to time this stuff, but i like gold and bitcoin now. >> all right. jan, thank you. >> thank you. can we even keep the government rub running? >> we'll find out november 17th. 15 years, 11 months, 10 days. that is the high for the ten-year treasury yield today. we'll see where it goes from here. that's going to do it for us at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. power outage. utility stocks getting rocked. our very own chicago bond king rick santelli is in the house. look at him go, charting the ripple effects in the market. plus, offtarget. another brutal day for the retail giant and what has already been a soul-crushing year. target shares down almost 30% in 2023. can anything stop the slide? and later, what's in a name?

why our traders are all sour about one iconic american brand's new name for its spin-off. they'll corn pop off. what kellogg's did today. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start with the unstoppable rise in rates. 4.7% for the first time in 16 years. it hasn't closed above that level since august 2007. longer term bonds rallying, with the 30-year hitting its highest since 2010. the move taking a hit on rate-sensitive stocks. look at the utility sector, seeing its biggest drop in three years, falling to levels last seen in june 2020. aea, nisource leading the losses. can rates keep going higher from here? what impact can they have on the markets? today was sort of -- guy? >> meh? it's actually -- today was

actually impressive from the markets. again, given the fact that the s&p rallied back, closed unchanged. you have to give it credit. to answer your questions, i think rates can continue to grind higher. i think what could take rates lower is a precipitous selloff in the stock market. as a matter of fact, one of the only reasons they can go lower is if there's a selloff. 4.7 in the ten-year is not good. by the way, kudos bill ackman. i can't believe i said that, but good for him. >> why? >> in early august, he said short bonds. he looked like he rang the bell for about a week and here they are at 4.7. good for him. >> so, twos, tens now 44 inverted, so, we continue to see the steepening in the yield curve. i remember chris verrone was on the desk. a lot of people pointed this was actually a really bearish sign and the next leg of where it could go. you can make an argument this is the kind of bearish steepening that actually is what you might see when the economy's doing better. the -- when you see the short end coming in and creating that kind of steepening, it means the

economy, i think people pricing in lower rates. e we had some information from the boj, we got some rhetoric. international bond yields has something to do with what's going on here. i think our federal reserve, in addition to not buying is actually selling her. and i think there's a lot of different issues here. it's interesting. i would have thought that last week going into the weekend and the government shutdown that the bond market was playing some games a little bit with that. if anything, it says no. unless you believe that bond yields moving higher is people really believing there's more of a fiscal deficit on the horizon and ratings agencies. i'll say, the equal weighed s&p is now down 1% on the year. it's significantly underperformed the s&p and in fact it's at an svb low right now, if you look at where it's kind of moved back to. we talk about this all the time. however, the leadership that this market has gotten from the big megacaps is something that will continue to be that which determines. and apple traded great today. >> i thought the market traded

horribly today. the s&p closed flat on the day, if you think about where the futures were last night based on the reaction to the news about the averted shutdown, but they gave it all back very quickly. yeah, they came back at the end of the day. they came back because of the flight to quality. it's into the magnificent seven. and this is what we've seen since the regional banking crisis in march or so. so, that trade continues to stay very concentrated. we are seeing some deceleration in the fundamentals of those companies. that's what was evident to me in the q-2 reports and q-3 guidance. why many of those stocks sold off at least 10% from their highs preearningsish or so. broke outtrends that have been in place since late last year or early this year. again, i can't put too fine a point on this. this is holding up the market. one of my favorite bears over at jpmorgan, he's highlighting this morning saying that a lot of the talk about soft landing, which is consensus right now, it is built into the s&p up 12% on the year, the nasdaq, up 30% on the

year, but it's the same things that were being talked about in '07. it was a resilient consumer, it was a good jobs setup. it was a whole host of things that really mirror what we're talking about right now. and i just kind of feel like what we're seeing under the hood of the stock market points to something that's very different. >> if there's one thing that is markets have done this year, that is go against consensus. marco's going to be us with on thursday, by the way. we want to take a break here. more layoffs at ford. phil? >> melissa, we are looking at 330 employees at ford who will be laid off, either starting on september 30th, they were laid off, or on october 2nd, which would be tomorrow. these are employees who are at the chicago stamping plant or at the lima, ohio, engine facility. the reason why? parts are not needed since the chicago final assembly plant is on strike. and that's the plant where they build the explorers, as well as the lincoln aviator.

