>> jon, we had this mid-day market turnaround. we have inflation data, bank earnings later in the week. a lot going on. >> indeed. for now, that's just about going to do it for "overtime." >> that's right. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. israel now ordering a full siege of gaza following the deadly attacks by hamas this weekend. the terror and the geopolitical tensions rippling through global markets. the impact to energy, consumer, and your money coming up. plus, storming the castle. activists upping a stake in disney and upping the pressure on bob iger. and later, oprah doing an about-face. the media titan just couple weeks ago saying taking obesity drugs was taking the easy way out. today, she's changing her tune. the details, the connection straight ahead. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight --

tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start with the major market turnaround. rebounding and rallying to close up 200 points on the day. the s&p 500 closing up more than half a percent and the nasdaq surging 52 points, all as investors shake off the war in israel following the deadly hamas terror attacks over the weekend. crude and brent popping 4%. biggest gains since early april. gold up more than a percent and a half, and the defense sector moving higher. airline, travel-related names suffering. major carriers including united, delta, american, suspending service to tel aviv. the late-day rebound coinciding with commentary coming from fed speakers. steve liesman will be along shortly with all of that. but we begin with the question, why are markets so calm in a seemingly world of crisis at this point? guy? >> this is a hard show. we have to be careful. we understand what's going on,

we're respectful of that, but we are tasked to do something in the lens of the market. i think part of it is this belief that interest rates will fall on the back potentially of the fed or maybe the market will do it itself in the form of some safe haven asset, which should theoretically be supportive of stocks, on top of twhich, the 4200 level we've traded down to has been a line in the sand that we've held. tim talks about the setup of positioning, it's a big part of it. the real issue for the markets will be understanding everything that's going on, now with this fed rhetoric seeming lie dovish, what happens if these inflation numbers are somewhat hot this week? that creates a bit of a problem. >> on thursday. >> before the horrors of the weekend, though, we had an intraday reversal on friday that was more defining than any of this. and i think this was just a continuation. i think yields started to give ground. kind of fed like that cpi day back in october of 2022, when you had really strong data. in that case, it was inflation data, the highest print we've seen, and the lowest the market got and rallies off that point.

i feel like we had some of that. we're going to wait to talk about the fed with steve, but i feel like market and an s&p that sold off 8%, almost as if it was supposed to. and you had this relative outperformance by stocks that need to lead the market. so, you have the seven, whatever we're calling them, the aaqqqs have dominated on friday. at least this move, a relative high with the s&p, which we've been waiting for. i'm not saying -- i'll let the market do what it does, but a lot of this stage was set on friday. the fact that yields had such a big move. karen, the flight to quality, all the things that we're talking about mean that i actually think equities can trade higher. industrials, utilities, staples, all of these things have had big, scary, i think, at least temporary bottoms. >> the bid for bonds. the bond market was closed today, but through the tlt through bond futures, we know

there was a bid, as expected, for bonds, and so yields would be lower, would ease the pressure off stocks. >> right. though we have seen geopolitical events where there's the flight to qualify and a flight away from equities. and we didn't see that -- we saw it in the morning, but by the end of the day, we certainly didn't see that. i think, to your point, this could all go away if we see a really hot number. i think maybe the next meeting will, okay, maybe that's not on the table, but certainly for one after. so, i think we could reverse all this. the last -- from friday morning, the market was looking down 200 points and so that rally from there through that giant rally friday through this rally today, that's a pretty big reversal. >> 3%. >> yeah. and so, i feel like -- getting -- this mini bounce, think is near the end. >> tim's point about all the sectors that were down 10% plus and there were seven or eight of them, right? and there was definitely a flight to quality in some of the biggest tech names that kept the

biggest indices afloat. it got right to that 4200 number, that was that rising 200-day moving average, so, that was a big technical spot. and sentiment was bad. so, when you have an event like this, we were all glued to our tvs and reading this all weekend long, and this just doesn't feel great, right? the good news is, we have, again, if you are looking at through the lens of the market, we have earnings that are coming up. a pepsi tomorrow morning, before the opening. you know, that stock was down at its lows yesterday, i think 20% or something from its all-time highs, just a few months ago. i don't think the sentiment gets that much worse. you have a stock that was trading at 27 times, now at about 20 times next year's number. at about a market multiple. we haven't seen that in a stock like pepsi in a very long time. all that being said, that could happen to apple, too. it just happened to ten household -- literally household names that we all took for granted, right, staples and they trade like that, at that

