care, a lot of numbers, and this is just the beginning of the earnings flood season. s&p futures right now up by about 13 points. the nasdaq, higher by 16. we've been watching treasurys this morning too, and those yields are slightly lower this morning, but that has been the basic ticket item. that does it for us today. have a great weekend, everybody. join us for next week. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. futures are holding their gains despite the worrisome headlines out of israel and gaza. you can thank a steady series of beats today. speaking of earnings, blackrock's larry fink will join us here after the opening bell. our road map begins with the banks topping estimates across the board. the microsoft/activision deal officially done as

britain's watchdog gives the green light. boeing is the biggest drag on the dow, expanding this probe of the production defect on the max. let's begin with the banks, jim. overall, not just the beats, some of the commentary about investment banking, efficiency ratios look good. >> it's funny because obviously this group came in as cold as i've ever seen it. what a change from even earlier this week when pepsi came in hot and then rolls over. i mention that because that was the first big quarter. these quarters, when you listen to them, you forget how much money they can make in this environment. and then you start thinking, you know what? these things are seven, eight, nine, ten times earnings. they're trading like steel mills, and they're really filled with a lot of smart people who are doing a lot of good things who show you they can make a lot of money without underwriting, without m&a. there's going to be a revaluation here, recognizing this group had become -- really

went to the bottom of the list of what people wanted to own. and now you're starting to think, wow, you know what? they have good efficiency ratios. they're making a lot of money in a very difficult environment. what happens if the environment gets better? jpmorgan, when i came in, was down 70 cents. i'm reading it all in a vacuum and saying, i don't see anything wrong. then on the coms call, they come on like gangbusters with caveating things that -- the caveat international problems. they're making a lot of money. now, let's see if it lasts. i happen to like charlie scharf. my travel trust owns wells fargo, and i saw the stock was u up, and i said, that's got to be an error. but what he did was have his expenses down and his revenues up. it was kind of a classic form of what you're supposed to do, and i think that charlie -- i know charlie doesn't come on. i wish he would.

i think people need to know who charlie scharf is. while he can be very dogmatic about, say, your manners -- >> yes. >> -- he's delightful about banking. >> you know him well. that is sort of the running theme. citi's another good example where revenue growth outpaced expense growth. even the guidance, jim, on net interest margin for the coming quarter, or net interest income, better at pnc, above consensus at wells. >> they're supposed to be terrible. now, the estimates came down, down, down, and these companies are supposed to do very poorly at this point in the yield curve, at this point where the fed is. i think what people have to start recognizing is these companies are very lucrative. they've not been viewed as that, and they're usually a one-day wonder. you'll have a quarter where wells will go up, and then maybe on monday, somebody will raise numbers, and by the time we get to friday, just move on. maybe this is a new benchmark of recognizing that in a really horrible environment, they made

pretty good money. >> how do you square all of that with, as you mentioned, dimon's comments about the world and his comment that the world may be more dangerous today than it has been in decades. and then ongoing complaints about basal regulation and geopolitics, ukraine, now israel. >> i think we are going to have larry fink on, and he's talking about it being as hard as 2016, 2018, and i think that's more level headed. he's not the first person who's come on and said, this is the most perilous time. and i keep coming back to moments when it was existential, and you were preparing to die, and i don't use this lightly, from an h-bomb attack from russia. i think that 1941, there was very little chance that we could win. there have been moments where we have had presidents under siege, and people don't understand '73, '74 and what it was like to have a president who was a crook.

and i just think that people need a little more historical backdrop. i was going to be a history professor, and i turned it down because my dad said, i'm a salesman, and you want to be a history professor ? why don't we just keep the tradition of making no money? i said, okay, dad, i get that. i think the sense of history is missing from these people who are not historians, and they say things like -- i'm not saying when the germans bomb pearl harbor, i'm not going that. that's a reference to a movie. but i think this desire to make it so that we analogize to other times is -- is very suboptimal history, and it's not rigorous enough. we just don't understand the republic's challenges. i mean, this is like when president lincoln sat around with grant after they won, and lincoln's making a judgment that we're not a great country, and they're all saying, what a great country, because we just finished a war that we won. there have been perilous times

in the republic. >> right. >> this is not one of them. this is not a great time. but it's not perilous. and we have to stop saying, especially the rich people, it's always perilous for the rich people. most people are trying to keep their job, trying to -- whether they should go to dollar general, dollar tree. >> this is the conversation you and i had earlier in the week after paul tudor jones was on "squawk." >> ill advised. >> your notion is that opportunity will always exist, despite whatever backdrop you're given in your lifetime. >> was there opportunity december 8, 1941? that was problematic. was there opportunity when jimmy carter was president and he basically told you, listen, there's really no reason for hope? and i know he's a sainted figure, but i was alive during the period, and i said, geez, maybe we're not in a good time. or with the hostages, when reagan came in and he was saying, listen, we're going to bomb iran, and that's a frightening concept. >> does it strike you as odd, though, that given the news this

week, the dow is on pace to break a four-week loss. >> that's what i want to ask larry fink about. that is the conundrum that tells me that i'm right. that you can have all these things that the rich people -- and i really want to make it a little class warfare, and i don't like class warfare, but there are a lot of people who come on our network who have made a lot of money, and they don't -- they're not sensitive to the idea that there should be others that make money. they're just sensitive to keeping their money. now, you could say, well, jim, no, they're being great historians, coming on here, and i'm saying, they're hack historians. they're hack. and by the way, just because you're rich, don't make you that smart. there it is. i'm putting it out there. >> your point about the consumer, this line out of jpmorgan, the cfo this morning saying the consumer is not feeling acute pain yet. that's feeding this conversation about excess savingings. >> they still have some savings left. small business, which my former colleague here, larry kudlow

would say, look, we spend way too much time talking about big business. small business is doing incredibly well. that's jpmorgan. jpmorgan's numbers were exceptional, but coming in, what the heck was jpmorgan doing at 145? what were these banks -- remember, i think we have to default to what they talk to when they're off the desk. i mean, literally, they say, okay, why is my stock at nine times earnings? we're the premier bank in the world. and the answer is because you're hated and unpredictable, and people don't know what you're going to do. and people buy into the -- that it's the coming apocalypse. these are -- these stocks were valued at apocalyptic levels. i mean, wells fargo, charlie scharf has turned that place around, and kbret that stock was at $62 on february 8 of 2018. so, it was at $62. i mean, what a terrible, terrible situation. >> right. >> you know, it's like -- there's a piece today saying it's not the end of the world,

that the gop -- not the end of the world. and that's very difficult. i was listening to a call that was saying, listen, once everyone's on gop-1, delta is going to make a lot more money because the planes are lighter. and i thought, okay. okay. it's because people want to order the tomahawk. they'll order the tofu. no. >> we're going to get to novo, by the way, raising guidance today. >> how about that? and eli lilly is better there. >> harker is on the tape this morning. fed official, of course. we're at the point where we can hold rates where they are. rates are restrictive, disinflation is under way. we're going to hear from powell next week, jim. >> that's good. i wish these guys would all shut up. i mean it seriously. they're confusing the markets. they're not doing anything that i find valuable. i've spoken at the rotary, okay? just keep it high-level about the neighborhood. there's absolutely no reason that patrick harker had to do one thing to deviate from the

narrative that bryce harper is the single best acquisition we've ever had. that's it. i mean, just stop it. talk about the eagles. and then say, listen, things are fine. i don't like these people who every day come up with a different view. who are they? they're just -- he was -- i like him, but we have a fed chair. he's very smart. and it would really help him if they just said, you know what, i defer to the fed. just say that over and over again. no one's going to dislike you. no one. but no, they feel like they all have to say something. we have an amazing fed chair, and can't he just be the spokesperson for the fed? >> overcommunication has been a common complaint. powell will have to reference, at least in some way, how the world has changed in the last five or six days. >> that, i agree. >> let's get to the latest around the israel-hamas war. israel's military calling for all civilians of gaza city to relocate within 24 hours, a move that may signal an upcoming ground assault.

