it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc be global headquarters. here is the "five@5." investors trying to wrap up a september to forget. also lawmakers in d.c. deadlocked in the shutdown showdown as the federal government barrels toward that october 1st deadline. in detroit, three weeks in and the uaw is looking to expand the strike after its president addresses members later today. and ackman and reider and more speak to cnbc during the delivering fall summit. we will tell you where they are

telling investors not to put their money in the volatile times. later in the show, nvidia following into the regulatory microscope with the office raid. it is friday, september 29th, 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good morning. i'm frank holland. happy friday. let's start the day with the check on the u.s. stock futures. look here. we are in the green. dow would open up 100 points higher. the nasdaq is .50% higher. it is early. a big part of the dow move is the pre-market with nike popping on the mixed report. look at nike shares right now up 8%. it is important to note they are down 17% for the year to date.

more on that slide coming up in a moment. all this as the markets look to wrap up a rough month for stocks with the s&p and nasdaq on pace for their worst month of this year down 4.5% and 6%. dow down 3% as well. for the quarter, the averages here down across the board with the dow and s&p set to snap win streaks. the nasdaq on pace for the worst quarter since the second quarter of 2022. we are seeing a lot of action in the bond market. the 10-year treasury at 4.54. easing back from yesterday with the high of 4.67. the 2-year treasury is easing back a bit. still back above 5%. we will talk more about bond yields in a minute. we will also talk about energy. oil is up 10% this month and on pace for the longest win streak since may of 2022. look at the action here. up almost 10%.

up fractionally in the p pre-market. we have to look at currency with the dollar wrapping up a big month. up nearly 3% and on pace for the second month of gains in a row. you can see the action on the dollar. we will talk with the ceo of s.a.p. coming up on the show. let's talk about this with my next guest. ben emons is the senior portfolio manager at newedge wealth. >> good morning, frank. >> we have seen bond yields at 4.67. the market managed to churn higher yesterday with the small caps being the best performer. small caps are usually more interest rate sensitive. >> that is true, frank. the market said this is overstretched a bit. that's why we are down.

that is the reasonable move. that alleviates the market. that is what we are seeing this morning in terms of the markets the last week with the pressure easing off. this is a market that is focused on the recession and focused on downturn. with the high bond yields, people are focused on the economy. it will ultimately slowdown. as i mentioned before, if all yields go up to 5% or higher, i think it is a signal we will slowdown. >> i want to dig into that one, ben. this is from the note you put out yesterday. a lot of people are worried about the inverted yield kucurv. you are worried about it flat i t flattening. this makes the yield curve flat and you say that is the moment that the bond market signals

high uncertainty in the economy. this is an extreme scenario. a lot of movement in the bond market. what does it signal? >> you see it playing out. the ten-year is moving close to the two-year. it is less than 50 basis points t.points. it is about growth. if you get to the two-year and ten-year, something is off here. it could be a yield for 30 years, we don't know. that causes uncertainty. the two-year yield is different than the 30-year. the 30-year is about mortgages and two-year rate is about corporate financing. that is what the market

assesses. now you have the unscertainty i the market which could slowdown. >> the 30-year hit the high yesterday. we have the delivering alpha summit members who are in agreement on the long end of the curve. take a listen. >> we have the worst technical environment in our lifetime for supply of bonds versus buyer bonds. china is selling. russia with more selling. saudi arabia selling. we have an economy that is still strong and inflation at 3.5% or 4%. our view is you are not being paid enough to enter into the 30-year contract at a fixed price at 4.7 p% or whatever it is now. doesn't make sense where we think structural inflation is north of 3% for the long term.

