pat myself on the back. jason snipe? >> nobody else will. >> costco, another solid quarter. membership renewal up 92%. >> brenda? >> pal nalto network. >> good stuff. good weekend, everybody. "closing bell," i'll see you then. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, scott. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what is ahead this hour. inflation data trending down today. and so far yields are, as well. but don't get too excited. the government most certainly about to shutdown, that could mean no jobs report next friday. also shutting down, more auto plants, as the uaw strike expands, more than 20% of big three production is now offline. and then there are some 70,000 child care centers at risk of shutting down, as the

pandemic -- while health care workers may strike next week. all of this with big implications for inflation and the economy. how are markets digesting it? we start with dom chu and the latest on that. >> a little indigestion as we progress through the day. we were solidly in the mean at one point today, but we are trading at session lows. the dow down about one half of 1%, 136 points down. the s&p 500 now below the 4300 mark. 4292, down about six points, the session low. we were up roughly 34 points at the highs of the decision. so down six right now, down about 1/10th of 1%. even the tech trade, up north of % today for the nasdaq composite, is up 1/3 of 1%, up 39 points, 13,249. one place that's interesting in the marketplace right now is energy.

specifically between so-called new energy, solar, that sort of thing, versus traditional oil and gas, fossil fuels. if you take a look over the course of this year, the energy sector spider, oil and gas type companies, up 3.5%. the solar etf that attract ms. of those names, down 29%. but it's been tracking fairly closely until about the summer. and then you saw the real divergence happening. that gap is getting wider and wider, something to keep a close eye on as interest rates play here, so watch the energy trade. and one other place to watch, we talk about interest rates and government bonds, often in terms of the yield. so twitter users and x users have said, why don't you look at some of the price action there with regard to etfs. so let's do that, to put that in other perms, the 20-year treasury bond etf, the ticker tlt, that's the white line. you can see the real severe dropoff in the summer towards

where we are right now, translating to the highs in yields back in 2007. but check out the high yield ticker here, it's been holding relatively steady throughout the course of this year, even investment grade corporate debt not down as much. so what it comes down to, this is very much about interest rates, inflation, money supply. credit stress right now, kelly, has not yet to manifest itself as much, certainly in the high yield market. it will be a dynamic to watch to the coming end of the year. >> watching it like a hawk. dom, thank you very much. that rise in yields has a warning issued about the fed's path of tightening. take a listen. >> the fed should stop. what they are doing is the balance sheet of the united states. the economy is going to slow. the regional banks do not have money. >> there's another barry who agrees. barry knapp said the fed and the

bond route poses so much risk to banks, he's no longer recommending investors get into equities for a year-end rally. welcome. >> thanks, kelly. >> you're not just talking about bank stocks, you're talking about the market more broadly? >> yes, yes. so my expectation was, until the fed meeting of last week, that we still were on path for a potential bold steepening of the curve driven by disinflation, so three ways the curve can disinvert, and it absolutely needs to disinvert by the first half of next year, because we have a crackup coming in multifamily real estate, the banking system, small businesses, the labor market. but of those three potential ways to curve conditions, the path we are on for most of this year, which was the reason i was so bullish, was because if the

curve disinverts as a consequence of disinflation and the fed decides hey, it's working, let's just stop hiking and then perhaps even start cutting in the first half of next year, as the banking system comes under increasing stress, we had a good chance of having that benign outcome. if the curve steepens or disinverts because the economy really weakens, employment weakens, that will end the recovery and corporate earnings. that's a negative outcome. that seems to be what the fed now is depending on. the meeting last year and the subsequent speeches, all implied the fed just thinks growth is too strong and needs to go down. it's as if they're saying they want corporate earnings to go down further. and then there's the worst case scenario that we are in the midst of, which is just the back

end selling off and long-term rates going above five. it's a risk, stocks and bonds lose, everything loses. >> a lot of people thought the opposite would happen that the long end would decline. as you said, the most notable event of the week is the impulsive selloff in the treasury market. >> right. >> some investors are starting to tell me they might be thinking about buying here, and in the long run, a slower economy will trump deficit concerns. will that cap the haywire move in bond yields do you think? >> that seems to be the only thing. the selloff on the back end, 39 years of being in the markets, i only recall two periods where the market really backed up to absorb supply. that was from january 4th of '21 when the republicans lost the senate in the georgia special

