that's -- >> amazing. >> unbelievable. >> mastercard, you know how i got to it? i did a pad like this, landed on mastercard and that's how we picked it. it's unbelievable. >> oz is the bleep. >> thank you for watching "fast money." thank you, oz ♪ there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you money. my job not just to entertain but put it in context. call me 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. memo to the bears. beware of an oversold market. it might be a sign that you've overstayed your welcome.

last night i told you that whenever we have an intraday rebound from a big decline based on pretty much nothing, as what happened yesterday around 1:40 to 1:43 p.m. then you could have a chance for a real run the next day. i've staked my career on being able to spot bottoms and tops. and that intraday pivot often signals a real sea change in the market. sure enough after a slow start the dow rises 116 points, s&p gained .59% and the nasdaq jumped .83%. when the market was once again cascading down, out and out capit capitulation, and then it just stopped. and then it started rebounding like crazy almost into the close because none of the prevailing negatives actually changed the higher interest rates, soaring price of oil. the rebound was widely dismissed. hard to take seriously when the fundamentals haven't changed at all, isn't it? but i choose not to dismiss it because these kinds of against the prevailing mood moves can be very meaningful.

they have been many times in the past. a pivot like this is often a precursor to theto a change in the animal spirits of the market. you just don't know it yet. this morning we woke up to rates still higher while oil briefly touched $9 a5 a barrel. price so close to our $100 target, 95 to 100, five bucks, that i hope you took the opportunity to ring the register. given how close the price of oil and bond markets are correlated -- causing interest rates to soar for weeks. right as we near the awful month of september. and the profit taking in oil appeared right on time right on schedule to bring a smile to bullish traders who were so happy to be within a couple of handfuls of hours before october begins. remember that calendar shift shouldn't mean that much. it's almost like hocus-pocus. but i repeatedly told you that september would be terrible. we said it again and again on the show. that's been the seasonal pattern for many years. we're banking on it happening again. although we misjudged how bad it would be for the bulls.

if the seasonal pattern hopes up a nasty september could pave the way for a bountiful october. historically the worst things are in september. the better they get in october. and of course there was that s&p oscillator reading that i mentioned yesterday. that's the paid service that can show you when too many investors are pessimistic, as measured by selling pressure. the oscillator starts in no man's land where it sells you next to nothing. but when it rallies to plus 5 that means there's too much exuberance and -- >> sell sell sell! >> you've got to sell because the market's overbought. mirror image holds on on the down side. when we were minus 5 coming into the session all it did was get worse intraday. >> buy buy buy! >> a minus 5 reading on the oscillator means we're due for an oversold bounce. and believe me, it's going to happen again if that's the case when i just looked at the numbers. sure enough as i mentioned oil reversed and reversed hard. west texas crude falling 2% from yesterday's close and a few more percent from the market price. could be the beginning of something new. maybe supply's coming on. this stock market's always pretty binary, though, right?

there were a whole series of economic numbers this morning all over the map that showed economic strength, economic weakness, but lately all that matter is the price of oil. the price at the pump matters to the consumer psychology of course. when it goes lower we feel better. but sometimes that's simplistic. meaning money managers who will sell bonds no matter what when they see oil going higher because oil's a leading indicator of future inflation. either way when oil reversed the bears were caught leaning in the wrong direction. they lost control of the narrative for once and the whole market suddenly improved. i want to give you some examples of the sea change and how it works. for example, we all know techs have been pretty miserable of late. last night micron reported a good quarter paired with a miserable forecast. analysts have been looking for the exact opposite they thought it was going to be a bad quarter with a good forecast. the grim guidance normally would have crushed the whole tech sector. i thought it might. however, when i interviewed micron's ceo this morning i found the situation confusing because while he saw his chip business bottoming he didn't see that being followed by a big

increase in earnings, which is normally what you'd expect, right? in fact, it was the opposite. he expects free cash flow to stay incredibly negative. i know, i was very let down by the projected losses. i thought micron would put a damper on the entire group when i saw how bad it was. instead, and this is the sign of the sea change i'm talking about, micron's bad guidance was ignored by the rest of its sector. the semis rallied in a remarkably positive display that brought up everything from applied materials. nfd nvidia, amd, among the best performing sectors in the entire market. for the first time we saw some flexibility from uaw. there was a report today that the union's now backed off their 40% wage boost demand. and now they're asking for 30%. that to me is a sign that while they want higher pay they no longer want to wreck their employers in the process, which seemed to be the case just days ago. a sector that's become untouchable finally had something positive come out of it.