>> you think about the real rates and you are buying a five-year note. if you assume inflation settles at 2.5% or 3%, you get a couple of basis points or more to lock these rates in. i think you can extend a little out to the curve. it is not a hedge. you think about portfolio allocation. for 30 years, rates came down and we are in a stable rate environment. if the inflation is higher, the back yield will get hit. we like being in the front to the belly of the curve. >> 30-year at 4.67. agree or disagree? >> i agree with rick. you are right. if you buy a 30-year bond at low year than the two-year bond, you take a lot of risk. if inflation stays higher and the next energy move that we see

keeps cpi elevated, then you don't get paid with the risk on the 30-year bond. everything has to move to the same level to get a better compensation for the risk in the future. >> doing a lot of bond talk today. you agree with rick. you don't like the long end of the curve. are you talking a two-y year? >> three months up to four years of maturity is the sweet spot of the yield curve. you have the ability with the higher yield. you have the yield which is stable. we have not seen much change there. i think there is a good play. >> looking for the three month at 5.5%. ben, great to see you. thank you very much. we turn attention to d.c. and capitol hill and developing story as we are less than two days away from the federal government shutdown with lawmakers still deadlocked in

ways to fund the government past october 1st. drew petrimoulx has more. >> reporter: good morning, frank. kevin mccarthy will bring a bill to the floor p bbefore the deadline. a stop gap bill introduced by the senate has a chance of passing in that chamber. it faces a road block if it were to reach the house and pose a risk for mccarthy's job. there has been talk about the efforts to oust mccarthy from the speakership. this increases the shutdown potential and pause payment for 4 million employees. the sticking points are spending levels and border security and aid to ukraine.

frank. >> drew, as kevin mccarthy isis moving is, did he speak to the prepon president? >> reporter: he said a number of lawmakers are on board and that would would be a bipartisan committee. >> drew, thank you very much. have a great weekend. we have more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word investors have to know today. first, a rare nike sales miss, but not slowing down investor enthusiasm for the stock this morning. and newly minted gamestop ceo ryan cohen is telling the work force on day one. later, the week long special holes on and today's pick is nuclear. a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." look at u.s. futures and the dow would open up 100 points higher. s&p up .30%. nasdaq up over .50%. let's look at europe with the trading day with joumanna

bercetche in the london ne newsroom. joumanna, good morning. that's right, frank. we figured it is the last day of the trading month and quarter, we will look back at how all of the indices have done the last couple months. let's start with asian indices. you see all of the indices are ending the month in negative territory. nikkei in jap dan down 2.3%. they did not transpire with the move from the policy. some chip makers and energy stocks came under selling pressure. hang seng is in focus not over the month of september, but the quarter as well. let's flip to the quarter to date chart. down 6% for the hang seng as investors got to grips of what was happening with the chinese economy and the huge pullback in the real estate sector. that is hanging over that index. on the flip side, the best

performing stock is an oil expiration company. that is the picture overall for the quarter. as for european markets, this is the picture. the only spot of green we got for the month of september is the ftse 100 over in the uk up 3.1%. again, that shouldn't be a surprise given how much the pound has dropped and given the concentration of commodities within the ftse 100. we did see a good performance from the energy companies and miners for the month of september. the rest of the indices are not pretty. cac 40 is down 1.8%. luxury is a sticking point within the french index. dax in germany down 3% for the month as well. some industrials coming under selling pressure. in terms of quarterly performance, this is what the markets look like. it is the reverse of what we had for the month of september. that is interesting. on a three-month horizon is out

performing on the european names. some of the best performing stocks for the quarter is rolls-royce from the uk. this is on the back of the sales of jet engine and defense. defense is the major theme with the war going on. leonardo in the italian index is up 33%. on the flip side in europe, we have been watching the payment service company down 60% on the quarter as well. a bit of a mixed bag. i would say the macro going forward is what is dominating, frank. >> joumanna, thank you. joumanna bercetche live in the london newsroom. time for the check of the top corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana. >> frank, good morning. three weeks into the walkouts and striking auto workers are prepared to expand more. at 10:00 a.m. today, uaw president shawn fain is set to

address members on the facebook live and just like last week where he doesn't see enough progress, he will call for expanded strikes at 12:00 p.m. eastern time. union officials made new propositions to stellantis yesterday and in active talks with ford and gm. and nike reporting the latest quarterly results after the close, the company falling short of wall street sales estimates for the first time in two years, but beating on earnings and margins. nike maintaining the outlook revenue growth in mixed single digits. after a wild ride for the stock yesterday, gamestop is being watched after the email sent to corporate employees and store leaders where ryan cohen

says frugality is needed. his firm remains the largest shareholder at north of 12%. frank. >> another twist for this meme stock. it never ends. silvana, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," we have a first on cnbc interview with christian kline and will talk about the move into the a.i. company. we'll have more when we return. stay with us.