runoffs through the signing of the american recovery plan, the fiscal stimulus where 30-year real rates, a portion of the treasury curve least affected by policy or the balance moved out 60 basis points just on the line. that same thing happened in august and through the middle of this year, where we're at 75 basis points and counting. so this is a real sign that the u.s. is reaching its fiscal limit. our ability to borrow is really limited by janet yellen losing all her best customers. she lost the fed, who was her number one customer. she lost the banking system that's now shedding treasuries to get ready for this coming storm in commercial real estate, multifamily in particular. and she lost foreign buyers, as well. particularly asian buyers. so this is a little bit of a warning sign that the policymakers really haven't picked up on. >> i think it's fascinating, because we're in this fight

about the government shutdown. an observer from mars might think there's a government shutdown fight, but i'm not sure there will be any spending changes here. it looks like it would literally take a further bound route that pushed the stock market into a rout to change the course of that action on the fiscal side. >> i couldn't agree more strongly. congress is haggling about the 30% of spending, which is discretionary. after the deal that they did this summer, the cpo projections for the next ten years barely moved. i mean, the only way to really get our debt on a sustainable path is through entitlement reform. neither of the presidential candidates are talking about that. >> not at all. >> the fed has barely acknowledged this. i suppose chairman powell's admission might have been attributable to supplies. it may be a tiny first step, but we are so far away from

policymakers even recognizing that the markets are telling them, hey, you're at the limit and being able to actually do anything about it. so this was a scary week from that perspective. >> i agree. i wanted to ask you about multifamily, which everyone has been saying will hold up the commercial real estate. but i want to ask you a different question instead. we watch the global financial crisis play out as a fast-moving train wreck. i'm trying to understand what a projection of this bond route might look like as a crisis. does it become one or not? maybe it's just an adjustment we're going through and it will ultimately work itself out. >> yeah, i read peter's note. i agree to that point, you know, that would be a real sign that we're reaching the breaking point, were the dollar to go

down at the sam point long-term rates were moving higher. listen, it could be the 2024 election. neither candidate is giving any indication that they think this is an issue. there is a whole series of potential triggers. i was at a macro conference. those tended to be bearish, and we speculated about catalysts for what i'm describing as a warning sign, not unlike the auto downgrades in 2005, the early signs of the financial crisis. there's a whole myriad of things that's correct happen and the long end just completely released. so it's -- >> and yet, i have literally friends of friends going, you know what? 5% or close to that on the 30-year, they're all thinking maybe households will come to the rescue and be buyers of this massive treasury debt. >> that is the one buyer remaining is households, for sure. >> the last leg -- that's not an

endorsement of yours, i don't think. >> umm, no. listen, i think the bottom line is that these are early warning signs. if the growth outlook deteriorates and the fed changes their tune and says, we are indeed done, that's a better outcome than having another financial accident. i am truly worried about regional bank earnings in three or so weeks' time. >> that's a perfect place to leave it. barry, thank you. appreciate your time. thanks for spending it with us. >> all right, kell. as he just mentioned, time is running out for lawmakers to avert a government shutdown. and if there's no deal before 12:01 a.m. tomorrow night, we will be in one. our emily will kins is live on capitol hill with the latest. >> reporter: hey, kelly. as we speak right now, the house is preparing to vote on a stop-gap measure to temporarily fund the government.

now, republicans did unanimously approve a procedural vote to go forward with the bill, but it doesn't seem like the stop gap is going to get as much support. about half a dozen matters will oppose any stop gap funding. the house bill will fund the government through october 30th. it would limit migrant crossings, beef up border security and create a fiscal commission to address national debt. a lot in there. each so, you have a number of house members that say hey, we're not going to approve this at all. even if something changes and republicans are able to pass that stop gap, it's dead in the senate, which means we are still on track for a shutdown starting on sunday night. kevin mccarthy, his strategy here, his entire focus is on border security. he wants to make sure there is some border security measure with any sort of stop gap. senators are working to find a bipartisan immigration policy that they could add to the senate stop gap measure.