let's turn to nbc's kelly cobiella live from jerusalem. good morning. >> carl, good morning to you. 1.1 million people, that's half the population of gaza, told to evacuate, to move south by midnight tonight. the united nations said they received warning at midnight last night that they needed to evacuate. they say this is simply impossible. we have been talking to our staff on the ground. they say that people are packing up their cars, taking the absolute necessities and trying to move south, but the problem is not everybody can get to the south. our folks say that there's a shortage of taxis. there simply aren't enough cars to take 1.1 million people out of harm's way in this short amount of time. there's a shortage of fuel because of the blockade that's been in place for the past six days now. and on top of that, the united nations says, look, we have people in hospital on life support, babies in incubators,

patients who are very ill who need power in order to survive, and it's simply not feasible to get all of those people out of harm's way, keeping in mind that the largest hospital in the gaza strip is in gaza city in the north. so, a very difficult situation playing out for civilians in the north. the idf says people have to move, it's for their own safety. meantime, here in israel, the defense secretary, lloyd austin, was in town today, meeting with his israeli counterpart, and he said afterwards about those attacks on saturday, i'm paraphrasing here, i have experience with isis. this is worse than anything i've seen with isis. showing support for israel with his visit here, and secretary of state antony blinken still on his diplomatic trip through the middle east, meeting with king abdullah in jordan, as well as the palestinian president, and

on top of all this, we have those air strikes overnight. the idf pounding gaza once again, hitting some 750 targets overnight. the country now sort of on standby, essentially, for what may be a ground offensive coming quite soon, carl. >> kelly, thank you for that. we'll talk again hopefully this morning about comments out of hezbollah as well. we'll get to dollar general, novo, unh, boeing, ford, a call on netflix, and of course, lryar fink of blackrock when we return.

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. the microsoft/activision deal officially done as the uk competition and markets authority gives the green light. last major hurdle holding up the deal. activision's bobby kotick was on "squawk" earlier today. >> we were concerned about what the regulatory climate would be, but we never thought that there was any, you know, real reason that was legitimate why these two companies couldn't combine. there's so many competitors that are bigger, more successful, with more advantages, and i think we ultimately always believed that just on the merits of the transaction, that it would get through. >> jim, is it all clear? >> yeah. well, i'll tell you, if you go back to the ftc's case against the deal, and you go back to the injunction that they failed to

get, and you have the -- a judge, a federal judge just saying, look, there's absolutely no rigor whatsoever to the ftc, they produced one expert witness who was not qualified, and there's no reason -- and there's no diminution of gamers and people who write games and i read it, and i talked to some of my friends who are in my law school class, and they all said, rebuke. just a total rebuke. so, i figured this would happen. there was, you know, it was a pretty fatuous reasoning that there would be less money for people to write programs. now, i will say, just want to distinguish that between the more rigorous jonathan kanter at the justice department who brought the suit when stephen king was a key witness about how if you continue to limit the number of publishers, then it will be impossible for authors to get a good bid. that's very true. >> meanal while, there is a comt

from an ftc spokesperson. "we remain focused on the federal appeal process. despite miecrosoft and activisin closing their deal in december." what's the chance they do pedal to the metal on that? >> if they have to make a decision, whether they want to be viewed as a laughingstock or a rigorous organization, this is their moment, the line in the sand where they can say, okay, look, we've lost this. we put up the best case we could. they were slapped down in that ruling. the only person i've ever searched out is judge kaplan, by the way, who's the judge for sbf, who's very tough, but this was a ruling that said, guys, please, get some lawyers. find out what you're doing. you really don't know what you're doing. and so, if they go up against that, they will lose so quickly, their heads are going to spin, faster than reagan. and i don't mean president. >> do you think any of this is a

comment on the benefits of sticking to your guns if you are corporate involved in a deal? facing obstacles to close? >> i've been with some m&a lawyers and bankers. m&a bankers think every deal is going to get passed, but m&a lawyers are starting to say, you know what? i've been advising every single client, don't make that deal, and now they're advising, listen, i think that that has -- there's precedent. and you'll win in court. but you'll be opposed, but you'll win in court. so, do you have nine months? do you have a year? and that's a big change of dialogue and dynamic. >> yeah, and that explains some of the m&a commentary from larry, who we'll talk to in a moment, at blackrock and jpm and others at the banks today. >> i think that, you know, obviously, president biden wouldn't have picked lina khan if he didn't think that's the right way to go. and by the way, it is absolutely true that shareholders benefit from takeovers. but when did it ever happen and

said that shareholders aren't supposed to benefit? by the way, can i just tell them that the combination between exxon and pioneer gives them 15%, but rockefeller had 100%, and that is heavily concentrated. >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell on an eventful friday morning as we kick off q3 earnings season in force. futures are positive here. we'll get the opening bell in ten minutes with blackrock's larry fink still on deck.

(♪♪) it's inspiring to work at a place where our patients succeed. and where we as therapists do, too. with great benefits from principal, our clinic shows they truly care about us. (♪♪) time for cramer's "mad dash" as we count down to the opening bell. >> we always get caught up in the banks, and that's right, the big ones, but we ought to focus time on united health.

united health is the biggest -- this is an amazing health insurer that has a terrific technology department too. now, the last time they spoke, this was the famous pickleball incident where you suddenly said, wait a second, the medical loss is bad, and it's -- the jaws dropped from everybody because unh never misses. unh is back, and they've got the medical loss ratio perfect. they gained -- every line item, i like. some people say their optimum business wasn't that good. i say, give me a break. this is a key component in the health care universe, and i just want to point people out that there will be a plethora of stocks that will trade well off this. >> have you heard anything on glp-1s from them? >> i'm waiting. look, if i were on the call, the first thing i would say is, are you going to encourage people at major corporations that they say, listen, you should take glp-1 because we find that the heart attack ratio is very good? but i think that everyone is still circumspect because eli

lilly is only for diabetes, not for weight loss, but i have to tell you that if this holds up, you're going to see tons of stocks in this health care, of which there are many, say, but maybe the scare of too many operations post the pandemic is now over. good quarter. >> yeah. and of all the dow names, nothing moves the index more than unh. >> i'm so glad you said that because that's why people might see the market goes up. it's not going to be jpmorgan. >> that explains what futures are doing. watch that. after the break, our exclusive with blackrock's larry fink with the opening bell in just over five minutes.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. my least favorite would be long-term bonds. i don't think bonds with a long duration make any sense given what's going on in the world. you know? and i think interest rates will likely go higher, and when

interest rates go higher, bond prices drop. i would not be a buyer of bonds until we got to over 5%. >> that's lee cooperman yesterday, cnbc's fa summit, sort of echoing others on the street like bill ackman. >> we get to hear from larry fink, of course, who's got a lot more to say on this issue and knows much more than i do. i will say that i'm with -- i'm very much with lee. i've not made a move. i've got -- we can't own stocks. i have cash. i'm not attracted at this level. i think there's -- the 20-year at 5%, even that doesn't intrigue me. i got to get a better return, because i would rather be in the s&p 500. >> were you freaked out by the auction yesterday? >> it was very bad because the idiots in treasury did it -- why did they finally do 30-year? i begged them to do 30-year paper. not this treasury secretary, she doesn't take my calls. i don't have a relationship with

this treasury. i shouldn't say she wouldn't take my call. the previous three treasury secretaries, i begged them to do 30-year because it seemed such an obvious giveaway, you know, just an obvious do, and now they do 30-year? someone there has to really get in touch with their cranium. i think they're on a permanent intellectual vacation. >> meantime, b of a today, hartnett argues the ten-year, if it can stay below 5%, maybe the s&p holds 4,200. that make sense? >> if we're going to link it to the bonds, let's go on autopilot. that's really -- i mean, united health is not going to trade with the bonds, okay? there are individual stocks. we are in earnings season. and now, there are individual stocks that trade, and i don't want to play the hedge fund game of just looking at the s&p, because we're not trading futures here. we're investing in stocks. it's a very big difference. >> with that in mind, let's get

