and mocktails and the growth of that. the younger generation -- >> i haven't tried it yet. i don't get the appeal other than if i'm trying to blend in at the party. am i drinking it for the taste? i don't understand. it could be pharmacy staff walking out amid a rally. our labor unrest ain't over, vic victoria. thanks for being here. "closing bell" starts right now. kelly, thanks. i'm scott wapner on this friday live from post 9 at the new york stock exchange. this make-or-break hour with the final stretch of a volatile week. earnings under way about to get busier. new questions about the state of the u.s. economy, the war in the middle east impacting gold and oil markets. your money being pulled in multiple directions as we track every move today as always. here is your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. stocks were doing well, well, until late in the morning when consumer confidence number came in well below estimates.

that was higher than anticipated and that all but nullified the pop that some of the banks gave the market on a series of better than expected reports. jpmorgan and citi have gone negative. bright spots on an otherwise topsy-turvy day. boeing is one of the worst performers today. more issues with the 737 max emerging. that stock down more than 3% as for tech, the biggest loser. every name losing some altitude today. meta one of the worst performers along with nvidia. our "talk of the tape." whether stocks can have a late-year surge or not. two market watchers on two sides of the argument, bmo's brian belski says investors shouldn't fear rising rates and eric johnston argues stocks are going a lot lower. both join me live, as you can see. good to have you both with us. brian belski, you're the bull.

i'll go to you first. this week inflation sticky. consumer confidence is waning. what allows to you remain bullish stocks? >> thanks for having us. we appreciate the opportunity to clarify our stance. we remain bullish. u.s. profits will continue to be strong. i think the move back to u.s. stocks and the stability considering the atrocities in israel shows you once again that. i think what investors need to understand is that rates will be higher for longer. we know that. elevated on this network but i think people don't understand if you look at preglobal financial crisis numbers in terms of risk return, it is at least 300 basis points higher than post the great financial crisis when interest rates are going down. interest rates goes up means the economy is okay.

i think we're missing the boat because we have reared an entire generation that do not understand stocks can go up. further to this you go back in history since 1950, if you look at when the ten-year treasury goes up between 50 and 100 basis points, that is the best return scenario for markets, period. so i think we're too stuck on what the fed is saying or, more importantly, not just powell but fed members, it's clear we're not going to have a recession. we'll have a soft landing. and we're going to get through this. i think the negative rhetoric in the recession talk that's been in place for several months has been misguided. >> there's the bearish view. what's wrong with if it? >> yields are going up for the wrong eason. it's because the economy is

strong. yields go up, economy weakens, yields come down. one of the issues going on right now yields are going up because of two facts, the treasury supply which we've been talking about the last couple of months, is a big deal that will only get worse and the second thing is due to inflation. you have conditions there tightening fairly dramatically. they've moved up 90 basis points. >> rates are down like 25 basis points in a week on the ten year, right? we're at 4.88. 4.62 now. >> yes. still quite elevated. the real yield is up to about 2.3% which is a dramatic shift. oil is up for the wrong reason meaning it's not up because of demand. it's up due to supply issues. that's another headwind right now for the economy. >> oil is lower than where it was. we're producing more oil here than ever before.

>> that's true but is up 30% in the last three months so that's still a shock to the system. and this is all happening -- the dollar has had a big move, tightening conditions. and it's happening as the consumer is tightening. jamie dimon said the consumer savings are declining. citibank this morning said the consumer is decelerating and we're in late cycle. the cycle could be defined as the unemployment rate and the nominal gdp growth we've seen during this recovery has grown by 40%. you're more than halfway through and probably closer to the end. this is all coming together simultaneously while you have valuations that are extremely high. it's not like they're pricing in a slowdown in the economy.

