that was a five-yearish trial, so that will probably be the first and best look of an average treatment duration might look like. it will be between 12 and 24 months. >> okay, michael, thank you for joining us. tomorrow, jobs report, but also, used car index. credit, that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. consumer crunch. the damage to these names is sending an ominous warning about the consumer. is the market too worried or not worried enough? plus, the ultimate game of would you rather. we'll grill the traders if whether over the next six months they prefer to old treasuries or the big big caps. and later we'll go inside the major move lower in stocks in mexico. while foot locker's recent rebound could be for real. and how the rise in ten-year is going to strip many millions from the next mega millions

winner. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, bonawyn eison and guy adami. we start with the market's second half slide. the s&p has dropped 7%. if you're looking at grocery goods, general mills, coke, pepsi, down 10% or more. big box sellers, check out the moves lower in names like dollar general, target, best buy. and even higher end brands seeing outsized losses. one big culprit, higher interest rates, persistent inflation weighing on the consumer, and tomorrow's jobs report, the first to capture the impact of the uaw strikes could show a bit more pressure being put on people's wallets. so, do all these moves prove the consumer is facing a perfect storm of problems? we didn't even mention repayment of student loans in here, guy. >> why -- yeah, just throw that in on top. >> toss that in. >> great movie, by the way, with george clooney.

i think yes is the answer. and you're finding it in these stocks. the fact that target's multiyear low, dollar gen, five below, dollar tree, all -- juxtaposing to costco, within ear shot of an all-time high, and walmart, that is somewhat problematic. xrt, critical levels here. 57 1/2, 58 level has been support a number of times over the last couple years. needs to hold that. below that, then i thought it takes the next leg lower. so, is the consumer in a good spot? i would say absolutely not. >> it's a combination of these stocks were too expensive in many cases, and i would get at least into the staple space, you start talking about general mills, these companies were not worth what they were worth. if you think about a world where interest rates were zero, they were essentially bid up, the valuation of stocks that were utility-like in terms of their return, we'll probably talk about utilities later, but i'm talking about staples, we talked about that underperformance of the s&p, about 16% since may.

if you look at that staples move, it's down 12.5% since august 1st. that's correlated exactly with when you had this move higher in rates. at least when we really started to rocket higher. it is also -- we're having this conversation, everybody's having this conversation about what glp-1 means for snacks and cash nated softd drinks, but if you look at the lilly report and the numbers that came out in early august, almost coincide with all of this, it's more than just a coincidence. when we started reassessing the total addressable market for weight loss drugs, we started reassessing what, you know, units were going to be in terms of sales and we're hearing about that from people like walmart. >> walmart saying today less units, that's a direct quote, by the way -- >> how do you like that? >> less calories. >> how do you feel about that? the grammar. >> we get the sentiment. people are buying less because they're on these weight loss drugs. and they are spending more. so, discretionary spending is being reallocated from whatever

they're buying before to these drugs which can cost, if not on insurance, $1,300 a month. which is a lot out of people's pockets. >> yeah. well, i wonder, though, about the shopper at walmart, right, we know there's high end shoppers and low end shoppers at walmart. and i have to think the mix would be on the lower end, which would not be where that drug is, because i don't know how fully insured that drug is. >> it's for diabetes and weight loss, it could, in fact, be insured. >> okay. >> so, they are selling more of these glp-1, so, that's showing up in their revenue on that side of things. >> if they are able to know exactly who the shoppers are and see the basket of what's in there, because i was wondering, how do they know? just the consumers cutting back and the consumer trying to eat better? one thing that is a little bit backward looking is, arbob, a gas, has moved very dramatically in a very short time that i don't think is really reflected, and we certainly know the pain that the consumer feels at the

pump, and so, if that's abating a little bit, i think that's a good thing, but i mean, it's -- i own a bunch of consumer-related stocks, not fun for sure. >> there's really just no place to high. a couple economic data points we haven't gotten to, the credit card balances, delinquencies. so, you are starting to see the cracks that we avoided for the longest period of time. we've gone from hard landing to no landing to now soft landing to -- >> hard landing again. >> exactly. and i think all of that ebb and flow is kind of bearing itself out in the stock market. what really concerns me isn't necessarily the moves in staples. we've said for awhile those have been overpriced. it's really the move in the high end names that are showing that there really isn't a -- we talked about the k-shaped recovery a couple years ago. is there no pocket that is safe within the consumer complex? and i think the movement that we're seeing, volatility that we're seeing on that particular sub space is really what's a cause of concern, because even that more insulated consumer is

