good wednesday morning. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live from the floor of the new york stock exchange. a second speaker vote as the house remains divided on its future leader. presidential candidate and former new jersey governor chris christie is here. then, a pulse check on the health of regional banks. first horizon's chief bryan jordan will join us on the heels of their results. later, two big earnings reports coming after the bell. what the street likes and does not about each, tesla and netflix. meantime, markets close to session lows here. we've got 1% declines on the nasdaq and the ten-year crossing about 491, vix back above 119.

ten-year yield might be the story, as this is pacing for some new cycle highs yet again. >> if not the 30-year ticking above 5%. 501 on the 30. it seems like it was one of those little raw nerves that the market has had out, exposed for a while. beyond that, it's hard to sort of point to anything, except for a little bit of a mixed reaction to earnings. earnings themselves seem fine. the real function of earnings season this time is to get a reality check on the 12-month forward, you know, $240 in s&p projections right now. it's a little too early to get that fully. aside from that, we're kind of still above last week's lows. we've been in this very anxious range, back and forth, a lot of macro cross winds. oil is not great going for up definitely the wrong reasons. >> are you surprised to see the market, it's down, but it's not down that much, given what's happening with the yields right now, and oil, and the world. >> i have been a little bit surprised, half impressed,

certainly the last two days with the way the average stock has been able to buck up a little bit. and i think that's an argument some are making, which is that, hey, we're only 5% off the highs from late july when a lot has been thrown at this market. i think you can make that case. the other side of it is, everything's breaking down market wise around the world. you know, you see non-u.s. markets, you have had this rally in the russell 2000, but it's obviously been off a really depressed base, and can big u.s. multi-national megacaps hold everything together for much longer? and that is the question. the economic growth story is also, i think a little bit of a mixed picture, because while it's very reassuring that right now the u.s. economy is in a great spot, we keep having to test it for, okay, you dealt with 7% mortgage rates, how about 8? so you just don't quite know if it's got the staying power until we get into it. >> china gdp forecast getting back above 5, with jpmorgan on the back of their better than expected gdp growth last night.

is that sort of putting a floor in on global growth? >> it doesn't hurt. i think that was coming into today, it seems like that might be part of the theme. that along with the bank of japan trying to moderate the yield move. >> we had an unscheduled bond buying session there. >> we had the makings of, okay, we can use that as fuel, but a little bit too much in the way of static as the news flow. >> definitely some chop. tech and the nasdaq continuing to outperform small and mid-cap stocks into q4, but is that about to change. might the smaller names be due for a breakout. let's bring in northwestern mutual ceo, brent shudy. manages $265 billion in client assets. it's good to have you back. >> thanks for having me. this recent, i guess, very recent outperformance of small caps versus, say, tech, is that a one-off? >> you know, i think timing is still uncertain on this, but i always point to the fact that the s&p 600 trades at 12 1/2 times forward 12-month earnings that have already been marked down. if you think about it, most of

it on wall street have to put money to work on a daily basis. and a lot of people have been opting for quality in those large-cap tech names, because they're perceived to be more recession proof. and this is because the market has priced in some sort of recession, which i still think is inevitable. and so while there may be more downside risks potentially in small caps, they are off 20-some percent from their highs, and i think the other side of a mild recession, we'll see these names do well in the coming 12 to 18 months. that's where we're positioned more towards those names because of the valuation and the fact they've discounted some sort of a recession. >> are you unnerved by some of the commentary that some small and medium-sized businesses are having trouble accessing capital versus a year ago, or maybe you're encouraged by the fact that some fed officials have recently talked about why that's a reason to hold steady. >> i think it's all the above. to me, it's more along the lines that i think they are priced in for a recession. and so, i think you'll actually get that. and then i think the opposite

side of it will be very mild, certainly, which means more of a mild downturn, will mean these names doing much, much better, especially the discount and cushion they already have priced into them. i think there's a growing debate on wall street or the fed about hiking more or not. look, i don't think the fed stops until they see the final embers of inflation stompd ed o, and i think that's wage growth. unfortunately, the record of the fed in actually stomping out wage growth without creating a recession is very poor. >> what about the average investor's willingness to start playing in equities after having this playground of money markets and 5% returns. do you think animal spirits come back when they get the sense that the fed is done, or maybe you want to be selling the first cut? >> yeah, i mean, we're underweight equities right now, so i think there is this reticence of investors. i think they're actually more afraid to buy bonds right now. so i haven't heard bonds talked as much as i have recently in my

