there's been a lot of health sector news with the glp-1s, the weight loss drugs and everything else, so, how are those hospital procedures ramping. >> yeah. supply chain for them, too, formula was such an issue with that company and others. meantime, we did have a late-day rebound for the averages with the dow actually finishing slightly higher. that's going to do it for us at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. the big splurge. seems like nothing can stop the american shopping spree. not rising rates, inflation, or instability around the world. how will the markets and the fed deal with this very confident consumer? we'll debate. plus, semi slump. the sector getting hit as the biden administration announces new export restrictions on a.i. chips to china. and later, stream interrupted. shares of netflix falling hard over the last three months.

will earnings tomorrow remove the chill on the stock? the options action on that straight ahead. i'm courtney reagan in this evening for melissa lee. on the desk tonight, on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, bonawyn eison and our guest trader. we've heard from so many ceos about how spending is buckling, but the data is telling a different story. retail sales last month jumping 0.7%. almost half a percent above estimates. retail stocks ripping for the second straight day. the strength coming even as yields continue to rise. the ten-year getting back to the highs hit last week, takes yields back to severals not seen in nearly 17 years. so, how do we go from a tapped out consumer and a market gasping for air, from painful rates, to this? tim, it's pretty unbelievable. when i see the retail sales data, i know it's lagging, i know it's a little imperfect when it comes to a survey, but

it's what we have right now and it was way stronger than expected. >> great to have you here. great to have stuart here. and my view is, first of all, the consumer with a job is proving to be much more resilient. what's striking about this number is, if you look at the retail sales, the control factor, essentially, element of this number, this is on pace for a 6% gdp third quarter. nobody called for this. and so, if you think about, you know, powell is going to speak tomorrow, there's going to be other fed speak. the fed, we know, is not just concerned, i mean, the fed is well aware of the resiliency. we've talked about this. every number we get, jobless claims or a more backward looking payroll number tells you there's been zero weakness in this job market. retail stocks, meanwhile, if you look at the xrt, which i don't think is a great barometer. outside walmart, the dollar gen, the dollar tree, look at target, apparel and discretionary, retail's been bombed out. if you think about it, it's

not -- look at the markets and markets might even make some new highs between now and year end, but retail sales have been one of the dynamics that have given you some sense that the consumer is in a better place than we think. so, i look at ten-year -- this is a closing high on the ten-year today. so, 4.83, the fact that the ten-year sold off a point and you had equities hold serve tells you there are markets of the market that are way overdone to the downside. >> karen, you are invested in a lot of consumer names. when you look at retail sales, does it give you confidence, do you look at it and have some question marks, i mean, how do you square all this, with all these pressures we're facing? >> right. we were talking in the green room, does it give me confidence -- it doesn't give me great confidence in the numbers, to be that far off. i hope they're right. that would be good. to tim's point, the space really has been bombed out. so, this is very contradictory to what investors are expecting. i don't know if, you know, as

the quarter went on, we did see gas prices start to fall meaningfully. we know that when gas prices go up, that hurts the consumer, and so that's a little bit of a benefit. the rest, i can't exactly explain, except for, they have jobs. and sticky wages, maybe it's not -- you know, still inflating wages, just the rate of inflation is slower. >> joobs definitely seems to be the key. bonawyn, there was a survey out today talking about consumer spending and what they were planning to do come holidays. yes, that is some time off, but of the consumer survey, the survey showed 17% had student loans that were resuming these payments, but less than half of them were actually going to change their spending habits as a result of that. which surprised me. >> yeah, although, i think the surveys are a bit tricky. it's like, what are people saying versus what are people doing? >> fair. >> and i think it's a bit more sparse than we're giving credit to. you look at electronics and

clothing, those are actually down just shy of a percent. those, to me, are -- i would think there would be a lot more confidence when you're spending on those type of goods, particularly on the electronics, because that's a bit more -- not durable, but a lasting type of good. you look at some of the, like, higher end retailers, rh, lvmh, those shares have traded down. so, i think there are still some concerns and headwinds there. we had gotten so negative, and the two previous panels have spoken to it, but the stocks have gotten overdone, because we had taken the expectations down so much. with that said, the equity price we're paying now is a forward-looking metric, so, if you don't think that there's headwinds facing the consumer coming down, we mentioned delinquencies, uptick in credit card balances, we mentioned uptick in rates. all of those things are headwind for the consumer. and the consumer has some leverage in terms of uaw and teamsters, but at some point, that is going to come to an end. when that happens, i don't want to be in this sector of the