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let there be change. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." s.a.p. announcing the launch of the generative a.i. jewel with the cloud enterprise portfolio. jewel is serving to human resources and finance and customer experience building on the 26,000 s.a.p. cloud customers with access to the business a.i. offering. joining me on the first on cnbc un interview is christian kline.

good morning. great to have you here. >> good morning, frank. thanks for having me. >> let's talk about jewel. how does the generative a.i. plan to monetize your service? >> frank, you are starting the show well. our vision is help the world get one better and improve people's lives. generative a.i. has an impact on business. think about it. there are 300 million end users working day in and day out with s.a.p. software. we are touching t80% of the trans transactions. we are sitting between technology and business. a.i. is relevant with infusing intelligence and automation into the world's businesses. >> s.a.p. is a broad category

with supply chains and finance to human resources. you have a big lead overcome pet to -- over competitors. how will this lead to a generation of more revenue? >> frank, you said it. we are touching every business. the end-to-end value chains of our customers. when with you interact with our jewel co- pilot, you can ask any question. you get answers. you can solve any kind of completion financial question. you can automate and you can redefine how end users work with the software. of course, with value comes a great business opportunity for s.a.p. we launched this in the upcoming weeks and customers can consume generative a.i. out of the box with our software. >> i want to be clear.

premium offering. the monthly subscription. >> exactly. >> as we enter q4, you are a big tech company in europe and majority of the customers in the u.s. what are customers telling you with the demand for a.i. services and their willingness to pay up for the services and what has been an uncertain economic environment? >> frank, when i watched the news this morning on cnbc, it is all about macro. it is all about inflationary pressure and decarbonization. this is what our software asks. if you use generative a.i. in the business where it met us most, to drive from productivity and decarbonize, this is what companies need these days. this is why we are extremely optimistic with the demand for s.a.p. business a.i.

>> amazon made news a few days ago investing in anthropic. you invested as well. give us a sense where we are with the a.i. arms race? are you planning to invest in more companies or acquiring a company to bring capabilities ins inhouse? >> all of these products are devel relevant for s.a.p. and other partners. they need a foundational data model to provide smart answers to the end users. this is what s.a.p. is developing. we are building the largest foundation data model which expands across the company. with the partnership with the large language model, we are building the most powerful a.i. stack in the industry. we are partnering and building

the most powerful phfoundationa model. >> let me ask this question. if companies are investing in the same startups, how do you get an edge over the other companies? it seems like you are all buying into the same companies and buying the same abilities. >> you are buying into the large language model. what differ was with s.a.p. and why these partners are eager to partner with us asks a question to jewel and not every end user is allowed to see every data in the company. you need data privacy. guess which company does that for customers out there? this is where customers rely on s.a.p. you need data and access to sensitive data. we have access to data from over 400,000 customers. this is a treasure. this is what generative a.i. needs. this is why these partnerships are relevant and while the large

language models are foundational. >> christian klein, always great to see you. earning coming up on october 18th. thank you for being here. >> see you soon, frank. as we head to break on "worldwide exchange," we have today's big consumer stat. it is 4 million. that's how many government workers would go without a paycheck if the government shuts down according to the congressional budget office. the 2018 and 2019 shutdown cost the economy about $11 billion. we will discuss the weekend's all but certain shutdown and what it means for investors and the fed when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us.

