building a stake in buimultiple board seats. it's monday, october 9th, 2023 and "squawk box" starts right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. joe said we are watching equity futures. dow futures down 142 points. yesterday, they opened the session last night down 180. s&p futures are down 25. nasdaq indicated down by 107. the bond market in the united states is closed today. let's look at where treasuries stand. this was after the big run-up in the yields on friday and coming

back down immediately after the jobs number was stronger than anticipated. ten-year closed at 4.79%. crude oil is picking up. joe mentioned the spike, but below the levels from recent weeks. gain of 3.5% to $85.69 for wti. brent is $87 a barrel. the dollar has strengstrengthen. euro/the -- euro/dollar is down a bit. lelt's get to the latest on the breaking news. israeli declares war after the hamas strikes over the weekend. we have kelly cobiella with more from the ground in tel aviv. >> reporter: good morning.

a rapidly changing situation and we are getting information by the minute. you hear the air sirens in tel aviv. we have heard three rokckets fallen on three sites in the south and in the grader tel aviv area as well. we have not been able to confirm that. there are casualties involved in the strikes in the south. israeli defense forces say they hit hundreds of hamas targets overnight in gaza. a difficult situation for civilians. gaza health officials are saying they are struggling to reach the wounded. 2,700 wounded there. nearly 500 killed and power has been cut to that area since the weekend. israel has warned civilians to get out of the way of any possible hamas targets. it is difficult in that area.

it is a small area. 25-mile long strip with 2 million people packed in. a very urban environment and no borders are open in and out of gaza. here in israel, we are hearing this morning from the defense min minister. you can hear the anger in israeli officials in the statement. he said, i ordered a full siege on the gaza strip. no power, no gas, everything is cl closed. we are fighting human animals. the idf called up 3,000 reservists. what is next for the territory in the south and as a side note, we heard of gun battles overnight between the idf and gaza militants in that area. the idf spokesperson saying the military is prepared to deploy

disruptive solutions going forward to address the situation. not elaborating and not talking about any possible details about a ground invasion. of course, there is this very weighty and difficult issue of potential hostages held in gaza. maybe as many as 130 if you believe the reports coming from militants inside gaza. some of them are soldiers. many are civilians. the question is how to get them out and what to do next. i'm not sure that we are hearing a cleara answer from the is rae government. >> kelly, what is it like on the ground in tel aviv right now? maybe can provide the answer here with what comes next in how long this plays out given the density of gaza which makes it seem impossible this could end

any time soon? >> reporter: i'll take the first one -- the second one first. this has the potential to last a very long time. that issue of hostages within gaza is an extremely delicate one. especially when you talk about civilians. we know that women and children, we believe, are being held there. one man traced his wife's phone into gaza. there are militants inside gaza which have been sharing videos purportedly showing women and children inside gaza. for a point of reference, in 2006, israeli soldier was held in gaza for something like five years before finally being released in a prisoner exchange involving 1,000 palestinian prisoners. these things can last an extremely long time.

on top of that, you have the tremendous number of killed. something like this hasn't happened in israel -- it is simply unprecedented. predicting how long this can now last and what the government does next is next to impossible. a ground invasion would be incredibly difficult. that is urban fighting in a dense area with more than 2 million civilians. lots of young people inside gaza as well. hundreds of thousands of young people there. to answer your first question, i think people here in israel are still in shock, frankly. the streets are very quiet. you would normally see traffic jams here in tel aviv on a monday morning. we saw none of that today. i think people are trying to just reset and figure out what's next. not to mention the people who are still unsure how their loved ones are doing.

there is a lot of that as well. still unsure about how this could happen in the first place. this is a government led by benjamin netanyahu who famously has said he is the one who should be the prime minister because he is the one who can keep israeli people safe. the israeli people have now been attacked from militants from gaza. that has really changed the equation on so many levels in this country. it's hard to predict even the next few hours, let alone the next few days and weeks. >> kelly, i want to thank you for that report. we want you to stay safe and i'm sure we'll talk to you very soon. later this hour, we will hear from former u.s. intelligence official sue gordan and later the columnist tom friedman. we will talk about what it means

for the saudi relationship and the is reraeli relationship. this is a tragedy on so many levels. when you think of the saudi relationship, based on the strength of israel and now israel looks weak. now they have to come back. what does it mean to the united states and that relationship? what does it mean to our own government shutdown? do things change here because of what is happening there in terms of funding israel? we had issues with funding ukraine. >> and iran looms large. >> overa all of it. >> they're not friends. i don't know if you call it an enemy of my enemy in that regard. it is ais a complex place.

hezbollah is supported by iran. >> that's part of the reason we sent a war sship to the eastern mediterranean. there are 150 missiles aimed at israel from lebanon. the concern would would be if israel goes all out and you hear of them talk about not ending in gaza, how does that spread in the region and beyond? >> iran. we know it is a terrorist state. hence the horror at the possibility of nuclear iran. they get closer and closer. are they capable of that? are they capable of anything? that is the most horrifying thought. maybe in this day and age, they are capable. i don't know. they had $6 billion that had

been frozen. this planning supposedly started in august. the world's a dangerous place. you point out the house and the house could probably be doing something. funding or otherwise. >> israel has been a bipartisan issue for the u.s. you need to have -- >> you need a speaker. >> there are pockets in the house where they did not want to help. we are almost anti-israel in the house. some factions. >> i think there are several. >> some of the demonstrations around the world and in this country are beyond the pale of us being able to understand what is happening and how you could possibly be demonstrating on the side. i understand disenfranchised. i don't know if that issue ever

goes away. there are clashes of the demonstrations. it's shocking. >> it's a disgrace. >> it's around the world. these are the same emotions for everyone. horror and sadness and anger over what is happening and shock. >> just watching the stories. >> i know. how many? thousands and thousands of stories of the guy talking to his daughter. she says we're on the way out and the last message he got was we're going to die and hasn't heard from her since. frightening. grandmothers and hostages and children? that's not a normal war. this is a terroristic act. >> i have cousins and family

there. the thing about it is it is like a 9/11, but almost five or ten times more intense insofar as it is a country of 8 million people and now we're talking about 1,000 people who have already died. do you remember when 9/11 happened in new york, so many people here knew somebody. family member. it is like that there, but everywhere. it is at an intensity that is deeper. this is one of the watershed moments, unfortunately. >> we know the retaliation will be swift and probably significant. civilians in a place like gaza? >> that is the situation that complicates. >> the hostage situation and the sheer density of gaza.

>> exactly. they will be caught up in this. civilians on both sides. you can't identify. >> hamas is hiding in schools and mosques. >> and hospitals. markets. it is what they have done for years. we will talk to tom friedman about this. we have a lot of folks who will help us sort this out. let's talk about the markets. that's the juxtapose all that. we're cnbc. it is necessary. it just seems difficult to do. get ready for the busy week in the market. get ready for inflation data and the kickoff of earnings season. o"sawbo oxtn quk x"n cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference."

power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley.

you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? it's true. plus, when you buy your first line of mobile, you get a second line free. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible. it's happening. the power goes out and we still have wifi

to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. on the squawk planner this week, it is busy for economic data. we get producer prices for september and then on thursday, consumer inflation data and jobless claims. on friday, the latest read on import/export prices. we also will slowly tread into earnings season. we hear from pepsi and then

delta airlines as well as walgreens and dominos. then friday is the banks with jpmorgan chase and citigroup and wells fargo and united health. joining us is strategist anastasia omarosa. both of you have a feel for equities although we are talking fixed income at this point. anastasia, i'll start with you. this is unsettling for investors. in the past, things have caused a correction. this could be an indication of something worse in your view? >> the stock market will focus on israel over the weekend. it is sad to see the human toll.

from the perspective of the stock market, it is a geopolitical flashpoint to process how this might escalate and how it might be contained. what is already playing out is what is happening in israel could fracture the fractured world we have. a lot of countries don't see eye-to-eye on this. by the way, of course, iran and what happens to the uranium barrels and if the oil is the bargaining chip is at stake here. we don't know how it will shake out. joe, you are right. it adds to the unscertainty of the market. if i get to the other side and look at the pullback, one area that is not tied to oil is technology. that is why investors have been stepping in and trying to buy the pullback in technology. you don't have the oil sensitivity or geopolitics in

there. i suspect that is where investors will look for opportunities. >> adudra, we will have higher for longer. they must have said it a lot more convincingly. suddenly we believe it and i think it is happening. you think we could get a pause in the upward move in rates right now? >> absolutely. with the environment where geopolitics takes over, higher oil prices is a concern. my concern is if this persists and the political risks start to weigh on the could be looking at stagflation.

u.s. as we will see if gas prices start to go up and you will see consumers come under pressure. this may dampen higher yields. the flight to safety, if you will, will bring investors to treasuries. >> we may not see 5% any time soon on the ten-year bond? we may not see 5.5% or the worst-case scenario. >> it seems that way given the fact we have moved a lot already. to me, a lot of that move is not fundamental, but technical. under the circumstances, i think you will perhaps see a little bit of a slowdown in the momentum to higher yields. it depends on how quickly the issue gets resolved. broadly speaking, the economy is on a strong footing coming out of the third quarter.