multiple, for a reason. so, i just say, you know, as we get into earnings, let's see what the fundamentals say, because the geopolitical situation around the world is not going to get better. i think we can put our political science hats on and say, this emboldens russia, this emboldens iran, this emboldens china, the list goes on and on. all of that to me sin inflation their. when you think about the move we've had in the last few years to deglobalize, and you look at thedisruptions in the supply chain, all inflationary. rates don't have to go much higher at all. fed fund futures are pricing a less than 15% chance at that november meeting of a hike, that's down from 30 from a week and a half ago. but if growth really stagnates, we're in a stagflationary environment. i know ze s&p earnings have bee down four quarters in a row. >> yeah, and of course, biden's going to meet with xi in

november, so, this is all -- it's an interesting backdrop as we try to mend our relations with china. >> it is. but because we all recognize thatyields may be a function of the geopolitics out there, the dollar may be, and maybe even gold is starting to be, up 50 bucks an ounce since the friday lows. i -- i wonder if you think about it the other way. think about the stocks, we know the qqqs, the biggest seven, google today i think closed at a fresh cycle high and is up 42% against the s&p. everything else, dan, you point this out a lot, you're right a lot of stuff trades awfully. so, if it's autos, the airlines, the consumer stocks. but maybe isn't that the strength of the market? it's not like things are starting to sell off. some of these stocks have been awful for months, if not all year. so, i realize that the qqqs and those big stocks are, you know, going to be the important part of keeping the market --

>> question, though. what are you buying right now if you are buying the stock market? are you buying an inflection in the economy? an inflection up. we just talked about consecutive earnings growth, economic data that has held in there and it's avoided this sort of recession that the stock market last october was pricing a near certainty, right, when we were down at 3600. so, if you are buying right here, down 5%, 6%, from the recent highs, you -- you have to be optimistic about the economy. you have to be optimistic that companies that have been cutting costs fairly dramatically are going to be able to actually reexpand margins. >> do you think that? >> if you are buying the index, you're buying for an inflection. if you are buying ing individu stocks, you're buying pepsi, because it's so bombed out in terms of its valuation. >> another example. delta airlines, for example, i think in the spring we thought it could trade up to 49, which was a prior high. that's exactly what happened and it stopped. it has given the entire move back. it's 35.25ish. they report, i think, thursday

before the bell. i mean, that is a setup that i think you want to get your involved in. when things are at their best in terms of the news cycle for these airlines is the time to sell them. conversely, when you get news like you're getting now, respectfully, that's sort of the time to buy them. especially into earnings with a company with a tremendous balance sheet. >> back to your question, what are you buying? buying individual names and i look at something like a meta, i think we'll see ad sale improvement, i think we'll see greater efficiency, i think there's some a.i. magic there, as well. but -- so, that's a name, for example. i lookjpmorgan. if you go home long, same as buying it at the close. i like the setup there. 3% yield, less than nine times earnings. specifically buying -- >> you just listed two really good names. like, so, like, i think we can all look at some of these staples and say, i don't know, you know? or some of these transports or

airlines -- i don't know. from a trading standpoint, you want to set up -- the risk/reward sets up good, but who is that nimble, you know, just to take a little crack on some of those things. maybe you are, maybe you're not. >> if you are the trading the market every day, you're brave. if you're saying delta, at guy's point, everything they're telling us is at least their business to this point has been very strong, pre-covid, all that, but back to the staples. general mills, which is -- i think around 13 times, p pre-covid, about 15 times, if you look at the five-year multiple, so, it's cheap, it's not crazy cheap. you look at -- let's see, i had some written down here, if you have a conagra, 16 times, now at ten times. i think you can buy them. and you are making investments in company thats you know it's going to be rocky. the utilities have been down for a year. that next era dynamic, we can debate that until we're blue in the face, but i think the

