off the energy parade, energy earnings pa trade. >> yeah, with american express particularly well heeled consumers, so, that's going to be one to watch and if there's a difference compared to the others. >> that's right. foreign policy address from president biden tonight. that does it for us at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. powell on pause. the fed chair says he's proceeding carefully after the aggressive campaign to break the back of inflation. so, why are stocks not cheering and why are rates still rising? we'll debate. that. plus, painful discovery. discover financial falling nearly 8% as credit loss provisions more than doubled for q-3. is this a warning sign about the consumer? and later, electric slide. tesla dropping 9% today. a pessimistic elon musk calling out high production costs, rising interest rates, and the slowing economy on the conference call last night. ring the bell -- a noted tesla

bull and our own tesla bear ready to drop the gloves on where the stock is headed next. >> i had no idea he was bearish on tesla. >> i'm melissa lee coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. we start off with jerome powell's pivotal speech here at the new york economic club. the fed chair hinted he's ready to pause rate hikes for now, saying the committee is proceeding carefully. but at the same time, powell also kept the door open for a move in december and beyond. and he added that while recent inflation data has cooled, still too high. stocks seem to mostly shrug off the chairman's comments, but they couldn't shake off the move in yields. the ten-year came within a hair, a whisper of 5% late in the day, and that triggered a slide into the close. the dow falling 250 points, while the s&p and nasdaq dropped nearly 1%. are investors turning away from

the fed's musings and mostly worried about yields, guy? yields are driving everything. >> rightly so. they should be. i'm not suggesting i'm right. the fed could say, you know what, we're lowering rates. ten-year yield is going higher. it's -- that genie is out of the bottle. they've done the damage they needed to do. they're a side show now and i'm sure rick santelli has some thoughts. ten-year yield is telling the story. you think of what's transpired over the last three or so weeks. yields had every opportunity to go lower in this flight to quality, given all the geopolitical risk and it did it for a day. we got down to 4.53, i think, and now here we are, basically approaching 5%. that is extraordinarily problematic for the market. it is also extraordinarily problematic for the companies that haven't felt the pain yet. >> we talk about the market. let's talk about stocks. four 1% moves today, in one day here. and so, to me, you have the vix closing above 21 for the first time in a very long time here, so, we've been wondering what would be the trigger, right, for

stocks, what would be -- listen, they've been correcting, like, no doubt about it. carter braxton worth gave us a stat. russell 3,000, half of the stocks in the russell 3,000 are below their october 2022 lows, okay? so, we are clearly in a bear market for large parts of the stock market. we've been highlighting that. concentration in some of the larger stocks, we get it. every cycle, they always have them. what's different this time to me is just -- it's getting narrower. we nigmight be losing some of t. if you think about what microsoft and apple have done since their last reports in july, what happened to tesla today. >> look at that chart. 5.001%. there you go. >> guy was calling it for awhile. so, i guess my point is, we're seeing the volatility getting widened here, a lot of stocks, a lot of sectors act very poorly and all of a sudden, that 5% thing is going to be on the front page of every newspaper tomorrow morning. >> what changes with 5%? >> look, 5% on the ten-year yield is a big round number that has an impact. my modeling actually says 6% is

a problematic area. but we've found in our testing over time that you're looking at the effective interest rate for public companies, it tracks more to the ten-year yield than the fed funds. >> steve? >> so, when you look at the russell, the russell 2,000, i think, 40% is unprofitable. the russell 3,000, 60% is unprofitable. that's why you have seven stocks that run the market. because those are the stocks that are profitable and have a huge balance sheet. so, no one has to worry about them raising money. if the market goes higher, those names will carry us higher. guy started off the show with powell. if you -- if you -- the fed governors have said the ten-year has done the heavy lifting for the fed. so, he's played, she loves me, she loves me not, way too many times. he was bearish and bullish. dovish, hawkish. on everything that he said today. so, when you look at -- should he be raising rates right now? we can probably say unanimously no, the market has done that for

him. the long end has done that for him. >> for now. >> for now. well -- what do you mean by that? do you think -- >> i mean, if there's data that comes in that shows inflation is still hot, i do not put it past the fed they will raise again. it may be off the table for november, maybe that's what the markets are pricing in right now, but for december, for beyond? i don't know. >> that's what i classify as a misstep, because i think they are too late to act and they stay too long acting. so, i think what we're all looking for is for the fed to back off now. the long and variable lags. is something broke? i think you would say yes, things have broken right now. the ten-year is probably significantly broken at this point. >> he did talk about the long and variable lag, saying that now markets are much more efficient, and, so, those long and variable lags may not be as long because the markets factor that in almost right away. he also, i thought, was interesting, addressed the notion that there may not be buyers. the fed has stepped away.

