today. we will watch to see if strikes are expanded today. the big three have not been hurt financially yet. sort of on purpose. it is friday, october 6th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "sam bankquawk box" cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. it is jobs friday. this is a big one with a lot of attention. people are now wondering how bond investors are going to react to the number. not the fed. it is not the fed driving rates. the bond market has been doing the work for them.

the bond market has been sensitively tuned to every jobs report or every jobs indication we have with the jolts and the adp number. the jolts showed a stronger number when it came to jobs. as we head into that, you see dow futures up 26 points. s&p up 4. nasdaq up 21. the treasury market, again, everybody is watching. 10-year treasury is 4.27%. the 30-year treasury is below that at 4.91%. crude oil prices have been down. wti is trading at 82.40. we have been north of that this week. the demand picture is the question.

the supply picture turned to the demand. >> we decided it was supply. >> demand. iaea showing a backlog of gasoline. as prices get higher, are consumers less able or willing to pay for gasoline or cutting back on driving? >> fascinating if you believe the fed is not driving any more, then a soft jobs number and that doesn't mean yields fall. >> you suddenly believe the fed will keep rates higher for longer. this is what mary daly said yesterday. she said we will get it back to 2%. the bond market believes we will keep rates higher. >> what if they know the deficits and know what it will cost to finance it and what it means for the supply of bonds to hit the market and the lack of buyers that we used to have for said bonds. the fed was a big buyer.

russia -- >> japan is the other buyer. japan has its own momentum in the domestic markets and things they are trying to push there. they are less likely to buy u.s. trea treasuries in the future. >> i'm looking for yields not to come down. that would scare me. >> that sis a beautiful picture. >> mohamed says stuff all the time on our show. he is on three times a week. he said something in the "financial times" and it is everywhere. mohamed el-erian thinks there is no longer a soft landing. say it here. why is it so much more widely distributed? he said the same thing this week. i looked it up. he has a "squawk box" interview. financial times? it's okay. let's talk about the auto

workers. another part of the labor movement which is a piece of the story. shawn fain is expected to address members live on social media at 2:00 p.m. he used facebook live to announce additional strike locations for the big three automakers. that is the speculation here. it is unclear if he plans to expand the strikes today. that is directionally what seems to be. new offers from ford and gm this week, but no deal has been reached yet. this is interesting. it relates to something that is controversy about. former president trump is backing jim jordan to be the next speaker of the house. trump said jordan has his

complete and total endorsement. jordan is a trump ally. trump awarded jordan the medal of freedom before trump left office. votes are expected next week in the house. if trump needs a speaker, it is the house seat. a couple of lawyers writing this piece. i don't know whether it would hold up. that never seemed to me to be a plausible jutoutcome. i did think it was funny. trump gave some tepid support to kevin mccarthy. what trump said, he said very nice things about me. i like him. >> do you think donald trump's support of jim jordan is help

thhelpful or hurtful? >> does anybody get the votes needed? >> who knows? >> all bets are off. >> there are two seats that are open. two people have left. >> the other part is this is nothing new. h hackery. eight self grandiose reasons. matt wants to run for senate in montana. matt gaetz wants to run for governor. it has been going on for two years. >> it hasn't been going on for two years. they ususpended it with the department of justice. it was on hold. his thing that he is the longest investigated member of the house is because they had other investigations. >> being investigated by someone for tawdry stuff. even used the "t" word.

trafficking? i don't know what was going. we'll move on because you are innocent until something is found out. exxonmobil is nearing the deal to buy pioneer natural resources. the takeover could be worth as much as $60 billion. the two companies were holding preliminary talks. take a look at the shares right enough. exxonmobil down 1.6%. pioneer is up 11.3%. back on april 28th, we asked the ceo about the report that exxon could acquire pioneer. >> i'm not going to comment on any specific rumors. i discount what i read in the press. i put a healthy pinch of salt on it. i said in the past that we are

always interested in a value acquisition. we are generating on cash. cash generation and cash on the balance sheet doesn't change the fit of the acquisition or the synergy or value proposition. >> in july, objection on bought denburry for $5 billion. this is an issue as they spent money on exploration and reinvesting back in. they spent more on dividends and buybacks to shareholders and looking around for deals they may have. they have a lot of cash. >> bigger than anna darko. still fossil fuels, but clean. natural gas? >> it cleaner. let's talk about the story breaking. s.e.c. suing elon musk in the effort to compel the billionaire to testify about the purchase of

twitter last year. eamon javers has more on that. what is going on? >> reporter: good morning, andrew. the s.e.c. filed the action with the federal the court seeking to force the subpoena against who musk who failed to show up. two days before the session, they say musk notified the s.e.c. he would not appear. this is part of the s.e.c. investigation into the musk acquisition of twitter which he renamed x and whether he violated securities laws in that deal. the s.e.c. says musk attempted to justify his refusal to comply with the subpoena by raising for the first time several objections, including objection to san francisco as the appropriate testimony location. they say they offered to conduct the meeting in fort worth, texas or other commission office on

alternate dates. the s.e.c. was met with a blanket refusal to appear. he objected to san francisco because he doesn't live there and rejected to the meeting because he sat with two sessions with the s.e.c. this is part of the effort to har harass him. the commission received thousands of pages of new information and they need to talk to him about what they learned in all this. this is interesting, guys. the s.e.c. says musk cited as a reason to reschedule the meeting is the fact that the new book had been published and has new information about the twitter deal so his lawyers needed time to review it. s.e.c. lawyers are not seeing that as the relevant and seeking to enforce the subpoena. back to you. >> what is the case here? >> reporter: the question is whatdid musk say during the

acquisition of twitter? did he do anything inappropriate with securities laws? we don't know what they are investigating. that is a secret to this day. with elon musk, there is a question of public comments and tweets and question of financing and deal structure. we don't know exactly what the s.e.c. has got or thinks they've got. we do know that elon musk hates the s.e.c. in that new biography, isaacson describes musk with a three-letter acronym. you can imagine the rest of it. elon doesn't like anything with rules or government regulations. >> old news for walter isaacson.

i'm sure he put that on twitter. >> reporter: it's in the book. >> now i'm trying to remember. >> apostrophe. we will talk about musk's other world this morning. x with high single digit revenue growth in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. linda yaccarino shared that information with the investment lenders yesterday. >> that is a red light. we can't clear it up on break. that is bad when you can't talk about it. >> maybe that is a new one. there was another one he used to call him. >> something with yes. coming up, the countdown to the jobs report is on. why the good news on the jobs front could be bad p news for t

markets. i'm not sure anymore. former fed vice chair roger ferguson joins us next on what the data could mean for the next rate decision. we will talk to him about the bond market in general. later, don't miss our interview with florida governor and presidential hopeful ron desantis will join us from a state which has no baseball team left in the post season. he'll join us in the 8:00 hour. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities. experience, expertise, execution. ch anging weather ps are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments?

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i'll say it again.

it's jobs friday. polled forecasters expect an increase in 170,000 non-farm jobs in september. down from 187,000 in august. both of those numbers, if you think back, are less than what we had been seeing in the last 12 to 18 months when we were up in the threes. the unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 3.7%. the report will be a major test for wall street which has been on edge all week about a resilient labor picture or not. joining us now is roger ferguson, former fed vice chair and cnbc contributor. roger, we are only getting back to pre-financial crisis levels. it has been a big and a fast move on the percentage basis.

is some of the angst warranted? >> i think a couple of things are going on in the markets. first is coming to grips with the higher for longer story. i observed a lot of the market move occurred shortly after the fed's recent meeting. it was clear by the way they ch changed their outlook that they will hold rates higher for longer. and the continued equity for the fixed income market and supply and demand conditions. the economy, itself, is performing reasonably well and according to plan which is slowing down and giving the fed optimism they will get to the 2% target. the fed signalled a high er for longer mindset. now markets are adjusting to that reality. >> roger, do you think suddenly

higher for longer means, you know, this greatly increased debt service on our deficits and on our total debt means we are paying those for longer. there is no relief if it is high a er for longer. suddenly $33 trillion is crowding out everything else we like to do with the tax revenue we raise. most of this at these interest rates will be spoken for with debt service. that sinks in. i think that causes rates to go higher. it is like a hideous feedback loop. >> i think year right. the reality is many, many participants or all of the market, has been in the period of abnormally low rates. the last 10 or 15 years were so

low and now there really is what economists call a regime shift. people have gotten used to free money for long periods of time. now they have to get used to a historical normal situation. both real rates and nominal rates. one implication is the cost of borrowing for the government as well as individuals and businesses will be higher than people expect or have gotten used to over the last decade or so. that means debt service level and the interest will go up and be a larger share of what the government spends overall which has the risk you talked about. >> we need to finance everything. who is on the other side of the bond sales? since the fed is out of the market, maybe they'll come back in? china is not what it used to be. other countries as you go around

the globe may have the same. they will have to do it, but need to get paid more for it which is why rates keep going up. >> i'm not sure the rates will keep going up with the way you are concerned, but rates may stay at what looks by recent historical standards to be elevated levels. people need to remember the last 15 or 20 years were the abnormal period. the economy can function with higher rates. it is a question of the transition being relatively ab abrupt. >> becky wants in on this. you had a 25-basis point increase. that's all we had a couple months back. we saw 150-basis points increase. it is not the fed. it we call it unhinged that the bond market is no longer

marching to the tune of jay powell. the bond market is back. judging risk and what people need to get paid to take on longer duration bonds. >> that's a fair point. i think it is both things happening. for long periods of time, markets were discounting the fed stance on inflation. you were expecting a turn to lower rates relatively quickly. it is both things, joe. it is the fed's expectexpectati. they control the short end of the curve and long curve effects that. to your point, a number of other things going on with the basic demand and supply in the markets as the government continues to run deficits. i say it is both. those two things are interactive and creating the dynamic we have been seeing for the last period of time in the markets. >> roger, is the fed happy to

