and her presence certainly lives on. ♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines. remarkably resilient. imf director georgieva says the economy is holding up and she has this advice for central bankers ahead of next week's annual meeting. >> first, continue to be vigilant. we cannot afford to lose the fight against inflation.

second, be data dependent. third, communicate your intentions clearly. european markets look to close the week on a volatile note and food and beverage stocks are threatens by the weight loss drugs. and eu's metsola needs u.s. as an ally. >> it needs support for ukraine and there is no denial that we need the transatlantic allies.c biden will continue on the track in order to live up to the commitments made. and investors brace for september's non-farm payroll data with hopes a weaker reading

to push the fed to the end of its hiking cycle. good morning. good morning, julianna. this is our last show together for a while because i'm off next week. there is so much going on. the imf meetings are interesting to take stock at what is happening with the growth economy and when they publish the data next week. it is an opportunity to assess how far we have come and what the imf is saying with the challenges ahead and the structure themes facing the economy. the theme this year is high debt and low-income countries. i'm moderating a panel on debt with the imf and world bank to

talk about what low-income countries can do to profile the high debt and financing needs in the environment of much higher interest rates. of course, finally, a bigger theme from the imf is the theory of reform within the imf and multilateral framework and how they can face the challenges with the geo economic fragmentation. >> that is timely given how much focus there is on the global south with the issues of the multilateral systems in place. i know you had a chance to catch up with the imf managing director. what did she say about the economy? >> we will start off with tape. the take away is the global economy has been more resilient than they thought at the beginning of the year.

the theme for the annual meeting is one of divergidiverging. let's listen to what she told me. >> the resilience of the world economy has been remarkable. we have avoided recession that we so much feared may be coming our way this year and we see that consumer demand remains quite strong in most countries. labor markets are tight, but this recovery is slow and uneven. we looked at the impact of the two shocks. $3.7 trillion lost. more importantly, divergence is how the losses are distributed.

u.s. is the only large economy that recovered. eurozone is 2.7% below covid trend. emerging markets are 4% or 5%. low-income countries are 6% below pre-pandemic trend. when we look into the future, we see anemic dprgrowth. we project 3% in the next five years. before the pandemic, it was 3.8% on average in the previous case. >> when with you frame the numbers like that, what stands out to me is the divergence with the advanced economies and low-income countries. why is it pronounced? >> it is driven by a multiplicity of factors. number physical space you have. advanced economies, they put in

the equivalent of support in gdp in people and businesses. low-income countries with 2%. secondly, how challenging you are with the high food prices. low-income countries, by virtue of being poor, get hit dra drama dramatically. then comes the policies. we see in the low-income countries a difference. some that build strong fundamentals are performing better. senegal for example. those which have been drifting into political instability like nigeria and bako faso.

and then third is the debt. how much you are burdened by borrowing with interest rates up and dollar strong meansdeprecia. this burden of debt is unbe unbearable. 15% of low-income countries are already hit. another 35% to 40% are close to that place. what do we need? we need countries to do the right thing. strengthen your policies and build reforms to last and we need the international community to stand by them. at the imf, we have done unthinkable things over the last few years. we have injected $1 trillion

through special rates and lending into the world economy and we have particularly targeted low-income countries. we are going now to make sure we have this strength for them. >> that was the managing director speaking to us after her speech in jordan. julianna, you and i were talking about the theme of the economic divergence that the u.s. and india are bright spots in the economy. you look at eurozone and it is still tracking at 2% below pre-pandemic trend. emerging markets are 3% to 4% pre-pandemic trend. for growth, the outlook is much lower than it was pre-pandemic. they have averaging growth of 3% in the next five years.

pre-pandemic was 3.t8%. >> what is the proposed remedies for the countries poised postruggleto struggle in the years ahead? >> we did not get into it with the interview, but we did get into the resources and financing of the imf. if you look at what they leapt o lent out, theyand you see wherey need more money. china's coaquota with the imf i still at 3%. it is still based on quotas when china was an emerging market. it has grown over last decade. many people say they need to increase the quota within the imf, but inside that is more

voting power. >> so much to grapple with. >> it is a big wione for them. structure reforms in germany are a must as well which is a topic at imf. and join us at marrakech to discuss the state of the global wh economy. i like that shot. >> it will be an amazing forum. i certainly look forward to it. >> the set up is like a suite where we're sitting. >> if you have questions you are interested in sending around the imf next week, you can get in touch with us with us. coming up on "street signs," we will take a look at the utilities basket as rising rates put stocks under pressure.