the jobs report we got on fridy was strong. the labor markets are tight. i think that could, perhaps, keep yields around 4.5% to 5%. i think you will see a break in the yields if you see a slowdown in the economy. >> anastasia, you think people will use weakness as a way to add to positions? >> i do think so. case in point, joe, the ten-year yield breaking out last week at 4.5%. it seems people are using the spikes to buy the dips in technology. i'm sympathetic to the point that it can pause at current levels because we are coming out of a strong third quarter. we will not have strong gdp growth in the fourth quarter. not with the auto strikes and

with the issues in israel. that could dampen the yields moving higher. oil prices are rising this morning. at the same time, energy is 7% of the cpi basket. i don't think the fed will react to that. we have cpi on deck for this week which maybe rises a bit p month over month, but not as much last month. that is constructive as well. >> the fed looks at core. eventually eventually, energy prices takes a hit on everything. >> eventually they do because it is a feed stock to the products. if you look at the numbers like a 10% move higher in oil price, we expect a 2% move higher in headline inflation and .1% in core inflation. it does feed through. not to the extent that would

derail. looking to later this week with inflation that we are expecting to come in at 4.2% on the core number is a step down and that should be favorable for the fed. i think pause in yields as we talked about would bring some of the investors back to the technology stocks. >> subadra, i guess the world is being brought back to reality and how dangerous it can be. then with ukraine and as time goes by, it goes into -- i assume something will happen here and people get back to business which is difficult, but it will impact economic activity in yields and oil. you cannot ignore any of these things. >> absolutely not. that's why we're paying attention. a lot of data is more essential

at the end of the market where it is sensitive to the moves in the bond market. this has been building for a long time. fed policy works with lag. you are starting to see the lags feed into the economy. you get the geopolitical risks. if anything, that could hasten the time going of -- timing of recession. the rise of prices has impact o. >> thank you. we will get an update on the strike by healthcare workers at kaiser permanente. we will have a that story next. we will talk to esther

geo george, the former kansas city fed president. "squawk box" will be right back. mlb chooses t-mobile for business for 5g solutions... ...to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.

since my citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise]

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the l'or barista coffee and espresso system. now brewing peet's coffee.

pharmacy employees at walgreens stores are planning a walkout today that could last until wednesday. pharmacists and support staff are calling burdensome expectations. walgreens was engaged in listening to concerns of team members and making investments in pharmacists wages and hiring bonuses. this is a big issue back to the pandemic with walgreens and cvs pha pharmacies. you see the pressure to get the prescriptions delivered and especially during vaccine season with lines of people waiting for these things. you can understand how they got to the breaking point.

cvs stores and some in kansas city have walked out and the ohio attorney general is looking into whether some practices at cvs have been under staffing pharmacies. it is an usual h issue across t nation. in the meantime, voluvo ownd mack trucks will go on strike today. it would improve retirement benefits and added vacation time for workers. uaw said 73% of the workers voted against the deal. meantime, the strike by workers at kaiser permanente is over for now. the work stoppage ending saturday morning without a deal. kaiser permanente scheduled bargaining sessions for the end of the week, but the union could strike again if they bargain in bad faith.

when we come back, more on "squawk box," with the law make ma makers with the response to what is happening in israel. as we head to break, a look at the dow and s&p and nasdaq. all down at this hour. we're coming right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next level network. move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security.

chip? at&t business. you know when you have those moments? that time to reflect. to be like wow... what did i do to get here? (city ambient noise) right. work. you worked hard and it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank brings security and a guarantee. that you'll earn a yield in the top 5% of competitive accounts. going, got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you

no matter what you're up against, erbank. we have your back. we are united way. we are neighbors helping neighbors in communities around the when disaster strikes we get you back on your feet.

we help children build brighter. we've been here for over 135 s but now our work is more . join us. join your neighbors. join united way. good morning. welcome back to ""squawk box." here live from the nasdaq market site in times square. you are looking at the dow up 142 points. nasdaq up 143 points. s&p is looking to open down 23.5 points. lots of questions across the world. the pressure is on for gop house members to select a new speaker. the violence in it israel is

adding to the issue. we have jake sherman from punch bowl with more. jake, how quickly can this get done? >> the hope, becky, is to elect a speaker this week. they have meetings tonight and tomorrow and wednesday. wednesday being the day they hope to elect a speaker with the internal party election. i don't see either party. steve scalise and jim jordan with neither has the latest to get through to the house floor. it could drag out into next week as they rally around one candidate. the thing they want to avoid is they don't want to go to the house floor wshort of the 218 votes needed to become speaker.

that would be a disaster or a repeat in january where they went 15 rounds. >> you sit and look at what is happening in israel and no legislation can make its way through without the house having a speaker. does that motivate anyone to get this done faster? is there a chance that democrats would help out to try to make sure that someone comes through? >> no chance democrats will help out in any way, shape or form. patrick mchenry has suggested that he would, to be honest with you with aides suggested if the house needed to do something, they would do something and would pass legislation despite the procedural hurdles because

mchenry cannot do anything with the rules. if you were in an emergency situation, i find it hard to believe the house would sit on its hands without a speaker . in these talks tonight and tomorrow, the republicans will make the point they cannot sit on their hands or delay in electing a speaker because of the war in israel. to be clear, becky, the administration has not asked congress for anything. they sent aircraft carriers into the region. congress has to within the next couple weeks pass legislation to refresh the iron dome and send more munitions to israel. by then, we hope to have a speaker of the house. >> jake, i read a 16-tweet guide to the possibility of meet the

new boss, same as the old boss. it was from chad about mccarthy. zero chance? less than 5%? he made some good points in the 16 tweets that i read. i don't know how that would work. those eight guys are still there. i don't know those eight guys. not the eight, but moderates that don't think jim jordan is viable. i don't know in scalise is more palatable. do you think he could be drafted to come back? >> i love chad. i think he is very smart. i don't think that will happen for a number of reasons. i think mccarthy could lose more votes than the eight he lost last time. i think matt gaetz is not somebody who will back off his threats for better or for worse.

i think, joe, if you have to look at the situation and find a back-up and call to the bullpen speaker, mchenry is the best bet. he would face tremendous hurdles. conservatives said those not aligned with mccarthy, he does represent the best cross section. i think to be honest with you, somebody will nominate mccarthy and put him in the mix. i don't see him getting the necessary votes or democrats backing him up. i could be wrong. i think it is a long shot at this point. >> jake, just to move farther down this fall. we had a number of guests come on and you might have said it at one point. the chances of a government shutdown are super high. some put it at 90% or more. does that change the calculus of what happened over the weekend

with hopefully the bipartisan view of what has happened in israel, but the need for the u.s. to take some form of leadership? >> yes and no. listen, i think in 30 something days, the government shuts down and that is important for the republicans and democrats. we interviewed jim jordan and scateve scalise. jim said he would fund if there was a to tal stop of the migrans crossing the border. i think democrats pefeel the hoe needs to get their speaker in order. maybe you would see democratic votes for that.

democrats want way too much for republicans. that's what republicans say. people who are aligned with mccarthy said he would trade one gun to his head for another gun to his head. a lot of legislation demands on the floor. democrats feel strongly that republicans have to get their house in order. it is up to them to do so. >> jake, thank you very much. coming up, nelson peltz renewing his bid for the disney board seat. $82.94 is where it closed on friday. we will talk to senator om twayne mullin on everything frhe house speaker race to the war in israel. we're coming right back.

let newage products transform your garage into an area of your home you can be proud of. modular steel cabinets let you pick and choose the storage solutions to keep your garage organized,

with overhead racks and shelving, slat wall, workstations and flooring that let you create a showroom garage to call your own. designed for diy installation. all you need is one weekend to take your garage from unusable to unbelievable. visit us at newageproducts.com. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. in corporate news, nelson

peltz is pushing for a board seat for disney. the report shows his fund manager will request multiple seats for peltz. peltz launched a run for a seat on disney's board earlier this year, but withdrew in february after the cost cutting plan was released for disney. now shares are trading back near the lowest level in a decade. >> when bob iger was interviewed by david faber over the summer with plans, a lot of people said why is he saying all this so publicly? why announce he is thinking about this or that? >> or the assets are not good? >> or before landing the plane on actually making an agreement or deal or this or that -- this is why. i think there was an expectation

if not perhaps the knowledge that nelson peltz was sitting in the wings or another activist would come or the best defense is to say what do you want me to do? i said i was thinking about it. strategic options are on the table. everything is on the table. that is the defense you would make to an activist. whether it is a persuasive defense is up to the market. >> it worked for a while with peltz. nothing has happened. >> the stock popped. >> when is snow white and the seven mystical creatures coming out? >> i don't know. >> i don't know either. when we come back, latest on the battle with hezbollah and hamas with israel. we will have sue gordon next. you with catch us any time a nd

take it with you on the cnbc app. we're coming right back. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice? i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business.

bmo. - [soldier] take a look at this! a bank that knows your business grows your business. - they've left us a gift. - [soldier] i think we misjudged them. - i love horses. (birds chirping) - [soldier] we should open the gate. - let's see what charlotte thinks. - [narrator] at crowdstrike, we monitor trillions of cyber events to detect threats and prevent breaches before they happen to keep your business from becoming history. we stop cyberattacks. we stop breaches. we stop a lot of bad things from happening. crowdstrike. protection that powers you. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

no matter what you're up against, we have your back. we are united way. we are neighbors helping neighbors in communities around the when disaster strikes we get you back on your feet. we help children build brighter. we've been here for over 135 s but now our work is more . join us. join your neighbors. join united way. no matter what you're up against, we have your back. we are united way. we are neighbors helping neighbors in communities around the when disaster strikes we get you back on your feet. we help children build brighter. we've been here for over 135 s but now our work is more . join us. join your neighbors. join united way.

