have been rising. we think we're close to the end of that. and the software business, which has been weak across the world, is picking up. they're the leader in crms, so we think the stock has more to come. >> we are green across the board, yields coming down. there's the s&p, nasdaq. i'll see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. and we do have breaking news this hour. joe biden is set to speak on the israel/hamas war, as grim details continue to emerge about the attack hamas launched saturday, and as israel prepares a ground operation into gaza. we'll have a full analysis in a moment. stocks are higher for the third day in a row. you can say it's an unusual reaction, but they are helped by

sharply lower bond yields today. there's the benchmark, ten-year, 4.63, call it 20, 30 basis points off the recent highs. oil prices also jumped yesterday in the biggest one-day gain since april. but today, down a third of a percent. we are up 4% on the week now. if this fighting deepens and widens, and that is where we begin this hour. let's go straight out to ellison barber with the latest in tel aviv as nightfall approaches there. ellison? >> reporter: hey, kelly, our team was closer to the gaza border a couple of hours ago in the israeli city that is about 2 1/2 miles from the gaza border. it is one of the cities that has just seemed to be under a constant threat of missiles and air strikes. while we were there, the sirens sounded and very quickly we heard and saw the rockets coming in and had to rush and seek shelter. we know that is happening in the

city right now as well. inside of gaza, israeli military have changed the way they are going about their assault at this point. they have shicfted to a wave of air strikes. they have a full blockade of the gaza strip. they have brought up over 300,000 reservists, to the border around gaza, working on infrastructure. seemingly preparing for a ground assault inside of gaza. they have warned palestinian civilians in the area, telling them that they should leave, but the entire area, all of gaza, is blocked. there is one crossing that is israeli military officials were saying that palestinians should use to try and evacuate, but then later the idf said they can't know at all and didn't think that that crossing was even open. so right now, inside of gaza, the u.n. has said there are close to 200,000 people who are

internally displaced. overnight, hundreds of rock etds were fished into that area. israel struck a mosque as well, they claimed they did that because hamas is using those places they say to store weapons and also operate a command center. as night falls, the question is, will we see more attacks. you see some of the noises behind us in tel aviv. it's further away, but as we have spoken with people, they talk about how they feel their life here has changed dramatically since hamas launched that assault on primarily civilians on saturday. they say they feel like there was a life they had before october 7th, and now a life they have after it. they, in save and other israelis we have spoken to, are very concerned about the number of hostages believed to be held inside of dgaza, twbetween 100

so ba-- and 150. the response that we have heard from israelis here, whether they identify as leftists or far right, they say they want to see a forceful response from israel to go in and rescue those hostages. hamas has threatened to execute a hostage every hour if communities, civilian areas inside of gaza are struck without warning. back to you. >> ellison, my understanding is it would be hard to do so because it's so dense and the areas they are targets are interwoven. is there an update on what's happening in the north along the lebanese border or the latest from hezbollah, or anything on that front? >> reporter: yeah, kelly, we have a team there. just the last hour or so, they were saying they had witnessed, they had heard rocket fire in that area in the north. for israelis, they are looking at this situation, and they're worried about kind of free

pockets. you have a situation in gaza, that is palestinian territory, occupied territory. israeli forces pulled out of that in 2005, but they have had a full blockade around it since then, so it's described by palestinians who live there as an open air prison. they don't have israeli forces inside, as you would have in the west bank, but it's surrounded and they can't leave. then you have the west bank, occupied territory where palestinians live that is controlled by the palestinian authority. then you have more to the north the golan heights, also occupied by israeli forces. and there are all different factions and spaces where israelis are worried they could all soon join this fight with hamas, and they could see rocket fire coming from the north, coming over from areas in the west bank, or there could be a militant response from that area. that has not happened to any notable extent right now. but in the north, there are reports of rocket fire coming