when you look at those two facilities, doesn't sound like a huge amount of jobs, 330, but this is now 930 altogether that ford's had to lay off between these two facilities as well as the wayne final assembly plant after the strike was called there two weeks ago. and this is a case where ford is saying, we have to lay these employees off because the parts that they would normally make that would go into production of a particular facility, they're not needed, because that facility is on strike right now. so, another 330 jobs where the employees are laid off at ford. melissa, back to you. >> phil, thank you. phil lebeau. and of course, ripple effects. you don't need parts, you don't need stuff that make the parts, like steel and met al. >> this just seems very political. trying to foment dissent. we're getting hit, because of this, is this really what we want? i mean -- it doesn't bode for a quick resolution, i don't think, this rachets up the pressure. it's -- that's disappointing.

but back to the question about the markets, i thought the markets actually did do pretty well, considering, and i think that this move is obviously been enormous, but they've told us this for a really, really long time, and it's just taking awhile to sort of funnel through the markets. it's not a crazy, historic rate. i think we have to get used to it. that's pain eful. i'm always long. i'm staying long. >> i just, again, i get back to the market we have here, and so, if leadership comes from the megacaps and from the semiconductors, and i look at the semiconductors that are up 4.9% in the last seven trading days, relative to the s&p, and i look at the qs that are up 3% from those mid-august lows, relative to the s&p, and by the way, qs are not far away from making a relative all-time high from the s&p. until that really breaks down, market's not going to break down. i realize the equal weighed s&p is something that's very meaningful for market bred, all the things that we talk about,

we don't see it. you're right, dan, in that i think it goes back to the megacap techs. >> is tesla in the mag seven? >> you can put it in if you want. >> yeah. >> okay, so, today, they just released their q-3 deliveries. they're not good. their fundamentals are -- >> stock was up. >> i understand. but those sorts of relationships only last for so long. >> you're not buying the, they were down because of retooling and the -- >> no. >> expected down -- >> i don't want to die on the hill of tesla. >> what i'm saying is, what was -- what was evident from microsoft and apple's earnings, you know what i mean? it was evident that some of the pull forward, the enthusiasm about those stocks trading at the levels they were trading are not commence rate with their fundamentals. and those stocks have sold off. what i'm saying, at some point in the not so distant future, you are going to see correlations go to this number, to one. and then those stocks join the party. so, all that relative stuff, that smh is a joke.

nvidia up 200% -- >> it's not a joke. it's been leading the market. >> it's because of nvidia. >> it's 23% of the smh. >> okay. >> i'm just saying. some of them are not keeping up -- >> it's one of the biggest companies in the world. you can't call that a joke and you can't -- are we split screen? just like that. >> we haven't done this in awhile. put it up. >> i know, and -- i'd say this about tesla, who i don't want to defend, i don't want to go buy the stock, but the auto strike and everything we just heard from ford and everything we're hearing about these companies that can't make money in ev, and tesla, who wasn't making money for a long time and telling us they were, i think, i don't know, maybe, the bottom line here is, the market that we have is one where we were expecting triple qs to fall apaurt, and the nasdaq 100 right now is close to making a relative high. >> are you putting new money to -- >> we're not asking me. i'm looking at the market. >> he has money in the market. >> absolutely. >> that's a bunch of crap.

>> come on. >> we all have it in the market. >> what i'm saying right here, right now, at 4300, the s&p -- >> mcdonald's is getting interesting, starbucks, staples. >> you're talking about stuff that has acted horribly over the last few months. do we always want to -- >> the qs have acted amazingly for the last nine months. >> i'm feeling like justin fields in the second half of that game yesterday here. >> i actually want to take issue with what you said about second quarter earnings for google and meta. they were outstanding. >> google and meta are two different companies. >> than each other than -- >> well, if you want to throw them in -- this is the post -- >> they are very much in the -- >> magnificent seven. >> they were trading different for different reasons is. to me, google, if we have this a.i. virus that infected the trillion dollar names, google was on the back side of that. they were actually underperforming those other peers. so, to me, meta was down 78% or something like that in 2022, so, up 100% is just a reset of -- >> i'm just talking about the