see the market is finally paying attention and getting to the higher for longer attitude? is there a point if it is both that the fed is signaling and the market is hearing that, but other supply and demand issues taking place then we are unhinged and unconnected from what the fed is saying suggests that the fed loses control. maybe a point where the fed says this is not great. >> i think there may well be that point some time. i don't think that point is upon us today, becky. if i heard what some of them said publicly, they are curious to understand what is going on. then, secondly, a number have said over the last week, they expect tighter financial conditions. i think at this stage, they are observing it and taking it on

board with the decisions. i don't believe hthere is a reason for people to panic and this being out of control. the fed will manage the exp expectation here. >> the nasty gdp-to-debt ratio that we didn't have before when we were dealing with these things. it seems like a much bigger percentage of everything we produce. >> if you go into recession, gdp goes down. >> rates stay high. i don't know. even on a friday, i've got a lot of anxiety, roger. actually, i don't. >> roger doesn't seem like he d does. >> roger seems okay. the sun will come up tomorrow. roger, thanks. >> actually it is supposed to rain tomorrow. coming up, slack giving employees a week-long break from

duties to catch up on training courses. we'll talk about that story next. "squawk box" returns after this. since i was a little girl, i have been surrounded by beauty in our latina culture and watching my mom take care of her skin and put on makeup as well as my aunts. beauty is an inherent part of who we are as latinas. i took that passion i had for beauty growing up as a latina and then i turned it into a career. i don't work a day of my life because i'm having so much fun.

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welcome back to "squawk box." slack taktakeing a week off for employees to continue training and education models on the learning platform. the classes range from healthy eating to learning about the fourth industrial revolution. the report says a large percentage of the 3,000 staff have not hit the online learning targets earning higher status is not mandatory, but encouraged. i know there are lots of companies around the country, including the one we work for, that require training. most employees do it be grung grungingingly. they don't provide a week off to do such work. here we are. >> i told you i flunked the

driver test. >> you did it anchoring the show. >> this time you can't flunk it. it's idiot proof and i flunked it. you should see the questions. unbelievable. >> they don't require me. >> if you see someone weaving around that is obviously a drunk driver, a, get up as close as you can and wave to them and tell them you're drunk and pull over. that's what i went with. i cut them off. i make them pull over so they don't -- >> well done. >> citizen's arrest. when we come back, we have the latest on the high profile trial of sam bankman-fried from the prosecutor's arguments against him to his new haircut. we will break it all head to br

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good morning. w welcome back to "squawk box." we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the s&p futures republare up 11 points. and the trial of sam bankman-fried is kicking off this week with opening arguments with testimony from the software engineers. teddy is a founding partner at puck who has a great newsletter and covering this religiously, teddy. the early take as you have been watching this this week. >> it is surreal. just to see somebody who, you know, a year ago, andrew, you and i were interested in how high this plane was going to fly

to see sam bankman-fried who is my age or two rows ahead of me being accused of financial fraud with his parents. he was an aisle down from me and i'm shocked at what happened. the speed is my early take of how fast things can go up and go down. >> teddy, having been in the room and having seen some of the opening statements and the like and you have a good sense of the kind of testimony we will see in the next couple weeks and there is a few with the conventional wisdom which is this is an open and shut case and he will go away for a long time. there are a couple of folks which have an unconventional take which say over the next couple weeks, a jury will be convinced otherwise. do you see that when you hear people say that and say now that's crazy? do you say i can see how that

can happen? how do you see this evolving? >> i think a good way to think about it is what is the story we will tell if sam bankman-fried gets acquitted? how did it happen? i think it happened because there are 12 jurors reaching unanimity on any of the charges is going to be difficult. there are 12 people. they are sitting in jury selection and a wide section of new york. convincing 1 of 12 people that what sam bankman-fried did was quote/unquote reasonable. it was reasonable to expect cryptocurrency to crash. that caroline ellison would have more of a hedge. sam did not convince 12 people, but one juror. he has that charm, sadly, that hooked a lot of people.

what's one more? >> what is your sense that he will testify? >> i think he will not be able to resist it knowing him. i think there is a little bit of nothing left to lose and that mentality can be dangerous, obviously. >> there was a good piece yesterday in "the wall street journal" and i imagine this will come into the case with a person who had seen in the code that alameda was coded, effectively, that they did not need to keep collateral or typically for every octaccount on the system, they liquidate at a certain number. alameda was coded out so it would not take place. he brought that to the attention of sam's lieutenant who may testify, we will see, and all of a sudden he took out the code or

did something to make it look like he was doing something about this. how do you see that? is that the most central piece of the case, do you think? >> i think it is extraordinarily damaging because sam a's defens is i'm overextended guy and building the plane while flying it to use that cliche. in that situation, prosecutors will use that evidence and say this was intentional. this was a fraud because there was foresight. this was in the code to have the back door to allow alameda to do whatever it wants. this was all an sam bankman-fried mistake. every piece of code that contradicts that to show there was forethought put into the mechanics here is extraordinarily damaging. i thought that story undercut

the defense's case. >> teddy, if you boil this down to the simple outline of things which is what i would do if i were in a situation trying to prosecute it, there was massive money missing. funds used like a piggybank to do what he wanted with. i don't know how you argue around that when you were taking customer funds to buy your parents expensive places and using them to give money to all kinds of political candidates. just we have spoken with other people in the industry and they could not figure out where the money was coming from. just boil it down to a bunch of money here and i used it however i wanted. >> sure. prosecutors are going to try to strip away the complexity here. it was interesting in opening arguments. prosecutors did not want to explain what crypto was. it was interesting. they had a dashboard up on the camera in the courtroom. showing here is what a wallet

looks like. when you log in, $50,000, you expect to get $50,000. complexity is sam bankman-fried's friend here. you are right. prosecutors will make it about someone stole your lunch money. he bought himself a bahamas penthouse. that is not right. that is their bones level read of the case. >> teddy, i want to try two defenses out on you to see how they play. >> sure. >> on the coding, meaning what has been called the back door. others call it coding for each client and saying here are the rules for this client versus this client. alameda having a different role. the argument will be made that alameda, as you know, originally took in funds on behalf of ftx. ftx customers were funneling funds through alameda. because of that, this weird genesis of the company,

especially early on, that they coded it out because they were moving money in a way that they wouldn't with any other client on the platform to begin with. is that hold water with you? >> sure. that is not really emphasized, i'll say by defense lawyers in their motions. you know, they clearly want to blame the lawyers as much as possible. that is the core of the strategy. that is a better defense than what we have seen so far. >> in my own reporting, i think you are right. that is part of it. i'm not saying it is a viable one. i'm curious. my other is interesting to me and i don't think it changes the outcome, but you may think differently. it now increasingly appears that actually all the money, the ftx money, will come back. not to say it was the original money, but the total money lost

will not ultimately be lost in part because investments like the one they made in anthropic will be so successful that when people look at the total numbers -- to me, that doesn't change the argument of theft. i don't know if you think that changes an argument for a juror. >> sure. if someone stole your lunch money, but gave it back two years later from speculative investment they made with some other company. >> they stole some other kid's lunch money. >> yeah. you know, a year later. sam got lucky. >> teddy, i appreciate it. thank you. in a new report coming up says president biden and china's xi jinping could meet face-to-face as soon as next month. details are coming up on that.

later, don't miss our interview with dell technologies ato michael dell. th is coming up at 8:00. we'll be right back. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) woah. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel,

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the white house making plans now for a face-to-face meeting with president biden and chinese leader xi jinping. it will take place in san francisco or would if it happens

next month. this is according to "the washington post" report citing u.s. white house officials. the president and president xi last met on the sidelines of the g20 summit which happened last november. you see the headlines now. he said. xi said. they always use that. it never gets old. on the cover of the post. china significant that willing a softerstance on the data rules. cyberspace regulators say no government oversight will be needed for exporting data which is designated as important. that is a change from the past few years with tighten controls using a vague sort of language, if you will, on what could be considered the word important. a signal that beijing is l

listening to business concerns. the public comment period on the new rule ends on october 15th. the idea there is a public comment period is -- is this genuine? >> i don't know. tiktok is very popular. anything we try to do, i don't think we can do it. now xi's coming. >> therefore? >> therefore, all this rhetoric -- we need china and they need us. that's what i decided. >> now you have come around? >> always been there. sort of. >> sort of. >> depends on the day. >> maybe. >> i don't think. when we come back, congress member scott gottheimer will talk about the ousting of kevin mccarthy and the future of the congress. a reminder, you can watch us any time on the cnbc app. we'll be right back.

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let me be clear. nobody is more disappointed than i am. adding to that list of the people disappointed. we will get together as a group and figure out the path forward. there is always a group to have conversations across the aisle? of course. was confidence eroded? yes. we will figure out a way forward. >> that was brian fitzpatrick on "squawk box" yesterday dishowin the disappointment of the ouster of kevin mccarthy. here to talk about it is congress member scott gottheimer. i guess i was going back thinking, wow. this is the group of 34 who work across the aisle.