later in the show i'll make the case for -- maybe a little cautious of consumer spending but today the retailers put on a pretty good show. in a rare break from the relentless slide down, no doubt related to the decline in oil. i think that's ridiculous, oil going down a couple of bucks won't translate into an earnings bump for macy's or tjx or costco. still has that's how this market works. that's the correlation. retailers rally. of course this is an easily dismissable run. it's been denigrated repeatedly as nothing more than i ashort covering effort all day on our air as the bears ring the register and take? profits. and when you're a short seller you ring the register by buying stock. i want you to take the opposite app approach, though. sure, when you get a big decline followed by any rally of any significance it is natural to aum soo the whole move's fueled by short covering. as you can imagine, when you see stocks climbing on the thin read of a $2 decline in oil, it seems like there's nothing else to it. but what if i told you that what happened today is really very different from what's been going on, that approximate 1:40 p.m.

bottom yesterday, the train day bottom, they finally finished selling. maybe it's because they feared october, which historically proves to be pretty bountiful for tech stocks. maybe they couldn't imagine selling so low after causing the low themselves. or maybe they were finally seeing buyers as they smashed stocks down. it really doesn't matter, though. in the end the stock market is about supply and demand. at that moment in the early afternoon yesterday the sellers ran out of supply and the buyers got very voracious. ? buy buy buy buy buy! >> now, what if this rebound's chimerical? almost every rally i followed that i liked started just like this, a pivot up and then a break in one of the most bearish of indicators the price of something, this time crude. then a sluggish open a test of decline, the four holds and then you're off to the races putting fury into the hearts of the bears. and that is what happened today. bottom line, no matter what

there's a fascination of finally being through one of the worst months of the year as we head into a new month that tends to perform pretty darn well when it comes home with a full head of bearish steam. that's right, the bears are fueling this one. so we bought a bunch of stocks this morning for the charitable trust. if you were a member of the cluck you would know it and be proud. just like the thesis i laid out here. all i can say is so far so good. i like the odds going into a month that despite a couple of crashes has been very, very good for the bulls. alan in florida. alan. >> caller: thanks for taking my call. i'm a first-time caller. >> excellent, alan. how can i help? >> caller: you know, jim, i've been trading for over 50 years, i hate to admit, and i've seen companies buy back stocks responsibly. i've seen other companies destroy themselves by buying back stock. but bkng is something i don't understand. they have unbelievable earnings. they have bought back stock with all of their earnings. but in addition, they have gone into debt in the last year,

they've gone from 8.5 billion to 13.7. and the next quarter probably over 15 billion in debt buying back stock. and their shareholders' equity in the last two years has plum m meted from 8 billion to a negative number. am i missing something or is it a recipe for disaster? >> i don't think it's disaster because the company's business is very good. and glenn fogle is a seasoned operator. i've known him for a long time. i don't like what you just described, though. that makes no sense whatsoever. you just don't do that. and we're going to have glenn on. i'm going to ask glenn to come on and explain that. you deserve that. after 50 years you deserve that. and i thank you for your confidence in calling on me since you're completely a pro raising a very good question. how about we go to zack in texas? >> caller: mr. jimmy, how's it going, man? >> not bad. you know, kind of hanging in there. what's going on with you? >> caller: oh, man. hey, i'm just getting ready for that packers game tonight. go pack go. >> i don't know. is watson going to play? is a.j. back? >> watson's playing. >> watson's playing? then you're going to win.

that's it. i know you're going to win. >> caller: my man mr. jimmy, mr. new york city. all right, man, here, i've got a big dilemma going on. >> okay. >> caller: so i invested in a lot of shares last year in disney stock. i want to say around the 140 price range. >> sell sell sell! >> caller: what do i do from here? >> i had this discussion with jeff marks today for the club, and i said you know what? i think the rally is going to start in october. maybe we buy some disney. and he said, maybe not. i didn't say anything. it remains to be seen whether or not yesterday's reversal has staying power. but the thought of coming into of the best months of the year full of bearish sentiment, that ain't cutting it here. "mad money" tonight. after a host of announcement the stock still plummeted today, its worst day since march 2020. what a bummer. was that warranted? come on. or was it an overreaction? why don't we speak to the

co-ceos? then fintech the last couple years and i will is it not back on wall street. what is in the segment? and train technology, tt, looking to be the clieng of climate. is that the thesis investors should focus on going forward? i'm getting an update from the company's top brass. how about those questions? weren't they terrific? stay with cramer. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer. #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com. or give us a call. at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. (sfx: stone wheel crafting)

♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ the citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn you more cash back in your top eligible spend category. hi. you don't have to keep tabs on rotating categories... this is the only rotating i care about. ...or activate anything to earn. your cash back automatically adjusts for you. can i get a cucumber water? earn 5% cash back that automatically adjusts to your top eligible spend category, up to $500 spent each billing cycle with the citi custom cash® card. i love it.

this is spring semester at fairfield-suisun unified. they switched to google tools for education because there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook. now they're focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ ) is it possible my network could take my business knowing that their data to the next level? it is with comcast business. powering all your devices with gig-speed wifi. and you get fast downloads and uploads. pick it up! pick it up!

oh we got this! because it's powered by the next generation 10g network. more speed for your business? it's not just possible. it's happening. get started for $59.99 a month for 12 months. plus, ask how to get an $800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet bundle. comcast business, powering possibilities.

okay. everybody was talking about today what the heck just happened to the stock of workday. it's the cloud software company, helps businesses do human capital sxhjt financial planning. how'd this stock plunge more than 8%? particularlit since tech had a nice reversal. last night workday held its financial analyst meeting alongside their big workday rising user conference. they brought out some three-year financial projections. wall street didn't like them. if you look at them in a vacuum they're terrific. tons of companies would kill for these numbers. but everything in this business is relative and relative to workday's previous guidance some of these new forecasts were incrementally worse. for example, rather than growing subscription revenue by 20% plus, they're now talking about growth in the high teens. that's not what anybody wanted to hear. hence why the stock got on lit yailted. unfortunately the forecast overshadowed what i thought was a lot of interesting ai product announcement this week. what do we do with it here? let's check in with aneel bhusri, co-founder and co-ceo and carl eschenbach, co-ceo.

gentlemen, welcome back to "mad money." >> hi, jim. how are you? >> all right, guys, let's go right to it. i can't ignore the fact, aneel, it was the worst day in quite a few years for workday's stock. in response to your new three-year financial targets. so why don't you tell me -- it was incrementally worse, no more than that. what are some of the main assumptions that made you feel like you had to guide a little lower? >> well, i'll start by saying that we're all facing an uncertain economy and we just wanted to put forth projections that we believed were achievable and dealing with uncertainty. and carl can get into more of the detail. >> yeah. first of all, how are you doing, jim? we're proud to be here from our -- live on the floor at our user conference called rising. we have more than 15,000 people with us here this year. it's more than double what we had last year in orlando. and we rolled out a whole bunch of new technologies. there's lots of partners, lots of customers. there's a lot of energy.

and to your question specifically yesterday we did have our financial analyst day and we shared with them what we call a three-year durable model. and that three years shows us growing the business at 17% and 19% over the next three years. and to put that into perspective, jim, this year alone we're growing 18% on the top line. so we're saying even as we scale from 7 to 10 billion dollars and beyond we're going to continue to grow at a similar rate that we're growing this year. by the way, it's a very profitable business and if you look at what we've achieved so far this year, jim, at the end of q2 we actually raised our guidance both on the top line and the bottom line as we headed into the second half of the year because we see strong momentum in demand for our products and technologies. >> carl, i think a lot of people don't realize when you have a trade show these are not just for show. you are actually winning some business. i can't ask you to give up customers' names, but what are the verticals you feel like you've made great inroads on in the last 48 hours? >> yeah, well, as you know, jim,

we do go to market and we focus on specific industries and verticals. some of our most exciting verticals are financial services, health care, government, state and local government's a big driver for us. financial services. and many others. we definitely have a strong robust business and it's very difference across many industries. and here this week we've rolled out a whole bunch of new solutions both on the hr side and on the finance side for those verticals. and i can tell you the excitement and energy is off the charts here in san francisco this week. >> well, i think it's terrific. i've got to tell you, one of the things -- you were the first person to say this. you were the first person to say listen, it's expensive up front. you've got to understand this is not a cheap thing and the reason why it's really hard to do is there's a hit at the beginning. but you also explained the payback. could you just explain what people should start understanding with ai is there is a cost associated to it

