proof also that time is gone forever. ♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede in london. joumanna is live from the world bank meetings in marrakech. we will have arjun joining uses as well. here are your headlines. it's game on. the anti-trust watchdog green lights the $69 billion takeover with the cma saying the revised deal addresses the competition concerns.

european equities stumble off the back of disappointing inflation data out of the u.s. and china, but the ecb council member kazaks throws his weight behind a pause saying inflation is at a manageable level. >> of course, we go from meeting to meeting and forecast to forecast taking a look at what happens in the economy. hamas rejects warnings for civilians to leave gaza city and head south ahead of what israel describes as significant military operations in the coming days. and earnings season kicks off on wall street with numbers out of jpmorgan chase and citibank and wells fargo on the deck before the start of trade stateside.

the uk market regulator has given microsoft the green light to complete the $69 billion acquisition of activision blizzard after a series of concessions for the takeover deal. including activision selling the cloud gaming rights to ubisoft. the deal will prevent microsoft from locking up competition in cloud gaming and preserving competitive pricing and services. brad smith took to x, the social media network formerly known as twitter, saying the final hurdle has finally been crossed nearly two years after it was announced. arjun, you have been tracking this one and we have been tracking this one. two years in the making. finally, it is off the ground. >> it finally made it. the uk was the last regulator holding up this deal. this is effectively cleared the

path of this to be passed and this deal to close. now setting the context here. when the investigation by the cma was initially opened, the concerns specifically revolved around cloud gaming. the idea in the future we will be streaming games as you stream a film from something like net n netflix for example. you could play on the mobile or pc or buy a controller and play on the tv. the cma's concern was this deal would give microsoft the controlling hand in the cloud gaming market before the market has taken off. they initially rejected a deal in which microsoft offered some concession. then the cma invited microsoft back after other regulators cleared the deal to renegotiate and offer a restructured deal.

as part of the deal, microsoft would transfer cloud streaming rights for activision-blizzard to ubisoft and they would be able to commercialize the games out in non-windows space. laying the fears around what the cma had which was microsoft would take "call of duty" and keep them exclusive to microsoft. the cma said the restructuring deal means microsoft won't have a stranglehold on the market. that is how we got here and how the cma is satisfied. >> i wonder if it speaks to the broader issue with the regulator. the cma agreed to the deal. does this mean the cma would not

just be the ones in the rights saying it needed to ensure this was competitive on a broader landscape or was this just the case of holding back in trying to hold up and ensure they got the best out of the deal for consumers overall as well? i suppose from that perspective there is one concern there. now with it finally happening, how soon do we see it actually being completed and microsoft now saying here is the money and let's take it and run? >> the deal needs to be wrapped up with the deadline of october 18th, which is next week. they will wrap this up next week. the lawyers will cross the ts and dotting the is next weekend. in terms of the cma, it is a journey for the regulator. one of the concerns with the cma is it hasn't cut enough teeth. after brexit, now the uk has its

own regulatory review back in its hands, the cma is trying to show it has some teeth. i think that it is what was trying to do with this deal. the reason it did not accept the fr initial proposals from microsoft than what was here is the cma argued this to allow microsoft to set the terms and conditions in the gaming market for the next ten years. they don't believe based on past form that microsoft would uphold the end of the bargain. that was the issue. >> they believed it. what was the uk's cma seeing that other regulators weren't and more worried about? what historical data were they looking at as well? i suppose those are the key questions, i think, we had or i had in mind at the very least. >> i think the context is important. the cma is trying to show hard it has teeth and there are a

number of other mergers and competition concerns. it is also now investigating those as well. off the communications regulator referred the cloud computing market to the cma for investigation. they have to look into companies like google and amazon and others. i think for the cma, this deal was showing that a lot is changing in technology with the growth of cloud computing and a.i. and the new gaming systems and platforms and business models. it wants to show it is forward thinking and ready to take on these big cases. i think that is what these cases are about versus the other regulators. >> hopefully this means there will be a few changes in the sector. we welill be looking out for google and amazon and see if the cma will get their teeth.

