Skip to main content

tv   Street Signs  CNBC  September 29, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EDT

4:00 am
--i get a peaceful sleep. i don't know if they do. ♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines. european stocks rally in the final session after a tough september and wall street has the worst month of the year. bill ackman tells cnbc do not be surprised if yields keep rising. >> i would not be surprised if 30-year rates go through the
4:01 am
five barrier. uk gdp revised higher for the first and second quarters with the country's stats office boosting the first and second quarter stronger for germany and france. and the senate tries to fast track short-term spending plans before the potential government shutdown on sunday. house speaker kevin mccarthy tells cnbc there's still time. >> the fund raising trail and let's get together and we have been able to do it before when we sat down. we can solve this problem. this is an actual opportunity to put the country on a better path. and sportswear plays get a boost as u.s. giant nike tops first quarter profit forecasts with higher prices offsetting cost pressures.
4:02 am
tgif. let's get a check of how markets are trading. there is a lot of green behind me. bit of a surprise given how difficult the trading conditions have been for the month of september. the stoxx 600 was down 2% for the month and today we're up up .90%. we are recovering half of the losses for september. the investment community is focused on three major topics. we will talk more about them on "street signs." we see the march higher in yields. we see that in the u.s. and european and gilt market. the u.s. shutdown over the weekend with the house and senate within the u.s. can agree on some form of a bill to get through the next couple months. a package to avert a shutdown. we are keeping a close look at oil prices as brent is moving higher which is getting close to $100.
4:03 am
all of that is emphasized bry te markets. one thing to remember is china is out for the next week. we have come in time after time with mainland china closed for the next week. the news there will die down a bit. today, stoxx 600 is up .90%. in terms of indexes, every one of the boards is in the green. the italian index and spanish up .60%. in germany, up .60% as well. we had the inflation numbers come in yesterday lower than expected falling to a two-year low of 4.3%. that is something keeping in mind. 11:00 a.m. in europe, we get the inflation figures. something to watch out for at the end of "street signs."
4:04 am
cac 40 support .80%. luxury stocks have been down in recent weeks. ftse 100 is up .50%. we had surprisingly good upward revisions with the gdp in the first and second quarter showing the economy has grown faster than expectations contrary to what we estimated. good news, i guess f, from the macroeconomics standpoint. the ftse 100 has been the performer for september. i'll get to that shortly. today, in terms of leadership sectors, this is what we have. luxury leading at the top there. technology is just behind on the back of the positive price action out of the u.s. real estate putting in a good session today. europe up 1.5%. interesting given the move we had in bond yields. in terms of the worst performance in europe, we have a couple trading in the red.
4:05 am
insurance is down .60% and oil and gas down .30%. it is the last trading day of the month. it is almost october. i don't know how that happened. take bing a look back at the mo. not a pretty month. look at the dax in germany the last couple weeks. down 3.3% for the month of september. of course, a lot of industrials leading the declines on the back of the weakness we have been getting on the activity data front. thatting is -- that is something to watch out for. cac 40 is down 2% for the month. julianna and i have spent the last couple weeks reviewing what is happening in the luxury space. downgrades coming through with the weakness in china. the ftse 100, we have up 2.8% for the month. this will be a surprise for everyone because the pound has traded weaker. this is an export oriented index
4:06 am
and commodities are doing well. as for u.s. markets month to date. this is the picture. dow down 3% for the month. 1,000 points in terms of absolute level. s&p down 4.6%. nasdaq, of course, down 6% as well. we have seen a month to forget, i would say, for all of the indices. especially if you were long. a big awakening for the tech index as yields are moving higher and higher. we heard from blackrock's fixed income chief at delivering alpha summit. he said the fed could stop raising interest rates, but probably won't. investors should expect one more hike this year. he said there are plenty of opportunities, too. >> this is an extraordinary period of time. you have an immense amount of
4:07 am
funds in money market funds and immense supply in the market. what you think of the disposition of putting money to work when you have a fed telling you they like to do more and make sure they bolt down inflation. how much duration risk do you want to take today out of the curve when term premium is too flat today and you don't have enough to go out the yield curve. you have to make the decision of how you get income for clients in fixed income and dull your drawdown when you have a fed that wants to keep moving. bull markets are more fun, but environments like this and how you generate positive return is a challenge. >> this is quite a busy event. oak tree's incoming ceo told the audience things look too good right now warning there is no such thing as a free lunch and markets see trouble ahead.