that's higher than what normal business is? >> well, so just taking a step back, i think ai is as important and maybe as disruptive as the cloud was. you know, workday was a company born in the cloud, and i think ai is that scale of importance from an innovation perspective. different than the cloud, these large language models that ai are based on, they require massive amounts of compute to build the models and train the models. so there's an up-front cost that we all just have to recognize. i think those costs will come down over time. but it's a heavy investment. workday is making those investments. and the reason we're making those investments is we think these technologies will bring huge competitive advantages to our customers. both in terms of better automation, better insight. we're not trying to replace people. we're trying to augment what people do in a very thoughtful, ethical way. so this technology's really

powerful but it is expensive. >> okay. so carl, what is the co-pilot advantage of your ai and ml for managers that you spoke to? >> yeah, well, listen, we have a great co-pilot story. driven by gen ai for both hr and finance. we showcase a number of these innovations yesterday during our keynote. we called our innovation keynote. and we are going to make our managers much more effective and efficient. for example, you no longer have to write a job description. you no longer have to write, if you will, a career growth plan. that will all be automated for managers and reducing their time, right? from writing to actually having those important conversations with their employees. >> okay. that's a great point. because aneel, you're talking about workday uses 30 million job descriptions. now, you could waste days of time and move up can you get that done with ai and ml? >> i think you can take hours.

a process takes hours. take it down to seconds to minutes. it's massive. and it's not the work people like doing. they don't like writing job descriptions. if the ai can write it for you, why not? frees you up to do more important work. >> i do love -- i always -- you're probably sick of me for saying it but i think universities which have just an abusinessal record of trying to keep tuitions down, horrendous, you are the only force that i have ever seen that is actually driving the cost of tuition down. and you keep winning colleges. what are you doing right that makes it so tuition's less? >> on the product side we've been focused on higher education almost to day one. it goes back to my co-founder dave duffield. he's been involved with building systems of higher education since '60s early -- financial products which do cut costs relative to other technologies bring down the cost. but then we built a student

system specifically for higher ed that is both dramatically better use for the students and administrators but also at a much lower cost. >> see, i think that's amazing and it's so important because it's going to cost $100,000 a year to go to college. that's not right. we've got to stop that. i want to thank both these gentlemen. and you heard what he said about -- the slowing growth rate is not really going slower. okay? it's a new bench plrk. carl eschenbach co-ceo of workday and aneel bhusri, co-founder and co-chairman of workday. >> announcer: coming up as fintech fumbles two big players look mightier than ever. do mastercard and visa hold the best hand? find out, next.

icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

as we approach the one-year anniversary of the major market bottom of october 13th, i think it's worth looking back on what's changed and what didn't over the last 12 months. so many stocks have been crushed in 2022. but they've -- some of them rebounded like crazy from the lows. but not all of them. take financial technology, the fintechs for short. these were some of the hottest stocks on earth in 2020 and 2021 before becoming horrific losers -- >> the house of pain. >> -- in 2022. but while some of them have rebounded substantially from the lows they're still way, way, way off their highs. paypal, block, the artist formerly known as square, are both down significantly over the past year. each still off 80% from their highs in 2021. many of the fintech disruptors came public during the pandemic. they've rebounded off their lows but it's hard to say they're doing well. take affirm, that's that buy now pay later pioneer. it's more than doubled from its lows last year.

but it's still down 88% from its peak in 2021. upstart still off 93% from its peak. it's only up slightly from where it came public in 2020. robinhood with its disruptive brokerage app has been flatlining around 10 bucks for the past year and a half. it's still down 89% from its post-ipo peak. now, there are two exceptions. 11.70 at its highs in july. although it's been crushed in the past couple months it's pulled back to 7 and change. kind of interesting. by contrast when you look at the original fintech companies i'm talking visa and mastercard they've been practically unstoppable. both stocks hitting new 52-week highs earlier this month although now they pulled back maybe 5% to 7% from those levels. boy, are they getting attractive. still visa's up 11% for the

year. mastercard up 15%. so well run. you could have just sat on both stocks for the last three years and you'd have nice wins. my charitable trust owns a little bit, made some money, should have held on, should have would have could have is bad news, though. you've got to ask yourself why are visa and mastercard doing so well when every other fintech stock is light years away from its all-time high? is this the revenge of tried and true tech? when the growth stock bubble popped nearly two years ago wall street abandoned unprofitable growth at all cost stories and embraced companies with with actual earnings. visa and mastercard are mature companies that make tons of money with earnings growth in the low to mid teens. they're what we call senior growth stories. they're the archetype. the new fintechs were only junior growth stories and that was before the growth withered. affirm's deeply unprofitable and remained that way for the foreseeable future. upstart turned a profit in 2020 through 2022 but then they got into the lending business just as the fed started raising interest rates relent lgsly.