welcome back to "squawk box." the outbreak of violence in the middle east is bringing in security issues in the u.s. eamon javers is here and he has been talking about the security issues and where this is heading. good morning. >> we are hear in sea island, georgia. this conference is scheduled for this weekend which has the top current and former law enforcement experts. william burns was expected to peek speak, but had to cancel after the violence over the weekend. there is a grim sense of those i talked to on background that the situation in israel will get worse in the short term and u.s. forces could very well be drawn into a hostage rescue operation

in gaza. i spoke with norman ruhl. he said u.s. assets will shor surely be called upon here. >> we will see the investigations, special forces and intelligence community provide support to the israelis for joint operations to free hostages. this is a massive operation that involves more than 100 different hostages. perhaps 150 in multiple locations. this will exceed israel's natural capacity. they will need foreign assistance to rescue these poor individuals. >> he also spoke to the likely role of iran here saying that that country trains its proxies like hamas and lets it conduct its operations on its own, so there's some deniability for the iranian government. >> if you're looking for iran's direct hand on this, it may not be there.

probably iran's senior leadership knew of this attack. >> roule compared the violence o. weekend to the isis era and said this is something new for the palestinians. he predicts significant bloodshed and violence in gaza in the coming days, and he says the average life span of leaders of hamas and their successors is about to get very short. back over to you guys. >> joining us right now with more on the intelligence questions surrounding the attack, sue gordon is here, former principal director of national intelligence. good morning to you. >> good morning, andrew. >> i'll ask you a basic open ended question, which is where do you think this all goes from here? >> it gets worse and it's worse for a long time. the horrific nature of the attack, how fraught the relationships are, how hard it's going to be to have to work to keep the other factions in place, this is going to be long

likely bloody, and create some really difficult nuanced decision-making for an israeli government that isn't in its strongest footing. even though the kind of war effort unifies people, as days wear on, boy, the adrenaline wears off and then you start asking questions. this is going to be long and tough. >> so when you say long, are you talking about weeks, months, a year, more than that? what does that look like both in terms of from an intelligence perspective or from a strategic perspective, how do you imagine israel goes about this, and by the way, on the other side, how do you imagine hamas retaliates if they are going to retaliate let's be very clear, something

that started with hamas, and this is a retaliation for that? >> it is. i don't want to put a bound on it. it changes the region. it is forcing yet again dealing with the israeli palestine issue that keeps on trying to be put in some sort of stasis. it's going to be bloody. there will be ripple effects for years that we just can't predict yet what comes and what rises out of this. norm made a great point about isis area, and i think if you think to that, all the unintended and unexpected events that arose as that fight wages. i won't put a bound on it. i will tell you it is a long time and it has changed a lot of equations in the region. >> we don't think of iran as the swing producer of oil anymore,

but i mean, it's -- it matters what's happening there. that's one thing that i worry about. i worry about our spr. it's notfull. i don't know how we deal with that, and then i just -- my biggest fear is how close iran is to being nuclear capable, and you know, when you see something like this, you realize there's no sanity there, there's no governor, anything is possible in iran, is it not? >> i think all those concerns, probably the oil concern is probably not our alligator closest to the boat given all the efforts going on to try and keep some semblance of civility and keep others from joining into this fray, so probably that one might have a slight pert bags, but i don't think that's

our biggest worry. certainly iran is an opportunistic predator, and i think that you always worry about what it might do, and your last point, joe, i think is excellent in that the unpredictability of it, we haven't talked about the failure aspect of this because that's looking a bit in the rearview mirror, and there will be time for that, but i think there's a little bit of remembering that the interests of these parties are not the same as the interests of other nation states, and getting comfortable that you understand their next move is probably not a good strategy and may have kind of contributed to what we see in terms of israel not anticipating this event. >> sue, how do you think this impacts the relationship between a potential deal between israel and saudi. one reason i ask is given this clear failure of intelligence, one of the reasons arguably the

saudis were interested potentially in a deal is, you know, they had a particular view. i think the world had a particular view of the intelligence services in israel and therefore also what israel will have to do in the next coming weeks or months to try to prove to the world and maybe the saudis and others that that intelligence is as good as they have said it is. >> yeah, israel's job of rebuilding trust is as monumental as any here. i don't think we need to throw in the towel on the efforts going on in the region with saudi and uae. there's some goodness behind those activities for all the parties, so i think it makes it harder today than it did, but i don't think we have to throw in the towel on those, but again, how israel conducts the war, the calculations it makes. you know, there aren't any good military targets for them to hit, so there is a lot of

concern about as the days and weeks and months carry on, it's tough. >> sue, we got to run, but we hope we're going to have the opportunity to talk again soon. unfortunately this is a story that's not going away. when we come back, mohamed el-erian will join us on the market impact of the violence in israel, and his expectations for inflation data. and later, a "new york times" foreign affairs colniumst tom friedman will join us live. "squawk box" will be right back. s for education because there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook. now they're focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ )

♪ upbeat music ♪ upbeat music the first time you made a sale online with godaddy

was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com the citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn you more cash back in your top eligible spend category. hi. you don't have to keep tabs on rotating categories... this is the only rotating i care about. ...or activate anything to earn. your cash back automatically adjusts for you. can i get a cucumber water? earn 5% cash back that automatically adjusts to your top eligible spend category, up to $500 spent each billing cycle with the citi custom cash® card. i love it.

good morning, israel retaliates against hamas with hundreds of air strikes in gaza. the death toll continues to rise since the start of the attacks on saturday. the u.s. now sending military aid. we will have the latest. the global markets reacting to the violence in the middle east, the futures are in the red right now. well off the lows of the day, but oil prices higher as well. we are also going to talk about the breakdown with the markets, the economy, and much more with mohamed el-erian, second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live at the nasdaq market site in times square, i'm andrew

ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. a tragedy over the weekend, the dow now down about 150 points, nasdaq off about 105 points. s&p 500 off about 24 points. we'll show you oil and the energy complex, of course, something that could very well be impacted by what is now a war in the middle east. the wti crude sitting at 85.93. brent 87.65, also showing you g gold. right now gold at $1,863. >> the israel hamas war is in its third day now, at least 1,200 people have been killed since fighting began on saturday morning. israeli defense forces launching air strikes on hundreds of hamas targets in gaza. the idf says they now have in their words full control of the towns that were attacked by the

militants. israel also calling up 300,000 reservists in response to the attacks. there are also reports of more than 100 israeli hostages being taken into gaza by hamas. and the white house and lawmakers have voiced support for israel. the u.s. did send warships and fighter jets to the eastern mediterranean including the navy's most advanced aircraft carrier, the u.s.s. gerald ford. we're going to talk much more about the military challenges and the options and iran's involvement, all those things, with retired colonel jack jacobs. >> the market also paying close attention to the events in the middle east. joining us is mohamed el-erian, he is president of queens college cambridge, and mohamed you said a soft landing was much less likely, that there's a risk of something breaking. how do you now assess everything

with this added on top of it? >> given what's happened over the weekend and my thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of those who lost loved ones and all the other innocent people who are either missing or have been taken hostage, look, this makes the u.s. outlook, is this conflict contained or does it bring in other parties? so far the markets are trading as if it's contained, but if this expands and brings in other parties, then the outlook is for even a weaker global economy, even more inflationary pressures and the markets are going to be finding it hard to deal with that. >> look, there's the idea that's been not 100% confirmed at this point, but a very likely idea that we've already got iranian involvement with this. so if israel retaliates against the iranians is that what you're

talking about by expanding? >> so you can see a scenario -- and again, you have other people who can speak with more authority, a scenario in which israel retaliates against iran. iran gets engaged. syria and lebanon start being a much more active front, it's active now but much more active. and then you've got a significant wargoing on and then ask the question, what's going to happen with ukraine at this point, and russia, what's going to happen with china? this is why the big question for the market and the economy is whether you get escalation. if you look at the way we're trading right now, it is a somewhat higher risk of escalation, but not significant. that's the major call. >> 150 points down in the dow, you could walk in on any given morning and see. >> correct, it's only 4% oil up. if you look at government bonds around the world, the yields haven't come down in any meaningful manner. so the market is treating this

as a contained issue, and that's a major question that has to be debated. does it remain contained? >> what would you advise? what would you do in the markets today? it sounds like you think there should be a higher premium built into this. >> if you step back, we are every day facing more and more uncertaint uncertainties, and this is what you get when you have geopolitical tensions. this is what you get when growth isn't significant, and this is what you get when you get policy mistakes. so yes, we are on this road where we seem to get crisis. andrew and i were at an event, talking about geopolitical issues, that issue wasn't even mentioned, and this was a couple of weeks ago, and you had geopolitical experts, and it wasn't even mentioned. so you know, it's another unthinkable that has become reality. >> just in terms of how you would be looking at this, some people have pointed back to the 1973 yom kippur war, other people look at this and say,

okay, you're running into trouble from maybe not great financial crisis levels of things, but the idea that things break. that's what you were talking about last week. what do you look out and think could potentially break? >> last week when i was talking about this is because you had the combination of three things. you had a significant move up in yields, since the end of the second quarter the ten-year had moved up 100 basis points. that is a significant move. you had a significant move up in oil, and you had a significant move up in the dollar. historically, those three things happening break something. they tend to break something in the financial system, and the market concern is that we haven't even finished with interest rate risk, and then there's credit and liquidity risk there. so that was the issue is pay attention to what has happened over the last few months because historically that is not a great combination for the economy or for the market. >> you talk about policy mistakes, you mean the fed continuing to raise rates potentially or keep them higher for longer?