other -- this was -- the question posed to him about other countries stepping away in addition to the fed, you know, just before a huge wall of issuance is going to hit the market and he said, i don't think it's been that bad. you know -- >> i don't know what he's watching. i mean, that's fine. if this isn't bad, then what does bad look like? you know, and again, he has the data in front of him, good for him. clearly he's been watching this show. the buyers have stepped away. as a matter of fact, it's -- there's probably a very good chance that some of the historical buyers are probably sellers. the japanese, the largest owner of our treasuries, clearly they have issues, we talked about it for awhile. every day dollar yen goes higher, the yen weakens, is another day they have to try to defend their currency by raising do dollars. how do they do that? selling treasuries. you think retail is going to change? >> historically -- >> forget about historically. this is not about historically. the japanese are out of the game. they are not buying our stuff anymore. >> right, but the japanese and chinese are not -- japan and

china are historically in the sing -- low single digits buying our debt. the problem is qt. qt has been running off at an excessive rate forever. august 2022, qt doubled on a monthly basis. rates went from 2.64 on the ten-year to 3.8 in 30 days, because that doubled. powell never speaks about qt. no one talks about qt. qt is the elephant in the room that no one wants to deal with at this point. >> i don't want to deal with it. if i just look at the -- i'm just looking at the stock market. i go back to the sectors that act horribly. they just act horribly. if i look at the data we saw today, the home sales are back to levels from 2010. if you look at, again, i think the stock market actually badly, people, i'm just telling you. if you own etfs and they are heavily, you know -- and they are. they're geared towards microsoft and apple and all these things,

so, we get that. so, the thing we're trying to have you pay attention to is, as we lose one by one, i'm going to call them the mag seven, i know you don't like the full name, anything like that, but we might have just lost one today. i know we're going to talk about tesla today, but if you think about how poorly, again, how microsoft and apple have outperformed to the downside from the highs in july, i think they are kind of telling you something. we're going to know a lot more in the next couple weeks. i think there's a couple of disasters lurking out there. if you want to take tesla, okay, you want to extrapolate it to apple and you want to do it from a consumer standpoint, the next shoe to drop will be a decrease in enterprise spending. and we already saw this week, over the last week, we saw alphabet, microsoft and linkedin, they were quick to cut jobs, they are starting to cut again, okay? so, if enterprise spending starts to slow a little bit, and we're already seeing deceleration, the excitement in and around the a.i. -- the market's going down. we could be unchanged on the year as we get towards, like, out of q-3 earnings season,

especially if those guys down the party. >> are you worried about spending being cut or have corporations really tightened the belts in terms of hiring and the labor side of things? >> we read a lot of transcripts and we've been reading about tightening on labor, we've been reading about that forever, and the restructuring commentary feels like it's picking up. companies realize their pricing power is starting to erode a little bit. i think that's nudging them just a bit. and the other thing we noticed is, i'm seeing a lot more illusions to uncertainty about monetary policy. the fed, inflation, geopolitics now a bit, just impacting spending decisions, just having an impact on overall psyche. >> 5%, we lost it pretty quickly, i wonder if there was a positioning involved -- >> low end now? green lights for equities. >> buy them? >> you joke, but -- >> but it's not funny, because, i mean, i don't think people fully comprehend, and rick will talk about this, really what's going on here.