this final trading session of the week up and running. opening bell today, cnbc realtime exchange. at the big board, it's wells celebrating diversity and equity and inclusion month. we'll talk to the cfo in a couple of hours later on this morning. at the nasdaq, it's money hero, a personal finance platform, celebrating its listing via spac. >> well, i hope it goes well, because i don't like spacs. they've really hurt the people who watch us. someone better watch out. i'll just do it because i do not play for dinner, and i don't care. >> are you impressed that people appear to be, at the moment, willing to go long into a weekend where we know what the headlines are out of gaza? >> well, i think that -- look, it's a complicated issue there, but there's a -- obviously, a strategic move that israel's made that says, listen, you want -- you don't get the lights turned on until you get the hostages back, and i think that they have always felt that egypt

was a free rider, and that they're trying to push people down that way. but you know, look, i think that there's -- there are a lot of people, i think, who feel that the situation is not out of control, that what israel is doing is trying to figure out a way to make it so there's the least bloodshed, but there will be a lot of bloodshed, and i just don't know. i think there's a lot of people -- when you hear people talking about how they're worse than isis, what that does is take off the table where one country is, the united states, which has been a huge backer and saved israel in the i doyom kip war, and people don't realize that. nixon saved them with kissinger. i think when you heard what both the defense secretary and blinken said, which is, look, it's isis. well then, do what you have to. >> defense secretary is there now, and blinken is going to be making his way around the

region. i think oman is on the list. all sectors for the time being are green. we should mention oil up high, jim, 4%. this will be the best day in a couple months. >> i think it's manipulated now. there's plenty of supply. there is just, i think, an attempt to try to keep the price higher. russian sanctions have not worked whatsoever because the chinese won't play ball. i want to go back to israel for a second. israel, we have personal views, and we have views that we can talk about where our personal views can suffuse it, but i don't think that's right. what i'm trying to do is just say what i see. i'm an american who says what i see, and i just want to make that point because i'm trying to distance myself from somebody who might come on and say, i'm pulling every dollar. that's not what i'm talking about. it seems like that's what they're doing, and it's a strategy that's different from what people thought they were going to do. that's all i'm saying. >> very good. by the way, jpmorgan, yesterday, did get bullish.

they said once again on global energy, reiterates an $80 target, they're talking about a supply deficit next year with upside risk to the 150 range. >> we're going to speak to someone who has more international background than i have in a moment, but to me, we have an axis of evil not unlike what president reagan talked about, and the russians do what they want, and the chinese do what they want, and i don't think it has to be that way. particularly, i don't think the chinese have to be part of an axis of evil. i think they have to rethink their position, because i don't think they are who they say they are, and i'm not making an nfl analogy, but i think there's more hope with china than there is with russia, and i don't want to say they're the same kind of countries. >> right. meanwhile, we're back to looking at signals of deflation in china once again, which is causing some to revisit their growth models. >> i wish they realized how much they need us. if they did, i think the world would be a safer place. >> so, banks are -- will help lead us here, jim, sort of segues into our coming guest in a couple of seconds. >> yeah, look, charlie scharf,

wells fargo, the diversity and inclusion people, terrific group, that stock was up a dollar and now it's only up a dollar versus jpmorgan, which has done incredibly well, and i just think that -- i think the one thing about jpmorgan is that they have had one-day moves that surprise people, and i think a lot of that is the very close look at what's happening -- what's going on. you tend to be surprised. it's a good quarter. you know, when you get jpmorgan at nine times earnings, i mean, i don't know if you read the house of morgan, you will know that they should never trade at nine times earnings. they're better than that. much better than that. well, i'm so excited, because we got someone who's going to make it so, someone who does a lot more history than i do and a lot more outlook of what's going on in the world, and blackrock reported a terrific quarter this morning, and i think given the fact that there's outflows, it shows you that technologically, they're doing a lot to make sure it's not the fulcrum of why we look at it. they reached over $9 trillion. when you look at it, when you

see that number, that's like governments. like, oh, $9 trillion, that must be the u.s. government. anyway, blackrock ceo larry fink joins us now to discuss the quarter. congratulations. you can make money no matter what. >> thank you, jim. carl, good to see you. >> you say you're disappointed because you're a competitive person. sorry about the dodgers. and what i look at and i say to myself, if you're disappointed with these numbers, you're everything you can to bring in money. there's really not more that you can do, and it just happens to be the world and where the bonds are that i think are making it so your competition is tough. >> as you say, revenues are up 5%. operating income was up 7%. net income was up 14%. we did have some outflows in our precision etfs, which is a great example of more people choosing i-shares to trade around, actively trading it, and with market sentiment turned, like it did in august and september, and you -- people can see that

daily. people should be paying attention to the precision. you know sentiment and you see outflows. however, it's up hundreds of billions of dollars in the last few years, so it's every time we've seen this period of time when we see outflows, we see real inflows when sentiment turns. we had one big client who took -- pulled out money. it had nothing to do with it. our normal flows were 95% of the average flows of the last two quarters, and then systematic l ly, over the last 12 months, we're up $300 billion in net inflows, and we see a huge opportunities and flows over the next year or so, because all the things we're working on, and -- but there is no question we have a better understanding of the texture of what's going on in the markets or etf platform and our global network, and unquestionably, we're seeing, you know, my barometer of hope and fear with all the

geopolitical issues, we're seeing more fear, more people pulling back, and you're actually seeing that in the yield curve. you're seeing the yield curve flatten, and the yield curve is flattening because, a, people think we're closer to the end of rate hikes. i'm still calling for rates -- long rates to be over 5%. i think the numbers of inflation this week really shows the stickiness of it. we're going to do a lot more military spending as a result of geopolitical issues. we are going to see an acceleration of fragmentation to supply chains because of geopolitical issues, but also as we advance a.i. and robotics, there is such an enormous opportunity to near shore and i think this is all the dynamic. that's part of the dynamics of what's going on in china when you were talking about china and china's growth issues. we are seeing a recalibration. as i think i said a couple quarters ago, people are

reassessing all their dependencies and one of the great depend sencies the world s is manufacturing in china. technology is allowing us to recalibrate that. look at the growth rates of india. look at the growth rates of mexico. great opportunities. >> i know you know mexico very well, and india was quite impressive this quarter. >> that's where money is going to. i was in japan last week, and the amount of investor interest to invest in japan is extraordinary. we have a new prime minister in kishida who has really reoriented the entire economy, more business friendly, business open. they are trying to track more and more external capital, so we're seeing actually money moving from different locations back in japan, and japan has been an area where investors have been systematically underinvesting, and so they're now getting back in. >> you make the point of the generational opportunity in bonds, what you just said about the 30-year.