really in a situation where they have to make decisions about, what are they going to spend on, and whether or not they're going to spin that incremental dollar. >> we talked about restoration hardware, that is case in point of the higher end consumer, re-evaluating what they're going to spend on. >> and the companies themselves re-evaluating how promotional they want to be and how much they want to hold onto margins. i've talked about, i'm short lulu, it's down from 400 to 360. they just reported three weeks ago, the numbers were very good. all the reasons why people wanted to own lulu are very much intact, international, men, the growth, the innovation. however, what are you going to pay for these stocks in this environment? and that's really what it comes down to. in the case of rh, i don't think it's terribly expensive relative to itself. and i think it is starting to get interesting. a lot of these staples look very interesting, because to be clear, no matter what's happening with the comeconomy, people are still going to go out and drink coke. they are going to continue to buy general mills cereals. and so, it's what you're willing to pay for these stocks and if

you look at the charts, they traded in very predictable ranges. and i think if you look at the valuations, you get to a place where, when you have stocks that are effectively utilities and commodities, that's when valuation really matters. and that's when you get to a place where you say, oh, wow, i didn't think i could own it at 12 times, and we're getting close. >> defensive? >> i'm talking about defensive that hasn't been defensive, for all the reasons we just talked about, but will be defensive. and so, to say, i can't biuy coke -- it's not time to sell coke, it's time to figure out when you want to buy it. >> that's the question. when do you get defensive? because you could have thought for a long time this year that a recession was coming, that the stock market's going to crack, it's going to happen, it's going to happen -- it hasn't happened and the defensive names in the meantime have not acted well, so, how do you decide when is the time? >> think about how utilities are -- historically very defensive. think about how horribly they've traded. it's been a strange few months without question. quickly, karen's right to point out gasoline, down 80 something

cents which is significant over the last couple weeks. problem is, you go to your local gas station, you're not going to seat an 80-cent decline. doesn't happen that way. i don't think you're suggesting that. and the move in crude oil and all these really strange things going around in the surface, but to answer your question, when you get these capitulation moves, for example, i don't know if our crack staff in ec can put up a clorox chart, they blamed getting -- >> cyber. >> which is -- sounds a bit fugazi to me. look at this -- >> i believe it, though. >> yeah, go longer term in clorox. this trajectory has been in place for -- been getting hacked for the last six months? my point is, what historically has been defensive has not been working in an environment where it should. >> where would you go for defense? >> man, i -- i'm going to repeat myself and say i still think it's probably that megacap complex. >> what? bonawyn. >> but hear me out. we just sat here and said, not only have you had the opportunity cost of not being in

those names for the better part of this year, you've gotten absolute wli shedded -- >> taken to the back shed and -- >> oh. >> shredded, shedded -- >> i get it. i didn't know what happened. >> wasn't sure. >> shedded, yeah. >> to the wood shed, you mean. >> absolutely. chopped up, spit out. being in those names has not worked for you. so, at least you have some beta to the upside in that complex, even if there's probably more downside now. >> i think that's -- i think -- >> "fast money" first. >> what? >> shedded. 100%. >> wood shed we have used -- >> by the way, i was going to say -- >> not shedded as a verb, no. >> 100%. >> it gets into terminology, too, when you -- you know what i'm going -- >> tim, you can't do that. that's not fair. you start your thought. >> finish your thought. >> when you're not liking what somebody's doing, maybe they are being irritating to you, you refer to them as a tool and sometimes actually someone can be -- >> the entire tool shed. >> or maybe a home depot. >> they're the whole shed.

or they can be home depot. >> that's, like -- >> can i just come to bonawyn's defense. he doesn't need it, but i'll just tell you this. if you look at the qqqs, higher rates, all the things that should be pushing the market around, they're this close to making a new relative high against the s&p. the s&p's going down, but if you look at the place that's led markets, right now, you can't get too far away from these names. i'm not very bullish on the market here, although, i think we have a rally to year end. >> this is the argument that most investors are making, right? despite, you know, we had that note yesterday, the downgrade of apple from key bank, i think it was, to basically a market weight, saying the valuation doesn't reflect growth. it doesn't deserve this multiple, and yet it does, maybe, because of the execution aspect in this sort of volatile time. >> not for me, apple, but i have a very big meta position. started the year much smaller and it -- >> that's cheap. >> so is google.

