breakout. >> tim? >> tim's pfizer beat the trend today. terrible chart. i think the valuation's off. >> carter. >> >> double. going with tim's pfizer. also tlt playing for the bounce. >> bonawyn? >> great chart, structure

closer to cold and great shape here. back to monday the first date of the fourth quarter and it starts with something we have covered very well. that is the -- which is the

snackfood business. that is a north american serial business. -- cheeses, pringles and pop tarts among other goodies that may not be all that good for you. kellogg's -- since the breakup was announced. either way, i can -- these are agents of economic decline. the government close impacts -- so it is not as big of a deal but the auto -- is truly an issue that keeps expanding. if it keeps expanding next week, it will not be all that good. the stocks trade like there will be a deal. when you listen to the united auto workers, he seems like a bit of a capricious fella. especially when he has the president of the united states walking a picket line. fords offer has been generous here it is getting really

personal i don't like that. -- and it is not clear whether they will say anything. remember -- is to stop inflation, not to boost growth. i doubt he will make us feel better about things. he is a very good man. in order to see rates go down, we will have much more unemployment. tuesday we get results from mccormick. the spice company. they also make seasonings pick they have a new ceo. the -- food group has been out of favor. -- once to rollback their price increases from the last few years. -- which is most likely too high for his cohort and that is why the stock has been steadily declining. -- is the iconic your company.

liquor has only been okay as of late. this year has been a downer but your sales are still strong work this company has been firing on all cylinders. i like the stock, not as much as i like constellation brands, the parent of corona and medela. i expect a good number. they might give us a hint of a major restructuring that could be announced that -- in november. wednesday, a staple. it sounds like a food company. it is cyber security. it will hold its meeting. it is called octane. you inc. sales force, dream force, maybe it is the guys at west davis. they have a strange sense of humor. ceo todd mckinnon will talk about the difficulties because they prey on employees to try to be helpful. the bad guys never stop which

is terrific for up to that -- and for the security cohort in general but that is why we have such a big position. thursday -- conagra brands reports -- down to $28. that is rather remarkable. if you get five percent from treasuries -- the stocks are just terrible. you might be intrigued by levi's which quoted an up grade this week. -- has been totally out of style on wall street except for -- which can do no wrong here if there is an analyst that has moved the stock, stunning quarter and a great forecast

next time. and the labor report will decide whether we can truly rally in october if you want to know where the market is headed, no number is more important than the labor departments nonfarm payroll that we get on friday. again we won't get it if the government shuts down. it can thread the needle on the softer side we can come into real earnings season which starts the week after with a decent and positive --. let's go to greg in new york. >> i'm a big fan of your show. thank you for everything what you are doing out there for us. >> thank you i greatly appreciate that. how can i help.'s back at my question is specifically about united airline. what should i do? >> i am not a big fan of the airlines. they have run out of steam. what i would tell you is this. the true cost is making it so

they really on their heels. -- whether it is right or not. so to frank in florida. >> thank you for taking my call and i appreciate everything you do for us. i know you are an eagles fan. >> maybe i will take tuesday off. i don't know. what is it? >> there you go. >> by or so -- buy or sell -- global? >> everything is related to the banks. anything involving the banks are quiet. i have to tell you another payment service provider even though it is one of the original ones i will not endorse it. the market doesn't like them. marvin. >> hey jim, we have two things for you.

number one, you have the best educational investing show ever on tv. congratulations for that. >> thank you. >> be careful going home because the weather is. >> yes. my wife told me it is very difficult to get from one area to the another. i appreciate that. >> gets safe. i just wanted to ask about mcdonald. why are they taking the 10%? >> there has been some some chatter between the franchise and management doesn't seem to be going that well here i also think we are paying less for every single stock. some might just say listen i'm not going to pay that. i will only pay 20 times earnings. that is that multiple contraction we see in all the great pro stocks. next week it is all about the jobs report. it shows some slots in the

labor force. tonight as you know -- that didn't stop -- for making their debut. i am recapping all the deals this month and where we stand. that it seems like every rally is bad news for --. it is going to shock you. she told you not to -- because it would be a bad month. you called in and you saw me -- motor care and so tonight i am turning in my homework and sharing where i come down. one of us seems very attractive. find out which one. so stay with kramer.