i found myself looking at portfolios. i have to invest in bonds, and i was very attracted to, candidly, to the high yield. it just seemed like a great opportunity. but i don't know where that's where you would prefer someone my age. who's interested in that? who should be? >> as rates go higher, you're going to see more immunization of the old defined benefit plans to lock in as liability rates went up. we are seeing more pension funds, more corporate funds that are matched, assets and liabilities, so they're going to be able to immunize the volatility, and that means they're going to be selling out of equities, buying more long bonds, and that will happen. it's not happening yet. but let's be clear. if you could start earning 7% on credit, if you could start earning 10% to 12% on infrastructure investing as our infrastructure act going in, as our i.r.a. starting to be implemented, these are going to be good, healthy long-term

investments that are going to be anywhere from 8 to 15% returns with high probability of success. and so, that's where a lot of money is moving. >> okay. carl, when i was talking about how the rich people, they say it's perilous, this is what i'm talking about. that's the opportunity. people who are listening should say, you know what? in this time of peril, did he just say i might be able to get those rates? that's pretty darn good. >> right now, we are facing a lot of headwinds on geopolitical issues. hamas invasion of israel, the horrific acts, that creates a lot of fear, and people are actually pulling back, watching this. at the same time -- and the headlines of every newspaper, every website, is about the fear issues about the world. but if you overlay the opportunities investing in a.i. and robotics, the opportunities in near-shoring and

recalibrating supply chains. now, if you overlay, because you were talking about the health care companies -- if you overlay the incredible transformation w with ozempic and other items, what it's going to do for longevity of life. >> yes. >> this week, we discovered that these drugs could help in renal failure. they can help in other things. now, if you overlay that and eli lilly's drug for alzheimer's, that extends the pathway by at least 40%. this is creating hope. so, a lot of people ask me, why isn't the market collapsing? because of all this. we're not spending time talking about these opportunities of, there's incredible medical discovery that is elongating life. we have great recalibration of supply chains that's going to bring jobs here, opportunities here to the united states, in mexico and india and other places. so, you know, we're spending so much time on the negatives, but

all of this just tells me why you need to be continuing investing. these are the opportunities. >> carl, we spend so much time talking about the fact that we're not going to eat sugared cereal, maybe we should talk about the idea that maybe our average life span is going to be 75. >> think about what that means, though, getting back to long duration bonds. if we're going to be living longer, are we being prepared properly? if you can start locking in 7%, 8:00, 9% for 10, 20 years, that's going to give you a lot more confidence and dignity. >> people are betting against themselves. they think they're going to make it to 72. they should be thinking they could make it to 85. >> i think that's going to be the biggest societal risk. >> yes. >> and i think, you know, look, we're seeing more death because of drugs, drug abuse, but -- and so that's bringing down our longevity rates. all those type of issues. and so, if you make it to 60, you have a higher probability of making it to 80 and 90 and 100,

and so the statistics of the declining mortality rates are hiding some of the real upsides and i'm not trying to dismiss some of these tragic medical problems like, you know, drug abuse and the -- but we may be solving obesity, which is a major problem of so many of the problems, and so, i'm more optimistic than ever with the overlay that in the short run, we're going to have to face some near term issues. >> do you think that means the median age of the marginal equity buyer rises? >> yes. >> you'll tolerate risk later in life? >> i am, and i'm older. no, there's no question. i think the traditional reallocation, i think the 60/40 type of thing, i think, you know, for a long-term investor, long-term view, who can tolerate market volatility, you should be at least 80% in equities or hard assets. >> amen. >> it could be real estate.

it could be infrastructure. and if you could really tolerate it, in my mind, you should have been 90%, 100% in equities. now, a lot of people can't afford that type of volatility. >> this is a radical view, and yet it's an empirical view. >> it proves out. you got to have a ten 20-year view. i'm a hopeful person. i believe that in ten years, in 20 years, humanity's in better position than it is today. with that view, i want to own hard assets. i want to own equities. i want to be a part of this economy. >> but how do you deal with the fact that so many people come on our shows and say this is the most perilous time? i asaw one say it was the most perilous time since world war ii. others talking about how the budget deficit is going to reduce us to a pitiful, helpless giant. >> one of the facts that makes he shudder, in 2000, the u.s. deficit was $8 trillion.

it's $33 trillion today. so, think about it. over the last 23 years, we raised our deficits by $25 trillion, more than a trillion dollars a year. that is unsustainable. so, those -- if we don't grow out of this problem, this is why i want to talk about optimism, we're dead. we can't shrink our way out of this. we have to grow ourselves out of it. i actually believe those are real worries, and i think that's why i believe inflation is going to be higher for longer. the financing of our deficits. but this is why i'm going to every government -- i've been in six countries in the last two weeks. i'm going to six more countries in the next two weeks. i believe deficits are going to start impacting economies, and that's why there's a greater need for public-private investing, and that's where blackrock comes in, working with governments, working with states, working with municipalities on -- forget about the old way of financing, increasing your deficits. you're going to have to provide,

you know, more opportunities for private sector to invest. >> definitely. >> that's going to be the 8 to 12% investments for our clients >> you speak about governments, and i think you know more about investing and talking with china than anybody i deal with. perhaps i don't deal with kissinger, which is a shame, because i think he knows more than anybody else. >> he's an amazing man, especially at 101. we should all have that type of acuity at 101. >> absolutely. when i listen to him, i think he does say, he and graham allison, one of my professors, i'm so old, said, we've got to solve the china thing before it goes off the rails. is there a way to solve china? >> look, if there is a recalibration of relationship going on, and during a recalibration of the relationship, it creates this type of stress. i think we woke up that relationship was to asymmetric. our trade imbalance continues. we had a trade agreement in 2017.

china has only lived up to a portion of what they committed to. they're not buying more and more u.s. goods. we're trying to make our trade more consistent with each other. they should be buying more of our agriculture. they should be reaching out to find ways of deepening the relationship. we had six u.s. senators in china this past week. we are trying to have a dialogue to recalibrate it, and at the same time, let's be clear. china is still supporting our enemy in russia. you talked about that earlier. you know, if china was a corporation, and they were dealing with our enemy, we would consume our business elsewhere. so, i put it in that caliber of business. that's what's accelerating this movement of recalibrating supply chains. if china became supportive of their clients -- and their largest clients are the u.s. and

europe, and they're supporting their clients' enemy or it appears they're supporting our enemy, and they weren't as loud as they should have been related to the issues in israel. you know, that forces everybody to say, should i recalibrate my relationship more? and i think, you know, i'm always a believer, it's economy. and we are going to see a systematic more outflows out of china if they don't reorient themselves to be working with their clients. and so, i'm not saying it's going to work out. and it could get worse. but i actually -- imp want to simplify why we have this. but some of our greatest american companies have huge businesses in china. we underdiscuss that. they have real businesses there. and so, we have to be

thoughtful. okay, there are going to be segments of our economy that we are going to restrict, but there are segments of our economy that we want to embellish with all our trading partners, and i think that's why i think a dialogue and a conversation is important. and i thought it was fantastic that the six senators, led by the majority leader, schumer, going there, working there, meeting with the leadership of china, and having a hard-edge conversation. >> schumer's going to be going to israel now. >> as he should. >> and i wonder what you think the risk is about iran jumping in and how we navigate all that with the gerald ford now en route. >> i think having "the gerald ford" there was a spectacular statement by the united states. i think president biden's statement could not have been any more direct. you know, i know as much as you do. >> right. that's the problem. >> obviously, it's very fluid. obviously, the horrific actions of the terrorists of hamas.

