you can watch our interview with the schott pharma ceo at 11:15 cet that is a first on cnbc. s.e.c. chief gary gensler said companies looking to go public in the u.s. should do it

before tomorrow as the looming government shutdown would put agencies at a skeleton level a short timeline if you want to get an ipo one-day notice brian moynahan struck a cautious note with becky quick. >> there is a tremendous amount of activity that is sitting there. whether it is due to ipo or whether transactions with the buyouts and things it is not going to go without a certain amount of certainty. >> meaning nobody wants to bring a deal >> very strong companies, that's going to happen. the general flow idea is far away until you get stability on the data front, u.s. durable goods orders rose in august up 0.2% on the month

against the expectation of a dip. a jump of machine orders as business spending on equipment picked up. bank of america ceo brian moynihan told cnbc he is concerned we will avoid a hard landing. >> .50% gdp second quarter it slows down and comes back up above 1% at the end of next year and finally back to 2% in 2025 >> a gradual low is that a soft landing >> what caused the change? the consumer early on. if you are '22 and all that stuff and they will push it in and they have to correct it, then the consumer kept going the consumer slowed down

you have to have more risk to push the other way >> neel kashkari says the fed may have to rate rates to tame inflation and his comments come a week after the fmoc, of which he is a voting member, did not raise rates, but did signal they would move rates higher this year >> one thing that makes me cautious that we may not be as restick tstrictive as we think, out performing and the sectors that are most sensitive to interest rate hikes, autos and housing, indicated bottoming and starting to show some recovery that makes me cautious we may not be as restrictive as we otherwise would think. open a.i. is in talks with softbank's mayo son to launch

the iphone of artificial intelligence this is all according to the ft which says soft dlbank would brg in $1 billion of funding developers are aiming to create a natural and intuitive way for users to interact with a.i i saw this story, joumanna, on the way in to the show it caught my attention because it feels like in the tech space everybody is wondering the next major consumer device. it is not clear. we have just had the iphone 15 la launch nothing groundbreaking maybe the next consumer device is coming from open a.i. >> that is a good point. there was an experimentation with the wearables and they are expe expensive. some are a couple of thousand dollars. if a smartphone is launched, you

think it would be more accessible of an iphone. i think this speaks to just how much hype and enthusiasm there is around artificial intelligence use cases and it is not confined to the domain of chips, but also extremely main mainstream that is why chatgpt got so much attention last year. it wasn't because this was new, but it was the first time we are getting generative a.i. which had wide case uses for every day consumer consumers. >> accessible to everyone. how to bring this to the hands of consumers, it could be. this is the story from the ft. if it does develop into something, it could revolutionize and introduce a new type of device not necessarily a smartphone, but something we have never heard of before. >> two things is softbank

involvement and they are coming off hot with the ipo the second thing is open a.i. is still a private company. the wall street journal reporting they may be looking at a listing. if they do, the expected value is worth $90 billion that would be the biggest ipo of the year if it happens that is interesting. >> the a.r.m. point is interesting with softbank owning a majority stake this could be a powerful team. also coming up on "street signs," cnbc analysis reveals china's role in russia's economy amid the war in ukraine. we will have that report coming up next.

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revised lower with five institutes now predicting a contraction of 0.6% this year. germany's biggest ipo of the year goes live with schott pharma you can hear from the ceo at 11:15 cet. donald trump heads to detroit as white house hopefuls trade barbs in the second republican presidential debate hosted by fox business eu trade commissioner dombrovskis says the eu questions its future relationship with beijing. >> indeed, our trade relationship is very imbalanced. as you mentioned, the trade deficit is close to 400 billion euros. the main point in the different meetings was a need for more economic balancing and

reciprocity. let's talk more about the interview. trade ties with the eu and china have a new focus electric vehicles come amid a probe with the non-chinese brands like tesla set to face scrutiny eu commissioner for trade dombrovskis said the full scope of the investigation has yet to be decided sylvia took part in that interview today. i thought it was interesting to speak with dombrovskis after the trip to beijing. over here, since the state of the union, we have talked about the new investigation into anti-subsidy practices within china. what more did dombrovskis tell you? >> i would like to give you context. we did get the announcement. right off the back of that,

european automaker shares went up on the news since then, there was speculation of who is going to be part of the investigation and what companies will actually be impacted i posed the question to the trade commissioner dombrovskis to double check if tesla and other european car brands will actually feature in the investigation. this is what he had to say >> translator: at this stage, the scope of the investigation is not decided yet we are doing the initiation consultation with the chinese authorities and the scope is still to be determined what has been announced so far from the commission side is that it does not cover only chinese brand electric vehicles, but it may cover other electric vehicles the exact scope and which producers are covered is not

decided at this stage. >> it could include tesla or other european brands as well. i would like to ask as well because you were constantly pressed by chinese officials when it comes to the specific probe. one of the comments we got from chinese authorities is that they are worried about europe's protectionist views. in conversations with chinese officials, at any point, did they mention retaliation measures from china given the investigation you just started >> well, this topic was raised from the chinese side during my visit. i was reassuring chinese authorities that this is well established process anti-subsidy investigation and we will conduct it in strict compliance