it's a difficult picture and it is just that i think the mideast situation is kind of showing that when you own equities, you are taking risk, and, as a result, you need to have good upside returns in order to justify the risk. there are things that come out of nowhere like this situation. and that upside is not down. >> i'll get back to that in just a second. brian belski, i'm always intrigued in how you can have two people looking at the exact same thing and coming away with so starkly different conclusions where we are. the bullish case, fine, you're entitled to your opinion. what about some of the issues that he does raise? you talked about rate of change

with interest rates. well, we've been here before but we've gone from zero to near 5%. we're talking 500 basis points of change. >> so a couple things, you have to have a buyer and seller. eric and i have two very different clientele. you have to understand that. number three -- >> you both want guys -- you both want -- both of you want people to make money. that's what you get paid to do. >> that's correct. we have different clientele. >> the goal is the same. >> absolutely. and he has his process and i have mine and i'm not going to belittle his process because he's a professional and i'm a professional. let's talk about some of these points. why are valuations three multiple points higher than post financial crisis?

riddle me that? if interest rates went from 0 to 5%, the 0 to 2% was during crisis posttraumatic stress syndrome that we're still going through, by the way. just like eric was referring to when interest rates go up during times of duress, he's talking about the 1970s, which that wasn't normal either. the embargo, the unwind of the vietnam war. that wasn't normal either. i think the whole move is all about the return to normalization. the compound annual growth rate of the stock market since 2020 is 8%. if you go back to the 1950s the cagr is 7%. our view has been very clear. we think we're heading back into normalization.

high single digit earnings growth, we're talking about the '80s and '90s and in between as we sit and worry and argue about process and this clind and near term, long term, too much confusion. >> you brought up a good point around the rate of change. this is an economy that was operating at essentially a zero percent interest rate environment. >> free money. >> free money. you had businesses that part of their model was borrowing at those rates. it's not the absolute level comparing 5% now to 5% 15, 20 years ago. we've gone from the easiest policy that lasted for a very long time, zero percent rates for a lot of 13 years, to all of

a sudden a 20-year high in real yields and nominal yields. if you think commercial real estate, they borrowed, three, four, five years ago at rates, someone who got a car lease, it was based on zero rates, the startup company able to borrow free and now the debt is maturing. corporations, utilities. why have utilities been weak? they've been borrowing at zero. you look at their growth rate going forward, it will get hit because their borrowing costs are increasing. >> brian might say, look, those are all valid points but are known and the same points made by the same people over and over again for many, many months. just as he said waiting for the recession and apocalypse based on the issues you bring haven't happened yet because the economy

can withstand some of that. many of the most dire projections about every single thing hasn't really happened. >> i would say equity returns the last two years have been terrible. if you look at money market rate you're getting 5%. the s&p is down from january of 2022. if you look at small cap, small cap has been a disaster in terms of returns when you compare it to inflation, compare to money market yields. >> no one is suggesting that equity returns were great. let's stay on the rate of change, zero to raise it by 525 basis points in 14 months, obviously you'll have a reset of expectations of equity returns. but the predictions of the most dire fallout from all of that hasn't materialized.

>> the story is not over yet. we just got to 5.5% four months ago, the ten-year yield hitting new high now. excess savings are the lowest they've been. so the story is not over. and i think this is all happening at a time where the consumer is getting very vulnerable. my premise has been the lack of upside in the market. based on where we are, what the head winds are and the not great returns. you have plenty of down side and so many other places you can be to earn a return and take less risk. >> the bulls -- i hear eric saying clearly the bulls are too quick to say we're good because

we haven't had a recession so far. so we're going to be good. completely ignoring the lag effects that have really yet to happen, looking at metrics that are more backward than forward, the consumer will hang in there when there are clear indications the consumer is becoming stressed, if they're not already there. how do you respond to that? >> you've heard me say this 1,000 times. stocks lead earnings which leads the economy. down 25%, we will have some sort of a slowdown in earnings. we saw that and, oh, by the way, again, we are coming out of this zero interest rate environment which is not normal. we had covid. that was not normal. what will happen, we don't need a recession. in the market -- i think too many people are trying to make a

market call and forgot the stock market is a market of stocks and the economy is a bunch of companies. we don't think we're going to see negative contraction two quarters in a row. we may see a zero quarter and that looks like it will be modeled out but we don't see that happening. that's looking forward, not back. that's what investing is all about. >> what i think is interesting, too, eric, while you are bearish and articulated to our viewers why you hold that view, you acknowledge there are bullish dynamics in the short term that could -- i asked the question at the top of the program about this idea a run into the end of the year. do you think that's possible even as bearish as you sound? >> i'm very respectful of that. if you look at institutional positioning, it has declined a lot on that move lower. institutions and systemic funds sold and the investor did not go along.