third quarter. what happened when they announced the second quarter earnings, you said they didn't do well. >> i didn't say those names. >> we've got a very special guest here that we -- you asked him a question, are you putting new money to work. are you shorting the markets? >> yes. but i made a mistake. last week, i said i'm long puts in the qqq. i made a mistake. i do make a lot of mistakes. the s&p was the trade. it wasn't the qqq, because if you want to focus on the last battle, it is going to be in that magnificent seven. i continue to do that -- >> do you want to be short the market when the qs are going higher? >> it depends the reasons. to me, this goes back to 2007, okay? like, at that time, the same thing that maher coe is saying, the last time the ten-year was right here, the con sensus was soft landing. and what i'm looking at under the hood, when i'm looking at banks, industrials, transports, when i'm looking at energy in the last week or so, it does not speak for an economy that's about to inflect higher. >> i'm not talking about the economy, though. >> i don't think anybody is saying the economy.

>> the market is a discounting mechanism. the whole thing is being rucked by seven stocks right now. >> and what i'm saying is, i'm not telling you that i think the market is going to go a lot higher, though there are key levels i can't wait to hear about later in the show, but i'm not going to fight a market where the semis and the qs , until they really break down -- >> a really good-looking guy with an easel and a pen, we should probably go to him. >> oh, yeah, there he is. >> oh! >> more on where rates are going this year, the one and only rick santelli. >> clap him in. >> royalty. >> world famous'sle easel. >> i don't have all my equipment, i couldn't do a really pretty chart. i would like to say a few things. i personally always find anniversary dates very key. and i can't help thinking about september of '81 when we had the all-time high closing yield just shy of 16%. so, what i'm talking about here might be dancing between the rain drops. you never want to go against

market that is burning to the upside. but you might want to give it a pause if it looks like it's going to back away, but in the grand scheme of things, i think rates are going higher. let's go to the charts. not my best work, but high/low, perpendicular mid-point. one of those points is the all-time low closing yield at a half of one percent. you find that midpoint, you draw a perpendicular line. and what you find is, it just keeps you on the straight and narrow. those are very key, more important, the spike levels are, whether it's a key high or bottom, those make it work that much better. now, this chart is really offscale. when you are doing these charts, you have to use it on rhythmic paper. this is just a rough gauge. but there is your near 16%, sep in '81 for your anniversary date. and the whole point in this chart is, we have a lot of potential room to run to the upside. so, if somebody asks me and held a gun to my head, say, listen,

the worst case scenario, treasury rates going to go, ten-year, i'd say in seven years you should be able to see 13 1/2, 14%. >> serious? >> not saying we get there, but i really want to dress, you do not want to jump in front of this right now, but if this week closes under 4.75% and the high yield remains in the 4.60s, you buy the market looking for a bit of a retracement to get down to 4.25 to 4.32. >> so, you buy tlt below those levels. bet on yields are going to go down in the short-term, otherwise, look for -- why are rates going higher? because the economy is gang busters? >> tyler, everybody clap for tyler. he brought up today, a great chicagoan, milton friedman, when he did, one of my 50-year veterans from the trading floor called me and said, boy, e's spot on. i had many meetings with milton. if you want to know where inflation is taking the markets

and why, just look at government spending. the indivigilantes have new hor and they're riding and i really do think that is the answer. we are spending too much. we are not learning to cut back, as a matter of fact, i think we're out of control as we approach a $2 trillion deficit and this is the market's way to get washington's attention. >> that is always the case, though, hasn't it, to some degree? >> no. qe. qe changed everything. >> right, so, do you think that the fed, whoever the fed may be within the next ten years, is actually going allow a rate that is above 13%? >> and will they be independent? >> they are running out of little tricks to pull out of their bag, and in my opinion, the quantitative easing removed many signals in the market that now it's trying to put back in place, and they could do as they wish. if they keep tinkering with this, the problem is, we have too many large economies that are going to be in the same boat. and who is going to buy this paper? >> right. >> so, the presumption here, you