4:08 am
>> i do expect the lows. you will see elevated stress and default levels. with the legal protections in the documents in the last ten years, i think you will see quite unexpected outcomes. lender on lender violence. the ability for opportunistic lenders to come in over the top over what was considered a priority loan. there are imbedded risks that will unfold in the next year or two with the stress in the economy and markets with elevated rates for longer periods. it isn't a free lunch. i think i'm concerned right now in the market that everything looks quite healthy and quite good. it feels like a head fake to me and the economy and markets could actually experience trouble going forward. >> lots going on in markets. i'm happy to say the ceo of the advisory partners is joining us.
4:09 am
before we get into the views on the markets and where things may be headed from here with the look back at september as a challenging one for stock markets, i want to ask if you could give us an overview of what your firm actually does. i think it is interesting for our audience to understand what your clients are doing. from what i understand, the bulk of your money you are advising is coming from the middle east. this is a region that has been growing dramatically in the last couple years. we are seeing, you know, huge wave of commodities and recycling coming out of the region. what are your clients doing with the influx of money? >> a pleasure to be here, joumanna. thank you very much for having me. cordoba is an investment company in new york. we advise for families and offices across the world as well as institutions with the
4:10 am
particular footprint in the middle east. our approach is predicated on fiduciary independence and focus on costcost compression. we vadvise to make our clients money. we rather try to preserve and grow their wealth. we look to augment our investing on the liquid side with differentiated private deals and investment. >> thank you for giving us an overview. i would say what does that mean in terms of putting it to practice this year? one of the big themes for the market is the hype around artificial intelligence. even though the beginning of the year people were lukewarm on tech stocks, over the last couple months, that is the theme for the investment community.
4:11 am
are arab funds and institutions getting involved in that space as well? >> 100%. we started the year believing that the economy would be more resilient than the market was pricing. we were contrarian. we entered overweight growth and tech and part of the reason was due to the pro cyclical fiscal policy by the u.s. government. they with respeere spending a l. the big tech companies were poised to benefit from that. you know, this year, with respect to argue investors and arab investors from the region, there's been a huge swing trade f if you will, that's happened in the last year and a half to recycle profits into something low. the recent energy inflation or boom has moderated sovereign wealth funds to engage in a new
4:12 am
dealmaking for investing. one which is more sophisticated and targeted and focused on disruptive growth sectors, but in tech and renewables and hospitality. joumanna, earlier this year, aramco reported $161 billion profit. this is the largest profit recorded by an oil and gas company or company in general. this is fueled by soaring energy prices. this money has been redirected, so most of the profit has been located to the sovereign wealth funds and gone into sectors such as tech and growth equity which has been beaten down. >> rami, good morning. julianna here. we have seen a run-up in energy
4:13 am
prices in last few months, but this is something the u.s. government is keen to attest as we head into election season. how are your clients thinking about the energy outlook and energy prices given the expected pressure that the u.s. government and biden administration is hoping to put on energy prices? >> that's a great question. the move in oil prices is especially meaningful given the strength of the u.s. dollar. when the u.s. dollar is strong, prices don't rally as they have. this surge happened primarily due to crude stocks falling at this key storage hub in oklahoma and it really puts pressure on it. we are aware that this move may be less fundamental and more
4:14 am
driven. the futures market has an a lot of embedded leverage. this means the speculators are playing a role in this surge in prices. that being said, presidents never in an election year with oil prices this high. i imagine biden will go to great lengths to pull out all of the stops whether it is pressure on opec members with saudi arabia and kuwait and uae and encourage domestic producers to produce more or allowing russia and iran and venezuela to produce more and looking the other way. i agree with you on that point. >> rami, let me ask how your clients are feeling about the ipo market. there are a lot of questions if the a.r.m. ipo will, in fact, reopen the ipo market in tech or more broadly and the investment
4:15 am