>> so is google. i feel more comfortable with those. i have amazon, as well, which is not cheap, but i do, you know, i do believe in the a.i. story, so, i'm in that seven, most of them, don't own tesla, is that in -- tesla's not in -- >> for the big -- >> yeah, i think so. >> okay, i don't own that. but t's been a good place to be, i think that it's been -- the balance sheets are great, right? the business model, for some of them, are so great, the margins are so great. also, they've been in a position where they can become a lot more efficient. they've been spending money, spend, spend, spend, particularly meta, obviously, we know that. and to turn that on a dime, that's very profitable change. >> yeah. well, the institutional investor hall of famer known to move markets is bracing for a sharp market pullback. jpmorgan's chief market strategist and cohead of global research, welcome back, marco. >> hall of fame? >> yeah. >> nice. >> beautiful. >> excellent. >> multiple times, in fact.

>> he deserves it. you, like so many people, started the year very bearish on stocks. you stuck with it pretty much. it's not been an easy ride, but you do see the pain coming. >> no, so, we have the price target 4200 and sort of in fairness, we thought this is going to be a more volatile year that we'll see more sort of chop, instead, we got that summer rally, primarily driven by tech, which was sort of very painful, and the market came down sort of though our price target, and we remain somewhat negative still, so -- not necessarily calling for immediate sharp pull-back, but we think recession will eventually happen, so, sort of upside versus downside in stocks is not that great. >> but this gets at the conversation we were just having in terms of timing. you can be an investor who believes that recession will hit, that there will be some sort of a landing, some sort of a recession, and that the pull-back will come, but it's hard to position yourself at this point in time, because we just -- i don't know, the job market's still strong.

>> job market is still strong, but you are starting to see the stress in consumer, if you look at sort of the delinquencies in thecards, in the auto loans. inflation is there, and rates are higher for longer, you know. so, this thing will eventually come, right? so, then we look at upside versus downside. could there be 5%, 6% in equities? of course. but if there is a downside, it could be 20% downside, right? and you compare that to the cash, 5.5%, you know? so, how much equity upside above 5.5%? maybe, 3%, 4%, but downside 20%. so, that, like, so -- timing is very hard, right? and this year, particularly, and we didn't get it -- timing good. that said, we still stick to that. it's not attractive, it's not exciting. there is an alternative, and recession, i'm not sure how we're going to avoid it if we stay at these level of interest rates. >> mel, what do they call it when a video goes viral.

>> viral. >> crazy. >> i mentioned that, because rick was here the other day and his call -- >> 13%. >> went viral. i mean -- >> yes. >> million and a half views now. you probably saw that. what -- >> i did see. >> i don't think rates are going there, but what are your thoughts on rates? here we are at 4.7%, ten-year. >> when you compare to the multiple, it doesn't add up, right? historically, the level doesn't add up with the multiple p te. the other thing is, what's going to happen, right? so, the rates could go a little bit higher. i think the -- you know, the 13% might be, you know, things would probably break a lot sooner than that happens, so, i don't think it goes that high, but could go up a little bit, a little bit more, which is already, i think, problematic for the multiple. >> so, marco, there's been two markets. there's the nasdaq and, you know, the magnificent seven, whatever you want to call them, and then there's the rest, which have been flat or down, right?