institutional positioning right now is somewhat underweight or short depending on which category you're talking about. you do have the fourth quarter seasonals which are strong. i happen to think that is going to be overwhelmed by the fundamental backdrop and i believe it will be overwhelmed by the fundamental backdrop. but i am respectful over the next couple months, you know, could you get some sort of technical rally? it's possible. i'm not betting on it. if we did have strength in the next month or two it wouldn't be the fundamental theory. if i knew nothing else the market would go up. >> don't you consider earnings living up to elevated

expectations is a reason why stocks would go up? >> i think this quarter the earnings will be fine and i think that guidance will probably be okay. i think that will be a problem because i think 12% growth are too high considering the outlook for the economy. are we going to see that during this earnings season for the fourth quarter? you won't get as much '24 guidance. it will be fourth quarter guidance which probably won't be a big driver in, i would say, either direction. >> brian, that's what it will come down to, right? earnings. and whether earnings are too high. you don't think they're too elevated? >> no. in fact, let's say if you go back in history and look at an average fourth quarter rally, that would add on to where we

are now. i would call it a good year. number two on the earnings side, again, if you look at earnings revisions they bottomed out three months ago and the 2024 number has been coming up and being improving because a lot of the negativity, quite frankly, and the financials drove those earnings lower were in areas like health care and industrials but technology, so i think that earnings are going to be stable, not gangbusters. and, again, a pretty good environment for stocks especially if and when we start to see this escalator down in inflation which is just common sense. it's already happening. now it's just a matter of it actually unfolding. >> larry fink was on our network of black rock, and he tries to be more optimistic than not and he was suggesting inflation will

be higher for longer. it's proving to be that and long rates above 5%. let's say he's right. are you going to be wrong? >> we'll be wrong if we're above 5% for a prolonged period. i think the situation with a lot of the ceos -- god bless them, they're wonderful -- they want to underpromise and overdeliver. mr. dimon didn't do anything different talking about the banking crisis and two weeks later. >> anything that's in a fly in the ointment of your thesis, a caveat of, well, their strategies are different or their clients are different. he's ceo, so what is he going to say? the things he brings up, he being mr. fink, are, in some respects, reality of where we

are. this week ppi, cpi hotter than expected. obviously parts of inflation have come down a lot. certain parts are sticky. rates are still elevated, right? >> they are elevated. talking about the change in terms of how they account for medical expenses was a surprise. the month over month change in oil, it's up 30%. it is not up 30% october versus september. and we're going to start to see more supply which has been our call. i'm not belittling any ceos. we have seen a change of north

american companies underpromising and overdelivering on their earnings and outlooks. this is a secular trend trech in place. >> i think we have to wrap it up. i think we have to -- >> two quick points. the super core month over montreal time is 7.6% annualized. so today inflation is remaining sticky. you have to ask yourself the multiple is at a 20 year high. is that going to go higher or lower? the economy with all the head winds going to get better or worse and earnings estimates up 12% for next year going to get

better or worse? estimates will be 12%, i think it's a very tough way to own equities. >> we're not going to wrap it up quite yet. you say in your notes almost every sector faces significant headwinds including tech. as long as tech delivers, just like from the beginning of the year, the market will be just fine. >> mega cap does not face those head winds. if you go through every sector, home builders -- >> there is a belief as long as mega cap delivers, none of the other sectors you're talking about matter just like they didn't really matter for the better part of this year thus far. that's why the major averages have had the year they've had.