market. >> perhaps we're all skeptical of the markets. what is citi's view, when you are trying to square up what's happening with equities, too? >> largely agree with the views around the table. the market was trying to pretrade the weakness in the economy and they've gotten frustrated. if i take a step back and i'm a worker, i see jobs are plentiful and i see, you know, my peers getting raises, or fighting for them, and those things are going to give me confidence that i can find a job and that may wage growth is going to be positive. so, i think that's what you're seeing in the data. our credit card spending data looks weak. it looks weak below the surface, but it's just not realized in the government economic data, so, you know, if you're worried about the u.s. economy, the consumer is where we need to see the weakness, and as long as that payroll data stays strong, our view is, you can run long equities. and the fact is, that's happened. and this was a positive revision to the previous month, as well. this wasn't just a beat, it was a beat and a raise, so to speak.

from our perspective, the growth data remains solid, and you can continue to run long equity risk. >> can i ask him -- >> you're the boss. >> go for it. >> when you look at your data versus the data, how confident are your data being closer to what's happening than the government? >> it's a great question, because a lot of third party providers have data that shows weakness or strength that isn't reflected in the government data. i think on an average basis, let's say a three-month moving average basis, you would expect the credit card data to tighten up to the government data. we were expecting a much weaker print today. retail sales, than we got. that means our data is not indicative or retail sales are going to come back to us. so, you know, we have confidence that, you know, we have a lot of credit cards out there and we have a very guy view on the spending that is there, so, we're a little concerned about where the consumer is going, without a doubt. >> when you look at the weaker parts in the report, tim, and you see appliances, electronic spending, that's lower, a company like a home depot or a

lowe's, they will try to say, it's not does cession their if you're going to buy a washing machine. if it breaks, you have to wbuy it. so many people went through replacement cycles. are you buying into that? >> i am buying into if it breaks, you buy. appliances, how did they get to be disposable. i feel awful about this, but it does seem to be cheaper to buy a new one. again, i would look at the breakdown of where the consumer's shown signs of weakness -- look, we know this from a target, we know this from a walmart, we know this from amazon, that the mix in terms of discretionary spend has moved more towards services, more towards experiences, more towards restaurants. the restaurant numbers in here, restaurants and bars were very strong. >> up more than 9% for the year, i think. >> yeah. and meanwhile, you would think that restaurants are getting hit everywhere. we hear about the wage increases at minimum wage, fastfood in california, that's going national, folks. the dynamic around where you --

look, i think discretionary, and i continue, you know, as a guy that was short nike for awhile, i covered that, i've been short lulu for the last six weeks. i don't think the multiples here are warranted. that's the big thing. but then i look at other parts of the consumer, and look at what's happened to staples. i'm not talking about -- i'm talking about things that buy and you'd think they'd be giving some ground, but these are down 20% to 30%. so, i just -- back to this market, retail sales from the middle of august, when rates started to shoot up, the xrt is not the barometer, but it's what we're talking about today. over the last three days, you've had a massive move. things like children's place and dick's sporting goods, and macy's, i mean, these are things that have been destroyed and i think that's part of what today's move feelings like. >> fair enough. i think it's worth bringing up,

one of the stronger reports, up 1.1%, so, that's online. let's bring in steve liesman. steve, we talked about this earlier today, how does a fed handle this consumer, seemingly unstoppable, as rates keep rising? maybe they're not moving because it's expensive to do so, but they are still buying everything else. >> well, i think the word we keep hearing from the fed is patience. there's a couple camps at the fed. there's a smaller camp of folks who say for sure we want a hike, there's another camp of folks who say, i could hike, but right now, i want to take some time to -- too look at the data and be patient about it, and a third camp that says, we're there, we're at the peak rate right now. and i think the data is going to dictate where the fed ultimatery ends up. and by that, i mean, if this strength continues, which is no guarantee it will, i want to offer some support to those who said, you know what, this data is, indeed, subject to revisions -- the trouble with it is, we've had several months now

