the middle east crush that deal between -- is it liv or liv? >> liv. >> if they can't get that right. >> i think liv tyler is the way i remember it. >> and the pga tour. it is friday, october 20th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box." we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. okay. it's friday. we made it here. it is raining in new york city at this point. there are red arrows when you look at the u.s. equities at

this hour. these are modest declines. dow down 71 points. s&p futures off 11. nasdaq down by 44. at this point, the dow is on track for its fourth negative week in the last five and that is because of the treasury yields. they have been pushing higher and higher. the ten-year yield is 4.95%. in fact, it did cross that 5% line that we were watching. hovering at 5%. yesterday, just after 5:00 p.m., the ten-year yield hit the 5% level briefly. the last time we hit that level was july of 2007. yesterday's move cameafter fed chairman pojay powell spoke and kept the door open to more rate hikes. >> we have models for everything and formulas for everything. we have to be focused on what the economy is telling us. even taking lags into account.

what is it telling us? does it feel like policy is too tight right now? i would have to say no sdp. >> we will talk about rates and more with raphael bostic. until recently, bostic has said we're done. jay powell said yesterday at the economic club of new york, where he was speaking, ideally the market has done it and if that continues, they would not have to necessarily raise rates more. he said the economy is looking very good. right now, this does not look like a policy that is restrictive. >> key words. right now. that's the problem. one week or two weeks or a month from now, we could look back and say you were way too restrictive. how about this? recent economic data shows ongoing progress toward goals. what are the goals? >> to get inflation down.

>> no, no. recent economic data shows we're making progress toward our goal. the economy is moving. your goal -- >> it is not on jobs market. >> it is never a leading indicator. >> you are right. the alternative to this and this is what mohamed laid out. the fed should predict instead of relying on data. in the past, they have been really bad at it. which scenario do you want? the idea he keeps talking about data dependent? >> they are predicting it will not slow. if you use the rear-view mirror -- >> if you parse it, they are fine sitting and waiting. they will be data dependent saying they are not necessarily going to act, but if you see other numbers come through that indicate differently, you might get back into the game. >> if they stopped two months

ago, there were a lot of people that said this is the last one. a lot of people that were willing to go out on a limb and say i can see ahead a little bit. it is obvious to me we're in restrictive territory. meanwhile, the fed has not found it. >> restrictive territory doesn't do anything to the markets. jay powell is saying that. he is in a different position. it is like the treasury secretary saying we don't want a strong dollar. >> a lot of people said it was obvious to them that the fed was finished. >> they may or may not be right. >> we may have overshot. the journal says it could be -- now we could have a mild recession. economic activity. it is set to weaken in the u.s. leading to a shallow recession next year. >> i agree with you and understand that. you are probably right. i think you are probably right, however, all the people who want

him to come out and say we're done -- >> he did say it. finally. after everyone else said it two months ago. three months ago. four months ago. >> it is easy to be an arm chair quarterback in this scenario. >> especially when you are just on tv. i can change it every two weeks. then again -- >> i'm not talking about you. the chorus of people. >> i'm channelling those people. if you go back, i guess we realize how bad they are at this from how long they thought inflation wasn't a problem. they couldn't look ahead back then. why should we think they could now? >> i agree. i would like to see them stop raising rates, too. i think people who want him to come out and say that emphatically are missing the point. they will not say it. i think they bought themselves time. >> the '70s and '80s had never

happened, then i think it would be ease eveier for them. in the back of their minds, they have this fear. a shallow recession is probably not as bad as just inflation that goes on for a period of years. stop and start fed policy where you don't kill it and it comes back and rears its ugly head. >> i saw him yesterday. i'm emphatic, too. >> i watched it. i said on the air that you have this job that nobody needs this. you know, i think liesman said it. at your age, why are you still doing this? what are you talking about? he's fine. he can do whatever he wants. >> he was asked about that yesterday. he said he does take the job very seriously. he believes it is an important thing. >> that is what a public service is to take this incoming from

people like not just me, but other people. >> i think you are probably right. i think the fed is probably done. i think they should be done. i don't think they want to raise rates more. >> 8%. in japan, you know, suddenly rates are surging there. closing in on 1%. >> let them float. >> it might happen some day. >> we have no one in the house. there are supposedly three leaders. mccarthy, jordan and mc mchenry. >> what about scalise? >> those are the three right now who are talking for the body as they are in the position, but not. it is the third time. will it be third time is a charm for jim jordan and his bid to become house speaker? he had viewer vo-- fewer votes

his second vote. he ran into resistance from conservatives. jordan is not expected to close the gap on the 22 votes keeping him from becoming speaker. in fact, i like all three. i have feelings about a lot of different politicians. i like patrick mchenry a lot when he has been on. i like jim jordan. that's is a controversial thing to say. mccarthy, i have respect for him. i don't know if he calls it gaetz and the crazy eights there. interesting piece from kimberly. every man is king. that is what we have right now. that doesn't work. >> any one person can shut it down. >> patrick mchenry is a man of principle. i kid him about that. where he said if you expect me

to completely break with convention and start passing laws when i'm not the actual speaker and that is the way it has to be, i'll quit if that is what you are expecting. >> he's been very firm about that. it will be difficult to change his mind. when mccarthy was here earlier this week and talked about it, he said watch the vote count with jordan. if the number of holdouts goes down, watch. it went up. it doesn't signal support. >> i can't imagine he can get some of the individuals in biden districts where the grasp is tenuous at best. if you vote for the flamethrower like jordan. president biden delivering the rare speech from the oval office laying out the nation's case to provide more aid to ukraine and israel. even won over some typical

critical people of the president who said it was one of his best and strongest performances to date, eamon javers. >> reporter: fascinating to watch the reaction on fox and others. president biden found the line linking conflicts and made an argument for why americans should be invested in the success of ukraine and israel. >> hamas and putin represent different threats, but they share this in common. they both want to completely annihilate the neighboring democracy. >> reporter: beyond that, the president explained why it is important to stop terrorists and tyrants. >> why does this matter to america? when terrorists don't pay a price for terror, when dictators don't pay a price for aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more

destruction. they keep going. the cost and threats to america and the world keep rising. >> reporter: biden made an oblique reference to china without naming the country. would-be aggressors would be emboldened by lack of american resolve in israel or ukraine. on the home fraont, the presidet sought to say he sees concerns and all americans must come together. finally, biden saw contrast with the american-led world of commerce and markets and hamas version of rage and war. we expect to learn more details this morning about the president's budget request for military aid to both countries and get a better picture of whether that package can pass in what you have discussed a deeply divided and dysfunctional congress. back to you. >> all right. >> wow. >> what do you guess?

eamon, we ask this every day. i don't think people who are in leadership positions in the house have any idea what comes next. what is the betting line? >> reporter: it is not clear there is anybody in the republican congress to get to 217 votes. what do you do with that? the reality is the republican party has broken down and cannot agree on a single leader for the conference in the house of representatives. what do you do? i have been watching for hakeem jeffries to come in off the sidelines and persuade five or six republicans to switch parties and join him. that is what happened when he switched parties. just one man doing that. you see five or six people doing that here. the question is if hakeem jeffries wants to be speaker of the house in the last year of the presidency where you have the president polling in the 30s and not a lot of legislation going to get done in the

election year. you know, democrats might not want the speakership right now. can they reopen the house at all? i don't see a solution here. i'm not an expert on this, but i have been hanging around capitol hill for a long time. we have never seen a situation like this, guys. >> i just never -- no. the horror of not those five, but a different eight to have kevin mccarthy as speaker. they were horrified by that. can you imagine the horror of the average republican congressman to actually be somehow involved with hakeem jeffries in a gop-led house? who would that be, eamon? >> reporter: the first thing you do if you are hakeem jeffries and you want this, the first thing you do is look at the list of republicans in districts that