at the same time, the issues around the gaza strip, all of these issues are, let's be clear, war is bad. i don't know howout. let's, hopefully, if you look at the oil market, the oil market is a little frightened that this is going to be more elevated. obviously, we can't be frightened of one day actions and moves. we're going to know more in the next ten days, but our hearts at blackrock, we've been working with all our employees. we have an office in israel. we had to make sure every one of our employees were safe, their families were safe. some of our employees are being called into the military. i mean this is a very fluid issue for us, and we are trying to work with all our clients worldwide. >> now, it is, at the university level, not individuals, but out cases. when i was at harvard, we fought

hard to not allocate money to companies that were doing business in south africa. >> yes. >> and i didn't think there was any issue about that. i helped lead movement because i felt they had slaves. i think there are other countries, other schools right now, where there are students who very much divest from any company that deals with israel, works in israel. are you seeing that as part of your funds? >> we have the largest etf in israel. there has been outflows. that's a derisking. >> that's absolutely right. >> the shekel has declined. the answer is clearly no, i am not, we are not seeing anybody looking to divest from israel for political reasons. okay. for economic reasons, in the short run, that's the beauty of the etf. it's a market sentiment instrument. you can see every day how the market is moving and that etf we're seeing some outflows recently and that's more of a

market sentiment issue and, you know, so they're going to have to be spending more money on military and so their investments in tech and all that stuff will be slowing down, so look, war is bad. >> right. >> but -- >> yeah. i mean, what is it good for? one last question, you ain't going anywhere, are you? >> i'm not being called up for duty, no. >> i hope you're sticking around. >> i'm sticking around. i have more energy, as i said, i've been in six countries the last two weeks, going to six more countries in the next two weeks. i get energized by travel. i get energized by having deeper connections with our clients and the opportunities i see for blackrock overseas is fantastic. the conversations of public-private partnerships. we announced a partnership with the government of new zealand with their net zero fund, a huge project in australia in battery storage. i'm very excited we're going to have a couple big announcements

here in the u.s., partnerships with major companies. this would give, you know -- this gives me the energy to move forward. >> excellent. >> and the most important thing, what also gives me a lot of energy, i can tell you, we have a great team of leadership behind rob and i at blackrock. >> great board too. >> going to power the firm for many years ahead. >> you don't look tired. >> don't look tired. i feel like i listen to you, i remember my friend marc benioff, business can be the greatest force for social change. >> it is the greatest force for social good. let's be clear, capitalism, every day, shows it's the best economic force in the world. it is the greatest long-term economic form for peace. >> thank you so much for coming on. into good to see you. >> as we do to break, let's check bonds. yields close to the highs of the session but lower on the day. we got relief from import prices, those harker headlines were cool. umich in 7 minutes.

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what's on mad tonight? >> the banks. jpmorgan is acting like nvidia. how do you like that jensen huang. look out jamie dimon. wells fargo, charlie sharp. delivering. it's time for the banks, and why not. everything else has been awful. >> jim, we'll see you tonight. >> thank you. it was a great week. larry, i learn from him every time into "mad money," 6:00 p.m. jim is right, banks trading at a three-week high. it's not unh. jpmorgan is leading the dow. we're back in two. so heartbreaking. at this holocaust museum in israel, you see the names; the faces, of jews that were brutally murdered. this great cloud of witnesses cries out to us "comfort, comfort my people." we're in a race against time to reach every holocaust survivor

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla, live for you as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. david has the morning off. stocks higher today across the board. there's the sector snapshot for you. real estate, discretionary and communication services weaker, energy leading the charge, ownership oil prices rising on

the back of the middle east and worries there. higher round, we're going to talk about bank earnings. gold is stronger which i'll note on the back of that uncertainty. 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three areas of the market we are watching. financials, i mentioned, on the move after results out of jpmorgan, citi and wells fargo. we'll break down the numbers. united health in the green, beating system, raising its full-year guidance after revenue grew 14% from last year. oil spiking higher after u.s. tightened sanctions on russian crude sales. u.s. imposed sanctions on two shipping companies carrying russian crude it said violated the oil cap of $60 per barrel. >> let's get umich numbers with rick santelli. good morning. >> reporter: yes, good morning, carl and sara. interest rates are moving up, stocks down a bit, maybe here's the reason why. university of michigan sentiment at 63. a disappointment. weakest level since may.

these are preliminary and can change. 66.7 on surnts conditions. much weaker than 70.3. expectations 60.7. we were expecting a number closer to 66. also the weakest number since may. and one-year inflation, went from a 3.2 lowest since march of 2021, to the highest since may of this year at 3.8%. 5 to 10-year inflation from 2.8, the lowest since september of '22 up to 3%. even though we've had several 3%, to find a higher numbers at 3.1, guess what month? you have to go to may. may is wild and these are wild numbers. higher inflation, weaker confidence and this could be the stencil to pay attention to as prices remain sticky and growth becomes more questionable, at least based on some of these qualitative surveys. back to you. >> all right. rick santelli, thank you very

much. i mean, it's a little bit troubling. you don't want to see stronger infla inflationary expectations and weaker confidence. points to what larry fink was, he's in the camp inflation will remain sticky and long-term yields higher above 5%. pointed to yesterday's cpi number. fink would point to these as well. there's still not more than a 50% chance that fed raises interest rates in november or december at this point. but they're no doubt going to be watching these numbers. >> i'm just thinking we should make a list of people who have -- in the 5% camp, jamie dimon, lee cooperman, bill ackman, larry here on set a couple moments ago. did get relatively dovish headlines out of harker today where he did say policy was restrictive, echoing bostic the fed can relax, bullard no longer on, saying maybe 6, 6.5.

>> harker is important because he's a voting member right now on the committee, and he backed his other colleagues they're not in a rush to continue to raise rates. harker said absent a stark turn what i see in the data and hear from contacts, we are at the point where we can hold rates where they are. we did it a lot and fast and that seems to be where the center of the fed is going right now, but they're going to be watching because they have to stay vigilant on inflation and keep the focus on that. but with the lagged impacts of monetary policy, hikes that they've done with the big backup in long-term treasury yield, all should theoretically put pressure on the economy and on inflation. we're also digesting what we got from some of the bank ceos on the economy today. overall the bank earnings were better than expected and credit loss provisions were lower. as far as the commentary, wanted to mention some of it. we heard jamie dimon, for instance. he pointed to a healthy u.s.

economy and healthy consumer. u.s. consumers and businesses generally remain healthy although consumers are spending down their excess cash buffers. we know that. persistently tight labor markets and extremely high government debt levels with the largest peace time fiscal deficits are increasing the risk that inflation remains elevated and interest rate rise further from here. which very much speaks to what we're seeing in the data today. >> in a perfect world earnings season is a demonstration of corporate's baability to adapt d efish sen ratios out of banks was above expectations, couple days with their guidance at pnc and wells in q4, they are doing what they can in this environment. >> they're cutting jobs at pnc for one, and yes, the cost cutting and cost efficiency is a theme in earnings. we're going to talk to wells fargo, the cfo, in the next hour about that. they've been a good example of that. i think those share price

reactions are notable. the 4.6% jump. they benefit as a relative safe haven in banking and the first republic acquisition. >> the integration is going well. >> going well. raised the net interest income so that's always good. but just in terms of what we're getting in terms of macro takeaways, charlie sharp, ceo of wells fargo, also talking about the consumer. they haven't seen -- they're putting aside money for bad loans, worried about commercial real estate. but the economy continued to be resilient, we are seeing the impact of the slowing economy with loan balances declining and charge offs continuing to deteriorate modestly. things are changing and weakening, but nobody is panicking or using the "r" word for recession. that's where we are right now at the time where we're just really focused on geopolitical tensions, rising price of oil, and whether treasuries act as a safe haven. there's all this talk about term

premium. weak 30-year auction yesterday. it's good to see when treasuries get bid when there are times of stress. if there were worries about supply and demand and they reached extremes, that would be tested. >> yeah. bofa, takes a crack at what it would take to sink us below 4200 on the s&p. you need $100 oil in his view and need the 10-year above 5 and probably need dollar down, yields up, an environment where nothing is working for stocks. >> which is -- we're not there yet. >> right. >> we're watching. it let's talk about the bank earnings and takeaways. ubc large cap banks erica najarian joins us. overall, what picture did the banks give you about their strength and the economy overall? yeah. i think what the banks really told you today is, higher interest rates is actually good for them. as you think about what's really driving the beats here, the banks essentially earned more on, you know, on loans and

securities than they paid out on deposits. while a lot of the commentary that you guys noted early in the top of this hour really, you know, looks caution ahead, what we like to think of in terms of that revenue power that net interest income is it's a firewall to potential higher credit losses as we think about a deteriorating economy and firewall to capital. >> what did you make of the loan loss provisions? we have a great chart from our news desk editor that looked at the difference of what everybody set aside this quarter versus the previous quarters? it looked like they're a lot less. we're showing it on the screen, the green chart is where we are or the blue at the end is where we are right now. what did you make of the information we're getting and how the banks are preparing? >> yeah. i noticed that too. that popped out. if you look at the first three quarters, you can see that banks