so they're expecting to lose money this year robinhood might be on the verge of producing positive earnings although even if they get there we're talking about a mince skooul number. paypal and block are a little more controversial, a little different. both have been profitable for years. while theying experienced major earnings shrinkage in 202-22, good numbers next year. how come paypack and block can't seem to get their groove back? it's not that the stocks were expensive they used to be but now their valuation's much more reasonable p both cheaper than visa and mastercard. you have to ask why they're cheaper and i think i know the answer. paypal and block trade at a discount because many investors don't believe they can make their numbers. on the other hand people willing to pay up for visa and mastercard because they know these are the most reliable stocks and here's a word you don't hear much when it comes to fintech. they are consistent. which brings me to -- since late last summer most money managers assumed we were heading to a recession. that was that yield curve nonsense i told you not to worry

about. and that changed in late spring. but for the last couple months recession worries have resurfaced. we're seeing signs the economy is slowing and the fed has more to do fighting inflation. which likely means more pain. >> the house of pain. >> in short people expect the economy to get worse and most forklifts spill why don't know how the newer fintech plays will hold up during a slowdown. i don't know either. it's not like a recession would be good news for visa or mastercard. there would be less spending so they'd make less money from transactions on their payment network. i think that's the reason both stocks have been clobbered in the last few weeks. but unlike affirm or upstart we know exactly what a recession means for visa and mastercard these two companies are almost as old as i am. they've seen many recessions. during the great recession they both did fine. mastercard grew sales and earnings every year from 2006 through 2010. that is incredible. and every year since the pandemic -- until the pandemic hit in 2020 visa came public in the middle of the financial crisis in 2008. largest ipo in history at that time. they also grew earnings in 2009 and 2010.

what i aconsistent group of companies. remember this was during the worst economy since the depression. that means there's only so bad -- so many bad things can really get these stocks down in a slowdown. they're good companies. by contrast sofi was founded in 2011. affirm and upstart in 2012. robinhood 2013. paypal's older but it was buried with e bay during the financial crisis. square was founded in 2009. we don't know how well their models work in a rap idly deteriorating economy. and based on the way the stocks are moving nobody seems too eager to find out. there's one thing that separates visa and mastercard from the fintechings. neither of them has credit risk. they run payment networks. they don't lend people money. but sofi try to off-load their loans by turning them into securities and selling them off but that doesn't work when the market freezes up. which often happens when rates are moving too quickly in one direction. block has credit risk too as they make loans to their small business customers.

overall, though, money managers know the economy's getting worse and they don't want to stick around to find out what the fintechs will do. here's the bottom line. visa and mastercard hit new highs earlier this month because they're consistent operators with healthy earnings growth and it's very easy to understand what happens to them in a recession. because both companies have been through so many. the newer fintechs, though, are mostly unprofitable question marks, which is why their stocks are still a long, long, long way from their old highs. and i don't see them getting back to those old highs anytime soon. wally in falcon nic. wally. >> caller: hey, jim. boo-yah. >> boo-yah, my trend. what's going on? >> caller: well, first of all, thank you for taking my call. >> of course. what's going on? let's go to work. >> caller: i have been a fan of yours for many years and i appreciate the information you give us each night. >> that's what i'm trying to do. thank you. >> caller: a substantial investment in bank of america,

and i believe it's still in your portfolio. it's down more than 6% from a high of 29.43 this month. along with all the other stocks. it closed today up 28 cents. my question to you is should i buy more at this price, sell or hold? >> okay. it's a very difficult situation because the bank is so cheap. i can't tell you to sell it by any means. can i tell you to buy more? no. because the bank stocks are really awful. so my suggestion, thank you for the kind words, you've got to hold that one. just hold bank of america. and let's go to bob in florida. bob. >> caller: hey, professor chill, how are you doing today? >> i'm doing quite well. thank you. what's happening? >> caller: awesome. glad to hear it. i had a question on this ticker. especially with cryptocurrency derivatives and futures coming to market sooner than later what do you think of cme's stock right here? >> cme?