of really strong consumer data, so, even if it is revised downward, i doubt all of the strength, the surprising strength, is going to be revised away. so, what the market has done is essentially take out a hedge on another fed rate hike, but push that hedge ahead. and so, what you see is that not much of a bet on a rate hike in november. a bit more in december, and now, the new thing, courtney, is that january is now in place. you look at that probability, it's about 50%, it's been a bit higher as the day has gone by, 51%, 52%, and that's a new thing. people had not really thought about the idea that there would be a rate hike in jeanneanuary. they were thinking, if they didn't do it this year, they'd be done. the interesting aspect is, they push ahead when they think cuts will come in. it used tojun be june, may, now it's july. the effective tool to think about here is really the fed holding, and i guess i said this

20 years ago when i was covering gr greenspan, but neutral is a gear for the fed. staying high is doing something, as harker recently said. so, i think that's how they react. be patient right now, and then, if they get the strength of the economy with the fall of inflation, i think they're going to hold, but if the strength continues and it shows up in inflation, maybe you have to think about the fed hiking again. >> the inflation is so interesting, but it's something consumers have been dealing with for so long. maybe it's getting better in some areas, but really just taking it in stride. it seems like jobs are the key for consumers, and as long as they have a job, they're feeling confident enough to spend what they need to spend. do you think that that's true, as well? i mean, does job trump ininflation? >> i think that's true, and i would add to that two other aspects. one is that they underestimated the amount of pandemic savings. we know that, because the government revised that higher.

and i think they overestimated how quickly it would be gone and its importance. i don't know about anybody else on the -- on the panel there, but if i had a buck for every time somebody told me that the pandemic savings were run out and the consumer was about to crash, i'd have a few bucks in my pocket right now. that has been the prevailing view, and it's caused me and a lot of people on the street, courtney, to continuously revise up not just this quarter or the current quarter, but the next quarter, and that's something that's going to happen, i think, in the next couple days. you look at the weekend friday reports that come out from the forecasters, and they're going to say, you know what? i don't think the fourth quarter is a 1% quarter, and i can go back and show you the number of times that over the past year, everybody thought the next quarter was going to be a zero, or a 0.5 or a 0.3. but that, in fact, the quarter we're in now, that the atlanta fed says is a 5.4% quarter, we

began in our rapid update as a 0.3% quarter. you talk about a revision and a surprise. and getting to a point, i think, that tim made earlier, look at the ten-year note, and when you look at it, and you go back to mid-july, it was the july 18th retail sales report for the month of june that fired up this whole rise in rates. so, people say it was issuance, yes, it was, but ultimately, it was also substantially a rethink of the growth path of the u.s. economy, and how high and how long the fed was going to have rates at the current level that caused the rethink and for bond yields to shoot higher. >> so many surprises in the last couple months here and of course today with this number. steve, thank you for joining us here tonight. we're going to keep talking about this again, talk about the fed's major consumer challenge. we're going to bring in paul mcculley. he teaches at georgetown's school of business. thank you for being here with

us, paul. you heard steve, so, let me just give you an open floor to get started what do you think about what we heard today about the consumer and if that changes anything that we're going to hear from the commit evetee at next meeting, or what we hear from powell thursdaywhen he speaks? >> it's hard to disagree with what my friend steve just said. the consumer is strong. period. we can have a discussion about why and where for, i think jobs and the fact that we have so many households locked into wonderfully low interest rates, the one-two punch for the consumer. but the standpoint where the fed is, i think president harker from philadelphia put it really nicely when he said that the fed can do nothing but doing nothing is doing something. and that's not just a riddle. i think it is reality, because we've had an inverted yield curve for the last year. which is the marketplace