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on mobile and desktop today. welcome back to the program.

european equity markets starting out the final day of trade on the front foot. stoxx 600 is up 0.5%. this follows overnight trade in asia positive across the board. we have had a late-stage rally yesterday with the market pare back steep losses. investors brace for the all-important september non-farm payroll report this afternoon. breaking it down by region, it is broad based gains. you have performance in the italian market. ftse mib is up .30%. up .60% in germany. philips is under pressure. it is not satisfied with the

s status of the recall with philips. the german index is trading higher this morning. from the week-to-date perspective, still quite red overall despite the gains this morning. negative back drop as we head into the final day of trade. 1.8% leower for the ftse 100. dax is down 1.5%. similar for the cac 40. back to today's trade. this is what the sectors are doing. i want to take your attention here. we are seeing underperformance in the food and beverage space. down 1.7%. the next worst is utilities down 1.7%. let's look at what is moving in the stocks. food and drinks makers are increasingly moving away given

the fears of the diabetes drug could disrupt the industry. investors have high hopes with the pharmaceuticals industry, but it is at the expense of food and beverage. you have ab-inbev down 4%. heineken is down 1%. nestle is down 2%. big moves to the down side. joumanna, this follows the move yesterday. this feels the trade has been under way for a little while now and has been gaining momentum over the last couple days. >> julianna, i know this is a story you have been following closely. you had the video of the impact of the obesity drugs and what it will do to the pharmaceutical industry. we are seeing ramification on the food and beverage industry

with the side effects of people wanting to lose weight and choosing a healthy lifestyle. in this case, what we are seeing all of those brands that are responsible for chocolate and crackers and cookies and processed foods are coming under selling pressure. i have to say i never thought that it would be this impactful. the fact that the trying is doing so well has the ability to bring the likes of coors and pepsi and all of the stocks down 5% this week alone. that is significant. you could be concerned if you are an analyst or involved in the space. >> i think the most surprising element here is the speed with which these companies are seeing an impact and speed with which stocks are reacting. these drugs are only approved recently. the major study that came through this summer was in august which paved the way for more insurers to cover the

drugs. it is such early days. it is extraordinary that we see such an impact so quickly. walmart, and this may have been part of the trigger of selling, walmart came out speaking to pl bloomberg saying it sees an impact of people taking the drugs. walmart is comparing shoppers who pick up a prescription at the pharmacy and comparing the people who buy the drugs and shopping behavior to those who are not and they are already seeing patterns in the spending groups. where the group buying the drugs are buying less food. >> that is good for the grocery or fruit and vegetable types at grocers that bring more healthy products to the market. it will being interesting to see who the iwinners will be from te obesity drugs. >> my sense is they are trying

to understand the ripple effects. the first-degree impact is the reduced demand for alcohol and junk food. beermakers are hit hard, but the third degree is what is the benefit? >> we well keep an eye on it. consumer goods is the worst performer this week. the fda is not satisfied with the status of the recall of the philips products after discovering the issue with serious injury. the fda does not believe the testing philips has shared to date is adequate. philips will provide additional testing and the fda had no concerns of the validity of testing. speaking to cnbc a week ago, the ceo roy jacobs says he is focused on safety.

