good tuesday morning live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. coming up, the latest on the conflict in middle east. council of foreign relations and brookings will both weigh in. raphael bostic making headlines. guggenheim on the ozempic phenomenon and future m&a in that sector. we bregin with breaking new out of the new york fed. for that we'll turn to steve liesman. >> new york fed releasing survey of household consumer expectations and sees the one-year expectations rising to the highest level since june. but not that high. the one-year coming in at 3.7%.

that is up just a tick. still well below the 6, 7 high point in june 2022. the three-year ticking up 0.2% to 2.3%. that is below the 4% high we had there. what hasn't moved is the five-year, it actually came down. i think that's probably the one between the three and the five-year is the one the fed follows most carefully with concern about expectations. some other things, expected price decline for college, gas, medical care and rent, i would have thought gas would have gone up and driven the thing higher. it did not. expectations for food prices surged 0.3 percentage points to 5.6% year over year. americans grew more confident in their job market possibilities, concerned about losing their job declined. confidence in finding a new job if they left, that increased. but there were concerns about missing debt payment.

in fact, that gauge reached the highest level since may 2020. to the comments of atlanta fed raphael bostic, he said he was the first one and only one to use that phrase sufficiently restrictive. he said that was the measure put forward by jay powell. so far bostic is the only one saying this, but not along in suggesting this idea of the fed not needing to increase rates any more. he's maybe more definitive than other dovish talk we've had. he said a lot of policy impact is clearly yet to come. he says we're still a long way to go to get inflation target -- to get to 2% inflation target. does not have a recession in his outlook. sees slower growth. he he says the impact of the war in israel on the economy in the u.s. is uncertain at this point. real quick, guys, take a look at the november fed hike probabilities. down 12%. a big decline. the war in israel a part of it. also the dovish fed comments.

and also bake out the idea the probability of even one coming in december as well. that coming down as well. so pretty much done. then the idea is, guys, we're seeing the market go back and forth between pricing and a cut in in may and june. >> logan and jefferson yesterday, steve, bostic today. there's more this afternoon. who else would join bostic in being such a plain-spoken dove? >> nobody yet. i just want to be clear about the dovish talk that's out there, carl. i think the market is a little too excited about this because what they are saying -- suggesting is that the fed may not have to hike any more because of the work being done for the fed on the long end, but they're not backing off this higher for longer. we'll get relief off front, perhaps not getting that quarter, which in my mind never mattered that much. it's the issue that really, remember, spooked the markets back when the fed had its most

recent meeting. was this the idea of taking away cuts next year, the idea of maintaining the higher level. it's a bit of a trading in a used car for a still used car, carl. >> steve, thanks. we'll watch a lot of fed speak this afternoon. we'll keep our eye on it with your help. let's turn to israel. >> reporter: it's just gone 6:00 pp. hamas warned at 5:00 p.m. they were planning to plan a massive barrage. no one knew whether to take that seriously or not, whether it was just rhetoric from the hamas leadership. at the stroke of 5:00 p.m., the intense barrage began. that is where one of those rockets got through, penetrating israel's iron dome. and all day people in this city

have been running to the air raid shelters. carl, i'd like to show you and your viewers what exactly this looks like. these are what these bomb shelters that israelis have been spending so much time in. it is reinforced concrete. it is not very big. you walk in through this open door -- you don't walk in. you run in, you sprint when the sirens are overhead. my camera operator follows me in. i hope you can still see me in here. you are basically inside a couple feet of concrete, hoping that will keep you safe. it is an odd experience. you run in here and depending on who else is around, just total strangers can be packed in here. you can easily fit if you needed to, 20-plus people. there's a weird -- i don't know if intimacy is the right word but there's a strange feeling you are all in this together. you're making eye contact,

listening to the booms overhead. you feel an actual thump in your chest from the air pressure as those iron dome missiles intercept. i'm going to walk back out now. but you and these strangers, these people you may never see again in your entire life, you have all sort of been through something together. and it is not a good idea to come straight out of the shelter when the sirens stop roaring because for minutes afterwards, shrapnel can be falling from the sky from both the rockets and the iron dome missile interceptors. you may be able to hear the booms behind me. you do not want to be standing out here when that shrapnel comes down. all of this is a very long way of saying that hamas still three days into this is able to keep up this relentless barrage of rocket fire into southern israel. everything we have seen over the course of the day indicates israel is preparing for a massive ground offensive in gaza. we have seen columns of israeli