persistently saying, yeah, the fed may have more to go, but then they're going to ease quickly on the other side. and i think what we're doing right now is reversing the easing on the other side. so, the fed being on hold resolutely. not hiking, not cutting effectively is giving us a bear resloping of the yield curve, a bear disinversion. >> professor paul, it's tim seymour. you were my first economist on wall street back in the day, i remember it fondly. you say in your notes that the economy is showing the contours of a soft landing and yet again, retail sales today don't show any landing at all. can you explain the parts of the economy that you are concerned about or at least do seem to be decelerating? >> i think when you look at the retail sales in isolation, you could say no landing, but when you're looking at the overall

mosaic of data, i think we are seeing a landing or a normalization, if you will, post the pandemic. and most importantly, we've seen the supply side of the economy respond. both from a standpoint of bottlenecks, but also the labor force participation rate, so, we're seeing that normalization chl can also be called a soft landing, and also, i think, it's important to note that we're seeing disinflation in wages, and that's a key part of the soft landing story. what we're not seeing is a sharp deceleration in job growth. so, people may not be getting outside raises, but they're getting jobs and keeping jobs, and i think that is the sturdy portion of our economy, and there's every reason to expect it to continue sturdy. it will decelerate, but nothing precipitous. i think that's one of the things that we in the marketplace

really have to get our arms around is, there's not going to be a precipitous slowdown. it's going to be incremental. >> paul, you said earlier doing nothing is dog soming something. do you believe an increase will happen in january, or are you talking about doing nothing now, later? what's the possibility? >> i don't think it's going to happen in january, i do think that the fed is going to be on hold in a couple weeks time. and when i refer to doing nothing, we have a 5 3/8 fed funds rate. that's the policy rate. just keeping it there will tend to pull up the entire yield curve. you saw that in the two-year, it's closing in on five and a quarter, but that's still below.

so, i think if the data flow suggests that the fed quote unquote should tighten again in january, the marketplace will front-run that in a nanosecond and do the fed's tightening work for us, and would still give us an incredibly flat curve. i put a huge amount of emphasis on the inverted yield curve, because it gives the fed a lot of room to do its work while it sits there. >> fascinating stuff. professor, thank you for joining us here tonight. we're going to trade this around the table. stuart, i'm going to give you the first comment. >> yeah, look, i agree, the inverted yield curve is a huge issue right now. a lot of folks, when that curve starts to steepen, think this is a pro-psychly call signal, but when you're starting from inverted, steepening is actually not the -- not what you're hoping to have happen. and the other thing, i wish i would have asked him, how do you

define a soft landing? because soft landing back in january meant the shallow recession, you know, now soft landing seems to mean something else. but i think -- the single biggest investment theme this year, and i think it continues, is positive surprises to consensus growth expectations. and i think, you know, we've gotten distracted by all the event risks, and if we just stay focus on the fact that growth continues to come in way better than expected, consistently now for nine, ten months, i think people's sentiment towards the markets would have been different. >> i think the bar is so low, and as you said, people have marked down, there's been eps revisions downward. we had an earnings recession. it may be time the analyst community is going to come in and say, this was better than expected. it's all about relative expectations going into this earnings season. by the way, professor paul, he must have the best hair in the professor's lounge. >> i was thinking that, too. >> it's stellar. stellar. well, coming up, an earnings alert and united airlines. shares dropping after reporting

results. the numbers out of that quarter is next up. plus, the bank of america ceo weighing in on bonds after delivering an earnings beat. but one of our traders wasn't loving his answer. more on that when asmoy""ft ne returns. we're back in two. decisions are easier to make when you know what's possible. at world wide technology, we have built the world's most powerful technology lab environment to help accelerate your digital transformation. the wwt platform features cloud and security solutions, allowing you to compare and validate technology architectures.

