stock market and by the way, crazy stuff and dysfunction in washington, whether it's 2011 with the debt downgrade, the tarp vote that went down first, that happens when markets are already stressed. they don't cause the real stress in markets. usually they're a clearing event. >> yeah. key context there. mike, thank you. and of course kevin mccarthy out as speaker of the house. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. bonds in turmoil. the 30-year yield roaring higher, within a whisper of 5%. the two and ten-year rates surging higher, too. could china and the fed be to blame for what is happening with the bond market? plus, sticker shock. reports that netflix is planning to hike prices one a hollywood strike is over. could this set off a wave of price spikes across streaming universe? and later, the breakdown on the safety trade. weighty losses of late.

and a rocket headed in the wrong direction. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerfinerman nathan, and mike khouw. we start off with breaking news, the vote in d.c. to vote kevin mccarthy out of the speakership. emily has the latest. >> yes, kevin mccarthy was ousted as speaker of the house. the house current lip has no speaker. that chair is vacant. there is an acting speaker, but they're not someone who can actually move legislation, continue the work of the house, and continue the progress that congress is trying to make on a number of different bills. now, mind you, a lot of republicans still support mccarthy, one of the congressmen came out and thought that he thought, at least 19d 0 republicans still back mccarthy for speaker. but the fact of the matter is, republicans had such a small majority that only eight republicans voting to ougs mccarthy were able to do it. i just spoke with congressman matt gaetz, he just left

congress, and he said that as far as who is next, he didn't really have a nay. he mentioned steve scalise last night, i asked him about that, he said that tom emmer, mccarthy's number three could be good. so, a lot of questions as to who, if anyone, republicans are going to be solidifying behind. and a huge question to see how long this actually lasts, because until a new speaker is named, the house really cannot do its most important work of passing bills and actually legislating. so, a lot of questions here on capitol hill, lots of concerns, and lots of just unknowns about what the next day, the next week, the next month will actually look like. >> congress rarely moves very quickly on anything, emily, so, what do you think the timeline will be for this process? >> well, i know that a lot of members do want to get things moving and back on track as quickly as possible. i think the events of the last 48 hours came as a shock to many of them. i mean, matt gaetz talked about going ahead and bringing forward with this motion to vacate, but i think there were real

questions until last night if he would actually do it. at this point, republicans are going to try to get together, they're going to chat. i wouldn't be surprised if you see votes on speaker before the end of the week, but at this point, it's hard to see how mccarthy gets back to that 218 that he's going to need to become speaker. >> emily wilkins in d.c., thank you. >> thank you. >> interesting kicker to the events of today, a potential breaking point for the markets here, major indices dropping sharply today as rates continue their march higher. the dow seeing its worst day since march and falling back into negative territory for the year. the s&p ending the day just half a percent above its 200-day moving average. the nasdaq saw even bigger losses, down nearly 2%. the selloff coming as treasury yields hit another milestone. ten-year rates touching 4.8%, the highest level in more than 16 years. the 30-year getting within five basis points of 5%. so, will this bond turmoil continue to rock the markets and

to your end, particularly, with some of the uncertainty surrounding what's going on in washington, and the uncertainty about yet another shutdown looming, tim. >> it was an extraordinary day, by any measure, so, the events in washington, we haven't seen this done before, but bank of japan was intervening against the yen this morning. the move in the treasury markets is something that also, i think, people are some what shocked by, and if you think about it, we talked about this, we talked about the supply side, we talked about the dynamics where the fed is actually both issuing a record number of bonds, but when central banks around the world have stopped buying. you have data coming out, and the data is, on some level, i think today's job opening data, which was much stronger than expected. a big increase over july. this is the august data, ahead of a payroll number on friday -- i think there's much to do about nothing. i don't -- there's no way the job market is tightening at this point. there's no way that this information -- i realize this is more concurrent and more quince dent data than say looking at a payroll number which is very much lagging, but i just think