utilities are overdone. >> i can't see -- >> trading stocks. >> if the very near term, are there going to be more routes? you know what i'm saying? i don't really see anything that's particularly positive other than valuation, so, if you want to hold your nose and buy delta down 35%, do that, but it might be a really rocky environment for these stocks. >> you didn't say have at it. >> i'm a little off. i'm a little off. fed speak today giving investors a sense that the committee would be done raising rates this year. let's bring in steve liesman. steve, why do you think the fed seems to be leaning dovish at this point? >> well, i'm not quite so sure it's leaning as dovish as the market wants to hear right now. for sure they're leaning dovish on the near-term, and that dovishness has to do with whether they need to do another hike this year or even another hike in this cycle. both logan and jefferson, logan from the dallas fed, vice chair phil jefferson, suggested that

hey, maybe we've done enough here but we're going to wait and see. they are both concerned about it. and you can see that in the probabilities, which i think are down for two reasons. i think the trade when it comes to israel and the terrorist attack by hamas, i believe that's part of it, you know, general risk off trade, but also the comments, if you look at the tale on the tape of these fed features, a big decline in the outlook for the last hike. however, what they're both suggesting is the possibility that because of stronger growth that maybe rates could be higher for longer. so, it's a bit of a mixed bag here. i wouldn't say entirely dovish, maybe doviish near-term, hawkis long-term. >> you mentioned before, steve, there's a cut being priced in mid-year next year? >> so, that's always been there, i'm going to look at it while i talk to you and i'll give you the exact quote on it, but what it has been, melissa, is there's been cut, 40%, 45%, in may,

june, or july, the first cut. and what's happened with the recent, pardon me, dovishness, it's moved up into may. so, right now, the percentages are 46% for a cut in may, 43% to stay the same. that's what it was for june. by the way, probably friday, it was more into july with that strong jobs report, so that's one way that traders far out, in terms of how far they're trading these things, and there's a lot of stuff. it's a complication when you're saying, what will they do in may or june when there's all kinds of stuff they could do before that? that being said, the way the market expresses dovishness and hawkishness is when that first cut comes. right now, today, it's in may. and we'll see what happens tomorrow. of course, the bond market wasn't open, but if you look at the tlt, well, the price rose and the implied yield sank, and so, that suggests that when

bonds do open, yields could run quite a bit lower. >> steve, maybe you can take us into the mash nations -- what we saw over the weekend, historic for a myriad of different reasons, and obviously affects a number of different things in our world. will they get on a call with each other and discuss that? is that something you know or can talk about? >> it's not something i know. if i did know about it, i could talk about it, because i would say so, but guy, i'm guessing any kind of major geopolitical situation comes along, the fed's on the phone with each other, they're on the phone with experts, they may even be on the phone with the white house. i would assume that. right now, guy, what i'm hearing from macro economists who i have spoken to today is very limited macro impact. principally, through the oil channel, seems to be initially the case. of course, there is some change in the risk appetite and the risk outlook in the market. but it is also interesting to think about the vulnerability of

the united states. we are producing an awful lot of our energy now, if you look at the import to export ratio of oil, it is down near historic lows. even though the spr is down, as well. we have a tremendous amount of north american production right here so, the race income that score, i would say, if you were to compare it to the '70s, would be much, much less than it was there, so -- that risk is off -- is lessened quite a bit, i would say. >> steve, thank you so much for joining us. steve liesman. >> pleasure. >> interesting to hear steve's take in terms of, you know, it may not be as dovish as you think, because rates are higher because maybe growth is actually that good. >> well, they said that. they said that they think higher rates -- higher for longer, but they said that rates are probably reflect investors' assessment of the economy. higher rates reflect investors'