>> mega cap tech has very good secular trends. if the economy rolls over, their earnings are going to get hit but will get hit a lot less than the rest of the market. especially with what's going on with every sector. where i think people are not respecting the risk with them is if we have an economic downturn that could offset the growth. >> belski, you get the last word since we restarted it. what about tech? be quick, though. >> i'm confused by the math. the industries and the sectors mentioned, the three don't even add up to apple. these are names that have massively great balance sheets, great cash flow and consistent earnings and they will go through this storm okay. >> i appreciate it.

we'll see you soon. brian belski, eric johnston, thanks to you as well. our "question of the day," who do you think is right, bulls like brian belski, bears like eric johnston. head to x to vote. results later on in the hour. some top stocks to watch. hey, pippa. dollar general is higher as investors cheer the return of its former ceo. gordon haskett upgrading to buy with $140 to share. they say they can improve dollar general's business even in the face of giant competitors like walmart. and progressive is at an all-time high after expectations in the third quarter. earnings came in well ahead of estimates alongside the slight revenue beat. net premiums rose which was ahead of the street's consensus. those shares up 8%. up next the case for

caution. tiaa's kourtney gibson will settle the debate. while you're voting, we'll talk to kourtney gibson and who she thinks is right, the bull or the bear in the market.

ever since she was a little ki, all maría wanted to do was bak. i'm maría alvarez, owner of maría's cakes. and i'm axel, proud to be her state farm agent. her baking superpowers have brought sweetness to our community. i make delicious cakes to make special occasions even better. maría doesn't just bake; she also creates opportunities. small businesses like maría's, open doors for communities to thrive. support your community.

support small business. since my citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise] nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing.

yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "closing bell." after a weaker consumer sentiment and higher inflation

outweighed strong earnings from the banks, our next guest says investors should expect more volatility ahead. let's bring in kourtney gibson of tiaa. so good to see you, welcome back. >> thank you. >> let's settle this. we just had a bull/bear debate, and a good one at that. great points made on both sides. >> the answer to that, scott, i am always going to be cautiously optimistic in a time like this. longer term, and you know i tend to be much more of a buy and hold investors for our retirement business, we talk about the importance of being a long-term holder. i think the short term we know

will be volatile. we heard from jamie. i think you had larry fink on is what i heard. we know this will be a tumultuous time. what does that portfolio look like? are you staying diversified? are you sticking to your knitting when you think about where your asset allocations should be? and how are you ensuring income is part of that overall portfolio for the long term? >> i'm looking at things you've done recently which i guess would suggest a more cautious view. so you're putting your money where your mouth is. coca-cola a staple stock that had gotten hit well. staples got a nice boost and coca-cola did as well. but target, too, is interesting to me. just given what we've talked about with the consumer, the degree of strength they either have or don't. how would you address both stocks? >> they were both holdings i had in my portfolio.

when you think about coke, we're in this interesting place, growth and value kind of situation is blending a bit here. when you think about coke and what i said around strong cash flows and margin, like income, coke is dominant in its position. from a defense perspective, lean in to strength and lean in to the number one player in the global market. they have free cash flow and it was trading at lows. so for my perspective i said this is a good time to add to my position. target, i promise that's not what's driving but, again, free cash flows. think about the partnerships they're forming as it relates to starbucks. you couple those two together and what are you doing? you're trying to insulate the brand, drive the consumer to spend.

get them to come in for a latte, they pick up toilet paper, makeup that might be on the shelves. both of those for me were names that over the last several weeks plummeted into the market, and i felt it was a fantastic time to add to my portfolio. >> i want to come back to where we started. i understand the constituents you speak to and with and how you have to think about the market, but if i say, well, rates are up, i get it, they're coming down a bit, the economy is strong, earnings will be good. as brian belski was making the case, the thesis has played out. how do you respond to that by, you know, thinking that -- do you think the market is too expensive based on those things i just brought up? >> in some cases have to cap up to valuations.