joe biden won and won overwhelmingly. you look at those people and say what would it take to bring them across. do you have to promise them a triple seat? >> it would be easier to put mccarthy back. he could peel off four of the eight to get him back in. >> reporter: it sis a different block. >> you weill not find five people. they are turncoats. >> they would run as democrats for re-election. >> they would. they would. >> it won't matter. >> right. >> promise you the chairmanship. >> it would be a bold and dramatic move. it is unprecedented in the house. it has been done in the senate. does he actually want it? biden's poll numbers are very low. >> it would be easier to peel off four of the crazy eight and

put mccarthy back in. he had 96% of the republicans. 96%. >> remember, easier for who, joe? i'm talking about what hakeem jeffries play is and are you talking kevin mccarthy's play. is it easier or harder? >> out of the 217 you need. it is easier to peel off those four than five to go with jeffries. unless they turn into democrats. then they were never republicans. >> it doesn't necessarily mean that. it means the republican party has failed to build a coalition to lead the house of representatives. you have the republican party fracturing into smaller parties. the maga party and the eight and you have the -- >> bad enough right now. that's like nuclear to get as far as how bad it would be to do that. >> the question is how bad would it be for the five or six? good for those five or six

depending on the perspective is and what they want in their careers. that is an open issue. i don't know jeffries would make that move. biden's poll numbers are low. it is the last year of the pres presidency. if you are jeffries, you might not want to do it. nobody will flip unless jeffries supports them. >> eamon, thank you. eamon javers. when we come back, big clouds for solar stocks. that sector under pressure this morning. we will have the names to watch and we see weight loss drugs in kids' near future. we will talk about that next. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities. experience, expertise, excuse.

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. welcome back. shares of solar companies plapl plunging this morning after the ceo calls cancellations and expecting lower fourth quarter revenue. solar edge contributed this to higher inventory and slower installation rates. you can see the impact the fed is taking. solar edge is down 25%. you have enphase off 15% p.

sun run and sun power down 7%. first solar down 5.25%. big concerns for demand overall. >> i was captivated reading this story. the green power grid isn't coming. i guess the point that is being made is that solar and wind are never close to where the power is being used. you need miles and miles of grid, of metal, to connect to take the power from where it is generated to where it is used. and we need the iaea which said we need 49.7 million miles of transmission lines which would go around the earth 2,000 times if you tried to get to be built or replaced by 2040. the way you get that metal is buying metal from coal-fired

plants in china. we're never going to get there. >> it is not just a matter of getting the metal for the power lines, but then a problem with permitting to run the transmission lines across places. this is the issue for anybody who watches this closely. >> that's what you need to get to the ev, the number of people to get those to net zero. that's what you need. check out the shares of the weight loss drugmakers. i have given this story to you, becky. they never do. bloomberg reporting novo nordisk and eli lilly are testing weight loss drugs for kids as young as 6 years old. do you feel okay? >> you never ask a woman how much she weighs. >> i know. do you take a pill for

everything? >> you remember fen-fen? >> we found out running twice a week gives you as much endorphins instead of taking a pill. >> if you have been down this road where you have seen fen-fen, you wonder about the side effects and if people can do this or if this seems too good to be true, maybe it is. maybe this is a new thing. i have been wondering if this shuts down your desires for things or change your personality overall? drinking you don't crave? >> are the drinks you are looking forward to having something you like? obesity is horrible. >> there are people who can use the help. my bigger problem is people who are using it who don't need to be using it. the off label stuff if you want to fit in a dress this weekend or something. >> i know what you mean. or not a dress.

i don't want ozempic face either. joining us is stephanie link from hightower. stephanie, looking at the markets, what is the most important thing you are watching? the earnings coming in or the latest comments from jay powell or what is happening in the treasury market? >> i think it is all three, becky. obviously, everybody has powell on the mind. i think there was something for everyone from his comments why yesterday. he did acknowledge that we are starting to see tightening conditions, especially if you look at the long end. he also talked about remaining data dependent. next week is a the really big week. we get a first look at the third quarter gdp. atlanta fed tracker is 5.4%. we will not see that at 5.4%. we will see trend. the other data point is core pce next friday. that should be 3.7%.

still elevated. we know the fed looks at this number carefully. they want it to be 2%. we know inflation is making progress coming down, but it is still too high. that is what people are grappling with. are they done or not done? i think they are done. the economy has been very resilient. i think that will lead to better than expected earnings. we had 17% of companies report earnings so far. a small sample set with 78% are beating. eventually earnings will matter. we have to really watch what's going on with the geopolitical side. the fed with an lot of moving parts. that should bode well for the year-end rally. >> it feels like an inflection point and people figuring out what you laid out. have you added or dropped anything from your portfolio as you figure out what is coming

next? >> you know earnings season is the silly season because stocks react really dumb sometimes. yesterday, lam research reported a good number. i added to it because it fell 6%. why did i add? they beat earnings and revenues and gross margins rose 129 basis points. operating margins rose 319 basis points. these are year over year figures. it fell because they did not confirm the memory market has bottomed. the stock rallied 50% year to date because ex-p pepectations for memory to be bottoming. they increased fab equipment spend. they have better than expected and higher margins. the earnings power is $40 a share. none of that changed yesterday. i thought the reaction was silly. i added to that one. >> stephanie, we appreciate talking to you and hearing your thoughts. i think you are dead on when you

look through the numbers and try to separate. have a great weekend. >> you, too. coming up, is generation x ready for retirement? if you ask our producer, that's a big no. can the big generation of nirvana and grunge catch up? we have ideas next.

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lifestyle. >> some generation xers are missing out on ways to save more. here are three steps employees can take. fully fund 401(k). you can put away $22,500 this year or a catch-up contribution if you are 50 or older. take advantage of the roth 401(k). unlike a regular 401(k), you don't have to pay taxes on withdrawals. make an after tax contribution if you can. this is a little known option to let you save $66,000 in 2023 or $73,500 with the catch-up contribution if you are 50 or older. this includes employer matches and other planned depass -- deposits. >> what if you don't have a retirement plan at work? >> if you don't have a retirement plan at work, do an

individual 401(k) or if you are 50 or older, go up to the limit in 2023. that is one way to do it. there are also state facilitated retirement plans where the employer doesn't have a 401(k) and you can auto enroll in the account. you may not be able to put inasmuch as a 401(k), but gives you a savings if your employer doesn't have a plan. >> if you are just starting now, you will miss the compounding interest if you put in at 22 or 25. it is better than nothing. you better get to work on it. you may have to work longer sdplc. >> you may have to work longer or make lifestyle changes. you are not taking full advantage. they don't want to leave free money on the table. they are contributing up to the company match thinking that is

fully contributing to the 4 401(k). >> i want to come over to give you a hug, but i don't want to hear from hr. you included me in the generation x. >> 43 to 50. >> we. yes, i love you. let's keep it going. we. we. yeah. 58. keep it going. sharon. years ago, i would have, because it made me so happy. when bewe come back, presidt biden making the case for billions more in aid to ukraine and israel. will congress open up the checkbook in the name of global security and can the house get nothing done without a speaker? we will dig into that next. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: your money is sponsored by empower.