think the fed put is done and it requires the discipline for the fed to stay the course, and i agree, i'm a student of history probably less so than you, but i think all the way back to the first shenanigans, i think of long-term capital and the asian financial crisis, and that's many monetary accommodation went out of control, and it was 1997-98. boj, the biggest wild card here, and i heard over the weekend stuff that told me, ycc is done, and i think that's a slingshot to u.s. yields higher. >> oh, absolutely. and the bank of japan could actually pull the plug that drains the water on everybody's bathtub. they have no idea how they could be the catalyst. they could be that one ping-pong ball you throw in a room with a bunch of mouse traps with other ping-pong balls and all of a sudden, things start flying. >> mouse traps and ping-pong balls. >> let me ask you, rick, let's say rates just keep going up, so much they crush the economy, right? and so, then do we start to see

rates really come back or do you see stagflation and -- >> i think guy hit part of it, 1987, when we were in the pits, what we learned was, when equities get really ugly, you see the treasury complex start to do better. i think the signals being distorted has changed that to some extent and it's going to have to get much uglier to get the attention of the bond market. it's going to come to the rescue late in the game. >> karen mentioned it, we've had rates at these levels before, which i totally agree with. it's a rate of change thing, though. 15 years of being conditionedly kwidty, zero interest rates. people are not prepared for what we've seen over the last 18 months. >> i think that when many look at the markets and they scratch their heads, they just don't understand that the fed held the beach ball under water for so long, basically a decade of zero that shouldn't have been at zero, that ultimately, the force

that this thing's popping out i think is justified. >> if it -- if it pops to 13 -- if the trajectory is very steep, does that imply that the bounce-back is going to be steep, as well? >> absolutely. absolutely. the -- one-third or two-thirds retracement on some of those numbers should be every bit as aggressive. that's why i think we're going to get a pause and i think we're going to consolidate here, but i urge people not to try to pick tops in yields. you can dance between the rain drops a bit. >> okay, but again, your big call tonight sounds like north of 13% in the next -- >> that's the grand scheme of things, yes. when i look at the long-term monthly charts, that's what i see. >> rick, great to have you. >> and your easel. >> thank you, thank you for being so nice. >> he should sign these -- >> yes. >> and we -- i'm not even kidding around. >> time capsule. >> you think i'm messing around. >> we'll donate the money for -- >> hold on. he made a point, i was in his office in the cme in september and he has a treasure trove of

these things. and i know you are trying to say that this is not your best stuff -- there's some good stuff in there, there's different colors, all scaled. it was really beautiful. >> i love rhythmic paper and i overlay it on celophane so they're really accurate. >> we are lucky to have rick. his expertise. he's a drexel guy like i was back in the day, but he's forgotten more about the bond market than -- they talk about who is this bond king person -- >> i don't know. >> that's the bond king right there. >> and the bond markets are always right. the bond markets are always right. and they're always ahead of the equity maeshgts. we talk about the economy, but equities sometimes really do whistle past that graveyard. >> absolutely. i think those days are going to be behind us. >> rick, thank you. rick santelli. 13.5%. long-term call, but that would be mind blowing for a whole generation who has never seen rates much higher from here. >> one of the things rick is saying, don't get in the way of -- we had four decades of

downward pressure in yield compression, a lot of different reasons for it, china, globalization, technology. but if you look -- i would make the argument, look at the chart of the two-year going back ten years. we started moving higher. if you take out covid, which i think you can for this exercise, rates have been moving higher at the short end for ten years. coming up, target slashed. the retailer dropping to three-year lows on one big analyst call and with stores closing ahead of the holidays, will the company miss the bulls eye? details next. plus, a financial fork in the road. what will rising rates mean for the sector? the names our traders are watching, straight ahead. don't go anywhere, "ston" fa mey is back in two.

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we want to go. but, our cars can't take us e with unpaid tolls. vehicles with overdue, unpaid tolls may not be able to renew their registration until outstanding balances are paid. payment assistance is available. visit bayareafastrak.org/ase so go pay your unpaid tolls y and keep your wheels on the ! welcome back to "fast money." expect more, pay less. that's exactly what investors are doing today, as shares of target sink to a three-year low. bank of america cutting the retailer's price target to 120 from 135 after the company said it was closing nine stores in major cities due to violence and organized theft. the stock underperforming walmart by 40 percentage points so far this year. karen -- >> yeah. >> what's wrong with target? >> well, a lot, apparently.