tanks heading south towards the border. israel has called up 300,000 reservists. the biggest mobilization in a generation. it is potentially devastating for the economy to have so many people out of the workforce and into uniform. but it may be a sign of what is to come. gaza, as you know, is one of the most densely populated place on earth. it's home to 2 million palestinian civilians. some 800 palestinians have already been killed, 900 israelis in just the start of this war. if this ground offensive goes ahead, you'll be looking at urban warfare in the very densely packed streets of gaza city and refugee camps like khan yunis and the death toll will rise. >> what a simple and chilling illustration of daily life there right now. we appreciate that. i know our viewers do, too. we'll talk soon. for more on the conflict in israel, let's bring in our panel

of experts, director of brookings center for middle east policy and steven cook from the council on foreign relations. i'll follow up on what raf was talking about, and that is the possibility of that urban corridor warfare, does that seem likely given the dynamics over these hostage extractions, is what they'll need to be? >> sooner or later it's very likely. the question is when. the mood in israel, it's the main point, it's completely different from previous rounds. this was a 9/11 moment. what seemed like probatively costly just on friday now seems very likely. israel will enter ground operation. it will probably be a massive one. the question is when and how. the main complicating factors, and there are two. one, of course, is the many, many hostages inside the gaza strip, including we now know babies, actual babies in the

hands of hamas. and people of all ages, gender, et cetera. and they're probably spread out as human shields in it the gaza strip. this makes any ground offensive extremely complicated and it was complicated to begin with. the second complicating factor is the threat of a second front, the northern front. hezbollah, lebanon is more powerful than hamas and has signaled it is ready to start fighting and may join the fray. that's what the united states is trying to deter. if it does, it will be a completely different ball game game. not just a nightmare in israel and palestinian, but also lebanon. with the hostages, the danger to them if they go in and the danger of hezbollah getting involved. >> steve, the northern border headlines today about the risk of the conflict spilling over into the egyptian border. that's something the market's

trying to wrestle with right now. where do you think the risk is greatest? >> well, obviously, carl, the risk is greatest along that northern border. the hezbollah has -- is armed with over 100,000 rockets that can reach all parts of israel and hezbollah and iran has threatened israel. in fact, iran by all indications just had a hand in what hamas has done. that is the expectation. the question of what happens along the egyptian border of israeli is something that egyptians are likely to shut down very, very quickly. what the egyptians are worried about is there being some sort of breakout that tears down their own piece of the wall that is part of this block aid of gaza. but i think we should be significantly less concerned about what happens in gaza -- in the south with regard to egypt and much more concerned about lebanon. there was, as you remember, and i believe if i remember correctly, you covered both the

war in 2006 and was there. that was a very, very different challenge for the israel defense forces. hezbollah is essentially expeditionary force and an arm of the iranian regime. to be fighting along two fronts is a significant challenge for the idf. >> steven, just to follow up on that, what about the potential alliances and where they stand, both with israel and the west as well as hamas and some of its allies. what do you see in terms of a potential escalation on that front? it's been a few days since "the wall street journal" reported iran's involvement in helping plot the attack. i know a lot of the details are important here, but just kind of as you're assessing where things stand in terms of overall global involvement. >> well, certainly israel is enjoying unprecedented backing

from european as well as what you would expect from the white house, which is promises of recent supply of equipment and diplomatic support. major countries in europe have also indicated their political support. the question about european support and other support is how long an israeli ground operation goes on and civilian casualties. there's a pattern in which they seek to restrain israel before it can reach its goal. as nate pointed out, there's strong move to bring it to an end. that will probably give the israeli government some more room to run than they otherwise would have. as far as hamas and hezbollah and iran goes, that is, as i mentioned, the major threat. one of the reasons why president biden ordered the gerald r. ford aircraft carrier battle group into the eastern mediterranean as a form of deterrence, to warn