that is a terrific way to play it without a lot of risk. i really think it's great. it's undervalued. people don't talk about it much. i think it's got a good yield. i don't understand why people don't talk more about that. that is just a very good company. and thank you for bringing it to our viewers' attention. the newer cohort of fintechs are full of question marks but the same can't be said of visa or mastercard which are long-term stalwarts that have been hitting 52-week highs this month. much more "mad money" including my look at train technologies. could this be a major benefit for a company like train? i'm talking to the ceo. then is the fed burning down the village just to save it? i'm hiemt highlighting a piece of research i saw today that i think could give us a real sense of what lies ahead for the fed. you do not want to miss it. and of course all your calls rapid-fire in tonight's edition of the "lightning round." so stay with cramer. - today, 9 million kids in america are considered food insecure, meaning there may not be a lot of dinner at the dinner table. help change a kid's life. support your local food bank.

the more you know.

with all the hammering about interest rates and the macro environment sometimes i like to step back and focus on individual companies with strong secular growth stories. the ones that can work even in a slowdown and the ones that are not going to slowdown because rates are higher, companies like train technologies. it's a major player in the heating ventilation and air-conditioning space. big refrigerated trailer business on the side. despite worries about rising interest rates hurting their business the company keeps putting up really terrific numbers including last month where they also raised their full-year forecast. so how does train do it? in part it's because they make energy-efficient climate control systems that allow corporate customers to lower their carbon footprint and their electric bill. it's a good investment no matter what, especially with some of the climate-related goodies in a

so-called inflation reduction act, although we'd probably do pretty well without it. the stock's up more than 21% for the year. can it keep climbing? let's dig deeper with dave ragnerri, chairman and ceo of train technologies to learn mor about the company. >> thanks for having me back. i'm glad to be back on your show. >> a lot of people seem to almost want to worry about those who don't believe in climate change and they don't come out and say it and they say earnings per share. you talk about decarbonization as being first good for the world but also good for the bottom line for shareholders. you're not afraid to alienate those who don't believe? >> no, jim. look, first of all, if you think about heating and cooling ever buildings, it represents about 15% of all greenhouse gas. and at the end if you think about food waste it represents another 10%. so the industry that we play in has 25% of greenhouse gas. and we've developed solutions that have fantastic paybacks. so i always say it's green for

green. so we have solutions that really make the world a better place from a decarbonization standpoint. we have what we call a thermal management system where it's able to -- if you think about a conventional building and how you used to heat and cool, you have a heating side you call that a boiler. you have a cooling side we'd call that a chiller. they worked independently. we combined them into one system. and when you combine them into one system and it works simultaneous for -- simultaneous heating and cooling, it's three to four times more efficient than the conventional way of thinking. thebacks on these systems in many cases, it depends on what you're replacing, they could be sub three years. so it is green for the environment but it also has a very nice payback for the customer. >> when i look at we mentioned the government programs this elementary and secondary school emergency relief, they're mandated. you must be getting your fair share of that. >> yes. the funding in the united states, it's been with us for

about two years, has another two years to go, so it's about halfway through. we've always been strong in the education vertical and being able to call directly on school superintendents. i believe year to date through the second quarter our revenue is up close to 30% in that vertical. and if you look at it on a two-year stack our revenue is up close to 60%. >> i know. and a lot of times people misunderstand. you have to look at a lot of things into your stack with you. the residential two-year stack. the therma -- because if you don't it looks like you're having a down year. but that's not fair. >> it's so true. especially when you look at order rates. our backlog at the end of the second quarter was close to $7 billion. that's two to three times -- 2 1/2 times more -- >> explain how much therefore of the year's already made. >> the backlog will burn through the year. but it really is about absolute numbers. and if you look at our order rates you can see that our order

rate -- i'll give you an example. our commercial hvac business in the second quarter, we were up high teens in the americas. we were up high, high teens in europe. we were up over 40% in china -- or in asia. and our book to bill in the total business was 101%. that gives you an example of the magnitude of the numbers we're talking about. >> i want to talk about thermoking. it's been a football business. a lot of different outfits. it's finally found the right home. that's another one where there was a big jump in truck and then comes down. but if you smooth it out it can be a very consistent business. >> it's a great business. i had the opportunity to run that business for about four years of my career, so i know it very well. it's a great dealer network we have. we have so much innovation that's going on in that business. that's another business where it's going to be disruptive technology that we're going to deploy. it's the electrification of our units. and traditionally they have diesel engines in them.