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president biden making the case for war time aid for israel and ukraine in a primetime address to the nation last night. the president called his funding request, in his words, a smart investment that will pay dividends for american security for generations. the white house is expected to send congress a request for roughly $100 billion in aid. for more on this, let's bring in

heidi heitkamp. she is now university of chicago director of politics and judd gregg. thank you both for joining us. heidi, at this point, you can find some dissent on, i think, maybe either one of those prospects. israel or someone who thinks further support of ukraine is a bad idea. >> i think it was really smart for the president to combine the two. the argument for american security is the same. i think there is much more support for israel for additional dollars for israel than ukraine. you see it in the freedom caucus who says i want this separated.

i heard it yesterday. congress member from tennessee saying this. so, biden and the democrats, and i think the rationale republicans will say keep them together. the argument is the same. we desperately need to get this money to these failing or these struggling democracies who are up against this discretion. what the fly in the ointment is we don't have a functioning house. that is not a good look for the republicans. >> judd, can you explain it? we don't always have to point fingers. there is a piece in the journal today. a world without american deterrence and a gradual retreat in this strategic pacivity led the world to spin out of control. i would have to say the last administration had an anti-neo component that we don't need to be everything to everybody. that puts us in this position

now where we can watch from afar. when did that start? how long ago would you say? >> i think it did start with president trump. basically, he touched this vvai of had in the political system. erashe raised it higher. he undermined our national security. that was his approach. he thought we could go it alone and be a majority of one in a world that needs a united effort of allies. i thought president biden's speech last night was exceptional. i'm not a great admirer of what he has done so far, but i thought it was an exceptional of what wthe american role should e in the world. we have to lead in the area of

defending democracy. we have to lead in the area of defending the market economies. this was a good speech. it could have been given by george w. bush. i think it was essentially a george w. bush speech about how you engage internationally to protect our interests. that is what it is about. protecting our interests. i thought he did a superb job. we have a third party in the house of representatives with a number of folks who don't want to pursue this program and are isolationis isolationists. this government should not be a government of unanimity. you shouldn't have to have 100% to get things done. that is the case in the house for the speaker. that should not be the system. heidi is very accurate when she says you have to straighten out the house to get these things done. it appears to me what the president has proposed should produce a strong bipartisan bill

in the senate. hopefully they will pay for it. it will be a bipartisan bill and sent to the house. the question is how does the house handle it since they don't have a way to bring legislation forward? i hope this along with the obvious dysfunction of the house would cause the house to start members who have been recalcient to figure out how to get a speaker. my guess is mccarthy will be the next speaker again. he seems to be the guy to get closest to majority. >> heidi, listening to judd and george w. bush and i could not help but think of the flip side of too much, perhaps, intervention and the endless wars we now look back on in iraq and afghanistan. we were trying to do the right thing there. i don't know, judd. that did not turn out well for

us. >> on george w. bush, we had been attacked just like israel was attacked. >> not by iraq. judd, we weren't attacked by iraq or afghanistan. >> if you don't believe that, you didn't look at what is happening on the ground. iraq, you can argue about. afghanistan, you won't. >> we will not make progress relitigating the bush and iraq and afghafghani wars. these are not boots on the ground. this is the different from the early 2000s. judd is right. israel was attacked, not the united states of america. the bottom line is we have got to have a national security policy that includes helping our

allies. this movement away from global interaction changed when biden became president. how far he can take this is a question of how far he can bring along a majority in the house of representatives. it is a creitical time and it i the worst time for the house to be dysfunctional. they have got to get it together. you know, this is going to get combined with other things the spending. we have to get our debt and deficit. judd made a good point. how do we pay for these billions of dollars? we have to havee cannot get the have a functional arm of government. shame on them. i don't think it will be mccarthy. i think it will be somebody who voted for all three. >> they are telling me we have to go. judd, is there a number where you would draw the line in ukraine? what if this goes on for another two or three or four years?

is there a number where you say okay enough or are you talking about a blank check? >> i don't think the number is the issue. the issue is whether or not ukraine can survive as a democracy in the face of an invasion from the dictator. >> would you go to $1 trillion over the next three or four years? >> i doubt that is the number. >> where would you draw the line? >> i will go to whatever number is necessary to overthrow. if you don't stand up -- it is not the money on the table, but our freedom and the freedom of other democracies. >> you understand how there may be some people who say let us see what the plan is. that's all. >> i think we need more transparency from ukraine on where this money is going. we know some is being mis

misallocated. we can get transparency and still help the people over the forces taking over ukraine. specifically putin. >> they say we have to go, heidi. you are complaining about the house. i think you are lovingt, i though. heidi and judd, thanks. "squawk box" will be right back.

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digital broker convoy has broken down. the company told employees it is shutting down operations because of the massive freight recession. the company secured $260 million in 2022 in capital and valued at $3.8 billion 18 months ago. convoy is the five-time disruptor that rank ed 47 on ths year's list. you hear of yellow shutting down. >> the economy is still cranking and they call that? >> i wonder if they had any debt. maybe it is harder to get through? maybe they had a lot tied to yellow when yellow failed. there were other options that came through. convoy was working. if the major company you are

connected to -- i don't know. we have to look deeper into it. >> that's the first time we have done that. >> made stuff up? >> yeah. >> major freight recession. look at the transports. they are down significantly. >> oh, no. >> in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. i did note as you did that the president of the united states, a full supporter of israel, still laid down three markers for israel's leaders last night. talk about that. >> absolutely. the first was on what israel is doing. he basically said, don't make the same mistake we didafter 9/11. essentially, be smart. don't make foreign policy just with your heart. make it with your head. that, to me, was essentially a marker.

don't go in too big and don't stay for too long. then it was how israel did it. that was the reference to the laws of war that you have to take all sorts of steps to make sure that civilians are not injured against the siege and so forth. then lastly, whenever the dust settles, he put down a marker about the two-state solution. that ultimately there needs to be a political track that absent the political track, the only game in town is terrorism. so, if we don't want hamas to have a monopoly on promoting what they describe as palestinian interests, we have to empower other palestinians with the hope that their legitimate political aspirations can be satisfied. three specific markers. what israel does, how it does it and what comes after. quite interesting. >> let's bring in spokesperson for the israeli defense forces major libby weiss. we have seen pictures this morning, live pictures of tanks massed at the border with gaza.

i don't expect you to reveal your war plans on national television here. are you fully expecting to go across the border sometime soon? >> well, we are waiting the government's decision. but, of course, in the meantime, we're increasing our preparedness in terms of troop training and operational planning. but we, of course, will be ready whenever the government makes their decision. >> are you confident, major, ci gazahe

specifics on that. of course, we'll facilitate whatever decision will be made by the government in terms of that corridor. >> major, if you were to go in, the israeli defense forces were to go in, what is your understanding of your definition

of success he is supposed to put all this other stuff aside.

but we boycotted olympics. we've been boycotting olympics. there are geopolitical things that go on. i guess we shouldn't expect it to be perfect. but i think that the pga did all they could to try to stave off what was happening. but then money took over. but you knew once you decided to sort of go along it with, you knew something like this could happen. you knew who your partners were. >> it's always been very tenuous. and this deal was announced in june, the so-called framework agreement, people thought it was a done deal. it was a long contract and a lot of legal ease. it was pinky promises to try to work together and see if we can get something, you know, consummated. but, in fact, there is nothing binding. there is no hammer in that agreement. and, so, now a lot of american-based money has realized this whether it is private equity from new york,

silicon valley, vcs, even hollywood money, they're trying to get into golf. they're trying to blow this deal up so they can push the saudis aside. and that's what made it so complex. these negotiations. for the pga tour, if they take on this u.s.-based money that will certainly help, you know, sell this new product to the american fans and to the players and to congress which has been scrutinizing in whole situation very carefully. but if they, the saudis get cut out of a deal, they take away t investment, the public investment fund has a big checkbook and now they're upset and ready to start picking off more players. the stakes are very high for the pga tour how they handle this negotiation going forward. >> we have to go. life goes on. phil mickelson says there's a bunch of well-known players that want to join liv.

they're having fun making all that money. this is something we have to talk about further. you may need another book or add something at the end. you need a few more chapters. it's not over. but thank you for being with us this morning. >> you got it. thank you. >> okay. >> great market collapse, prices have come down for shipping since the pandemic cleared up. happened at the same time. debt prices were going up. the guy said crushing the progress at the same time it was crushing our logical strategic requirement. that's what happened with convoy. all right. when we come back, we're waiting for american express to report quarterly results. we'll bring u sus yoreltand the reaction from that. the stock is up by 88 cents.