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september has been a -- month in the market but -- important stories out there. researches of the ipo market. we had three major deals. and then a digital marketing company -- all told according to the ipo experts from renaissance capital, there are 11 deals of september that collectively raised $6.7 million. capping off -- it was the best

the ipo market has been since the fourth quarter of 2021. so now that we had three major deals in the last month, it is fair to ask how did they go? how did they do? to which i say --. i'd say they went great. priced at the high end of the -- range, it had to be raised in the may priced at the high end of the range. they got out. i also think this is perfect results for the investment banks especially goldman sachs. they had a major role in all three deals, something that makes me feel pretty good about my alma mater. -- investment opportunity right

here. once again if the ipo market keeps recovering, that is a great reason to buy the investment bank stocks. we care about most of all how did the investors do? and if you look at how the investors had done, then you get results that are frankly more mixed. people got a piece of these deals. and price they are doing fine. -- are both trading solidly where they came. down 1%, not bad. so if you have to piece these major deals, you did make money in two of them and you outperformed in all three. in other words, this is where the deal priced, not where you might have bought it in a public market but where the deal was when you got the stock. the reason that is important is because if you put any of these new public docs in the open market after they began

trading, you are probably kicking yourself especially -- began trading which i told you to avoid. it is now 53 and change. better off waiting. insta cart, if you bought it right out of the gate, you got killed. -- that has come down. this is why i always tell you not to buy new ipos out of the gate. they typically tend to pull back after the first day which is when you get a better entry. i'm not just being a killjoy. arm holdings came first in this semiconductor designer is indeed one of my favorite stocks. arm open at $56.10. i don't know how it squeezed right up there in the last day of our. it peaked at $69.

after that though, the stock immediately started giving back it gains. they finished down 4.5% and sent back down to the low 50s as of today. while i'm a little surprised there wasn't more -- i'm grateful this opportunity has given me the opportunity to buy. much more attractive proper -- prices. on the night of the ipo, i gave my blessing on a very small position not to go to large position until the stock pulled back low to mid 50s. too much going right. cpu designs make them a vital -- in the semi conductor ecosystem and that will not change anytime soon. you know i just think -- is horrific. next there is maple bear. the stock opened for trading at $42. it then plunged to close at

$33.70. on the first day. since then it has continued to drift lower. can say i'm surprised about this one. the stock seem too expensive. it is still too expensive. this one was a wild one. the stock opened 36 up to 39. it close at $32.76 on day one, less than three days above. that is exactly where -- bottomed and since then the stocks gradually worked their way higher. it is intriguing but i have to do some more homework before i give you a clear verdict. i am issuing an open invitation to any of these companies. back on topic, the thing that jumps out most about the latest wave of ipos is that their stocks are trading just like nearly every other major deal.

i told you to wait for j&j because i figured shareholders would take some time to sell up their shares. sure enough the stock is down more than 25%. i think -- is tempting that 4% yield but we are seeing -- during pregnancy. i cannot give this endorsement until we learn more about litigation having been burned so badly on litigation. in june -- group became public. this is very exciting. i talked about it openly. mediterranean fast casual change. i said you should hold off on buying unless he can get a piece of the actual ipo. sure enough -- first day of trading. they kept climbing over the next month and a half. than the stock collapsed. and spent the last couple of months sinking to $30 and

change. the stock opened at $42 on the first day of trading. maybe we can circle back after a lockup. that may be your chance. we always like to -- autodetect is an israeli cosmetics company. at the time the stock was trading $49 is now at $28 and change. i think it is interesting that it sells for just over 17 times -- but the lock -- expires in january. so let's wait until then before we think about owning it. here's the bottom line. even with the researching ipo market, you need to remember your discipline. you almost never want to buy a newly public stock right out of the gate as i just demonstrated. they might go on for a few days or even a few weeks but then they almost always get ack those gains. the next time you see an

exciting ipo, please remember to be patient. if you love it, the odds favor waiting for a lower price than where it opened. you will indeed get a lower price. back after the break. >> coming up, why oils gain doesn't necessarily mean --. stick with kramer. icy hot.