do you think that it is possible to just have a recovery out of those into others? >> that's a very good point, right? so, russell is down 2% for the year. cash is up 5.5%. so s&p all the way down. magnificent seven up a lot, right? so -- two course of action, you know? if you don't believe that there is arecession, i guess buy those. buy the ones which are lagging, right? recession doesn't happen, they will lead, right? but don't buy these magnificent, right? if there is a recession, i think magnificent will catch up, or catch down, to where the rest is, you know? so, if you want to take sort of a view on recession, you know, there's relative component, you know? so, some things got beaten up already, tim mentioned sort of staples, utilities, those types of things. some of the cyclicals. >> part of what got you into the hall of fame in the strategist world, you have a quan approach

and quan background. i feel like the market we've had is something to do with positioning. it's had something to do where sentiment is, and it just seems like that's been part of the story, in hindsight, that's always easy to say, but where are we now on that stuff? because i remember your call in march of 2020 with covid and you were like this is crazy this is -- this is a screaming buy. sentiment feels awful, when just six weeks ago, people were, i think, over their skis. >> yeah. no, that's a very good point. so, positioning does matter a lot. and it did matter this year, as well. so, we started november, december, very low positioning, you know, tech, pretty much everything. volatility was still high. and then volatility was coming down significantly this year. as it comes down, many of the technical investors, they little by little sort of increase, increase. so, that was a tailwind, right? you had that big tailwind, underestimated by the market. and then you had the sort of tech a.i. thesis, so, that sort

of got us to the highs. and now, it's picking up. vix is not 13, it's 18, 19, and data are becoming a little more shaky. so, we're around -- we call it 58%, 60%, it's not high positioning. it's much higher -- >> that doesn't sound very bullish. sounds like all this sentiment hasn't really done much to positioning and people aren't that, you know, aren't that long. >> no, it's the sort of middle, like, about average, you know, i would say. means can go up or down positioning-wise, but we do think that sort of this cycle part is going to get tougher and tougher as the consumer erodes. >> marko, thank you for your time. i remember the quan report you used to put out, being that tim just put it out. you put it out with scott and amin and other people. how should investors be thinking about volatility as an asset

class right now? i know we are thinking about, should we overlay or buy outright optionality, but in terms of actual allocation, can you touch on that? >> it's hard to own just volatility, because there's always negative. you have to -- it was tough this year, but this summer, when we got to 12, you know in july, it looked really much, you need to own some of the downside protection. investors are also selling short-term options, so, it's been used to generate as an asset class to generate yield. but -- so now at 18, i think it's -- it's probably still a good to own some of it, but not as attractive when it was down to 12 or 13, so -- >> marko, thank you. >> thank you. >> hope you come by soon again. >> thank you. >> so, what do we think here? >> mid 3,000s. mike wilson's been talking about, marko, you got to listen

to him. you don't have to agree with him, you got to listen to him. and how many people -- he's still working, he's in the hall of fame. he's like eric clapton. good for marko. >> well, i think that as we set up for some seasonal dynamics, i look at what rates have done, what oil has done, and i just think a lot's been thrown at the consumer, i think a lot's been thrown at the market. i don't really like the setup for next year, but i kind of feel like we have some room here. i think tomorrow's a payroll number. when we get that next payroll number that really shows that the labor market is weakening, i think the market is going to love it. and i think they're going to believe that we still have that fed back. this has all been about the fed put that people actually -- people think, hey, you know what after that last meeting, they're serious. l like, they're not messing around. that was the difference of the rates markets, so, i think the short-term to medium-term move to the year end, it favors the bulls. coming up, rivian's terrible, no good, awful, very bad day. the headlines taking all the

charge out of the ev maker's shares. we'll drive down that bumpy road ahead. plus, our chart of the day. we'll break it down. more "fast money" right after this. you mean this one - the oe with titanium? (sean) no way i can trade this busted up thing for one. (jason) maybe stealing wishes from the birthday boy is not your best plan -- switch to verizon and trade in any iphone and get the new iphone 15 pro on them. (sean) what!? (jason) yup, and on an amazing network (sean) and i don't have to ruin anymore birthday parties! (jason) yeah, that ship has sailed... let's go get you the iphone. here we go, come on hon. (vo) trade in any iphone in any condition for a new iphone 15 pro on us. only on verizon. since my citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this?