that the market is spooked at the economy is so strong, again, so strong, that the fed doesn't relent here. i think the biggest issue here is, and you almost have to pat the fed on the back, it's as if the market is saying, the fed won't blink. and this is the same fed that people were so critical of, not holding the line on, so -- >> that was the message the fed needed to get across, starting with jackson hole, and that was -- >> the last time. >> the last time, the additional vector of not just how high, but for how long. finally, it seems like the market has snapped into, yes, they are going to be high for a long time. >> yes, and that 50 basis points off the table of next year's they thought would be cuts are gone. so, that was a very strong statement. so, i don't know right now if we're in the, we need some bad news about the economy to help this market, or if that would just be seen as bad news. so, we have -- next week, i think, we're going to get threes, tens and 30-year auctions, we'll see how those go. i don't know if it was the jolt, i don't know if it was the market that was sort of on pins

and needles today because of the threat of the house speaker turmoil, because that did happen last night. i'm a little bit surprised it actually happened, to be honest. doesn't seem like there's a great plan in place, but -- we'll see. didn't know. it was a volatile market for sure, if you are like me and, you know, long equities, it's a difficult day. only thing that worked is hedges, but i'm always, always net long. net losing money for sure, but i don't nope, i'm sticking it out. i do think that -- i want to see earnings, i like when we can look at the economy and earnings and how companies do, that's sort of the kind of tangible data i like to look at. >> that's probably not a bad setup. considering the weakness we have and we're going to go right into bank earnings and they're going to be very depressed, if you think about it. bank of america, citigroup making new multiyear lows today. they are below the levels in march during the regional banking crisis. not the beneficiary of the big regionals that went under and some of the stuff that we've heard from, let's say jpmorgan,

benefits from the deposits they've gotten. if the stork mack market is a disco discounting mechanism, if i'm just looking at my screens right now, okay, i see the xrt, which is retail is down on the year, i see banks that are down on the year. industrials that are flat. materials that are down on the year. i see -- i mean, the list goes on and own. health care is down on the year. >> weighed s&p is down on the year. >> the russell 2,000 small caps are down on the year. all i kind of trying to say here and i've been saying this far little bit. it's not that healthy of a stock market, in my opinion. now, it was okay when we still had that concentration, right, when we were at the highs and now we're almost down 10% in the s&p market cap weighed, because there was all this talk about broadening out. under the hood, we saw some weakening. my point is, like, the lower we go here, as we get towards some technical levels, i know the s&p is very near that 200-day moving average, the uptrend that's been

in place since last october, these are the things you want to keep an eye on. if some of the bigger names in the market that have to do with most of the gains in the broad indices, the microsoft, the apple, we've been talking about this, they have broken down. technically, they are broken, but they are still up a lot because they were up -- >> apple traded well again. >> you're right. >> you're right, by the way, but apple's -- >> where else are you going to go right now, other than, you know, t-bills? you know what i mean? you're going to apple, you're going to microsoft right now. they're finding a little bit of support right now as money is moving out of other sectors. >> the hurdle is going to be very high for that investor to decide, mike, to put that dollar into stocks versus bonds at this point, and the hurdle gets higher and higher each day with rates going higher and higher at this point. >> yeah, well there are some stocks that might behave a little bit more like bonds do or will. we own constellation, which is going to be reporting soon, we own johnson & johnson. you know, these are the kinds of stocks, they're low beta, which

is going to be helpful in a market like this. rising rates are bad for companies that don't generate cash flow now that basically have high duration and high beta, then you sort of have to look for the opposite if you are going to be long stocks. like karen, we have to be long stocks, so, those are the ones we're going to own. and we have picked up a few financials going into earnings, simply because, maybe there's a lot of bad news priced in. we swapped goldman for morgan, simply because i think this additional volatility is probably going to benefit on the trading side more on the asset management side. but i think that's kind of the choices you're going to make. you're looking for the best house on a bad block right now. the stock market's a bad block. >> the bond market's a bad block, too. what's really interesting, people are talking about, isn't it a great time to own bonds? it hasn't been a great time to own a lot of bonds. anybody that extended duration in the last three weeks and told by someone, this is the time, you have to get out there, i think it's fascinating. by the way, my haribo bear index