off hezbollah and iran from joining the conflict. >> the admiral was on our air earlier and he gave a 10% probability to strikes in the north happening, in part because of the deterring effect of the ford. do you think that makes sense? >> i do think there's significant risk. the significant risk is partly because hezbollah is not as deterrable as the state would be. if this were the state of lebanon, which is already in miserable condition economically and has been for quite a few years now, this would be a different story. hezbollah is a parochial group, the strongest power in lebanon and in some way the de facto government, but it answers not to the general lebanese population but only to its constituency and especially to iran. therefore, although you would think a deterrence would work and should work on a country like lebanon, which has been battered very badly in the past, with hezbollah it might be a

different calculation. the head of hamas, who also commands forces, has spoken about israel weakening and seeing the end of israel. this is the kind of rhetoric you hear from iran as well. the end of the regime is eminent. i would like to back that up with words. the threat from the israeli perspective is that hezbollah might be tempted to join in if israel enters in massive force into the gaza strip. i'll just reiterate what i said before. many of these calculations, they're very severe. they're ones the israeli government, which might be changing slightly in the next few days, will be facing. but israel is in a very different place than it was. you think of the united states, 9/10/2001, you never would imagine the united states going to war in afghanistan but 9/12, it would happen sooner than later. right now israel will do something major in the gaza strip. it will be hellish for people in

gaza. it's already very bad, of course. how far it is, whether they actually bring down hamas or stop short of that, depends. depends on the hostages, depends on their calculations but it will be major and extremely costly. >> gentlemen, that's a good gut check on where we are at the moment. we'll be looking at difficult pictures for a while. thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thank you. after the break, how attacks on israel and conflict in the middle east are impacting the bond market. right now you can see the ten-year currently around 4.66. yields declining throughout the morning. we'll be right back. when you think of investment risk, do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments?

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ryanair. ea they finalized it last month. that's why net orders up 214. year-to-date up 724. look at that backlog number, 5,172. as you take a look at shares of boeing and we're going back to december of 2019, why? the last time the backlog was over 5,000 planes was in december of 2019. last month boeing also delivered 27 planes. in comparison, boeing and airbus, boeing has delivered 371 planes this year. airbus, by comparison, has delivered 488 planes. guys, send it back to you. >> thank you, phil. appreciate it. turning to the bond market now, yields falling this morning as investors search for safe havens amid the conflict in israel. is the trend to stay? paul tudor jones joined "squawk box" and shared his take on the bond market and what it's indicating. >> what's happening is and why we're probably -- we're probably going to go in a recession some

time in the first quarter of next year, probably because the bond market simply through supply and demand is going to deliver more rate hikes because we don't have a clearing price yet for long-term debt. so, those rate hikes are probably going to tip us into recession. >> joining us now, kamal, thank you for being here. just curious if you agree with paul tudor jones and his asse assessment and rates and the potential to tip us into a recession? >> i would agree with paul tudor jones in terms of a recession coming. that has been my baseline for quite some time. but not because of higher yields. i disagree the yields are going to head much higher. i think before they head much higher, give it a ceiling of 5% for the ten-year, something is going to break within the

system. my top candidate is the u.s. banking system. remember, recall what happened in 2007, 2008. already bank deposits are under pressure moving over to treasury bills and money market funds. even some of the larger u.s. banks have suffered a drop in equity prices. i think all of those are going to result in what you call, quote, unquote, credit event. whether it comes more bank figures like we saw in march or whether you see it in terms of commercial real estate collapse or in terms of a credit crunch. the fed is soon going to have to shift over from inflation mitigation to what it calls saving the system. that will bring the yields down, leslie. >> i would love to follow up on that. one of the key reasons we've seen pressure on bank stocks is additional regulation,

especially for the larger banks and larger regional banks. to hold more capital in the event of any issue on that front. so, you know, in terms of an overall credit crunch, where do you see it coming from? is it the bigger, systematically capitalized banks or another regional bank situation? where do you see the issues there? >> leslie, your question is spot on. let me answer you in two parts. first of all, in terms of the higher interest rates combined with increased regulation, that is going to put more pressure on a credit crunch because banks are going to be reluctant to lend to different sectors. that is going to worsen the prospect for a recession. second your question as to where it starts from, to begin with, i would still stay with the so-called smaller banks, $100 billion deposit and in the neighborhood of that. but you will also see, i think, some of that -- in terms of an