>> the fed has done enough, but this assumes that you're willing to acknowledge what i think is true, which is we live in a world of inflexible supply and the fed has to get used to the notion that 2% inflation is not to get to too quickly. >> mohamed i think everyone had a viewpoint that the middle east had been -- i don't know, it wasn't settled but it seemed a lot more stable. last week, one of the presidents -- >> jake sullivan. >> was saying it's been decades. >> quieter than ever. >> now i can only imagine the feeling of israelis at this point must be they are just beyond furious and just they want -- there's going to be -- beh we heard netanyahu say there's going to be retaliation like you've never seen. plr palestinians, i don't know

if we thought that was somehow settled, which it never really was, i guess, if there's really a lot of carnage in gaza, we are back to square one on this whole thing. the whole world looks a little different and much more -- the middle east is going to be what we've always viewed it as, back to just a complete powder keg and then you throw in the nuclear capabilities with iran. it seems like the whole world changed over the weekend. >> i hope we're not back to square one. israel has peace treaties with a number of arab countries, which they didn't have in 1973. the mistake we all made is that remarginalize the palestinian, israel issue. we assume this is all about israel and other countries, so abraham accord, what happened to israel and saudi arabia, and we marginalize the palestinian issue, and now the palestinian issue has imposed itself. this is going to be awful because understandably israel is going to go after gaza.

gaza, as you all -- >> that's going to just infur -- whatever grievance is long held, that's going to be exponentially worse, right? >> and there's going to be a lot of innocent people dying, and those images are going to go around the world. >> and each one of them scarred for the rest of their life remembering this, and then israel saying this is -- and then it's just the vicious cycle is going to repeat itself again. >> that's why -- you will be talking to people, they'll say that ultimately the question is can you get a just and comprehensive peace there or not. otherwise this cycle will repeat itself. you know, it's 50 years since the '73 war. it's exactly 50 years. >> i just think that's not -- i don't want to take it to economic issues, but the whole world seems much less -- and then you throw, you know, ukraine's still raging, so it just doesn't seem like a great environment for anything. >> and you saw the u.s. comments

about china's position on this. so this simply puts fuel on other geopolitical tensions that were there. you know, this is a difficult period. we just brought out a book explaining why it is that we stumble from crisis to crisis and there's a good reason why you stumble from crisis to crisis because the underpinnings, economic, financial, and geopolitical are so weak, so you become vulnerable to any small shock. >> you're a student of history, though, and i was looking it up last night because i was curious just what has happened when there have been wars or skirmishes or other things -- this is not a skirmish -- that have broken out specifically in the middle east and relating around israel and a number of academic have put out research reports over the years about these things and i was surprised that oddly enough from an economic and really markets perspective that the markets

have taken a lot of these things in stride. why do you think that is? meaning if it is a crisis, and it all looks, you know, with your two eyes it looks like a crisis, and yet, for some reason, at least according to the academic literature, and i imagine if you were to look at charts, it doesn't -- it doesn't look like a crisis in the charts. >> so it depends on which war, it depends on escalation. if you look at the '73 war. the markets didn't take that well at all. in fact, we had a terrible economic outlook after that. we got the oil embargo, stagflation. and the market is treating this exactly like you said, that it's going to pass and we should, quote, look through it. and again, the assumption is no further escalation. that is the assumption that's built into the market behavior so far today. i'm very intrigued about what's happening in the bond market. you would expect yields across

the world to be significantly lower. you're seeing it somewhat in the dollar, but you're not seeing it in government bond yields. the technicians will be looking at this really carefully. >> thank you for coming in. i have a feeling we'll be talking to you a lot in the coming weeks. >> when we come back, a lot more on "squawk box." protests on violence in israel spilling into the streets here in america. big worries about misinformation spreading on social media. antidefamation league ceo national director jonathan greenblat will join us right after the break. "squawk box" will come back in a me.t >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities, experience expertise execution.

♪ ♪ every single day, businesses everywhere are asking the exact same question: is it possible? well, with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? so we can better protect our customer data? aww-yeah. absolutely. what else you got? can we use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? before they even exist? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. even out here. you, sir. something on your mind? is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations?

with wifi analytics? easy. order for nina! can i teleport our guests to their rooms? technically, no. or power thousands of mobile check-ins while thousands of other guests check out? now that we can do. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. . the antidefamation league says it's found an uptick in anti-semitism on social media sites like telegram and x since the israel/hamas conflict we saw, which escalated over the weekend. joining us now, jonathan green p blat, ceo and national director of the antidefamation league. you monitor constantly on social media. i can only imagine at this point

conspiracy theories, blame, trying to shift blame, you're seeing it all. >> we're seeing it all. so we track hate across social media platforms, we track it on different messaging applications. we track it on streaming services. what we saw, you know, last week was a regular week. there wasn't an unusual spurt of anti-s anti-semitism, but as soon as the fighting started, as soon as the sun rose on saturday morning, we saw hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of message surge on telegram specifically in these different semipublic chat rooms that they have, and we've seen waves of anti-semitism on twitter/x, on instagram, on tiktok, ugly horrible videos. but look -- >> how much do you think is organized? how much do you think is -- >> it's most definitely organized, so -- and i think we should think about this, this is sort of the tiktok war because

we saw these people -- and i'm not going to glorify them as fighters. i'm not going to dignify them as militants. they're barbarians who came in and literally executed elderly people people, who kidnapped children, who raped and brutalized and murdered women. we know this because they videoed it. they recorded it on cell phones gleefully and uploaded it. i spoke to a family in israel this weekend, they burst into a home, they took the grandmother's phone, made her open it, recorded them killing her and uploaded it onto her social media profile. hers, her own execution. this is isis. this is al qaeda. this is the taliban on full display, and i don't know that we've ever seen a conflict like this before. you know, but, i saw mohamed who i deeply respect and i've heard commentators talking about a cycle of violence. i don't believe in economic

cycles, they're the result of what people do. decisions that people make and in this case, this was a massacre. this was an unprovoked slaughter of hundreds upon hundreds of teenagers and innocent people. so let's not reduce it to a cycle that was inevitable, let's call it what it was, a massacre. >> we're talking -- >> i'm fired up, i'm sorry. >> social media can exacerbate it, but it's the least of our problems right now, not the least of our problems, it's always been bad, but that's not the key issue here. the key issue is the terrorists. >> the key issue is the dehumanization of people. and that dehumanization -- >> this existed before social media too. >> of course it did. >> but you think this just exacerbate it is. >> both those things are true, yes, it's before social media, but millions upon millions of messages saying that zionism is

genocide. it is not. saying that resistance is legitimate, objectifying jews and israelis as if they were animals. that's how people come in and literally shoot and murder teenagers at a party, shooting them in the back while they run washi away, raping the women and taking them with bloody crotches and parading them around graazao cheering crowds ch. the barbarity is off the charts. please don't show the videos that look like video games, you know, if you will, with rockets coming. show the videos of the israeli women and children, the babies and elderly as they have been mutilated and mocked over the last -- >> i'm sure some of these demonstrations we're seeing, those being organized on social

media too? is there anything social media can -- should that not be there? >> look, we've talked before, i've sat in this chair and said hate speech is the price of free speech. incitement to violence is not some kind of protected free expression, and i think the platforms have to reckon with do we amplify these hashtags? do we recommend these? literally here last night, here in new york city in times square down by the u.n. and by the adl office we had people marching in support of this madness. now, again, there's historical precedent for this. they marched in nazi germany in support of the third reich in support of dehumanizing jews, at this rally, there were people holding cell phones with swastikas on them. history will judge very poorly these people and resistance against occupation, rape, mutilation and murder is not resistance. i'm sorry, and it is

unacceptable in any context. >> i donjonathan, elon musk, th supreme leader, khamenei of iran posted something basically saying he wanted the eradication of israel. elon musk took that and replied to it and said official position is clear that the eradication of israel is the actual goal, not just supporting palestinians. that will not happen. all that actually happens decade after decade is a never ending cycle of violence and vengeance, stoking the fires of hatred isn't working. perhaps it is time to consider something else. he took khamenei's original post out of the time line, but it's still available. he said this post violated x's rules, but it may be in the public interest for the post to remain accessible. what do you say to that? >> the same day we issued our statement last week about elon and clarifying our position on x. i called out the fact that khamenei posted this tweet, calling israel a cancer that

must be destroyed. as we can see and as "the wall street journal" reported khamenei and the rgc met with hamas and his leaders last week and authorized this action. so to your question, becky, i think it is reprehensible that this kind of propaganda, this kind of incitement is allowed. i'm glad elon said this is their goal, but when he makes this comment this will just end up in another cycle of violence. i'm sorry, this was not an attack. it was a massacre, and it was engineered in tehran, and we should literally not allow them to push this poison out. >> let's say you're the president of harvard university, you've looked at what's happening in harvard, there are students -- >> mind boggle. >> students who are gathering to support the palestinians, to support hamas frankly, very, very specifically to support hamas and what's happening. what is the role of the president of a university or frankly, the president of a

company when they have either students or employees or others who want to view and express that position? which i find disgraceful, but i wonder what the answer's supposed to be. >> look, the first thing i would do if i was president of harvard university. we are clearly not educating students. for students to think that, again, murder at scale is somehow legitimate, that occupation causes terror, i mean, there are no israelis in gaza for goodness same kes. we need to revisit our entire core education because they're clearly not teaching morals or values. that's number one. number two, the president of harvard like the president of u penn, like the president of any of these institutions needs to stand up and say this is disgraceful and wrong. students are entitled to their opinions.