assessments of term premium, of technical factors, a refunding schedule, a federal deficit that's getting bigger by the second. it's all these things into one. but think of the move we've had in rates so quickly, and bring it back to the stock market, the stock market has all kinds of headwinds, and there's valuation die name ins. but if rates give some ground and that -- if -- >> you say rates, what are you saying, cpi, or -- >> no, i mean the yield curve and i mean certainly what we've seen on the long end, where at least a lot of equities and discount rates are priced. we just had a very, very, very strong payroll number on friday. 260 average over the last three months. no disputing the job market has not weakened. the next week nfp, markets are going to rally. and i don't know when that's going to be, maybe it's going to take longer, but we know the labor market is getting weaker. our next guest suggests you can kiss the idea of a new bull market good-bye unless we get a big drop in rates. chief market strategist tony

dwyer is with us now. you don't think rates are moving higher because the economy is stronger? >> mel, i don't. i think it's moving higher -- if you pinpoint the peak moment for the s&p 500, it was july 31 itself, when janet yellen talked about increasing the size of the treasury and she wants by a third more than expectations, to a trillion dollars for the quarter following the debt ceiling crisis. so, you increase supply significantly, a trillion dollars in a quart, and at the same time, you've got quantitative tightening. so, the fed's not buying them, you've got silicon valley bank, post-sill icon valley banks, whh means the regionals aren't adding to them. and then of course you have japan and china supporting their currency. i really think part of it is a supply and demand imbalance that's caused all of credit to trade to a significant high and that is really to what tim just said, that's going to be the catalyst to rally this thing. really rally this thing, which isn't too far away, is when bond

yields start to drop and reflect the weaker economy. >> you're light and tight right now. what does that mean? >> it's annoyingly boring for this long, mel. it means, just to stay in a little extra cash and tight to the benchmark. the reason for that, i'm bearish economically, all the clients know that, people that watch this show know. i think we're going into recession, i -- i really am highly convicted to that. the reason i'm more -- not more negative to the market, meaning get the heck out and don't look back, is because so many stocks are already so smoked. you guys talked about pepsico, the airlines. remember in the summertime, when you had to think the economy is going to boom, because the airlines were ripping and everybody was traveling? right? so, then it was the home builders, because there was tight supply and they rallied to a new high and both areas fell. and my guess is, to the debate that we're having, the talk you were having before i came on, energy is probably that next

space that's having this incredible move higher, certainly on the tragic geopolitical events over the weekend. it's helping that, but ultimately, once you -- if you believe the airlines are cheap, the only way they rally is if oil comes down. if oil comes down, bonds are going to rip. our call right now, mel, as you know, tactically is for oversold bonds. until you get that dramatic improvement, i don't think you're going to have the significant sustainable bull market. >> tony, it's karen. thanks for being on. where you are in terms of credit risks expansion? >> so, karen, what i look back for is any economic recovery, whether it's a soft landing or coming out of a recession, it's always been driven by a significant sustainable drop, and not just fed policy, it's typically, honestly in the soft landi ing not really fed policy. it's a change in tone in the fed that starts mortgage credit and u.s. treasury credit.

so in 1995, you know, the time that folks want to pretend we're in now, you had -- you had a 200-basis point drop and all of those areas. mortgage,corporate, and treasury. during 1995. we're in a cycle high, so, karen, i think the risk is, until you see that significant stone change in the fed, like they had in february of '95 at the last rate hike there, that kick-started that rally, i think that's what really gets us going. we're just not there yet. >> tony, great to see you, thank you. >> thank you, mel. >> tony dwyer. >> light and tight. >> light and tight. tight and light. >> like guy. >> he's good -- >> i'm dark and stormy. >> we're going to get to the glp-1s later. i'll talk about light and tight. he's a great strategist. guy, we talked last week, when it comes to unemployment, we've lost 3 million workers out of the work force, during covid,

and now, a lot of companies don't want to let go of workers just yet, essentially into this seasonal sort of thing. so, it is kind of the one data point, if you think about, from an economic standpoint, that really does lend itself to the economy's stronger than maybe a lot of us think, or a lot of strategists think, or even a lot of corporates think. when you think about it, because none of the guidance that we've heard, a lot of companies that we think are really impactful, are really that optimistic, that have a lot of visibility one way or another, so, maybe the -- >> it's too tight. >> the unemployment thing is just different this time. >> there it is, people, haveat it. >> it's too tight. we're going to get weak numbers. we haven't had any. we haven't had any. and so, it's just taken a lot longer than i think the fed has expected. coming up, disney dispute. activist investor nelson pelts reviving his proxy fight with the media giant. what his firm is doing and the board seat shuffle he's looking for. details next. plus, more action in the pharma space.