built significantly early on in this year, right, as they were preparing for 5, 6% unemployment, and i think as we have more information and more data, they're continuing to build for things like credit card, but releasing reserves in places like home lending, for example, or certain corporate loans. while it does look like a step down in terms of the actual cost, reserves continue to move higher and banks seem to be continuing to prepare for the rainy day. >> which one are you getting the most questions on from clients? which call are people most interested in or most controversial? >> i think you can see clearly that jpmorgan continues to be, you know, drawing the most interest because if you think about the strength of that net interest income and if you think about what their guidance implies, you know, for the run rate of net interest income for 2024, you know, with, you know,

the puts and takes, they could make above $90 billion just in net interest income in 2024. now jpmorgan downplayed that on the call but they've been downplaying their net income power over the past four quarters and keep beating expectations. where the most questions i'm fielding are on pnc. you can see pnc is under performing the group. their call is happening now or will happen in an hour, and i think management team is probably right to explain what you were saying earlier with those cost cuts actually mean, the layoffs mean for the bottom line. i think the slide wasn't very clear on the release. >> erica, a pretty nice beat across the board in investment banking and commentary about the m&a starting to heat up a bit. do you have big aspirations for what that might look like in the first half of next year? >> not really because i feel that trading seems resilient, but i feel like investment

banking, while there are small green chutes in the pipeline in september and the pipeline is good, i think we're going back to sort of normal is going to be a little bit slower. think about how much uncertainty we just injected into the outlook over the past week, you know, and think about, you know, we're going to start to talk about the election in 2024 pretty soon, and, so i actually think that, while there are green chutes, all those components suggests to me that the recovery in investment banking may not happen until after the election. >> erica, thank you very much for joining us. erica najarian of ubs. >> get to the latest around the israel-hamas war. raf sanchez is live in israel with the latest. a busy day once again. >> reporter: a busy day indeed. israel's military has issued an unprecedented evacuation order

to palestinian civilians in gaza telling them to evacuate the entire northern half of the gaza strip. israel says that region is full of hamas military sites and that israel will be targeting it and they are urging palestinians to move for their own safety, but there are more than a million people who live in northern gaza. it's the most densely populated part of a densely populated area. the united nations is saying there is no way to evacuate that many people without a humanitarian disaster unfolding. remember, gaza is sealed off. the egyptian border is closed, israeli border is closed and mediterranean sea is closed. there is nowhere for them to go. the united nations is pleading with israel to hold back on this threat of large-scale targeting in northern gaza. it's not clear whether israel intends to move in to northern

gaza on the ground at the stroke of midnight, which is the deadline they have given people to evacuate, or if this is going to be a stepped up phase of their already incredibly intense air campaign. people very, very nervous about what will come at midnight, about seven hours from now. hamas early today has said that 13 hostages have been killed by israeli bombing inside of gaza. israel is denying that, saying that they have no indication at all that that is true. nbc news has not been able to independently verify that. just for a moment assuming that it is the case that 13 hostages have died, either murdered by hamas or killed accidentally by israeli bombing, that would be around 10% of the overall 150 or so hostages we believe are being held by hamas. we expect president biden later today will speak to the families of some of the american

hostages. the president has said he will do everything in the power of the u.s. to try to bring them home. defense secretary lloyd austin is here in israel right now. he's the latest member of president biden's cabinet to come to this country. you'll remember the defense secretary before he was in the cabinet was a senior american general. he was in charge a of the war against isis in iraq. he said earlier today, he knows isis, he has fought against isis. the savagery of the acts committed by hamas on saturday in southern israel, eclipse the worst things he saw committed by isis. guys? >> you mentioned that the egyptian border with gaza is closed. why did they close that off? why is that not an option for people to evacuate? >> reporter: it's closed in the sense, a very, very limited number of palestinians with a specific set of authorizations are able to cross through that border. putting it simply, egypt does not want 2 million refugees

flowing from gaza into the sigh my region. egypt would say that as majorly destabilizing and had its own problems in the region with local jihadist groups. they are not opening their borders to gaza. this is not like ukraine, the neighboring regions are welcoming these refugees. >> thank you very much. we'll continue to watch the story closely for you and give you updates. as we head to break our road map for the rest of the hour. microsoft closing its acquisition of activision after a long regulatory road, but the ftc says they will fight the merger and appeals. >> shares of boeing taking a hit after expanding their inspections of the 737 max. we'll talk about what's at stake for the plane maker. >> home building stocks coming off their worst kay in nearly a year as rates pressure housing. other parts of the housing ecosystem hit with many names down 20% from the summer highs.

the stocks you need to watch here. big show still ahead. in. 1 f the highs but up50 pots we'll be right back. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

inflation slowing growth, rising rates front and center, geo politics a rising risk. what does that mean? let's bring in evercore founder roger altman who joins us at post nine. >> carl, thanks for having me. >> your general view, the

sledding is tougher going into year end? >> it's going to be hard for equities to do well for the rest of the year. the step function increase in the put market and the yields are down, treasury yields are playing a safe haven today. interest rates have risen sharply. at the margin makes sense to park money in fixed income in a way it didn't six or 12 months and that's a disincentive to hold equities. monetary policy. we saw yesterday inflation is coming down in a sticky, slow way. cpi at 4.1, super core pce at 4.4. that's a long way from where we need to get to. the thesis on higher for much longer seems on monetary policy, is reinforced. another rate hike? maybe not. i think the cuts are pretty far off.

the economy itself slowly is decelerating. you see that in temporary employment agencies, gasoline futures, housing. most don't think there will be a recession but the economy is slowing some and then, you know, the market is still expensive. forward p/e on the s&p 500 is 17.6 and historical standards that's quite high. the outlook for equities in the medium term is tough. >> we got umich numbers where the one-year expectation goes to 3.8, even as confidence falls. does that smell stagflationary to you? >> i think we are going to win this battle on inflation, next year, second half. no, i don't think we're going to have like 70s, high inflation and low growth. i think inflation will get down there. i think it's going to take longer. >> i think we need to replace hire for longer with high for longer. that's what we're talking about

here. >> we're probably where we're going to be on the funds rate. we'll see. data dependent. i agree, the fed is probably not going to hike in november and probably there won't be additional hikes, although that's debatable. i agree with you. >> this morning, jamie dimon in the statement says this may be most dangerous time the world has seen in decadings and worried about the geopolitical landscape than the economic one right now. are you advising your clients differently when it comes to deals and behaver? >> first of all, jamie is right about that. i think he's probably the best financial service ceo in my lifetime. on geopolitical tensions, they're at a high point. you have war in ukraine with the risk of a wider war, war in israel with the obvious risk of a wider war, whether that's

hezbollah, iran, so forth and then domestically you have paralysis in washington. you have a completely dysfunctional house. people don't realize constitutionally speaking if you don't have a speaker, you cannot -- the house cannot act, so if we had a sudden emergency need to pass legislation, they're either going to find a speaker or you're not going to pass it. >> what do you do when it comes to supporting our allies right now? >> right now you have dysfunction there of a historical level. it's a pretty alarming political and geopolitical environment, jamie dimon is right, and if you're -- by the way, i would add one other thought. howard marks has a theory sea change, we've come to the end of a 15-year period of ultra low interest rates and investors are just beginning to realize that it means lower returns,

different asset allocations and so forth. i find that to be impeccable logic, and you add all that up and say this is a tough environment. why don't i take a little more conservative stance, more fixed income, and that's one of the reasons markets, at least equities will have a hard time. >> on the other hand there's always ai and glp-1 and hopes about elongated life cycles for the human price. >> those are longer term measures and they are positive ones, sure. is the united states ultimately going to still be the strongest economy in the world and outgrow almost everyone else? yes. we're talking about the short term here. i thought for a long time and still think the united states is the best place to be and to invest, but for the next three or four months, i think people are going to be cautious. >> roger, we'll leave it there and pick it up soon. good to see you. thanks for coming in. coming up next, tough words out of ford today saying it's, quote, at the limit of what it