with eu and wto rules and principles it is a fact-based investigation. there will be ample opportunity to engage with chinese authorities and chinese industry to determine the possible presence of trade distorting sub subsidies. then it is only that part which is rebalanced. >> commissioner, it is karen jumping in there are concerns of batteries in the united states this is flagged by the likes of gm that there is overreliance on chinese batteries in a bid to catch up in the electric vehicle space. when it comes to europe, there is a concern we are replacing russian energy with the problem with batteries out of china in a bid to catch up. is europe too reliant on chinese batteries? >> well, as you know, it is a european union and we hold

initiatives in the area exactly to step up production of batteries. so-called battery alliance and a number of initial deals associated with this looking into how to scale up extracting of necessary minerals for electric vehicles. there is lots of work going on in the eu to step up our production it is true as we were unwinding the study on independence on the russian fossil fuels, especially the natural gas supplies, it is important we don't end up in another dependence and we are looking more for eu production capacity, but also for diversified and resilient supply chains across the world. >> dombrovskis is there confirming that non chinese brands of ev makers could

feature in the investigation i want to refer the question of timing here because when we spoke to a colleague of dombro dombrovskis', he said no new tariffs soon we have european elections in june of next year. there is a question mark of any concrete developments coming out of the probe sdp >> don't forget the u.s. elections as well. if trump comes back, the trade situation will explode again >> that explains the reaction in the automakers the timeline is more clear and it is a more muted reaction. thank you, sylvia. let's look at european markets. we have been open for an hour and a half we have red across the board a broad based pull back. the ftse 100 is leading the losses at 0.8% we have a little bit of resilience in spain. ibex at the flat line.

a down beat start to trade in fx markets, we are keeping an eye on the dollar. it rose to the highest level since november yesterday the dollar is trading on the back foot against currencies dollar/swiss franc and sterling is bouncing .3% u.s. futures let's look at wall street. we are looking at red across the board. fairly muted in terms of the magnitude of the moves indicated. yesterday was a muted day despite the selloff in bonds equities are taking a breather with the exception of energy prices elsewhere, new cnbc analysis shows chinese firms are playing an increasingly critical role in sustaining russian economy and bo boosting the military

capabilities karen joins us on set. it was interesting the u.s. micro chips finds its way into russia. this is the next video tell us more >> absolutely. you say it was looking at the western goods finding their way into russia. now there is evidence that chinese companies are supplying russian military with dual-use goods. these have scivilian and militar applications with drones and radios and batteries our analysis takes a look at the companies involved let's take a look. >> reporter: in 2022, china sold $500 million of semiconductors to russia. up from $200 million in 2021 chip sales from hong kong to russia also doubled over the same period while imports from the west slumped as of march 2023, china sold $12

million of drones to russia. >> chinese authorities are aware of the trade flows they are large enough that they could not continue without the help of the chinese government >> reporter: among the companies connected with the sales is the chinese drone company dji which provided unspecified number of drones to russia from september of 2022 to january of 2023 according to filings that is despite dji saying it suspended all sales to and business in both russia and ukraine as of april 26th, 2022 one of the recipients of the drones is the moscow based company. before the war, the company was dji's official distributor in russia another company imported 54,000

helmets. construction or military helmets according to the wording of the filing and another two companies were involved in late 2022. i should say nbc reached out to the companies mentioned and dji said they are not able to control where their products go, but we see evidence otherwise. other companies we reached out to we received no response the full investigation on cnbc.com goes further into the other companies involved it is the trade of under appreciated goods that analysts highlighted to me. fibers used in vests and construction equipment to help fortify the defenses against the ukrainian counteroffensive a lot of contributions there the question we are facing is

how much of this is an orchestrated effort by chinese companies or leveraging for opportunistic cases. >> many cases in china, these companies are state owned over the actual government. that is coming from the top-down authority. >> it is a difficult one it is unclear, but analysts i spoken to and one highlighted in the segment says it is likely they are aware, but western officials have to see if they target the companies with potentially limited impact or reach out and go against the beijing authorities, but with wide reaching ramifications. >> is this china against sanctions? they are free to trades with russia >> they are. they said they won't supply arms, per se, but these other

goods. it is down to western officials to decide whether it is enough of a reason for them to target beijing and say this is not acceptable >> tying back to the earlier video that joumanna mentioned was about key u.s. components were making their way to chinese goods and then exported to russia and used for military purposes what kind of response might we see from western authorities is there anything we can do and are there western components in the goods? 12k3w >> this was focusing on the chinese companies. from people i spoke to at the time for that report, they are saying there needs to be more due diligence from the western companies to make sure their goods are not ending up there. it is good we said they should not end up in china -- sorry, russ russia, but you have to make sure they don't.