64. 32 of each party who work across the aisle and who have always been able to talk to each other. i wondered how much tension this put on all of your relationships with each other. this exercise. >> it was an emotional few days. i understand that. i'm really lucky to have great colleagues on both sides of the aisle to work with. brian is a phenomenal leader. these are tough times. we will get through them. i have been on the phone with my colleagues on the republican side and talking about how we move forward and what steps we need next. i guess the 38 days from now we are facing a government shutdown. we have a lot of work to do to protect the country and we avoided the country working together this past week to help ensure our veterans and activity duty military and seniors and children are protected. now we get back to the table.

we are already talking about how we change the rules of the house and we will work together to prevent one person from being able to take out a leader. that is what's next. >> that's where democrats and republicans can see eye-to-eye? both sides of the aisle would like to say this shouldn't be able to happen again? >> we have to work out changes to the rules package and not allow one person like matt gaetz to call the question. we have to work out the rules for more bipartisan governing to prevent the shutdown. the 45-day cycles where people can scream and yell and shut the place down. we have a lot of work to do. i'm optimistic there are ways do this. >> the part of representative fitzpatrick's point yesterday and what i heard from other republicans is the frustration that the democrats could have voted early on.

they could abstain or vote present or say we will not allow this one representative to bring this to the table. we could have voted against that. what happened? their point is you will wind up with somebody less willing to work across the aisle. >> we spent a lot of time and conversations looking for a way to get agreement to allow for more byipartisan legislation coe to the floor. we were looking for ways, but kevin mccarthy said over and over again and said it right after the vote that he did not want to sell his soul to democrats. he would not ask for any deal from democrats. it takes two to tango. it is tough to work out agreement if the other side is not interested. that is what we are facing in the situation. it is not like we didn't try.

some folks said why not vote for him or support him. would you vote for nancy pelosi? this is a very -- picking your speaker or leader is a party decision. it's a decision made within a respective caucus of the majority party. that is a family discussion. i'm not in that family. i'm not invited to that family dinner. these are things they have to work out. >> if you just did it in a vacuum. if you were able to totally do something based on what is likely good for the country and eventually good for the party. i don't know if the next speaker will be any better than mccarthy. we have all of the pressing issues in the next 30 or 40 days. who knows how long this will take? you can figure that out if it throws things into chaos. i'm cynical. i don't expect either side to

not revel and i go back to the merrick garland and mitch mcconnell situation. everyone told me that is totally unacceptable. the worst thing anyone has ever done. if you can do something in politics, you do it with the party. if democrats had been in the same position, they would have done the same thing. that's why i don't be grgrudge for this. that is why the eight guys deserve all the blame. in the perfect world, the problem solvers caucus could have solved that through bipartisanship. it twill never mean anything. when rubber meets the road, it is not your fault, it is the environment we are in right now with the two parties. it is impossible. >> i'm going to push back a little bit on that. if you look just at the past

weekend, we fought and worked together. >> why didn't you reward them for that? you threw him out. you pulled the rug out. >> as i said to you, it is not as if we didn't try or make -- >> you needed more. >> if you are working with somebody who is not interested in talking to you about it at all an and -- >> he is already dealing with matt gaetz saying he made a side deal. he was dealing with gaetz. >> i get his point. you don't get anything out of it. >> he just said he didn't work with you sdp. >> we worked together on the debt ceiling deal and keeping the government open. last year, we worked together on the infrastructure bill and chips act. >> i'm over it. >> joe, this is one of the things that is held within the family. the leader is their decision. joe, if you brought every

republican on here, they would vote for pelosi. >> the first thing they -- >> josh. >> i would be fine. >> we're over time. yesterday, we had bill daly who puts odds at a shutdown at 90%. do you? >> i think it is tough. i'm not there on that yet. it is amazing what can happen when we face a shutdown and people realize what happens with the country and if forces people together. we are working on that. that's the point. the problems with members and what we need to do to make sure it doesn't happen. they don't want extremism. we will work this out. i have phenomenal colleagues on both sides of the aisle. i'll tell you, the members will step up. it has been a tough few days. that's okay. we will get past this. we'll put the country first and get through it.

>> congress member gottheimer, thank you for your time. "squawk box" will be right back.

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when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh good morning. it is jobs friday. the september employment report is 90 minutes away. the markets and fed and

investors all waiting on we will have a preview. exxonmobil in talks to buy pioneer. the stocks are on the move. the s.e.c. taking legal action against elon musk again. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live on the nasdaq market site on times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. we will wait for the jobs numbers coming at us in the next hour. u.s. equities may change at 8:30. the dow up 50 points.

nasdaq looking to open 36 points higher. s&p is looking to open higher up 7.5 points. treasuries are the story and likely to drive all this with the ten-year note at 4.79. we talked about the energy complex. wti is at $82.49. the freight train toward 100 is coming down. we will see if it stabilizes. finally, crypto with bitcoin at $27,657. a mega deal may be brewing in the oil patch. wall street journal reporting exxonmobil is looking to buy pioneer in a deal worth 60 bil billion. the journalist reported in april the companies were holding preliminary talks and on april

28th, we asked darren woods about that story. >> i'm not going to comment on any specific rumors. i generally discount what i read in the press or put a healthy pinch of salt on it. i said in the past that we are always interested in the value acquisition. the speculation is we generate on cash generation and that doesn't change the fit of the acquisition or value proposition. money is not burning a hole in our pocket. >> if it were to take place, this would be exxon's largest since it merged with mobile in 1999. exxonmobil shares are off 1.5%. pio pioneer natural shares up 1.6%. back in 2021, pioneer bought two other big plays in the permian.

you are talking about a huge play with the permian. we mentioned the markets are waiting on today's jobs report. we are waiting. i don't know if i would say the world is waiting or all eyes are on it. >> you would never say that. >> i would not say it. it is not true. there are many eyes, our rviewes eyes. >> all bond investors eyes. >> some may have personal things. scott, how are you doing? let's talk more about the state of the economy. >> i'm keep my eyes off it. >> look at me when you talk or the camera. scott sperling. anything you can glean when exxon does something like this? it is totally exxon in the energy picture? i don't know if it is a better time. >> i think directionally they are making a bet for higher prices over longer period of

time. >> is lthis something anti-competitive? is it mainly tech? >> i don't think this is going to p come under that. i think it more of a doj case than the ftc case. >> it is the levels of uncertainty which they created in the market for m&a are very he high. the courts are bringing that back in many situations. it certain isly has added uncertainty in a certain period. >> we can talk about the interest rates and the fed. you have some beautiful shades

of gray. that's a movie. shades. you were around for normal interest rates for most of your life. >> yes. >> interest rates were normalized. are we okay? >> i like to say to our younger partners. back when we got our first mortgage, we paid 17.5% in the early 1980s. looking at rates that are in the range we have here are not so abnormal. it is not that this should be such a blip that would immediately come back down to the zero rates. one could argue the anomaly was the last decade or so. the forces that have enabled that with the deflationary forces are reversing. globalization. very cheap energy prices driven by the technology innovations in the u.s. with the hydrolic fracturing, fracking, which brought energy prices down.

it is not just energy, but oil and gas is a feed stock for other products. those are very deflationary forces. the interest rates brought down the cost of capital dramatically. the fact that the fed expanded its balance sheet from $1 trillion to $10 trillion and now $8 trillion. it is historical. those things are going away. that suggests to me whatever higher for longer means is going to be longer and i suspect it will be maybe not quite as high as we have now, but it will be higher. >> although we're at the low end of the range, it could still be painful given debt-to-gdp and trying to finance the deficit. >> this is another one of the great uncertainties. our government and its wisdom decided the massive amounts of debt -- we basically doubled our

national debt in the last seven years or so. we tripled it in the last 15 or so years. we financed that mostly shsh short term. >> it is like a dumb bank. >> that is rolling off. it exacerbates the problems politically. whatever we thought the risks were a few days ago, the events of the last couple days exacerbated those risks dramatically. the nature of the solutions are not as evident given what we're doing with the protection of the entitlements and expansion. we are looking at a world where defense spending needs to go up. we are clearly way behind where we need to be in this particular world. now you are looking at discretionary spending crowded out by massive increases with interest rates. >> just what joe said, a dumb

bank with bad risk managers are sitting around watching this. where does that get you? by the way, we will throw them out and put new ones in who are equally as bad. >> right. we are sitting here with the two most likely choices are ones that over 60% of the american public don't want either. it is a difficult political environment to say the very least. you guys had the conversation with josh about the inability of bipartisanship to come into action when you really need it. >> rubber meets the road. no way. >> i like to be hopeful in that arena. it is hard to see the silver lining. >> you have to be a pollyanna to think it will improve. >> the only thing you rely on is we are the united states and it

tends to have worked out for us over long periods of time no matter what. i think you have to come back to innovation and the e entrepreneurial spirit that typifies the country more than others. >> did you feel hopeless at the end of the '70s and '80s? oil. we were stuck. hostages. stagflation. helicopters collided when we tried to get them out. what happened? suddenly something happened. >> ronald reagan happened. for whatever personal issues, bill clinton was a very successful president. >> successful congress. >> well, he is a democrat who said it was the era of big government has ended, to

paraphrase. i can't remember the exact quote. put in place the policies to drive people back to work. >> why are you hopeful? >> i'm an american. i believe in the country. >> honestly, does that translate to what with you are doing investments or businesses? i stopped listening to the concerns? >> i think we are trying to invest in places where wie thin other secular growth drivers will overcome the issues i just mentioned, including we're more likely for a hard-ish landing than a soft landing. partly because i haven't ever seen a soft landing. i've been through six recessions. every time somebody says something and economists say we will have a soft landing, including in '08 and '09 period.