community from the arab world has played a major role in investment in the ipos in the past. what is the appetite like among your client base? >> i think a lot of people know there's a lot of opportunity in the market. a.r.m.'s ipo was very successful. given the market context for the rates and nobody can argue it wasn't successful. it rallied 20% on the first day of trading and it went back down and now it has momentum behind it. it has been a successful offering. that being said, the markets are still frothy. why would you invest in an area where money isn't cheap? it is leaving equity on the table. that being said, in the region, their cost of capital is lower than it is in other developed markets because of the resurgence of energy prices
4:16 am
which means they are willing to be patient. when you have surplus liquidity, you can look out interms of the duration. i think that this a.r.m. ipo is the beginning of green shoots within the ipo market. i think next year should be a better year for listings. >> so interesting what you have to say. particularly with respect to the low cost of capital. rami, wonderful to chat to you. we will chat to you in the next couple months to see how things pan out. the ceo of advisory partners joining us. moving on to the european banking sector. commerzbank is expecting a payout ratio above 50% between 2025 and 2027. the german lender cut the work force as part of the overhaul to cut costs. the stock support more than 10%
4:17 am
today. this is the news that investors were hoping for, julianna. >> incredible reaction. 10% higher. not every day you see that. when we come back, we will talk politics as the spanish leader feijoo will have another chance to get parliament to vote for him today. we'll break it down next. you deserve better than that. i'm hungry, i'm in a hurry, i don't have time to make anything healthy. you could if you had a blendjet. blendjet? it's the portable blender
4:18 am
that makes the healthy choice the most convenient choice. i don't know. it seems like a hassle. hahaha! wrong. just pour in some milk, add some frozen fruit, and bam! you've got a nutritious and delicious smoothie. mmm! that is good. you're welcome, sad office guy. get yours today at blendjet.com are we in in an ad? we sure are. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.
4:19 am
4:20 am
welcome back to "street signs." well, we have spent the better part of the week looking at what is happening with fixed income and yields and for most of the days this week, the trajectory has been upwards. something strange is happening. we are seeing a huge rally the other way. 10-year bund this germany is down 11 basis points today. huge rally. we have italian bond yields 15 basis points. really breaking with the trend. julianna, this is on the back of the surprisingly disinflationary
4:21 am
numbers within the eurozone. we had the surprising numbers yesterday to the down side. we had french lower than expected. spain was higher. we will get the eurozone print at 10:00 a.m. today. it tells you the period of high inflation numbers is coming to an end in europe and with the ecb rate hike a couple of weeks ago believes we can sustain the higher rates. >> this is still note able with the uk economy growing in the second quarter putting it 1.8% larger before the pandemic. that was a substantial revision of of estimates. jeremy hunt says this information proves the doubters wrong.
4:22 am
spain's popular party leader feijoo failed in parliament in the first chance to become prime minister and form a government. the right-wing leader has a second chance today for a simple majority vote. we have javier diaz with us now. as i said, feijoo lost the first vote to become prime minister. he will have a second vote with a simple majority needed. any chance he secures the votes? >> the chances are slim. you never know. it is happening in the past. some can make a mistake or someone cross party lines in favor of mr. fiejoo. chances are he will fail the vote and the king will have to consult with the party leaders
4:23 am
and probably he will nominate the socialist party leader as the next candidate which is pedro sanchez. >> let's talk about sanchez if feijoo fails. the success of the attempt for the premiership hinges on the support of the separatists? >> they want general amnesty in the independence declaration. in 2020 -- sorry, 2017. they want a referendum which is ex-ccluded by the spanish constitution. the first can be where you stretch things a little bit.
4:24 am
the judiciary would be upset. we had a demonstration in madrid yesterday. the popular party would play tough. there will be -- the amnesty will be contested in the streets and in the courts. the referendum that is almost impossible to stretch the s spanish constitution that much. >> javier, do you think this will lead to another round of elections? i know many analysts think we are headed in that direction. if that is the case, do you think the events of the last couple months would have swayed the electorate. feijoo had been lean together far right. how will this impact with another round of elections? >> it is as you say.