but i think, you know, we've seen that -- we talk about the consumer being stretched, and when they do spend, as we see it, walmart, costco, something like that, it's on, you know, groceries and it's on gasoline and what target really does is, they have a much better margin in things like home goods, app apparel, things like that. that mix has not been good. we talk about the shrinkage issue. closing the nine stores, it's sad for a lot of reasons, not just to target, to those communities, it's really sad. i don't think that will really make a difference to target, but they are kind of at the wrong space. they haven't gotten their mojo back. the multiple reflects that. i'm long target, which is the wrong thing, i'm long walmart, which has worked, but i have this target/walmart trade, which just continues to get wider. and i think it's too wide. >> hsbc initiated target with a hold couple weeks ago. product mix. they're in no man's land in this environment. and that is the wrong place to

be. yeah, maybe they figured out their inventory situation, problem is, nobody wants their inventory they currently have. they just really -- a lot of this is target-specific. you can't say that entirely, because look at dollar gen and dollar tree and -- those stocks are getting obliterated, as well. they're on the wrong side of this equation. costco, on the flip side, 52-week high-ish today. that's what's going on. but you have to ask the question, what does that mean for the consumer? all right, there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. what's bubbling in the banks? our traders are eyeing two different tales. so, which names are worth the deposit? and which ones are a financial flop? plus, the consumer in focus. as staples hit five-year lows. what's weighing on the sector? and will the pain last into the holiday season? you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." the financials falling to kick off the week as the ten-year treasury yield surges back to its highest levels in 16 years. bank of america, goldman sachs, morgan stanley, wells fargo and citi all in the red today. you've been watching bank of america, dan. >> the new one-year closing low. it was trading a little lower, maybe 1%, 2% or so bad in march. and again, it's not an indictment of the bank, it's what investors feel like is lurking on their balance sheet. so, if in march, this rise in rates, you know, run in deposits and this mark to market with held to maturity securities, this was a mention in "the wall street journal" today, the first time i've seen that in awhile,

what lies in these balance sheets. these companies are having to pay more to keepdeposits there, right? and so, really, if there's a run on deposits, you have a situation like we had in march, and that would actually cause these banks to take the losses. while the mark to market, find, you can maybe explain that away, but what did rick santelli just tell us about rates? and if you don't have profit centers in other parts of your businesses and you have, you know, rising reserves for rising delinquencies, you don't have, you know, a lot of investment banking activities, you're not writing a lot of new mortgages and stuff like that, it just seems like a really difficult environment right now for these money center banks. >> i think it is, too, but we've really left them to a place where we priced in a fair amount of credit concerns. you know, i -- look, i'm long jpmorgan, i'm long bank of america in the money center bank. was looking at the charts of goldman sachs, we know the noise around goldman sachs. we talk about itz. it's been a difficult

environment for investment banking. that chart, back to -- kuexcuse me, june '22, it's a small uptrend. but the noise that's been worked in is very high. and they've indicated, there was a cfo sitdown with jpmorgan recently that they're on track. if they are on track, i think the stock is on track. >> the issue for bank of america, the held to maturity portfolio, as you mentioned, but that really sort of underscores the differences between brian moynihan's leadership versus others in the space that don't have that problem, that -- >> specifically thinking of jamie dimon, let's say? >> well, i was going to let you -- >> i think jpmorgan did an outstanding job. it's egg on the face of bank of america that they really didn't do such a good job. it's less surprising in an svb -- first republic, even, that was -- they did a terrible job and took them out of business and jpmorgan was in a

business to be the beneficiary of that. and so, it's not an easy of rising rates being a problem for them, i think the net interest margin is going to rise. i think they've just done an outstanding job. i think it's cheap. i've owned it. >> september master trust data in a couple weeks from now for september. in august, they were up, i think delinquencies were up 1.25%, up from 88 basis points a year ago. this is -- it doesn't sound like a big deal, it's a big deal. that's headed in the wrong direction right now. coming up, warning signs out of the staples sector. mary anne bartel will join us to lay out her take on what she expects going into the holiday season. that interview when "fast money" returns. cyber t