30 years of doing this. it's kind of interesting, after they finally yield something and there's real yield cushion for buyers, they don't want to participate. they want to hide in the front end of the curb. this is where i encourage investors to embrace bonds, especially a little bit further out on the curve, because nowno one knows where rates will be two, three, five years from now, which is probably lower and they'll protect you against the downside of a recession. we're more towards the bond side. it's really interesting nobody wants to buy these if they bought them at rock-bottom yields before. >> yeah, no, now they're selling them, big time. in fact, brent, we just saw a move up the ten-year now above 4.19%. i don't know if this is why, but it did coincide with when president biden was speaking with tel aviv and asking for an unprecedented aid package that he's going to request for israel at the end of the week, from congress. i do wonder about the fiscal risk here, and whether that is becoming a factor for treasuries in a way that we haven't seen in a while, and whether that makes

it a different proposition. >> potentially. i mean, the one thing that's really interesting, the move lately higher in treasuries on the longer end has been all in real yields. inflation expectations at least in the bond market here haven't changed at all. it's all been people wanting more premium for the risk -- >> that's why i bring it up, too. >> which is why, i think, right now, you're at 2.4 or 2.5% real yield on the ten-year. i think people should be encouraged that some of that risk that you're talking about is already priced in, and that's where i think there's opportunities pushing forward. >> so you don't worry about anything bigger or more worrisome in the bond market when it comes to who's going to buy all the bonds on the issuance, the deficit issue, the fact that we don't have a speaker of the house, it's all lumped in there. >> i guess, how much are they priced in already? and that's where i think there's some good news when you see real yields at 2.4%, which we haven't seen in 15 years and probably even a few years before that. i think you're being compensated for that, especially as an investor. those that have longer term

horizons, i think buying bonds now will reward you in the next few years, because i think those issues are coming to a head, especially because the interest costs on that debt in the annual budget discussions, which will become a big issue going forward, and i think you're going to see both monetary and fiscal policy become more restrictive in the future. >> do any of the revisions higher to q3 gdp make you think that earnings season will be better than we thought? >> i think earnings season will be largely as expected. i think that's kind of priced in, and i think that's the good news. i think the bad news is, from a macro perspective, it's probably about as good as it gets. the macro conditions will continue to deteriorate as you see the impact of higher rates filter into the economy. i am not a believer that we no longer have long and variable lags. if you look at the consumer, the consumer has more mortgage debt that has a 3.6 effective rate. think about that shifting as the housing stock eventually has to turn over. think about 21% credit card interest rates. think about student debt

repayment. and i think you're starting to see all of those excess savings wear off. and i think you'll have tougher mack retimes pushing forward as the impact of these rate hikes takes effect. >> a lot of people who believe that the peak impact is going to be in q2, q3 of next year, brent. we'll see what happens. good to talk. thank you. >> thank you. turning now to the latest in the middle east as president biden delivers remarks from the ground in israel. with us now is jay gray, nbc news correspondent. jay? >> reporter: and we just saw the president's motorcade, in fact, a few moments ago passing by our location here on his way to the airport, the end of what's been an interesting trip, one that was much different than he had planned, and even when he got on air force one to leave the u.s. so changes, of course, with the explosion at the hospital in gaza really affected this trip. canceled his meeting with arab allies and a brief trip over to jordan. he plans to speak with those leaders on the phone during the flight back, we are told, by the

white house. some interesting developments, though, after meeting with benjamin netanyahu, meeting with his war cabinet, and in visiting today with some of the family members of victims of the attack at the music festival, which started this war with some of the first responders. and some of the family members of the hostages. he, in closing remarks, before heading to the airport, again, just shared his unwavering support for israel in this situation. and his really harsh condemnation of hamas during those comments. and he brought up something that we were told would be very important during this trip, and that's humanitarian aide. he says that the u.s. is committing right now $100 million in aide, and he asked israel to clear the way for aide to cross the border in egypt. we just heard a response, a written response from the government here in israel, who says that they will not block