again, as you talk about the longer term and having a more high-quality tilt to a portfolio, making sure that you're fully diversified, you're going to be able to, if you can, and, again, time is your friend in a situation like this. if you have the time, you wait it out. what we're doing at tiaa in particular, we are recommending to our clients this is not the time to get scared, not the time to be fearful in the market. with the vix somewhere around 20. i know it was inching towards it, it's geopolitical issues, it's national security concerns, even here. that makes the market scared. that does not mean you deviate from where you believe your portfolio should be. maybe, again, like i did as you think about the last several weeks this is a time to lean in more, a time to add to conviction but it's not a time to pull money out of the markets or even when you think about your retirement. it's not time to say i will go

to straight cash. one more thing, clearly this is a time where the human spirit has to come alive. we need to stay close to our loved ones, we need to be very thoughtful and mindful of humanity right now. from our portfolio perspective, this is also a time to think about capital expenditures. this is not a time to think about what am i doing today, the long-term implications of these issues provide for investment opportunities, scott. >> good to see you. we'll see you soon, kourtney gibson of tiaa. you be well. up next, john spallanzani is back and how he is managing all of those market risks. what might be in store for the fed as we head into the back end of the year after this break.

in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. ♪ my name is josh sanabria and i am the owner at isla veterinary boutique hospital. i was 5...6 years of age and i knew i was going to be a vet. once alexandra called me to let me know that bank of america had approved my loan...

it was important to me. we not only just provide the financing piece, we do everything that we can to surround them with the right people. all you need is a perfect, amazing team that will guide you through the right steps to be successful. and that's what bank of america was for me. with your hearing, if you start having a little trouble, you're concerned that it's going to cost you money. to this day i only paid what i had to pay for the device... when i go back everything is covered. there's so much you're missing by not having hearing aids. (♪♪) we'll find you a hearing aid that fits your lifestyle and budget. unlock your risk-free trial during our limited-time sounds of autumn event. call 1-800-miracle to book your appointment today.

here in hawaii there is always time. there's time to spend with family, time to enjoy with friends. there's always time to listen or lend a helping hand. here we have all the time in the world, but no time to waste.

we are back. the nasdaq leading the major averages lower today down more than 1%. amazon one of the biggest losers, down 2%. let's bring in john spallanzani of the miller family office. welcome back. >> thanks, scott. >> i'm looking at our "closing bell" scoreboard right now. cautious/bearish 2, bullish 1. what side do you come down on? are we going up 3-1 or even it out with you? >> at the close? >> are you bullish? >> i think we're neutral. we had a lot of people talking -- >> that's the nonneutral zone. are you more positive on the market or not? >> yes, positive, always positive. we're optimistic and think the market goes up 70% of the time. no sense fighting the market or the fed. >> be realistic for me. >> we had an 8% correction not too long ago. we had a taylor swift moment

where we were shaking everything off, a bad unemployment report, and shook that off. everybody thought that was the end. had bad ppi, shook that off. claims were still pretty strong, shook that off. we had two bad auctions, shook that off. we have this geopolitical risk now which is the future is now unknowable, but what it does, it ramps up the uncertainty for the fed. so as much as you want to say -- not you personally but as much as people want to say higher for longer, all this stuff, the fed is the lender of last resort so god forbid something escalates, we have a war in ukraine, russia, and now we have a war in the middle east. how that is going to play out is high level geopolitical chess. >> in other words the fed put much talked about is still here. >> still here. >> that's the case you're making. >> the fed is stronger when you go from zero to 5%, 5.25. >> the likelihood of something

breaking that they need to fix like the regional banks. >> regional banks broke. the market bottomed after the bank of england, ldi pension blowup, this is the first time in response to a crisis such as the regional bank failures that the fed actually tightened afterwards. past crises they've eased. they've stuck to their guns and then got a little bit nervous the last few weeks, it seems like. that was before the invasion into israel, obviously, and we see oil is going up. there's a flight to safety into bonds. the market is off because we don't know what will happen this weekend. >> i got you. >> right now the fed is kind of watching all these events closely. >> let's go to one particular stock in which mr. miller of the miller family office has become synonymous with, amazon. one of your largest positions. >> and bitcoin. >> let's talk amazon. >> bitcoin is one of the best performers this year. >> let's talk amazon.