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developing news on the vote for speaker of the house. emily wilkins has the details. what's going on now? >> hey, courtney. earlier today, jim jordan came short of getting enough votes for the gavel. he said that he expected to have another vote tonight, but he just exited a room where he was for several hours, trying to work through the issues with some of the holdouts and said he's not going to have a vote until tomorrow morning. this is just going to give him time to try and talk to the members that voted against him, try to figure out if there's a way to negotiate or get to an agreement. there are a lot of concerns right now. some of them are with jordan specifically. some of his hard-line stances, but there are other concerns just about how this process has played out. there's still a lot of members who are very frustrated that it took eight members of the republican caucus to oust kevin mccarthy, they were upset that steve scalise, they feel like he didn't get a fair shake. and now they have a lot of questions with jordan.

but jim jordan said that he's not going to be forming a coalition with democrats, that republicans are going to power through and get this done, and we'll see tomorrow if he's made any progress. courtney? >> emily, thank you very much. hopefully you can get some rest, too. this sounds like you're in for the long haul here. meantime, an earnings alert on united airlines. the company beating top and bottom line estimates, but shares dropping on weaker than expected guidance. phil lebeau has more. >> hey, courtney. that guidance is really the issue. and we'll learn more tomorrow during our interview with scott kirby on "squawk box." let's go over the q-3 numbers. not a huge surprise they did better than expected. the guidance -- not the guidance, the estimates on the street have been moving lower. they earned 365 versus the street at 335. revenue that's record revenue, by the way, at $14.48 billion. having said that, the cost side of the equation for united, that's the real issue,

especially in fourth quarter. fuel costs, they were down 11% in q-3, but in q-4, they're going to be moving higher. that's not a surprise. everybody in the airline industry is facing that. the other issue for united, when you look at their guidance for the fourth quarter is the overall cost equation of what they're expecting. because of that, their guidance for earnings per share, they're now expecting to earn between a buck 50 and a buck 80 a share, the street's at $2.06. here's the real issue, we're seeing notes about this, they are expecting an increase of 3.5% to 5%. the street right now is at an increase of 1.3%. is it the labor contracts? is it the maintenance costs which are hitting all of the airlines right now as they're dealing with some real problems on the maintenance side of the business? we'll find out tomorrow morning. their full-year earnings per share, they are now expecting, if you take what they're doing in the fourth quarter or expected to do, the implied earnings for the full year will be $9.55 to $9.85 a share.

the last guidance back in july was $11 to $12 a share. so, there you see why the shares are under pressure, down now more than 4%. don't forget, scott kirby, exclusive, tomorrow morning on "squawk box." courtney? >> thank you, phil. we'll be tuning in to hear that. what do you make of these results, bonawyn? seems like the guidance way far off. >> yeah, down from $11, that's going to take a lot of wind out of the sails. we saw price action out of delta, actually. and even though these guys are suffering, but still not going to cover up the ball on the top line what really concerns me are the domestic carriers. if you are seeing this pain in the international carriers, or those that have international capabilities, and we've seen it tick back up in demand for those, we see it in business international travel, transatlantic travel, i think the domestic carriers are in for a rough one. >> great point. tim? >> i think airlines look interesting here. i realize that there's a lot of

reasons to be doubtful that airlines can be efficient players. i look at the capacity growth year over year and still higher than the street wants to see. the cost side of it is a big deal. i think the analyst community may be less so than the investor community, worried about oil prices and fuel prices and are just imputting. you are going to see them upgrade the fuel costs, but the market can see, and my view, that oil prices stay here. i look at ual, trading down to the bottom of this range, and they talk about their second-best domestic demand of all-time, and i just think their business remains strong. so, if they can get control of the cost base, i think airlines look interesting. you don't own them, you trade them. and i think right now, you're a trader. >> yeah, cost numbers were interesting, phil pointed out, too. a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. bank earnings rolling in, and karen's eyeing bank of

america's bond portfolio. what she's watching in the name. plus, geopolitical tensions heating up, as putin arrives in beijing. all while tim cook makes a surprise visit with iphone sales slumping. we're surrounding the economy that trade ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in timesque. 'rback right after this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey!