4:25 am
the general feeling is stalemate. a few thousand votes might make a difference and perhaps the balance is tilting a little bit in favor of the conservatives. they might win the extra with the four seats they need in order to have majority. it is really hard to tell. positions are also entrenched among many voters that i talk to. it is a toss up. >> how do you break through the stalemate? if the conservatives managed to squeeze out four votes, fine. they have absolute majority. if that doesn't happen, we have a replay in four months of what we see today. in which case, will sanchez be forced to cover more concessions to the separatist parties? >> the only other option is broad agreement with the
4:26 am
conservative party and socialists. agree on basic points. no matter who wins this election or who gets to be elected prime minister, parliament will be divided. passing legislation will be really hard and the country will be stalled. it will be very hard to make major reform to pass budgets. whoever is ruling will be hostage of the parties that don't want anything to do with spain. the only agenda is the independence referendum. that, of course, is excluded by the spanish constitution. it is a stalemate and uncertain times ahead for spain and the spanish economy. >> given the uncertainty you outlined, you are professor of economics, how should people think about the period in the coming months?
4:27 am
>> you know, in a sense, spain has been struggling with the very divided parliament with toxic parties. partnering up with the soc socisoci socialists for a long time now. we found out spain with function reasonably well without a government and that might be the case. you know, we might be able to move along under the iron umbrella of the eurozone and european union. that gives us a framework with the budget deficits. you know, unscertainty never helps. the question for spain is are we better or in worse shape than italy. you know, i think if you just look at the yields on ten-year
4:28 am
government securities, the market has a clear opinion about what is riskier. >> it is a bit like uk and germany. you have the rivalry going on with italy and spain. i want to come back to the political aspect of the discuss and if the potential referendum and i know you are a professor of economics, but the threat of potentially another referendum in catalonia. what does that do to the people's sentiment and business sentiment? >> we already saw most companies and major banks which left catalonia and moved their headquarters to somewhere else in spain. these companies are just not coming back. they don't want the uncertainty
4:29 am
and inevitable chaos and contraction that would follow a yes vote or the tension created by the discussion of whether it is legal to have a referendum and the response of the spanish state. will there be violence. it is really -- for us, the economy is a concern. without going through the emotional sentiment and without getting there, it is a shot in their foot. it is not helping their economy. the other competitors, have a li -- valencia and madrid, other investment is flowing there. catalonia will be left behind if this tension keeps going. conflict is really bad for growth. >> very interesting. good place to leave it. thank you for joining us on the show. fascinating to hear your
4:30 am
perspective. javier diaz. also coming up on the show, as beyonce and taylor swift sweep the globe of international tours, we will discuss the impact of the state t ofhe economy. we will discuss that next. we'll be right back. blendjet 2 gives you ice-crushing, big blender power on-the-go. so you can blend up a mouthwatering smoothie, protein shake, or latte wherever you are! recharge quickly with any usb port. best of all, it even cleans itself! just blend water with a drop of soap. what are you waiting for? order yours now from blendjet.com before they sell out again!
4:31 am
4:32 am
ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.
4:33 am
warm welcome back to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlineses sdpheadlineses. >> european stocks rally and bill ackman says don't be surprised if yields keep rising sdplrising. >> i would not be surprised if they move to the five barrier and the ten-year approach. and a.i. stocks post a mixed performance for the quarter. blackrock is calling for a bullish note at the delivering alpha summit in new york.
4:34 am
>> you take it over the next level and look at the labor issues today. that will excel accelerate the n business and you will see that in a profound way in the few years. nike soars with the profits. and commerzbank index is moving to the seven-week high. we are wrapping up the final trading day of september. green across the board for european equities. gains are broad based. swiss market is up .50%. cac 40 is up .80%.