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks kicking off october with a bit of a whimper. ev makers reporting q-3 production deliveries this morning. tesla missing estimates, but delivering more than 435,000

vehicles. the company sticking with its 2023 target of 1.8 million vehicles. and rivian beating expectations, delivering more than 15,000 vehicles in the quarter. that's up 23% from the previous quarter. the company saying it remains on track to produce 52,000 evs in 2023. and a check on one of the most recent entrants to the market. instacart down another 9% today, as the stock falls further from its ipo price of 30 bucks a share. turning now to consumer staples, is the sector sending a warning signal? one of the traders flagging its approaching five-year low. tim, getting interesting here? >> it is getting interesting. i think the fundamentals around a lot of the names means that multiple is cheapening up and it's 20% cheaper. a 15% move in the staples index or whatever you're tracking, whether it's xlp or what not, is a major, major move. look at general miles, down 30%. some of this is the inflationary dynamics that allowed them the pricing power. i don't think they have. they're running into it.

you're starting to see the folks, including general mills, start to see competitive changes and landscape get more aggressive, but margins starting to deteriorate. the downgrade has been on multiples. but i think relative to the s&p, this is an environment many at some point these names should be defe defensive. it's not time yet, but getting close. >> like when? when the multiples turn, how many turns? >> i think when you get down to that five-year low. on the charts on a relative basis, it tells you something. on the multiples, when you start to be 11, 12 times instead of 13, 14 times, you start to get where they're cheap relative to history. right now, they're in line with history after rerating above history. >> karen, do you see value here? >> yes, i think tim's point is a really good one. things don't stop at fair value. the pendulum continues to swing. so, i think what he's saying makes sense. all right, for more on what this could mean for the market, let's bring in mary ann bartels. welcome back to the show. great to see you. >> thank you for having me. >> what do you think of staples?

>> they're not trading well at all. which is really interesting, because normally, your defensive sectors trade really well when you're getting a pull-back. and they're not trading well at all. really what's trading well is the leadership, you know, it's the tech, com services part of the market that's holding up the best, which items me this is just a correction. >> you like semis, you like the big cap tech? >> i do. i do. and it -- it's hard, because i'm in the business for 40 years, i've studied the history of the markets and when you get a very concentrated market, that's a warning sign, but if you really look at the whole structure of the s&p, it's a problem across the whole sector. the other thing is, we don't have as many stocks that used to trade. we've lost, like, 2,000 stocks. and you are really starting to see private equity really play a pivotal role in actually funding companies. so, the whole structure of the market has shifted since 1985,

when i first came into the business. >> mary, great to have you here on our new set. >> it's fabulous. >> so, let me ask you, what would make you change your mind, sticking with the ones that have worked, the tech, the communication services, is it valuation or some sort of structural change in the market or rates? >> i think the first sign would be technical. you probably all know i spent part of my career as a technician. i think the first signs would actually come in the relative performance. and what a lot of people don't realize, the s&p 500 technology sector actually hit an all-time new relative high back in july. if that leadership was to start shifting, that would be my warning sign. everybody talks about valuation, but valuation is not a very good timing tool. in fact, when i'm looking at the overall pe of the market, in another life, i was a quan. we normally don't talk about quantitative measures, they are

things -- >> look at guy's face right now. he's -- >> and when you look at those -- that kind of matrix on a pe, the markets are actually cheap. and that was something that was really shocking to me. so, i don't think the markets are as expensive as they appear to be. and i think we could go into a super-cycle for growth stocks. that's one of the things that i'm monitoring. and if we do go into a super-cycle for growth stocks, you're going to see pe levels that will curl your toes. we're not even there yet. >> that sounds painful, by the way. i mean, having broken a few myself. so, great to have you. pra proctor & gamble, costco, both stocks have done okay. coca-cola and pepsi, two of the fop four, have rolled over. i think it's because margin compression. that has to be a concern, as tim said before, they can no longer pass on their cost to the consumer. >> now here's something else interesting. i was looking at margins. just based on the s&p 500, and

there's something that's called the rate of change, but then there's something called the rate of change, the momentum or the second difl ferential, prof margins are starting to improve. we had pmi manufacturing numbers, they look like they're bottoming. so i'm looking for, what are we not talking about? well, what if we are having a re-acceleration in the economy? and that would get to rick's point that rates still have to back up. >> so, you're calling for a real pickup in the economy, a super-cycle for growth stocks. >> didn't we just have that? >> no. >> are you lonely? >> i'm very lonely -- i'm in the lonely camp. definitely in the lonely camp. >> where are rates during this whole super-cycle? >> so, i want -- when rick was on earlier, he talked about rates going to 13.5%. okay, so, when you look at the cycle of interest rates, they usually going 20 to 30 years. we ended a 40-year cycle.