i think it's more relevant to more people and to the market maybe. >> yes. >> it's down 10% over the last month. what's up with the mega caps? still feel good? >> i think we still feel good. again, it's where you're going to put your money. bonds have had the biggest drawdown. the p/e is 21 times. the p/e ex-faang is 15. the p/e on high yield is 11. cash is 5. but we don't know how long you can do 5 for. 5 for the next three months, you might not get 5 for the next three years because when they ease, they don't ease in 25-point increments. in order to re-establish the curve, they will need to cut at a minimum, and when the 10s are higher -- when fed funds are higher than the 10s, going back to 1970, that's the peak in rates. >> so if mega cap earnings come in good enough, is that enough for the stock market to take off between now and the end of the

year? >> i think right now the market is focused on what's happening in the middle east. earnings we can't really worry about earnings right now when we could have oil at $100. we don't know if this will escalate. >> the market, it's astonishing in its own right, that this all happened or started to unfold last weekend. the market hardly budged. >> it shook it off. taylor swift, right? >> still super focused on it. but why hasn't it had more of a negative reaction? >> well, because it was so oversold going into that employment report, the stocks above the 20-day moving average were about 10. above the 50-week moving average, about 38% of the stocks above the 50 week. we were really oversold going into that number and i spoke to a dear friend over at omega about this before the print. i said, listen, regardless of the print, the market will go

higher because positioning was so bad. it was so bearish in bonds you had jamie dimon saying 7%, bill ackman saying 7%. you said larry fink also in the 7% camp. who does that help the most? that helps jpmorgan, black rock and those guys the most. bank of america is sub 27. that stock is trading bad because they were not prepared for this higher rates going from 0 to 5% and they have all these unrealized losses market to market pretty bad. those are the things we face. we haven't mentioned student loans that are coming due, we haven't mentioned commercial real estate that's coming due. there are a lot of resets. that will put pressure on the fed more likely, as they stated, lorie logan, people down the list, listen, we know we've done a lot and there's a lot left in the pipeline we haven't felt

yet. >> okay. we'll leave it there. i appreciate you coming back. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers into the close. pippa stevens is back with that. the details of boeing coming up next. ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style.

endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins. and... new gold bond healing sensitive. clinically shown to heal & moisturize dry, sensitive skin. gold bond.

we're less than 15 away from the closing bell. to pippa stevens and the key stocks she is watching. boeing is under pressure after saying it will expand the scope of its ongoing inspection into a production defect on its 737 max 8 model. the problem was first identified in august and involves parts from its supplier, spirit aero systems. both stocks are lower today. and chip makers are mostly in negative territory with the smh semy etf now trading along the flat line for the week. nxp, marvell among the biggest decliners. applied materials and lam research firmly in the red even as both stocks were upgraded to buy. reuters reporting starboard value bought shares of newscorp. getting a little pop on that news. >> pippa, thank you. the last chance to weigh in on our "question of the day." do you think the bulls or the bears are right?

vote @cnbcclosing bell on x. some things are good to know. like...where to find the cheapest gas in town. and which supermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. something else that's good to know? if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get more healthcare benefits - through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area - and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage in one convenient plan. from humana, a company with over 60 years of experience in the healthcare industry. you'll have lots of doctors and specialists to choose from. and, if you have medicare and

medicaid, a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan can give you other important benefits. all of these plans include coverage for dental - with two free cleanings a year. plus fillings and a yearly exam. vision - including eye exams and a yearly allowance for eyewear. and hearing benefits - including routine hearing exams and coverage for hearing aids. plus an allowance to help pay for essentials... like eligible groceries, utilities, and rent. even over-the-counter items. and whatever you don't spend gets carried over to the next month. best of all, you'll pay nothing for covered prescriptions, all year long, even the brand-name ones; and zero dollars for routine vaccines, including shingles, at in-network retail pharmacies. so if you have medicare and medicaid, call now to see if there's a plan in your area that could give you extra benefits, including coverage for prescription drugs. plus dental, vision

and hearing. and more. a knowledgeable, licensed humana sales agent will walk you through your options. and, if you're eligible, and there's a plan in your area, help you enroll over the phone. call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. ♪ ♪ wake up, gotta go! c'mon, c'mon. -gracie, c'mon. let's go! guys, c'mon! mom, c'mon! mia! [ engine revving ] ♪ ♪ my favorite color is... because, it's like a family thing! [ engine revving ] ♪ ♪ made it! mom! leave running behind, behind. the new turbocharged volkswagen atlas. does life beautifully.