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and get your early access code to the play the call of duty modern warfare iii open beta. early access begins on october 6th. first on playstation. visit xfinity.com/rewards. it's 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area. there is more ahead on "worldwide exchange." more from what bill ackman says for the fed and the crystal ball with the pending shutdown. and we have the favorite stock pick are pickers with the ideas heading into year end. and apple is trying to keep its business of the billions of users which have yet to switch from huawei or samsung. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. we pick up on the stock futures on the final trading day of the month and quarter. futures are in the green. dow ticking a bit higher during the show. looking to open up 130 poinpoints- higher. nasdaq .50% higher right now. let's talk about the dow. it getting a bump from nike which fell short of the estimates for the first time in two years. it beat on earnings and gross ma margins. moving higher during the show. you see over the last three months, shares are down more than 14%. you see that big tick up after the earnings report which was mixed. investors like what they heard and saw. we are looking at the bond market with upside action.

easing off the highs from yesterday. the 10-year treasury is 4.54. yesterday, we saw it get as high as 4.68. 2-year treasury is above 5%. it is easing off from the action yesterday in the bond market. we want to talk oil. we begin with wti at $91.91. moving higher right now up .25%. brent crude at 95.48. natural gas suppis up .50%. now we move to the investors who are looking to make gains to around out 2023. we are speaking with some of the favorite stock pickers who are giving us their best ideas and we run them through the gauntlet. yesterday, james cakmak made the case for the name amazon.

today, i'm joined by gordon johnson. gordon, give us your pick and why you think this is the right time to invest in that name. >> frank, thanks for having me. we really like global uranium miner. the reason is simple. the uranium spot prices hit a 15-year high. think about this, frank. over the past year, uranium prices are up 44% in the past year. oil is up as well. you have natural coal prices down. why do we like this name and why are we super bullish? it is simple. you basically had a decade of basically uranium production facilities ramping down

capacity. what are we looking at now? we believe you are looking at a structural deficit of the likes we have never seen before. since then, it has gone up to 188 million pounds. that is against the back drop of the decommissions of nuclear plants for the past decade. the point is now that you have the u.s. and europe changing their minds and going back to nuclear and given manmade climate changes against officials, you have a resurgence of demand. >> you are getting in the weeds. demand is higher. we got you. i want to play devil's advocate. we are looking at shares up 35% in the last year. in the recent earnings, they flagged geopolitical risk around the world that might threaten

operations including in kazakhstan where 40% of uranium supply comes from. shouldn't investors be concerned about the fact that the supply of uranium might be challenged orharder to get to because of the political unrest? >> that's a great point, frank. that is the reason to buy cameco. think about this, one of the dynamics that is new is financial buyers in the mix. specifically physical uranium trust. they bought 30 million tons of uranium in 2021 and 2022. that is something we never had. unlike the open-ended funds in gld where buyers can sell out at anytime, the buyers are locked in. they are closed-end funds. the materials will not pull back into the commercial market. this is new.

we have never had this in the uranium market. supply is being gordon, i have . you are making a strong case. we have to move on. it is great to see you. we have to have you back on again. thank you. we hhave to get a check on the top corporate stories. we have silvana henao in red on this friday morning. >> frank, new comments from boeing ceo for the outlook on global travel demand. he said demand is more resilient than he ever would have imagined coming out of covid. adding order books and demand for proposals is as robust as he has ever seen in his career. when asked about recession fears, he says those concerns are not really popping up in the

aviation industry. call it the search deal that never was. bloomberg is reporting that microsoft discussed the bing search engine to apple in the deal that would have replaced google as the default option. eddy cue brokered the deal with alphabet and he met with talks that ultimately wept nowhere. and endeavor group holdings are among a group of outside investors exploring an investment in the pga tour. one which rival the deal with the saudibacked funds proposal. no comment from endeavor. in a statement to cnbc, the pga says it has received quote unsolicited interest from other investors.