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worth of unrealized maturity portfolio losses right now. ceo brian moynihan had this to say about that issue this morning. >> basically two years ago plus, we made a decision to put some of that money to work and we split it into two pieces. so, 47% of our securities in cash we hold is in -- really short-term overnight type of investments, and 53% is long-term. and that's in the held to maturity portfolio, because those marks we knew would come and we don't have to take them through capital. and they pulled apart. these are government securities, so, the team has done a good job managing. >> what do you think, karen? you're a bit incensed about this? you think they've done a good job managing this? >> two years ago, we made the decision to bet against everything the fed was saying, we're going to raise, raise, again and again. just because we knew we wouldn't have to mark them -- that doesn't make any sense. this hit to -- this hit to their value. if they had to mark it, it's

enormous. to be fair, on the other side, they issued debt at that time, not nearly as much of what they bought, but -- and that's down, so, that would be sort of a counter balance, but not nearly enough, and so, it's just amazing to me, in a portfolio that size, that you would actually be making this bet long-term, in the face of -- in the face of the fed telling you again and again, and, i mean, to their credit, they have a very sticky deposit base. if they didn't, this would be a very different story. they do. they're a gigantic bank, millions of consumers, but in terms of port yol foe management, this is the worst of the -- >> do you think this is, at the core of the underperformance of bank of america. >> absolutely. absolutely. >> and therefore -- i don't know how much you know on a relative to their peers, in other words, where -- >> there's jamie? >> jamie, so, for example, they

had $139 billion in unrealized losses of bank of america. jpmorgan had $34 billion, okay? so, that's a very different -- they made a very, very different bet. and it shows. for bank of america, a lot of the metrics are fantastic, right? but this price to book -- is it -- it's an actual book they can say, yeah, it's this much, but really, if they had to mark, they don't, i understand, the book isn't really what they say. that's why the stock has been really cheap on so many metrics, it should be. >> you know, bonawyn, it was an okay quarter, but short of jpmorgan and citi's results and look at goldman, both goldman and bank of america beat across the board, but if you compare year over year, a lot of goldman's metrics were lower. when you look at these banks, what is your summation? >> i think they are cut from completely different cloths. >> sure. >> with goldman, the reason i'm willing to invest in that stock

is because i always expect them to exhibit some type of trading act ewe men. this is the antithesis of this. we can afford to make this mistake because we don't have to take the marks. and to karen's point, frb got in the situation because they didn't have the deposit base and had to shore up liquidity. when i'm looking at someone that's managing capital, i still am going to give you a demerit for coming up short in terms of how you are using that capital and deploying that capital. that is really at the life blood of what a financial institution is. so, yes, i -- on one hand, i do -- i do understand the strategy behind saying, we don't have to take these marks, these are hold to maturity, bhau's the opportunity cost. and that's why they're going to continue to trade at a discount. >> fair enough. coming up, all the headlines out of china. russia's vladimir putin arrives in beijing. what his visit could mean for the two countries. and it's not just politics. tim cook making a surprise

visit, as iphone 15 sales see a rough start. so, can tim turn it around? the details when "fast money" returns. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing near the flat

line after a pretty volatile day, while treasury yields jumped after the hot retail sales data. the nasdaq losing a quarter of a percent. some more afterhorses moafterhos movers. stocks down by about 4%. and semi stocks getting hit today. nvidia, amd and asml dropping as the biden administration makes it harder for the chinese to purchase advanced a.i. chips from u.s. companies. it's set to close loopholes in the existing export controls and make it harder for china to buy existing or new products. tim, this wasn't entirely une unexpected. nvidia shares jumped all around on this, ultimately, though, you know, closing formid bly lower for a stock that side. >> there's a lot of different ways to look at nvidia, both in the microcosm of today's news,

and as karen points out, if they tell you they're going to do this, they're going to do a lot more than this. i don't think the news is significant for nvidia. they get 20% of their sales from china, and at some point, nvidia is so good at adjusting and making -- they'll make a chip that will adjust to the standard. but when you think about the bigger picture of what's going on between the u.s. and china and the semiconductor war and the dynamics with tie yan involved here, be scared, be really scared if you rely on semis that have anything to do with going through china or taiwan. and that's where the u.s. government is scared. that's not changing today. back to, is nvidia expensive or cheap, i'll leave that for the analysts that really cover that sector. i don't think today's news on nvidia is a game-changer. i look at the stock and the underperformance of the semiconductors as a group and as a market participant, i watch that. i care about that. and that sometimes could be independent of what today's news is, it's just kind of a message. semis have actually outperformed