we're moving to an all-electric system. it's exciting. the way we're able to -- i was over in galway where we have a big manufacturing location in ireland and the way the engineers now look at it they'ring looing as the truck goes down the road where is their power that i could harness. and you think about breaking. and we have some great technology we're able to retake the power that would be lost during braking and recharge our battery. very excited about where we're going there. it's a fantastic business and we love it as part of our portfolio. >> are there younger people who understand and can therefore -- so many younger people want to do something with the environment. maybe the smartest thing you can do is get an engineering degree and work for trane. >> well, we're always looking for great talent. so if you're interested in applying -- well, you know, jim, it's our purpose. our purpose is to challenge what's possible and a sustainable world. i want all 40,000 of our

employees to get out of bed every day and knee they're going to make this world better for the next generations. and that's our mindset. if you look at the solutions we've been able to develop in the last three years, the last five yaerpz, it's really incredible what we've been able to do. >> look, i want to congratulate you. and again, these numbers, i want people to understand, you have to look at what's known as a stack. you can't just look at year over year. you might think residential's not doing that good, whatever. all nonsense. it's a really consistent ramp. and the ramp is i am why proving getting faster. dave regnerry is chairman and ceo of trane technologies, tt. coming up cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit. it's a fast-fire "lightning round." next.

since my citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise]

before we get to the "lightning round," there's something really exciting that i want to share with you. the reason it's so special is because it's just for you, our "mad money" viewers. now, look, i know you always hear me talk about the community that is the cnbc investing club. for just a few days more i'm going to share a little taste of the work that i do with jeff marks during the day and it's going to be a bargain for you. today in our online morning meeting, for instance, that's at 10:20 a.m., and it's exclusively for club members, the market was drifting to what we said would be a successful retest. so what did we do? we said it was time to buy. we bought three names we really like, a tech, a household product company and an injured. we read the tape action real-time, got it right, told to you do it. ahead of us, of course. now, i think this stuff is so pertinent to your daily life, especially if you're watching this show, that i think you've got to be educated to it. you've got to be a better

investor and this is what happens if you join the club. i'm going to do something very simple. i'm just going to say -- this is only for a couple more days. grab your phone. open your camera. point it to the qr code or go to cnbc.com/jimoffer. and now it is time. time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money." play until you hear this sound and then the "lightning round" is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? time for the "lightning round" on cramer's "mad money." let's start with william in california. william. >> caller: hey, jim. how are you today? >> william, i am doing well. i came out hot today. what's going on? >> caller: i need some help with my stock. astronics. >> astronices is in aerospace. i think the boeing numbers have to come down because people are worried about airlines now. so after that it's time to do some buying but not yet. i would hold on to astronics.

let's go to louis in texas. louis. >> caller: hello, mr. cramer. >> louis, what's up? >> caller: i have verizon stock that i've held for many years, and now for several years it's stayed in the red. >> you know why? because it hasn't been that well run. i know t-mobile's good. but t-mobile's had the run. that's in part because these guys aren't good enough. and i think that it's time to start thinking about -- i don't know. i mean, if i were on the board of directors, let me just say -- let's say this. i would have to do some hard think about what's going on. bjorn in washington. bjorn! >> caller: boo-yah, jim. go vikings. hats off to your birds. >> thank you. i appreciate that. what's up? >> caller: i'm thinking about arm. does it have legs? >> you buy some arm now and some below 50. i think rene haas is terrific. i do think the tech rally is going to reignite and that's a

very good stock to own. i like the fact they're partners with nvidia. let's go to kyle in florida. kyle. >> caller: boo-yah, jimmy c. long time first time, thanks for taking my call. >> i'm glad you called. what's going on? >> caller: looking at a biotech company down big off earnings misses and a recent review but it's come back multiple times from this level and lower. do you have any bullish feelings toward novavax? >> none whatsoever. let's go to dan in arizona. dan. >> caller: hey, jim, i've been working on expanding my knowledge to become a smarter investor and among my resources are cnbc and your show. so thanks for having me on. >> thank you. >> caller: my question, ge health care, the fundamentals -- >> it's finally happening. the sellers have wised up. maybe they joined the club. the knucklehead sellers who have no idea how good this company is. just check it out in japan, you have to have so many mris to get these anti-alzheimer's drugs. it's all going to be right to the bottom line of ge healthcare. the stock is a buy. it's coming back. it looks like it's headed to 75.