yields can go a lot higher than where we are right now for supply/gl supply/demand reasons. given everything we talk about, i mean, there's still no speaker of the house last i looked. i mean, that's not particularly bullish, either, so, be prepared. i don't think people understand what's happening. >> and biden is going to be asking for funding for ukraine plus israel. >> you just said something really important, you talked about, again, you know, fl the ability for companies to punch through costs is waning, okay, so, think about what are built into sp and 500 earnings estimates, expected 12% yearover year, earnings growth for 2024. net profit margins expected to be up in q-1 and q-2 of next year, 12% or so. it's just too rosy. just think about it. crude oil is trading 90 right now. like, so -- just think about all this. so, if we saw what happened to the consumer staples stocks, because there's worries about

pricing power, this is going to work its way to other parts of the economy, and tech is likely to be next. >> you raised your earnings estimates? >> yeah, we took them up. i'll say, for next year, i'm still at 232 and the consensus is 247. i've got margins coming in just a little bit versus '23, but going back to 2022 numbers. it's got enormous margin expa expansion, it's across a lot of different sectors. so, i think the street has really got to sit down and look at this pricing power issue and realize the margins are not going to come in. for more on the raging rates, let's bring in rick santelli. based on what you heard from powell, you think we could be h heading north of 13%? we crossed 5% here. >> i think over the next seven to ten years, i would not be shocked to see double-digit rates. it's not my base case, but it's highly probable.

look at what's happening this week. if you look at a chart that starts on the 13th of october, every session this week for ten-year note yields has staircased, meaning it's traded higher than the previous session's higshighs. that's extremely aggressive. let's contrast with what happens today in two-year. it traded above yesterday's highs, but the issue is, it traded below yesterday's lows. open it to a two-day chart, it's an outside session. so, many ask, why did you get so much volatility right after powell started, or stopped speaking in the equity markets, and i think that's it. outside days usually mean trend change, but in the short ma mat maturities, it's going to be lagging the aggressive tendencies on the yield curve. and when you consider the twos-tens spread today closed and minus 16 and change, that is the least inverted it's been since september of '22.

now, that isn't a long time, but it's significant. and, if you look at the reverse repo market, it is now a significant drop from its december highs of the end of last year, when it was at 2.6 trillion, 2.6 trillion. on tuesday, it was barely 1.1 trillion. so, that really augers for two dynamics. the first dynamic is, is that a lot of those issues are hitting the secondary market. and a lot of the investors and institutions that were filling that marking lot have taken those proceeds and they're buying t-bills, which is good, because the t-bill supply is so bloated. but your discussion about who is going to be there when the debt continues to grow and the issuance continues to be strong, if i was chairman powell, that's what i'd be pondering more than anything else. >> the steepening rick, the optimists would say it's a great sign, normalization, the pessimists would say, it's a bear steepener.

at levels we haven't seen as long as i've been doing this. thoughts on that? >> you know, my opinion is, it is not good news. yet, steepeners can be good news, but it's always compared to what's going on with the economy, what's going on with earnings, what are the undercurrents? the undercurrents i see are, you could look at the atlanta fed, you could look at what we're going to get next week in regards to third quarter gdp. but in the end, i read those beige book comments yesterday, as i'm sure everybody around the table did. it certainly didn't read like an economy that's producing at 3.5%, 4%. i'm a firm believer that the fumes that we've been running are fiscal stimulus. and that's going to take us so father. granted, it's taken us farther than many thought. but that's going to be the linchpin that changes everything. >> the big round number, 5%, the first time since july of 2007. what's our next stop here?

>> well, when it staircases like this and gun's hot, what i'm tell you, the next stop doesn't mean it's going to be a significant top or even a significant temporary top. but i would think right around 5.33 to 5.37 will be the next area i would expect consolidation. and think pacman when you're looking at this 5% level. every time we take a bite out of it, it's important, but to me, the most important issue about big levels is whether you close above them. not whether you trade intraday through them. and tomorrow is going to be tricky, because if we don't really get some horsepower through 5% early in the session, geopolitics will work against us later in the session. >> all right, rick, always great to get your take, thank you. rick santelli joining us from chicago this evening. 5.3% -- >> problematic for equities. inverse correlation. now, there's no bigger inverse

correlation to the ten-year, so, that's the most important thing, the ten-year yield. fed's balance sheet prepandemic, $4 trillion. fed's balance sheet postpandemic, $9 trillion. probably around $8 trillion now. they are not going to stop qt. that is the real problem that rates have, and that's why rates will continue to move higher. >> if rick is right and we do hit 5.35% fairly quickly, maybe in the next two, three weeks, what sells off? what is the most vulnerable in your view? >> so, i think it's essentially the things that have been propping up the market. the growth trade. which is already overvalued, crowded, in need of a correction and this just gives you the catalyst to get there. >> here's the good news. like we've been talking about. there are so many stocks that did so poorly, so many have fallen off the bottom right of their charts, they are down 20%, 25% from their highs. there's going to be a lot of good opportunities. i don't think we're going to crash. you can say, the last time the ten-year was up here was '07, before that, it was '00, the s&p got cut in half, but there's a