for the better part of a month. you have to watch that as a market participant. >> and nvidia spokesperson said there was no material financial impact in the short-term, in the long-term a bit of a question. china is welcoming russian president vladimir putin to beijing for the tenth-year anniversary of its belt and road initiative. china has already invested more than a trillion dollars into globalinfrastructure and accumulated 1 50 partner nation. it could be a formidable issue for the u.s., says our next guest. dewardrick, thank you for being with us. lay out your theory, your thesis right now, about the new initiative and what it means for the u.s. why should we be worried about this? >> certainly. i'd love to come back to the nvidia chips conversation, because i have some slight

points i would like for tim to consider, but i think we know that this is an initiative that was very much dear to xi jinping and his desire to sort of show china's influence, and a lot of that other the last ten years was in sort of old in infrastructure, roads, rail, bridges, ports, but i think the real question is what's the next act? and, you know, what i'm looking for is, what is china going to do to retool the belt and road initiative around green tech and new energy infrastructure and supply chains that control critical minerals at the source? perhaps invest in processing on-site where they're digging some of those minerals. and look, the u.s. is behind the eight-ball when it comes to a lot of the sort of critical mineral infrastructure, and the green tech. and china's going to press advantage there, and i think we're going to see that.

look, they've gotten really good at building ev infrastructure in china. what better way to juice their own automobiles and third markets than to go into some of these places under a retro fitted bri and start to built ev in infrastructure there, byd can use to sell their automobiles. so, i think the u.s. government's going to have to get really serious here about what we do in the critical mineral and green technology space, because china sees advantage, and i think they're going to press that. >> go ahead and make your points about nvidia and what we hear about the united states tightening the restrictions in the chip space. >> of course this is a 600-page document that many of us have not gone through thoroughly, but what stood out to me with nvidia, that's the notification requirements that are put in place, particularly if a company, and largely innvidia, decides to design it just below the existing thresholds.

so, if you'll remember, tim, the a-800 and the h-800 was produced right after the last october's restrictions. those chips are targeted now, and there's a notification requirement put in place that says, you need to notify the administration if you intend to design it below that threshold again. so, i do think that that is significant. i understand nvidia's point, but this notification requirement, i think, could be a game-changer. >> i have to agree with you, by the way, no one throws a fastball high and tight than you. you're right. and as it relates to their china business, part of my call here, the u.s. is really what this is about right now, and so, u.s. entities don't have any issue adopting. you're right, though. they will refit and reform late to get inside of what's needed to be done and china will find something to knock them down with again. right now, the story for nvidia is not about china, which is my view. anything on china, i'm listening

to you. >> speaking of, we talked a lot about putin being there in china right now, what should we be paying attention to from a market and economic perspective when you have a leader like putin there with xi jinping? >> well, i'll tell you, you know, right now, china is russia's main lifeline and putin is getting the red carpet rolled out for him. but i think just underneath the surface, there's one person on that delegation that i thi we should pay attention to, and t that's from gas prom. russia has been desperate to get the chinese to approve power of siberia two, this gas pipeline running out of russia into china. we thought we would get an announcement when xi visited moscow. the chinese have been holding that back, perhaps there's leverage, something there, but i think we should consider a lot of discussions happening while putin is on the ground about trying to get power siberia two up and running. i don't think there will be an

announcement during this trip, but certainly his presence caught my attention. >> a lot going on in that region. dewardric, thank you. >> stuart, what is your take on all of this? there's so much to talk about with what's going on ain china. >> i think it was a china reopening trade earlier in the year. the single thematic that's performed worst is china tourism and china reopening. that was the trade early and it's definitively not the trade now. in terms of long-term, everybody's aware of the geopolitical risk. i don't think that's anything new. what you've seen is actions both regulatory and other from china have made western equity investors very, very cautious about having risk on. they've done it through indirect ways like luxury in europe, which is also gotten, you know, gotten taken out back recently, as well. so, i think for my perspective, the western equity investor is just extremely cautious about having exposure to china. you've seen that in terms of the