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benefits, so you sleep better night after night. and now save up to $500 on our new sleep number smart beds. sleep next level. shop for a limited time only at sleep number. we have models for everything. we have formulas for everything. as a practitioner, we have to, you know, be focused on what the economy is telling us. even if taking lags into account. what is it telling us? does it feel like policy is too tight right now? i would have to say no. >> that's fed chairman jay powell keeping the door open to more rate hikes. we'll speak to atlanta fed president in an exclusive interview. >> president biden making his pitch to americans that the united states should spend billions more on supporting israel and ukraine. a look at what it means for your investments with pimco's public

policy head. >> and bitcoin getting a bounce this morning. excitement builds for a spot bitcoin etf. will it actually get approved? that and more. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from times square. joe kernan. uc u.s. equity futures are all quiet. the dow indicated down about 80 po points, nasdaq down 62. s&p 500 off 14 or so. treasuries did touch 5% on the ten year. right now we are 4.94.

and we did mention bitcoin. you can see it goes by every once in a while. it's up 4% just under 30,000 again. >> and american express reporting earnings. the number, earnings grew 34% from last year to $3.30 a share. that easily beat the expectations of $2.94. pretty big beat. that came in on revenue of $15.4 billion. that is a slight beat on the expectations. this is the sixth quarter of record revenue. spending by u.s. consumers and card members grew by 9%. if you were looking internationally, that number was up 15%. entertainment spending was up by 13%. the travel and entertainment spending which tells you a lot about what is happening in the economy at least from the american express card holders, looking at reservations, pretty interesting there, too. they have the platform and we heard from other places like bank of america saying they saw

people starting to trade down. not happening with rezi. not with amex card holders. they're still seeing sitdown restaurants. the cfo joined me and i spoke about the numbers. the millennials and gen z, spending up 18% year over year. 70% of all in you cards are in fee-paying products. that helps the bottom line, too. he said there is a lot of doom and gloom out there but they don't see it in the numbers they're running through. will all the people waiting for the consumer to roll over, not happening with amex customers just yet. he said the things he likes a little less, if you look at the u.s. small business spend, it was up only 2%. he called that softer. still, you're talking about growth, not declines in those numbers. corporate cards, that's for large and global clients. those numbers were actually flat. corporatio corporations that are spending, that's slowing. tech companies are spending less. people are traveling far less than they were pre-pandemic.

probably about the zoom culture and people dhooing things onlin. large and global is not a large driver for the earnings, revenue or earnings for this corporate card holders. overall, the economy looks very strong from what they're seeing at amex card holders. >> a lot of gloom and doom in that chart. obviously, people are figuring something is -- >> if you look at the credit card and delinquencies, they're putting up bigger numbers. but if you're look fing for a broad macronum anybodynumber, seeing it. >> liesman is here. what the hell did we do on wednesday? >> that was the mill part. >> okay. >> the all america survey is

out. >> cue the music. >> we don't have any. >> we don't have any. >> but we did do the political part on wednesday with the views on israel. that was the important part there. the. >> now this is -- >> the economic part. let me just tell you, joe, views on the economy from the public taking another dip down in the third quarter after a brief summer blip. the cnbc all america survey finding it's not just in fflati. what about the outlook? again, really depressed. 19% think the economy gets better. 71% is the long-run average. will it get worse, 41%. pretty depressing. what's depressing americans? 32% say it's the cost of living. 18% immigration and border

security. everything else, guys, if you can zoom in many camera man on the right side, look at all those issues. every one of them did he low 10%. >> foreign policy, i know you can't read it. >> national security, crime, abortion, unemployment. >> all of them less than 10%. the some 4 or 5. we didn't have room to put all that on there, we tried to get beyond the inflation question to see why dat a is positive but te public is in a foul financial move. are you very comfortable? somewhat comfortable? uncomfortable or stressed on these things? housing cost, 31% of the public is either -- the two worst areas there. debt, not so much. household earnings, health care. you get the retirement savings, that's number two on the list. and then inflation boom. but hold on. we dug deeper here. to see what happens when you really look in the data to see

how much the public is troubled by multiple items on this list. this gets you a real financial stress metric here. take a look at this nice pie chart we have. 16% of the public says i have none of these things bugging me. 37% say one or two. look at the left side. 47% of the public has either three or four or five to seven of these things bugging them. it'snot just in flags. take a look by gender. women are much more stressed than men of the same age much those earning less than $30,000,

32%. look at post grads, 54% with less than a high school degree, much more stressed by education. bigger switch than we find by race. i think this helps you understand the takeaway here is, yeah, inflation is a huge concern. but adding it to other areas of financial stress is a better job at explaining the public's angst. >> who are the 16% that feel no stress? >> i can tell you, they're sort nst of in the groups i showed you there. can you see how big a difference things like income, education are? and then the issue, of course, of gender. i don't know how many single women are in that 18 to 40, but we know from other polls and even our poll brging before tha. si single women have a huge financial stress specially if they're single mothers. the. >> you say, yeah, i'd be worried about retirement if i can't afford the things that i'm --

every week when i go to the grocery store. i'm put things back. i mean, that causes a lot of stress. >> i think you put a finger on a really important analysis. i don't think they can put that one, seven bars up there we had before. everything cascades down from that inflation thing which is what you're saying. if costs goods is too high, retirement savings is terrible, health care is bad, and, you know, job security is the one thing that doesn't seem to be a huge issue right now. but all the other elements cascade down from the cost of goods. >> we keep forgetting that three years ago, you're buying eggs. okay. so now the rate of inflation is down now. but it went up already. >> yeah. eggs did come down technically. >> i know. but the big inflation we saw that, is already in the prices. they were here. now prices are here. and they're going up less. but they're not here anymore. >> the grocery basket is up. i'm going to mess this up. but some phenomenally big number. >> i've been shopping.

i think i scan my own items and i'm shocked. everything costs $6. >> what you're putting your finger on is this really important issue when it comes to monetary policy. we'll have bostic coming up in a second. i don't think people care about the inflation rate. what they care about is the price level. and what you can't do and what you almost never do in monetary policy is target the price level. everybody wants that old price on the grocery basket. >> that's never coming back. >> but here's what happens:if y -- if you are going to have deflation, guess what comes down with it? wages. >> we don't want that. >> you don't want that. you can't say, oh, these things go down but that doesn't. what the public is clambering about is the price level. the fed is addressing the rate of price change. >> right. right. so we're stuck with this.

it's where we are is where we're stuck. >> i have another number for you, joe. i don't think we have time for it. so -- >> what is it? >> control of congress. >> oh, yeah. >> 42% republican, 38% democrat is what people want. which is that same argument we had on wednesday. should it be a lot higher given how lousy the economy is or should it be a lot lower given what is going on with republicans in congress? >> that's pretty amazing. >> it's four-point spread which is two more points which is within the margin off error. >> this is october 11-15. some of the nonsense is going on. >> all right. thanks, steve. >> when we come back, congressman jim jordan pushing for a house speaker vote. we'll get details of at break and then hear from pimco's head

of public policy. before we head to the break, let's get a check on the markets. right now, dow futures off by 63. the nasdaq down by 38. "squawk box" will be right back.