let's get the results of our "question of the day." who do you think is right on the market? it's close with the bulls winning by just a small margin, and it is close. by the way, a reminder monday i will be live at the case alternative investment summit talking to the biggest names in that space including a rare and exclusive interview with todd boehly on "closing bell." he rarely does anything. mr. boehly part owner of the lakers, the dodgers, premier

league's chelsea as well, and has unique insight into the market, the economy and where he is finding the best opportunities right now. we'll share that with you monday from los angeles. up next, netflix. the stock slipping. ene 's weighing on that name wh wtake you insight the market zone. there's challenges, and i love overcoming challenges. ♪ when better money habits® content first started coming out, it expanded what i could do for

special olympics athletes with developmental needs. thousands of bank of america employees like scott spend countless hours volunteering to teach people how to reach their financial goals. it felt good. it felt like i could take on the whole world.

power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. time for the closing bell macro zone. the must-see charts with stocks under pressure again. julia boorstin why one

downgraded netflix. jeff, to you first, what should we be paying the closest attention to as we approach the close here? >> cyclicals versus defensives. they've outperformed even in this little correction we've had and taking away from the trade where there was no alternative to there is an alternative. you're seeing these defensive names under pressure at a point you would not expect them to be. i think that's a testament to what yields are doing to this market. >> we'll talk to you soon. julia boorstin, a tough week for netflix. earnings next week. size it all up for us. >> well, scott, netflix shares down nearly 2% today off 7% in the past week and a downgrade saying today, quote, netflix is

on course to build a massive advertising business, we have rising concern about the growth forecast. slow adoption of the ad-supported service and a lack of compelling data on subscriber growth. major concerns about the password sharing crackdown failing to convert a large percentage of that base to paying accounts. paid sharing and its impact on subscribers along with the new ad business will be in focus wednesday after the bell. >> that's julia boorstin. bob, an interesting day. it looked like it would be a good one until that consumer sentiment number came out that sort of reset the game on this friday. >> it was heartbreaking. we had such a nice rally going and then the numbers came out, consumer confidence below expectations, expectations for

inflation higher than people thought. the market really is still worried about inflation because it moves interest rates. we saw the vix go from 17 to 20. that's a very unusual move, and we saw -- we lost 60 points in the s&p 500. we lost all the steam at 10:00. the around just came out of the market. that's a very unusual move, 17 to 20. look how the air came right out of the market. two things make me optimistic. number one, we're finally getting out of the seasonally weak period of the year getting into the second hatch of october. it will get better. the fourth quarter better traditionally the quarter before an election year always usually the strong side, number one. number two, look at these earnings numbers, scott. i have 32 companies reporting, two misses. 90% are beating. they're beating by 8% on average. 13% earnings growth for the 32

companies including good numbers from jpmorgan today. i keep waiting, you and i for a year have been waiting for this earnings recession that is never coming. there's no collapse in earnings expectations. the numbers are going up for the third quarter and the fourth quarter. i want to see regional banks next week. we're a little worried here, the concerns about commercial real estate but overall we keep waiting for companies to adopt an expectation the consumer is falling apart. >> bob, the thought was maybe the banks would tell a tough story and you'll get out of the gates slowly. let's see what happens. we'll get busier next week. we have less than 30 seconds. >> the regional banks have a different profile, the jpmorgan

and citi and wells fargo. look at that etf that's underperforming for a while. it's a separate concern. >> a mixed picture. see you on the other side. to "ot" with brian sullivan. >> thank you, scott. that is the scorecard on wall street. welcome to "closing bell overtime." i am brian sullivan. morgan, jon, mike are all ut. somebody alert the authorities. let's dive in. a big day, jpmorgan, wells fargo, citigroup, money on strong earnings. what those three could mean for other banks next week. it is not just