i'm optimistic there are great businesses to invest in and some sectors will have good growth. life sciences and health care has enormous opportunities as well as technology provides enormous upside. we talked about automation and generative a.i. with the cost structures impact. that could help offset the significant cost of deglobalization. there are lots of good reasons to deglobalize from the national security perspective and employment perspective as well as the supply chain perspective. it is a higher cost. there are lots of reasons to move to alternative energy as we can get. again, that does have implications for the cost of things. so, those are inflationary pressures that need to be offset

in other ways. >> i was fascinated last night. a couple of congress members are bringing near shoring. bringing things back to south america where it is still cheaper and suddenly everyone has a job who is trying to get up here through the border. get it close and in the same hemisphere. no time difference. it is the americas. it is a weird thought, because they're american. not american jobs, but not north american. >> mexico has been a partner of the united states for a long time successfully. the quality -- the interesting comment i've heard from auto manufacturers and others that i know is that it is not just the cost, but the quality that is coming out of the factories which is extraordinary. they have been able to partner quite well with u.s. companies. whether that will be true if you

try to plan it throughout -- >> helping the american worker if you didn't have this flow. i don't know what we will do with the people already here and continuing to come. if they didn't need to come, if they had opportunities and life wasn't so difficult. >> going back to reagan and clinton and bush, we had lots of efforts to try to normalize the situation by dealing with the folks who had come here illegally and having a better legal immigration program. politics has killed the ability to try to get to it. >> no real bipartisanship. >> not there. we need a secure border. we need a good immigration policy. not a bad one. >> you are like a philosopher. it is good having you on. it's good. >> it's a lot easier than my day job. >> yeah. >> thanks. >> thanks.

we have news. retailer shein will promote marcelo claure to be named vice chair of the retailer. he will plan to focus on expanding the supply chain outside of china. shein was founded in china in 2012 and now headquartered in singapore. the bulk of the suppliers are in china, which is an issue. claure making a $100 million investment in the company before he joined earlier this year. >> interesting. when we return, the markets waiting on the september jobs report is coming up at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. up next, we have a preview with today's expectations.

in the 8:00 a.m. hour, we have two interviews you don't want to miss. michael dell, ceo of dell technologies and presidential hopeful ron desantis. we'll be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities. experience, expertise, execution. move to the - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. gold isn't merely a commodity. it's an investment in people and communities. at osisko, we strive to build modern, safe, and sustainable mines

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're an hour away from the september jobs report. futures are a little higher ahead of this. we pulled back from where we were 15 minutes ago. dow futures up 60. s&p futures up 10. f nasdaq up 50. the market is waiting to see what happens before they make moves. steve liesman has more with the report. steve, people are paying attention. >> they heare, becky. the slightest move of the job market could have an impact. strength in the forecast could send into a selloff. that could drive yields up. this could calm fears of the fed to easily hike again in the face of better economic strength. the numbers we are looking for is 170. 187 was the prior number. a tick down in the unemployment rate to 3.7. hourly wages is supposed to be

higher than last month. the year over year is 3.3%. over at citi, they expect all elements of the september employment report to indicate a tighter labor market. job growth has slowed from a three-month average from 400,000 a year ago to 150,000 now. it remains above the longer number of 100,000. wage growth is elevated to the pre-pandemic era. steven stanley is saying it is signaling cooling and weak and it is out pacing consensus expectations which remains healthy. the sharp rise of the ten-year did not come along with rate hikes priced in. a 22% chance of hike in november and 34% for december. markets have taken the cue from the fed speak this week. you have an edge off the

ten-year. that speak has been dovish of another hike. hawkish about keeping the rates elevated for the next year. it changes the narrative. 30,000 each way could have a big impa impact. >> right. >> do you think the fed could bring down long rates if it cut short rates? i think the yield curve. >> i think so. joe, after that discussion yesterday, i went back and looked. if you look at the ten-year from mid-july. 100 basis points higher. i think 50 of that is two elements. stronger growth and surprise issuance. the bond market has been surprised. i think another 50 is the fed itself. changing the forecast and the market, as i quoted paul earlier this week, mis-price for higher for longer. >> we used higher for longer in may. >> did we? >> we knew it would happen.

suddenly it got higher for longer! remember how you did this? you said it this way and suddenly it got much more -- >> how it is possible, joe, a cannabis company, has not embraced high er for longer as the slogan for its product? >> go out and drive cars. >> he's quick. higher for longer, you might be slow. that is a separate issue. >> somebody has to do that. >> joining us with a look at the labor market, we need this conversatio conversation. >> elevate. i brought it to the gutter. >> karen will elevate it. >> i'll talk about p jobs. >> good morning. >> what do you think of the jobs numbers? people care about the jobs number in relation to what the fed will do about it, right? that is the overlay here. let's go for the number. >> i think we're a little more

rosy. we're looking for 200 or 210. >> that's rosy? that's bad sdp. >> rosy compared to consensus. >> the rosiness may be a problem. is it? that's the other piece. is it a problem or does this go back to the supply issue? undoing the supply problems we had or a demand problem? >> i think getting around 200 is not going to freak out the fed. they will react to one number. hon honestly, they would be okay with a gradual cooling. >> flip it around. that may be cool for the fed, if you will, but cool for the markets? the equity markets and bond markets? >> i have to agree with what i heard. the markets were late to figure out what higher for longer meant. i don't think they will love it. >> i think it is more

complicated than higher for longer. the fed will look at higher pay the roll number and say are people coming into the work force to supply that? if the supply is there in labor, then it will not be concerned about that. it will ask what's the price. if the price as in the wage is lower, then the fed will be okay with that. the other thing, andrew, it is complicated and mercurial with the discussion and debate of the job growth and economic growth and right rate of interest right now. we talked about that this week. the neutral rate debate. the fed is perhaps finding that neutral rate, the run rate of the economy is higher than before. why? growth is strong and inflation is coming down. >> we are seeing in the data at linkedin more applications. people are coming back into the market and applying with more

insuran cont intensity? >> how many? >> it depends on the industry. we are saying overall in the u.s., it is 20% increase. it is a couple of applicants per role. it starts to make a difference. we are seeing the increasing intensity and decrease in confidence among workers. >> how much is the linkedin data -- how often are you surprised on a jobs friday as it relates to -- >> i'm always surprised. are you talking about the headline number? >> the headline number, but you are looking at the applications and see companies deciding to put up an application and put one down. there was a time companies had applications and they left it up. the noise in the system and how you decipher where you really are here. >> what we see here is i'm

surprised by something in the data. we see job postings coming down. employers are pulling back and being judicious and selective about whether they he want to f a role. they are still hiring. >> let's say you had a lot of money. >> who says she doesn't? >> let's say you have more than you have and you can put it in a bunch of places. 4.7% for ten years. is that government paying you enough? it's not for me. >> it's not a lot. when you look at inflation, it hasn't come all the way back down. the fed is committed to that. that we know. it is not a lot. >> we have a lot of people. we have to give a lot of people these things. people have to say i'll take 4.7. >> it is a complicated question.

how old is karin? how far away from retirement are you? i'm not asking you how old you are. >> thank you. >> you are getting paid again. now they have 80 cents on the dollar. in the old days -- >> it is like a new phenomenon. you can get a little money. >> 4.7% for ten years. stuck for ten years. >> short end. >> you need people to buy the long-term bonds. >> you have the uncertainty premium there. you don't know if it will go back up or down. >> if the fed is not doing it, who will do it? china? >> it is not necessarily a question of who will buy, but the question is what price will they buy? there are buyers for these at a price. i think treasury secretary janet yellen and the president need to step up and say we are watching

this and this is a concern to us. we have a plan to make the deficit move to a sustainable basis. we had jared bernstein on. he said we cannot do it alone. i want to make one quick point. the jobs number has been revised downward in each month this year. we also know the government said the benchmark revision will be lower. you want to take the strength today a little bit with a grain of salt. >> 170 is the number? >> that's the mark. >> kimbrough. i'll nail it. >> yes. >> it is cool that you are an economist with all that data on linkedin. >> it's the cool. >> it's the data. >> you are cheating. >> i'm not cheating. >> you have more data. >> you will never retire. you don't need income. >> i'm never. >> that's what we see in the jobs data. >> nobody is retiring.

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the ceo of x, formerly known as twitter, met with the company's bankers yesterday. reuters reporting that linda yaccarino reported high revenue growth in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. still to come, a lot more on "squawk box." shawn fain planning to update the big three automakers today. we will talk to bill ford next about what happens with or without a deal. and coming up, michael dell interview at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. we have a big day on "squawk box." michael dell and the jobs number. this is "squawk box" on cnbc. heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

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the clock is ticking for the uaw and the detroit three to get a deal signed. uaw president shawn fain will update the state of negotiations. if no process is made, fain is expected to announce new strike locations. joining us with more insight is former ford ceo and cnbc contributor mark fields. mark, how dire is the situation for the automakers? what are they facing and how

desperate should either side be to get a deal done? >> i don't think the automakers are desperate in any way or form right now with the approach the uaw has taken with the selected strikes. the financial impact to the companies, i wouldn't say is insignificant, but relatively mi minor, with the limited scope of the strikes. importantly, what people are not talking about is although it is not limited in a big way to the oems, but the supply base is shaky. particularly the tier ii and tier iii suppliers. there is still inventory on lots. at mthe same time, they are targeting stellantis and gm which is making people nervous. it is not code red so far, but

oems want workers back in the plants to produce vehicles. that is what fills the coffers. >> what about the union side? by doing this targeted strike, they preserved the strike fund and kept some of the workers from feeling the pain on the issues. >> from the uaw standpoint, as you know, the strike fund is over $800 million. i think shawn fain has been pretty effective in a very aggressive communication strategy and at the same time channelling, if you will, the frustration of workers across the economy. listen, at the end of the day for the union, for shawn fain, as he goes through this, he is saying listen, i was elected as a reformer. i have to show i'm getting tough with the automakers. he is also thinking given some of the other teamsters contracts and things of that nature, he wants to make sure he is delivering a good contract for

his rank and file. the uaw has thought of themselves as a benchmark for labor in the u.s. finally, it is a business model issue. he wants to make sure he delivers a good contract to position the uaw better to go and unionize the import plants. those are the things driving him. at the same time, for the automakers, it is how do you balance yesterday's strong profits with tomorrow's realities and needs. that is why we will see what is announced later this week. it is a good sign. it has been quiet this week. that means both sides are at the table. >> what is a deal look like which satisfies both sides to some extent? >> a great question, becky. at the end of the day, on the automakers' side, we think of the contracts and what is the victory speech for the head of the union to get ratification

after you get tentative agreement? on the automakers side, they know the workers deserve a raise, but they want to do it in a way that doesn't chain them to cost to cripple the competitiveness, especially on the ev side. you will see robust wage gains and movement on cost of living adjustments. i think from the union standpoint what shawn fain has to think through is nice economics to the workers. he has been pushing we want to be able to organize the battery plants. for the automakers, that is a no-go around defined pensions and health care. it is interesting to see how this thing all comes out. you know, finally, both sides need to strike a fair deal.