here, which is now at four gummys on the desk here -- we're at a place where sentiment is really awful. and you have a place here, too, dan's talking about the positioning of the s&p. if you remove the svb chaos of march, this is -- if we go -- we're actually ten bips away from the 200-day. if you traded through the downside on the 200-day tomorrow, would be for the first time, if you remove svb, going all the way back to january, february of '22 this is back when the fed was stepping up, we were getting 75 basis point cuts on the horizon. i'm just telling you this is a place where, if the stock market is breaking down through the 200, we haven't seen that in a year and a half. you can talk about svb, i would make an argument that's isolated. doesn't mean there aren't tensions, but the market itself, the s&p, is measured by the 200-day, holding, not trading through. this is a year and a half. and that gets back to the beginning of this cycle where we

didn't know how aggressive the fed was going to be. >> if terms of the bond volatility that we've seen, because it has been extraordinary. tlt saw a record day on volume. >> yes. >> in terms of shares traded, which is extraordinary to think about. look at our chart of the day. think about the positioning here in the bond market in terms of the wall of issuance we are expecting. who is going to be that buyer? definitely not the fed. and it's not china, and this is -- this is a chart that has been going -- had been making the rounds today. basically said $300 billion in bonds have been sold since 2021, $4 billion just since april of this year by china, and they don't have additional dollars to recycle back into the bond market. and maybe politically if they did, maybe they wouldn't want to. >> well, a couple things to that. i have been short the tlt, i covered another third. i only have a third left, which feels painful to do, but -- to that, who is going to buy them? whoever is shorting into this. we know when they're going to

issue debt. >> so, mel, are you saying they're uninvestable? >> am i saying bonds are -- >> the treasury. >> the whole curve. who is the buyer? like, you know, we did that once, didn't we do that once -- >> we did that on china. chinese equity market. u.s. treasury market? i don't know what you're talking about. >> you had such a great trade on, feels like you're getting piggish. and you mentioned the volume on a very liquid etf. i'm kind of picking at calls in this space right here, because i i have vol is cheap. when you have that vol, the way it's bun moving relative to the way the s&p has been moving, it could set up, like a coil spring in my opinion. >> very bearish out there. >> all right, the latest jitters over surging yields come a day after rick santelli right here on this sat warned about how high he thinks rates could go from here. >> we have a lot of potential room to run to the upside, so, if somebody asks me and held a gun to my head, said listen, the

worst casescenario, ten-year, i'd say in the next seven years, you should see 13.5%. >> wherare you serious? and yes, i did say, are you serious? our next guest believes interest rates could go higher, as well. welcome to new york, jim. you think we see 13%? >> you know, i don't know about 13%, but the larger issue that rick was saying, we're in a secular bear market, it started in august of 2020, there are several more years to go. now, you could have a year or two rally within, in the middle of a second ewe lair bear market in bonds. i'm in that camp. i still think that maybe seven years from today, we're at least 4.5%, 5%, where we are right now, so, there's no real drop in rates and it will probably be higher from there. 13% -- that would take something bad to happen a lot worse than i

anti anticipate. i don't think we're near the end of this move in the bond market. >> okay, so, in the immediate term, how high can we go before we settle into that 4.5% range or so, which sounds like you are saying will be the new normal for the ten-year yield. >> yeah, because i think 4.5% is kind of like fair value. and we're just a little bit above fair value right now. i think what you're seeing in the bond market is a capitulation of good old fashion ed -- where basically, most of the year, bond investors have been long, been trying to argue why we're going to have a recession, why there's going to be a rally, and have been getting their brains beat in and they can't take it anymore, and i think what really kicked this one off was september 20th, the fed meeting. what would help a bond rally, if you want the bonds to rally, fed come out hawkish. they're going to raise rates a lot more, they're going to be more vigilant about inflation. if they're done, and the market senses that there's still some inflation left, they don't want to touch bonds. and that's what has been killing

the bond market. so, the more the fed talks about being done, waiting, assessing how all the rate hikes they've done, the more i think they're making it worse. and you could see an overshoot through five in the next couple of weeks, but then, i think we might set up, you know, a high that could last for a little time. >> do you think the fed is watching the volatility in the bond market and do you think the fed cares? >> i don't think they care yet, because -- yes, of course they're watching the volatility in the bond market, but they're asking the question, is it retarding the company? jay powell got it yesterday about some small business owners from inflation. they are hearing it from that end, but not necessarily enough that they're considering changing policy. >> jim, how about energy prices? you think this is playing into it, it's a bit ironic, bau we strip out food and energy from our inflation numbers. or the fed seems to.