mccarthy said he needs real policy change to support the senate's proposal. >> what you have to do is get real policy, like what we are doing today. this gives real policy, because the challenge is what the president has done here by opening the border. you have to get 60 votes in the senate for policy change. that's going to be a high threshold, but it has to be policy. >> reporter: he suggested that he could accept policy similar to one from former president trump that would require migrants applying for asylum in the u.s. to remain in mexico or other countries while they wait. but it remains to be seen what, if anything, the senate decides on, and kelly, i think at this point the question isn't whether we are going into a shutdown, it's how long the shutdown will be. >> emily, thank you so much. here's something else the government shutdown could effectively also shut down, the ipo market, which had just

started to reopen. in a shutdown, s.e.c. staff will be reduced to skeletal levels. for more, let's bring in our business editor at axios. dan, what are you hearing? welcome. >> accuming there's a government shutdown, there's not an ipo market until the government shutdown ends, whether that's two days or two months. >> did we have an ipo market in 2013? this is one angle i don't remember doing much reporting about at the time. >> i spoke to some bankers yesterday. they created teams or have been having meetings to game out what this means for their clients and their business. and so the bankers i spoke to looked back and say no, nothing got done during that period. >> let's take burken stock. are there others waiting in the

wings? >> that's the big one, the one we all know. birkenstock was going to launch their ipo road show next week. say this is a two-week shutdown, that doesn't put everything back two weeks, just creates more of a log jam when the government shutdown ends. for birkenstock, they could still launch the ipo road show, but it loses so much flexibility. if it wants to change its range a lot, and even if you get investors to buy in, and there were no new s.e.c. comments, it still has to get its final registration document approved by the s.e.c., and there may be no one there to do it. so in short, there's no compelling reason for birkenstock to start on sunday if the government shuts down. >> what was the initial timeline? >> we were hearing that there could be a price range as early as monday orb tuesday. that was the plan. but right now, this is wone of

those things they have no control over. the one complication here for a bunch of companies, we're talking about the end of q3, which means companies might have to include another quarter of earnings in their final documents. they're obviously working on this stuff, but that could delay things a couple of days or cost a little bit more money. >> i'm just curious of the s.e.c., could this have broader implications for credit issuance and other things happening in the marketplace. i don't know if their level with the ipos is much higher than other things. >> it's higher in terms of the rules. it's kind of what you need as ann issuer. so 144-a, convertible offerings, those could go through. it's ipos that are most notable in terms of what would happen here. >> fascinating.

i know people who own this are figuring out that the cpi would be based off of the august -- every corner of the market is affected by regulators not being in their seats. dan, thanks so much. and the artwork behind you is getting better and better. how old are the kids now is >> the one that drew these, she's a little older and upset that i have things from when she was in second and third grade. i keep telling her to paint more. >> they are beautiful. she can send one my way any time. dan, thank you for joining us. still to come, the uaw strike expanding once again. now more than 20% of big three production is offline. dan leavy calls this the most unorthodox strike he's seen. he's back with us, next. the ceo of bright horizon calling america's child care crisis a trilemma of access, affordability and quality.

and here is a look at markets that have turned lower. you can cite fed comments, cite bond yields or the closing of this terrible month that we have had. the dow is down almost 200 points. the s&p is down 15. the nasdaq clinging on to a three-point gain. and it looks like the ten-year has gone green, meaning the yield is higher the way we do it. 4.567. we're back after this.