and we are now in a total new regime for interest rates. and what we've been telling giants is that, you will see rates at least a 10% in your lifetime. this is about timing. i think the ten-year gets up to about the 5% area and backs off. i think twos don't go up too much more. you don't want to time it until you actually see it peak. i thought rates were peaking a couple of months ago and i was wrong, so, i agree with rick, it's really kind of hard to time. but i do think the cycle for interest rates over the next 15, 20 years, is higher. >> wow. i think you're, like, the biggest bull out there we've come across. thank you for coming by. great to see you. >> thank you. >> mary ann bartels of sanctuary wealth. what do you think, dan? >> well, i'm on the other side of it. for 18 months, the conference board of u.s. leading indicators has been going lower every month. month over month. if you look at everything that we've just talked about here, we talk about yields that, you

know, rick just said could go double digits, not seen in my lifetime or at least in my adult lifetime. we have crude oil at 90, we have the u.s. dollar index at 107. i don't see any scenario where profit margins are going to start improving right now, especially when you consider the fact that i think the unemployment rate only has one place to go, and that is up right now, we're seeing consumer credit, people's credit carts at levels we have not seen in a long time. so, again, i'm not calling for a deep, deep recession, but all the stuff that we talked about, the pain that's happening in the bond market right now, is a reaction to a lot of, you know, behavior that was kicking lots of cans down the road, and i feel like sooner or later, i mean, the chickens are going to come home to roost. the stock market that we have right now, in the banks, the industrials, the staples, the transports, it goes on and on. it's not good. >> but that list has been not good -- >> it just accelerated to the

downside. >> like you, probably talking about leading indicators being awful, and even though we had a good ism manufacturing number today, it doesn't change, i think manufacturing stays in contraction, so -- i just think that the market that i have is the one that i have to trade. and i think at this point, until i see that breakdown on qs and semis, i think 4200 on the s&p might be a level we can get some bounce. coming up, what went wrong at ftx? a new cnbc documentary premiering today. more on that ahead. plus, kellogg's snack and cereal businesses started trading at separate companies and investors didn't like that split. why is wall street crunchy about these stocks? the trades and more when "fast money" returns . the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf

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ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. welcome back to "fast money." a shakeup in the grocery aisles. kellogg's completing the spin-off of its cereal university. the remaining snack brands are called kellanova. both stocks were down today. the ceo was on cnbc this morning, asking what the popularity of weight loss drugs will mean for its company.

>> it is way too early and very p premature to talk about. we don't know the penetration that these drugs will get, we don't know longitude nally what happens with consumer behavior. we know what people are saying they're doing in terms of, you know, changing their -- their diets and so forth, but you know, it's just way too early to tell. >> kellanova includes pringles, pop tarts. so, kellanova. >> doesn't work. i mean -- >> awful. >> rolls off the tongue. >> remember, tim can speak to this, because he actually -- i mean, everybody loved -- >> unless they translated to russian. >> i tell you, that's spicy. that's some spicy stuff. >> it's just not working for me. i love the companies. i don't know -- you know who we should have on here, because we had him on last summer, jim osmond talks about the spinoffs and the volume that's unlocked. clearly, the market didn't like this today.

with that said, special k is my cereal of choice and that's a kellogg's brand. >> with the strawberries. >> no, i put my own strawberries in. and nobody cares, i know, the more you know. but the special k with strawberries, the flakes are different, they have to coat them in something. >> they're sweetened. >> no good. you want regular special k and get the freeze-dried strawberries. >> people want snacks, they don't want cereal. >> really? >> yeah, i think that's what the markets -- >> right. >> that's the general thinking. you want to be in snack foods. >> there's a higher multiple -- higher growth, higher multiple associated with that. one of the reasons that pepsi, i think, has outperformed coca-cola, but i just don't think you can price up a bag of cheetos anymore. and -- >> $6.99 in new york. >> seriously. i think that's part of what we're talking about in the staples space. it's less about -- people are always going to want a bag of cheetos. i will. coming up, the collapse of

ftx. telling their side of the story in a new cnbc digital documentary. we'll bring you the preview next. "fast money" is back in two. this is spring semester at fairfield-suisun unified. they switched to google tools for education because there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook.