whole host of other things. the visibility just got a lot worse over the last, you know, few weeks about -- from a geopolitical standpoint. and if corporates are having issues, as it relates to their costs and possibly they're just waiting for demand to fall off, that's the sort of thing that could get those names going much lower, but again, if microsoft is down 25% from its highs and apple is down 25% from its highs, there's going to be a lot of good value. you're going to see relative strength. maybe it's in financials or something like that that have acted -- >> and the only way it's going to happen, it's a self-fulfilling prophesy that you'll get pushed back into those names like microsoft, so, yes, i agree youwith you, but i going to widen the gap between the value plays again, which has never been wider. >> right, and that -- just put a little fear into them. bau guy, it doesn't feel like there's a lot of fear in those names just yet, does it? >> it's funny. nvidia post earnings that 234night was trading 516, now $100 later.

microsoft starting to give it up a little bit, apple is hanging in there. i can't -- there's no perceptible fear right now. >> so, one thing i'll say that makes me sleep a little bit better at night on this issue, i don't sleep great, but a little better, is, if you go back over time, whenever we've had these big surges in ten-year treasury yields and i'm going back decades, it tends to be big chunky increases of 275 basis points or more, and stocks really get hurt to the downside. and we saw one of those happen that culminated last fall and when we put that low in the market in october last fall, shortly after that, yields took a bit of a breather, stopped going up at least for a little bit. that's one of the things that really helped power markets at the beginning of this year. i think there is still time to get out of this, if the other macro issues cooperate, because we won't hit that 275 basis point gap until we get to 6%. there's still time to get out of this without too much damage. >> the fun thing that we haven't

mentioned at all -- >> gold. >> well, gold. actually, there are -- >> who is that fun for? >> there's many things we have not mentioned, we've only been on for 18-plus minutes so far tonight. but i was going to mention the possibility of a credit rating downgrade again in the face of what's going on in washington. we can't elect a speaker, we're going to be spending a lot more money on international affairs. >> well, the bond market is trading as if that's -- we're on the precipice of that happening. would it be surprising if that happened? quite frankly, if any of those people were actually doing their job properly, it would have happened already, so -- yields saying, best time to plant a tree 20 years ago, the next best time is today. they should look at themselves in the mirror, because it makes no sense not to happen. coming up, is a bottom in for the chip trade? shares of taiwan semi jumping. and it's what the chip maker saying about the whole semi space that has investors coming in. that's next. plus, at&t jumping up,

netflix up. what's boosting these names when "fast money" returns.

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we've got a news alert on ripple. kate rooney has the details.

>> the s.e.c. is dropping its lawsuit against two high profile crypto executives, the founders of ripple. this was a civil suit, it had to do with what the s.e.c. said were illegal sales of the crypto-currency. xrp at the time was the third-largestcrypto-currency, it's fallen a lot since then. the allegations were called baseless. put out a statement in the last 20 minutes or so, saying, quote, instead of looking for the criminals stealing customer funds on offshore exchanges that were courting political favors, a nod to sam bankman-fried, he said the s.e.c. went against the good guys building a regulated business in the u.s. a judge agreed with their argument that roughly half of its xrp sales did not violate

investor protection sales. the other were institutional sales that could be on the hook. melissa, back to you. >> kate, thank you. rat kate rooney. the aiwan semi with the bigt profit drop in five years. they are expecting stronger pc and smartphone demand, their biggest business, as well as a tailwind from a.i. to help with the recovery in 2024. shares finishing the day up more than 3.5%. dan, you flagged this. >> yes, and they said that china's still weak, so, you know, this comes at a week when the biden administration tightened regulations. so, this is interesting. apple is a 20% customer, amd, qualcomm, okay, so, there's the smartphone and some of the pc staff, they're about 8%, you know, so that's doing a little better. nvidia, 5.5%. we knew that was an area that