i think their parents are paying for them to be educated. you are clearly not getting education if you think it's okay to equivocate in the face of fascism. >> there are plenty of faculty members at those demonstrations too. >> again, there were professors in nazi germany who legitimized the campaign to quote, answer the jewish question. so we need to put this in context. >> do you have an issue with many members of congress? >> rashida tlaib aposted statements that boggle the mind. there is no quote, apartheid in an area of land where there isn't a single israeli -- how did this happen? >> israel left in 2005. >> israel left in 2005. who did this happen? it was a massive intelligence failure. why? because there are no israelis in gaza. so to somehow blame this on the occupation is bananas, and as was pointed out over the weekend, yes, gaza borders

israel, it also borders egypt. but no one would suggest that it would be okay for hamas to send in these agents of death to murder and pillage and rape egyptian civilians. but i would also just beg, please, please show the videos. show the videos that i've seen over the weekend of children too young to speak who were kidnapped and being mocked by members of hamas. show the desecrated corpses. this is an emmett till moment, and the world should see this barbarism because that's where this began. >> okay. i'm sorry. i know -- >> no, no, no, don't be sorry. there's nothing to be sorry about. >> it is witnessable by anyone -- >> in a country of 9 million people. i'm sure when the dust settles, well over 900 people will have been murdered as a result of what happened. that is -- think about those

numbers. what would it be like in this country. >> made that point earlier. >> jonathan, thank you. >> thank you. next hour, we're going to talk to "new york times" foreign affair columnist tom friedman about the intensifying situation in israel and the middle east. when we come back, we will also have a rundown of this morning's top stocks to watch including activist nelson peltz seekg re binmooard seats at disney. "squawk box" will be right back.

icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. circulon with scratchdefense. built from three layers of nonstick to withstand over

350,000 metal utensil scrapes in laboratory testing. 130 times longer-lasting than the competition. get free shipping at circulon.com (swords clashing) -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme.

welcome back to "squawk box." we'll start things off with a merger monday story. this time it's in big pharma, biotech, bristol-myers squibb is agreeing to buy mirati therapeutics in an all cash deal. that could be worth $5.8 billion contingent on certain things being met. it will help bolster bristol-myers drug pipeline. it's 58 bucks per share in cash for each mirati share. they will get one nontradeable contingent value right worth up to an additional $12 a share in cash. that's part of the reason you're seeing those shares drift lower

for mirati. we'll keep an eye on that $58 guaranteed cash payout price. disney shares up about a percent or so. the media giant the target of activist investor nelson peltz, boosted its take in disney and is seeking multiple board seats. and we'll end on the market reverberations due to the tensions in the middle east reaching a boiling point over the weekend in reaction to those hamas attacks on israel over the weekend. israel's defense minister has ordered a complete siege of the gaza strip in an effort to cut off l electricity and food. some of the biggest upside moves in the premarket have come on oil companies like marathon oil and occidental petroleum. defense contractors have been moving higher. lockheed martin, raytheon

technologies, general dynamics, as the conflict is seen as raising demand for instruments of war. some of the moves higher we're seeing because of what's happening in the middle east, i'll send things back over to you. >> okay. thank you for that, dom, appreciate it. when we come back, a lot more on "squawk," republicans seeking a new house speaker. we're going to put a spoltlight on what is dysfunction in the capital. later former kansas city fed president, esther george is going to be with us to talk about the central bank's inflation battle in the path of interest rates amid all of this, frankly, new and additional uncertainty that's been deadd to the conversation. "squawk box" returns after this. dad, we got this.

we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com (birds chirping) go. and go and go and go. ( ♪ ♪ ) but what if you... stop? you work hard, it's time for a bank that'll work hard for you. everbank brings security and a guarantee

that you'll earn a yield in the top 5% of competitive accounts. going, that's what got you where you want to be. we're the partners for your next move. everbank. advantage, you. no matter what you're up against, erbank. we have your back. we are united way. we are neighbors helping neighbors in communities around the when disaster strikes we get you back on your feet. we help children build brighter. we've been here for over 135 s but now our work is more . join us. join your neighbors. join united way.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. the futures this morning are a little weaker than they were a couple of hours ago. the dow futures off by just over 170 points. nasdaq futures down by 121. and the s&p down by 27. oil prices have come up, still below $90 a barrel. you are looking at wti up by about 3.5% to 85.62. the race for the speaker of the house has now been overshadowed by the hamas

attacks in israel. a leader is expected to be voted on this week. joining us is former u.s. senator heidi heitkamp, the director of chicago's subinstit of politics, and former u.s. senator. how do you think this -- let's call it what it is, this massacre that took place over the weekend in israel impacts what's happened here? >> i hope it sends a message of urgency to get their house in order. we need to do a lot of business. we need to show unfettered and complete support for our ally israel, and we can't do that if we're a housebroken. and soy hope -- i hope to heavens that the house realizes that tlhey're not the center of attention in the world, and they need to get -- >> how does that change the dynamic in this case, frankly for the democrats in terms of how the democrats are going to react to all of this? >> you know, i don't know,

andrew. it seems to me that they should recalibrate as well, whether it's asking for a vote on the motion to vacate. i think there's going to be some tough conversations about, you know, it's okay to have dysfunction and kind of revel in it until something horrible happens with one of our allies, and then you need to start understanding that you need to comp compromise. you need to come to the table, so i certainly hope that, especially on a motion to vacate the democrats will provide some kind of stability for the house. >> judd, who do you think would be the right speaker? also, let me add to this sort of situation, there is now going to be calls, i imagine, you know, we just had a massive debate in washington about sending funds and additional money to ukraine. there's going to be big asks, i imagine, of the u.s. to send money to israel, and when and if that happens, how you think the republican party reacts. >> first off, i don't think it

really matters who the next speaker is because they're not going to be able to govern under their present rules. that's because under the present rules, anybody can vacate the chair, and you've got a fair number of members, at least ten or nine who are willing to offer that motion and come from districts for the most part where they're not accountable because they're jer ry mand the districts so they can't lose the election. had is just an example of what i call the unraveling of our constitutional elected democracy. it started with the invasion of the capitol, you've got a president who has serious issues it appears, you have a senate which doesn't have the national leaders it used to have that sort of gave us stability, and now you've got the rise of the regulatory state, which has become an autocracy basically unaccountable to the congress. all this is going to continue until the house of representatives decides the presidents to govern. and heidi's right, it would be nice if the democrats decided to join in the effort of governing,

but they basically joined in the effort of eliminating the speakership, and so you can't do this there isn't some compromise in the house between the parties. you simply can't do it. the two party are too close this their numbers. i haven't seen that growing. any republican speaker who goes across the aisle is immediately going to be challenged to vacate the chair, and that will probably win if the democrats don't join with opposing it. >> can you speak to the second -- can you speak to the second part of my question, though. as i said, you know, from an economic perspective f, from a money perspective, there is going to be an ask of the united states to support -- >> there will be an ask and it will be responded to at some point. there's no immediacy, immediate need right now for israel to get funds. there's a pipeline that's there that can be handled and we have enough resources in the background here, the defense

department to get them what they need to bridge well into the next couple of months. at some point, there will be a bill, which will fund ukraine and will fund israel because we have to do that. it's in our national defense to do that. and even some of the slower members of the house must recognize that by this time, especially after this weekend. so that will get done. i'm not too concerned about that. what i'm more concerned about is the fact that the house of representatives has devolved into a nongoverning event ask has ceded so much authority to administration and staff and regulatory authorities that are unelected. this is a problem for us if we're going to be govern ed by people who aren't really elected. it is until they eliminate this vacate motion that can be made by one person. if the democrats want to do something constructive, they would join with republicans and go back to the old way and say motion to vacate can only be

brought forward by the caucus, not a single individual. >> heidi, i don't know if you have feelings about the candidates they're putting forward on the republican side. i'm just wondering how -- because there are factions that are so opposed to each other in the house at this point that i don't know if any of the current -- i don't know if jim jordan, seems like that's tough for moderates. i don't know about scalise, i don't know whether patrick mchenry. the democrats could be a king maker here. who would they want? i've seen it posited that you could draft mccarthy and just have a do-over and have the democrats this time say, all right, we can work with that guy and maybe change the rules. how do you see this playing out? would the democrats every be pat of the solution -- i'm not blaming them, but they could pick the most palatable speaker for their interests on the gop side. >> right, and joe, i don't think

that's jim jordan. a lightning rod. so if we go forward and look at who the democrats might accept, i think it would be somebody that hasn't been recognized yet. but the bottom line is as long as judd said, as long as you have that motion to vacate and that rule, let me tell you this is tough. >> judd, how do you think -- ask you -- i was asking heidi just to see if she knew what would be palatable to the dems. how do you think it would work, judd? who do you think the republicans should put up? >> well, i suspect -- and i have no way of knowing this because i'm not in that caucus -- but i suspect what's going to happen is the caucus is going to reach loggerheads, they're going to have to go to a compromise, probably mchenry, and give him the authority to run the house legislatively for breach period until they can come up with a

candidate they can all agree on, which i'm not sure they can do in light of the vacate motion. the place is dysfunctional, and it's not going to become functional again until you don't -- until you stop having one person have the power to eliminate the speaker when you've got a majority of only seven votes. >> the democrats could neutralize those eight guys in a blink of an eye, the ones that -- the rebels, but it would take -- >> but then you would end up with a coalition government and maybe -- >> bipartbipartisanship. >> we've never had a coalition government, closest we came is when reagan was elected. >> voting president for someone that would be able to bridge the gap wouldn't be that hor -- i don't know if you'd call that, you know, it's not like -- >> there would be a price to be paid for that i suspect in the area of legislative activity.