actual figure, a sharp push downward in terms of bank equity prices. so, where will the fed have to come and rescue? i would say smaller regional banks to bring them -- to give some support. but the bigger banks are also eventually going to need some form of help from the fed, maybe in terms of quantitative easing, lower interest rates, which helps the bigger banks as well. so, bottom line to your question, start with smaller banks but the bigger banks aren't out of the woods. >> there is this budding debate about whether the fed put is gone for good. you clearly don't think it is. >> i don't think it's gone at all, carl. i think the fed put us in ever present reality for present economies. time and time again the fact they push up interest rates, then they find they push it up too much, and then the system crashes, then they come in and

ease, they cause the next cycle. that's been the history of fed policy, not stability, not steady economic growth but constantly creating more cycles. i don't think it's changed at all. >> all right. thank you for your perspective. appreciate it. >> thank you both. later this hour from bristol-myers this weekend to eli lilly last week, health care and biotech m&a appears to be picking up. who might be next and how might investors benefit? we'll talk about that. >> we're watching shares of tesla. jeffries cut its price target from $250 to $265 implying 4% downside but that stock up 3.3%. the firm saying margin erosion in the third quarter and uncertain growth in 2024 still raises questions about the company's earlier profit edge. stay with us.

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welcome back. we're watching shares of pepsi

this morning. a beat and a raise has shares in the green. up about 1.1%. but it's been a tough year for this stock. an 11% jump in pricing, thank you, inflation, helping to offset a 2.5% drop in volatile. back above the 50-day on the nasdaq 100. let's get to bob pisani. >> the tenor of the market has changed dramatically since the jobs report friday morning. we were dramatically oversold and now not so oversold. we were talking about pepsi. you heard pepsi a moment ago. coca-cola had a horrible month. it was -- my heavens, it was $60 at the start of september. went straight down. comments from walmart last week about weight loss drugs may be cutting into sales. really was a major problem. of course, you heard pepsi basically said the, that was not a problem for them. coke's been rallying. it was $51 friday morning. it's been rallying ever since then. rallying again on pepsi comments. a lot of stuff has been rallying

in the consumer space. target had a horrible month as well. take a look up here. we were straight down a month. we've been up since friday morning. up 4% today. that's a really nice move. that's an unusual move for target. it's a low beta stock. doesn't normally move 4%. elsewhere we talked about the transport stocks getting hit yesterday. they've been getting hit the whole month. alaska airline here, $25. was it last week or -- no, it's $33 yesterday morning. that was essentially 52-week low we were at in some of these stocks. it's starting to bounce today. not dramatically but bouncing a little bit. we'll have the banks that are going to be reporting on friday with jpmorgan, most of the regional banks had a terrible month. they, too, have been starting to bounce. bank of america, that was 25 last week. that was a 52-week low for bank of america. you can see 27. that stock -- that stock's up 6%, 7% since the bottom last week. the whole tenor, if you look at the s&p 500, the bottom was at

the open on friday. the headline, bad news, of course. we had job growth much stronger than expected. good news for the consumer. not good for the market. and yet we saw wage growth moderating. that was the key. it's all about getting interest rates down. yesterday the invasion of israel, not good for the markets. not good for the world in general and yet fed officials coming out talking about, perhaps, this rate hike cycle may be coming to an end or slowing down. that was the big move that turned the market around. it's all about interest rates. it's about controlling growth and inflation. the expectations in the last couple of days have at least been moving in the right directions. that's buy we're working off these dramatically oversold conditions. back to you. >> we'll talk in a bit. watch the surprise action today. coming up after the break, what the attacks on israel mean for oil and the energy markets tayel ude settling back bow