food, water, or medicine going across the border, the rafah border in egypt. the border between egypt and gaza is a place where israel now says that they will allow that aide to flow. that's a big change, and something that's been pushed for for quite some time. to see it actually happen, obviously, is another step opinion but right now, israel has said that they've removed any barriers for that. they will not let any of that aide cross the borders between israel and gaza, but they won't stop it in egypt. now it's up to authorities in egypt to begin that flow. and they have said that that will happen. so that's something we need to watch very closely here. the one other thing that we're watching is the backlash after that explosion at the hospital in gaza. hamas now says 500 are dead, they're blaming israeli jets for bombing the area. what the israeli officials are saying is that it was a failed rocket launch by the islamic jihad. what we do know is that the

perception of the rest of the globe is changing, and we've seen protests throughout the day, some of them violence at the u.s. embassy or near the u.s. embassy in beirut, there was a security warning in place at the u.s. embassy in ayman, istanbul, cairo, they've seen protests as well. this is a big concern and another facet of why the president was here, carl. he wanted to try a tamp down some of the frustration and the possibility of violence spreading, and this becoming a more expanded regional war. and rowan, that's something that's very tenuous. >> we just got a tweet from adrian watson, jay, the official spokesperson for nsa, for jake sullivan, national security adviser in the united states. she says, while we connect to collect information, our current assessment based on overhead imagery is that israel is not responsible for the explosion at

the hospital in gaza yesterday. so now the u.s. is increasingly pointing to their own intelligence and defense as to backing up israel's claim. >> reporter: i think it's very interesting, and when we see these protests, it's going to be a difficult and long sell to get the rest of those watching this so closely around the globe to accept that. because right now, as we've seen, visually and physically with these protests, there are a lot of people who don't believe that israel wasn't involved in that situation at the hospital. >> yeah. >> jay, thanks for that, talk in a bit. jay gray joining us today from tel aviv. still ahead this morning, the ceo of first horizon will be with us on the company's latest earnings and the state of regional banks. stock is moving higher today, almost 3.5%. plus, presidential candidate and former new jersey governor chris christie also coming up. we'll talk to him about the house speaker problems. another vote set to begin this

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some pivotal earnings coming for tesla after the bell tonight. the street is a bit worried with some slowing demand and margin pressure, after tesla missed delivery estimates in q2, and as you probably know, cut prices again. the stock might be in for a volatile trade if margins miss tonight as well. shares are down about 13% since the last earnings report in july. and this morning, down another 2 percent plus, sara. >> let's take a look at some of the regional banks. big earnings movers today. zeroing if on first horizon, which is higher this morning after delivering an earnings beat in q3, raising their loan outlook into year end. revenue and net interest income coming in under the consensus. joining us for a closer look at the quarter is first horizon ceo, brian jourdan. brian, how would you characterize the quarter now,

relative to earlier in the year, when we were all worried about the health of regional banks. >> yeah, i think the quarter was an outstanding quarter. i'm really proud of what we were able to accomplish. i think the banking system has stabilized tremendously since the early months of this year, march, april, and may. i think the momentum in our economy is starting to slow down a bit, but overall, i think the banking system has reached a very strong and stable point and i think confidence is building in that system, andis likely to continue. >> you actually saw some deposit growth at the end of -- in the quarter. and that goes against pretty much what the industry has been seeing, which is deposit flight in favor of higher-yielding securities. what's driving that for you? >> that's right, in the h8 data, deposits were roughly flat across the industry for the third quarter. our deposits were up 1.5% or 2.

we had a great effort from our people to attract new-to-bank relationships. we picked up something like 19,000 new-to-bank relationships. and we've been very front-footed in trying to grow our business. we're very fortunate to do business in a great economy in the south. we have great markets, great economy, and our people are very fr front-footed and looking to grow our relationships and broaden and deepen over the long-term. >> but can we connect the dots between the higher deposit costs, which we did see jump. i mean, you're obviously paying up for these deposits, and i think more than just the jump in fed funds rate, so is that what it's going to take to continue to grow? >> that's right. what you saw in our deposit costs this quarter is really the pull through from a campaign we ran in the back half of the second quarter. our deposit costs in that campaign were significantly higher than the rates that we were booking deposits in the third quarter.