you can't have a necessity dp -- negotiation without penalties. we have seen this in the late '70s in the uk where the british unions did not care about the competitiveness of the players. that is why manufacturing is a percentage of gdp in the uk which was over 30% in the '70s to below 10%. >> do you think shawn fain has the understanding or not? >> i think he realizes the business model of the union is more membership. with more membership, you get dues and more paying dues and more political clout. where is the win for the uaw if your -- >> that is a logical way of looking at it. is shawn fain looking at it that way or is this a bigger issue?

some described it as a holy war of sorts. >> it could be a holy war. he is citing biblical quotes in some of his live streams. it is all about the members. if they are coming through with strong compensation and shawn fain has to any abthink about t. if he is holding up negotiations because of future battery plants which have not been built or employees have not been hired yet, that is a tough sell to the rank-and-file who are worried about how they will make ends meet. particularly the ones on strike. >> correct. mark, thank you very much. mark fields. coming up, we are getting ready for the employment report for september. that is out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. we will talk about job creation and the economy and much more

with florida governor and republican presidential candidate ron desantis. plus, get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. follow "squawk pod" on your favorite podcast app and listen any time. please stay tuned. this is spring semester at over 13,000 us school districts, which have become top targets for ransomware attacks. but there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook. which is why thousands of schools like the fairfield-suisun unified school district switched to google tools for education. so they can focus on teaching and 22,000 students can focus on learning, knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ ) ever since she was a little ki, all maría wanted to do was bak. kn i'm maría alvarez,ta owner of maría's cakes. and i'm axel, proud to be her state farm agent.

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welcome back. we're less than an hour away from the release of the september jobs report. the futures are in the green. you could call that barely positive sentiment leading up to the jobs report when everything could change. no one is doing anything. no one knows what the numbers will be and we don't know what the reaction to either a hot or cold number would would be at this point. let's look at treasuries. for a while, i thought we could have easily gone to 5% on the ten-year. it could not happen. it could happen today or in the near term. 4.74 on the ten-year. remember when we were below 4%? it wasn't that long ago.

for .75%, we had a lot of angst and action and rhetoric. there is oil which is really interesting at $82. maybe the higher rates are starting to bite. >> right. maybe. may very well be. mgm resorts expecting the cyber attack which shutdown c casinos at las vegas will cost $100 million. it was forced to shutdown the i.t. systems and slot machines and required employees to check-in guests manually. guests facing operations have returned to normal. the hackers did not steal customer information, but access the information on data of people who did business with mgm before march of 2019. mgm refused to pay the hacker's

ransom demands. >> this lays out how damaging it can be. can will be material at clorox. >> they paid 25. >> it didn't work. coming up next, we have some of the top stocks to watch, including nvidia. stick around for that. plus michael dell will be with us at the top of the hour. dell technologies boosting the buyback profits this week. we will ask about that and so much more when "squawk box" returns after this.

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exactly! don't delay the game with verizon or t-mobile 5g home internet. catch it on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "squawk box." today's consumer stat, $17 billion. that's how much online shoppers are expected to spend using buy now pay later this holiday season. that's a jump interestingly. 17% over last year. according to adobe forecasts. let's get to dom chu. someone came of age, didn't they, justin field? >> you can argue he came of age last week but just didn't win. you can say the same thing about zach wilson as well. >> i know. >> it's a very fun time right

now, especially if you're into fantasy football. the bye weeks are setting in, your players aren't getting any points. have to look all over the place for players out there. my niners play the cowboys on "sunday night football" on nbc. >> they're everyone's favorite. >> i think so but i, again, don't want to put the mush on it, don't want to jinx it just now. we have a couple big cowboys fans in the newsroom, we have some bets working on the side. anyway, let's update you on the premarket action. a big possible deal in oil and gas. exxon mobil in talks to buy pioneer natural in a deal that could be worth $60 billion. pioneer shares are up 10%, 11%.

exxon mobil down about 2 3/4%, over 100,000 shares. it would bring together two of the biggest oil and gas companies with operation and land ownership and it would be the biggest purchase by mobil and bigger than their purchase back in 2010. a big deal may be brewing over there. you have next generation, tesla 700,000 shares in volume with news they're cutting prices on model 3 and y vehicles. they'll rain from $250 to 2,000 per car. we are watching then shares of nvidia as well. they've been moving gains and losses here, roughly 130,000

stha shares of volume. the report goes on to say ai has looked into acquisitions while looking into other options like collaborating more with other chip makers. so watch nvidia. >> when we come back, two big interviews you don't want to miss. we'll talk to del technologies ceo michke dell. former governor ron desantis. and we've got the september jobs report. that is out in just over half an hour. we'll bring you those markets and the instant rkmaet reaction as soon as it crosses. box "squawk box" will be right back. ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪

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zon good morning. it is jobs morning in america. 30 minutes and counting until the big number. >> michael dell will join us for a special interview. and gop presidential candidate ron desantis bets big on iowa and weighs in on mccarthy's oust

as house speaker. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. . good morning and welcome to "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box." hopefully it's a welcome back here at cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. equities futures, andrew's looking good. he'll be on in just a second with that nice jacket. got the pocket square going, right? >> yup. >> he's really put together. up 24 points now on the dow. nasdaq up about 14. this is all before the jobs report, which is coming out at 8:30 and i think people are looking for 170,000 or so, which is moderating but still strong. we'll see whether it's above or

below that. 4.79 now on the 10-year. the 2-year could change but you do see the inversion at this point is only about 29 basis points. we're down from over a point. that supposedly indicates something. maybe we're closer to that slowdown the fed has been trying so hard to orchestrate. andrew. >> thank you. computing giant dell announcing an expansion of its stock buyback prlan. joining us to talk about that and the impact of a.i. on the business and a little bit about what's going on in the markets, michael dell, chairman and ceo of dell technologies is here. good morning to you. >> thank you, andrew. good to be with you. >> i want to talk about dell and what's going on in the economy. as we were coming on, looking at that 10-year, what does that say about where we are in the economy and how you think that's going to impact either dell or

more broadly the whole space that you're in right now. >> well, you know, i think obviously the era of free money's over. not necessarily a bad thing. and the way i think about this is that we're probably back to a more normal rate environment, kind of like we had, you know, maybe in the early 2000s. and it's fine. >> it's fine. but fine, when you look out at your business now and you talk to a whole number of investors this week, you're telling them what? >> sure. we talked about really our long-term framework for our business and our strategy and all the things we're doing around a.i., the edge and the opportunities we have. we had $102 billion in revenue last year. we talked about our long-term framework of eps growth of 8% or more. we upped our allocation to share

dividends to 80% of free cash flow, committed to growing the dividend at least 10% a year for the next five years and, you know, gave some guidance on our revenue growth and our various segments and profitability in the segments. and it was a great meeting to share kind of the long-term framework of how we're continuing to build our business. >> but how are you feeling about the next 12 months? even the last two weeks there's been -- maybe it's a realization in the bond market but just that the economy is going to be a lot tougher over the next 12 months than i think people had anticipated. are you seeing that? >> understand i actually feel a lot better than i did earlier in the year. part of that is because, you know, the last two years were pretty amazing from a demand side and we expected demand was going to come down this year. it's actually been a bit better than we thought and it's been improving. you know, last quarter we had

very strong sequential growth and the demand signal continues to be pretty robust. it's really underlied by the ongoing digital transformation. all the challenges out there does not take the need to continue to transform digitally and of course now you've got all this incredible amount of data and a.i. fuel be another wave of growth that really goes, you know, well beyond sort of the traditional boundaries of i.t. >> how much do you think the a.i. piece of this is going to change people's forecast in terms of growth over the next call it five years or how much of this is going to be defensive, meaning it's going to be to maintain market share but everybody's going to be in the same effective a.i. game in. >> i think it's a little bit of both. some of the gains will be normalized because other firms will accomplish the same thing. you don't want to be the firm that doesn't take advantage of something that is this powerful. and what i'm hearing from our customers, particularly the ones

that -- the largest ones, the ones that had their logos on the building here in manhattan, they are turning the place upside down to capture a 20 to 30% product efficiency improvement opportunity from a.i. and regenerative a.i. >> so that's the server business for you. >> it's servers, storage and we believe that a.i. is coming to your pc. microsoft is talking about the co-pilot and increasingly, you know, a.i. is in small devices, it's at the edge, it's in retail stores, it's in manufacturing. everywhere there's gigoing to b inferencing of information to create better outcomes. ultimately this is about how do we make the world safer, healthier and more important in all human endeavors.