>> so we just -- bunch of near roes are fiddling while the rest of the country burns. >> that's a good way to describe it, although i think that gives them too much credit. >> judd, heidi, want to thank you very, very much. sounds like you guys may be getting some emails or text messages, hope they're good ones. >> the u.s. sending military aid to israel, retired colonel jack jacobs will tell us about the tacti tactical challenges facing the israeli forces and the intelligence breakdown behind that attack. >> you can get the best of "squawk box" on our daily podcast. follow squawk pod and you can listen anytime. stayun ted. hair growth.unty clinically shown to help grow thicker, fuller hair with just one capsule a day of advanced hair complex. conquer hair thinning... ...and fall in love with your hair all over again. only from nature's bounty. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪

( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) -awww. -awww. -awww. -nope. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the l'or barista coffee and espresso system. now brewing peet's coffee. i'm andrea, founder of a

boutique handbag brand - andi - and this is why i switched to shopify. it's the challenges that we don't expect, like a site going down or the checkout wouldn't work. what's nice about shopify is when i'm with my family, when i'm taking time off, knowing that i have a site up and running and our business is moving forward because we have a platform that we can rely on. that is gold to us. start your free trial at shopify today. ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home...

...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. coming up, israel declares war on hamas. reports now that iran helped plot the attack while the u.s. sending an aircraft carrier and

other additional support to the region. retired colonel jack jacobs is going to give us a breakdown of what could be next if the conflict escalates. "squawk box" will be right back. this is american infrastructure, a prime target for cyberattacks. but the same ai-powered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. ♪ hi, i'm stacey, and i've lost 60 pounds on golo. (guitar music) for everyone who lives here. this belt i used to wear, way down at the first and second notch, it's the only thing i've kept from before losing weight and i'm keeping this because i'm never going back.

you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? it's true. plus, when you buy your first line of mobile, you get a second line free. there are no term contracts or line activation fees. and you can bring your own device. oh, and all on the most reliable 5g mobile network nationwide. wireless that works for you. it's not just possible. it's happening. the u.s. military is deploying an aircraft carrier strike group and fighter jets closer to israel to demonstrate support in its conflict with hamas. joining us now is colonel jack

jacobs, u.s. army, nbc news and nbc military analyst, also a medal of honor recipient. colonel jacobs, it's good to see you. welcome. >> thanks. >> colonel, we had discussions earlier that in one way or another or another we might actually see even more american involvement eventually, whether it's releasing hostages. you would know better. how does that look. we have the aircraft carrier, we havejets.

one doesn't expect to see american airplanes conducting strikes on gaza or anyplace else unless there are attacks directly on american assets. it's there principally as a show of force. you raise an interesting case on the hostages, is doing something about gets the hostages back. now, securing hostages is an extremely difficult task, even at the best of times. they're usually very narrowly focused, maybe one site, two sites at the same time, rarely ever more and not in multiple locations like they are now. so we're still inside israel

apparently, surrounded by idf. it would appear the largest number of hostages have been taken in gaza in multiple locations. it takes practice on specific objective areas in order to effect a hostage rescue. israel did it itself in the 80s in which netanyahu's brother was killed and was the only casualty in the operation. in other words, it requires highly focused forces, wem tra well rehearsed and trying to get back multiple hostages in multiple locations is extremely difficult. there will be casualties even if one rescue is attempted. so israel has a very tough row to hoe.

>> iran can sit back with impunity, if their fingerprints are all over this? >> yeah, it would appear that way. the west has been trying to nullify iran for a long time. our experience iran in doing whatever we can to get our americans back to iran, that experience has informed iran putting this operation in gaza and israel together. they know that both trillion and the united states will do absolutely anything in order to get hostages back. no matter what has happened to get the hostages in the first place, including killing innocent people that the united states and israel will do anything to get hostages back. yes, it appears u.s. is

perfectly happy to let iran do whatever it wants to do. >> are you suggesting the strategy should be not trying to get the hostages back in. >> no, but we have to be realistic what the outcome is going to be. there are a couple of reasons why hostages were taken. one is to get palestinians out of prisons and to get concessions from trillion to get palestinians out of prison inside israel. to the effect that can be effected, perhaps israel will start negotiating with third parties to mack that happen. the gulf states and turkey would like to play a bigger role in the region. but any attempt to free hostages has to be viewed with some relate that there are going to be casualties. their life even an individual

attempt to get hasostages back likely to fail and even if it succeeds will not be without casualties on both sides. i'm not suggesting that they shouldn't do it, but try to picture what assets are required to get all these hostages back or even a majority of them back from multiple locations using scarce resources, difficult times and difficult resources. everyone has to be realistic about what the outcome is going to be. >> colonel, the question i have is even once this is over, is it over? and is there any opportunity for this not for silver linings because this is such a -- we'll call it a massacre pausebecause that's what it is.

is there anything on any side of this that could resolve this in any meaningful way or is it just we are where we are? >> we saw this in '05 and '06 when israeli troops were withdrawn from gaza. we haven't even spoken about the possibility of a second front opening up in southern lebanon, then a period of buildup, a catastrophe of some kind and retribution and we reset and goes back to the way it was before and it all starts again. the mid-term and long-term objectives are such that it's on both sides is such that this is likely to be repeated over and over. >> colonel jacobs, we appreciate your time this morning. thank you. >> thanks so much.

>> still to come this morning, much more on the tense situation in the middle east. new york city foreign affairs columnist tom friedman will be our guess. >> and former kansas city fed president esther george will ins with more on recession fierce and rates staying higher longer. "squawk box" will be right back.

good morning. the death poll rising in israel following this weekend's surprise attack by hamas. today israel responding with a crackdown on gaza. on wall street futures are lower and energy prices are higher as investors try to gauge what the conflict will mean for business. we're going to speak about all of it this hour, including an interview with the "new york times" columnist tom friedman as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box." i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. and futures all morning have had some red across the board. was worse at one point but down about 170 points. bond market's closed in the u.s. today. but here's where things stood with treasury yields, just under 4.8 now on the 10-year and 5.08 on the two year. energy, as you might expect, rebounding from recent weakness, a pretty big move and still below 90. gold prices did get a bit of a bid having sold off from the mid 1900 level. and the death toll from saturday's attack now to 1,200

in total, close to 5,000 people injured and palestinian militant groups claiming to be holding more than 130 people in gaza that were captured in israel. israel's defense minister says that the country has begun a full siege of gaza, including cutting off power, gasoline and food supplies. israel says it has retaken control of all of its territory, though there have been reports of ongoing fighting and new breaches in southern towns and a spokesman telling nbc news that militants are still trying to cross into israel from gaza. a spokesman for the iranian foreign ministry denying that the country was involved in the attack, though many see the country's fingerprints on the incursion. it's reported iranian security officials helped hamas plan the assault and approved it last week. later this hour we'll speak to

dan senor author of "startup nation." haven't seen dan in a while. not great circumstances to be talking to him but we look food to it. >> we're playing close attention to the markets under all of this. m mike santoli joins us. good morning. >> good morning, becky. if you look at the s&p index fund, giving back a little more than half of what the gained on friday. it still kind of kept the upper part of this range. it sort of held these levels. many were watching. it seems as if it's still preserving the up trend to its day average, all of that coming into play. you mentioned that the cash bobond market is closed.

so no real flight there. in the year since we did get that low in the market last october, in fact, this coming thursday is the anniversary of the closing low, friday is the anniversary of the intra day low, just under 3,600, we see here as real divergence. we've been talking about this for a while. it is trailing the market cap led by almost 12 percentage points. this has caused a lot of people to wonder if you really do have a robust up trend. you have fewer than 40% of all large stocks are in kind of an identifiable up trend at this point. there's been some struggle and discounting. whether that means a lot of the market is looking cheaper with low expectations right now, i think that's an argument you could make looking ahead. take a look at the u.s. dollar index. one of the things that i think the stock market has benefited

from, the dollar index as well oil prizes and 10-year treasury went up to that range, backed off it a bit and that created a little breathing room. you see last week's high about 106.80. we're not far from it. the u.s. growing faster than the rest of the world. there's all kinds of reasons why this might be the case. sometimes you also get a little bit of a stability and safety bid in such environments. >> on friday the immediate reaction after the jobs report strong are than anticipated, yields picked up pretty rapidly and equities under quite a bit of pressure but all of that reversed by the end of the social. what was the thought process? >> good news for the economy remains good news for now in the sense that headline job grote was stronger than expected. at least at this point higher yields have not had too much of an impact.

10-your treasuries went up to 4.88 at the highs last week. i think that was taken as a signal that maybe we had our move in that direction and the technical report at least for now had ticked in for stocks, too. >> thank you. >> meantime the federal reserve finding itself in a tough position following the jobs report. with us is kansas city fed reserv reserve president esther george. i don't know how you think that impacts and connects and how the fed might be thinking about it affecting our economy and geo-global political issues.

>> a most horrific event. any time you have these geo political events pop up, it introduces an additional layer of uncertainty to the markets and to officials that will have to think about the interest rate policy. >> on friday, long before what took place in israel happened, we were talking about in the morning you saw, you know, the futures were down on what seemed like good news on the employment side, then things seemed to get better, in large part because i think people were looking through the straight unemployment numbers and looking at wages and how actually limited that had gone in terms of moving up and similarly in terms of hours worked. what was your read on that report and how hot things really are or aren't?