was going to be strong here. it's interesting, this is a half a trillion dollar market cap company. we saw netflix up 16% or something, that was $160 billion market cap company. so, this was up 3% in market cap terms, kind of similarly, or whatever, but again, you want to see early signs of stabilization, a very cyclical sort of industry, and if you can kind of get the pc, obviously and the smart phone, those are the big ones, right? and nvidia, the gpu stuff, that's, like, the special sauce right now, you know what i mean? that's keeping things afloat. >> the ceo was confident sounding. confident of better growth in 2024. you don't use those words unless that's what you're seeing before. >> if you have that kind of clarity, good for him, i guess. goldman sachs added it to their buy list. $115 price target. all good things. the smh, if we have a chart going back to sort of november of 2021, textbook double top at

160. two out of the three might be on -- broadcom is holding in there, but by a thread. if the smh rolls over, the broader market has to follow. >> you talk about geopolitical, that's the thing that i'm worried most about, but the market can't quantify that. i think the chip space would be impacted to a very large extent -- >> even more so than it has been? >> i think things are going to get worse before they get better. nvidia is up 188% year to date, so, if you look at where it's support, it's closer to 400 than 420. bull if but if you look at micron, micron was looked to be affected by china to the tune of 20% of its revenue. it's probably more like 13%. look at the chart. it's the same year to date performance at intel, but micron's chart looks better to me, if you are looking for a cheaper way to play the chip

space that's more d-ram dependent versus nan. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. spilling the tea. and a netflix fee. a cellular surge for at&t, as earnings come in hot. and a huge boost for netflix, as more price hikes stream in. so suit up. these fast movers are next. plus, discovering losses. the company sinking hard as profits drop even harder. how credit risks are impacting the entire sector. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks dropping as investors digested the latest comments from fed chair jerome powell, saying inflation is still too high and would likely need lower economic growth. and right at the top of the hour, the ten-year treasury yield hitting 5%. that's the first time since july of 2007, 4.99 is where we are right now. afterhours action in shares of intuitive surgical. medtech company dropping hard after a revenue miss. the stock down 8% at this point. shares of at&t jumping 7% after reporting a beat on the top and bottom line, its best day since july. the carrier raising its free cash flow. and netflix also rallying more than 16% post earnings. the streaming giant announcing a price hike and a surge in subscriber numbers as the password sharing crackdown helped fuel new additions. this move in netflix, it may seem big, but brings us back to levels that we haven't seen since maybe september. not that long ago.

>> 3 1/2, 4 yearweeks ago. did it on 27 million shares of volume, which is probably not short covering, probably people getting into the name again that have sort of been waiting. i thought it would sell after after earnings, that was clearly incorrect. the trick is, does it continue this move lower that we've seen for the last year and a half. feels like it's too much today for me. i think you'll see it lower, maybe 375. >> the move in at&t is big. what did you say about at&t today? is h it hasn't moved in 20 years? >> i'm sure they're thrilled, but it's been grim death, in a word, for the last 20 years. you look at a chart, it's gone lower, and people, you know, the dividend, the dividend -- you lose the at&t dividend in a day, so -- >> maybe it's time for at&t to shine in this environment where

we want to have quote unquote safe havens. >> yeah, i think the safe haven trades are coming back into focus in what feels like a deteriorating sentiment environment. when they rise, it's like your market's in a vice. and so, whether it's, you know, telecom stocks, consumer staples that are getting better on valuations, even though their fundamentals are miserable, or utilities, i hear a lot of people with guy's intoe nation of, like, eh, but maybe i should look at this. that's the conversation that's starting to happen. >> i think it was colorful language -- >> on other shows, i could use the language. >> like -- >> like a crime show? >> hbo max? >> those late night shows. >> all right. coming up, credit card crumble. discover financial plummeting after a big profit drop. the signs of stress they're flagging the consumer. plus, is the ev trade running out of battery. demand fears growing as tesla drops. what elon musk had to say about dema in ndthe entire auto space.

don't go anywhere. more "fast money" right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." discover financial seeing its lowest close since early 2021, falling about 8% today. the stock now off 30% over the past three months.