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we are continuing to watch the defense sector. some more gains this morning. but they're more muted than yesterday's session. five of the six largest u.s. defense companies added a combined $28 billion in market value yesterday as investors sought out places following the conflict in israel. you can see there's some mixed reaction today for some of the defense exposed areas markets. >> roughly 20 points away from 4400. let's get a news update with dom chu. >> good morning. u.s. citizens who say their relatives have been taken by hamas are calling on president biden and the state department to bring them home. they held a press conference this morning in tel aviv where they insisted the biden administration shares responsibility with the israeli government for every u.s. citizen whose life is at stake. >> the u.s. government has

direct responsibility to the lives of the u.s. citizens that are held hostage by these terrorists. meanwhile, the white house says the president will speak to israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu today and will deliver remarks on the war in a speech around 1:00 p.m. eastern time this afternoon. and egypt says it's trying to prevent a mass exodus into the peninsula as israeli bombardments halted crossings there today. the rafa crossing is the only exit point for gaza's 2 million residents. all other crossings at the border with the israeli border region or sea. egyptian official said on social media this morning, it is working to facilitate the arrival of humanitarian aid to the gaza strip guys, back over to you. >> dom, thank you snoor for more on the war in israel and impact on energy markets, pippa stevens is taking a closer look for us as oil prices are back in the red today. >> that's right. oil is giving back some of

yesterday's 4% gain as the market focuses on the fact that supplies have not been disrupted since neither israel or gaza is a major producer. one area where we are seeing more of an impact is european natural gas up 13% today and more than 25% in the last two sessions. israel's ministry of energy ordered chevron to halt production at its tamar facility in mediterranean off the coast of israel, which represents 3% of chevron's total gas output. in addition to supplying israel, the gas is transported from the region to egypt where it's liquefied and exported to europe. also contributing to the jump is a possible resumption of strikes at lng facilities in australia. there are a lot of unknowns looking forward, including whether or not iran was involved. but there are also key differences that make it unlikely. we'll see a price response like in the 1970s oil embargo and

shale substantially reduced its dependence on oil imports. back to you. >> appreciate that setup. our next guest doesn't see direct risks to oil markets in the conflict. however, if iran's involvement is bigger than thought, the thought is israeli retaliation could target iran's infrastructure. joining us for hyde capital and utilities team, ben salisbury. i guess it really does come down to iran's involvement and what administrations around the world are able to prove, right? >> that's right. so, there's a couple of elements that are really important to understand here when we think about the potential spill over to energy. there's not direct oil implications for israel or hezbollah -- or hamas, excuse me. the implications come when you look at, a, if there's some sort of investigation on intelligence and overturns direct involvement from iran or from important

senior iranian officials, the irgc, and then -- that's the direct path. and a less direct path having to do with spillover as you get into the potential for proxy conflict in syria and yemen and lebanon, the potential involvement of hezbollah. so, iran can get involved in a number of ways, but one of the important things to focus on is there's not a direct connection yet and israel's focus is more on the south at the moment, which clears oil supplies today. >> if we start end up talking about bad case scenarios like that, prior to the weekend, a lot of the discussion was about nop-opec supply, about venezuela, about u.s. production being our own spr. would that nearly be enough? >> iran is certainly less central to the oil global market than they had been in the past primarily because they remain under sanctions. their exports are down from

3-ish million barrels a day down to 1.5 to 2, up from half a million barrels a couple of years ago, but they're not the world's largest supplier. they are an important supplier to china. that's where this bleeds over into russia and ukraine and sort of the central role iran plays in topping up the oil markets. but it's not like you would have been, say, ten years ago if there was some sort of impairment to iran. i think the biggest issue is the market's been relatively complacent about the geopolitical risk to oil. really since the collapse of the jcpr, the iran nuclear negotiations about a year, year and a half ago, because there's a lot of risk to iran, there's a lot of risk elsewhere in the world, and we've been able to look past it. >> ben stiefel in a report this morning says the wild card here is actually how saudi arabia

responds because they say, quote, the saudis could act to stabilize energy markets and exploit the situation to its economic advantage, but do the saudis have an incentive to actually do that or is there more of a disincentive for them to get involved in this way? >> as with everything, you talk about saudi arabia, they have incentives on both sides. and their strategy for the better part of three years has been to maintain their optionality. they have one foot in china, one foot in the united states. they have one foot in oil. they've got one foot in beyond oil. so, boiling down their motivation is something simplistic, you'll make mistakes more often than not. i think the -- remember, saudi is a rival/sometimes enemy of iran. and so it is -- it is in their interest to keep iran marginalized and keep iranian oil production on the margin. if that means they backfill lost