so, for example, our blended costs in the third quarter was close to 5 -- excuse me, in the second quarter, was close to 5%. the blended cost of deposits raised in the third quarter was 4.2%. so what showed up in our net interest margin was the pull through or the full quarter impact of the second quarter campaign. from here, we expect our net interest margin to actually start widening. we think deposits will start to trend down in the fourth quarter and into early 2024 and beyond. >> that's sort of been a -- tat rhymes with a lot of the guidance we've gotten from some other financials in the last week or two. everyone's asking about the credit environment and whether or not it remains in control. as you think about it, is it something that would turn on a dime, if things did change? >> we don't see any big significant changes. we highlighted earlier in september a idiosyncratic credit

as it relates to us. outside of that one large credit, our credit costs was very steady with the early part of this year. and as we look into the fourth quarter and into early next year, we're not seeing a tremendous level of deterioration anywhere in the portfolio. clearly, you're going to see higher interest rates and a slowing economy, tightening credit conditions start to have some impact, but right now, it does not feel like credit is deteriorating at a very rapid rate and is likely to hold up for the rest of this year and into the early part of next year. >> so is it your strategy to try to be in front of it, be cautious, or wait until you see the whites of yiits eyes, if, i fact, we're entering some inflection on the cycle. >> i would say we're always cautious about credit. we want to put together a balance sheet that performs through any cycle. i have a tremendous amount of

confidence in the discipline that we apply and the good times, performing well, in the softer economic times. that said, we think our strong capital position, the strength of our underwriting, the strength of our borrowers, the strength of the collateral positions that we have, we think we can continue to lean in and grow customer relationships, and do it in a thoughtful and meaningful way. so we're not pulling back in a significant way right now. the economy loan demand has started to slow over the last four or five weeks. we've started a sense of slowing of demand, and i think that's just the general economic tightening and the uncertainty we have in the environment. but overall, our outlook for credit in the economy is still fairly constructive. >> all right, brian. good to talk to you. and get a relatively optimistic viewpoint. bryan jordan, first verizon ceo.

after the deal, when the regulators didn't allow it earlier this year. thank you, bryan. >> thank you. still to come this morning, goldman sachs global head of tech media and telecom on the state of deal making for that sector and where tech valuations might go from here. >> plus, what to expect from netflix after the llbe tonight with the stock down more than double digits in the last month. we're back in a moment. at humana, we believe your healthcare should evolve with you, and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. hi, my name is sam davis and i'm going to tell you about medicare advantage prescription drug plans that can provide more coverage than original medicare, including prescription drug coverage, all wrapped up into one convenient plan. with original

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did the crackdown in password sharing work? that's what netflix is looking for. julia boorstin has more on what to expect. did it, julia? >> that's the big question. this quarter netflix really cracked down on password sharing, so we'll see if its paid sharing strategy is working to get those freeloaders to start paying for the service. the street's projection of 5.5 million subscribers, that's the number to watch, up from the year ago quarter's 2.4 million addition. netflix shares are down over 11% in the past month, with about half of analysts now rating the stock a hold or a sell. wolf recently downgrading the stock to pure perform, writing, while netflix is on course to build a massive advertising business for the long-term, we have rising concern about 2024 and '25 growth forecasts. jpmorgan with a buy on the stock writing, our investor conversations suggest growing concern that paid sharing monetization slower than expected or worse, stalled, and therefore providing lift to 4q

average revenue per member. those issues plus any commentary on the hollywood strike, expanding video games, and the financial opportunity for around new experiences are sure to be in focus on the call today. >> julia, thanks. we'll see what happens right around 4:00 eastern time. julia boorstin. let's get a news update from kristina partsinevelos. hi, kristina. >> russia's parliament completed the passage of a bill that cleared the way for moscow to begin nuclear testing. vladimir putin convinced parliament to make the change earlier this month saying he wanted to bring his country in line with the u.s. the u.s. put a new round of economic sanctions on hamas today on the 12th day of the conflict between the militant group and israel. they affect ten hamas group members, operatives, and financial contributors from gaza, sudan, turkey and other countries. in a move, treasury secretary janet yellen says will limit the group's ability to raise funds. and a suspect in the natalee

holloway disappearance pleaded guilty today to extorting and defrauding holloway's mother one condition of the plea agreement is that joran van der sloot would provide natalee's family with the details of her death. holloway went missing on a vacation to aruba back in 2005 and even though she was declared legally dead more than a decade ago, her body has never been found. sara? >> all right, kristina, thanks. kristina partsinevelos. presidential candidate and former new jersey governor chris christie is on the other side of this break. we'll get his take on the chaos ots house speakership a anher vote gets underway this hour. we're back in just a moment. do. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free, now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-376-4376.