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i'm silvana henao and here's your cnbc news update. israeli defense forces tell nbc news the evacuation of northern gaza must be carried out as soon as possible after dropping leaflets hinting at an upcoming ground invasion and telling residents to evacuate your homes an move south. the u.n. saying it's impossible to evacuate more than a mill been civilians without, quote, devastating humanitarian consequences. tens of thousands of muslims across the middle east took to the streets after morning prayers in support of palestinians after the call from a former hamas leader for today to be a global day of anger. law enforcement agencies aloss the u.s. are stepping up their patrols in jewish communities, but multiple officials tell nbc news while they are monitoring chatter on social media, so far

none of the threats are specific and credible. and president biden expected to speak today with the families of some of the americans believed to be held hostage in gaza. the president told "60 minutes" he wants them to know he cares about them and doing everything he can to get them home. >> thanks. let's get to the uaw strikes today. union president shawn fain speaking this hour. the top executive at ford saying, quote, they're at the limit of what it can offer to get a new deal. our next guest believes uaw president shawn fain may have fueled member expectations so high couple days with the president joining the picket line, it may be difficult to get something ratified. mark, it's good to see you. a lot of interesting dynamics regarding not just the negotiation, but then fain's own relations with members. how do you see things playing out regarding ford specifically? >> well, listen, this is a major

escalation, as is publicly known. this is ford's biggest plant and one of the biggest plants in the u.s. it clearly is an escalation here. i think the uaw's calculus is we're going to hit one of the crown jewels, if you will, of the ford business, but i also think this might be, you know, we might be nearer to the end game here because at the end of the day, i think, you know, the uaw hitting this plant for ford would demonstrate to the rank and file that he is pressing as hard as he can and i think importantly, when you think about how the uaw is thinking about the strike action versus the automakers, ford, gm and stellantis, i think in looking at the business, the uaw is playing, if you will, checkers and the awesome are playing chess. what i mean by that is, the uaw is thinking one contract, which

is four years. listen, they're elected officials and they have to get elected another couple years and show they are making ground. the automakers they're stewards of the business and think five to ten years in advance in making sure they're paying their employees fairly but at the same time not saddling companies with an uncompetitive position versus the nonunion imports. >> fain has begun to speak and we'll monitor that for headlines. facebook live as normal. that was one of the things that the action against the kentucky plant happened without the sort of routine live stream fain has been doing and took a lot of the street by surprise. >> it falls into the strategy as you know, there was a leak from i think the communications director where they wanted, quote, unquote, to deep the d 3 wounded for months, reputational damage, keep them in industrial

chaos and interestingly, they didn't deny that. you have to think about that. kind of think about working with the employers who employee your rank and file and you want to damage them in that way, this fals falls in the construct of keeping the automakers unbalanced. kudos to the automakers saying we're going to fight fire with fire, be more transparent in terms of what's on the table for the rank and file and to your point earlier that's where it's going to make this getting to a tentative agreement and death that ratified, we're in unchartered territory because it's been so transparent and fain has been so transparent in raising the expectations, if you will, it's going to be interesting to see whatever is agreed to, the ability to get that ratified. >> mark, i'm not sure if we're going to stick with you or say goodbye, but we want to get to phil lebeau who can tell us what fain has been saying.

phil? >> he just began, carl, and he said right off the bat this is a new phase of the negotiation with the detroit automakers which requires a new approach and went on to say we will not be announcing new strike targets today. in the future what will happen is what we saw on wednesday with the announced strike at the kentucky plant with ford. fain has said we will stand by ready to announce further strikes as we deem necessary depending on the state of negotiations. there will be no new strikes announced today during this facebook live presentation, but we could see more down the road like we saw on wednesday with ford according to shawn fain. again, in his words it all depends on the progress or lack of progress in the negotiations. carl, i'll send it back to you. >> mark field still with us. thank you, phil. anything surprising there? >> well, no. it fit into the same construct

of, you know, keeping the automakers on their toes. i do think actually it's a good sign. at the end of the day you have to think about within the, you know, strikes are only as good as the solidarity of the workforce, and the longer they have that's targeted walkouts where you have a certain portion of the rank and file at the uaw not getting paid and just getting strike pay, and when you look at the transparency of what's been put on the table by the automakers, you know, these offers that are put on the table if you take them at face value, this would put the autoworkers in the top 25% compensation of all workers in the u.s., whether hourly or salary. for those on strike, they're going to start getting antsy and it will make for interesting conversations over the dinner table saying why are we on strike when a bulk of the other uaw members are not and when are we going to get an offer. >> if you think this is nearing

a tipping point, you mentioned what's at stake earlier in your answers you glossed over, but i want to highlight for the automakers, and for the uaw, for that matter, which is a loss of competitiveness for gm, for ford, for stellantis, against not just the ev makers like tesla but the far end oems as well. do you think that that's the end game here, no matter what happens, because of some of these demands and what they're talking about in terms of increases? >> well, i think at the end of the day for the uaw, sara, as you know, their business model is about membership and growing membership. and if you have a cost structure for the automakers that makes them less competitive over time that's not going to be good for the uaw. >> right. >> on the automakers' side, they're looking at this business saying we have a competitive wage gap now. by paying employees more it's going to widen that. listen, today they can manage that because of the mix of their business. they sell trucks and suvs. i think you have to look back,

whatever this contract is negotiated, the nonunion imports are also going to have to raise their employees' wages. you know, both these things will be moving at the same time. i think the real issue is around the competitiveness, around evs, and, you know, if the awesome are forced into an uncompetitive position they will have to think seriously about resourcing these products to places like mexico to be competitive. >> mark, we'll see. no immediate expansion of the work stoppage. maybe we'll watch the weekend, of course, to see what developments happen. we'll talk soon. thanks. mark fields. >> you bet. >> an important deadline today for crypto investors. bob pisani here with more. [ inaudible ] has until midnight to decide [ inaudible ] what deals [ inaudible ]. >> bob, we don't have your audio but we'll try to get it fixed for you because there is an sec

deadline for crypto that bob will tell us about it. >> holding on to gains here. s&p 4362, did lose ground in materials and industrials in the early part of the session this morning. some of the dow names we're tracking, microsoft closing its acquisition of activision, but the regulatory heat may not be over yet and, of course, boeing, the worst performing name tinhe 30. we'll tell you why after a short break. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash,

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we started out with decent sized gains out of energy and some of the banks, as q3 earnings season begins to heat up. beats across the board from jpmorgan, wells, blackrock, pnc, citi, unh. treasuries we got some dovish comments out of harker but the university of michigan consumer sentiment headlines not that great. above 4.6 where we've been circulating the last couple

days. the key dow names in focus, we mentioned microsoft, activision and boeing too. >> we've got reporters all over it. julia boorstin and phil lebeau with us. julia, on microsoft and the deal, finally closing. >> yeah. well, sara, microsoft closing at $69 billion acquisition of activision blizzard this morning. 19 months after the deal was announced. now after this morning, this all comes after this morning's uk authority approved the deal approving the way for the deal to close. microsoft saying we have crossed the final regulatory hurdle to close this acquisition which we believe will benefit players and the gaming industry worldwide. activision blizzard on "squawk box" speaking to microsoft's concessions to close the deal. >> they've given up a lot, but i think it will encourage competition. this gets back to the willingness of microsoft to