>> fascinating wher where can we watch >> cnbc.com. >> for more how chinese companies are sustaining the russian war machine, check out karen's article on cnbc.com. still ahead on "street signs," rising tensions on the gop debate we will bring you the latest from california next

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welcome back america has three days to go before the potential government shutdown house speaker kevin mccarthy spent wednesday to dry to bring forward a stop-gap funding bill with members of his own party refusing to back the bill. house republicans tried to sweeten the bill with one proposal to cut lloyd austin's salary to a single dollar. seven republican candidates

faced off wednesday night in what could be little more than a battle for second place. the frontrunner in the polls was absent donald trump held an event in michigan former governor chris christie spoke out during the debate. >> donald trump should be here to answer for that, but he is not. i want to tell you, donald, i know you are watching. you can't help yourself. you are not here tonight not because of polls and not because of your indictments. you are not here because you're afraid of being on the stage and defending your record. you are ducking these things you keep doing that and no one up here will call you donald trump anymore. we'll call you donald duck >> thomas joins us now thomas, i wasn't going to start here, but let's start here

chris christie doing his best to speak out on donald trump. he is the most vocal within the republican camp. outside of the jabs of his absence, all of the candidates steered clear of criticizing donald trump what do you make of that and their choice to avoid calling him out and his track record >> absolutely. it is great to be with you i guess you have to give points for chris christie with creativity that got a laugh from the audience to your point, no one is attacking donald trump except chris christi and ron desantis to a point it is possible to run against donald trump without attacking donald trump it doesn't seem to be the case if you look at the polls no one is budging. donald trump's numbers have continued to improve there is the catch-22 that all

are in if they go too hard, they will risk the core maga base. i do think this is a race for second place and maybe a place for the vice presidential nod. what it doesn't look like is a serious challenge to donald trump's frontrunner status of the republican party. >> thomas, that was my next question if none of the candidate chipped away at donald trump's pop popularity yet, what will happen >> we have to see candidates drop out after iowa. if you look at the polling numbers, donald trump has 55% of the vote if you take the other 45% and you en masse into a single candidate, you would see it erase. that would require all of the others to be sackzacsack -- sacd

there is a collective action problem which is what is good for the movement against donald trump is for all of the candidates to sort of drop out and could coalesce around wone. as long as this is fractured, it is unlikely a candidate could make a serious run against trump. >> one interesting issue is foreign debate obviously because of the u.s. involvement in the war in ukraine. there is one person that stands out which is nikki haley what is her experience setting her apart from other candidates on the platform?

>> she was the united nations amba ambassador under donald trump. she is so tied to donald trump, it is not clear if she can separate herself on policy she has tried to take the above the fray position on ukraine and being supportive i'm not sure that resonates with the republican base where there is so much disagreement about whether aid to ukraine is a good idea or bad idea or should we cut back or give more? that is center stage with the de debates looming over the government shutdown. nikki haley is trying to state herself as a position of gravitas and has experience on the world stage. >> when it comes to the frontrunner, former president trump, obviously there are

mounting number of legal cases and indictments. it is tough to keep track of it all. next spring is key in determining his fate and if essehe eventually does get convicted. if that is the case, can he still be the presidential flont r front frontrunner? >> i think he can. based on the experience of indictments and criminal charges only continues to help him he will be distracted and it will be difficult for him log logistically attend the court dates and run the campaign you don't need to do anything. you can sit back and go on cruise control whether that bleeds into the general election, assuming he gets the nomination, i think we're in different territory because it is not this gop nomination that default supports

trump on everything, but the moderate voter who will make the difference i think we still can't make too many projection bss about what e calendar will look like as donald trump will try to delay, delay, delay his hope is to be in the white house to gain immunity or shutdown some of the prosecutions within the justice department i think that's his bet at the moment. >> looking back at the first debate, ron desantis was standing back on the sidelines does he have a viable strategy if the other candidates rally around one of the alternatives to trump could it be desantis >> you know, i think the notable thing about desantis is how much he is ignored by the other candidates they don't see him as a threat besides desoresantis, go up andw

the line and it is hard to see anyone making a serious run. nikki haley is a clone of trump as is tim scott. i think theyare vying for vice president slots. ramaswamy wants to take the america first agenda further mike pence spent four years defending what trump did chris christie is the outlier. the best bet is for desantis to have a respectable showing in iowa and gain traction in new hampshire and hope that is enough >> thomas, we're running into the break. thank you for joining us today thomas gift. founding director of the politics that is it for us today. "worldwide exchange" is up next. ice-crushing, big blender power on-the-go. so you can blend up a mouthwatering smoothie, protein shake, or latte

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. we begin with stocks on track for the worst month of the year as september looks to live up to its bad reputation. three days to go and no deal in sight after house speaker kevin mccarthy rejects a bipartisan plan. and progress in hollywood and the studios and actors head back to the bargaining table no such luck in detroit. apple's iphones may be too hot to