from there, just in the last hour from our teams and using that in the last 24 hours, as well. so that's something that the israeli community here is watching closely, because they're worried that civilians could be sundaandwiched into th threat, where you have threats coming from all angles. >> and hezbollah would have far more artillery than maybe hamas. ellison, thank you for your reporting. we'll hear from joe biden and bring that to you momentarily. for analysis, let's turn to my next guests. welcome to all of you. fred, i'll start with you. what's at stake for the president's remarks here? >> well, i think the president will act as consoler in chief. he's very good at that. he's done it in the past and also in the tragedies he's had in his only family and life. there are 11 americans that have

died. we expect that we're going to hear about more. there are a lot of calls that have gone into the white house from families that don't know where family members are. there's no word there is an american hostage yet. but he will reassure israel, which will be important. there is a lot of preplaced weaponry there being released to go to israel. here is what is going to be difficult, how do you deal with iran this there is no doubt iran is complicit in all of this. the administration is saying they don't have any sign they gave any grown lights or any planning. "the wall street journal" reported on sunday evening that there was planning, there was a green light, and that comes from hezbollah and hamas sources. part of the problem there, if you blame iran, you have to do something about it. no doubt the money comes from iran. the ability to build tunnels and

shoot long-range missiles, the technology, the intense, it all comes from iran. so this is a proxy war, no doubt about it. i don't know what he will probably say is there a warning to countries not to exploit or take advantage of the situation. we also know he's going to say something to the jewish population of the united states. you're always worried about anti-semitic outbreaks within your own country, so there will be reassuring words there, as well. this is a very important speech for the president. one last thing that is going to be difficult to touch on, but it is true that ukraine and iran are -- sorry, ukraine and israel are connected by the fact that both states sponsored terrorism, and it's using advanced weaponry and going after civilian targets. there's a lot more talk now about the global order breaking down that the u.s. established after world war ii. it will be interesting to see if

he makes any link there, as well. >> what would you add to that? >> i think it's going to be a very, very difficult challenge for the president here. on one hand, you have to show support to israel. this is an unprecedent ed clash and i think he has to provide some signals and authorize some support. but at the same time, i think the intention here for the biden administration is to look at the scale of this on a potential for regional war. prior to number one will be to prevent an escalation with iran. the main risk we see is hezbollah entering the fight, perhaps some attacks from the golan heights that put a lot more pressure on israel. as far as normalization between saudi arabia and israel, the trilateral u.s. security, saudis and israel, that's off the table right now. i don't see how they can progress on that. >> did the u.s. somehow invite,

you know, this conflict in the sense of emboldening iran with some of the deals we have made with hostage releases and obviously oil is the key part, we'll ask john about that in a moment. but talk us you there the geopolitics here. >> i think the iranians have been supportive of hamas, hezbollah. hamas is not your traditional group. it's under the command of iran, so they have done this partially on their own accord. it's important to remember the gaza strip has 2 million palestinians that, i think, partly this is a reaction to that. hamas controls the gaza strip, and the palestinian people don't have much of a say so. at the same time, you have to take into consideration that hamas wanted to escalate, to try to create a crisis over here. probably on its own accord. they have decided to do that. i don't know if there is direct evidence that the iranians were

deeply involved in this operation, but certainly they have provided a lot of support over the years, training, arms, and financing. >> let me ask the question this way, why now do you think? and "the wall street journal" was reporting months ago in april that there might be preparations for something like this under the way. what is the opportunity you think that they have seized? >> i think for a while, the u.s. has been sending mixed signals about its presence in the middle east and north africa region, and its relationship really with saudi arabia and the rest of the world. the iranians felt an opportunity to assert them seselves to an extent. but hamas has agency to a certain extend. >> john, let me bring you in for the oil aspect here. it's not as if we have seen oil spiking above $100 a barrel for that. the u.s. is desperate for more can you plies to keep the price

from going too much higher. how does this complicate those efforts? >> it's concerning. that obviously too the extent this escalates or the israelis do conclude that iran proper was behind all this, or helped orchestrate it, iranian assets of some kind, either marine transit, or even in country, are going to come under some kind of retribution from the israelis. i would highlight that you already heard khomeini from iran deny any involvement there. that is because it's the classic playbook for iran, this that they embolden the revolutionary guard to do these things. a wink and nod gets put to them and they go off and do it. this way there's deniability from the government proper in iran for these activities. so certainly the irgc had a role in this, if you were to ask me. and that will link back.