>> well, we've been dealing with a very tight labor market for some time. so the surprise i think for. us was to see the strength of people coming back into the workforce in that report and the fact that the previous this month were revised. at the same time the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%. and i think my own take as i look under the covers of that report, you are did not see acceleration in wages coming from that. as you mentioned, the average hours of worked hours seemed to be steady there. and i think the good news is you have more people participating now in the workforce. so all of that suggests that some of the momentum that was hitting that labor market may be steadying itself now. it doesn't suggest that employers aren't continuing to have some challenges around

keeping that workforce there, but it is a strong labor market for sure but not one i think that is showing particularly alarming signs in terms of more tightness. >> so put yourself back in the room with jay powell and the gang. what would you be saying when they would come to you? >> well, i think if i look at the work of the fed, they have done a lot over the past year. inflation looks like, and again we'll be very interested in this week's inflation report, whether it continues this trend of showing inflation moderating. i think that will be such an important signal to the committee. but i do think this is a time to be very cautious and careful in reading the data that's coming in and listening to businesses describe what they're experiencing on the ground.

i don't think it is the time to react unnecessarily. and so my own take on this is i think the fed can be patient right now, notwithstanding the fact that they are very clear they haven't achieved their price ability objective yet. >> so the big question is do they age, do they raise or it's actually are they raising or doing nothing, it's actually are they lowering. could you conceive of that at this point. >> i think if you look at the dot plot from their most recent meeting, you will see they kept another rate hike in there and i read that to mean they have not concluded that they've achieved their inflation objective. when you look out, those rate cuts have been pushed back.

i think that is once the rate effects really begin to kick in and i think we have not yet seen the full effect of those, you could expect later next year a situation where they will be in a position to contemplate whether higher for longer suggests they will have to move back on some of those rate cuts. >> when you have an unexpected event like this attack on israel over the weekend, what's the reaction? what were the fomc discussing in that meeting and what were they talking about when they were discussing. were you trying to see what unexpended confidents are coming or do you keep your head down and focus on the data? >> in time you have an event around the world, the fomc not only acknowledges it but does

try to understand what are the implications of that. you see in the fomc's own statement in their meeting. they've highlighted the implication of ukraine in the context of what it met for supply chains for equity market, oil and gas. as they look at this most recent terrible event, i think they will also have to be internalizing what does this mean for the world, what does it mean particularly watching energy markets, price of oil beginning to tick up there, whether that moves in a meaningful way i think there be something they'll have to keep an eye on. always in front of the committee has they think about the multiple factors they have to internalize in making their decisions. we look forward to talking to you again very, very soon. >> thank you.

coming up, an interview and you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. is it possible my network could take my business diminishes wrinkled skin to the next level?

it is with comcast business. powering all your devices with gig-speed wifi. and you get fast downloads and uploads. pick it up! pick it up! oh we got this! because it's powered by the next generation 10g network. more speed for your business? it's not just possible. it's happening. get started for $59.99 a month for 12 months. plus, ask how to get an $800 prepaid card with a qualifying internet bundle. comcast business, powering possibilities. the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network.

as we told you at the top of the hours, israel has begun what its defense minister calls a full siege of the gaza strip in reaction to the attacks by hamas. at least 1,200 people have been killed in the violence. joining us is someone who has covered the middle east for a very long time, the "new york times" foreign affairs columnist tom friedman. what are the broader implications? what have you heard? >> in terms of your viewers, becky, there's a real potential here for a much wider conflict. as horrific is this hamas attack on israel and now going to be i'm sure a major israeli operation in gaza. i think the long-term danger is that it is discovered in which there are a lot of indications that this was in sense a

combined operation by iran and hamas in order to stop in its tracks the abubudding normalizan between saudi arabia and israel and to strengthen the pal approximately authority, the competitive palestinian power center to hamas that rules the west bank. so as that becomes more apparent, that is going to be a huge source of tension where that goes between israel and iran. and the great fear is that iran's proxy in lebanon, hezbollah, will open a second front in northern israel by rocketing northern israel and if that happens, it's katie bar the door. >> and that's why the u.s. is sending war ships to the mediterranean to be there, to try and keep something like that from happening. but if it is confirmed that iran was the one that backed this,

that planned this, that put this together, which it certainly appears to be the case, how does israeli not retaliate and if they do retaliate, what's the fallout? >> israel and iran have been fighting a proxy war in syria and lebanon now for the last 15 years at least. israel and the previous government pe pioneered a new approach to iran, which was don't think because you're not on our border that we won't track you and hunt you down. every time there was an attack by iran's proxies on israel. and i think you could easily see that. you could see other things. i don't know, this is kind of uncharted territory. from an israeli point of view,

they've got to do one thing at a time right now and that is take on hamas in gaza. if the goal was to shut down saudi arabia and israel, what's the saudi's response to this? >> it's a really good question. their initial response was to issue a statement very sympathetic tole palestinians and in a way hostile to israel. i wouldn't take that as their long. term view. they're not going to jump into the are but they're not going to -- what i've been saying to israeli contacts is when an event like this happens, becky, the first question i think you have to ask yourself as a country is what does my enemy want and now let's do just the opposite. so i know what iran and hamas want. they want israel to invade gaza

and get completely bogged down in house-to-house fight which will have its own costs and equal the moral ball for hamas. that will radicalize the whole muslim world. i think the real challenge for israel is how does it deter hamas and respond without falling into the quagmire of gaza and at the same time actually quickening the pace of pegss, paired with progress between israel and the palestinian authority that governs the much more modern, governs the west bank. i hope that will be the long-term dynamic because i think it's so important for israel to ask itself, what does my enemy want.

>> let's do exactly the opposite. >> we've had a raging debate in washington and throughout the country about whether to support ukraine, how much money to send to ukraine. i i imagine there's going to be asks for money at a time when we don't have a speaker of the house and the question about whether the governor here will be shut down. how do you think all of that plays? >> andrew, it's a really serious problem as i flagged in my column over the weekend, which is jake sullivan, the national security adviser spends a good part of every day scrounging up weaponries it and patriot missiles. the flow of western weapons to

ukraine is cut off for a week, they're finished. he's just going to have free reign of the skies. can i say to every one of the republican lawmakers talking about cutting off military aid to ukraine, that is one of the most shameful, embarrassing, disgusting things i can imagine an american government doing in the history of our country. what the hell is wrong with you people? we have aided these people in defending their country for a year plus? and you're going to say, oh, that's too bad, not working, going to cut them off? i can't imagine what the implications would be for our relationship. it is incomprehensible to me. it issin credibly shameful that

anyone would relate to that. >> how do you relate that back to israel? s that the next piece of this. >> israel holds the best stockpile of weapons. the united states has already come to israel and asked them to send hawk missiles to ukraine. they had to keep them in reserve. so this dynamic between israel and ukraine and the west, the united states and nato is going to come into play here and putin is watching very closely. >> tom, you said before that your message to this audience would be what? what do you think this audience can and should be doing? >> you know, this is now between -- this is -- we're in this moment, becky, in in story where it's going to be about raw

power against raw power. you know, i was talking to friends in israel this morning and the mood there os there's real despair. this was a complete breakdown of israel's deterrence and intelligence capabilities. it just shocking to people. and so to me what i try to do in my column is always think about our saving the middle east. real politics happens not the morning after but the morning after the morning after. what israeli is going to do hamas, the fundamental question is who can real gaza if.

hous benjamin netanyahu has spent years trying to undermine the palestinian authority. you're going to see a real clash between those two policies. >> we spoke to krnl jack jab ons a little while ago. he said part of the problem is that hostages are all over the place and he has learned that the united states and israel will do anything to get hostages back. >> at a time where hamas now holds an unprecedented number of israeli and evidently some american, european and canadian hostages that it was able to abduct as part of this process. it's part of the hellish

decision israel will have to make, possibly sup plant hamas where they have 120 and many are elderly and young children. they're holding them. it's a hell of a situation. i don't have some sim m we appreciate your time today. >> any time. >> coming up on the other side of this, more we're going to speak to oklahoma senator mark mullin. and dan sewharst tedn y e ayun you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. let newage products transform your garage

into an area of your home you can be proud of. modular steel cabinets let you pick and choose the storage solutions to keep your garage organized, with overhead racks and shelving, slat wall, workstations and flooring that let you create a showroom garage to call your own. designed for diy installation. all you need is one weekend to take your garage from unusable to unbelievable. visit us at newageproducts.com. this is spring semester at over 13,000 us school districts, which have become top targets for ransomware attacks. but there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook. which is why thousands of schools like the fairfield-suisun unified school district

switched to google tools for education. so they can focus on teaching and 22,000 students can focus on learning, knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ ) ever since she was a little ki, all maría wanted to do was bak. kn i'm maría alvarez,ta owner of maría's cakes. and i'm axel, proud to be her state farm agent. her baking superpowers have brought sweetness to our community. i make delicious cakes to make special occasions even better. maría doesn't just bake; she also creates opportunities. small businesses like maría's, open doors for communities to thrive. support your community. support small business.

coming up right after this break, oklahoma senator markwayne mullin joins on america's potential response to this weekend. he serves on the armed services committee. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics.

fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

this weekend's attack on israel by hamas is drawing attention to the u.s. and the dysfunction in congress. the house currently has no speaker. military promotions are being

held up in the senate and there's arguing over how much foreign aid the u.s. should supply. joining us is oklahoma republican senator mark wayne mullen, a member of the armed services committee and also served for ten years in the house with former speaker kevin mccarthy. among other things, we could use a functioning house given the events of the weekend. and then there's myriad other reasons for it. how do you see it playing out, how quickly and how much turmoil are we going to see, senator? >> well, joe, i'm hopeful that the house will get this resolved pretty quick. k kevin mccarthy, a dear friend of mine, should never have been removed. republican speaker, poor timing on their part because they

wanted to promote themselves and now we have a very dysfunctional prong we are addressing the first round, which we see hamas backed by iran. this is a time for unity. >> it's going to -- i can't see anything other than a protracted, um, events of the coming week with this. do you think there issin a favorite candidate at this point, not enough votes? sfli think the house is coming to a could and offered by many calculations i get there and both can unify i think, with

prum and jim has a very rapport with the freedom caucus being a form are chair there and he was also a very strong ally in the latter years for kevin mccarthy. of course they had their dichss in the beginning but they really put those to bed and worked strong together. as you saw mccarthy put him as chair of judicial committee and he took a very strong stance as chairman. so i think jim probably has the best opportunity right now but we'll see. i really hope that this is resolved come wednesday and we can really start focusing on threats around us. >> so you figure that the aid, i don't know for lack of a better term, the aid rebels would go for joining? what about the centrists? >> well, that's where i think kevin mccarthy can play a little

bit of a role here. jim jordan with his friendship, true friendship and strong defense of kevin mccarthy towards the end was -- spoke well to us and i mean us as very strong friend of kevin mccarthy. they will vote how the heck they want to vote right now but what they did was unexplainable and unexcusable. remember, it was eight that joined the 208 democrats, not the rest of the republicans. so these eight had already dug their bed and cover themselves up. they're going to do what they do and i. >> it's seen as a complete long shot but there's a political piece. sen p centrist gop mccarthy

picks up steam over the weekend. >> there have been endorsements already. different house members have made endorsements. it would be hard to put humity i think it's fair but i would love to see kevin mccarthy back at speaker. itting is to be steve sclees where the momentum for kevin mccarthy to come back could be put in place. i think it would be very hard for those eight to turn back around and support him. maybe those eight would just say present and maybe that would be where the conference can come together. but i would say that if there's not a speaker elected by thursday evening, kevin mccarthy with be obviously the choice to come back in and.

i do think that is far fetched but i would love to see it. >> no way democrats play role in any -- the number is. >> i've been held hostage by matt gates and there's no way i'm going to be held hostage by the democrats at this point. i don't think there's going to be any chance they play in role in this moving forward. they're loving what's taking place for political gain. people hurt you a lot to gain themselves a little in politics and so the democrats do nothing

more but want to hurt and they're loving what's happening and we played right into their game. we can't really blame this on them. it's our fault. but they're not going to help. >> what's the first thing, in a conference where you only need a majority of the conference? can they win at that and that's when they'll decide who has the best chance of getting a majority of the house to go for it? >> so tuesday they're going to come together and this is where the candidate forum will take place. the speaker will have to be nominated by a couple people and then there will be a nomination speech that will be given. i think at that time i don't know exactly how they're going to -- if they're going to allow the candidates to ask questions or if they'll just go right into the nomination forums and then they will try to get just a

majority. all they got to do for the speaker is get the majority of the conference to move the floor. i don't see how they'll move to the floor unless they have 218 on the board. they're not going to do the same thing when they took the floor in january. when i say "we," i'm not part of body anymore but i sure miss it. when the house moves to the floor, ne they will have 218 one speaker so they won't -- >> you miss it? >> i do. >> seems like they have to actually do things over there. >> no one would have convinced me the senate would have been much busier than the house. my schedule is much busier. >> it is? >> it is, by far. we have a whole state to take care of it. but the house is just -- it moves at a different pace and i

can compare the house and the senate like going to high school and going to college. we all have fond memories of being in high school. >> that's seven years of my life, i know. >> senator, thank you. that's from "animal house," i think, seven years of college down the drain. good to have you on again, senator. hope we do this a lot. thank you. >> joe, any time. thanks for having me on. >> when we come back, the impact on the energy sector from this weekend's attack on israel. next, though, we will be joined by former white house foreign policy advisor. we'll be right back.

what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere?

we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

welcome back. as we discussed, the attacks on israel, we want to describe wall street's view of the conflict. i want to bring in the co-author "start-up nation" and "the genius of israel," which will be

out next month. how does this end? >> you got to understand, first of all, this is like no war that israel has ever been involved in. just on a proportional basis, the u.s. is about 40 times the times of israel's population. this is like seven 9/11 events. imagine 9/11 and then after 9/11 there were terrorists still roaming around in the united states, something like 20 community, towns, going neighborhood to neighborhood and then the hostages and then the terrorists take these hostages, 130, 150 into gaza. israel has made the decision that for about 20 years they've learned to live with hamas on its border, has awful as that was and they'd have skirmishes every couple years, 2008/2009,

2013/2014. israel left gaza in 2005. hamas took over in gaza in 2007. israel said we tried being out of gaza for the last couple decades. we're just trying to manage hamas's co-existence there. it not practical anymore. the israeli leadership view is hamas's political leadership need to be wiped out and what that looks like, the next three weeks will be pretty bad. >> what does it mean it looks like in the density of gaza and where hamas is played out not over the rest of this woo week but where does iran, saudi fit

into this picture? where do we fit into it? >> as you said, it's the most -- it's one of if not the most densely populated geographies in the world. there will be massive silcivili casualties. they put armament capabilities next to day care centers, schools. israel will try to avoid it. it was a war. what was most jarring about this weekend was there was clearly a strategic decision made that not only were they going to send these 1,000 terrorists into israel but that they were going to systematically rape, slaughter, kidnap children, capture children, grandparents,

women and document it all. you've all that your systematically documenting it. why would they do that? one, you start to see the glee with which they are celebrating the tormenting and butchering of these -- >> but it therefore opens up the possibility that in retail yags the israelis can very well feel quite comfortable attacking places where unfortunately civilians may -- >> it will never be the design of the israeli strategy, if you go back to previous conflicts in gaza, israel has gone out of way and get out of this area, war is going to a to be intense.

this strategy used against israel, i think there was a sense in tehran, that israel wasable to strike and i think the psychological warfare was to capitalize on that. andrew mentioned this book i have coming out about the resilience of brazilian society. you look at these domestic critical they think, oh, israel's divided, it's broken. it moment. the moment and i think that is the greatness calculation by hamas. >> speaking of divided countries and i'm not saying our problems had anything to do with anything

but they do have something to do with funding for israel, with a united response to all of this. we have no house. >> when you think about tehran, you think about iran, who appears to be the architect of this whole -- >> you think they knew we got problems? >> a week ago the irani revolutionary group was present. that's when they green lit this whole operation. >>. >> they felt that they had a shot at doing that. then they have dysfunction to agreed how to do their function in if the. i think they're most concerned

about the saudi situation. and then the symbolic timing on doing this on 50th anniversary of the yom kippur war -- >> you say most concerned about the saudi field? >> yes. i think the so think of heightened tensions between israel and the it would make it harzer for saudi arabia to do itpart of what attracted saudi arabia to israel, one of the reasons saudi arabia has drawn closer to israel in the last few years, a, because saudi arabia is the technical super pourer,

b, israel is a military super power. this weekend they tested the military and intelligence piece. and the ad saudis are going hoob wow. does not only have to respond because ut -- israel needs to send a message to the saudis. we are the military u.s. jugger nut that you thought we were but watch us respond and we'll restore your confidence. >> you don't want to respond and make it a multi--prong war. how do do you that? >> it's soon to so geding rid of

the military capabilities of gaza. the next question is how it deals with iran. >> but everyone assumes this is doable, that you can rid gaza of hamas, that you can -- >> well, you could rid gaza of hamas but the question is then who's in charge? the fatah, the palestinian thorn, used to run the so if israel drives off hamas now, who is in charge of them? is this not going to reokay poos gaz. >> we're in over time.

we'll have to get you back. the venture capital community, all of that that is in opinion if you look at past conflicts out of trillion, you have over 400 multi-national companies, every major tech company you know of has a major operation pr operations didn't stop, companies didn't pull out their operations. i don't think anything changes. if anything, i think it strengthens the aenl was community. most people are themselves soldiers or will be in reserves and have a tremendous sense of national pride. >> thank you. hope to continue this conversation. coming right back on "squawk" in just a moment.

♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world.

♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪ ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity.

oil prices climbing following this week's attack on israel with renewed tngs ension the middle east. and joining us, a cnbc contributor. john, we have seen prices up this morning but nowhere near the highs we've seen in recent weeks. what does this mean for the oil market? >> well, it's a moment of pause, becky. it's a matter of what shoe drops next year. obviously if it appears or is

alleged this iran's fingerprints is on all of this. you're talking about the strait of hormuz of all coming into play here. that's the worry for the oil market and taking these who are sk when there was an attack on saudi arabia's facility. >> which is the imagine, port facility on saudi arabia, it was a blip on the radar for the oil market. the problem if they are amassing 300 troops, they're not there for show. this thing could escalate ands that what the oil market is holding its breath for right now, while being reasonable about the price reaction at the same time. >> so where do you think oil prices are headed? it's impossible to know what will happen from here. >> i think you have to position for more potential up side in

the short term. again, given the rhetoric that's going to come flying out of this and whatever action again taken. what's going to moderate that is with saudi arabia's massive production and cutback these days, we have a nice size cushion a disruption of the straight ordinance very will be -- no, this will push us back to 1995. is this built into the price? yes. so more up side from here because the economic concerns take a back seat to this geo political risk that is staring us right in the face. >> john, thank you. we will continue to watch it this morning. we will take a very quick look at the market. the futures still under pressure. these are about the worst levels

we've seen of the session. dow futures down by about 215 points, s&p off by 30, the nasdaq indicated down about 120. we've been watching what's been happening with yields. we will continue to follow all of this throughout the day right here on cnbc. you see the 30-year right now just 4.05%. >> the bond market is closed. >> the stock market opens in just a half hour. it's time for "squawk on the street." >> good morning.