4:35 am
the strong performance in france is due to luxury. a strong bid with lvmh up 3% this morning. we are seeing a strong bid for the sportswear giants. puma and adidas all performing well after nike reporting last night. it did miss on revenue, but margins beat expectations to get the shares going ands also drive gains in europe. we will discuss the earns in detail in a minute. something to look at with european equities. taking a look at the currency market the dollar trading on the back of the yen with sterling driving higher against the dollar. $122.35. we crossed above the 122 level. we have been trading below it for a few days. as for the u.s. futures, wall street is looking to open higher
4:36 am
this morning. yesterday, we saw stocks rebound. s&p closed 0.6% higher posting the strongest day in two weeks. a.i. was highlighted as one of the major global growth opportunities at the annual delivering alpha event in new york. blackrock says the technology will lead to profound efficiency gains. >> you take a.i. and take it to the next level and there are a series of economic studies that show 35% to 50% of the jobs will be augmented or replaced by a.i. now you think about this and this is what with inflation is looking like in two years. wage pressure is creating a lot of this with the focus on service level inflation. if you create and look at the labor issues today, that will accelerate the investment in a.i. software efficiencies within the business and you will see that in a profound way over
4:37 am
the next few years. >> and it is hard to know how big a.i. could be and investors need to balance that with the potential opportunities. >> i lived through a few bubbles. we like to describe the moments as super cycle thes. i -- cycles. internet san cloud computing and now a.i. it is impactful in our lives. you could also have over-hype and over-price. you have to get comfortable with simultaneous and competing truths. on the one hand, we overestimate in the short-term which leads to price inflation. the impact these things will have and then much like the internet in 19 98 with
4:38 am
over-pricing, we underestimated the impact it would have in the next decade. we have a fun friday segment for you. the tours of beyonce and taylor swift have brought on tourflation. food and tickets have soared making this more expensive than ever before. we have the managing director here to discuss it. julianna and i went to beyonce. she is queen bey. you know what is interesting about the industry is it was a couple of years ago that people said it's over. live concert and events. this part of the world is never going to come back to what it was. it feels we have come back not only in a strong fashion, but with a vengeance. >> thanks for having me. i really appreciate it. the pandemic was a dark time for
4:39 am
those of us in the industry and running ticket marketplace. it went from running high to basically zero. what we have seen since the pandemic is unbelievable demand. taylor swift and beyonce and the pop stars such as these women have completely dominated top sales all over the world. >> to put on the economics hat, we spent time looking at macroeconomics data and services inflation which has been sticky namely because people are willing to spend more on experiences. this is the experience people are willing to pay up for. what does that mean in terms of pricing and ticket sales? >> for our business, it has been really inn vecredible. tourism has been bigger than before. with the marketplace we run, 40% of sales are for people buying for events outside of their
4:40 am
country. also in the uk, it has been a 20% growth in international tourism. that is possiitive for the econy and tourism. >> are you seeing a slowdown in prices and sales? interest rates are high in many parts of the world and you can au argue economic conditions are weakening. >> i'm not an economist. we have seen a lot of people take discretionary income and focus on these areas. it is a moment of bucket list. the joy or feeling you get from the experiences are once in a lifetime. they are putting these at the premium. >> substituting other things they may have spent that income on. i don't know if you mentioned this yet. i know secondary selling is a huge part of the ticket world. it is the means by which many get access to tickets now. there are a lot of concerns
4:41 am
around safety and scams. we talked about it when we looked for the beyonce tickets a couple months ago. how do you safeguard against scams and re-selling is safe? >> the resale market has been around since live entertainment. the days of gladiators had people outside selling tickets. our brand in the united states, stubhub is ensuring people had an option to use the service that was safe and secure. we hold the don't pay sellers ur the event. we have 100 people in the company looking for fraud. trust is the most important thing for the business. it is important to us. >> it is not just scammers, or scalpers. these are vendor ws who sell in commercial quantities. what safety measure do you have in place to make sure that doesn't happen? it does happen because these
4:42 am
vendors eventually breakthrough? >> it is about fulfillment and the customers want to use the resale service get into the event. our service is about the operation and the delivery with the buyers and sellers and ensuring they have a good experience. we are regulated in the uk. it is a trust worthy service. >> can you give us insight into what is happening in the sports world and events are getting not attraction and attention? >> it is kansas city chiefs because of taylor swift. we have seen a spike of sales for the jets game in new york because we think people will show up. we had a huge messi effect in the united states. fascinating. miami was not the most popular team and as soon as they secured him, ticket sales went crazy. the rugby world cup is going on. we saw the 40 countries
4:43 am
purchased tickets with americans who with came over to visit. >> do you see it as a big growth opportunity especially with sports and saudi and the major names in the leagues? is that an area where you see good growth opportunity? are you seeing a pick up in ticket sales? >> we see good export from buyers in the middle east. they like to come to events all over the world. going back to the tourism effect. this is a global market. now our business provides a accessibility and optionality, it gives people a lot of options around the world. we sell in 190 markets all over the world. >> perhaps as a selfish american who came back from the u.s. and watched a few football games. >> american? >> american football. >> i want to make sure. >> exactly my next question. i know the games here have garnered a huge amount of attention. the nfl games played in the uk.