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-- because they are in favor of inflation but after a day where we got surprisingly softer than ask becton -- it is worth thinking about whether this -- makes any sense whatsoever and whether you should really use it. that is why we are going off the charts with the legendary technician who is been a top expert as a child. he has created a ton of proprietary indicators. he says i have warned us in the bulk of september and august would be awful. he predicted things might not take a good turn for the better until late september which seemed to be happening this morning. so let's talk about the history of the stock market. these days you can't -- here that higher oil is bad for us. larry williams says this is a complete myth. when you look at the history,

he is right. so check out this chart of the dow jones industrial average in black and the price of west texas from late 2008 to 2012. most of the time when oil rallies, stocks rally. higher oil prices almost never push stock prices. it has been positive for the stock markers -- market. that's certainly how it was 15 years ago. during the bear market, the price of oil bottomed before the stock market did. reality was precisely the opposite of all the chatter we hear lately. what about more recently? if you look at the action in the dow and the price of oil,

this is from 2015 until 020. you see there is will simply an immediate precursor of market phillips even if that seems that is the world market is right now. what happens when the price of oil goes down? dollars in back -- black and the crew is in red. for may 2014 for early 2016, oil went into a hideous fair market thanks to a massive oversupply. -- should've been good news for the stock market right? well clearly wrong. oil started rolling over -- completely lost their mojo. nearly all of their upside momentum. next thing you know they are trading sideways. in fact not only to the stocks and will tend to trade the same direction in the short-term but williams things looking at oil can be a great way to forecast where stocks might be headed. he is constantly looking at

patterns from the past. so how about the long-term relationship between stocks and oil wax one persistently -- won't persistently high oil prices --. take a look at this chart. it is the down black and the price of crude in red. this time larry shifted the price of crude forward by about three years. the price of oil three years ago tends to be surprisingly good barometer of where the stock market might be headed. this is a good chance stocks will rally now. full disclosure. really important. i do not have any idea what the mechanism for this would be. i'm clueless about how this kind of pattern works. i can't deny the pattern exists. from late 2017 early 2021, the price of oil three years ago did an excellent job of forecasting where the dow was headed. may be higher energy rices

take three years to fill the rest of the economy in a positive way. as many -- money flows, maybe there is another dynamic i cannot figure out. the pattern surprisingly is reliable. why look underneath it? that is the truth. and you know what it stayed pretty reliable. when you look at those same relationships -- price of about three years ago, you find it has held up from 2022 the first half of this year. predicts rallies it predicts declines. the linkages almost uncanny. let's look at the dow and the price of oil backdated three years from late 2021 through today and then in the future. the whole of the exercise is to predict where stocks might be headed. -- guide to action in the stock market throughout this period that relationship held up. we will know pretty soon because this backdated oil forecast says the stock market is in for a tremendous rally

starting in november. gives them yet another reason to -- at the end of the year. he is the one who told us the seasonal pattern tends to turn positive as we head into october. so we have another reason to feel more construct. i know when we are terrified, it seems every oil rally is terrible news for the stock market but will and the dow jones industrial average more than not treated in the same direction pick your best bet is to look at how crude oil was behaving three years ago because that is a surprisingly reliable predictor of where the stock market might be headed right now. i believe in this, i believe in larry's work. he told us september would be awful. he says october is going to be better. now you see how great november is going to be. i am with williams because he has been right at every big turning point since we have been working together. let's take calls and go to jim

in florida. >> boo you got to you. >> i like that. >> i want to thank you and all your staff for all the help you have been doing. >> i cannot hear that enough. we are in the throes of a difficult market we want to be helping people. when we hear someone like you say that, we know we are doing our job how can i help you >> my question is on a limited partnership that focuses mainly on renewable energy. i took a position on this company back in may. on wednesday the stock was down quite a bit. the simple is an ep. should i buy more wax speckled that is a partnership that frankly i don't really understand. sometimes i am willing to say i don't understand why that stock is acting so badly.