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welcome back to "the exchange." the uaw strike expanding once again. more plants shutting down. it's now hitting more than 20% of u.s. production. shares of the big three are lower today, and ford's ceo is holding a call as we speak. phil lebeau joins us with the latest. some hot headlines already, phil. >> yeah. he's frustrated. you can't blame him. he believes they have put a record offer on the table. we'll hear more from jim farley throughout the day. essentially, it's what we have heard for several days now, both from jim farley, as well as his counterparts at gm and stellantis. they don't feel as though there's true progress being made, not because they're not trying to get it done. but here's the thing we saw in the last hour. this is the ford plant on the south side of chicago where they

make the explorer. some of the more than 7,000 gm and ford employees who have walked off the job. here are the two strikes announced today. the addition allocations. the ford chicago assembly plant where they make the explorer and the lincoln aviator. 12% of ford's u.s. production. and then there's the lansing plant, that is worth just under 10% of gm's u.s. production. here is one of those gm workers who walked off the job, talking with us within the last hour. >> we're not going to get everything, but at the same time, we'll get something that will make everyone feel appreciated a little more, and we'll be back to work. >> talking about that frustration. general motors saying it made a comprehensive counteroffer last week to the uaw and that they have not heard anything since last week. that's what they say is an example of their frustration. and jim farley is talking with

reporters and analysts as we speak. i want to show you shares of stellantis. stellantis not named in the additional strikes today. the uaw president said that they are seeing progress in those talks with stellantis. but, again, kelly, it's too soon to say that we see anything close to a resolution with any of the automakers and the uaw. >> if anything, it looks like it's getting worse, the way dan ives described it with ford in the cross hairs and this escalating battle of words between the two sides. it's noteworthy that ford has an issue with the battery plant with the chinese company they were going to do. so gm and ford are undercutting each other, as well. gm doesn't want ford's plant to qualify for the ev subsidies that will dictate everybody's staying power down the road. and ford thinks their approach is the only way to do this in an economically feasible way. so they're at odds with each other.

>> they always are. kelly, they always are. that is separate. and i know it's hard for people to keep the discussion about the chinese involvement in this plant, the proposed plant in michigan, that ford is working on the license technology. that political discussion is separate from the discussion between ford and the uaw. basically, it comes down to the uaw, once those jobs, about 2500 when it opens up, to be uaw members under the same contract. with everybody else at ford, because sit a subsidiary. if it was a joint venture, the uaw would have to negotiate with the joint venturer in terms of getting those workers organized. so that's the issue there, with regard to this battery plant. bottom line is this, kelly. all of the automakers are in the same spot. there is no indication that the uaw is close to wrapping this up with any of them. what have i said for some time? the uaw believes it has leverage

and momentum. and as long as it believes that, it can push these strikes to go on longer and likely add more locations. and because it's an effective way for them to put pressure, they believe, an effective way for them to put pressure on all of the automakers. >> phil, thank you very much. and my next guest says this negotiation is ultimately a fight about the big three's transition to evs. they have a lower labor foot print than traditional combustion engine cars, could result in job cuts and workers are being paid more than 20% more than tesla workers. but could this pressure tesla to raise wages or even cause workers to unionize? let's bring in dan leavy. really appreciate you stealing some time away from the ford call. the bottom line here, do you think that these shares will be under more pressure the weeks to come? >> hi, kelly. thank you so much for having me.

you know, our view on the way the strike had been impacting the stock prices is that a lot of this was already being priced in from a profit stand point, the impact right now is transitory. we think it's for ford and gm, $80 million to $90 million in lost profit in production. but they can make that up. the question remains around how much they will absorb. we think for now, the stocks are okay. if this continues to extend for some time, there could be initial pressure. again, the key question for the automakers is how much cost will they ultimately absorb given the challenges they have on ev transition. >> again, colleagues of yours thinks it could be fatal. he's not very optimistic about it. certainly if the demands respect agreed to. >> yeah, they certainly won't agree to the full demands. that's not going to happen. and we think that the way that the negotiations are shaping

out, some of the things like wages, cola, we think there will be a resolution on that. really, the key question in our mind is around product allocation, job security. the automakers are seeking greater flexibility. uaw is seeking greater job security. as we noted, the marshal battery plant that bill just referenced, that's one of the questions here. do does plants unionize? what happens in an ev world? we think that the automakers will need to seek flexibility, given there will be likely a labor impact in an ev world? >> how can ford and gm compete? they have a $60 an hour labor cost where tesla is $45. will they be successful in bringing tesla's up? otherwise, their costs are going higher. >> we think costs will increase. this is naturally going to happen, not only across tesla