arjun, i appreciate it. covering that across today and the story as it continues to break. let's check the market picture and see how things are moving. we started off in the red for all of the counters. now we've shifted through to positivity. the asian trading session turn negative for most part following on from the chinese inflation data which was less than anticipated. trade numbers showing negativity. defl deflationary aspects and not able to grow is the chinese economy which does mean you are getting a sense of negativity coming there. that filtering through with the c cpi print in the u.s. oil and gas hand s been an interesting sector. the war in israel and hamas has been the focus area there. oil as gas companies have been

ones to look out for to see how things are looking for them. basic resources following on from the chinese story we have been speaking about with the data points. speaking of data, we had data points. spanish inflation accelerated to 3.5% in september. that is up from 2.6% in the month of august. french inflation was revised slightly higher coming in at 5.7% for the month. speaking to my colleagues joumanna and sylvia on the sidelines of the imf world bank annual meetings in marrakech, the bank president says he now expects rates to be kept higher. >> of course, we go from meeting to meeting and forecast to forecast and taking a look at what happens in the economy and as i said if the interest rate,

which is our main tool and that tool has been used most of the way of the last year, i would say the next phase now is high for longer. >> now the fight against inflation has been front and center at the imf world bank meetings in marrakech. joumanna is here with a special guest. joumanna, definitely not work completed yet, but some of the hard part is done for now. >> for sure. when you think about it in the context of inflation. here at the annual meetings, we are having discussions about so many things going on. very happy to say that eric nielson joins me. you are adviser to unicredit. i have had lots of conversations over the last week with many people on the inside of imf

policymakers and central governor governors. it is good to have the context here. i have to say personally as we look at 3% growth which is more resilient than the imf thought a couple of years ago. you talk about the conflict right now in the middle east. horrendous. you talk about the ukraine war and so many countries are sitting at high debt. there is not a lot of room for optimism. >> it is a very he downbeat note here. i think it should be more downbeat than it is in the initial sector. the elephant in the room is the bond market. that doesn't really fully appreciate the shock that the private sector is coming through now. it is 3% growth next year. that is not a lot. it is half of what it used to

be. we are facing challenges. i'm worried. >> talk about the bond market specifically. you are a great student of financial markets. how scary is this in history? i remember the bank of america chart saying in the context of how high yields can go and where we are right now is not that egregious. why should we be worried? >> i think my concern is the following. we have monetary tightening which is unprecedented in size and speed. it didn't really hit the private sector yet. over the last two months or so, three months, we now have the credit markets picking up. the imf says maybe they will change their minds today. they say good. now financial conditions are tightening as the monetary policy wanted to do, but interest rates are 6% or whatever you are and no growth. 2.5% of global growth is

recession. we are just above it. if you are having the slowdown in the u.s. and europe with the little growth and at these levels, this raises the financial stability question. >> that has come up in my con vargs -- conversations with the central bankers. the economy is close to recession as well. i asked the governor how concerned he is and he said it is not a concern. our focus is very much focused on bringing inflation back to target. it always raises the question of what do they need to see in order for them to stop with the monetary tightening. we know it works on a lag. if they wait until 2%, it is too late. >> absolutely. we have been caught maybe because too late or when

inflation hit, i don't think they were, but most people think they were. they feel the reputation was at risk. now we have shifted from doing months of policy with the view on the forecast, it is more like the present numbers. you get comments from central bankers on the high yields based on the monthly data when it comes out. that doesn't feel good. when it is sitting too high, although everybody think it is is coming down to some level or speed, then i fear the shock to the economy has to be veryreact. >> the flip side of theequation is the playbook is in an environment where economic growth is slowing, you resort back to fiscal fire power. there is not a lot of fiscal fire power left since the

pandemic and, number, two, the message is continue with the consolidation. the review of the fiscal budget which would entail further tightening of policy is counter cyclical. >> that is a polite way of put p putting it. if i said to you the imf forecast growth in the world of 3% and overall is 2.5%, then you would say that is not a lot. the policy is tighter fiscal and tighter for longer. you see structure reform. we all want reform, but who estimated what it does? for me, this is a very, very strange and uncomfortable situation. it seems to me that they are using the old playbook and it is probably too high and there are issues.