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vowing to stay in the speaker race. he is expected to hold a press conference this morning. emily? >> joe, yes. jim jordan is expected to speak in just an hour really. he's not expected to drop out though. this is just a speech he's going to have before the house and then they are expected to vote at 10:00 a.m. this will be the third vote on speaker with jordan as the nominee. it's clear he doesn't have the votes to win. and, yet, jordan is choosing to fight it out as the republican's nominee. the last vote, the second one, he lost the support of 22 republicans. and he's expected to lose even more support on this third go around. and, yet, jordan met with a number of holdouts last night. he tried to chat with them, negotiate with them. lawmakers who left the room told me that it's just not enough to get them onboard. >> a lot have concerns about the overall process and how things played out andsomeone is concerned with jordan's very

conservative credentials holding the gavel for the speakership. but, on the other hand, there are lots of republicans like congressman byron donalds who told me yesterday that jordan should have more time to try to become speaker. >> he's our nominee. i think this will go as long as he chooses he wants it to go. or, you know, until members who are opposing him make a decision. i would recommend that they do. that is to, you know, reverse their position and be supportive of jim. so we can get back to work. >> jordan does not appear ready to throw-in the towel at this point. one of the allies, warren davidson tweeted last night that lawmakers should expect votes throughout the weekend. becky? >> emily, thank you very much. the biden administration is drafting a foreign aid package that includes assistance for israel as well as other top security priorities. for more on that and the speaker voting, we go to head of pimco.

what is happening in the house? any legislation that is draft wod -drafted would have go through the house. you said if jim jordan didn't get 200 votes, the speakership is over. now what? >> he didn't get 200. he just got 200 on the first round. he got fewer than that on the second round. he probably will get even less than that on the third round, becky. it seems like he really is going to take this to a place of exhaustion, just trying to, i guess, show that he really can't get the speakership. maybe just show that to himself. it doesn't seem like he is likely to get the number of votes just given the big deficit. he needs to get 217. again, he got 199 the last vote. in terms of the way forward, becky, you know, we could see other names coming from the floor. other folks being nominated for speaker which would then start the series of roll call votes

again. i think that real issue here it is that it is unlikely that any one republican can get 217 republican votes. the most likely outcome i think in our view seems to be some sort of agreement with the democrats to get basically expand the authorities that speaker pro tem already has. he is a temporary speaker. he doesn't have the authorities now. that has to be subject to a vote if he were elected. speaker pro tem, that would expand the authorities. that seems at this point the most likely outcome. there are more twists and turns in addition to a weekend-long series of votes for speaker. >> mchenry said that he doesn't want it unless he is elected to that position. he doesn't want to take additional duties on. at this point, i think you think that this is all just noise s there a point where this becomes a much bigger problem? >> this is. this is a side show for markets.

i don't think markets are really digesting this. maybe there is a little bit of weakness in treasury bonds because of this. there is a general dysfunction and lack of confidence in our institutions. i don't think the markets are paying attention to this. pt the there say lot going on. it is mostly noise. it could turn into signal the closer we get to november 17 ng. t -- november 17th. that is the deadline. congress has to pass a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown. congress kicked the can down the road on september 30th. that will be the forcing mechanism. if we get closer to that date without a speaker, then i think the markets could get jittery. one thing i will mention is that while we have 28 days until that day, they only have nine legislative days. there are only nine day that's the house is actually supposed to be in session. now, of course, they could bring folks back and not let them go on recess. but it is, i think, important that while it seems like it's a month away and congressional

time, it's actually much sooner than that. they have much more limited time than you think looking at the calendar. >> libby, i ran some math here. i've been doing math. if if mccarthy was at 96% missing eight, he calls them the crazy eight, scalise didn't get a 96 even on a curve. and jordan is nowhere near 96%. so jordan's got to get -- he's got to convert over 20. mck mccarthy has to convert four of the crazy eight. when i watch what is happening, mccarthy is front and center talking about it. still seems like he is leading the caucus. what are the chances that they get four of the guys when they actually look at the alternative which is dealing with democrats and hakeem jeffries and begging for some support from over there.

i'd rather have the devil, you know, let's just do it over again and bring him back and do sort of a doover? >> yeah. joe, it's an excellent point. we refer to him as potential for a comeback. the come back kid, if you will. i think he's by his own admission, he thinks that's unlikely at this point. there is just sort of too much water under the proverbial bridge. it could be a possibility. you point out a really good dynamic here many republicans, most republicans, don't want to have to concede anything to democrats in order to elect their own speaker. democrats are very clear they will exact a price for their votes. that price may seem like a relatively low bar if you're paying attention to it. but still, it is a price. you think your point is well taken. however, it feels like that eight or even four of those half of those eight are really

intractable. they continue to say that they do not want kevin mccarthy. there is too much bad blood. that still seems unlikely. you know, the long they are goes on, you know, i think the more scenarios we should entertain. >> are there things taking place behind the scenes to try and make sure that if there is a speaker of the house and they can bring legislation that legislation would be stuff they could pass whether it comes to keeping the government open or getting some of that aid that the president is requesting for israel, for ukraine and beyond? >> the irony here is that, of course, you know, the speaker mccarthy was part ousted because of the fiscal health of the u.s. understandable concerns. the irony, however, is that without a speaker in the house, the house republicans really lose a lot of leverage in this aid dynamic. there is going to be an aid

package that the white house is writing. $100 billion is the number thrown out there. the senate will probably take that up in some sort of form. they may pair that back in terms of the overall cost. it will be large. it will be too large for a house republicans, however, they do real yind of lose their leverage here without a speaker of the house. no legislation can pass. nothing can be brought up. no committee work can be done. no investigations can be done. so the work of the house just is paralyzed. as a result, in this sort of aid package that the senate can pass it quickly, that's a big if, then they can certainly jam the house. in some ways, the great irony here is the folks have sort of thrown mccarthy out because of concerns around the fiscal health. because they're without a speaker, they could be more vulnerable in terms of being jammed by the senate with this really pretty big aid package with a big pricetag.

it's never really about that. >> for sure, yes. >> all right. thanks, libby. coming up, we have stocks to watch ahead of the opening bell on wall street. and then, powell highlight something progress in the inflation fight yesterday. we're going to speak to atlanta fed president rafael bostic. "squawk box" coming right back. ( ♪ ♪ ) who do you think taps out first? i think the duck goes the distance! alright, you about ready to get out? what's this? a hospital bill?! for a thousand bucks?! gaaaap! did this goat just say 'gap'? he's talking about expenses health insurance doesn't cover. but with aflac, you can get money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? -aflac! -ahhhh! okay! oh! duck - 1, goat - 0.

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here we have all the time in the world, but no time to waste. the big earnings story of

the morning belongs to american express. the travel card, booking and financial services company up fractionally. just one quarter of 1% premarket. it reported better profited helped along by the relatively wealthier base. they do not see a tradedown in spending like in dining out. it is somewhat more cautious with a boost to how much money it sets aside for possible future credit losses. amex shares up .25%. on the analyst front, shares of railroad operator union pacific on the move. up fractionally right now. very thin premarket trading. they could get help after deutsche bank analyst upgraded that stock from a buy to hold. he raised the target price to $235 from $223. they cited better operating efficiencies under the new ceo and better macro trends as well. the shares up .75%.

we cap things off with cryptocurrency. bitcoin is just trading right around 4.5%, $29,985. just shy of that $30,000 mark, the higher end of the nearer term trade range. some of that is building optimism that u.s. securities regulators are closer to granting approval for ba bitcoi traded fund. they're confident etf applications will be granted. he was formerly a u.s. magistrate judge in california. he might have a little insight there. the gray scale bitcoin fund is one of those funds looking to convert into an etf. we'll keep an eye on. that by the way, former sec chairman jay clayton will be here live on "squawk box" in the next half hour to shed his insight into what this all

means, especially for crypto exchange operators. back to you. >> okay. thank you very much. up next, our exclusive interview with atlanta fed president rafael btiosc. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ )

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>> steve liesman is back at the table. he brought a special guest. steve? >> yes, rafael bostic joins us now on a fortuitous day. thank you for being here. >> good to see you. >> i would almost never start an interview with a fed official like. this but because yesterday was so confusing, i need to ask you to help us put what the chairman said into context. if you look at the ten-year, the yield was up. it was down. it was side ways and ultimately it is lower.