>> this is painful for all patients that have been hurt by this. i've apologized for that and i also said we need to see how we can remediate thepatients to get the new products. 99% of devices have been replaced. patients which had the device have a device they can use in their sleep. we are focusing on how we can make sure that there's no harm to get testing to prove no patient harm was done. that is important for the patients. there is a lot of patient focus on that. you heard me say that the first priority for me company wide is patient safety and quality. we want to guarantee that anybody who uses a philips product, they can be assured it is highest quality. and gsk raised 900 million

pounds to spin off the haleon industry. it reduced the stake to 4.7% from 10.3%. and in the oil and gas space, shell is expecting trading to poboost the third quarter earnings. it is down on the year with lng production is expected to dip, but remain in the earlier guidance. the corporate division is expecting a loss of $400 million to $600 million. down from $654 million in the second quarter. let's look at oil stocks and how they have performed during the week and underlining price of oil. oil is the weakest sector week-to-date down 5.8%. you can see the underline oil price week-to-date with brent down 9% and similar for wti.

oil stocks this week and here is what we have seen in europe. bp down 5.8%. massive moves to the down side in energy related stocks. utilities which are dependent on power prices have had a tough year under performing by a subst substantial margin with double digit declines. one driver of the decline is the raise in rates with the di dividends less attractive. you see the orange line on the screen is the utilities compared to the benchmark. a strong under performance. what is going on in the sector? we have the head of credit

corporate research of european utilities at ing with us. thank you for being with us. the utility sector has a ton of attention with the under performance in both the u.s. and europe from the equity perspective. i know you are coming at this from the credit perspective. i love to get your take at a high level. why the beininvestment communit downbeat on utilities? >> good morning. i would say that european utilities are still doing financially pretty well so far. in the higher interest rate environment, there is an impact, but this impact is more on the investment plan which is worrying the equity communities. let me come back at performance with power prices going down,

but remain elevated. the bill to customers is still pretty high and they have high revenues from that. now the question around interest rates is interesting. of course, this is not only for the utility sector, but to give you a couple of numbers about the european utilities, two years ago, issuing new debt cost less than 1%. today, it is very close to 4%. this is not alarming because we have seen interest rates already six or seven years ago. it becomes a concern as far as the huge investments. the thing is the huge investments are here to bring a co2 reduction and to drive the sector toward more green energy. for that, you need to issue debt. the problem is that new debt at

this price coupled with higher material costs makes some projects very expensive. we have seen in the last few months a few utilities renouncing some of their projects. for instance, in the u.s. and in the uk. this has an impact on the equity markets. it is the investment plan and how cost livly the plans have become. >> is it a matter of reduced profitability given the cost profile will increase for the utility companies or are there concerns about the credit worthiness of the companies as they take on more debt to fund these investments that are needed? >> i'm not so much concerned about higher interest rates. i think the european utilities is made of european utilities that are invested across the

globe and financially very strong. indeed, it is about future return on projectis. your profitability goes down with projects more costly. >> that is a theme across re k renewable space given the oil investment. that is a different story, but has a theme. is there a wedge between what politicians are trying to achieve? say in europe, they want 80% of power generation to come from renewables in the future? it is easy to set targets, but where are the companies getting the funding? >> exactly. it is becoming a challenge. i think the challenge started a few years ago. european utilities are going to

invest $150 billion this year to become more green. of course, part of the investments can be financed through a cash flow generation. it has to be financed also by debt. i think what utilities want is clearly a guarantee on the power prices that can charge in the future and this is not always the case. we have seen a number of countries in the uk or in spain with options for renewables totally unsuccessful because the price offered was not the highest expectation of utilities. >> very clear. thank you so much for joining us today. fascinating to hear insight on what is going on within this space. it hasn't been on a lot of p pe people's radars.