i really don't. let's look into it. this is a limited partnership. it is not the usual one we look into and i will get back to you. i thank you for your confidence and i hope i do not let you down. let's go to stewart. >> how are you? >> i am a little wet. the basement just got flooded. i asked my wife what to do and she said thanks for nothing. that was certainly the implication. >> you always say there is always a bull market somewhere. i would like to call your attention to uranium. massive massive shortages and my stock is energy fuels. >> i went over this with ben who works with me and ben is the research director. i said okay, let's focus on uranium we have to because it is hot hot hot and i believe in the power and this is integral to its. you have a good idea. it might seem like high oil prices are bad but larry

williams, he is the best show the direction of crude is actually a strong indicator of where the stock market could be headed next and it is --. much more ahead. i always promise to do the homework and come back with an answer. i will do that next. i will show i did it with -- services and with motive care. then how we feel about playing the earnings game. i'm sharing my strategy for how you should navigate in investing a company that is ready to work. all your calls rapid firing so stay with kramer.

every night i take your phone calls because it is important to talk about the stock that you want to talk about. first off back on august 10th, stephen york asked me about prime morris services. it is a special contracting company based in dallas. it was a pipeline construction play but these days they do maintenance, fabrication and engineering stuff. they mainly serve oil and gas companies, state departments of transportation. tons of gas and electric utilities. prime morris is exciting because their numbers came in much higher than expected. $.21 earnings beat off of a

$.59 basis. -- up from just 2.8 billion five years ago. they added $2.5 billion to the backlog just last quarter alone. these guys are on fire. per morse has been making smart decisions. last year they bought a company called --. they now have a lot more utility customers. at the same time you have to expect prime morris to be a major beneficiary of all those -- in the inflation reduction act. last quarter alone these guys racked up $770 million worth of solar contracts i just talk about the -- explaining how first solar can keep outperforming its competitors inks to its large domestic manufacturing basis. many other solo penner lakers are looking to move their factories to to get a piece of the ira tax incentives which means they will need to hire someone like morris to do the construction. so the business looks good. i feel bad that prime morris

wasn't on my radar screen earlier. this is in a gigantic -- of nearly 50% year over day. this might back about 10% from august ties thanks to the market. i think this selloff is a gift. per morse currently trades at 10 point six and extra earnings which makes it must cheaper and similar engineering firms that i happen to like very much. thank you for putting prime morris on our radar screen pick next up august 14, mike new jersey called out about motive care. that is a tech enabled healthcare services company. you might know them as the providence services company which was the name until a couple of years ago. motive care is one of america's largest managers of nonemergency medical transportation programs for state governments and managed care organizations. a place home health aides and skilled nurses primarily through medicaid and they provide remote patient monitoring services including emergency response systems, medication management and --.

pretty straightforward. the older you get, the more likely you are going to need motive cares care that they are providing. there are millions of people every year who miss out on medical care due to lack of transportation. some of it often leads to complications. it is cheaper to make sure you make it to your appointments on time. they are already seeing a boost from this when they reported their most recent quarter last month. the company beat the consensus revenue estimates. there was also an up tick in medical transportation. motivcare -- turning that into higher earnings. that came in weaker than expected. while management raised their revenue forecast, they actually cut their four-year even to forecast. the cost to generate new

revenue has been higher than expected i never like to have that happen. i say out. they are also having trouble generating -- cash flow. the cash flow from operations was a surprisingly low. at the same time, they asked medicare -- a 10-15% decline in nonemergency medical transportation enrollment. so while i like their long-term leases, there are just too many western mark, too many near- term red flags to enforce this one. kinko positive on the stock until i see more consistent in the financials. is down more than 17%. including an odd 10% plus decline just this past wednesday. we cannot find a reach for that tell of it makes me feel like somebody knows something i don't. that is something clearly negative. i like motive cares chairman christopher and his hedge fund

policy. they have been buying more shares. not good enough reason for me to recommend this stock. -- has been buying this one all year and it hasn't helped. motivcare is down 65% year to date. if they can start beating earnings estimate and raising --, if they can start consistently generating positive cash flow, i would be willing to change my mind. for now, no. the execution, it just isn't there yet. i am kind of disappointed. mad money is back after the break >> coming up, kramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit. it is a fast fire lightning round next.