the two-year he went up and dow and then side ways. how did you put in context -- i know you listened to the chairman probably more closely than i do. >> i listen to him every day. look, these are complicated times. there are lots of things going in all directions. we have inflation's come down a lot. i think the momentum is going to continue to be that way. you see the resilience in the broader economy which makes it difficult. it's a complicated thing. in talking about the economy, it's always a challenge. i focus on looking ahead and where are people feeling and thinking the economy is going to go. what i learned in the six years i've been in this job is that when you talk to real people and they tell you real things, it's real.

i really try to lean into that and take that onboard. >> and what are they telling you now? how different is that from the strong data we've had in retail sales? your atlanta fed gdp is, you know, practically a skyscraper out there. >> it is north of 5. i understand that. look, when i talk to businesses, they all tell me the slowdown is coming. i have really taken that onboard and thinking about what restrictiveness looks like. and how it is likely to play out over the next six months. >> before i open it up to my esteemed colleagues, i have to ask you this. you're the only fed official from what i can see who has used the face sufficiently restrictive. chair powell yesterday twice got up to there and said, no.

twice said we're still looking for that number. are you going to be sat at the table at the other end when you get to the next meeting? are you feeling alone out on a limb? >> you have to ask everyone else. my seat is set at the table where it is. i will will say this. i was with a number of my other colleagues and what they have said is similar to what i'm hearing which is the businesses are feeling and seeing the slowdown. they're anticipating things will contract and constrict from here. and they say a bunch of our policy tightness still hasn't gone through the old economy. and so i think the tra jekt riff t -- trajectory of the economy is going to go like my outlook. we're not going stto see recessn and inflation will get to 2%. >> i heard what chairman powell

said yesterday. i think, okay, it sounds like he's not really eager to raise rates. it sounds like this is probably bought some time for the committee to decide what they want to do next. is that the sense you get? he doesn't want to let markets know that maybe they're done. because that would do some pretty lousy things anyway if the market takes that and runs to the bank with it. we're going to wait and see what happens. >> we're always that way. we always want to see what happens. i think the risk is the market gets ahead of itself and starts to anticipate that we have had an outcome before we actually had the outcome. as i talk about it, i really do try to keep people focused on, look, inflation is still at 3.7%. our target is 2%. they're not the same. we have to get a lot closer to the 2% before we're going to consider -- before i would consider any kind of relaxation of our posture.

inflation is job one. we have to get that under control. and there is a risk that if we start to hint, oh, we think we're already there -- >> we think rates are coming down. >> exactly. that is not in my head today. i don't think that we're going to be cutting rates before the middle of next year. >> it will be bad if we had high inflation and definitely weaker economic activity. that's the worst. >> high inflation is worse. you just showed the survey in the previous segment. inflation bothers people. that's what we've heard consistently throughout this period. even before the pandemic. we started having conferences. we asked, inflation or jobs? is everyone said inflation is much worse. we have got to get that under control. >> what you're doing isn't what gets it under control. you end up -- inflation stays high. and the economy does slow. and it's not the antidote for inflation in the first place. i don't know. it's tough.

>> look at the risk. we're going to do all we need to and can get to inflation under control. i'm confident that that's where we're going to go. i talk to many business leaders. they're telling me their pricing power is much weaker than it used to be. they're even trying to raise prices from here because there is a risk they're going to lose customers. >> i'm convinced you can slow the economy with mortgage rates where they are and there is a lot of reasons to think that you will be successful in slowing growth and the economy. i don't know if that necessarily translates to 2% inflation though. i mean, that's the bad thing. >> i think it will. we'll have to see. time will tell. >> by the way, the beige book was much more down beat or stable or neutral thattive in t -- neutral. do you think the neutral rate is ultimately higher? is the long-run rate for the fed funds, is it higher rate than it

had been in the past? >> i don't know. it very possibly could be. this is something we're going to talk about a lot over the next five years or so as we start to rethink all of our frame works. we're starting to do our framework review on a much more regular basis. and that time is coming up. if you think about the pandemic alone, how people are working and retired changed and how people want to live their lives has changed. i talked to a number of families where they had two earner families. and then they started doing the math. they said one of these earnings is just to cover commuting costs. maybe we want to just keep one of you home. >> and daycare too. >> exactly right. there are a lot of those structural things happening. those things we have to evaluate. >> i'm interested in how you're operating though listening to that idea. when do you see the fed might

reduce rates? >> i would say late 2024. >> the best outlook, i understand it's a forecast. in that same forecast, i'm guessing inflation comes down. that means you're forecasting a higher real rate at least for the next year than other wuz would sort of tells me you're operating under a, maybe that neutral rate is higher. >> today there is a lot of momentum in the economy. inflation is going to come down but not fall off a cliff. it will be a slow, kind of steady is not the right word. but it will be sort of a progression that is going to take time. we're going to have to be cautious. we're going to have to be patient. but we have to be resolute. and to me, i really try very hard to not let any individual

data point try to drive or cause me to adjust too rapidly. i think what we're going to see is the data is going to bounce around. it's a longer-term trend that is something i need to focus on. look, if inflation expectations take off over the long term, that's going to be a problem we're going to have to respond to that. if inflation reverses itself or starts to rise, we'll have to address that. so i'm not locked into anything. i think the long term trend is actually moving in a very positive way. >> you know, steve made the point we talked about how you are probably closer to this than any other fomc member in terms of saying, okay, maybe we're done. that's how we see it. i don't know if you see it the same way. do your colleagues feel similarly? you're not a voting member this time around. are the sentiments things you feel like your colleagues are on the same board with or is that an uphill battle to convince them of the same?

>> i don't think of it as a battle. i think part of this is they have different information sense. what our conversations are really about is how we're all collectively seeing that. what i would say is that the dat is coming in over the last several months consistent with what i expected. we'll continue to see that process. i think you heard this from our colleagues as they've been going around. much more open to just saying, look, things are moving in the way that is consistent with getting to our target. >> how high does it get to go where people feel like they're going to stay if they make 5%.

i want a lot more. could we go to 5.5% or 6% without raising? >> that's a good question. i don't think about that very much. >> i do. that could ruin everything. i talk to business leaders and families. i want to know how ththe rates infecting their decisions to day. what we heard so far is that, you know, many businesses are still flush with cash. the real world effect is muted to what it would be otherwise. that's the way i'm thinking about this to try to understand what the impact is likely to be on the things that are in our per view. >> you're a voting member next january. >> how worried are you about the corporate refinance coming down? right now people have been immune to it. companies have been. but they're going to have to at some point refinance that debt.