but across the transplant. you know, this is naturally the case. can they unionize? we noted in the past, it's been a tougher effort by the uaw. and that, in part, has been because tesla benefited from paying employees with stock comp. with the stock where it is, that may not be the same benefits in the future. so wages are going to go up at tesla. this is the case for all of the automakees, it's a constant battle on all aspects to offset these different inflationary pressures, including wages. >> dan, really appreciate it. dan leavy from barclays. still to come, we're tracking the flow show, as we head into the fourth quarter. we'll tell you whether or not to jump into that trade. and here is a look at the dow heat map, where we have 2-1 decliners with nike and walgreen's your biggest gainers.

travelers and walmart are the biggest decliners today. "the exchange" is back after this. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business.

welcome book "the exchange." i'm courtney reagan. new york governor kathy hochul declared a state of emergency for new york city after heavy rainfall and flooding. many subway and rail services have been suspended and the terminal at laguardia was closed. some areas will see up to eight inches of rainfall before the storms move on. parts of the city have experienced five inches of rain so far this morning. las vegas police arrested a man connected to the fatal 1996 shooting of hip-hop icon tupac

according to the associated press, which says police arrested dwayne davis this morning two months after they raided his home. the exact charges aren't clear. davis has admitted to being in the car when gunfire erupted the night tupac was killed 27 years ago. a tennessee judge is ending a conservatorship agreement between michael orr and the touhy family. he alleges they tricked him into the conservatorship, saying they were adopting him. they have denied any wrongdoing. kelly, back to you. >> courtney, thank you very much. still to come, 3.2 million, that's how many children could soon be without day care. we'll talk to the ceo of bright horizons about that and dig into

the big impact that could have on the labor market. the dow is down 145. and now, cnbc trend tracker.

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welcome back. the u.s. is heading for a so-called child care cliff, as key pandemic emergency relief funds expire tomorrow, leaving as many as 70,000 day care centers at risk of closing according to the century foundation. it means more than 3 million children could lose their spot it is that happened. but this is just the compounded trilemma of issues the industry was facing. joining me now is steven cramer,

the ceo of bright horizons with our senior economics reporter steve liesman. so what exactly sunsets tomorrow? >> the funding that has been a very valuable source of support for the child care industry is ending. we have always planned for this to end, and the focus of our work is gaining support from employers who have always provide valuable support to make sure employees had good access to high quality affordable child care. that said, many providers have relied heavily on the support, as well as other government funds. and so we do expect that there is going to be real challenge in the industry. but remember, child care providers, including us, are very focused on taking care of children and families and making sure they take care of their staff, as well.

so we'll work through a difficult period. but ultimately, this is going to end up for most providers needing to get care from working parents that are already stressed by the tuitions they are charged, and additional fees will likely be levied, which will make it very difficult for employees that want to continue to work. >> on average, child care costs $15,000 a year. there are some headlines lately how it's exceeding the cost of college. how much difference specifically to a family's costs are these pandemic programs making it? >> yeah. so for some providers, it's quite significant. and so they may be in a position of having to increase tuition by as much as 10%, 15% to hardworking families. as i mentioned at bright horizons, we have been planning for this. our employer clients are very supportive of their working parts. but in the general communities,

i think there is going to be a lot of challenge and placement of this back on families. >> so steve liesman, there's a great quote from one of the news pieces that says this profession makes all other professions possible. so when it comes to a time when we will see pressure on some younger families starting their student loan payments and so forth. >> yeah. i mean, this is from the page of cutting off your nose to spite your face. kelly, i'm here at the latitude conference where one of the focuses is on the latino population community's contribution to gdp. i bring that up, because one of the great sources of labor and labor growth in this country has been the latino community. one of the things that another source has been child care and the additional -- addition of women back into the workforce. if you look at that female participation rate, we are at 25-year highs. what makes that possible? well, it has been a bit of a