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to china, which could be playing a big role in the sell-off, come 4% almost today. >> meantime, trying to bounce off some morning lows. let's get post-to-post with bob pisani. hey, bob. >> down today. and if you're hoping that cyclical stocks like industrials would do better because the economy is still strong, unfortunately, that story isn't really playing out. it's been a rough day for the industrials. new lows in some of these airline stocks, like alaska groups, remember, american airline, new low. united beat, but they talked about higher fuel costs impacting them. there's a little uncertainty about the tel aviv route. that's for them, for united. so that's weighing on the sector, generally. that's a big issue, but more importantly, i think it's the way the global industrials are acting. the caterpillars, the johnson controls. this is a company, they do security and hvac and fire control, all of the stuff behind the wallace in the big commercial buildings around the world, they do. this stock is very near 52-week low. in fact, here it is.

you can see it's been stlashlgt down, but a lot of these industrial stocks have been weak recently. those cyclical names aren't really doing any kind of outperformance at all, which is kind of disappointing. the only thing i see that's a bit of good news is the food stocks have been stabilized in the last two years. hershey has been straight down, smuckers, cokeurig, dr. pepper, kraft heinz, partly on cost issues, partly on talk about weight loss drugs affecting them. but they're startinging to stabilize in the last few days. the only real upswing, market leadership is a small group of exploration production stocks, oil's a bit higher, hess is at a new high, pioneer and natural resources has been strong. and some of the other ones that are out there. some of the all e&p companies, like pioneer, texas names, also have been particularly strong. but we really do have a lack of broad leadership in the markets right now, this narrative is very, very confused and

uncertain. there are people who are still in the growth soft landing camp. other people think that we're smoothing into a recession, and the only thing that the market believes right now is megacap growth stocks are going to outperform. that's the only thing working right now. guys, back to you. >> bob, thanks. bob pisani. coming up after the break, presidential candidate chris christie is going to join us at post nine. we'll get his take on this drama this hour, in fact, to elect a new ear tspkeofhe house. we'll talk about israel and a lot more in a moment. is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the

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we are expecting another vote for house speaker this hour, as congressman jim jordan fell short during last night's first round of voting. 20 of jordan's gop colleagues voted against the ohio republican and he can only afford to lose four if he hopes to take the gavel. joining us live at post nine to weigh in on the israeli/hamas conflict and much more, former new jersey governor, chris christie, also presidential candidate. it's good to have you, governor. >> thanks, sara. thanks, carl. >> what's going to happen with

speaker? it feels like terrible timing. >> it's awful timing and feels childish the last two weeks, to be honest. my own party looks honest. in my view, kevin mccarthy, there was no reason to kick him out. and i think these eight folks are now probably looking at this as it won't get resolved today, i don't think. if you're 20 votes down, i don't know what jim jordan is going to do to get 17 of those 20 back. because he's got a history in the house and there are a lot of relationships there, some good, some bad, and i don't know that you're going to change that. so i think that after this second vote, if he doesn't get it, i think it's incumbent upon him to do what steve scalise did, which is say, okay, it's not me, step aside, and let's see who's next. >> should he get it, just so that they have somebody in place, so we can pass legislation? >> i said this morning, look, i learned when i was governor, don't get involved in legislative leadership races, it's a loser when you're running for the executive spot. what i would say is just get a speaker. you know, we have israel aid,

ukraine aid, aid to taiwan, border security and a budget to get done and none of that can done without a speaker. let's get somebody and let's move on. >> can it be through a pro tem status, expand the powers, or should it be through a next in line. >> i would prefer a next in line. a if you have a pro tem, what stops these eight from going and doing the same thing to that person, if it were mchenry, which i like a lot, but if he does one thing they don't like, he's out and we're back in this barrel again. i think there needs to be somebody that republicans are investing in and let the person run the house. and i think we need that. >> do you think it's the moderates strike back? and if it is, what does that mean for a campaign like yours and the needle you're trying to thread? >> i think it is the moderates strike back here. they've all made it very clear that they're upset about mccarthy. remember, they're still voting for mccarthy. and they feel like kevin really