iranian production, which both hurts iran on revenue and benefits saudi revenue, that's a place i don't think they'll hesitate to go. but we've seen as with the end of the iran nuclear deal that as iran brings more oils back to the market, saudi arabia would have a tougher time sustaining supply. >> you can't blame viewers from being confused. the complexity of the crosscurrents is incredible. we appreciate the help on this today. >> absolutely. we're continuing to watch stocks and the bond market today. you can see the s&p up more than 1%. the nasdaq, 1.2%, as those ten-year yields continue to decline today. coming up after the break, are weight loss drugs the a.i. of pharma? that is the question guggenheim is asking. one of its top health care bankers will join us at post 9.

welcome back. health care m&a activity picking up as q4 kicks off. amgen sealed the deal on $28 billion acquisition of horizon therapeutics last friday. despite the recent activity, transactions declined 18% year over year during the first half. so, is this the start of a turn around? joining us, guggenheim's head of health care investment banking. thank you for being here. i guess we'll just start there. is this the start of a turn-around? obviously regulation has been in focus. price discovery has been in focus as buyers and sellers try to agree on a certain level to do a deal. are some of those previous issues and headwinds working their way through the system now? >> yeah, i do see 2023 as a return to a steady state of m&a activity in the sector. we saw a dip in 2020 and 2021. i think we've seen a reversion this year. the fundamentals for m&a in the

sector remain really strong. there's a large number of consolidators that are constantly looking to replenish revenues and grow their revenues. so i think the fundamentals are great. and i think the one very important difference now versus ten years ago is a large consolidators think of m&a as a part of their business model rather than in addition to their business model. so, these players are seeing innovation as either that generated inside their companies or acquired from outside. as that trend is very well established, i think the m&a activity will remain constant from here on. >> you spoke about the fundamentals driving m&a at this point in time. weight loss drugs have been a buzzy topic. we actually teased this segment. i can't remember if it was earlier in this hour or last hour as being, you know, the a.i. for the biopharma industry. how are you seeing that shaping up in conversations you're having with clients? is it something you'll see more horizontal m&a in order to just get exposure to it or, you know,

vertical integration? how is an m&a playbook helpful here? >> yeah. look, the whole moment could be the watershed moment for the industry. primarily because one of the first drug classes that may be north of $40, $50 billion in revenue opportunities. and so, there's the sheer scope of this class is what differentiates it from a lot of other things we've seen. and the fact that it impacts not only people with disease, serious disease like disease, but younger population looking for some weight loss. and brings into the hold elements of wellness and quality of life. and so just the scope of this category of drugs is so wide that i think we are seeing this being slightly different from what we've seen in recent past. i think it will spur on ultimately more activity. i think the market is forming literally as we speak. i think it will soon become important and become a pattern of potential interesting areas of differentiations emerge.

you will also see a lot of the clinical stage programs that are starting to emerge in either biotechs or other pharmas to show differentiation from the two leaders we see in the market. as all of those converge, i do suspect there will be a fair amount of activity. i think fundamentally the reason this is different is it combines both treating diseases with addressing wellness, which is a very important theme. actually, one of our heads of equity has written several reports on the convergence of wellness and medicine. and i think that's an important driver here. >> there's also the conversation as to whether or not the regulatory environment has inflected in some way, or if amgen is an example of that, do you think it's going to get easier from here or harder? >> i don't really see signs of it getting easier necessarily. in some ways the fact that the deal did go through, it demonstrates that there is a path way of still getting this done. what i think it will do is it will probably -- it may change

some dance partners, but not everybody can, perhaps, acquire every company. but i don't see it as stopping m&a because the fundamental need remains really high. the other thing that is important is in deal negotiations how contracts are negotiated around things like negotiated around regulatory approvals, et cetera, are becoming a more important point, but, again, i think it will perhaps change dance partners but not a pause on activity. >> a yellow light, cautiously optimistic, one of my least favorite terms. thank you so much for being here. >> thank you for having me. coming up, a look ahead to birkenstock and the pricing of that ipo.