>> silvana, thank you. now we turn attention to washington and where lawmakers have less than two days to pass bills to fund the government to avert a government shutdown. the funding expires on october 1st. the next test is today for cathkevin mccarthy. some say this will not pass in the senate. let's talk more about this and the impact the shutdown could have on the economy and markets with jeannette lowe from strategas. >> good morning, frank. >> what is the outlook for this one? it is a bit different. what is the biggest risk for investors? >> on average, we see the shutdowns last eight days.

you have the one in 2018 and 2019 which was the longest one which was 34 days. we think this will set up like the one in 2013. that occurred for 16 days. you had the debt ceiling that needed to be lifted that year which created a catalyst for the shutdown to end. this year, though, you are starting to see a smaller number of members of congress that are actually blocking funding. it is starting to anger some of the moderate members within the chamber. we thought this would last would weeks. we think the bias is toward it being shorter. we think this gets the shutdown come sunday morning. there may be a little more pressure to get a deal a little bit sooner. in terms of risk, i think the bigger thing is the longer the shutdown happens, then there is more risk to the fed and not being able to have access to economic data that would be suspended or not being able to be reported.

second, we are watching what will happen with moody's. we are worried that moody's might put the u.s. on credit watch and be up for a conkcontrd shutdown. it would be credit negative if the u.s. goes into a shutdown. >> big issues for investors to look out for here. you are not the only person looking at the potential impact to the fed. if a government shutdown lasts more than a few days. here is what bill ackman had to say during our delivering alpha conference yesterday. >> in relative short-term, we

have a government shutdown and we will have a data shutdown. all of the government agencies that put out data with that the federal reserve relies on to adjust interest rates and they lose access to the data. they have a dark period. >> you and ackman are seeing things similarly. the u.s. credit downgreade potential and the fed. what is the more serious? >> the fed is the bigger issue. the fed has the meeting in october and they need to know what the economic data has been. the fed is focused on inflation over of the past couple months. we have oil prices moving higher. i think that's the more immediate term. for the longer term, that's where the moody's piece comes in as more of a risk. also note this is a little bit different in terms of the shutdown. we have another headwinds

happening. we have higher oil prices and other things hitting the consumer like student loan payments and all that with the covid aid moving off and the fed inflation and the u.s. debt moving higher. those factors create a little more risk this time. again, we think that might give you bias to have a shorter shutdown. >> thank you very much for being here. we appreciate it. coming up on "worldwide exchange," we have the friday morning call sheet and why bank of america has had enough. we have more after this. stay with us. make a splash with the ultimate pool party essential. blendjet gives you ice-crushing, big blender power on-the-go,

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welcome back. time for the morning call sheet. we start with bank of america upgrading ab in-bev to a buy and increase the shares. the margins are at a inflection point to drive organic growth going forward. up 4% in the pre-market. and zions bank is constructive on the the sector. the best time to buy stocks is from the late cycle to early

cycle. it will fare better in the market. zions is one of the better ones on the s&p this yquarter. hsbc is initiating fedex with the buy term. they face headwinds to demand, but fed exhiex is better placed offset cost pressure. u.p.s. has challenges with the labor costs and pressure to win back volume after the union issues. shares up fractionally higher. time for the global briefing. we start with french regulators invading the market offices of nvidia. the wall street journal says authorities are investigating the graphic cards sectors and received approval from a judge for the raid.

shares up 1% in the pre-market. evergrande executive chairman is under investigation over suspected crimes after taken away by chinese police. evergrande shares were suspended in hong kong yesterday. they remain halted until further notice. sticking with china. the wall street journal reports that apple is meeting with regulators over beijing crackingdown on the loophole to allow western social media apps being downloaded. if apple does not prevail, it will no longer offer apps in the app store unless they are registered with the government. ahead on "worldwide exchange," the one word every investor needs to know today and the end of the dvd and shipping routes. we will have that and much more. stick with us.