the credit card company holding its earnings call today after reporting quarterly profit miss last night. discover telling investors its credit loss provisions more than doubled last quarter. so, could there be more pain coming? the ceo was talking in the conference call specifically about cracks in the consumer, household, the wealth effect is deteriorating. those are all not good for these stocks. >> yet we talk about -- people come on over and over again, tell us how healthy is consumer is, and i think they sort of conflate consumer spending, which is always there, with the actual health of the consumer, which right now is not there. you're seeing it from the dfs report and the numbers they talked about. >> it's not just on the lower end consumer. we talked about lvmh last week and the numbers they reported. look at american express, that is flat on the year now. down significantly from its 52-week high there are things in the stock market that are getting my antennas up that it's going to be a rockier road for

the consumer. >> nigel morris is capital one's former chief operating officer and managing partner at fintech vc firm qed investors. nigel, welcome to "fast money." you know this space intimately. i'm curious, how do you read this? because there is some thought that perhaps a discover financial reached too much in the pandemic for growth, so they extended their credit cards too much to too many people and it's just sort of digesting that now, or is it a real sign of deterioration in the consumer? >> it might actually be a bit of both. i think we -- it's very easy to lose sight of the fact that the credit card business is often the crown jewel in retail financial services. capital one is built on doing credit cards really well. and the returns on equity could be 25%, 30%, if done well. so, there's always a lot of incentive for banks to do more of it.

and look, the -- we were talking about a trillion dollars now of credit card dealts, $175 billion added since the fourth quarter of '21, so, a lot of growth. if we look at discover in particular, the chargeoffs are in the normal range, 3.5%, 4%, but it was the pace at which the chargeoffs went up that would draw your eye to be concerned. delinquency went up, too, and a whole host of compliance issues that were pointed to in the earnings call last night. so, as we -- as i take a step back and look at the health of the consumer, as you rightly pointed, and what that means for chargeoffs, on the positive side, is that unemployment is 3.8%. and the fact that people have jobs means that they can pay back their dealt. all things being equal. and the fact that the large credit card issuers have pulled back and tightened their criteria. that bodes well. on the other side of the equation there are a few things to watch out for. firstly, that student debt is kicking in this month, so, 40

million americans, $1.7 trillion, and the average person is of the 40 million people who owe is going to have to come up with $350 this month. that's a decent-sized number. that will hurt. the fact that growth rate is flowing, which means the denominator goes down, all things being equal, thore percentage will go up. americans were saving at 26% at the time of the height of the stimulus and at 7%, 8% before covid hit. now we're down to 4%. the point about spending, it's been incredibly robust, but my take is, it can't go on for much longer. so, net net, we're going to see a bubble of chargeoffs flowing through the system and the big question is, what happens to unemployment six, nine, 12 months from now? >> right, when that bubble theoretically pops or stretched to that limit. i'm wondering, because fintech, f fintech can be amazing, and i'm wondering if it's operating in

the same not good environment, where the consumer is challenged, it's operating the same macro environment that all the other traditional financials operate, so, what can fintech do better in this environment? >> well, certainly consumers and small businesses are suffering. there's no doubt they are, in this inflationary environment. they are dealing with unprecedented uncertainty. the leverage that fintech brings to the table is, it starts with a blank sheet of paper. largely digital, leveraging off new data sets, being really transparent with the consumer and looking to solve the consumer's problem, rather than, you know, be part of a large machine. the banks s are really pretty solid and very well run, but innovation is really tough. if you are not growing your revenue, you can't attract world class talent, it's hard to be a credit karma, a stripe, or a square. companies that are fintechs that now reached escape velocity.

so, for fintechs, the opportunity is really to offer services to people that the banks don't offer services too well, or candidly, the banks don't care to officer services to. and half of america has trouble getting a credit card. many banks don't really want to serve people with a fico score under 650, because largely, they don't have much money. they don't have much money. and you don't want to lend them money. really, how do you make money from them? so, this has been the -- this is where the chimes and the currents and the alberts, and the mission lanes have been able to step into that space. so, i think fintech is doing a terrific job. if you look at the net promoter scores of the fintechs, they're 70s and 80s. the banks are in the teens. that doesn't mean they can't do more, and there's more opportunity, but fintech is really there. >> you guys are early stage investors in fintech at qed, and, you know, through the lens that we look at it, to mel's point about fintech right now, some of the worst acting stocks in the stock market are fintech