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amazon's second major sale event of the year kicking off today, but can it help fend off rising competition in the e-commerce space. our deirdre bosa is watching that. it's getting harder to keep track of the prime days and copycat promotions from target, walmart, others. the chinese apps do not bother. every day is deal day for shein shoppers and temu. a highly effective strategy. it shows temu's growing popularity through site visits. amazon is leagues ahead in absolute numbers, but temu has closed the gap in terms of growth. today i wanted to dive into that strategy and how it differs from the traditional american

e-commerce players and how wall street is obsessed from amazon to dollar stores to paypal. if you go to the temu site, like this right here, and open the app, you're faced with a wheel. spin it for different levels of discount. the first spin, spin again. we spun again. the second time, it's going to show $200 to spend on the app, very instant, and to some very gratifying n. this way the chinese e-commerce is gamefied. temu is luring in shoppers with a literal wheel of fortune. compared to temu, the amazon site today, as it kicks off another shopping holiday, is toned down, muted. it's the same as it was a decade ago. amazon doesn't publish prime day sales. you can bet they will try to get the temu effect and what it means for the shopping days

ahead. an analyst suggests rising anxiety over temu and shein. the disrust opt may be on the doorstep of the retail sector. morgan stanley says we estimate 15% of u.s. consumers shop on temu. it lunched just over a year ago. certainly the most pe, the smelf napalm in the morning. it alludes to another angle of the story. lawmakers are looking to limit the influence and reach through tiktok, another chinese app. temu and shein are expanding unfettered here in america. a prime example, excuse the pun, looking at amazon, target and walmart deal days. it just feels like there is no stopping them on an absolute basis, amazon still far ahead.

you can see where the anxiety has come from. >> it comes amid some antitrust concerns the government has. i wonder if the rising xes tors pla competitors plays a role or, hey, you should be regulating these guys as well as tiktok. >> we've talked them in regard to amazon's antitrust battle. one of the criticisms of regulators they're fighting yesterday's battle. so looking at the amazon ecosystem and saying it gives amazon an unfair advantage, all you need to do is look at the temu effect and see this field is more competitive than others versus the inroads amazon is making in different areas to strengthen its prime ecosystem. they help amazon's case in this

particular battle but there's a whole other one brewing, the impact of chinese e-commerce apps on the american consumer. is that the trojan horse? not tiktok. this is today. >> interesting if amazon responds with any innovations of its own. deirdre, thank you. appreciate it. wall street is buzzing about ipos with birkenstock set to price after the bell today. the company has been reportedly looking to price at the top of its $44 to $49 range according to reuters. a couple sources said the company has yet to decide pricing. it is planning to make its debut tomorrow under the ticker symbol birk. and don't miss our interview with the managing partner of the flag ship fund tomorrow right here on "squawk on the street."

he led and managed that birkenstock deal. every deal we've seen, got a venture backed company, a soft bank company. more of that traditional deal. if it goes well. >> we'll see. >> a limited sample of examples in the last month or so. we mentioned earlier the reinvention of a brand that goes back hence of years. >> you think of the head winds, the recent performance of the three deals that went public a few weeks ago. and then you have the crisis in the middle east over the weekend. i'm told they're still moving forward. >> it will be interesting tonight.

>> we'll have you on stand by. the tape today hard to argue with the trend ever since monday morning. the dow up almost 270 here. the s&p a stone's throw away from 4,400. nasdaq 100 at least, retaking the 50 day. technicians are watching all of those things. let's get to the judge and "the half." carl, thank you very much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, stabilizing stocks, dropping yields, gives the bulls a needed boost. is the market setting up for a late-year run? we'll discuss and debate with the investment committee. joining me josh brown, kari firestone, jim lebenthal, and sarat sethi. let's check the markets. a pretty good day going. we're basically at the highs of the day. the dow 270 or so. the s&p is over that level as is the nasdaq. i would offer up the most impressive thing the russell 2000 is pacing for a five-day wi