put it all together. i'm worried about it. >> put it in context. you have been a student of the market for a long time. >> since the '50s. including the -- >> i was a toddler. >> in the spring meeting. >> you know, put it in context. how worrisome is this period in history? started in the negative spin. you know, you've been not maymayking me feel otherwise. >> the combination of high yields and the work is dangerous for emerging markets and in particular the weaker ones. i would be sure there is stock trading out there with china in the room which is a compli complication. >> we had a panel on that yesterday. >> this is a big issue. the second one is the risk, of

course, is the high yields and there is something in the financial sector. i think it is fair to say that all of the stress tests of the major banks in europe and america are robust enough. what about the markets? if you are shocking the financial sector to this extent and get no growth and negative growth potenpotentially? in history, we always had financial stress. >> i'll leave it there, erik. thank you for joining me. guys, of course, our coverage is continuing. pleasure to speak to erik nielson. if you haven't signed up to the weekly sunday wrap, i highlight you do so. coming up on the show as well, we will hear from the european commissioner for trade which is valdis dombrovskis.

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in this case, since our independence, we stay in aligned countries and we will continue. we call it the human rights and justice for all. these are all very important for us. democracy. within the context of trade, we will improve and strengthen our own economic structure. >> we see increasing when there should be reducing. the global economy around the world and this is particularly bad news for people in developing countries who deserve the ability to increase the standards on the back of the participation in the global market. >> those were some of the voices

we have been hearing from over the course of this week on the sidelines of the annual meetings in marrakech. all talking about the inflation and interest rates and health of the global economy. >> it is now time to hear from april da different voice. we have valdis dombrovskis. good to see you in marrakech. i would like to clarify the reports that are out there suggesting that the eu could impose tariffs on china. >> first of all, we are currently in brussels with the discussions with the u.s. and one element is how to address global capacity. the situation on how we are going to do this.

in this case, this is the eu and u.s. protecting our steel markets and we are doing it through our safeguards with u.s. having other means of doing this. the issue of global capacity is there. we are seeking to address it in a coordinated way. >> i would like to ask more broadly about the topics that are discussed here this week and one of them is geo economic fragmentation. i would like to ask why the eu is looking to take this approach with china at this stage when there is a real concern about what fragmentation will mean for the global economy. >> indeed. as far as the eu is concerned, we are working to prevent this fragmentation and maintain multilateral rules based order, including in the area of trade because we believe in this day,

everyone is better off in the world with the rules. >> why is the european commission launching an anti-subsidy investigation into chinese electric vehicles? >> as regards in the investigation, there are two elements which are important. one is the presence of subsidies which are distorting the playing field and the presence of helps subsidies -- these subsidies in china. and also seeing very rapid development of chinese brands with electric vehicles market share in the eu which increased from less than 1% to 8% in two or three years time. there is the risk of injury. when i was meeting my chinese

counterparts, i reassured it would be a rules-based process and facts-based process in line with the eu rules and standards. these procedures exist within the wto framework and how to deal with trade developments. >> at the same time, the language out of beijing suggests they are unhappy with the european commission. they warned of the retaliation. china is an important export market for the eu. how do you tread that path between wanting to protect some of the national industries in germany which is a focus here versus keeping the trading relationships alive with china? >> indeed, china is the second biggest trading partner. it is important we continue to engage and seek beneficial solutions. also, it must be noted that our

trade relationships is imbalance. we are seeking to address the imbalance. that is why we are focusing on market access in china because eu market is more open for chinese goods and companies and chinese market is for the eu companies. >> given the fragmentation, vice president, given the uncertainty in the united states, the challenges i could go on and on. there are several. are you on track to lower your expectations for the eurozone? >> our current economic forecast is 0.8% growth this year and 1.4% growth next year. >> what are the new numbers in november? >> yes, next month we are