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we have a news alert on the criminal trial of ftx founder sam bankman-fried. >> we just wrapped inside the criminal trial here in lower manhattan. three witnesses today taking the stand. ftx cofounder gary wong has already pleaded to fraud. the prosecution jumped right into it today, saying, did you commit financial frauds, he said yes. and prosecutors said, do you see any of the people you committed fraud with in the courtroom, he stood up, he spotted sam bankman-fried and said, yes. was bankman-fried's college roommate at m.i.t. and lived with him in that bahamas pebtp penthouse. all of this, he says, was at the direction of sam bankman-fried. he said the hedge fund that is also connected in this had special privileges and unlimited

access to ftx accounts, and the ability to withdraw endless money, and to have a negative balance and a $65 billion line of credit. also said alameda did take roughly $8 billion of customer money from ftx. wong got a $1 million personal loan from alameda and a $200 million to $300 million loan, taken out in his name. that borrowed money was used, instead, to make investments on behalf of the company, he said he never saw it, he owned 10% of alameda research. we heard from another ftx executive and m.i.t. friend, as well. also a bahamas roommate. his testimony ended on a fiery note, struck from the record, but when asked why he lost fate in ftx, he said, ftx defrauded all of its customers. and then, we had a venture capitalist that took the stand. he said that they lost -- invested and lost $278 million in that company. they wrote it down to zero.

he said, they never had a board of directors or a cfo. so, key testimony there, guys. back to you. >> crazy stuff. kate, thank you. kate rooney. >> racy. >> wow. >> we are kicking the tires on two auto stocks making headlines today. first up, gm. shares dropping after at least 20 million of the automakers vehicles were built with potentially dangerous air bag parts. auto regulators recommending a recall of 50 million vehicles using the same air bags which are made by arc you a motive. it would effect gm and 12 other automakers. gm's stock hitting a three-year low on the back of this. and shares of rivian plummeting. the ev maker announcing a $1.5 billion convertible bond sale after the bell last night. it provided q-3 revenue estimates that were in line with estimates, obviously, it's the raise that has the stock down

this much. >> yeah, it's interesting. rivian does have another convert out there, not surprisingly, got annihilated. 20 and change conversion price, so -- it's now through that. on the one hand, you can think that a lot of the selling was from people who think, all right, i'm going to buy on the convert, i'm going to get in front of it, short some and then buy the convert and then hedge it. on the flip side, though this now breaking below its conversion. you got to rejigger your -- if you own this bond, and you have short against it, you kind of have to rejigger. so, i'm interested to see how the short interest has changed, but this -- that bond was -- they are going to have to pay more than that. >> demand is off the chart. crazy amount of demand. the ceo talks about a pathway to profitability. all good stuff. that's a pretty huge move today, on 190 million shares or so, four times normal volume. they lose 33,000 -- they lose 30

grand every car they sell. you can say that will flip at some point, yeah, maybe, but they haven't proven that to be the case yet. i understand you trade the stock, but you look at a long-term chart of rivian, if you can look, it's pretty much flatlined at this level. you want to trade it, be my guest, but i don't know if you can own it here. >> it gets back to, you know, where rates are higher, suddenly people are reassessing business models and what companies are worth, and this is a case where the cash burned is crazy. gm, like, they didn't need this news. and they certainly didn't need -- the chart tells you that, as it broke through that 32. we had auto sales year over year, and those numbers were okay. around 15.7 million, but a lot of that is fleet. if you look below those numbers, we're starting to see weakening in demand and we've all show already why there are concerns around the consumer. not great for the autos. there is a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. the ultimate would you rather. in this corner, the mighty six-month treasury bill.

its challengers? some of the market's most widely owned stocks. are you ready to rumble? we'll go ten rounds, next. plus, as if air travel wasn't stressful enough. a change is coming to mexico's airports, and the stocks taking a hit because of them. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." some mexican airport stocks dropping today after the government announced changes to airport fees, according to reports. the changes will effect the entire tariff system, which includes passenger fees, use of runways and leasing spaces to airlines and suppliers.

the broader mexico etf eww down sharply. that's one you own. >> yes, it really had a bad day. kind of an odd report. seemed rather arbitrary that they sort of put in these new tariffs that didn't have any -- it seemed arbitrary, random, and out of nowhere. and so, all of those stocks got hit hard, like, which, amazingly that you remembered i owned like 12 years ago. >> yeah. >> thinking about it further, this, i think, presents somewhat of a concern for, if you think you want to not onshore but go to mexico, nearshore, and if mexico is as business-unfriendly as to do things like this, which amlo has done, he's done some of that, then you kind of have to rethink, which is not great for, you know, if the big three want to hold moving to mexico over