engage and listen and respond appropriately to the concerns of government. >> the cma approval clears a major hurdle off the table there continues to be challenges in the u.s. the ftc reiterating its opposition writing, quote, we remain focused on the federal appeal process, despite microsoft and activision closing their deal in advance of a scheduled december appeals court hearing. microsoft and activision's agreement with ubisoft presents a new facet to the merger that will affect american consumers which the ftc will assess as part of its ongoing add administrative proceeding. back in july a judge blocked the ftc's attempt to stop this deal. that was a key victory for activision blizzard and microsoft in getting this done, but it's clear, carl, sara, that this battle is still not entirely over. >> hard to say mission

accomplished yet. julia boorstin. let's get to boeing, the worst performing stock in the dow right now. we talked to phil lebeau a moment ago on the uaw, but phil has some on what's driving some of the boeing losses. phil? >> it continues to be the problems with the max as they want to increase production and they are moving to increase production and deliveries, they continue to have to do rework and inspections and in this case, they are expanding inspections on the 737 dash 8 versions of the max. these are maxes that are being built in production, not one lrs in service, the target, once again, nonconforming parts of the plane. drill holes in the affidavit pressure bulkhead. these are parts that came from their primary fuselage supplier, spirit aero systems out of wichita, kansas. this is not a flight safety issue. the max models that are in service flying right now, they continue to be in service. they are not impacted by this

issue. as you look at shares of boeing, keep in mind, the focus for wall street is, aside from the inspection, what happens with the delivery guidance on the max this year. the company has said 400 to 450 is the target and said after the second quarter that they were on target to hit that. do they have to modify that when they report their earnings, which is next week? that's when we will find out. they're in a quiet period an not changing their guidance or -- with regard to these expanded inspections. take a look at spirit, as i mentioned, they are the primary supplier on the fuselage for the 737 max. we talked about how many problems there have been at spirit. they replaced their ceo last week and said we got to do better than this. pat shanahan, who at one point in the trump administration i believe he served as the defense secretary, he is a long-time boeing executive prior to that, now the ceo at spirit. they've got their work cut out in wichita to get things corrected because it's a long string of problems that have

been really hampering the 737 max. >> all right. two problem children for you. thank you very much. let's head back to bob pisani with more on that important deadline and the update with crypto with crypto prices rising this morning. >> it's a good time, crunch time for the sec on this. we've been waiting for months. the sec has until midnight tonight to decide if it wants to appeal the d.c. circuit court of appeals ruling that sec was wrong to reject an application from gray skill investments to create an etf. the court ruled the sec had allowed a futures bitcoin etf to trade. that a spot and futures bitcoin were like products so if they approved one, the futures bitcoin, they had to approve the spot. that was essentially what court said. so the sec is allowed to request a rehearing and that's what we're waiting for to see if they will do that. the federal rules of the

appellate procedure states the sec would have to convince the court that they've overlooked or misapprehended the facts in the case. that's going to be tough. the ruling against the sec was unanimous. so it's tough to imagine the sec may come up with new reasons to turn gray scale down that they haven't talked about before. so should they decide not to appeal, they will likely be forced to approve the gray scale application to convert to a spot bitcoin etf. and possibly to approve all other spot bitcoin applications as well. there's at least eight other applicants in line for that including arc's cathie wood. we'll talk with cathie wood monday on "halftime report" at 12:30. we'll talk about bitcoin and where we're at on the application process and tech about a new company she bought in europe. very interesting even though bitcoin is up today, bitcoin and the bitcoin futures etf had been very flatish the last three

months. there's a lot of questions about exactly how much new money this may exactly bring in, given that most people already anticipating the sec is going to allow this in the next few months. sara? >> bob, thank you. bob pisani. we'll mention some of the gains are slipping here. nasdaq has gone red. we'll talk to the cfo next hour. dollar general a ceo change and insurers like progressive. "squawk on the street" will be right back. with you, and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. hi, my name is sam

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let's get to leslie picker with headlines. hey, leslie. >> carl, positive reaction in the market to the bank earnings. that call from wells fargo is ongoing. q&a starting just a short while ago. in his remarks, ceo charlie sharp spoke aboutthe macro cross currents, we're hearing this from the big banks this morning. he noted the economy continues to be resilient, thanks to the labor market and strength in consumer spending. he said the firm's base case remains a continued slowdown in the economy, though, while remaining prepared for scenarios given there's a, quote, significant uncertainty in the markets ahead. scharf noted in the release that loan balances have been declining and chargeoffs continue to deteriorate modestly. wells fargo reported a beat on the top and bottom lines and continued an upward trajectory for net interest income guidance. that metric detailing profitability from loan making was updated to 16% higher from 2023, up from prior guidance of

14% that they laid out earlier this year and then 10% before then. you can continue to see that guidance just increase over the course of the year. now, while expenses did decline in the quarter, guidance on expenses also rose. up by about half a billion dollars. billion dollars. and their cfo said on the call that there are very few parts of the company we'd say are optimized at this point. but he goes on to say that in the budget process they take a very disciplined approach to every single area of the company. so as i was dropping off the call, executives were discussing the recent strategic partnership with center bridge partners to get clients access to alternative sources of capital. that was announced toward the end of the quarter. and we'll hear more from the company cfo who is joining us next hour. >> and in terms of the other names that rts roed today, how would you characterize their optimism regarding investment

banking or m&a? >> yeah, there were some pretty significant upticks in investment banking in the quarter. there have been a few quarters now where we have seen such muted activity. but in the third quarter especially in debt capital markets, that was a significant bright spot. and then we saw some ecm activity pick up as well with the three big ipos. citigroup for example, they were on the flee big deals that we saw in the third quarter including instacart and arm. so they showed a tick up as a result of that. and so the mix is different, but overall investment banking activity did see a significant bright spot. >> we'll see if any of the tepid beginning to the window can fin. what a morning. there is more next week. black rock did report a profit beat. rev news slightly shy with assets under management hit $9.1 trillion. below the 9.4 that they reported

q2. larry fink talked about where he sees yields going. >> we have a better understanding of the texture what is going on in the markets, the etf platform and global network. unquestionably we're seeing the barometer of hope and fear, all the geopolitical issues, we're seeing more fear, more fpeople pulling back. and you are seeing that in the yield curve. it is flattening and that is because, a, people think that we're closer to end of rate hikes, i'm still calling for long rates to be above 5%. i think the numbers of inflation this week really shows the stickiness of it. >> sort of combining his macro view with what he has been seeing and what maybe some of the concern was today around earnings which is that they did see the first outflows in long term investment funds since the pandemic, 2020. explained by sentiment. and also said one big emea

client. >> yeah, worth some 19 billion or something. >> but a pretty positive spin on the long term trajectory for inflows. up next, honing in on the hammered housing stocks. renewed rate hike fears continue to loom. % f s like d.r. horton sitting 20ofthe highs of the year. what investors need to know.

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home building group lower today as higher rates continue to weigh on the space. diana olick is joining us with more. and people are now talking about whether we'll see a double dip in housing. >> yeah, absolutely. this is all about interest rates plain and simple. the 30 year fixed now at 7.65% on mortgage news daily, gown slightly from last week, but still up significantly since the middle of july. and i'm flagging july because that was the last high in the builder stocks. names like sdd.r. horton are do 20%. and also red fin, compass and zillow all down us a the housing market is essentially frozen.

>> the first two weeks of october as anticipated, inventory has taken a jump but because interest rates have taken a jump too, we're seeing more houses but honestly it is anecdotally out here on the streets less fires. a lot of traffic but not a lot of actual shoppers. >> she also told me that some people who had been pre-qualified for a mortgage over the summer no longer qualify at these higher rates. back to you. >> diana, thank you. "squawk on the street" conties teth.snu g for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's yours free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street" live from the new york stoxx. today earnings season kicking off as banks begin to report. wells fargo cfo will be with us. >> and plus nathan sheets calling for a hawkish hold. and we're live on the ground in israel as the idf prepares for a possible ground offensive ordering advantage and i was more than one million civilians from the north in the next 24 hours. but we begin with the market. next guest s