4:44 am
are they as popular as they seem? is there a scope to make it a longer lasting play here and potentially get a team permanently based on the demand for the games? >> i lived here in 2007 with the first game. it wasn't a lot of fanfare. it was exciting they had the game. min mainly americans coming over. the majority of buyers we are seeing now is british. the nfl has done a nice job of cracking the fan code here. they are in germany and in mexico. the game has exported well. >> this has been fascinating. wonderful to hear what is going on in your space and so much ticket sales are generated by female artists in the music world. that's promising. taylor swift and beyonce effect. chris miller from viagogo. nike shares are reaching higher pre-market after the company topped profits in the
4:45 am
quarterly forecast. the sportswear maker has an increase in the gross margin for the second quarter after six consecutive declines. this is how nike is impacting the other sportswear designers. puma up 6%. adidas is up 6% as well. there has been a really positive impact from nike results on to other sportswear brands as well with. interesting, julianna, i want to say we were talking about h&m with arabile. one of the ways they were shifting stock is introducing markdowns by cutting prices. nike has less markdowns. they have more pricing power in the environment. >> i guess scope for that margin inflection is the reason why the
4:46 am
companies are performing well. coming up on the show, we will bring you the latest on the potential for the u.s. government shutdown. we will have the latest next. my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month it takes less than 5 minutes for me to get all of my labels
4:47 am
and get beauty in the hands of women who are battling cancer so much quicker shipstation the #1 choice of online sellers go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free shipstation the #1 choice of online sellers make a splash with the ultimate pool party essential. blendjet gives you ice-crushing, big blender power on-the-go, so you can soak up the sun with a frosty beverage. enjoy 15+ blends before rapidly recharging via usb-c. and it even cleans itself with a drop of soap and water. stand out even when you're accidentally twinning with our kaleidoscope of colors. make this summer the coolest ever. order yours now from blendjet.com.
4:48 am
4:49 am
welcome back. a partial u.s. government shutdown is looking likely as the house and senate push forward with separate spending plans. a shutdown would furlough hundreds of thousands of workers and halt an array of services. u.s. real gdp grew 2.1% in the second quarter. initial weekly jobless claims rose by 204,000. we are looking out for more data with the fed inflation reading for august due. the u.s. 10-year treasury eased after a 16-year high. bill ackman says he sees yields moving higher. >> the view is inflation is
4:50 am
persistently high. >> i guess i control the door on the way in and out. our view is really that we're in a different world and the world changes gradually. you have a generation of people who are used to rates. on an historical basis, it is low. i would not be shocked to see 30-year rates through the five barrier and the 10-year approach approach five. >> we have steve maley with us. let's pick up with bill ackman and where he left off with treasury yields. 4.5% is a high in this cycle, but it is in line with the average. based on the work you have done, where do we go from here? >> the risk is we get an overshoot from here and bill was
4:51 am
talking about 5% level. we have technical level of 4.93 coming up. that is the next target. the overshoot to that is 5.30. that is a potential overshoot. the trading is more crowded. we have the data coming up today. that could start to turn things a little bit here. 4.33 on the down side would be the level for us where we see unwind of the crowded trade we are seeing with the treasury bond. >> that's the range you see. 4.33 to 4.93 at the moment for treasury? >> 4.93 to 5 puer% is the targe. 4.33 goes and we see the lower in yields. it is a crowded trade.