the head of the uaw, this isn't great. >> i'm going to cross the border and go to delta, i'm going to beat you to the punch and say that they report on the 12th of october, so, next week, if i'm not mistaken. we thought the stock would go to 49. but here we are at 36ish. i think delta actually ahead of earnings is interesting here. >> bonawyn? >> listen, i think there's got to be some understanding of the risk that you're taking any time you're kind of taking on this international risk. i think the mexican market clearly, i think it's progressed, you know, the emerging market trade, i think, makes sense. and if you really think about, where do you want to be in terms of the energy complex, i think mexico has the manufacturing and the come podty exposure. so, i think this actually might be chance for you to get involved. >> the mexico peso is off 10% since september 1st. if you have that currency risk if you invest in the eww. a lot of this is macro, a lot of this is interest rates. the dynamics, less about stock-specific, you are absolutely talking about some of

the risk to new business. having said all that, i think mexico, you are buys this weakness. oil prices support that economy, as well. and i think they hold. >> did you change your to pigs? >> i did not. amlo, his presidency ends september of next year. coming up, the ultimate would you rather. we're pitting donalds against stocks and what could be "fast money's" toughest challenge yet. >> oh, wow. i'm nervous. plus, activist action in foot locker. one trader says this name could be a prime target. we'll see if the shoe fits, after this. more "fast money" in two.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks finishing basically flat today and well off their lows of the session. the dow down ten points. the s&p down 5 1/2 points and the nasdaq, 16 points in the red. crew oil extending its rapid slide lower. the commodity now down more than 10% in just the past week. and look at shares of levi, falling after the bell. mixed quarterly results, cutting its full-year sales forecast. it already lowered the forecast and says now it's going to be the lower end of that range. now time to take another one of our favorite "fast money" games and turn it on its head, because that's what we do. it's the ultimate edition of

would you rather. we are asking the traders to choose big caps versus the six-month treasury. which is yielding 5.557%. very attractive. so -- let's get our boards out, jump right in. would you rather, tim, six-month t-bill or disney. >> so, i -- i mean, i guess the -- it's a six-month time horizon, where is my total return is going to be? i think disney, which is so beaten down, is going to outperform. i'm going mouse house. >> oh, wow. >> not bad, right? >> copyright infringement, but -- very good. >> all right. >> how about six-month t-bill, karen -- >> yes? >> or jpmorgan. >> wow. okay. even though i do own one-year -- jpmorgan. for a couple of reasons. -- >> what does it say up in the corner? >> says hi, jamie.

>> he's watching. >> did a heart over the i. >> i think that, you know, just under a 3% yield which is not that far off, as well as being under nine times earnings, so, for me, i feel like i'd rather, and i have more money, sort of, where do i have more money, in jpmorgan than i do in treasuries. >> interesting. this next one is an interesting one. six-month t-bill or -- nvidia, bonawyn? >> let the eye rolls ensue. so, i picked nvidia, and the reason why is -- >> share your board, please. >> yes, sorry, my goodness. >> come on, bonawyn. >> dropping the ball. shedded it. i'm picking nvidia here, because you have to pick your spot somewhere, right? and i've come up here and i said, listen, i really think it's very attractive to be investing in treasuries, but you completely run out of equities. for that reason, it's in-line with the barbell approach. i think you want something that's going to give you that upside growth and i think nvidia still offers that in tandem with

t-bills. >> i'm going to ask karen her opinion, because you own nvidia. >> i do. i own nvidia. but the risk/reward is obviously very, very different. i agree with everything you said. i think it's an interesting way to look at it, to think about, you have to be -- i do believe the a.i. story and i do believe, we always talk about picks and shovels, that's where you want to be. >> all right. here's one for guy. six-month t-bill or amazon? >> okay, i'm going to channel my inner rick -- you see what i did there? >> we don't see anything. >> has a lot of -- >> it's -- that line -- that's the amazon river. that's actually -- >> obviously. >> obviously. >> obvi. >> you're not happy about that. >> you could barely read it. >> miles gave us really bad pens. i'm throwing miles under the bus. amazon reports around halloween. i'm betting they will report one of those ridiculous quarters where you see a 15% move in the