got shafted here. and so, they're not -- and they feel like, rightly or wrongly, that jim jordan and his friends had that happened in doing that. and steve scalise, as well. so, you know, that's what puts him in this spot, carl. and i think for my campaign, what it shows is that you need someone as president who knows how to get this stuff done, knows how to work with a legislative body. you know, for my eight years adds governor in new jersey, i have a democratic legislature every minute for eight years. so i learned about how to navigate that and move them to do conservative things, like eliminate the estate tax, like reform pension and health benefits to save $120 billion, balance budgets for eight years. that's not easy in a blue state, but you've got to know how to do it. and i think what this shows the c country is, we don't need a president who has no experience at this or bad experience, we need someone who knows how to do it. >> we just heard from president biden last hour in tel aviv,

showing full support, really stepping it up when it comes to israel, says he's going to ask congress for an unprecedented package for aid to israel by the end of the week. so what -- if there's no speaker of the house, what happens next? >> sara, look, i think there has to be a speaker by the end of the week. they've got to get their act together for when the president comes back. he'll start putting pressure on republicans to do something. and by the way, start putting some pressure on some moderate democrats, also. who will say to them, help get this thing solved. because we have big issues here. as far as the aide package goes, i haven't seen the specifics yet, just the headlines, but all the elements are things i agree with. we need to give aid to israel and ukraine in my view. we need to start arming taiwan. we need to send a very clear message to the chinese about that. we need to get more security down to the southern border. so every element of the package that he's talking about, i agree with. i want to see some of the fine print of what the amounts are, and what it contains, but the elements of it, i think, make sense.

>> the world feels like it's changed after the terrorist attack in israel. now we're watching putin in china with xi, his dear friend. we're watching iran and the increased saber rattling and calling out the u.s. i do wonder where you think the pieces are moving here in this new international world order, and how much you're going to be talking about that in the coming months. >> talking about it a lot, sara. look, the pieces are moving exactly the way you would have think they would have moved if you had some experience and some foresight. fabr fact is, when you hear folks like trump and desantis and ramaswamy saying, we're going to go talk to putin and get him to back off his relationship with china. this is the most inane bull i've ever heard in my life. you see the two of them together, they're two committed communist autocrats. and you're going to convince putin to come and work with us rather than with xi, who is, by the way, paying for his entire work in russia? xi now owns putin. and putin is going to do what xi

tells him to do. and so this is why we can't have a foreign policy in my view. this unrealistic, naive, isolationist foreign policy that trump, desantis, and ramaswamy are advocating in this race, and we need someone bhwho is seen a tough and direct and will act that way, but we don't have that. >> but being tough and direct costs money, this aid costs money, and prior to two saturdays, we were talk fiscal discipline. has that conversation turned upside down? >> no, you have to make prioritization choices. look, when i did this in new jersey, i came in in 2010 with an $11 billion deficit on a $29 billion budget. by percentage, insane places. we went through, we did zero-based budgeting and allowed us to eliminate 683 programs and pl balanced the budget without raising taxes. you're not going to do that at

the federal level in a year or even four years. it will mean eight years with that kind of discipline. it means, let's get real about entitlements and fix them. and let's look at all of the other spending we have and say, what's really necessary for us to be doing, what do we have to say "no." and if we don't start imposing that kind of discipline, markets like this one will react. think about it, in the last six years, we've added $13 trillion to a $33 trillion national debt. donald trump and joe biden. now, it's their fault, all of congress, but the president has to ultimately sign a putting or not. and we need a president who look at him and say, we have to do better and we'll do for the. >> i'm very focused on this foreign policy picture that you're painting. if it is going to all come down to the u.s. versus china, we know president trump's strategy there, right? tariffs, confrontation, how is yours different?