bristol myers looks to boost its cancer business with a nearly $6 billion deal. that's straight ahead. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. how's the chicken? the prawns are delicious. oh, i have a shellfish allergy. one prawn. very good. did i say chicken wrong? tired of people not listening to what you want? it's truffle season! ah that's okay... never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art. enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you.

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welcome back to "fast money. activist investor nelson pelt

reigniting a potential proxy battle with disney, just months after dropping its initial fight. taking a stake of more than 30 million shares, worth more than $2.5 billion and planning to push for multiple board seats. according to sources familiar with the matter. does knee now trading near $85 a share, that's about $25 below where it traded when pelt ended his last campaign in february. is nelson peltz the answer? tim? disney shareholder, what do you say? >> i don't know, because it seems that the last catalyst that peltz was bringing on was aggressive cost-cutting and trying to get to profitability, and that was good for a rally in the disney stocks, but we're stick around the big issues around disney. i think you do get back to valuation on disney. you get back to the parks business. the trailing parks numbers are fantastic. so, the trailing parks means that disney's trading, you get the entire rest of the company for free for what the ebitda historically -- actually cheap

for the parks ebitda. i don't love some of the challenges ahead of them, but the assets are worth a lot. >> you ask the question, is he the answer? i don't know, but he's not the problem. he has an interesting history of being an activist that is really in it for a long-term. >> right. >> and so, he's done that a number of times. mostly with success. occasionally not. ge is one. but -- proctor & gamble, very successful one. so, i think -- i don't think disney can look to the shareholders and say, don't worry, we got this. i think having another voice on the board might be beneficial. we don't know. but i think he also has a decent shot of winning at least one seat. >> he wants a seat for himself. >> wasn't allen iverson nicknamed the -- >> you were in my head. everybody's in my head. that's why i have a headache. the only answer, as tim pointed out, is allen iverson who is a huge "fast money" fan, oddly enough, to, shoutout to a.i. we talked about this last week.

>> oddly enough. >> conversation about disney sit -- sticking to their knitting. they were starting to get back to its corecompetencies. got to 78 and change last week, maybe that was enough. i don't know that fellsnelson i pro answer, but he's not the problem. >> more "fast money" coming up. bristol myers latest buy, and what it will mean for the stock, next. plus, prepping for prime day. amazon hoping buyers will keep adding to their cart. but our next guest says the consumer may finally be starting to buckle. what he sees for the first time in a decade. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform

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welcome back to "fast money." m&a in the pharma space. bristol myers saying it will acquire mirati therapeutics. it will help offset expected revenue losses for some of its popular drugs. shares of both companies falling today. bmy hitting a new 52-week low on the back of this. mirati has $1.1 billion in cash, so, that purchase price doesn't tell the whole story here. guy, what do you think? >> two-year low for bristol myers. you're going to see this -- i think this is the first of many. a lot of the big cap pharmas, basically, if you look at the pipeline they have, it's not that robust. you have to buy growth. how do you have to do that? you have to pay up for it and the market does not reward you for that. they had to do something, they did it. gilliad, similar situation.

bristol myers is in that place where you don't want to be in terms of big cap pharma. the interesting t ing one to me continues to be amemerck. bristol's put themselves in their own purgatory. >> if what guy says is true, and sometimes it is -- >> sometimes. >> karen, you were invested in xbi, on the prem nice they would be the takeout targets. >> right. >> true this time around, you think? because it doesn't seem like we get that sort of expected pop -- >> as opposed to ibb? >> wait, let's back up on this particular deal. they were rumored to be up for sale and the stock went up a ton, and it turned out that the ultimate price was a little bit disappointed. so, if you were in this, which i was definitely not, you did make some money, a fair amount of money. the other thing about, i mean, this is a small deal for bristol myers. to your point, they do have cash, but they have a burn right now, because that's where they