but these atrocities are beyond the pale here. we are learning that scores of babies were killed. i can't see israel not really flexing on this and bringing retribution that is going to put barrels of oil one way or the other this the cross hairs. >> a lot of the iranian oil has been going to china already. and there's been sanctions, even today it sounds like the u.s. -- i don't know what the latest is, but all of the places that are trying to get more oil, it's iran, it's venezuela. oil prices may see some downward pressure here because these fragile countries will bring more barrels online. is that out the window now? just as we see gasoline prices falling and some relief for consumers, do you think this puts upward pressure into next

year or no? >> i don't think so. this might allow this to -- look, iranian oil production and exports are at multiyear highs. the chinese are going to be pushing back, to the extent we want their help in calming this situation, we will say we want the oil supply lines to be maintained. they will be chastising and warning iran not to make trouble in the strait of hormuz or do other activities to disrupt the oil supply and put the final dagger into china's economy, as teetering as it is already here. >> and fred, the ammunition shortages that already exist will be worsened by the fact that the israel wants the u.s. to supply with ammo and we can't even supply ukraine. because of this multifaceted international conflict, it results in the u.s. having to make some tough choices, not least where to send aid and without a speaker of the house right now.

>> i think that's right. what particularly patriot missiles for air defense, and in the ukraine situation, you have to point to a lot of the criticism of the biden administration that it's been too slow and incremental in giving ukraine what it needed when it needed, and showing lack of resolve there, certainly the biden administration has done a lot. ukraine wouldn't be where it is without the help of the united states. but everything is interlinked. if you look in ukraine, iran is providing the drones to the russians in order to attack the ukrainians. if you look at hamas, hamas needs that -- the iranians, as well. and china's support in ukraine, you have to watch what china is saying about hamas. so this is all linked together and the white house is starting to look at things in a more interlinked way. why now?

i think you can't separate this from how close we were to a normalization agreement between saudi and israel. >> yeah. >> this is the mecmecca, the ho mosques were going to make a normalization deal with the jewish state. it was going to be one of the greatest break throughs. this is totally off the table right now, although the saudis would still like to come back to it at some point because of the defense agreement they would have reached with the united states through this, which they now look at and need more than ever, looking at the iranian threat to israel. and you can't help but think a lot of the time with this would have thrown off a real regional alignment. i was supposed to be in israel this week working on that, and br bringing together benjamin netanyahu and members of the arab states to work on this.

this is now going to be very hard to advance. so there's just a lot at stake. >> i'm glad you brought that up. as they were seeking sort of to move in this direction, saudi and israel normalizing relations, one thing that stood out is saudi wasn't more forceful for the palestinian cause or certain aspects of that situation. so there was perhaps perceived by hamas or whomever as to the what they were looking for from their former staunchest reigionl allies. >> certainly president benjamin netanyahu was being pressured by the prince to reach an agreement. but that's way off the table now, and it will be hard for either one of them to find their way back.

so i don't think you can separate this and also if this does play into iranian interests, even if we can't see iranian fingerprints on the actions so far. >> that saudi/israeli accord to still happen, over the weekend, they said it's too early to tell. they didn't say no, it's out the window, which is interesting. >> i think the saudis are going to try to reinvent what their deal would look like, bringing in the palestinian issue after the war in gaza in some way, shape, or form. difficult to talk about peace at this time, because israel is focused on the terms. the saudi also care about public opinion and all of the arab states will have to take care of that vulnerability. the crown prince of saudi arabia wants more integration. the u.s. security element of

this, i think the process that we see today is going to remind the saudis that you need hard guarantees, rather than soft ones from the u.s. under any arrangement. >> gentleman, we'll take a quick break and come back to hear from the president. coming up, we'll look at global oil supplies and whether an upward spike could threaten a rerun of the 197 0s. and and we have a look at gdp estimates. as we go to break, here is a look at your markets, green across the board. all sectors are positive. the dow up almost 200 points. the ten-year-year-old retracing back to 4.64. back after this.