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lightning round. one last chance i want to give you the taste of the work we're doing for the investing club. today at 1020 a.m. when we saw the market industrial -- open, we encourage you to hold off. wait for lower prices they were not low enough for us to say time to do some buying. we said sit on your hands. that's okay. let's see where the market opens on monday. one of several touch points we do every day with the investing club is we want you to be informed about the market and the travel trust portfolio. alas, it is the last day the offer will be made.

so i say give it a try. and and now it is time for the lightning fire round. are you ready? stephen arizona. >> second time caller. >> fantastic. >> thank you for -- >> thank you. >> >> people are starting to worry about a recession again. and happens every single time but the stock is not priced for any -- and because of all the infrastructure money, 2024 is going to be a good year. last day for the good deal. let's go to betsy in california. >> hey jim i went to thank you for making -- through the

investing club. my thoughts today has a one- year return of -- a three-year percent of -- and a five-year return of 155.58%. although the current -- is 26.61, the -- is estimated to be only 12.45%. is another one of your very right ladies. >> she is real smart. she has done an unbelievable job. i have been so fearful of that age group. it is a winner. congratulations to you for finishing summa in the class. let's go to charles and maryland. >> good evening. how are you today? >> i am good. what is happening? >> i wanted to ask you about

exxon mobil. >> they continue to go higher. i like the stock. it has room to grow and it is doing quite well as a company. let's go to brian in oregon. >> from the -- of portland oregon. >> what is happening? speculative stock. not with my money, perhaps yours. let's go to quinton west virginia. >> boo yah. >> well that guy is coming to play. what is going on? >> -- american -- >> american water is the kind of stock that i like. it has come down greatly from where was eric it is a terrific situation. i wish it had a little higher

yield. it is just a very good company. let's go to nicholas in california. >> boo yah jim. >> i want you -- to thank you for recommending rollback. >> very good. what's up. >> -- 10% portfolio of this lives docs. >> that one is too speculative. they are just not where you should put your money. they are just not good enough. let's go to sam in massachusetts. >> thank you, jim. what are your thoughts on --. >> i am not a lithium fan. i have been saying no, not for me. that concludes the lightning round. >> coming up to my don't play a guessing game this earnings season. kramer on where to focus your

homework next.

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as i often tell investing club members you shouldn't try to play the earnings gain. don't trade stocks on the basis of what you are acting from the quarterly numbers. it has simply gotten too hard wait until you see what you come up a little part and then make a judgment once you know all the facts case in point, micron reported very good quarter. other inventories are being --. then micron lowered the --. their earnings wouldn't turn up anytime soon while their cash flow would be terrible. we interviewed micron ceo on

squawk on the street and he was abject about the outlook i badgered him about it. earnings would be bad -- counterintuitive. he was straightforward about his outlook. i preston said it would be highly unusual to call bottom and then your neighbors -- numbers actually come down. recently said that was his outlook and that is all there is to it. he knows how to make semi conductors i wouldn't even know what some of his chips do. others are so small i can imagine how they work that is okay. knowing chips is his business. me, i know stocks. i have been trading micron --. when the customers have used up the chips of the channel, you cannot wait for him to tell you to go by. that is not his job. so when the stock was down yesterday, i knew once again here we go, it is the best time to buy micron. it was time to buy bye-bye.

that gain is minimal versus where the stocks come from. for me that means -- almost all of whom have incredibly high- priced targets take them down and then -- have an inventory clearing. that will embolden the analyst to reiterate the by ratings, extra special by, whatever they do. there are plenty of stocks we don't get a chance to do that much after the reports. that is okay. what is not okay is to try to guess the results ahead of time because there is almost never enough information that you can make a clever predict double guess. all the time i hear people talking about buying or selling before the end of the quarter. it is far better to know the patterns of the stocks and know what they should trade on and

know whether the markets first steps might be wrong. there are enough of the stocks around that you don't want to play an ill-fated guessing game. wait for the results, weight for the -- and figure it out from there. i like to say there is always good evening everybody. and tonight for brian sullivan. welcome to this special edition of last call. we are live from washington, d.c. where we are now just 29 hours away from a shutdown of the federal government. and a zero hour approach as we are hitting the story from all angles tonight. this evening we will be joined by former vice president republican presidential candidate mike pence. republican congressman matt gaetz from florida who is the chief instigator of the standoff this week.