are in the life cycle, but bristol myers is really trading poorly, i mean, a lot of reasons, the whole sector, but eliquis is on the medicare list. i don't know if this changes things, but -- i am long bristol myers. it's been a painful one. >> would you have preferred a bigger deal? >> not necessarily. yeah, not necessarily. no, i think part of their problem is specific to them. part is the sector. >> yeah. like pfizer. >> well, you know, tim's pfizer, i mean, this is a case of exactly what guy said. this is a company that has a pipeline and certainly has the hay day of covid behind it and some money -- a lot of money to apparently buy $30 billion in new revenues. we'll see. this gets back to the a-block. what companies do you want to buy right now? i look across health care and i've got a lot of confidence buying these companies. i realize the growth may be challenged. forget the politics. to me, that's -- you're buying

two, three years out and these companies have priced in really just existential stuff that is important, but these are valuations that are comfortable. coming up, ready to ad to your cart? amazon prime day kicking off tomorrow, and the deals will be flowing. but our next guest says buyers may not be looking to shop until they drop. former walmart u.s. ceo bill simon joins us next to detail why the consumer may finally be starting to tfeel the pressure. the details when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back. another check on how markets finished the day. the dow jumping 200 points. crude and brent both up 4%. the energy sector having its best day since april. gold and silver also jumping just about 2%. as amazon, target, and walmart begin a series of big sales events this week, tour net guest warns that consumer's willingness to spend is starting to buckle. bill simon is on the darden restaurants and hanes brand board, former u.s. ceo of walmart. bill, what are you seeing that

tells you the consumer is going to track? >> hey, melissa. the consumers had an incredible, really 10, 12-year run as they started this recovery and the markets were, you know, buoyant, interest rates were low, and money was available, and we're starting to see this accumulation of, you know, global macro economic issues, geopolitical issues, inflation, interest rates, you know, loan repayments, i mean, we've got really, really contentious election that we're in the middle of, kcongress can't exelect a speaker. i think that sort of pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary. there's some positives going on the consumer markets, as well, you know, unemployment's low and wage rates are up, so, it's a challenge, but i think overall, for the first time in answer

time there's a reason for the consumer to pause. >> are there any specific data points you can share with us, just from you being on the boards of hanes and darden youshgs involvement with walmart, that you can share with us to illustrate how the consumer is behaving differently this time? are you seeing more tradedowns, at the restaurant, maybe the check is getting smaller, you know, maybe people are, i don't know, not upgrading their undergarments as much? >> wow, it's -- >> come on. >> don't answer that. >> let's hope so. >> whatever it may be, consumers doing in hard times. >> i think you can look back to, you know, walmart's report, last quarterly report, and they talked about a very, very large tradedown. you know, and typically what you see during difficult economic times is a tradedown from, you know, middle income down to lower income and upper down to middle. and, you know, you're starting to see that, but you also see

shifts in things like pack sizes at the beginning of the month versus the end of the month, larger pack sizes in the month when they have more cash and buy smaller ones at the end of the month. and all that is starting to, you know, rear its ugly head. and you can tell, even -- look at amazon's, you know, website today and walmart's, as walmart launched their program, there's a lot of interesting things going on. they don't -- they usually say, 50-inch tv, $199 or something like that, and now they say, 50-inch tv, 40% off. and you use percentages when you're not real proud of your price point. i think you got inflation pushing the relative price points up, so even the retailers are feeling the, you know, the inflationary cushion, so, that's going translate into consumer a acceptance of the prices and what they buy. >> do you think that amazon is a

monopoly or has a sort of unfair position relative to other retailers? you would know the retail position in the united states better than just about anybody. >> you know, amazon is a machine that runs these -- you know, if you sort of look at what's happened over the last 20 years, they get people into prime when prime was, you know, originally $49 and we've seen the price of prime escalate and we've seen the number of competitive retailers, you know, decline, right? like what happened to circuit city, what happened to some of the specialty big box stores, they start going away, and i think amazon, you know, only recently started making any money with their retail bu business. they use the funding from their adver advertising.