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welcome back to "worldwide to address the uaw in the facebook live event to discuss expanding the strikes. and new ly minted gamestop ceo ryan cohen addressing emp employees. he says extreme frugality is required to ensure survival. a new law in california is the first to raise the minimum wage for fast food workers to $20 an hour in april of next year. the minimum wage for all other

workers $15.15. among the highest in the country. uber is losing the fight for the minimum wage fight in new york city. the stocks in the pre-market is up. netflix ends 25 years of mailing dvds. the end was near and this paved the way to streaming. i'll miss the red envelopes. looking to extend the gains of what has been a really dismal month for stocks. look at futures. moving higher. the dow would open up 130 points higher right now. joining me is jeff kilburg. jeff, great to see you. good morning. >> good morning, frank. how are you? >> what do you make of the pre-market after yesterday with yields topping out at 4.68?

we saw small caps go higher. the whole market in the green. expecting bond yields ease back a bit. >> i think that is the bond leadership we talked about all year in 2023. when you saw the ten-year yield come back, you saw buying in interest rates. we talk about the month of september. as dismal as it has been, how great was january? january was above 6%. i think this year we see exaggeration. we are still having a decent year, frank. >> rounding out the third quarter with the a.i. hype train. we see reversals. looking at the charts. nvidia down 12%. microsoft down 4%. c3 a.i. is down as well.

a lot of the investors weighed in at delivering alpha. take a listen. >> i think this is transformational. i think it is going to determine just like internet and mobile phone buying. it will determine the difference with winners and losers across sectors. it has the potential to be marginal. >> every company is talking about the utilization of a.i. today. it is hard to substantiate that as a core technical a.i. i do think we are starting to think about optimizing technical tools and not just head count reduction. you are seeing the usage of technology. i'll use the term broadly because the concept of a.i. is a farce of how overused it is. i'm seeing the innovation of how companies are bringing better tools to customers. >> i lived through a few bubbles. we like to describe these moments as super cycles.

internet, mobile, cloud computing and now a.i. they are the start of these things that are going to be profoundly impactful in our lives. at those moments, you can also have over-hype and price. as an investor or builder, you have to get comfortable with simultaneous and competing truths. we probably overestimate which leads to price inflation and impact these things will have. much like the internet in 1998 and 1999, there was overpricing, but we underestimated the impact it would have over the proceeding decade. >> jeff, i want to focus on the last one. when it comes to a.i. stocks, we see the pullback, but do we see over-hype and price?

>> what is fascinating is brad is right. at the same time, if you look at amazon and talk about being a little bookstore. you talk about a.i. and it is touching every aspect of our life. ipo, chatgpt. if we look at nvidia, yes, it is down 8% in the last month. still up 195% year to date. focus on stocks like intel or ibm or micron. those are the names we want to own as the a.i. is just getting going. we get excited by owning diversification. microsoft, google and amazon are big players. >> jeff, what is the wex word of the day here? give us your best investment idea. >> my word of the day is relent. that is specific to u.s. treasury yields letting up. i think you have to look at

where you rebalance on the last day of the month and quarter. it is my birthday, frank. a lot's going on today. we have seen energy the last three months with mpc being a leader up 35% year to date. i want to trim that and buy more exxon. it seems crude oil is going up to $100. >> jeff kilburg, thank you. here on "worldwide exchange," we have breaking news. this just in. prosecutors in paris say bernard arnault and a russian oligarch are being investigated right now. a quick look at futures in the green across the board. dow would open up 130 points

higher. we will leave it there. have a great friday and great weekend. "squawk box" is up next. (♪ ♪) the walking tree is said to change its entire location in pursuit of sunlight (♪ ♪) where could reinvention take your business? accenture. let there be change.

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good morning. welcome to the final trading day of the third quarter. stock futures pointing to gains thanks to nike. i'll show you what else is moving right now. l late last night, the house republicans pass spending bills to avoid a government shutdown. we will take you live to washington. it's still open. for now. and the uaw set to expand its strikes again. this morning, sources say they are frustrated with the slow

pace of negotiations. it is friday, september 29th, 2023. just one more day. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. heavy rain. it will keep going on. we will see. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. although it is raining out right now, it looks like the u.s. equities are looking up. dow futures up 135 points. s&p indicated up 20. nasdaq indicated up over 100. a big part of this and