i'm of the view, we're in a super cycle, i'm of the view there are structural reasons why energy prices stay higher. therefore, i don't think you get relief any time soon from that. >> exactly. i'm in a similar type of view that energy prices are going to go higher. what that means is, we'll have more year over year and cpi inflation. does that mean the fed is going to raise rates? no. but let's go back to yesterday when jay powell heard it about inflation. if higher gasoline prices, higher energy prices, say push inflation back to 4%, they can't talk about easing next year. >> yeah. >> in the face of 4%. so, what higher energy prices do is, they kill the potential for rate cuts next year, maybe they don't add rate hikes this year or later, you know, in the winter. >> so, why is there talk from bostick today about a cut at the end of 2024, do you think? that goes in the face of what the fed wants to telegraph. >> right. i think that's a mistake on their part, because they're operating under this assumption

that 2% inflation is still atenaa attainable and coming, and the market is maybe towards 3%, 4% inflation. but it gets back to what is fair value on interest rates. and we might not be that far above fair value. what they'd be better off arguing is, don't just say, well, we're very close to 2%. explain to us why you think we're going to go back to that pre-covid or pre-pandemic level of 2% inflation, because i think a lot of people in the market are really starting to question whether that's going to happen. >> so, jim, if they do settle at a higher inflationary -- they don't have to settle it, it just has to exist for all the reasons that tim just mentioned, maybe it's energy prices. but the economy will weaken, right? and if we do have this stagflationary environment, if we're looking at the s&p 500 trading at 18 times which is the ten-year average, versus a period where interest rates were far lower throughout that sort

of thing, don't you think equities are a little mispriced? this is not a place that we've been in a very long time, and so, i just feel like the equity market is not really woken up to what a new reality might be. >> well, it's waking up to it. the drawdown in the stock market now is the largest we've seen since we hit the bottom in october of last year. but i do think you're right, there is an alternative. the alternative, let's start with a 5.5% money market rate. university of chicago's done long-term studies, long-term, the stock market will give you 9%. i give you two-thirds of that, with almost no risk. that is an option. so now, we are going to have to see the stock market compete with it. and you mentioned it earlier in the show, everything but the magnificent seven is essentially flat or down on the year, and everybody's looking at 5.5% money market rates and they think that's been the best call all year, that's what the stock market's going to have to contend with. does it mean the stock market

collapses? no. but it just means that that marginal dollar that's sitting in cash, it's not 2019, when it was sitting in cash at zero. it's sitting in cash at 5.5%, we'll just sit there. it is going to be harder to drag ma that money out. >> jim, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> come by any time. >> nice to have him in new york. nice to see you. >> so, if the stock market needs to compete with t-bills and money markets, there's got to be a drawdown. andy says 3900 would be that drawdown in order to adjust to where rates are right now. >> that's a big ways down, 6%, 7%. that would be if it mathematically worked out that, you know, they had the exact drawdown. i don't want to go against andy, he's really smart, particularly on the bond side. so i -- that would be a bigger drawdown than i'm expecting. i could take a little bit of pain, like, we're in a little bit of pain. i can take a little bit more pain and really feel okay, but

that would be -- that would be very bad pain and time to buy. >> mike? >> yeah, i mean, let's just say that what dan, the word that dan just brought up a few minutes ago, actually came to pass, if we got into a stagflationary environment, i think that's actually conservative in terms of the potential downside. that's a really toxic situation for risk assets. it's a toxic situation for fiscal budgets, as well. you need economic growth and you need reasonable rates for basically governments to borrow. and that would be a disaster, so, i think we could be sharply lower, so, that's really the reason why inflation has to be crushed here, however painful it is. and i think that as long as the fed sort of stays the course, then we probably are going to sort of stabilize down around 4,000, probably higher, i mean, i hope so, because we're long, but if they don't, then i think we could go sharply lower. look at what happened in the 1970s.

coming up, a bingeing ing to your wallet. what you should expect from your next netflix bill. plus, sofi so low. our options traders are n chtioning themselves in the fite name. that and more when "fast money" returns. back in two. ♪ that first time you take a step back and see everything you've accomplished. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place.