>> when you talk to a.i. with their logos on the building, your sense is they're nervous? a lot of those companies do have debt on their own books. the question is as we see rates continue to increase, we're going to have the jobs number at 8:30 this morning, you know, how that plays out. >> i wouldn't say it's an all clear signal. but the digital transformation, the a.i., the security, the how do you enable your workforce with the right tools, you know, how do you create this intelligent edge, how do you build the next generation networks in terms of the communications. those things have priority inside organizations. >> how much do you feel, though, it's going to be an efficiency -- the reason companies are investing in it is you think it's an efficiency play. i don't think it's affecting things just yet but how do you think about the impact on jobs longer term inside dell and for your customers? >> you know, ultimately i think

this is going to result in an expansion of the economy, as other waves of technology have. but, you know, it's obviously imprecise. any technology sort of creates jobs and also destroys some jobs. >> right. >> so, again, all this is about how do we augment human capability and make, you know, all of humanity more successful. and ultimately i think that's going to grow the economy. >> do you sit around when you think about planning, hiring plans for the next year, two years out or even when you're selling some of these products to your clients, are they saying, you know what, if we buy these products, these services from you, michael, the good news for us is we're going to be able slow our hiring plans in the future? >> or dedicate more of the freed

up capital resources toward new growth initiatives. it will be some of both. >> is that similar for you, too? >> sure. >> where do you see the opportunity in that regard then? >> you know, it's sort of this continual process of i'm going to take you back to the mid 1990s, all right, and this thing called the internet came along, right? >> right. >> it's like you mean, wow, i don't have to call on the phone to order my computer? i can go online? our sales force was like, oh, what's going to happen? it turns out the sales force got to add a lot more value and became more productive and now the company's obviously a lot larger, sales force is a lot larger. i think you'll see again productivity enabling people to have more fulfilling jobs, to do more important work and solve more important problems. >> i want to pivot to china. one of the things you've said,

you told the nikkei you're trying to phase out and a lot of clients are talking about how can people phase out getting chips from china and other supplies. where are you in that? >> that's not what we told nikkei. that was not really an accurate story and didn't have any actual dell sources. what we've been doing for, you know, the better part of the last seven or eight years is building a more resilient supply chain that has served us very, very well. so, for example, during the pandemic, we gained in our client business roughly $5 billion in revenues and our principal competitors gained zero. because we have a more resilient supply chain. so china continues to be an important market and an important source of supply, but as you know, there's been great investments in other countries to build that resilient supply chain.

>> so the other flip side of this, which goes to the inflation story, do you believe as people become more resilient, the cost of everything goes up? in terms of the margin issue. >> there's definitely some cost by it's our job to make it go away and to make it affordable and to find ways to drive efficiency. >> how big a market is china for you? >> it's, you know, kind of, you know, mid single digit percentage. >> as you're watching this whole debate play out in the united states about whether we should be in business with china, whether we shouldn't be in business with china, whether they're a national security threat, where do you land in all this? >> first i would say what we have today is not the global optimizing strategy for the world, right? but you've got this geo political tension around, you know, various issues, right, that are the present-day issues.

that's driving policy decisions in terms of no chips for you, right, and all these kinds of things. and we just have to deal with the environment that we have. certainly we talk to the policy makers, we share our thoughts and ideas and, look, i think, you know, we don't get to make the rules, we just -- >> but do you worry more about whatever the rules are going to be in china or do you worry these days more about whatever the policy makers are going to set the rules in the united states about doing business with china in. >> have to worry about both. i don't think there's an active effort to prevent us from selling our products in china and it continues to be a large end market for us, but, you know, the sort of security and access to critical technology

concerns are real so we have to balance all that. >> michael dell, it is great to see you this morning. we appreciate you being here in new york, no less, and hopefully we'll come out and visit you in austin soon. >> great to see you. thank you. >> joe, back to you. >> a new report from bloomberg says the december 31st deadline for liv golf is likely to, pushed at. the pushed back. a potential delay would mean liv and the tour would continue to live separate lives. they have a separate tour scheduled next year. it would be too late if it didn't happen by then. not going to happen in 2024. >> when we come back, the september jobs report, we are just a few minutes away.

next, a special interview on ron desantis on the 2024 race for the white house and this year's gop upheaval in washington. stay tuned, this is "squawk box."

here in hawaii there is always time. there's time to spend with family, time to enjoy with friends. there's always time to listen or lend a helping hand. here we have all the time in the world, but no time to waste.

presidential candidate ron desantis is moving about a third of his campaign staff to iowa as he tries to gain momentum against former president trump. joining us now on that and the gop chaos in the house this week is florida governor ron desantis. welcome, governor. been a long time i've wanted to have you on the show. it's good to see you. >> good morning. how you doing? >> we're doing good. with that intro, i guess we'll talk about those things. what i really do want to get to, though, is whether you believe that some of the successes you've had in florida, both economically and a lot of other successes, whether it's possible to do that on a national level. that's what i think sometimes it's hard to imagine but i want to hear you tell me that you can

in a second, and i'm sure you don't watch drudge or look at drudge but the headline today is "ron downloads on don, biggest attack yet." so you did step it up on directly taking on the current leader for the race for the nomination, donald trump, former president trump. >> well, this weekend he said with his famous promise of 2017 he was going to build a wall and have mexico pay for that. he said, well, there was no legal mechanism for me do that. you can't just ask them for money for a wall. that was basically a central promise, so that to me was something i was taken aback by. but the thing is, you actually could have mexico pay for it. they're not going to just check you a check, you impose fees on remittences from people sending money back from mexico and other countries. he was advised he could have

done that and didn't do it. the choice for republicans is do we want somebody who will produce the leadership and results that will turn this country around. what we have in d.c. is theatrics, it's performative but doesn't produce results for people. i'm not an entertainer, i'm not running a soap opera down here. the results speak for themselves. while they have added massive amounts to the down, i've paid down 25% of florida's debt over the last four and a half years, we've cut taxes, we have surpluses, we're number one in the economy, number one in education by "u.s. news and world report." we've taken on school choice, gone after esg and reformed higher education.

it's really about leadership but the leadership has to be focused on producing results. politics and governance do not show and what we've seen in washington over the last week is a show. i don't see the results that they're delivering, even though they all ran saying they were going to do these great things in 2022. >> governor, we've heard that governors make better presidents, we've always heard that, because they've been a ceo of a state, but given the events of the past week, can you see that a president in an environment like that with a divided congress and with so much tribalism and so much partisanship, it hard 's hard f anyone. i'm not saying you're an autocrat in florida but i don't see how you can get the same

thing done on a national level. you can make a case can you do it but i don't think you can. >> one, the current president is missing in action. joe biden is not exercising leadership. he's not working hard. he obviously lacks energy. i'll be a much different president. we'll be energetic and we'll be out there. but i also understand the authorities of the office, i know how to use leverage and then i also know how do you actually get this stuff in for a landing? for example, all the things we're talking about now, we're thinking of an eye towards january 20, 2025, how do you get it done? budget wrecreconciliation in th senate. we're not just flailing around. we have a plan to get it done. when i got elected, florida was viewed as the most significant closely divided state. most of the races were one-point races, governor race, presidential races. i came in with a narrow margin and we ended up turning that into a 20-point victory.

we brought people together. the far left, we fought and weep b we beat the far left. there's a strong majority of this country that wants a restoration of sanity, they want to see government focus on their needs and not the needs of the people in d.c. and that's what i'll represent and it will be a bottom-up movement. you remember president reagan, he had a democratic house his entire eight years and he was able to do a lot of great things. it wasn't necessarily because they were back slapping. i know people talk about that. it was because reagan appealed to the constituents of these members and these constituents said, guys, it's final to get stuff down. >> what might work locally in florida might not work nationally either. i'm thinking about the fight with disney and all the ramifications from that. some people tie difficulty with getting more traction in your

campaign with what worked in florida. you've heard from both republicans and democrats why are you messing with corporate america? i mean, a corporation, usually a republican or conservative, would be loath to get involved with the workings of a private company. you know, and then democrats don't like it because they think you're anti-lgbtq. as a result you're trailing trump by 30 or 40 points. >> i don't think that's the reason. corporations used to try to not get involved in imposing agendas on society. the idea a corporation would fight against a parents rights bill, that a corporation would want to have kindergarten students taught they can change genders or that their gender is

a choice, it's outrageous. we want school to be focused on the basics. we don't want this stuff injected, particularly in the elementary schools. so it was an important fight to have. we won the fight decisively, but i would also point out disney had an obnoxious set of corporate welfare benefits. that is not good policy nationally. what we want is we want clear rules and we want people to be able to compete, but it is wrong to pick one favorite company and give them extraordinary privileges and that was the legacy of florida for many decades and it evolved in something i think wasn't maeant to be. but we have a level playing field now. universal sea world lives under the same rules as disney does. we were right on the substantial with parents rights and about

fighting back against sexual in the elementary schools but we're also right on the economics. one can't shouldn't be exempt about rules that apply to everybody else. >> you were taken to task about a week ago on the situation in ukraine. they did this based on your answer in the last debate on stage just clarifying what you would do when it comes to ukraine. you said you would not give a blank check. they say that's a red herring because nobody's offering one. they say you'd bring peace but they want to know would that happen at the expense of caving to vladimir putin's demands? >> they have done a blanc check. when you're having u.s. tax dollars fund the pensions and salaries of ukrainian bureaucrats, when you have u.s. tax dollars funding small businesses in ukraine,