that's challenging for all but the biggest retailers like walmart and target to compete with. >> so, you do think amazon has an unfair position? >> unfair is a relative term. >> fair enough. we'll read between the lines. what's your favorite pick in retail right now? >> well, they all got something going for them. amazon's a beast. target, you know, i love their position and it's really hard to imagine they could get worse than they were the last couple of quarters. i still like walmart right now, it's solely because of the food business. i think with the traffic their food business drives relative to their probiggest competitors, they're going to have the eyeballs and the foot traffic to probably have a better christmas than maybe their competitors. >> bill, always great to see you. thank you so much for your time. >> you bet. we'll see you. >> bill simon. >> that was an unfair question about updating underwear and stuff. seriously. >> well, guy, faced with a trip

to the olive garden or some new hanes, how do you fall in line? >> funny you say that, i'll take the hanes. that's probably due to my ethnicity. >> i'm not sure what that means. >> i'm not going to olive garden. >> i got it. >> maybe -- i don't know, maybe you're enjoying it, tim. have at it. >> man. >> he said target maybe the worst -- >> fine salad bar. >> stock has been cut in half in two years and i get this really odd feeling that the inventory bug-a-boo that cropped up in the spring of '22 is about to crop up again into the holiday season. >> who ho ho. >> yeah. >> kellogg and kellanova have dropped sharply. kellogg's is down 20%. why are investors souring on this split? tim, you were observing the cereal side of the business

today. >> yeah, look -- there's no question that there are pressures falling on staples companies. we've outlined it. the correlation to yield-based plays, whether it's utilities or oir things that have had a time time, that's part of it. these are companies that have costs that, i think, are very different than what they had two years ago and they don't have the ability to pass on these prices. i think that klg coming out of that spinoff where it traded down, a 50% hair cut at one point at its low starts to get pret interesting. we talked about it. i think a lot of these companies are cheap relative to their history. i think they can get cheaper, especially when you consider how the move in rates has been. but when you get back to a kraft, a 60% hair cut to its pre-covid average, that company that had its own issues. remember taking it private, bringing it back, and i think you have to be careful which ones you pick. but i love the setup here in

staples. coming up, it's arm day on wall street. why are a handful of firms curling into this stock? we'll hammer into that trade and more when "fast money" returns. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley.

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welcome back to "fast money." wall street wrapping their arms around arm. the market newcoming receiving a slew of buy ratings today. and unlike some of the new street offerings, arm is holding up all right. deer bra bosa has the details. >> remember, this is a stock that popped some 25% on ipody, that was 25 days ago. it's sense then pared gains. is the street was bullish across the board. here's the sampling of what they wrote. muscle behind the brand of the compute, everywhere you look, tech tonic ecosystem play. they hit on this theme everywhere. the rating on the stock came from bernstein who is not involved in underwriting the ipo. they said it's too soon to declare them an a.i. winner. a lot of the bull case rests on markets that arm has yet to go into. right now, it still derives revenue from royalties in a

saturated end market that is smartphones. becoming an a.i. beneficiary that will require them to move into new and challenging markets. they're going to have to overcome new competition that's gaining some momentum and potentially they need to rebalance away from china, so, there's a list of stuff they still got to do, but the notes today, i read ten of them, all ten had buy ratings. these were the banks that underwrote the ipo, so, they had to wait 25 days before they published. >> deidrdre bosa, thank you. all ten underwriters have buy ratings. interesting how that works. dan what do you think? >> she really surrounded the trade there when you think of bernstein, with all the potential -- you look at the sales, the diversify case away from smartphones, just look at a qualcomm. they are not diversified from smartphones. 12 times earnings, okay? when you think about this one. so, if they have to -- if this is all on the come right here, it just doesn't make sense of

this valuation right here. >> hope for a.i.? >> yeah, my whole life. hasn't panned out. last three years, 2.7, 2.7, maybe $3 billion of revenue. that's sort of flattish revenue growth ish. it's expensive. we had rick on the day it became public and we asked that question. he said, don't read too much into that, this is a transformative company. maybe -- maybe. but they're getting rewarded for it in terms of the valuation. >> at this point, the valuation gotten down to a level that's interesting? sort of, but couple of the reports that have come out are pointing to eps of -- jpmorgan has 40% over the next three years and a revenue of 18% plus. based upon that, sure. that's a buy. but that's a lofty target. coming up, the big oh no. oprah winfrey walking back criticism of drug loss drugs. that story is next. more "fast money" in two.