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nice footwork. it's possible. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "fast money." a new digital documentary debuting today on cnbc.com, the

collapse of ftx. insiders tell all. here's anthony scaramucci telling kate rooney about seeing ftx owner sam bankman-fried just before the collapse. >> i went to the bahamas on november 8th. i flew down there. sam seemed sort of disassociated, like a scene in private ryan where, you know, the battle's happening, somebody loses his arm and they're actually holding their own arm in their hands. he was having a hard time processing this was happening to him as quickly as it was happening. i said, okay, there's a huge problem here. i thought he was the mark zuckerberg of crypto. is he now the bernie madoff of crypto? >> what did due diligence look like? >> went through a standard checklist of due diligence. questionnaire, background checks, accounting, financial analysis, he had everything. i mean, you don't dupe 25 of the world's most sophisticated venture capitalists if you're

not going through the list, you know? >> so, he had all the paperwork that any high profile, experienced investor would really look to? >> yes, he did. there was no smoke in any corner of the business. >> you can catch the full documentary on cnbc.com. kate rooney is here on set with a closer look. and of course, this is just before the trial begins, kate, so, everybody's looking back, thinking, how could this have happened? you talk to a lot of the insiders here what was sort of the common thread? >> so, the common thread was that, like anthony scare mu chi described, they didn't see any smoke in any corner of the business. to, bret harrison was another top executive there, he ran the u.s. business, he quit about two months before the collapse, and he said he had no idea and he really was running the entire u.s. business. he claimed he knew nothing, he said all the financials looked legit to him and that he had no reason to question it. sam bankman-fried was testifying in front of congress it was a

fast-moving, high-growth company, so, he said, i never thought to stop and question the financials. here we are a year later and obv obviously, hindsight, not the right move. but you did hear that pretty consistently, that some of the top executives were not pushing back on sam. >> it had the pa tina of legitimacy because all the investors had gotten in and you sort of wonder, you know, did it get to a point where, that guy isn't in and so therefore i'm just going to go in and i don't need to look at -- as time went on and those financials had some smoke in them. >> you did get that herd mentality. and you heard it from retail investors. we had a couple individual investors that said, that was one of the reasons they got in, as well. they said it gave it this veil of legitimacy. you could see a scenario where you get some of the top names in there and you have also the fomo effect of, well, you have to move quickly, you have to do a deal, we're not raising again, and you want to be in on the hottest deal. so, it does speak to some of the psychology in venture capital,

as well. >> what's sort of the ancillary knockoff effect -- tom brady got $55 million paid, so, what's the knockoff? what -- how do they wind up in all of this noise? because there's still some -- there's still some runway ahead for these guys and gals. >> yeah, the celebrities, there's class action lawsuits now, they are being blamed for some of this, and investors, some of those we talked to, said, that was the reason they got in. they saw the super bowl ad, they saw tom brady endorsing sam bankman-fried, and there are implications for the celebrity class. and then the private investors trying to scrape their money back, competing with your average retail investor, who is waiting in line. and it will take years before any see any money. but one we interviewed said there's a bankruptcy exchange, where you can get 11 cents on the dollar, that's what he's doing. and all of them still in faith in crypto. it's not dented their optimism for the industry. >> well, that's what's so shocking, is that the depths of crypto winter have passed and

it's emerged, everybody thought that was going to be the death knell. >> you feel the sense of optimism, the downfall last year -- the absolute optimist in the industry would say that because it's made it through this, it can survive anything. if they can survive ftx, the wipeout of leverage, the damage that did to the entire market, it's probably here to stay, but of course, very much crypto optimistic take on it, but you are seeing it emerge and bitcoin has not been that volatile lately, so -- >> it's been a rock. >> yeah. >> kate, thank you. good to see you. up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim, do you know your final trade? >> absolutely. constellation brands. there's one that has some pricing power. we've seen consolidation in beer. >> karen? >> yes. one i've been waiting to buy, finally time. nike.

>> dan? >> yeah, if rick santelli is right and the ten-year goes back to 4.25, that tlt to buy. >> huge guests tonight. unbelievable. >> jpmorgan focus list, mel. >> thank you for watching "fast money." see you back here my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. most stocks simply cannot withstand th