nurnt hunter in florida. hunter. >> caller: boo-yah, jimmy chill. >> oh, how are you? >> caller: very well, sir. yourself. >> i'm good, thank you. >> caller: a 12-month forecast for marvell. should i add to it sell it or -- >> i think matt murphy is doing a terrific job. i think they've got a tremendous product. they bought this optical product. it is killer. matt is a tough competitor. and the answer is -- >> buy buy buy! >> caller: now we're going to jonathan in pennsylvania. jonathan. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. >> go birds. >> caller: i'm part of your investing club. i love your self-deprecating humor. >> i'm a masochist. what can i say? i've been since i was 1 years old and they left me in the playpen. >> caller: me too. after an eagles win you go home eat a hoogie and drink some wooter. >> i have a soft pretzel on valentine's day and watch the

payment. and murry christmas to you. >> caller: there you go. thanks for the laugh. hey, you've had the glox o'smith kline ceo on your sew who's very impressive. >> i'm telling you they've done so many right things in vaccines since she was on last. i applaud her. we're going to get cut off. and that ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the "lightning round." >> announcer: coming up, is low unemployment not all it's cracked up to be? americans are working but the deck ma deck may still be stacked. more next. (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does.

what can you do with spy? ♪ the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines.

the house of pain. >> remember, the fed's got a dual mandate. when business is bad and unemployment's high they cut rates to stimulate the economy. when business is strong jobs are plentiful and inflation's persistent the fed has to raise interest rates slamming the brakes on the whole she bang. jay powell's hiked rates so relentlessly, but what if there's more subtle involved than just steering the economy

between the scylla of high unemployment and the charybdis of high inflation. as the fed keeps raising rates even if there's damage wrought underneath the economy that could have severe consequences for people. matthew boss the excellent analyst from jpmorgan laid out a scenario i found quite disturbing. he talks about mounting headwinds versus the more terrific precovid period of 2019. he first points out that unemployment has risen to an 18-month high of 3.8%. it's now higher than the average jobless rate in 2019. now, it is still insanely low by historical standards. so the fed has a lot of leeway to keep tightening and i think it will keep using it. but what if you look deeper? the personal savings rate is now more than 500 basis points below where it was in 2019. boss notes the consumer wallet outflows for the big five essential spending buckets, food, housing, utilities, gas, and health care now account for 64.6% of total expenditures. up 90 basis points from 2019.

or to look at it another way, central expenditures collectively 17% versus 2019. as a result of the 43-year peak in inflation. meanwhile credit card rates are now 20.7% versus 15.1% back then. mortgage rates are 7.2% ver rer 3.9% in 2019. plus after multiyear moratorium on student loan repayments those are suddenly about to come back. and they take even more away from the average person's household budget. now, these numbers show a marked deterioration in purchasing power for the vast majority of our population. this is happening despite the lack of massive layoffs or mass bankruptcies. of course boss is a retail analyst. he's simply explaining why he expects consumers to trade down more aggressively, something that could benefit off-price chains like tjx, which we own big for the charitable trust. but when i look at his work i worry the fed may not see these issues that are hurting everybody except the rich. sure you could argue the real culprit is inflation. we're spending more on this stuff because the cost of living is skyrocketing. true. which means the fed needs to

keep raising rates until inflation is dead. true. but you can also argue that the fed may have already won and doesn't realize it yet. especially when you consider the dramatic rise in long-term interest rates that's really hurt anyone that wants to borrow money. when i read these figures i shudder. what if the fed's looking at unemployment and unemployment only and not looking at the gigantic increase to cost of living that's taking up a much larger part of the average person's budget? what if we have an economy where spending only collapses while the fed's still raising rates because the unemployment rate remains below 4%? now, see, i fear at these rates the fed may actually be burning down the village in order to save it. you know i have tremendous respect for mr. powell and think he's done a fantastic job. maybe we can say that three months from now this will all be so oscar that the fed won't have to do anything more but let's say one more tightening. especially as long-term treasury yields continue to soar, which seems pretty likely to me. i suspect this story's too big for them to miss. but man, i sure hope the fed sits down and reads the matt boss piece.

it might make them a little less strident, particularly some of these popovs who are really starting to bug me on the federal reserve. even with low unemployment the diminishing spending power of the average consumer may be enough for the fed to win its war on inflation very soon without doing much else. toto make it happen. i like shutdown countdown. congress scrambling for a last- ditch deal to keep the government open. the lights go out on the ddd rental business that changed everything. netflix cofounder mark randolph will join us for a must-see conversation. nike has done something it has not done in two years, and the stock is moving. apple facing a big headache over the apple i 15. what is behind the frenzy for gold bars at costco. and now the