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welcome back to "fast money." are price hikes ahead for netflix? "the wall street journal" reporting the streaming platform plans to raise prices within months after the actors' strike ends. no details on how much. shares popping in early morning trade, but ending the day lower. has not been confirmed by any other outlet or by netflix. karen, what do you make of this? >> yeah, so, when it did pop, i was thinking briefly that it was netflix that was saying netflix was going to raise prices, which is different than someone else saying that netflix is going to raise prices, but i am long, i think it's a good thing. obviously, when you raise prices, and your costs don't really move, that's a great thing for the bottom line. so, the stock is down a lot. they had that great last quarter. it's certainly not cheap, but it's a premium multiple for sure, but it deserves it. i think what's kind of more

interesting is this a bad thing or a good thing for the other streamers? you know, mike khouw brought up on our call, as well, maybe you are taking more wallet share away and there's less left for the other streamers. or maybe it's an umbrella, prices are higher, everyone else can move prices higher without being sort of penalized. >> well, we have mike khouw here, so, mike, what are your thoughts? >> how lucky is that? >> yeah. well, actually, it's funny. netflix is not unreasonably priced when you take a look at their eps and free cash growth. i think we've always thought of this as a very expensive company. it isn't really now. i also think they have a sticky customer base. i can certainly say that's true in our house and i'm not trying to encourage them to raise our subscriber fees, but there's a good chance they will and there's a good chance that we're going to pay it when they do. i do wonder, though, about things like disney+ and some of the others. you know, we've got, i think, espn also some of the -- they've recently increased prices for some of their subscriber services, and i always thought

of them as being sticky, but they're seeing competition. we used to think of espn as the must-see content in terms of sports, and they aren't really anymore with the addition of things like youtube's subscriber services. but netflix has a sticky position in households and i think they are going to raise those fees and people are going to probably accept it. >> this would leehappen after the actors' strike, we don't know the details of that agreement, but their costs could go higher. if actors are going to demand a bigger share of the streaming revenues, then that's, you know, however long that property exists on the netflix mrplatfor they're paying out. so, the margins may not -- >> i have to think those payments as a percentage of the margins is still small. one other thing i wanted to add, there was a personnel change on the ad-supported part of the business, which, a couple of weeks ago, one of the executives said this is a little more difficult than we thought.

happening slower than we thought. >> still in it? >> no, i'm hoping to buy it back lower, and, you know, there are been comments, jpmorgan had a conference recently where they talked a little bit about margin expansion not being as extensive. it would be surprising to see them raising prices where they've been able to effectively claw back borrowers, people that are boborrowing? >> cheat? steal? >> my dad called me, asked if you're watching the quarterback, talking about patrick mahomes. we love him, as well. he said, i don't have netflix anymore, because i was using your brother's -- >> oh, sharing. that's what they called it. >> dad, you serious? >> going to come after my dad. sorry about that. a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. searching for safety? well, two old stand-bys may not offer the comfort you're looking for. the chart master is sending up a warning sign ahead. plus, sofi slump.

shares heading south, even as student loan payments start up again. so, how are options traders positioning in the name? the details, next. you're watching asmo"ft ney," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

welcome back to "fast money." sofi plunging today, down more than 17% in the last month. the losses come even as millions of americans prepare for student loan payments to resume. something that should give a boost to the stock. today's move catching the eye of options traders. so, mike, what did you see? >> yeah, so, this one traded more than two times its average daily put volume. i should point out this is nothing new.

more than 2 million open interest on the put side. the trades that we saw today were really rolls down and out. that and's where people have already made bearish bets pushed those bets by going out further in time and to lower strikes. that included a roll of 15,000 of the october 8 puts down to the november 7s, selling what they had previously bought. and that's indicating they believe the stock has at least 13% additional downside over the course of the next six weeks or so. >> wow. what does that tell us, dan? >> look at what's going on in the broader financial space. after a big runup in the buy now, pay layer. this is coming at a time where this is a demographic where they're going to start paying back student loans. that was some of the excitement, just a couple months ago after they reported and guided. i'll make one other point, like, if they are going to be able to avoid, let's say, some of the credit pitfalls that some folks