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running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back. just had a three-year bond note go up for auction. rick santelli is here with the results. good afternoon. how is it looking? >> you know, it was a messy auction, all things considered. and it should be not surprising to anyone that that would be the case. it tailed because the market kept moving. yields moving down, of course, which means that price was

moving up. so many investors were sort of chasing the auction. but what i find most interesting today is the fact that if you look at a short maturity like a two-year note, we continue to see that the bulk of the activity that used to go into more short maturities were down about 13 basis points in a two-year. if you open it up, you can see we have definitely scaled down on these yields, especially after the big spikes from friday. but as you look further down the curve, the numbers actually get bigger, meaning we're seeing more buying, pushing yields down in more of a dramatic way, which is something different than history dictates. one of the reasons is, because we have seen so much of a big move to the upside yields on the longer maturities. i think that investors are getting a bit braver that there will be a little bit more activity out on the curve. i want to stress, whether it was yesterday, obviously with cash markets closed for columbus day

or today, the markets are having a problem with the jump in, jump out mentality in the marketplace. suffice it to say, yields are moving down for obvious reasons now on the geopolitical front, but this makes everything harder, depending on how long the action in the middle east goes, how much influence is exerted in the fixed income space, which is going to make monitoring what the fed and the way debt and spending are affecting interest rates. it will be that much harder to scrutinize and label accurately. >> very well said, rick. can you put the dollar in context, as well? we were at 1.07. it was a high since maybe november. where are we now and how could that complicate things? >> if you look at a dollar chart for the last couple of weeks, and i'm sure we have that loaded in, we have been scaling down almost every session for the last four or five. and you're right, this was coming from a very softy 1.07

that we had last week. that really underscores another difference. the gold market is acting somewhat normal. it's a bit higher. but yes, the dollar index is not experiencing the normal flight to quality that it once did. and i'm not exactly sure where fx has gotten so much more complicated. but i really do think that considering all the issues prior to the geopolitical concerns we are now experiencing, that foreign exchange has gotten a bit more tricky, considering the debt situation in the u.s. >> that's very strange. i appreciate you pointing that out. rick, thank you. bonds are pulling back in that classic safety trade today, so some parts are still working. does that mean the highs in yields are behind us? my next guest says 10% on the four-year is next. let's bring in eric nelson from

wells fargo and sam stovall. eric, bonds are all the action these days. do you think what's happened in the middle east is a catalyst for the rally you have been expecting? not so much, kelly. it certainly has been something of a contributor. i think part of it is you just have had an extreme move here, 100 basis points in a very short space of time. obviously, we did have some relatively good jobs growth numbers last friday. we do like to say that markets do tend to uptrend and peak on good news. so perhap threrhaps there is a realization we couldn't sell off much more in the treasuries. the fed has been a little more cautious with regards to further hikes, so all of that has contributed to some pullback in yields here. >> when we say it looks like you are expecting 4% to be the next

level or where we are headed by next year, is that because you're bearish on the economy or -- what's implied there for gdp? >> that's a huge part of it, kelly. we are looking for a u.s. recession. i realize it hasn't happened yet, but the key here it will be a grind for the next one to two months. that next big 50 to 75 basis point move is going to take a recession, and right now, where u.s. jobs numbers are printing, we are not at the level where we will see a big rally here. we'll have to wait for that. >> i heard the "r" word, sam. you're saying everybody, while the macro recession may be upon us, the earnings recession may be about to end. is that right? >> that's right, kelly. right now, expectations are for 1.2% year on year dexwcline for the s&p 500. but in 54 of the last 56