looking forward to that, but the last update was last month in september. all in all, it's clear that maybe a year ago, we were worrying about recession and this coordinated eu approach means we have the next generation eu and having the facility in full implementation which is helping to support the eu economy. despite the disruption despite the disruption of russia against ukraine. >> the growth is 1.2%. these aren't great numbers historically. we avoided recession, but we are far away from pre-pandemic trend. the imf report flags longer term productivity and competitive challenges within the eu. i want to close the conversation

asking about the relationship with china. what about the eu relationship with the u.s.? i have spoken to many companies. a lot of european-based companies say they find the appeal of the inflation reduction act very inenticing t business in america. is europe falling behind? >> first of all, those are not very strong growth rates. the fact it comes in a situation where we are facing crisis after crisis with covid-19 pandemic and just as eu was emerging from covid-19 pandemic, russia started its aggression against ukraine creating a new economic problem. we had to deal with a context which was especially challenging for the eu. this is a war on our door step. nevertheless, we managed to avoid recession and see a mild

rebound in the economy next year. we also need to look at broader productivity and competitiveness issues. that would be more of a focus of eu policy in the coming months and years because some parts are clear and it is not new like productivity growth. eu is lagging behind u.s., china and other major economies for decades. it is something we need to address and from that point of view, the inflation reduction act is a wake-up the call and we are looking at the policy response. >> i would like toclarify from the technical point of view with the i.r.a. i know you were benefitting from that. you were trying to find common ground there because the eu doesn't have a trade agreement with the u.s. any updates on that? >> well, as you know, we had found some agreements and

understandings in the area of electric vehicles. right now, we are working on critical minerals agreement which would allow eu to equal treatment trade partners with the u.s. with regards of the critical minerals. we hope to reach that agreement also in a reasonably short time frame. >> it sounds like a tricky appr time for us. thank you for speaking to us. valdis dombrovskis from the eu trade commission. china was in marrakech here yesterday. i hosted a panel with the world bank forum president and minister of finance for saudi arabia. the panelists took a mixed view on the china overseas activity.

let's listen in. >> over a period of time, whine i -- china increased it's presence, especially in africa. some of the financing was good and some of the financing was o overextended. what we are seeing today is china withdrawing the source of financing and that, to a certain degree, puts more pressure on saudi arabia and others to step forward. >> instead of actually saying that about china, we should say they did what they needed to do and they are taking a risk. a very high risk which they are collecting on that risk. we should work with them. we should show them love and work with them and try to make the common framework work instead of antagonizing them and

damaging the countries who need their help. we should show as much love as they can for low-income countries who need solutions. >> apparently keen viewers of the channel might have spotted christine lagarde behind us. she is wearing a striking purple jacket. a representative of how many people are here at the annual meetings. it is a gathering of minds and an opportunity as we discussed to take stake of the world economy and think of the challenges and come up with the multilateral solutions and also with one of the major things dominating this week before we started was the concept of the geopolitical fragmentation and the issues happening this week in the middle east being on top of mind. it is interesting that the latvian governor was saying he

has been speaking more about geopolitics than macro this time around. >> it has been the theme of the week. i feel like it is adding further layers of complexity to the global economy. i had a chance to review a panel this week with employees of the imf and economists. it was very interesting because they suggested, joumanna, that in six months time, you are likely to report on the imf lowering the growth expectation for the global economy. >> it seems to be the case. i was speaking to erik nielson now and he is pretty negative because of the global shocks. he is convinced of what the central banks and what they are doing with the aggressive monetary tightening policy stance means we have not seen the impact of the measures because monetary policy works with a lag. the economy is not doing that

great. global economy is 2.5%. 3% is global recession. we are close to global recession with the high interest rates and high level of debt. he thinks some crack notice sy -- cracks in the system will emerge. a bit of a somber note. >> all of the central bankers we spoke with suggested higher for longer. longer than the markets expect. >> it has been too much of the focus on inflation at the expense of growth and perhaps will come to bite us in the future. arabile. >> guys, thank you for that coverage. great stuff. we are continuing with it throughout part of the morning. we will head back to marrakech. for now, coming up on the show, secretary of state antony blinken visits tel aviv. we will bring you the latest after the break.