stocks. >> i've noticed that. >> paypal, a new 52-week low today. it's been cult it in half, down from its 2021 high. when you see that behavior, how does -- your investment outlook in the private markets, how does it feel relative to what's going on in the public markets right now? >> you know, the image i have in my head is that of an ekg. things were bopping along really well, qed existed before fintech was a label. we started this 15 years ago. things were bopping along, inflation -- sorry, we had covid hit, massive government stimuli, valuations went sky high, largely as a result of fomo, fear of missing out, and massive injection of private equity and hedge fund money. at the top, fintech -- public fintechs were trading at 20 times revenue. and then putin invades, supply chain disruption, cost of money goes up, cost of money -- amount

of money pulls back. and stocks fall like a stone. they fall to four times revenue, so, they fall from 100 units to 20 units. massive disruption. and then they've been coming back. if they're profitable, and if they have good business models. we had five companies in our portfolio go public in '21. all of them are now profitable and all of them have been climbing back. it's going to take some time to come back, but good business models that are profitable, key, and growing at a decent rate, that are skinltly hitting their ironings are coming back, but it will take some time, because the excesses of 2021 are going to be a significant hangover on the fintech universe. >> nigel, thank you for coming by. hope you'll visit us again soon. >> i'd like to, thank you. >> another knock on fintech that a lot of these publicly fintech firms, they haven't weathered this business cycle, so, how can they do that now? >> you could say for a swath of other industries, but fintech because they're so rate sensitive.

i don't know the answer to that, and a lot of them are learning the hard way. american express tomorrow, before the bell. fascinating. because we've seen loan loss provisions, credit -- if american express starts to say similar, at a different end of the spectrum, then it's going to get really interesting really quickly. >> american express, obviously, has that higher level income person that uses the card, so, that's the one that's been outperforming on a relative basis. just watch the unemployment level for all of these names. that ticks up, you sell everything. coming up, the ultimate tesla showdown. gary black and dan nathan go head-to-head on an ev maker that might be losing its charge. we'll slug it out. but first, blackstone blues. the asset manager dropping like a rock. worst day in more than a year. what the company's coo had to tay this morning about real este challenges right now. more "fast money" after this. the cheapest gas in town. and which supermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. something else that's good to know? if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get more healthcare benefits - through a

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is. we're seeing a sharp decline in new construction. down 30% to 70% in this last quarter in most areas of commercial real estate, and that lays the framework, the groundwork, for a future recovery in value, so -- yes, the near term picture, more challenging. we like to be long-term investors. >> welcome back to "fast money." that was blackstone president and coo jonathan gray on "squawk box," trying to find a silver lining after his company reported weaker than expected earnings. guy, in the past, you've been a fan of blackstone. >> it's had a great bounce over the last six months, very

quietly up to 115. it's interesting, it was a disappointing quarter, i think what took the stock down was some of his commentary. very honest about what's going on in the environment. rates, obviously, are hurting. so they see it first-hand. you got to figure, where's the level to get back in this stock? and i'll tell you, this 93 level makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons. traded 9 million shares today, not enough to get me excited. if you have a 30 million share day, you want to take another look. tesla slumping over 9% on the back of yesterday's lackluster results. after the break, we'll ring the bell on an electric bull/bear ttbale royale. "fast money" is back after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." time to take the gloves off in tonight's times square takedown. we're battling over the future of tesla. our bear, fit and fighting, trim dan nathan. gary black is on the fast line tonight. we had some technical issues with his picture. gary, you still like the stock here? a lot of people were commenting on the conference call about elon sounded really down and out. he blamed everything under the sun, higher interest rates, a bad macro environment, geopolitical, but this is still your second-largest position. >> yeah, look, the conference call was lousy. earnings were lousy. because they missed on the most important metric, which is auto gross margin, and the quality of the earnings were light, because

it was all based on lower tax rate. but when you think about the stock, it's trading now 52 times, it's growing its volumes in earnings at 35% between now and 2027. i am a growth manager, i can't find stocks to trade at 52 times that are growing at 30% to 35%, we still like it. >> in terms of volumes, you noted on twitter that past price cuts didn't yield an increase in volume, and there's concern now that tesla will continue cutting price in order to compensate for higher rates, which hit the consumer in the form of the auto loan, auto financing. so, you know, to what end do they -- do they cut price at this point, if you say that the incremental volume is just not materializing? >> yeah, there's been no demand the last 50, despite what elon says. you look at where the estimates for 2023 were at the beginning of the year, and then you look at where they are today, they're contactually the same. you go out to 2024, they're actually lower.