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welcome back to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. remarkably resilient. imf managing director georgieva saying the economy is holding up. she has this advice for central bankers ahead of the annual meeting next week. >> first, continue to be vigilant. we cannot afford to lose the fight against inflation. second, be data dependent. third, communicate your intentions clearly. european markets look to close out a volatile week on the upbeat note, but investors lose

their appetite for food and beverage with obesity drugs picking up. and the president metsola is urging people to step up saying the bloc cannot do it alone. >> the eu remains the number one supporter militarily need our t allies. i'm confident that president biden will continue on the track to live up to the commitments made. and investors brace for september's non-farm payroll data with the hopes a weaker reading to push the fed to the end of the hiking cycle. welcome back to the show.

european leaders reaffirm support for ukraine at the meeting in spain. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy, who was in att attendance, stressed more support was needed in the winter. eu council president said this will roll into the eu which is a key topic to be discussed at the su summit. >> it means the candidate countries have reforms to implement and they know what they need to do. on the eu side, we need to get prepared. this is the first time for many years that you have such a high level debate on such a fundamental topic. >> let's get to sylvia in granada who is monitoring the latest from the eu council. the big question, sylvia, is the future of ukraine and the role within the eu.

there were talks that the discussions could start as soon as december. what are you hearing from the leaders? >> reporter: so, today we have the informal summit with the 27 heads of state. joumanna, one question for them today is enlargement of the eu. that means moldova and ukraine may become members of the bloc. this is a complicated question for the eu. this is not just do the homework and do what it takes to join the eu. the eu has a lot of homework to do. one of the debates they will have here today is how to reform the eu so it is ready to accept more members. we are talking about the eu moving potentially from 27 to 35 members in the future. that's a lot more. that will mean funding will have to change and qualified majority

and policy making will have to change as well. let's see what compromise and message the leaders will have later on today. at this stage, moldova and ukraine are candidate countries to join the eu. they are the ones ahead in the race to join the bloc. having said that, there is a timeline that official negotiations might start as early as december. i asked the president of the european parliament metsola what she thinks of the timeline and this happening so soon. >> once a candidate country applies for a candidate status, there is a period of evaluation and reforms to show the seriousness of the country to join. we have seen full seriousness by the country with moldova and ukraine which is in a hot war

that is not leaving them with any closer resolution to us. now it is up to us as a european union. we will wait for the reports on each of the countries and if the reports show that conditions to take the next step are sufficient, then that is what happens. you open discussions and negotiations. >> you are likely seeing that in december? >> we hope that to happen. we ev we are waiting for the reports to be available in october or november. it is that chance for us to be able to say if ukraine and moldova is ready, then we are ready, too. i'm not particularly sticky about that. i think there is particular lit will. each country has its own path. i'm looking forward to continue to see that both sides are on track.

>> still on ukraine, president, we are seeing political uncertainty from the united states. are you worried that the u.s. will somehow reduce the support they have been providing to ukraine? >> this is not the context of the facts. eu is the number one supporter for ukraine. there is no denial we need transatlantic allies. we are confident, i could use the word, with caution that president biden will continue on the track in order to live up to the commitments made. there is a bit of concern when you see what is happening with congress and trepidation if that will mark the rest of the current biden presidency. this was discussed this morning around the table that we will always rely on the united states and the united states can always rely on us and the transatlantic relationship will occur. we have been always closest. i would rather focus on what is

possible to be done and hope to continue on this track. >> could potentially an election of former president trump derail? >> i would not speculate on the outc outcome of the u.s. election. whether we are dealing now with a war or whether we are dealing with a threat of who abuses artificial intelligence or the digital gap and growth and jobs. when we look at all these subjects, we have no choice, i would say, but to look at the u.s. as a partner. i would not speculate after 2024 that would no longer be the case. i say let's continue to work together and see what the american people will focus on and we are seeing the debate that is very much alive. >> reporter: when it comes to ukraine joining the eu, the fact

that the official negotiations might start as early as december. that does not mean full membership. it might take very long time to see that happen, particularly because the war is still happening in ukraine. with the support from the united states, that is a huge question mark and poses questions on kyiv and with the counteroffensive is not as effective as some would have hoped. there is a realization among european heads of state that they need u.s. support when it comes to aiding ukraine. when the u.s. is more important with military support, the u.s. is more important with financial aid, but ukraine needs both. one cannot replace the other and that political uncertainty in