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welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede in london.

joumanna is live at the imf world bank meetings in marrakech. let's get to the headlines. game on. cma green lights the $69 billion takeover the activision-blizzard for microsoft. the revised deal addresses the co competition concerns. european equities stumble off the back of disappointing inflation data out of the u.s. and china, but ecb council her kazaks throws his weight behind a rate pause at this month's meeting saying inflation is at a ma manageable level. >> of course, we go from meeting to meeting and forecast to forecast and taking a look at what happens in the economy. hamas rejects warnings for

civilians to leave gaza city and head south ahead of what israel describes as significant military operations in the coming days. earnings season kicks off on wall street with numbers out from jpmorgan chase and citibank and wells fargo on deck before the start of trade stateside. israel's military warned that the entire population of northern gaza estimated 1.1 million people should relocate south immediately. this is ahead of significant military operations. hamas is urging gazans saying people should stay in their homes. we cannot be uprooted or displaced. the u.s. said this would be

devastating to take place. israel laid siege to gaza since the attack by hamas last weekend launching air strikes and cutting off food and electricity and fuel with some u.n. humanitarian experts branded war crimes. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken arrived in jordan where he is set to meet with abbas and king abdullah. blinken discussed the humanitarian crisis. >> civilians should not be used, in any way, as the targets of military operations. they are not the target of israel's operations. we did discuss ways to address the humanitarian needs of people living in gaza to protect them

from harm will israel is defending itself from terrorism and ensure this never happens again. >> let's head to dan murphy with more. dan, the visit by secretary bill clinton -- secretary blinken is to show support. is it making headway? >> reporter: it is, arabile. support coming from the top ally in the united states. the secretary of state is now inbound to jordan and qatar to meet with other leaders to calm tensions in this part of the world and avoid an escalating situation if we see a ground operation from israel as it moves into gaza to take on hamas. at the same time, secretary lloyd austin, the top military

official from the u.s., is significant as it may pave the way to launch the ground offensive. he is meeting with the israel prime minister benjamin netanyahu and alongside other senior leaders in israel. particularly the war cabinet that was established this year. it is not clear if they have the signoff for the ground offensive to begin. i spoke with the former senior idf official and he weighed in on the ground operation and what it may look like and next steps on the war front. take a listen. >> at the end of the day, the operation hamas will not exist. we will kill as many as possible of its members and destroy every

facility of the organization. from the fact that we are asking the people of gaza to move from the north to the south so they will not be in the area and will not be killed. >> arabile, israel's war on hamas in gaza has already resulted in more than 2,500 deaths on both sides. escalating humanitarian crisis now as well as those evacuations from gaza continue to take place. back over to you. >> dan, thank you for that reporting. i appreciate it on this friday afternoon. for latest developments in the israel-hamas war, head online. we have more updates on cnbc.com. coming up on the show, three of wall streets biggest banks posting earnings today. we will show you what to expect after the break.

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welcome back. let's check in on the u.s.

markets and see how things are looking ahead of the open. it has been a mixed picture. the dow jones industrial average with a negative session. the nasdaq may be opening a little bit to the negative and s&p and dow jones industrial average may be looking to the black before the opening of trade. we also saw the cpi numbers yesterday coming out at 0.4% for the month of september. 3.7% year on year for that september reading as well. the banks in focus now. u.s. earnings season is kicking into full gear today. awaiting the results of the three wall street major banks. biggest banks in the u.s. loan losses and continued pressure on investment banking revenue expected to weigh on the sector with the higher rates. goldman sachs will join reporting next week with analysts expecting a 36% earnings decline there according

to lseg. investors are looking for rising rates on the bank portfolio with morgan stanley projecting the impact of bond losses will be double across the sector. the director at imd is joining us about the discussion on the banks earnings. thank you for the time this morning, arturo. are we in a different scenario than reporting previously, particularly in the earnings cycle the before? now we're in a higher for longer stance. >> exactly. i think it is a combination to report a record result for the year on year basis. we have had an amazing year for banks with higher rates for