who are buying these downside puts. they are expected to hit profitability for the first time since they've been a publicly traded company. that could change the dynamic of the story. >> i just think we're in a world where a lot of business models just don't compute anymore, and it's going to get a lot worse. so, the cost of rates, the cost of financing for a lot of these consumer finance companies, leaving aside the credit dynamics, that a trillion and a half in student loans, you can't refi them, there's a lot of things people want to do that they can't. we peaked with buy now pay later and the rocket mortgages of the world and all these places, and the mortgage markets, as well, i think the business models are challenged, but the cost of financing means the businesses don't really make money at these levels. coming up, playing it safe. it might be harder than you think. the safety trade skating on thin ice. so, could these two sectors be in store for more pain? the chart master, carter worth, is updating his call on the beaten down space. where he sees these trades

heading next. more "fast money" after this. tcusmissed a most of "fast?" cah any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." today's selloff pushing the dow negative for the year. the index dropping more than 400 points as yields spiked to their highest levels since 2007. the s&p falling 1.3% and the nasdaq snapping a four-day winning streak, down 1.8%. some big drops in names across sectors. home depot, gm, lululemon, goldman sachs all sinking in today's selloff. and if you are just tuning in, the u.s. house voting to remove kevin mccarthy as speaker, in an unprecedented move that only adds to the uncertainty overhanging the market. house republicans planning to meet later tonight to chart out steps to replace mccarthy. front-runner seems to be emerging, and of course, there is the ticking timeline of the shutdown. we only have so many days to go until we have to revisit that issue, and will we actually see a shutdown then, tim? >> i don't know, but the dynamic also around the goals of, i think, some, at least the more conservative gops in terms of fiscal cuts and there's an

agenda out there that they were seeking to get, and i actually this stalls it, i don't think it get as more aggressive agenda in place. meantime, there's been no safety in the safety trade recently. utilities and staples seeing heavy losses over the last month, as interest rates climb and the consumer outlook remains murky. our next guest called this just last week. carter worth of worth charting is back to lay out where these sectors are headed next. carter? >> what a mess. so, very safe, sort of low beta areas of the market also taking it on the chain. but utilities actually reversed today, interestingly. after being down 6.5% just from friday's close, you had every stock in the xlu up but two, and my hunch is that you have a bit of a capitulation low. let's look at a few charts and figure it out together. so, very long-term first. and this is the irony. these are not exciting businesses, of course, and yet,

and you'll see here, if you were to go from the absolute peak of the dot com era, march 24th, 2000, of course, utilities have really lagged the market. by a lot. market up some 180% and utilities up 70%. look at this next chart. this is the total return of the s&p 500 utilities sector versus the total return of the s&p. utilities are still ahead, even with this recent selloff, 23 years later. it just shows dividends are an important part of the game. but let's go to the here and now and look at the utility chart. we collapsed out through the bottom of this formation. you can call it a descending triangle, doesn't matter what you call it, it's a bad setup and it has broken. but we reversed intraday and i think we'll snap back here. only sector to end in the green. but staples, i don't think it's over quite yet. and so one way to draw the lines here, another and final chart

what we have is a reference point. do we get down to the 52-week lows, and i think we do. >> so, short-term, tradeable, bounce, you see ahead for utilities, but staples, more pain ahead. are there any charts within staples, carter, that look like any sort of refuge? >> well, not particularly. one that's not well-traded, coca-cola bottling, of all things, is down to a level where rebound potential is high. >> all right, carter, thank you. that's staggering to think that utilities still have outperformed since the dot com boom -- >> imagine if that was our show. >> right. for 23 years. >> but think about the world where there has been no alternative. so, this is a world of tina, and this is, where, again, dividend yields have been very important.

the underperformance of the utility sector has been staggering. doefr 16% over the last 12 sessions and underperformed by the s&p by 450 bips yesterday. according to a couple of folks that i was reading, the fourth-worst showing he's ever had. so, as carter said, it's been pretty shocking what's gone on here. i think the challenge is to the business model. >> not only that, i think the reversal today and it really did feel like capitulation. that's what i'll expect you'll see in tlt. and it sets up for a trader move. carter mentioned that breakdown at 60, that's where you get the ricochet back to. there's plenty of folks they'll get back in and press that short. >> mike, you play utilities for a bounce? >> well, i bought some calls in next era energy which is the largest constituent of xlu today, but i wouldn't buy the stock and i'm not completely cown vinced. here's one of the problems, and that is, you know, next era has had negative free cash flow for

many years and, of course, as we were just discussing, utilities are a place where people looking for yield would go, so, in a higher rate environment, and a higher yield environment, they have two big challenges. the cost of capital is going up, they have negative free cash flow and a lot of debt, so, that's not great, and investors have other places to go. that, too, is not great, though it's trading five turns cheaper than the market and i saw that reversal, and that's the reason i bought those calls. >> all right, coming up, it's not just eli lilly customers slimming down, the stock has been shedding weight, too what's behind the pharma plflop? >> pharma flop? >> more "fast money" in two. sk ♪♪