quarters, actual results have exceeded end of quarter estimates. so this could be the start of a new earnings recovery. >> so when you see the start of an earnings recovery, that could be one factor underpinning the s&p. so what is priced in right now, and where does that leave us on valuation and where do you see earnings headed? >> i see earnings headed up by 8% in the fourth quarter, with each quarter being successtively higher. we are looking at the pe, trading at about a 10% premium to its average, going back to 2000. typically in the early phase of a bull market, you do tend to see pe multiple expansion because prices lead fundamentals, and investors are diving back into stocks in anticipation of earnings to follow suit. >> yeah, and to some, this will look like maybe an early part of

recovery. some of us are worried we are just picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer. so sam, what has been going on with corporate revenues, where we understand nominal gdp in the economy ain't growing the way it once was. >> no. revenues are expected to be up in 2024. simply, not by much, and depending on what kind of a penny it is, if it's a 1909, i would take that chance. >> sure, if it's worth $10 million today. and finally, sam, are there any one-off factors helping to boost earnings? >> you couldn't necessarily say there's a one-off. we have had head winds in terms of oil prices, the value of the dollar, worries about china and now add to this the middle east.

but certainly, should we end up seeing many of these head winds start to disksdissipate, that w make people feel better about the future. and the major center banks are expected to show a 3% gain versus a 36% loss for the regionals. if the quality, the loan quality remains elevates, that could allow investors to breathe a sigh of relief. >> the fed governor is speaking right now as investors wonder if a fed pivot is at hand, and how the war in israel will impact the numb ergs. steve leaseman has the details. >> governor chris waller saying the fed has taken forceful action saying we will stay on the job to achieve our objective of 2% inflation. not hinting whether he believes another rate hike is needed to achieve that objective.

for that, we have to go to the atlanta fed president who repeated that rates are sufficiently restrictive, but said the fed does not need to increase any more, because there are still impacts to come in part from rate hikes already in train, but adding there's still a long way to go to get inflation to target, suggesting he favors keeping rates higher for longer. he said he expected an economic slowdown, and that is expected in the cnbc data after a strong third quarter. this is an average of 13 tracking forecasts this month. 3.8% annualized growth in the third quarter. a number that had been forecast to just 0.3% before the quarter started. a resilient consumer and strong business sentiment pro-felled that forward. but then economists have

depicted slowdown in the second half. forecasters have revised up the current quarter, and the war in israel raises additional uncertainly, but not seen at this moment as a major economic event for the u.s. of course, one of immense human tragedy. >> in the same way mccarthy didn't rule out for running for speaker, is waller leaving open the possibility for the markets to say el, maybe he's backing off and we can run with the bothic idea? >> that's a great point you're making, kelly. waller is giving a speech about an economist and his work in regards to monetary policy. he mentioned just two things

about monetary policy that i highlighted from that speech. if that sort of thing turns you on, of course. waller, and i think there's two folks out there, two kinds of folks. there are very few who are saying we don't need another hike or sugging we do. another group that says, you know, we need another hike. and i guess there's a thgroup leaving the door open in the middle. >> gentlemen, before i let you go, what do you think the bond market is going to read or not read and what we have heard from fed officials so far? >> you look at the 100 basis points on if ten-year yields. it's not been accompanied by an increase in expectations from fed hikes. so i do think the fed is going to continue to expect no hikes.

i think you need at least another month or two with strong jobs growth. we are expecting no more hikes from the fed. i think the fronld end with be a little more stable until we see that growth slowdown in tus. >> eric nelson and sam stovall, thank you very much for your time. coming up, circubirken stoc set to price after the bell. and as we head to break, take a look at the dow, with boeing, coke and amex leading the way. some weakness in tech with ibm, sales force, microsoft, all declines, and travelers the worst performer. back after this.