stock over the last -- over a few-day period of time. so, get the t-bills, that's safe, but amazon might be hair trigger here. >> here's a bonus round. this is a very interesting question. would you rather -- six-month t-bills or the ten-year? >> oh. >> so, there is risk in duration. so, what would you choose, tim? >> this is a complicated question, because there's three, four levels to it. there's a duration element of it, because i actually think that there is still some risk in duration and moving out the curve. i look at the short end of the curve and i do think in the six months that's going to have come in, so, i realize you're not seeing much capital appreciate in your t-bill, but i'm going to say the six-month t-bill. because i think not only do i feel comfortable and in the next six months, i think we're going to answer a lot of questions on where we're going, it's possible we still go higher on rates. not at the short end, in the long end. >> karen? >> i agree with tim. i think -- something terribly, terribly bad has to happen for the short end to go dramatically down.

so, i'm going to stick with the short end. >> bonawyn? >> yeah, i'm going to go with the six-month, as well. but i want a little bit more dexterity and optionality. i don't want the duration risk. wait to be able to kind of monetize and redeploy rather than taking the mark to market risk being tied up in the ten-year. >> and the question is, do you think there's going to be a reversion in the ten-year in the short-term. >> uh-huh. >> yeah. >> you could make some money in the long end. >> right, exactly. so, that's -- >> >> even if you are near the amazon river, or -- >> i'll get a closeup of this, because this is actually brilliant. um -- i'll play your reindeer game and say the ten-year, because i do think, though ten-year yields could probably trend up a little bit from here, if the market selloff that i think is going to happen happens, it's going to drive yields lower. >> is the flight to quality the short end? >> i think it will be in the form of the tlt.

that's just my view. so, i'd rather -- >> did i just get a ding? >> no, that was my shoe, sorry. >> i was going to say -- >> if the ding fits. coming up, triple top trouble. one industry giant mowing into a concerning chart formation. what does it mean for the stock? our chart of the day is next. and cnbc is celebrating h hispanic heritage. here's the president of oceanic cruises. >> as a first-generation cuban american, both of my parents were born in cuba, migrated here to the u.s. for political reasons. growing up in miami, the cultural melting pot that it is, was always a comforting feeling, because i always felt like i was surrounded by folks that understood my heritage and understand the die nall ickes of my culture, and now that i'm able to raise my own kids here in miami, it's really nice, because we're able to really keep a lot of our own cultural

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time to reveal our chart of the day, deere is nearing the dreaded death crawl. kwloes to fal close to falling below its 200-day. you pointed out, guy, a potential triple top. >> they say there are no such things, but you will see that's exactly what it looks like. and weplay the golden cross, death cross, we're close to exactly that happening. so, watch it. they report, i want to say mid november, so, you have some time, but this is a stock that every time we sort of made these moves higher on the back of anticipated demand and stuff, it gives it right back. it's happened three times now. and one has to wonder, as, you know, things start to slow down, how it will impact the john deere and company. so, i know tim drives one. he mows his own lawn. he's a stud. but how many tim seymours are out there? >> a lot of people are cutting their own grass. i commend you. people call it a lawn mower, i have to correct them, it's a lawn tractor. nothing ones like a deere.

>> small tract >> we don't have to get into, you know -- >> tim has -- >> i would also say, so, i agree with guy's concern here, and if you have concern for deere, you have concern for caterpillar, and if you have concern for a chart that also has been kind of a rocket. now, the valuations in both cases are not terribly challenging. and that's the story. but the industrial world, after outperforming significantly, if you look at the xli as an overall for that group,under pressure here. and underperforming. >> do have concern for uri? >> yeah, i think it does. part of it is, is there trouble with the infrastructure build because of rates? yeah. >> i tend to think -- i'm with you there. the tailwind got us to where we were, and subsequently, now with rates where they are, it's kind of a bit of an overhang. i would be looking at an entry

point for deere. i would wait, but i really think at 12 times it's pretty compelling and it's not just an agriculture or industry story, it's also a technology story and one that i want to get behind. >> as i recall, ark invests, they see deere as an a.i. play. >> pardon me? >> in 2040? seems to be the time horizon. >> you know, it's a lot of automation going on and -- >> well, i'll say this -- >> tractors and -- >> these stocks have rerated -- they're not expensive, you will if you look, you know, caterpillar was an $80 stock a couple years ago, it's 260 now. >> let's play it out for a second. we have a minute here. >> maybe that. >> part of the beauty of owning a tractor -- >> yes. >> is being able to sit in it with your hat, right? that's all part of it. if we are now a society that has self-driving deere tractors, what have we become? who is going to put on the hats on? are you going to put it on the