welcome back to "fast money." oprah winfrey doing an about-face after the ww board member said a couple weeks back that she wouldn't take ozempic or obesity drugs to lose weight.

oprah saying, i have to do this on my own. taking the drug is the easy way out. in a statement, she walked back her comments. my position on the use of prescription medication was misconstrued and taken out of context. i believe that medications are an important and viable option to consider for people who are struggling with weight and health-related issue. every person should be able to choose what wellness and good health means for them without any scrutiny, stigma, or shame. ww shares surging more than 13% on those comments. now, if you remember, they started offering users a way to take the obesity drugs as part of their program earlier this year. sort of a lifeline, if you will, for this company. karen, you've been following this company very closely, but it's interesting the power of oprah and how much she can move this stock. >> yes. well, i mean, this -- one of my biggest misses ever, the day she bought 5%, became the spokesperson, and the stock went from, like, 7 to 11, it's kind of high.

on its way to 100, where she did sell it. good for her. i don't know if she was misconstrued or not. i don't know that it really matters. this is her statement now. and the new ceo has made a pivot that is a brave pivot, but necessary. because you could just see the business was going away. and so they can either embrace this or not. good for her for doing it. the problem is the balance sheet. they just have too much debt. >> well, if you think about also there being a safe pair of hands, a place for people to walk in -- it's really, they're a perfect intermediary. a lot of people don't have a doctor or wouldn't know who to call to get that prescription. weight watchers has had that kind of touch. they have a marketing book, they have a rolodex, they have a loyalty program. it makes a lot of sense. >> i think the issue is that it flies in the face of 50 or 60 years of this company's mantra, and that's exactly, i think what oprah said, you know, i've been using the glp-1 through ro body. this is a company that's one of

the largest prescribers of this drug. it's a tele health, it deals with the insurance companies. so, there's different companies out there that maybe are more in the picks and shovels space. weight watchers has to reorient their whole business. you can kind of think about how this industry is going to be transformed. and that's kind of interesting, you know, juxtaposition, and again, this balance sheet isn't really made for a pivot. >> right. i mean, the whole thing gets to the businesses that would be disintermediate yated, impacted, by the rise of these drugs and -- >> quick scramble. >> america saying, 1% to 3% of calories will no longer be consumed in the united states. that's a huge number if you think about it, spread across businesses, it may not be an individual impact, but for some, they'll feel it. >> but maybe the fact that everybody's talking about them now, people will maybe -- maybe they will go to try to find a weight watchers. maybe it works for them. over the summer, i think in

july, morgan stanley actually upgraded the stock, $13 price target. they were early and right. actually feels like it could go there. >> all right, up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade. tim? >> some of the health care companies, and yeah, why not tim's pfizer, when you look at their core business, and i realize based upon yesterday, you can't do that. but based upon yesterday, it's less than nine times earnings stay there. >> chairmanwoman? >> something we've been talking about is rates, but something we haven't talked that much about is credit spreads, which i think do have a ways to go outwards, so, i'm short hyg, looking for a bigger spread in credit risk. >> dan? >> yeah, zoom starting to kick the tires on this one, good quarter, good guidance. a third of the market cap is in cash. no debt. you have downside to maybe 60. it's like three to one, upside/downside. >> tim did a beautiful thing yesterday. went to the baltimore orioles

game with his dad who worked for the orioles, it was a beautiful picture. we should put that in, like -- >> pinterest page or something. >> it was a great family day. >> beautiful. >> orioles didn't do their part. >> another game. delta airlines there, sister. >> thank you for watching "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. wall street can factor pretty much everything instantly. but today you could see how hard