rebound in child care workers. so that participation rate, how have we run these strong numbers? because women coming into the workforce. you don't put zombies to work. you can't put ghosts to work. you put people to work. and one of the ways people come to work is they come to work by having child care at home, however they get it. and the concern here is if you have an increase in the cost of child care, with all this great progress we've made, being able to run essentially an economy with lower inflation, and high -- and low unemployment, it may go away or it may be challenged if we lose some of this contribution, especially of females in the workplace. >> investors still have your shares, up 28% this year. maybe they think you benefit in the market share. >> the pandemic has certainly taught our society, government,

employers, as well as working parents what an essential service really is. so as steve just mentioned, this is the essential service that allows working parents to go to work. and it also, by the way, is the foundation of creating the workforce of the future, our young children. so it's critically important to recognize that the persistence of strong access to high quality and affordable child care is at the very foundation of the strong economy. >> the only thing, steve liesman, as i think through this, i'm not sure -- listen, the more the government gets involved, you don't want to turn into education where it's $90,000 a year. so increased competition, what can ultimately we're paying for labor. and after trying to do this job myself, probably not paying enough. so how do we make this more affordable, do you think? >> yeah, kelly, we need to spend an hour on the program on how

you do it, because nobody quite understands it. >> i don't. >> at the high level you operate with the number of kids you have, it is theoretically impossible what you are doing. but as the theory always runs into actuality, you make it work, kelly. but we don't know that for all of the other women out there, and men which by the way, as we. i do want to point out, whatever the actual solution is, we don't have to reinvent this wheel. there was a point in time when the united states led the world in female participation in the workforce. we have let that slide and with no longer lead the world. we love being number one in america. i don't know why we don't strive for that. it's obviously some combination of private sector and some government assistance. if you look at the increase in participation, and just looking at data, it is across the board in the hispanic community, the black community, and in the

white community. so all races, and i guess demographics and incomes, have benefited for what's going on in this return-to-work in the female workforce. we've got to start to think about the future here, kelly. we can't keep thinking about what's the fed going to do next week? the big issue right now is the demographic challenge to the united states. it has to do with workforce. and if we want to grow and beat china and stay number one, one critical aspect of this is getting our child care programs right. end of story, i'm done. >> well said. it's what diane swonk said, as well. again, i would say this is a reason why personally i'm so pro work from home. employers have to maintain productivity, but this is an unprecedented situation. and one that we don't have the answers to. gentlemen, thank you both. coming up, it may feel like

we're in the middle of a tech rally, and if you exclude this stock, down 11% in q3, it's almost ft.la we will reveal our mystery chart, next.

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welcome back. tech stocks had a rough end to the summer. it's been a rough ride lower in september, as well. is it all that bad, though? maybe not so much. it could have actually been even better if it weren't for apple, according to bushstein. diedra bosa is here to discuss in today's tech check. what do we know? >> so, kelly, the last month in particular has been like the big tech giveback. but when you look a little closer, it felt more like a blip. i want to show you this graphic. it looks at the gains in the first half of the year versus gains in the second half.

apple is the culprit here. because of its oversized weighting, down about 10%, but it has still -- nvidia, take that stock. we know that it's been carrying the rest of the market. it reached a trillion dollars in market cap, down about 3%. barely denting that tripling in the first half of the year. you mentioned that burnstein note. here's how they put it. perception among some investors is that tech is in a lull and have given back a chunk of that. it's only modestly underperformed the market since july 1st. excluding apple, it's almost flat relative to the market. kelly, it also underscores this notion that big tech, remember earlier this year, it can also be seen as defensive. because they have these pristine balance sheets, very profitable. and of course, then you add in the generative ai cycle, which, you know, for some investors looking at this could mean much higher growth in the years ahead. >> i think that it's for sure

that whatever staples were 20 or 30 years ago, your iphone obviously feels like -- it feels that position today. but it is notable that apple is such a big part of apple's underperformance. >> it is. when you think that revenue suspect growing, they are expecting to see a decline this year, that is worrying. some people just say the stock is overvalued or looks expensive. when you look at valuations for tech as a whole, they remain elevated versus historical levels. again, you have this sort of ai boom that is supposed to bring those numbers up later. when it comes to apple, there is a debate, how do you judge that growth? you think about the installed base, can that grow and make up for a decline in smartphones, the iphone? >> indeed. diedra, we appreciate it, aztec closes out a tough month. diedra bosa reporting for tech check. still to come, what about

the rest of the market? we'll get a look at what the etfs are telling us about the direction for the rest of the year, including a few red agfls in a typically defensive sector. that's next.