seat? >> for people who actually have to work for a living and farm their farms, this might actually be a very good thing because it can make them very productive. >> gives them something -- it's a therapeutic thing to be out there on the field. >> oh. >> see, thank you, tim. >> there's nothing better than that. >> don't take that away from us. >> i'm not doing anything. i just want to go to break now. >> okay. coming up, here's something we haven't said recently. foot locker shares having a strong week. what's behind the step higher, and what can we learn from the move? and here's a sneak peek at the cramer cam. he's chatting with the levi strauss ceo. full interview, top of the hour on "d ne"mamoy. for "fast money" in two. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management

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to say it's had a nice week, okay, yeah, but i mean, this has been really terrible. but i also saw it on the list of the most act visitable companies so, it kind of made me take a closer look. what makes a good activist target? one, state of incorporation. foot locker happens to be in new york, this is a very --delaware is the best, new york also very, very friendly. when the entire board is up for re-election at one time. that's also very good for activists. that fits the bill here, as well. and then the third one is sort of severe sector underperformance. because the sector can be very much out of favor, but to have one of their -- one player in the sector be out of favor, way worse than the other, that's not good. so, is it right for an activist? maybe. i do think, though, i like mary dillon as the ceo. if that would be part of an activist campaign, that's going to be a tough one. and it's ridiculously cheap. so, i think it doesn't set up terribly, but i don't see

anybody there at the moment. >> right. >> well, foot locker, you know, it is tail versus dog, whatever, but it certainly is a tale on nike. we just had nike's numbers. three, four analysts, it's interesting, actually have the same headline on their report, which is better than feared. so, that explains to me the move you have in the stock. the stock, which, again, not a broken company, not an expensive company. a question, really, of where do you think you're going to see the next catalyst? it's probably not coming from china. it's probably not coming that marginal dollar discretionary. so i'm sure the stock, you know, i'm -- i'd like to see that move down to kind of the mid-80s and i think it's probably time to not only cover it, but then you start thinking about going the other way. >> mary dillon, she bought some shares recently. she owns almost 150,000. you like to see that. put your money where your mouth is. problem, of course, the stock is at a 12-year low. couple of analysts i think initiated in late september

neutral, downgraded the stock. price target's around 18 or so. it's just not all that interesting here, i don't think. coming up, a cash value conundrum. why the billion-plus dollar powerball jackpot isn't as good as it seems. plus, final trades. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

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welcome back to "fast money." call it a mega millions discount. a billion dollar plus powerball jackpot may have a nice ring to it, but it's not quite as eye-popping as it may seem. if the winner opts for a lump sum payment now, he or she will get the discounted value. with interest rates where they are, that comes to less than 50% of the headline value, according to "wall street journal jts analysis. that is lower when rates were much, much lower. if you take the annuity, you'll get your $1 billion in insta installments, but you have to wait 30 years. >> i'm not playing then. i mean, forget it. i'm out. >> good. more room for the rest of us, man. >> forget it. >> i'll take it either way. >> time for the final trade. time to go arne the horn. tim? >> staples, coca-cola.

its not time yet, but at $48 on the chart, you've had essentially a 20% pullback and valuation starts to get very interesting. >> karen? >> yes, so, next week, we're going to start to see corporate earnings and we always start off early and that is the banks, so, next friday, i think jpmorgan reports. i like the setup going into that earnings report, the stock's been down a fair amount in the last couple of weeks. so, bonawyn? >> for the longest time, home builders have flown in the face of the rate volatility. this last pickup might give you some pause. just wait a little bit. >> when i started at drexel in 1986, by the way, 60 broad street, rick santelli. the first thing, what do you think they gave you first day? an hp-12c calculator. >> i got one. >> time, value, money. >> time, value, money. so, we knew these things long before. i'm just saying.

and if tim doesn't want to be part of our reindeer games, he'll be the only one on the show on tuesday. >> let me ask -- >> wynn resorts. >> if you win, do you buy me a car? >> wynn. >> thanks for watching "fast." don't go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. we keep losing viable groups as formerly terrifi