longer. the last quarter is showing down inflation fears. i think results will stabilize. for the last quarter, i don't expect a big surprise. yet, they will see a reduction in the numbers we have shown in the previous quarter. >> shrinking margins and loan losses still to be in play. would you look at banks and now think perhaps they are priming for the long haul here? are they prepared for the long haul of higher rates for a consistent period? have they bulked up enough with reserves? >> yes, i think we will have higher rates for a long time now. i thinkbanks have incorporated anticipation of profits as well. i don't think we will see a an fantastic year in 2024 and

beyond. because of the international global uncertainty and the new technology disruption, i think banks will pay attention to what is happening besides the economic events. i think we're in the middle of a very important disruption in the banking and financial services. banks need to be vigilant on that. >> arturo, how are you seeing the credit story? could there be further deterioration here especially in the office space or cre, the commercial real estate sector? >> that will happen. that tends to be the delayed response to the increase. you waill see more defaults and more loans reflected in the bank numbers. particularly in the u.s., this

will be the case. banks have sevcertainly been anticipating that. s>> arturo, joumanna here live from marrakech. excuse me if there is a delay. i want to pick your brains on the talk in the u.s. which is the requirement to place more capital. we have a lot of pushback from the banks. what is the end game for the discussions taking place? >> the american banks have a capital requirement. let me make two points about that. it has proven useful for european banks for protection of the customers. let's not forget silicon valley bank was collapsed due to the fact that an silicon valley bank

was not providing criteria to the customers. as a bank customer, i'm willing to pay the price of the solid banking system if this causes more issues on the bank loans. i think this is something we have seen in europe. only now with the banking industry in my part of the world has responded positively to the implem implementation. i think american banks should learn from the svb collapse. it was a regulatory failure. it was not a corporate governance. >> yeah, you know, we are hear in marrakech and we are discussing interest rates and the state of the global economy. i had a guest earlier who was saying this higher rate for longer environment is going to

have ramifications on the broader financial system. there are pockets we are still not aware of. svb is a very good example of that. when you look within the banking system, where do you identify the areas of vulnerabilities? it could be a small number of u.s. banks that fall below the threshold for supervision. it could be the intermediaries. >> the last two years have been interesting. the svb crisis and global crisis we saw means we have learned to be careful not with the loan portfolio which was a problem in the 2008 financial crisis and beyond, but much more on the fixed income portfolio. because of volatility and interest rate increases, there

will would be a weak spot for financial institutions. the second lesson that i think is important that i have learned is credit suisse from last year. the fact our mechanisms are not resolutions for the stress. it is not proven effective. at the end of the day, in the presence of the relationship in europe and switzerland, the government has to come to the rescue for credit suisse. we will see this as a lender of last resort after all of this regulation moves forward. >> arturo, i appreciate your time this morning. the director at imd. my colleague, joumanna, still

joining us as well from marrakech. we will continue with coverage throughout the morning. let's check in on the markets and how they are faring and the week to date picture. for now, we are back into the negative area. it has been two hours of trade for europe. .40% down for the french market. the ftse 100 is down .23%. .20%. .50% down for dax as we see it right now. the follow through from china has been very interesting to note. where are we week to date? it was down last week. now we're looking to be heading higher. 1.3% for the ftse 100. the gainer out on that front. it is interesting to watch across the board. what happens when it comes to the likes of ubisoft who has gotten the go ahead when it comes to the deal with microsoft and activision-blizzard. cma agreeing to the deal.

you see a push there. ftse mib gaining 2%. u.s. markets here across the board. last week, it wasn't as positive. it is continuing to find a way to trudge on does the market. 1% higher for the nasdaq. we had been looking at the cpi print and where are we headed today? it looks like we could open a bit mixed then as the picture thus for for the u.s. market with the nasdaq headed into negative territory. dow jones industrial average and s&p with the positive territory. we have data out of the imf world bank meetings in marrakech as well. that is "street signs." "susq "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. i'm arabile gumede. stay tuned.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5." breaking news. uk regulators give the green light to microsoft's $69 billion deal for activision-blizzard. also a developing story in washington as well as steve scalise says he is no longer interested in becoming the next speaker of the house. israel calling for the evacuation of civilians in the gaza strip as they