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welcome back. you can see the markets are still positive across the board behind me. the dow up by half aer i erperc. all 11 sectors are in the green, with consumer discretionary on top, up about 2%. that sector is helped by travel and entertainment names outperforming. ceasar's, carnival, hilton, all among them. and retail stocks are rebounding today. target and dollar tree having their best days in nearly a year. dollar tree off its 2018 lows, up 4%. and target -- i'm sorry, pepsi coming off its lowest level in over a year, after beating estimates and the cfo told cnbc

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welcome back. birkenstock's ipo is set to price tonight. let's get to leslie pick we are the details. it's always about pricing. who else is in the pipeline and maybe stripe is, but do bring us up to speed. >> at the top end of the range, however, we have spoken with some sources who said they were still wavering on where to price. those final decisions are expected after the bell tonight, with a debut right here on the new york stock exchange tomorrow. at the high end of the range, birkenstock would be valued at $9.2 billion on a non-diluted basis. birkenstock intends to raise $1.6 billion. three corner stone investors have shown interest of offering $600 with the ipo price. the road show almost thwarted by

a government shutdown, remember that? and then the weekend's terrorist attacks in israel add another layer of uncertainty. but birkenstock is still forging ahead. the country traces its roots back 250 years, and only two years ago was acquired by l. cat caterton, the billionaire founder of lbnh. that pipeline continues to grow, so this is going to be an important one to watch tomorrow. >> oh, yes. and we are focused on that in particular. leslie, thank you very much. we have an early earnings read next. before we get do that, check out shares of truist, popping on news they are talking about

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welcome back, everybody. with a quick scan on the markets, the dow is not only up 186, but the vix is lower today, as well. so down by about half a point. a lot of interesting cross currents where it's not the flight to safety trade you might expect. the dollar and vix is lower. trading just under 17 and bond yields are lower, as well. the israel/hamas war is putting pressure on republicans to act quickly to elect a new house speaker. will it happen with steve scalise or jim jordan? there's talk that ousted kevin mccarthy will run again. joining me now is my guest, a

cnbc contributor and author of "the conservative future, how to create the sci-fi world we were promised." jim, appreciate you joining us. >> thank you for having me on. >> so where do we begin? it doesn't sound like scalise or jordan has the votes right now. >> clearly, this being a multivote affair, this is a fairly significant -- i'm not sure the kevin mccarthy effort is about really putting in -- returning kevin mccarthy to the speaker's role or just making things very difficult for jordan and scalise. listen, at this point, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that the next speaker is kevin mccarthy. do i think that's likely? probably not. but there's probably going to be multiple rounds where there's going to be a lot of unexpected things happening. that could be one of them. >> do you think if the israeli war happened a week sooner they

still would have ousted him? >> i'm not sure who would want the job. i think having a certain level of continuity -- listen, the people who really did not want him in that job did not want him in that job. and i think these kinds of appeals to what would be good government or the greater national interest, i'm not sure any of those would have cut any ice with that group. >> i wonder if it worsens some of the problems. now the prospect of sending aid to israel, munitions, whatever it is comes on top of the fact that supplies to ukraine are running out. but it's probably pretty bipartisan the support for israel going forward. this is just one of the issues the party is very split over in general. >> listen, there are a lot of things that need to get done. you mentioned aid to ukraine. just making sure the government can keep on running. that's up in the air. there's a variety of other bills, and this is another thing -- you would hope at least

that both sides can come together, we can get a new speaker, and we can get the aid that israel needs. >> that said, it looks more likely than not we could be headed for a shutdown. this is the week they were supposed to pick the new speaker. if it's next week, that only leaves 20 something days until november 17th, right? >> yeah. it's not going to surprise me that given this level of dysfunction that we will get a shutdown and perhaps an extended shutdown. no one should think that we are entering a new era of togetherness in the house, because kevin mccarthy is gone. in fact, there will be a continued level of dysfunction for the time being. >> i think the average voter now senses, jim, i might be wrong, that the world has more conflicts breaking out than it did previously. what are the political ramifications of that, if any? >> it's a dangerous world. you have russia's invasion of