>> yeah. we talk about that a lot in our building. it is something that we're definitely keeping an eye on. it is true that many of the corporations that took out debt, they refinanced 2020 and 2021. that is coming due now over the next several years. i said earlier, there is still some slowdown coming because of our policies. this is one of the dimensions. >> and building, you said you're in, you have to refinance too. i think they own it, joe. >> that's right. you're lucky. good thing is that the bond market can do some of the work for the fed. but if you don't control it, you're not controlling it. maybe way too much work for you. >> so, i don't think we control

the bond market. there are other factors that are dynamic. >> are the vigilantes back? they're looking around. they're not buying. they're not buying what we're selling right now. >> so i don't know about the vigilantes. i will will say this -- >> does the government have to get us act together if the deficit is unsustainable? >> the deficit will become more of an issue as debt service increases and that's coming. i expect that the congress will, and the president, will start having conversations on this pretty aggressively. >> i think you should give the vote to somebody else. say i don't want to be responsible for this. i want to watch. can you do that? >> no. >> thank you for joining us, president bostic. steve, thank you. >> coming up, spot bitcoin etf excitement is around. u n mo fl yocaalsteeit. it is building, it says here. and

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the israel-hamas war dominating the conversations on college campuses and in corporate america. joining us is jay clayton. former s.e.c. chairman and cnbc contributor. jay is a long-time donor at the wharton school of business. elec he lectured at other campuses

across the country. jay, it is hard to watch and confusing and i need it scland to explained to me a lot. if you separate hamas and palestinians, you can somehow find a reason to view it almost as apartheid and it is almost a human rights stance that these students and all of their young idealism and they don't connect it with a terrorist organization. is it possible to separate the two? >> look, you took a lot of words and we have a sysim simple issu. advocates for genocide and terror. they have no place on college campuses. >> how is it happening? why are they so confused? >> why do we have confusion on college campuses? we haven't stood up to those things over time. this is just the latest

manifestation of the weakening of moral character on college campuses. >> around the world. every time we hear it, it is because of white supremacist in this country and donald trump and charlottesville. it can't be that. >> it is in capitals around the world. you are exactly right. our college campuses, especially in the elite universities, are the place for subjective truth. it is one of the greatest advance of advantages we have in the country where you have the higher learning wihere moral s e searched. because of that, the search for objective truth is weakened. i see too many professors start

with conclusion and looking for data to support it. >> that happens a lot. >> you know, we look at the economy. i actually thought president bostic did a fantastic and objective job. what is the data telling sme. we have a lot of what is good and bad and work back from there. >> jay, i have also watched the left recently be the biggest proponent against free speech with twitter and elon musk and oh, my gosh, we should be able to control what people say. the first amendment doesn't. suddenly they are back on the other side. students should be able to say. >> that makes this issue even worse. you had censorship around things like the environment and around all sorts of things on college campuses.

then this is something anyone who sees terrorism knows this is what it is. there is no but. there is no other side. >> what happens? we watched what happens at the university of penn and has there been a statement that made you feel okay that they have come down on the right side or do they have a way to go? jeremy siegel said this is a university at wharton, they threw somebody out for calling somebody else a water buffalo and eventually brought them in. what do you want? >> i agree with jeremy that we need consistency. also, you need leadership. we had a mistake here. i don't think there's any one involved with the university. >> the mistake is allowing the speakers to come associated with

terrorism and anti-semitic? >> yes. you make mistakes at home and at universities. once you became aware of the mistake, you admit it and deal with it. there were wishy-washy words. anti-semitic rechetoric has no place. the rhetoric we see today is different from three weeks ago. it is too bad we had the events in the middle east for that to move closer to what we all know is, you know, the moral basis that we live by which is there is no place for terrorism. >> you are like a voice in the wilderness. i see some of the demonstrations and take the one that one of our congress members who was at the demonstration. carried away screaming about the

hospital and even though by all indications, i think, we can probably trust our own intelligence services and what objective people have said about it. they are so insisting to be able to say and they're loud and committed. >> all the more reason you have to stand up. our boards of trustees at universities are made up of people who are extremely successful and resourced and know how to deal with things like this in the corporate world. this is where we need leadership from them. to put it all on the president of the university is a little bit much. these boards of trustees are there to set the direction of the universities. our greatest competitive advantage as a country is tech. aerospace, healthcare and educ education. higher education drives the economy forward like nobody's business >> you are realizing this is the first time this is a problem

universities are teaching the children? it has been around for the last five or ten years? >> i taught for ten years. i have seen the perspective change. i've seen people bristle at bringing up tough subjects. >> we should be unanimous and we're not. >> 100%. coming up in the next hour, michael froman on the president's plan to send billions to israel and ukraine. "squawk box" will be right back. . now they're focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ )

good morning. futures are lower in the pre-market. all of the major averages on pace for weekly losses. the ten-year yield off the yesterday highs, but still close to 5% level. dow's american express out with earnings. the breakdown of the numbers from the company's cfo straight ahead. the company makes a new plea for aid to israel and ukraine, but the u.s. house still unable to find a new speaker he. we'll take you live to washington for the latest on the congressional dysfunction as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning.

welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew is off today. it is friday. you will see dow futures are down, but off the worst levels of the morning. off 58. s&p off 8 points. nasdaq off 33. treasury yields with the ten-year yield close below 5%. it is 4.958%. earlier, we saw bitcoin rise above $30,000 for the first time since august. it is below that up 4% at $29,913. third quarter earnings out for american express. profit beating expectations. revenue almost in line, but an above expectations. this was the sixth quarter of record revenue.

internationally, that was a 15% gain. if you look at the travel and entertainment, up 13%. that stock was up more early this morning. right now, it is up 13 cents. the cfo talked about what he sees in the economy and he says they are looking for doom and gloom, but they have not seen any in the numbers they are watching at this point. >> i don't know what that means exactly. they realize there is a potential for an issue. >> everywhere you hear is doom and gloom. they watch the numbers closely. they have not seen the pullback yesterday. he says american express has a higher quality card member. these are people who are the last ones to get hit. they have not seen traded down n reservations. they see more people doing fast casual dining. they are looking for it.

they have not seen any signs. >> it can happen quickly. some of the other top business stories. eli lilly is planning to test the diabetes judrug in kids who have obesiobesity. novo nordisk is testing an older version of its drugs in kids as young as 6 and shares of those companies are mixed this morning. eli lilly is up. elon musk says his social media company x, or twitter, will launch two tiers of sub descrs subscrippss for users. a full slate of ads and another o will not have ads. it will test a $1 a year fee for users to post as a way to fight

spam or bot activity. the department of energy wants to buy 6 million barrels of oil for the strategic reserve. it is hoping to get a price of $79 or less. it is working to refill the spr after president biden ordered his or toric release to try to high gas prices. buy low, sell high. i'm not sure that's what we're doing here. there was a time. >> briefly. we could have filled it at lower rates. >> it does get scary. no one was expecting the middle east to totally be a different place than what we saw or thought it was six months ago sdplcago. >> if you looked at oil prices three weeks ago, energy has come down 10% in ten days. wti. there was a concern there wasn't much demand around the globe

with the potential recession. >> before october 7th? >> yeah. it turned quickly. it was leading up to that. we had seen wti down significantly. >> if there was a real situation, how much -- we don't have that much? the emergency was designed for it? >> it is designed for more energy today. >> it is not designed to stem an inconvenient price rise for an administration. within 90 minutes of opening bell, let's get to mike santoli. >> equity futures are backing off a little bit. still an unsteady market, but trying to refocus on fundamentals away from the reactive moves in the bond market. so far, really trapped in the range. this is the s&p. the s&p itself between 4,200 and 4,400 has been where we are ping

ponging for a month. you see it is trapped between 50-day average. 4,200 was the recent low for this pullback. we know mid-october is when you often have a lot of scary gut checks and a bottom in the market. we will see if we have the makings of that. guys, you were talking about the oil supply and demand. look at sector compared to the transports. you saw for the period both going up in sync. that was good demand and stronger economy and china is waking up. those why in tune. now they are moving a little bit contrary as you see there. oil up and transports down. that relationship shows you that this last bump higher in crude prices is probably not entirely driven as you have been saying.

it seems more supply concerns. you are losing some of that back drop of cyclical leadership from the transports at this point. volatility index. yesterday closed above 20. 20 has actually not been a level we finished above for months. this is a two-year chart. you see since the silicon valley bank failures, we capped at 20. that is a mark to actually look at lows in the equity index. you need it to go up and then start to go down quickly and make a spike on the chart before the all clear. last year, 20 was more like the low. i will point out last friday where there was a bid in volatility. you had a lot of people buying protection ahead of the weekend with the unpredictable geopolitical situation. i'm watching that today to see if the vix is building in the distress in the stock market or yields. that would tell you dynamic is

in play. typically you have volatility drain out on a friday. >> it is weird. we have been talking about how long the vix was stuck under 20. it doesn't seem like it is really stock market or bond market related. it seems like it may be geopolitical. now we're hearing is it a go for ground forces to move in to gaza? is that really what is it, mike? iran sabrerattling? >> some of that is bleeding over into equities. you somehave the unknown factor. it seems like there are many things we don't know how they will turn out. whether it is in d.c. or middle east or everywhere. in theory, it could get that. the index itself, the s&p, has been very calm at least choppy within a range.