so, you're not getting any volume growth for these price cuts, so, we've been advocating stock cutting price, put some money into advertising, use that as another tool in your marketing toolkit, to try to get more volume. because i don't think by cutting the price of the model y from $50,000 to $48,000 is going to get you more volume. and i'll go so far as to say if you look at monthly payments of a model y today, if you took out a five-year auto loan, and rates have gone from 4% to let's say 7.5%, but the price of the model y has come down by 20%, the payments are actually lower today than they were a year and a half to two years ago. so, i don't -- i don't understand the logic of why they have to, you know, keep cutting the price. and look, i think at the end of the day, they're going to see that they're not getting any demand elasticity, despite what they said last night. so, we think there might be another price cut and we may see margins come down a little bit more, but i go back to, i got a

stock trading at 52 times next year's earnings, growing at 35% a year and i can't find stocks that trade a peg above 1.5. >> right, gary, but that revenue growth is decelerating, right? the delivery growth is decelerating. i remember listening to you in april, after the q-1 earnings report, and i think you said that you sold part of your position. you were not happy with the price cuts. that was all the way back in april. and if you look at this stock and i look at now the three reactions the day after its reported its q-1, q-2, and q-3, it sold off 10% each time. so, the big money out there is selling on those days. you seem to be very frustrated with his strategy. you seem to not buy the math that he's giving. you know, and the cfo, you know, who does all the math, right, he left a couple months ago, without really a statement or anything like that. so, maybe there's some funny math going. and i listen to the same call that you listened to, and i give you a lot of credit. i was reading your twitter this

morning, you werehonest about it. you are selling stock here at 220? because it looks like the fundamentals of this company, at least as it relates to the autos, are deteriorating. and simple math is not working for this company right now. why are you sticking around, waiting for that growth to decelerate further if that's the -- if that's -- and we haven't even had the recession yet. so, that's the other point i would make. >> yeah, well, we got a couple catalysts ahead. so, one, the cyber truck is going to be huge. if you go out and you talk to pickup truck owners, and you have to talk, you can't just talk to 65-year-olds who drive f-150s. you talk to 30-year-olds, 40-year-olds, we go out and we do that, what you find is, people love the look of the cyber truck. the cyber truck will be out in about two weeks, it's going to be a rolling billboard. and you're going to see it and you're going to get excited about it, and you may not buy a pickup truck, but you're going to go to the tesla website, you're going to say, that's neat, what is it? i can't imagine the social media

buzz that you're going to get when that cyber truck starts rolling all across america, and there's a halo effect that will come with that, that will ignite the entire franchise. two, they didn't talk about this, i'm not sure why, buzz there will be at some point an fsd licensing deal with another oem, probably going to be like a toyota or a honda, and that's going to get people very excited, because there's going to be other fsd licensing deals. and the third thing is that the energy business, which has always been very small, is now the highest margin business, it's 24% margins. the auto business is 16%. that thing tripled in the third quarter versus the third quarter a year ago. people aren't putting any value whatsoever on that, so, i think there's a bunch of catalysts ahead, and the $7,500 ira credit is going to go to off-invoice. i got a lot of catalysts. you're right, the volumes have been decelerating. if they hit 1.8 million for the year, that means their volume growth is only going to be 18%.

but i think they can get back to 30%. >> we have to leave it there. we'll have you back, hopefully. gary black of future funds on tesla. up next, final trades.

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with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. final trade time. steve? >> choppy price action, but grayscale. >> lori? >> energy has a lot of room to run. cheap, good dividends, good balance sheet and oil is staying high. >> thank you for joining us.

d dan? >> tesla's biggest bull on twitter doesn't seem that bullish here. i would not be a buyer. >> great guests. >> i like his rock paper notes. my kind of gold. >> gold. agnico-eagle mines. >> thank y fouor joining us on "fast money." you back here tom 5:00 for more "fast." "mad money" with jim cramer starts now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but to eblth and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. the stock market isn't always a friendly place. it can be volatile. it can b