subsidizing agriculture, that is a blank check, especially when we have so many problems here in the united states. our own border is a total and complete disaster. yet the elites in d.c., they don't care about that. they're not taking action to stop that and defend our own country. i don't think you do it in a way that benefits an aggressor but the people have not articulated what the concrete victory looks like. if you look at our foreign policy during the last 20, 25 years and i was part of this as a naval officer in iraq in iraq during 2007 and 2008. we had murky missions where

there's not clear cut plans for victory and it drags on and on. and i think there's a lot of people in congress saying you've got to define the mission for us so we know we're doing. they on the editorial board, they would fund this indefinitely and they just have a different view. my view is is everything we do should be based on america's interests and if you tell me that funding the pension of a ukrainian bureaucrat is in america's interest, i don't see how you can sell that to american taxpayers. >> governor, i want to return to the way you think about the role of the government and policy as it relates to business and specifically just speak to the disney issue again in maybe a different way, which is this -- i think there's a fair debate, i think everyone would agree there's a fair debate about whether disney should or shouldn't get the tax benefits given to them in the 1960s in the state of florida. the issue is the timing and the

relationship with which you pursued undoing those tax benefits, the corporate welfare you talk about, as it relates to their decision to publicly effectively go get on the other side, if you will, of the bill that were involved in. and you said very specifically to the american conservatives and bradley and devellyn and many others in interviews that the timing was completely related. that's why people look at this and say this is retribution. what do you say to that? so i missed you on the last part, i cut out but i get the general gist of it. so here's the deal. yeah, they opposed the bill. that's fine. i don't think that's consistent with their fiduciary obligation to their shareholders, i think they hurt the company in pursuing a political agenda in a whole host of reasons but they also said they were going to try

to get the bill repealed and get it struck down in the courts. do they have a right to do that? of course. we are not obligated to subsidize their attacks against state policy. they were getting massive sub dis which were not justified in and of themselves but it's doubly -- i think it was an issue that had long been something that was not public live justifiable but they had a lot of power with the florida legislature over the year. they really called the shots. then when they got into this and said they were going to try to get the bill repealed, that really caused their support in the legislature to evaporate. a lot of the legislators were saying this is not something that could go forward. i don't think there's another situation similar in the entire united states where one company was given basically control of its own government in central florida.

the larger issue i think is how much is corporate america going to be trying to exercise quasi public power. and we see that through things like esg with some of the big asset managers, also some of the major corporations. my view is is that, you know, policy should be set by people that we elect, and to have a bunch of wall street banks get together and say they're not going to finance somebody who is running a gun store or things like that, well, you know, that's changing policy in ways that are not accountable to the electorate. i think there should be protections for people. >> we got about a month left. that's the only reason i'm cutting you off. i want to get to this point. the latest strategy may be to go to iowa. every candidate in the race, former president trump looms large. i don't know what his base is so you're all left with trying to not alienate necessarily 35%, whatever number you want to use

of the republican base, you can't really alienate them because you need them to support you but you need to differentiate or distinguish yourself from president trump. hillary clinton just said something like maybe that cult needs to go to some reeducation training or something just to get out of the trump cult, but you see what you're up against and how difficult it is. >> i reject that. i mean, look, these are patriotic americans. >> how do you keep them, though, if you attack president trump? you've had trouble walking that fine line between really attacking him and not wanting to alienate his supporters. >> there's a lot of differences. this is all fair game. these folks get it. they want to see the country do well. some people will be with trump no matter what but i think the bulk of the people who appreciate what he did. they also understand he's got limitations in terms of his electability. he'd be a lame duck if he could even get elected. i think he'd have major problems

with personnel and he didn't deliver on core promises to drain the swamp, have mexico pay for the border wall and he didn't eliminate the debt. and i've delivered on these policies better than anyone. >> in about eight second, we got these jobs numbers. that's the only reason i'm cutting it. >> no worries. >> great. please come back. thank you, governor. >> let's get right over to rick santelli with those numbers. rick, take it away. >> yes, jobs numbers for the month of september, non-farm payroll, a whopping 336,000, much stronger than what was expected in the 165 to 170,000 camp. and if you look at the unemployment rate, it remained at 3.8%. it remained at 3.8%. and if we look at average hourly earnings, they also remained up

0.2 of 1%. now quickly, up 3.8% happens to be the highest since jan of '22, so we remain at that level even though it's two months running and on wages average hourly earnings up 0.2, it remains the smallest of february of '22 with back-to-back months and average hourly earnings 4.2%. that is the lowest level going all the way back to june of '21, 4.2% and average work week prks 34.4. we've had a lot of 34.4. 34.3 happens to be the lower realm but we're very close and 62.8 on the participation rate, it remains there. that's back to back, which means

best since february of 2020. and finally, what i refer to is the underemployment rate is 7%. that was 7.1. 7.1 was the highest since february of '22. i don't see the revisions, i don't see the revisions because we do have a record i want to pay attention to through july everybody month has been revised lower first time since record keeping in 1979. interest rates have moved higher. we've moved basically up toward the 479 to 480 level and if you look at preopening equities, they have moved lower. obviously it the headline number of jobs because one could make a case that much of the rest of the data is actually on the softer side and we want to pay very, very close attention to how ultimately this moves the yield curve, which by the way, 2 to ten is at minus 29.

back to you and the personal, becky. >> that is a lot to digest. we've got jasonfurman, professor at harvard's kennedy school of government, tyler goodspeed, the former acting cea chair and sarah malik and of course rick is here with steve liesman. >> the revisions are up. they've all been down until now and i think weep added 119,000 jobs in the back months and that's strong. the unemployment remaining unchanged. no addition to that long-term unemployed. you're showing a lot of strength here but you also have maintained this participation rate which is good. i think the fed would look at this and say we seem to be

having the workers and they're not coming at a higher price. so the 0.2 on the wage number is going to say we have strong employment, we have the workers to fill it and they don't appear at the moment to be demanding a whole lot of extra money to come back to work. we've seen some of the job growth where we saw before, i think i saw a number in leisure and hospitality of up 92,000. that's a big number. we did have a 29,000 jump in state government education. there's been some seasonal adjustment stuff of how many teachers were fired or hired or came back so we kind of expected a pop there. but when you put together this blow-out number together with the prior two upward revisions. >> and the jolts report from earlier. >> minus 250 on the dow. >> you get minus 250 on the dow but you also get a big kind of slap in the face to those fed officials that have been saying we're seeing softening in the

labor market and that's what we want to see. so i don't know that the fed is in a place right now where they're going to be abandoning their belief that in order to bring down inflation, you have to soften the job market. >> look at the jump we've seen in the 10 year and 2 year. 2 year is 5.14%, the 10 year is above 5.8%. those are significant jumps we've seen since this number hit. sara, the move in the market, is that an overreaction to you or does that make complete sense given these numbers? >> this headline number is going to shift the market. that's going to be negative for the markets. there are a couple of silver linings. labor force participation and average hourly earnings. but we need to dig into non-farm payrolls and look at what are revisions going to be? they have been negatives most of the year so that could be a positive. and are professional services

continuing to grow. i think the jobs number was mostly just noise in this number. the markets have to wait for the next catalyst, which is going to be q3 earnings and see if the companies are still working their earnings and margins. >> jason, you were worried a long time about the fed's activities and what this means. it may not be the feds calling the shots. >> my first reaction was shocked. my second reaction was feeling die decently good but them. we're creating jobs at a clip of over 300,000 a month. maybe what we're seeing here is labor supply, not labor demand. some evidence for that is average hourly earnings, it is just the low number this month. over the last three months they've risen at a 3.4% annual

rate. if that continue, that is fully consistent with inflation in the mid to low 2s. my biggest worry is that prices have been moderating but that it wasn't going to be sustainable because you were going to continue to see very rapid nominal wage growth. with that wage growth coming down, maybe what we're seeing here is labor supply increasing, jobs being strong and you can do that without inflation. >> so meaning all of these people that hadn't been working to this point, who hadn't been working to their full potential because they had excess savings from covid, they've run through the savings and they're coming into the jobs market and employers don't have to pay them more because they need the work? >> you should be teaching my class instead of me. that's exactly right. plus you have a bunch of immigrants coming here, too. in terms of the fed, the 10-year is doing so much.

given what we saw in wages here, i don't think there's anything here that should move them in that direction, certainly through november. >> tyler, do you agree with all that? >> i think i'm pretty much in agreement with jason. i think the dominant story in the past few months has been one of supply and lo and behold price equillibrates a message. the one thing that has me scratching my head a little bit is i don't see evidence of that supply in the household survey. we did last month, at least in the first estimate. we saw a big increase in the labor force, a big decrease in those not in the labor force. i think the signs for those estimates are correct for the

latest estimates but the magnitudes don't seem to add up. the household survey is a bit more volatile and prone to revision. >> jason, i'm curious if you could give us your political take on this. i think maybe you have a love/hate -- i don't know what the current administration thinks to some of your views. but as you now start to think about what 12 months looks like from now, thinking right ahead of an election, where do you think the economy -- what does that economy actually look like? >> yeah. you know, there were all these recession fears earlier. i think there's a good reason they've abated. but, you know, recessions are a roll of the dye. it comes up one, you get a recession. it comes up two through six you don't. maybe there's some things that make me a bit more nervous than usual like the high long-term rates but other things like the

labor market momentum are reassuring. the biggest news is maybe -- maybe inflation is actually going to come down without more action by the fed. >> can i follow up on one more thing than that, immigration, maybe the reason that the jobs market is not having to pay as much inflationary wages? >> a lot of the ceos are not the ones who aren't working, who aren't being allowed to work. but, you know, just processing visas, all of that and, yeah, that both helps demand, it helps supply, enables you to sustain higher employment growth without driving up wage growth in the way way it otherwise might happen.