4:52 am
>> what with ould have to happe with the catalyst? >> we have to remember a lot of global headwinds the last few days. we had the u.s. shutdown looming which is a negative. we had the chienese markets whih are wobbly. evergrande is increasingly risky. we have the oil pushing higher. >> steve, that was my question. we were monitoring the price of oil. every day we come in and this is the day it gets to 100. what are your charts telling you? >> what is interesting is a couple of significant spikes back down lower in oil. they have been quickly recovered. the bulls are in charge. bears have had a go and tried to reverse the market lower and it hasn't happened. there is a risk we hit that $100 level. from there, you know, i think we
4:53 am
could see the markets are overstretched from the intermediate term. that could see some reversal from the $100 level. if we believe that the market is being pushed into the area, by the power that has been, you know, you could see a reverse of that. we could see a change of tone in saudi arabia and backing off. >> the charts will tell you we probably get to 100 and bounce off it. >> it is a psychological level and it is important. down side is 88. if we get there, you could see similar with the treasury yields. >> square that up for me against the price ak iction for me withe strength of the u.s. dollar. especially with the fed coming to the end of the hiking cycle.
4:54 am
i wonder how commodities can do or what the charts tell you that commodities can do in the environment where the dollar is still strong. >> stronger dollar, weaker commodities. that is the opposite. the dollar still points higher. dollar index can go 109 or 110 area. on the downside, the reversal is $104.50 if it can get there. the whole mantra is the fed high are for longer. you had many guests talking about that. the market is very much telling us they don't still believe it. the interest rate curve continues to say to us that the fed may or may not cut by the end of the year. hike by the end of the year. it looks like they will hike anyway although the market doesn't believe it. that is adding into the ongoing dollar strength we see come through.
4:55 am
>> we know from the stock market perspective, it is tech stocks which remained resilient. what are you seeing? >> the risk is to the downside from here. maybe as deep as below 1,400 . that is the risk unusuallily. overall, the charts don't look too negative. you know, going through the headwinds, a more hawkish fed and u.s. government shutdown and china issues with property and the oil price. i think stocks are doing pretty well. with the macro back drop of the headwinds along with the tech technicals, it looks okay. >> steve, thank you very much for joining us. steve miley, coo of tradeday. let's look at u.s. futures before we hand you over to the u.s. colleagues.
4:56 am
final day of trade for the month of september is looking to be off to a positive start. dow jones industrial average is looking to continue its rebound. 133 points of gains in store right now. the s&p and nasdaq also looking to open higher. >> i think we can look at the political side of things and if they decide or get through a bill to avoid a shutdown. that's going to be key for u.s. investors from here. a quick look at european markets. we are actually ending the day, month and quarter on a positive tone. it has been a negative month overall for the indices with the exception of the ftse 100 which is the surprise for september. >> interesting fun fact to end on. i would say it has something to do with the sterling weakness. we'll discuss more on monday. m lina"it for "street signs. i'juan tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.
4:57 am
you deserve better than that. i'm hungry, i'm in a hurry, i don't have time to make anything healthy. you could if you had a blendjet. blendjet? it's the portable blender that makes the healthy choice the most convenient choice. i don't know. it seems like a hassle. hahaha! wrong. just pour in some milk, add some frozen fruit, and bam! you've got a nutritious and delicious smoothie. mmm! that is good. you're welcome, sad office guy. get yours today at blendjet.com are we in in an ad? we sure are. ready to take your business to the next level? scale it with the commerce platform, made for entrepreneurs. shopify is specially designed to help you grow your business. with easy, customizable themes that let you build your brand.
4:58 am
marketing tools that get your products out there. yeah, way out there. shipping solutions that actually save you time. and that's just the beginning. from start ups to scale ups. online, in person and on the go. shopify, your all in one commerce platform.
4:59 am
5:00 am
it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc be global headquarters. here is the "five@5." investors trying to wrap up a september to forget. also lawmakers in d.c. deadlocked in the shutdown showdown as the federal government barrels toward that october 1st deadline. in detroit, three weeks in and the uaw is looking to expand the strike after its president addresses members later today. and ackman and reider and more speak to cnbc during the delivering fall summit. we will tell you where the

86 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on