>> well, much different. much different. first of all, this tariff business that he's doing has proven ineffective. do we see chinese behavior changing? we don't. in fact, in many ways we see it getting worse. it has not worked and it's not worked economically for the american people or the american workers. so, we have inflation because of increased prices, that, you know, of the imports coming in, the tariffs are just being added on. look, you can either be legitimately smart and tough or you can be a tv tough guy. no offense, okay? and donald trump is a tv guy. >> we're just tv people, not tough guys. >> firing people on "the apprentice" and thinking that turns into being tough in the oval office. this is a guy who made a trade deal with china and china has not lived up to 25% of what they promise d to do on the agriculture side. he is full of it, guys. he makes no sense. and you saw him the other day.

he's all over the place from talking about fly paper being banned in the country -- i don't even know what the hell he's talking about! to talking about hezbollah being very, very smart. we don't need that kind of leader. and the foreign policy has to be reasoned and direct. we have to have an adversarial relationship with china. we're competitors. but we have to be engaging them and saying, we'll compete with you, but on a fair and even level. if you don't want to do it that way, we'll have other problems around the world that you're not going to want to deal with. >> there has to be some part of you that is surprised that the indictments and the misspeak that you referenced hasn't taken a notch out of his polling. >> yeah, the indictments in particular, yes. but i think that that's a product of the fact that a lot of people in our party believe these are biden indictments. that they're biased. now, i look at the two federal indictments quite frankly and i think he's in very big trouble in both of them.

the two state indictments are a little bit different. the federal indictments, i think he has a real problem with. i did this for seven years as the u.s. attorney in the fifth largest office in the country. so i know what i'm talking about in this stuff. he's in trouble there. but politically, if you look at where he's weakest, he's weakest in iowa and new hampshire right now. his numbers are below 40 in both of those places. that's because those have really started to pay attention. a lot of other voters in the country are just kind of reacting tribally. if i have a red jersey, i'm not going to allow you to criticize trump. if i have a blue one, i'm not going to allow you to criticize biden. i think as these races get more focused, and we're within 110 days of the iowa caucuses. so i always said in running for office, things get serious when it's inside 100 days. that's when voters start to go, okay, i'll have to vote in three months. what am i doing here? you'll see that in iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina as well. >> what about your own campaign. how is it going, when it comes to the fund-raising, are you going to be at the next debate?

i guess it depends on the polling? >> the polling we've already made the polling numbers, sara. we're satisfied by the polling numbers. go to chris christie.com and donate $1. and since you asked, and make sure that we're going to be on that stage. but i'm confident that we will be. and you want me there if you're a republican voter, when trump ultimately shows up, which i think will be around iowa and new hampshire. when the vote is going to start to come, he's going to show up and you'll want me there. because the last person he want there is me. believe me. i prepped him for the debates in '16 and '20. i played hillary clinton, and i took a sedative and played joe biden, and let me tell you, he knows what that will be like. that's why he's not showing up now. but when he does show up, the voters will want me there. >> you'll have to put your donald duck meme to rest. >> that's exactly right. if he shows up, we'll put the meme to rest. >> thank you very much, former new jersey governor and presidential candidate. straight ahead on the show, goldman sachs' head of tech media and telecom, her take on

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i want to send it over to the goldman sachs builders and innovators summit where deirdre bosa has a special guest on "tech check." good morning, dee. good morning, carl. i'm here with kim posnett, goldman sachs global head of tmt. we're an hour and a half north of san francisco.

this is goldman's annual builders and innovators summit. lots of entrepreneurs here. i think you said about 100. what's the sentiment on the ground? it's been a more challenging year compared to years past between higher interest rates, a tougher funding environment. what are you hearing from the entrepreneurs here? >> deirdre, thank you for having me. we're here at our builders and innovators summit in california, our 12th year hosting it. it's an annual event to honor and celebrate the most successful entrepreneurs in the world, and this year we have an unbelievable lineup of people. we have seasoned entrepreneurs, business leaders, thought leaders, and we come together for this two-day summit where we talk about how to build businesses that impact the world. the major themes this year, as you would expect, are ai, geo politics. and it's a great way to be at the center of entrepreneurship, innovation, and i've been here for 12 of the 12 years we've