performance of those stocks. i don't think people are investing in nvidia for, you know, two generation ago chips that are getting sold into china. the view on nvidia, it's one of the few places in a.i. that actually makes money. so, if you are bullish a.i., it's sort of a must-hold. and that kind of puts a little bit of a floor under the stock, and i would expect it to recover going into earnings. switching gears to other people in china. tim cook is in china right now, trying to -- i don't know, make headway with the iphone sales. what do you make of that visit? >> well, trying to make headway with the iphone sales. he's like a rock star there, you know? i think -- i don't know. you know, the chinese economy is really -- hasn't been great. this is a very big, important market for them. the economy's worse than i imagined, thinking about that reopen trade that didn't really materialize as the rest of, certainly the real estate -- the real estate, i don't even know it' e's a lehman moment in real

estate. i have a small position in apple. i'm concerned about the china sales there. we were talking in the break about, does he carry his actual iphone, no way, no way does he carry a real phone with data of any kind on it would be my strong suspicion. >> i looks like a real phone, but maybe it's something different. i don't know. i'd love to know the answer to that. coming up, wyndham hotels saying this takeover bid is not the choice for them. the two budget travel names moving for them. we'll wrbrg u e tainyothdeils next. also, netflix. we'll dive into the options pits for the action. that's ahead. fo more "fast" in two.

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and we're helping pano ai innovate, to stop the spread of wildfires. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business. welcome back to "fast money." choice hotels unveiling a $7.8 billion takeover deal for wyndham. choice has been trying for months to get a deal done, but wyndham keeps saying no. today's offer for $90 a share and a mix of cash and stock. both companies catering to budget-minded travelers. karen, what do you make of this one? >> it's interesting. it revealed they were in talks, but the most interesting thing is, wyndham's response, which they called the deal underwhelming. and they choose those words

carefully. it was not, we are not for sale. pay us more and we'll do it. >> very interesting, yeah. words can mean everything in this market. we'll see what happens. coming up, we're rolling out the red carpet ahead of netflix earnings. the streaming giant reporting tomorrow after the bell. we'll get the scoop on how options traders are epin prarg, when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money." netflix is on deck after the bell tomorrow. the streaming giant slumping

over 20% since their last earnings report, dropping close to 2% in today's session. mike khouw joins us now with the action. hi, mike. >> hi there. so, right now, the options market is implying a move of about 8% for netflix by the end of the week. that's in line with how much it's moved over the course of the last four quarters, though significantry ly less than the average of the last eight. i saw a purchase of the january 160/120 one by two put spreads. that is actually a bet, of course, see the highest profits down at that 120 strike. and we saw a seller of the december 360 calls collecting about 24 bucks and change for those, so, not overly optimistic going into the earnings print. >> fair enough. we will catch you and see what happens on the other side. bonawyn, what do you make of this trade? >> i think 8% is probably on the cheaper said to pay for option premium. and you probably want to be positioning yourself via

options. i think you're going to be looking at subscriber growth, though that's no longer the focus. going to be looking at ad tier. i think there's moving pieces and options are probably the best way to play this. >> going to be a big talker for us on the show tomorrow. tim? >> i tell you, i think the stock has lost -- it's obvious, it's lost momentum. through the 200-day, the dynamics around the new pricing tiers and where they had a lot of positive momentum that came out of, again,sharing and if you think about the 100 million folks affected, it's something that i think the stock market has priced in. i think you can buy it cheaper. >> interesng stituff. up next, your final trades.

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medicare supplement plan from a company like humana just might be the answer. it's all right time for the final trade. stuart? >> yeah, two quick ones for me, we like qqqs out to november. macro data has been good. we think there's going to be legs there year-end. and real quick, middle east, if you are worried about risk there, energy sector volatility has not moved nearly as much as oil has. so, i point you to xop, if you are worried about kind of continued middle east risk. >> tim? >> i tell you, netflix, i think

you are going to get it cheaper. i think that level is 325. >> karen? >> yeah, one-year treasuries. >> bonawyn? >> i'm worried about domestic airlines. save flying south. >> thanks for watching my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but put everything in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. i come out here to talk about stocks every night. you better believe we make mistakes in a highly visible, d ghly public way.