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feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. welcome back to "fast money." e li lilly in a lull today. the latest drop coming after the drugmaker inked another bio. this time, of point bio pharma for $1.4 billion. this is the third deal of the year, as the company looks to bolster its pipeline, even amidst strong demand for its diabetes and weight loss drugs. this is in the radio pharmaceutical sector, which

uses radio to treat cancer in a very targeted fashion, tim. so, puts it in competition with a drug that's already out by novartis. they have a very rich stock. good time to do a deal? >> it's a great time to do a deal with a currency that's trading at a premium and certainly based upon forward multiples and where we've discussed the addressable market in their weight loss drug. so, it's an exciting time for the company. i know that was the copy that we read going into the commercial, you know, it's -- i would hardly call it a flop. i would just say, this is a case where a company that had an extraordinary run. carter might look at this and see maybe a head and shoulders formation here. there's no question you've actually taken kind of the top off. and i think you've got a case here where the competitive landscape, the news flow in terms of the risks around these drugs and analysts catching their breath in terms of, this is going to be the only game in town, i think is part of what's going on here. >> you have to wonder if there's t toppy action going on here.

the payment professor for restaurants, that's going to see a decline in business because of these glp -- >> everybody. >> when you get to the ancillary trades, then it starts to become, oh, you know -- >> you can outthink yourself in markets all the time, and this feels like that. >> we were talking about this before, i mean, throw novo and lilly into some of the sentiment trades that have worked well this year. at one point, maybe a month ago, these had a combined market cap of a trillion dollars. think about the last time we were able to say that about a story in and around something like that. to me, i think they also just exhibit a lot of the, you know, irrational exuberance about stories in a market that's not great. i'm going to keep saying it. there's not a lot of great things going on. this is one good story and it's reflective in the valuations. they have too big gaps they are likely to fill. >> this is right at that gap. the next move down, it's taking the elevator down to 440. i'm not sure it will, but that's the price action, and the last 15 days, 12 of them have been

down. >> karen? >> well, the bar's set very high, right? they have a little bit of time to fill, because they're not there yet, right? they don't have their product out yet, but it's expensive for sure. i think, though -- i bought some back, higher than here, but i think -- it's not going to trade exactly what it's worth over time. it's going -- it's not going to be totally linear. i'm hanging onto it. >> and there are chapters to this weight loss story. mounjaro for weight loss is going to get approval. they're going have the sleep about pina study, the results should come out at the beginning of next year, mike, so, there are different catalysts, potentially, to this. it's not just weight loss drug and the stories out there and that's it. >> going to need some catalysts at 15 times revenues. when you could have bought it at 15 times earnings ten years ago. i don't see the sense in chasing this one year. i really don't. i'm guessing you're going to get a better opportunity, probably a much better opportunity. >> all right. coming up, and the survey

says -- caleb silver is here and he's brought along the results from his latest investor poll. stick around to find out what is on top of trader's minds. and ahead on "mad money," jim is chatting with the oshkosh ceo. more "fast money" in two. icy hot.