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♪ welcome back to the exchange. stocks are on track for a negative quarter as rising rates spook the market. the key question now, will we get some rebound and traction in q-4. joining me now is eft and technical strategist at a baird company. what jumps out to you here? >> how are you? i would pay attention to what sentiment forms as we head into the fourth quarter here. if you think back to earlier this summer, flows from the equity space really started to run hot as i think most investors thought this valley was for real. it manifested itself into a correction and now you're starting to see flows cool off. the one ingredient i'm looking for is a spike in inverse value,

the etfs that short the market. that hasn't quite happened yet. i'm looking for that as we start to head into october. that would give me confident that this dip is finally coming to a conclusion. >> what you're telling me is not a good sign. we want maximum fear. and people have started to cite t that. you're saying we haven't quite approached that level yet, there could be some more downside to come? >> i think we're in the zip code, but we've seen much worse. even back to about a year ago, early october, that was max pessimism. we're on our way there. i wouldn't mind seeing just a little bit more to really increase our probabilities of having a great rally going forward into the fourth quarter. >> how important -- and talk to me -- about treasuries. hanging on every word at this point. what do you see in the flows? >> long-duration treasures are

ground zero of the market. keep in mind, the tlt is a bond product wrapped in equity-like volatility. that's a big understatement missed by investors. you're still seeing money fpile into the fund. and while you have seen some panic-like volumes over the last few days which i think is good to get maybe a little bit of a bounce, i think it's a hard competition to go out and buy that volatility versus, say, stepping into a money market fund where you're getting a higher yield but without any sort of volatility there. while the tlt drawdown is a record, trying to find the low is extremely challenging for everyone out there. >> we have breaking news. you also see people leaving the financials. i love to bring it full circle to our first segment where barry

knapp was concerned about the regional banks. do you think other investors are now? >> yeah. i like when you start to see outflows from sectors when they're rising. i think interest rate pressure is starting to agitate those financial-type names again. you can start to think about it from a contrarian perspective, but not entirely big flush like we saw earlier this year. i would at least stay on the sidelines right now if you're looking to allocate to the financials. >> that's interesting. i love getting your pulse. the efts are ground zero. thanks for your time this afternoon. appreciate it. todd stone. i mentioned breaking news. emily wilkins, what's happening? >> reporter: i told you at the top of the hour that republicans were preparing for a very important vote on a stopgap measure. that vote has been taken and it has failed. 21 republicans joined democrats in opposing what would have been basically a 30-day stopgap that

would have kept the government funded. this makes a shutdown all the more likely because it shows that house republicans have a series serious problem with none of their members wanting a stopgap funding that would prevent a shut down. what happens next? house republicans will be getting together and huddling a little later this afternoon. we'll keep an eye on that meeting. house democrats are very clearly now a part of the game. speaker kevin mccarthy cannot end a future shutdown without democratic support. and a big question what that looks like because if he goes for democrats, then he could face some threats for his own speakership, of course, remember the senate is also working on their bipartisan stopgap plan. however, the senate has to go through a number of procedural votes and as soon as the senate canpass anything would be monday. even then, it's not clear it will go through the house. we're looking at a shutdown and one that could last awhile. >> we appreciate it for now.

thank you so much. following each twist and turn as the market does as well. the dow heading back towards session lows. shy of 200 points. that does it for us on "the exchange," but we'll pick things m u n "power lunch." dochis getting ready and i'll join him on the other side of this break. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪ ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity.

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you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪ welcome to "power lunch" alongside kelly evans, i'm dom an -- dominic chu. the stocks are falling to session lows at this point as a last chance to avoid a shutdown. as many people head to theaters to see a movie about meme mania, we'll talk to a man who was at the center of it. robinhood ceo will join us thi