done this, and each year i am struck with the unbelievable talent and drive and determination of the entrepreneurs but also the alumni who come back, and we've created this great community of entrepreneurship and innovation. >> right, and like you said, you've been doing it for 12 years. i have to assume there are very big differences between 2021 when it felt like every startup was getting funding very, very easily, and this year when the environment is a lot more muted. what are some of the challenges entrepreneurs are facing? >> let's talk about fund-raising that relates to the capital markets. it also relates to m&a. i'll start on capital markets. we reopened the ipo markets last month with three tech ipos, which you know, arm, instacart, and klaviyo. and i think what was notable about those three ipos, they spanned three different subsectors in tech, semiconductors, internet and software. they span different financial profiles, scale, growth, margin,

and i think that speaks to the breadth and diversity that can access capital markets efficiently. now since labor day, the nasdaq traded off as low as 7% a few weeks ago, now is off 4%. i think that speaks to the macro environment we're in and volatility clearly persists in the macro environment, institutional investors are looking at the macro factors in thinking about how to deploy capital. >> we're showing on our screens how those three ipos have done since their peaks and they're off by 20% and 40%, much worse than how the nasdaq has performed at least from their peaks. is the ipo window still open? do you think these companies were unique and they almost had to go out an arm or instacart? what does it mean for those candidates in the pipeline? >> they chose to go public, they didn't have to be public. i think the broader equity markets relate to the macro factors, and if you think about these factors, think about an

imminent government shutdown, potentially, about war in the middle east, about the risk of higher interest rates for longer. all of those impact risk appetite and i think you're seeing that play out in the market. >> so did it basically tell us the performance that maybe the window isn't wide open? do you expect we'll see more pickup early next year, or will it take longer? is there performance telling us conditions aren't great? >> i think the ipo markets are open, we've seen the industry leading companies can go public. i do think you'll see a broader set of companies look to go public in 2024. and that's when i expect you'll see more activity certainly around ipos. >> let's talk about m&a. the vcs i speak to, if the market isn't available for some companies, m&a is an option. we saw a deal recently acquiring a company for just under a billion dollars, and some say that's as good as you can get. the late stage investors got their money back. what do you think right now between the disconnect between

public and private markets? do you think that had that company gone public it would have been a better return? >> on m&a, i'll zoom out for a second. global m&a is at $2.2 trillion, down 29% year over year, down 32% relative to a five-year historical average. so we are undoubtedly in a lower volume environment but we are seeing increasing green shoots and activity particularly in tmt, areas like small and mid cap m&a, private equity, and so i'm optimistic for the coming quarters and years in terms of an uptick. as it relates to private companies and the decisions they make, it's hugely variable and dependent on a company specific situation. some companies are looking to go public and are preparing for ipos in the coming year. some companies are looking to stay independent and private for longer. other companies are considering alternatives.

i think the consideration varies dramatically depending on the individual company. >> that's what we're seeing. kim, thank you so much for your first appearance on cnbc. >> thank you, deirdre. >> we'll head it back over to you. >> thank you, deirdre and kim. here is what's ahead for this afternoon and tomorrow. earnings really kicking it up a notch. netflix and tesla, american airlines, at&t and a few regional banks. also tomorrow you'll hear from fed chair jay powell speaking at the economic club at noon. should be some headlines. a lot of fed speak before their quiet period. but he's the most important. >> kind of his last chance to solidify a message going into the meeting. >> right. and react to some of the stronger data points and see whether he buys into the, well, the longer rates are moving up and that might be doing the work for us. we've heard that from fed colleagues. if he feels that way, too, it will solidify the view they are done if not just on pause certainly for the next few months. >> what's interesting is november odds are low but not

necessarily the case for the meetings after that. >> december has crept up a little bit. it's below 50% for december still, but that's really -- we saw the move on the back of hot retail sales and will continue to see how the market digests all this data. for now everything has been bond bearish except for the fed speak and the outlook for rates and inflation. >> indeed. we'll see if we can hold these levels on stocks. let's get to "the half." carl, thanks very much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, the true state of stocks with earnings, interest rates and the war in the middle east impacting sent i. markets are on the move. the investment committee is here to guide you through all of that. joining me bryn talkington, joe terranova, jim lebenthal, steve weiss. i told you the markets are on the move. there you go, the stocks are down and rates are up. the 10 year, 4.91. joe, that's, to me, the biggest story. two things to keep your ey