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welcome back to "fast money." we've got a news alert here on ford. the company making a new offer to the uaw. phil lebeau has the details. >> this offer was made monday night, and this is the seventh offer that ford has made to the uaw. remember, the uaw made an offer a previous monday, so, not this week, the week before, ford is now answering that offer with this one. some of the details, they're not going into at this point, but they have said that they have increased their overall wage offer. it is north of 20%, exactly how much, the company is not saying at this point, including a double-digit increase right off the bat for the uaw members. also including cost of living adjustments. a reduction in the wage progression. it used to be from eight steps down to four, now they're saying

it's greater than eight to four, whether it's eight to three or eight to two, but the number of wage progressions has been reduced. no tiers for new hires for the uaw, and from ford's perspective, this is the kind of offer that it believes can move the needle. now, does this get a deal done? way too early to say. but certainly, melissa, this is a step in the right direction, in terms of ford and the uaw now having a new base of which they can start negotiations, or continue negotiations, i should say. and again, this is the seventh offer from ford and an increase in the wage, north of 20%, not saying exactly how far north, but it is north of 20%. melissa? >> this significantly would close the gap. if it's north of 20%, then you have double-digit cost of living adjustments, that brings you up to 30, and much closer to the 40% uaw was asking for. >> well in theory, if you want

to see the uaw calculating it that way. you are correct. the significance here is that, look, there was a real breakdown in terms of the communication between ford and the uaw last week, and that was -- it showed up clear on friday in terms of the comments from uaw president shawn fain. he essentially said that jim farley, ceo of ford, was lying about the state of negotiations. ford held a press briefing with jim farley and the top executives, saying, you know, voicing their frustration at the way the talks have been handled by the uaw. so, now you have a new offer from ford. now, is that wage offer and the cost of living adjustment, and the other offers that are also in there, including taking temps up to $20, $21 an hour, i don't know the exact number there, but starting previously, they were lower than that. all of that, you put that together, is that enough to get the ball across the goal line?

hard to say at this point, but a step in the right direction. >> phil, thank you. phil lebeau. rough couple of months for stock markets may have investors a little on edge. 1 in 4 say they are investing less due to recent market volatility. caleb silver is here with a first look. caleb, why are they investing less? >> they're fearful. nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide. but the bank, you heard jim earlier, they're hanging out in the bank, hanging out in banking pr products. >> and you can really see it in the extra $10,000 question, which i love, what would you do with an extra 10k. >> still cds. and why not? because you can get 5%, 5.5%. probably going to get 6% sometime soon out of the bank in some form or not. that's what they're doing with their money. they don't want to put money into the market. these are active stock investors looking for a reason to believe. they just don't see anything. they have a lot of things on their list of worries, too. >> and what tops it? >> inflation still tops it,

because that's kind of the underlying thing, but the 2024 presidential election crept in there for the first time. i don't think it's about who is going to get elected, i think it's the dysfunctional political process we have here in the united states. rep mccarthy being ousted today, just another example. the credit downyards. that's new to the list. >> what about the mag seven? do they still love them? >> they still love them. those are their favorite stocks. we ask them every single time we do this, every two months, what are your favorite stocks, what do you hold only for a long time? it looks like the mag seven. a lot of those stocks are being heavily shorted right now. so, their favorites are going to be under pressure if this plays out. >> this survey period did not capture the rise in interest rates. >> the last fed meeting, the last hold, so, we stopped at last week. it is as new as last friday. the bad news has just been everywhere and you feel it in the sentiment. >> what do you think the reaction will be to the rise in rates? more money into cds? >> absolutely. the bank is asafe place to be.

they lollipops in there. the anxiety is not about the stock market, but their personal finances. are they going to be able to withstand this? >> i really do like those lollipops. >> who doesn't like a dum-dum? >> people might say that about us. how about the next ten years, anybody change that, the outlook, has that changed in the last three months? >> i was surprised a little bit by this, but we asked them, what's the best ten-year investment, we heard the gallup polls, people talking about real estate. they are heavily into stocks. stocks and everything else is way down the list. they are looking for a reason to believe. they don't see one, though, in the near term, maybe the long-term, maybe ten years out, a few years out. d.ght now, super scare >> caleb, thank you. as always. caleb silver. up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade. mike khouw? >> cheap to the market, cheap to its peers, earnings preopen on thursday. constellation brands. >> tim seymour? >> energy super cycle.

tte after the div, stay there. >> chairwoman? >> yes, happy birthday to my husband and my final trade is tlt, buy. >> dan? >> lawrence is the man. happy birthday. xlu. tnkou.carter's call on that >>ha y for watching >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> a. welcome to mad money. other people want to make friends i'm trying to save you a little money. my job is to not entertain but educate and put everything in context. call me at one 807 43 cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer. enough hasn't been enough. there's been fear