but it makes it sustainable. it's good for all of us. >> i don't see myself the fed abandoning this notion that the way to lower inflation is a softer job market, even though inflation has come down while the job market has remained relatively strong, i still think they cling to that idea. do you want to weigh in on this? is this something you think forces the fed to reconsider whether they want to do another quarter point or even more in the face of this strong job market? >> so i think it raises the probability that they do another quarter point. there are members of the committee who don't buy that you have to break the labor market in order to break inflation, but insofar as a very strong labor market does give rise to an uptick in wage inflation down the road, that does kind of set a floor below which it's hard for price inflation to go on a

sustainable, durable basis. i would add if you look at the long history of the federal reserve, they have made a fair number of big errors, public errors over the years and the late harvard macro economist julio rotenberg wrote a paper that noted when they make a big error, they tend to enter a period of repentance for the past sin and until there's a big change, they tend not to enter that period of repentance. >> it's well documented how americans feel about the economy, even in the face of a strong market like this. maybe it's inflation, i don't know. when you see consistently strong growth in an economy that's confounded the skeptics, what do

you attribute it to? can we attribute it to keynesian forces of money around, stimulating infrastructure growth and chip development and subsidies for green energy, or is there something that's working organically about those programs that the administration would say they passed on a bipartisan basis. is it working? is any part of bidenomics actually working? >> if you throw a few trillion dollars in subsidies at targeted sectors, you're probably going to -- >> but you say -- >> in an 8% mortgage rate world, that is a world that is scarce in capital and labor. so you're going to be pulling resources and production for unfavored sectors into favored sectors. i would just add that in terms of the disconnect between evidently a very strong economy and the almost recessionary

levels of consumer confidence that we see reported, i think the key to that disconnect is that real wages are well below where they would have been had they continued on prepandemic trend and in some level still lower in absolute terms. i think the decline in median household income is a bug ig far in the economy and the way the consumers are thinking about the economy. >> would you be on cnn in a point/counterpoint with tyler right now? >> partly agree and partly disagreed. in the short run i think this is stimulus. we're seeing a larger deficit that's supporting the economy. in the long run that complicates things. it's higher interest rates and you really do get crowd out. congress decided it was bipartisan, that they did want to redirect resources toward certain sectors like chips, like

infrastructure and then not on a bipartisan basis to some green energy. i broadly think that's right, but i think on the medium term, yeah, that's going to be a reallocation of capital, not a net addition to capital. consumers are reasonably negative. they are much less negativethan they were six months ago. i think they are noticing that inflation is coming down, that they're making up some of the ground they've lost but they definitely haven't made up all of the ground they've lost. >> sara, you are say the next catalyst for investors is really going to be what happens in earnings, what we hear from that. what do we do in the meantime? we're seeing rates up significantly, the 30 year almost at 5%. across the entire board we are watching yields up significantly for this. where do you park in the meantime? do you think this is going to be a scary situation and stay out of the way or do you position yourself? >> well, september is seasonally

one of the worst months of the year and we're rolling into october with similar volatility. i think there will be continued volatility until we get to earnings. i wanted to talk about what's driving people back to work in a moderating work environment for wages. the consumer cycle has benefited from this and we're seeing cracks in that, credit cards are up significantly, the average interest rate on credit cards is about 20%. that could be some of the reason now why people are will to come back to work, are quitting less. why i think it could be a positive catalyst is you're seeing the tip camypical cuts i consensus. i think they could perform well

when they've beaten on third quarter earnings. >> as we say good-bye, becky? >> call it up. this is how many of it it takes. >> you heard of the ocotmoms. >> it's interesting, this gdp. >> we got to go. >> we do. >> got to go. >> all the arms on the octopus today. thanks, everybody, on the job panel. up next, we'll speak with a top portfolio manager on aew n jump in rates. boy, has this been emphasized this morning. you are watching cnbc. one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations.

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rates have jumped after what we saw, the big jobs number. jerome snider, portfolio manager and head of the short-term desk at pimco, i'm ready to stay short-term, jerome. everybody's semiing these long duration bonds and they go up another 50 basis points and you're under water. is it time to go out the curve or not? >> it is time to take a more elaborate look at what fixed

income can offer. there's a lot of uncertainty. when you think about the economic cycle, where we are in the economic cycle, perhaps late, what we have is a consumer who is perhaps weakening a bit. we have job sector which is going to continue to be undulating. we have productivity, which continues to be in question. and you have corporate profitability, which continues to waiver. these are all factors that affects the psychology of investors over the foreseeable future. what it fundamentally means is there's more volatility in the market as we continue this process of trying to reconcile where data comes in and ultimately where the fed reacts to it. >> you said the labor market's been undulating. is undulating a synonym for surging every month? >> it has been higher. it has been lower. if you look at the data today, obviously, very strong from the headline perspective, but average hourly earnings is slightly weaker than the expectation. so, there is some good news in that context, and we have to put it in balance. frankly, the investors, and more importantly the market, is

probably more data dependent than the fed at this point in time, and you're seeing that in the mark to market of treasurys and the rates market. ever since the fed came out with their dots over the past few weeks. and so, we're simply marking to market the relative value of the curve at that point. >> have we seen the return of the vigilante, the bond vigilante? >> not necessarily. but you're seeing the return of a rational investor who wants term premium at this point in time, and the term premium puts us in the ballpark of an attractive asset class. >> if you're going to 7% or 8% long-term, you don't want to buy at 4.7%, do you? >> that's if. there's a lot of road to cover before you get there. effectively, you need to think about things as a sequential element. going to 7% or 8% is not likely in pimco's forecast. but at the same time, there's a longer term prospect where we need to be thinking about how the fed reacts, what happens next year, and there's a lot of factors that come into play, how we think about inflation, wage

pressures. there's a lot of factors that doesn't necessarily portray a slow road toward this digestion. >> does $33 trillion -- does anyone ever say that at pimco? or 150 debt to gdp? aren't those long-term and entitlements that we need to do something? >> away from the political standpoint, when you look -- >> what's political about $33 trillion? isn't that just a reality? >> there's a factual number in that, but you have to look at the supply and demand mechanic, and what you have, joe, is simply that there's more supply coming, and you should expect more term premium, and we've seen that begin to be a function of market pricing, basically the deconstruction of the severe inversion we see in the twos and the tens curve has effectively acknowledged that at this point in time. when you get to the overall rates perspective, where we are right now, there's a big factor in play. number one, that total return is a consequence of how much interest rate exposure you have. but the second component, which is recalibrated significantly, is the income component, and the income component can provide a lot of shield, a lot of cushion

as we continue to move through this process of understanding where, in fact, the ultimate destination for the federal reserve is going to be. >> okay. have a better idea about pimco's thinking now. thank you. "squawk box" coming right back. ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. ♪ ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere?

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welcome back to "squawk box." futures down, rates up. this follows what was a very hot, like double hot september jobs report. joining us now, stephanie link, cnbc contributor. i think we're all trying to make sense of this. you can look at the market right now, looks like it would open up down about 261 points. i think there's a view it could, you know, it could get much worse than that. but you know, you listen to jason furman, and maybe you would say this is a good thing. what do you say? >> i think that good news is good news, andrew. the job market is hot. today's report definitely confirms that. but it's not surprising, because all week long, we have been seeing pretty good data. j.o.l.t.s., initial claims, even challenger gray, hiring plans, intentions were up 55% year over

year, so that's good news. i think pretty good news is average hourly earnings today came in at 4.2%. it's not too hot, right? it's good. so, that's good for the consumer. and the consumer is 70% of the economy. so, i think this is going to translate well into earnings, and i think we are going to see the market stabilize in october, and i think, seasonally, i think we're going to have a run into the end of the year higher. >> but what do you make, then, of the -- i don't know if it's a perverse idea, but maybe a different reality, which is that if you're sitting in the chair of jay powell and going, my goodness, whatever we're doing is not working fast enough, i got to do more? >> yeah. i don't know if they have to do more. they probably just have to keep rates higher for longer. maybe they go one more time, maybe two. is that really going to make a difference? they've already done most of the damage over the last 18 months. >> you've seen where rates have gone in the last 72 hours. there's been a reshift, think in

the marketplace about how long these rates are going to be where they are and what that's going to mean to the economy. we're talking to michael dell and other ceos about that, and what that's going to ultimately do to demand. >> well, it's certainly going to slow things down into 2024. is it a soft landing or a recession? no one really knows. we're going to have to watch the data. but for now, the economy can handle it because we put so much stimulus into the economy. i mean, $3 trillion in infrastructure stimulus this year. that's huge. it's been a huge tailwind and an offset to the higher rates. i'm not saying we're not going to slow, andrew. we are going to slow. but i think the economy is able to handle these higher rates for now, and earnings are what i look at, and for the market, overall, and when earnings go higher, stocks go higher. >> when earnings are higher, stocks go higher. stephanie link, we'll be watching all of it with you. appreciate it very much. let's take a final check on the markets. as we did mention, job number,

336,000, double, effectively, what folks were anticipating. and now some fears, at least, about what the fed may or may not do as a result of it all. dow off about 225 points, nasdaq off about 176 points on this friday morning. the ten-year note at 4.858% right now and the two-year sitting at 4.119%. let's see where the day ends, and we'll see you on monday. make sure to join us. enjoy the weekend. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. september payrolls, a blistering 336,000, more than double the estimates, but wage growth up only 0.2 is the smallest gaining in more than a year. that's keeping the ten-year yield from taking out the highs earlier in the week. right now, 4.78%. our road map is going to begin with the jobs blowout number, sendin