the united states is not helpful at this stage. >> julianna, i should say sylvia, thank you for bringing that report. it is fodder as you and i head to the annual meeting in marrakech next week. i look forward to discussing these matters with europe and challenging facing europe as we give them context within the framework. that was sylvia reporting from granada. chinese authorities are indicating a softer stance on the bid to ease business regulations especially for foreign firms. according to drafted rules, the cyberspace administration says no government oversight will be needed for data exports if regulators have not stipulated it qualifies as important. china is known for the interest in africa and around the world. i put together a special report

on why china has its eye on latin america. that is on cnbc.com. let's give you context with the video, julianna, i have been busy the last couple weeks. i was in argentina the beginning of the year with my husband and his family. one of them casually mentioned china has a space station in the middle of nowhere in the part of patagonia. why would china have a space station in the middle of patagonia. what i discovered china has a presence in so many different sectors within latin america and starting from the extracted minerals and critical materials with lithium and cobalt needed for the energy transition for infrastructure projects and ports and 5g and space stations. it is really remarkable how much of a presence china has built up

within that country and also with the lending activity. china has emerged in that area. >> it is amazing. china's reach as well as in africa and the investment. the relationship with europe and china souring with italy back tracking on the belt and road initiative there. not a lot of attention on latin america. >> theer the country is, the more they rely on china. they get easier financing from china than from the imf. what happens when things go wrong? i highly recommend you check it out. it was a team effort, i would say, with myself and the digital video team here at cnbc. >> i look forward to watching that after the show. coming up on the program, we

are counting down to the non-farm payroll numbers after the jobless claims showed resilience in the labor market. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "street signs." invest or investors are bracing for the non-farm payroll report this week. analysts expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 170,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%. the imf managing director georgieva says this is more likely to hail the american consumer. i asked why she thinks the american ceconomy is better off. >> we believe the soft landing is more likely and what with we see is first, inflation starting to go down.

the actions of the fed are paying off. second, consumer demand remains strong despite the fact that the savings during covid are melting and labor markets are very tight. what the u.s. is benefitting as well from is less dependence on energy imports. they did not get the same shock europe had to suffer when russia invaded ukraine. >> speaking to cnbc, the chief economist said wages are a key focus for the fed. >> if you look at other things, other than just the monthly report, you see that participation rate is up for prime achge workers. more people are going into the labor market. certain tensions are easing. you see that in average pay which is starting to slow. people who are worried about

inflation and wages really propping up inflation and there is no evidence in this report or in the adp payroll report of pages accelerating. in fact, they have been steadily declining all year. that is a big deal for the fed. it is not just the jobs number, but how much companies are paying to get workers in the door. >> let's talk march gets. simon is joining us around the desk. let's talk about the numbers today and nfp. how low would it need to be for people to think the fed was too optimistic for revisions for next year? >> i think it is the key consideration. will we get a q4 rate hike from the fed? we think that path of a soft landing is narrow. anything sub 150 is sinister. it is a bit of a market tantrum and then the fed will have to

hike. the last payroll figure before the november meeting and anything in line with ex expectations is 160 or 170 is the sweet spot. we think the preliminary data we had is questionable. there are considerable risks sdprisks. >> more people are talking about the american exceptionaliexcept. she said america is the bright spot. they don't see a recession. they are forecasting a soft landing. that is why people are turning bullish on the u.s. dollar. could anything derail the u.s. right now? >> we see it being derailed now to the end of the year. if anything, the channels of appreciation. we have the u.s. exceptionalism story.