ukraine, you have this massacre in israel, and one could easily paint scenarios where hezbollah gets involved, the u.s. gets involved. there could be terrorist attacks in the united states. you have what's going on with china. you know, will they invade taiwan? >> look at africa, by the or m spill over there, but that's the worst that's continent has looked in a decade or so. >> so we have some of republicans in the house worried about spending and so forth. if you anticipate the united states getting its debt problem under control through sharply lowered defense spending, that just seems really unlikely. >> absolutely. >> the cbo has predicted a slow decline. to me a gradual stability or set in defense spending might be more likely. but i would hope that the seriousness of our global situation would create a new level of seriousness in our

government. where we would look at leaders, you know, for the serious policy proposals not because they want to be on television or just -- or create a kind of media personality or become influencers like young youtubers. if america ever needed serious leaders trying to honestly grapple with the problems facing this country, this would be one of those times. >> but the question is a difficult one. given the conflicts you described, should the u.s. be the army for the world or recognize that that's nearly an impossible and perhaps a bottomless pit kind of task? i'm curious whether you think this emboldens the more moderate republican wing or the one that argues that we can't solve everyone's problem you have to take care of people in your own neighborhood? >> you have people on the left who seem very concerned about ukraine. you have people on the right, and certainly this had isn't,

you know, definitional, there's people on both sides about israel. but i think if there's one easy lesson to draw, when the u.s. is perceived, you know, rightly or wrongly, as distracted or uncommitted, or weaker, or has less influence in the world or is not willing to exert the influence it does have, the world becomes a more chaotic place. that is a lesson over and over and over again. if the people on the fringes think they will have a more peaceful world, a more prosperous world with the u.s. withdrawn and raising its drawbridge, i'm not sure there's a lot of evidence from current events that's true. >> i think the question is in what way does the chaos spill back into this country if it hasn't already, and hopefully we don't get an answer to that. jim thanks very much.

author of "the conservative futurist". in> lvmh finishing up the ea earngs call. where management is seeing pockets of weakness in the luxury space next.

welcome back. we have an earnings alert in the luxury sector. lvnh, robert frank has the numbers. a little bit shy? >> a little bit. lvnh is the luxury bellwether. they were focused on china, instead it turns out the problems are in europe and the u.s. sales grew about 9%, well below the 11 plus percent expected. wines and spirits were the z loser down 14%. fashion and leather goods up 9%. but still off the 21% growth we saw in the second quarter and 20% average we saw in the first half. the company's cfo saying that lvmh is seeing a, quote, notable change in europe as consumers there pull back on luxury.

the u.s. was also down about 1% overall. mainly that was due to weakness in ckoniak and watches and jewelly and they cited tiffany's as a source of weakness. china doing okay, saying no major change in the business we do with our chinese clientele. that was perhaps an upside for analysts. the problem is there was little or no guidance for next year. fourth quarter the most important for luxury cuompanies. saying they have marketing campaigns and big events planned. we'll see if that's reflected on margin. they report sales or revenues in the these quarters until the end of the year when we get true earnings. >> you don't think tiffany fire had anything to do with the weakness there? >> no.

broadly speaking it's the aspirational consumer getting hit hard in luxury. for their efforts to move upscale, tiffany's sells entry level silver stuff and that's part of the area that's weaker. the higher end jewelry they own is doing better. >> all those peons with their silver jewelry. >> exactly. that does it for the exchange. next on "power lunch," president biden just tweeted that he and vice president harris had a discussion with israeli prime at wnyu benjamin netaah th'shy his speech set for 1:00 p.m. has been delayed. we'll bring it live when it happens next hour on "power happens next hour on "power lunch. absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring

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. welcome to "power lunch" everybody. i'm tyler mathisen alongside kelly evans. good amp, busy day at hand