we have the broader macro environment in terms of risks. whether it is fiscal or growth. china is about to come to a crunch point. we have to see if they get 5 p5% on that. we don't really like currencies now outside of the dollar. we are looking at the options space and discounting the volatility which we expect coming to year end. this path is from the payrolls or the u.s. economic data as a whole and if you have weak growth concerns outside of the u.s., then the slowdown in the u.s. data can be viewed as detrimental to risk as a whole. >> on that point, it sounds like 150 to 190 is the sweet spot which is a narrow range to see the status quo maintained. what would it take for a positive reaction from risk assets from today's payroll

report? is there anything that would get investors confident to put risk back on the books? >> i think something around the 160 mark and at the same time which is low or consistent to 2% or 3% month to month for example. that is the perfect spot for equities here. the idea the fed can take comfort in the numbers and global markets as a whole . we don't think really the balance of risk is skewed toward that occurring. >> you talked about the u.s. dollar and part of the reason it has been so strong recently with the safe haven characteristics. what is the safe haven currency to be in? >> we are looking at the dollar with safe haven with 5% yield attached to it. that is the perfect mix. we are looking at regional safe

havens especially when we look at the challenging period for european fiscal authorities and eurozone growth as well. the s&p provided a good decision. the japanese yen is not the currency we are looking at. >> i want to ask about the yen. i was going to go there. a disappointment in the bank of japan meeting where they did not do anything. the investors are waiting for them to do something hawkish. they are not quite there yet. do you think we will get a hawkish response from the bank of japan before the end of the year and is that priced in? >> the bank of japan will not give us the full guidance. they don't want to force the issue before the meeting. this is something that markets get too involved with the forward guidance. the bank of japan is telling us they will not do anything until year end and have a look at the data and chances are they will

do it next year. there is a risk here with the staff projections coming out that the bank of japan has the rate of inflation enough. >> here is the thing. we have been talking about it for months. if they move away from negative interest rates, what happens to the yen? >> it will be big. >> although we have been talking about it for last three months? >> i think the fact we have been talking about it so long and markets are hungry for it to occur. you look at outlooks for the year. the call was long yen. it is coming and everybody is waiting for. that we are all sitting the sidelines waiting for the trigger point. the market will overshoot and it will be an explosive day. >> lastly, we have to get you back on with the explosive day should it come. we wrap up quickly on sterling. it bounced since it hit at 120.

>> cable has been giving us a headache. we don't think the uk investment is as bad as the market is looking. we will have that clear divergence with the pmi decision. against the dollar, we are higher currency set to risk which should be a choppy outlook. >> simon, we will leave it there. simon harvey at monex europe. let's get back to markets and see where things stand as we wait for the non-farm payroll report. we have green across the board and ftse 100 up .25%. the dax is up .40%. this green that we're seeing today is not enough to offset the weakness we have seen in yo european markets to date. red across the board. ftse mib is down 2%. spanish market leading losses down 3%. as you can see the broad based

pull back. as for wall street, you have the nasdaq now flat on the week coming into today's session. s&p and dow are lower. this comes after stabilization yesterday. we saw a bit of change of momentum to the upside in thes session yesterday. we started on the back foot. things turned positive. the three majors ended lower. what is in store for today? here is the picture for u.s. futures. very muted start. almost no movement. clearly investors in a holding pattern waiting for the non-farm payroll report later today. >> we gave viewers a bit of a look earlier in the show. of course, we have seen moderation where bond yields are trading. this is the 10-year treasury right now. 4.764.

don't forget that just a couple of days ago, we traded as high as 4.8. we have come back. we are close to the cycle highs. keep an eye on that. of course, keep an eye on oil. we had a tech on the show talking about oil breaking $100. it is down 5%. it has given some vigor to the yield trades. both of those things i would keep an eye on. >> i hope you stayed with us for the last couple minutes. those were the two important drivers of the equity markets this week. >> i'll take t. >> that is it for us. thank you for joining us. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. i'll be in marrakech next week. don't miss our programming. you deserve better than that. i'm hungry, i'm in a hurry, i don't have time to make anything healthy. you could if you had a blendjet. blendjet? it's the portable blender that makes the healthy choice the most convenient choice. i don't know. it seems like a hassle. hahaha!

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5." stocks in a holding pattern ahead of what some are calling the most important economic data of the month. september jobs report. plus, stocks trying to snap a four-day losing streak, but investors may not want to hold their breath. and exxonmobil set to buy pioneer for as much as $60 the bil

billion.