it is not driving up people to expect huge moves. >> okay. all right. thanks, mike. you never know until we know. thanks, mike. >> joining us more for on the markets and impact on rising bond yields is john mowry at nsj investment group. we have been hyper focused on the ten-year yield lately as it touched above 5% for the first time yesterday. you think we are paying attention to the wrong thing t. is not the ten-year yield, but the two-year? >> good to see you, becky. everyone is focused on the ten-year, not to say we are focused on that, but the two-year bond led the fed on the way up. it was ahead of the fed in pointing to higher rates. if you go back to 2000 which is more applicable to look at with the strong dollar and higher interest rates and nasdaq was up

a lot compared to other indexes. when you look at that period, the two-year bond started to come under a little bit of pressure before the hfed cut. that trailed off in the middle of 2000. what is fascinating about that, the s&p was down at the end of 2000. what was up was small cap value and midcap value and banks and real estate and utilities. i think the two-year bond is something investors are not paying enough attention to as that moves lower. it should move lower he. we expect to see relief in the areas. >> you also expect to see relief from the fed cutting rates. is that an indicator of that? >> i think the fed is doing the best with the information we have. there are a lot of knowns and unknown s unknowns. kwquantitative tightening.

that is something we cannot bottle because we only had one observation. we have a lot of tightening in the system. you know, what i would say is if you go back to the end of the 2000 period that is an applicable, the fed raised three times. in 2001, in january, they cut twice by 100 basis points. they reversed what they did in 2000 just in one month. things can change very quickly. i think even though the fed has every intension of keeping rates higher for longer, they may be faced with a different set of events. you were talking about this this morning. i'm healthy right now and i may get a cold and have to go to the doctor. things can change. we have seeing significant dislocations, beckbecky, in man areas. small cap is trading to the

smallest level of the s&p since covid and 2000. nobody wants to step into these because of the reasons i mentioned. the dislocations are material. if the macro environment changes, there will be an enormous amount of money flowing in these areaareas. >> small business, if you look at the russell 2000, has higher rates and that impacting the smaller businesses first. if you have things coming down and we talk about recession, that could hurt small businesses dramatically, too. >> it most certainly could. i will go back to the other periods with the discounted recession priced in. again, in 2000, we entered in the recession in '01, but what about the areas that were attractively priced? i think valuations are what investors should focus on if recession is possible. it is possible we get the recession because of the yield curve inverted.

we have seen it unwinding. it has been unwinding from 100 basis points of inversion to 20 basis points. the markets are down. 2000 value is down. the midcap anvalue is down as well. we have seen weakness in those areas as it is unwinding. going back to the areas with financials and materials. these areas have been significantly punished. banks are down 30% and 40% relative to the s&p 500. material stocks like bubble wrap. these companies are down 30% to 40%. >> you put regional banks in that basket? >> i do. i do. i think you have to be choosey. there are some that are better positioned than others. commerz bank shares. they held flat. there is no uptick in npl.

some erosion of deposits is an issue with the higher interest rates. i would argue that powell said the fed was working with the regional banks. with the treasury in place, i would be surprised to see material bank failures going forward at this point given with what happened with silicon valley and first republic. everybody says we will have a hard landing. we had four regional failures. that is not easy for many. >> john, thank you for your time today. have a great weekend. >> thank you. coming up, take aways from president biden's address last night on israel and ukraine. with the president of the council on foreign relations michael froman. we are finished with big banks and we move to big tech.

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israeli military says it struck more than 100 targets in gaza linked to hamas in the latest salvo and the group. israel is ready for a ground invasion two weeks after hamas attacked it. prepare to see gaza from the inside. last night, in the second oval office address in his presidency, president biden spoke out. >> history has taught us when terrorists don't pay a price for their terror and dictators don't pay the price for aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction. they keep going and the cost and threats to america and the world keep rising. >> joining us right now on the current state of the israel-hamas war and what it means for the united states is michael froman.

the president on the council of foreign relations. he received as the trade adviser during president obama's second term. how was president biden's message received? >> it was an important speech. one was making the argument for aid to ukraine and israel in terms of investment. it is more important to spend treasury now in the u.s. than american blood later and making the case if we don't help ukraine and israel defend themselves, we will find more chaos and spread of violence and drawn into more conflicts. that was an important point. the second point was 9/11 and the lessons we learned and sending a message to israel to think through what its reaction will be to the hamas terrorist attack and think through what the second and third stages are that they may have to face

there. then, the third usuaissue, beck was the rise of anti-semitic issues and a callout to people hurting on all sides to think through their families and communities and employees and try to come together. >> ambassador froman, before the attacks on israel, you had seen exhaustion in terms of the united states' ability to continue funding the situation in ukraine. it was different from what we had seen over a year ago. how has the attack on israel changed or modified any of that or has it? is this something that the congress will support? is this something they're constituents will support? >> on the one hand, of course, it tends to draw attention away from ukraine and you hear people say we can't afford to do both.

let's focus on israel where our focus is more clear. i think that's why president biden's speech was so important because he was making the case of the two of them together representing really important principles about american democracy and democracy in the world and defending against dictators and terrorists and we need to stand with them. united states as a nation to demonstrate to the rest of the world that we are willing to support these folks fighting these battles. >> what happens next in terms of escalation as you see it? iran has been pretty a antagonistic in this sense and right after that rocket from the failed palestinian rocket landed on the hospital in gaza and tweeted out saying time is up. what did they mean by that? how should we interpret it? >> iran has been incredibly success thful this stirring up

chaos through proxies. i don't think iran wants to see the conflict come to iranian territory itself, but they have options for stirring trouble all around israel. yesterday, we saw some missiles fired from iranian supported forces in yemen and intercepted by a u.s. ship. they have a great capacity to stir up trouble. i think part of the reason that the u.s. has sent military forces to the region on the carrier groups is to send a message to iran if it seeks to expand this conflict that there could be repercussions. >> there are talks supposed to be taken place this weekend with saudi arabia and jordan and other arab nations. we should watch this closely. on the one hand, they have been outspoken with the rhetoric and they want to make sure there is not an expanding conflict in the region as well. what should we be watching from

the talks? >> i think first and immediately, the issue of getting humanitarian aid in gaza through the rafah crossing into ye egypt. there are issues worked out to make sure the humanitarian aid can get into where it is needed, but nothing there to help support hamas and its broader efforts in gaza. that needs to be resolved quickly so we can begin to get that much-needed aid. i think longer term, one of the issues that the region faces is that for several years now, there is a view that perhaps israel and its neighbors can stabilize the relationships and normalize the relationships and put the palestinian issue on the back burner. i think with this conflict and attack by hamas demonstrated this issue not going away and when the dust settles -- it is hard to imagine any israeli government right now making any

meaning thefful compromise on palestinian issues, but lenonge term, there is a way to get back to the table to get through the underlining solutions. >> president biden is showing support for israel, but behind the scenes, it is to urge restraint if we are looking for the potential for a ground warw war then how does that change the situation? >> trisks are high. urban warfare is difficult and you have hundreds of miles of tunnels that hamas has dug. we don't know what the troops are doing under the cities in the tunnels. it could be difficult. one lesson he is alluding to, president biden, referring to 9/11 and things we learned afterwards. our goal in iraq is to clear and hold and rebuild. it took nine months to clear

mosul. we should not forget the challenges in the security threat coming from gaza. we now hear israel wants a buffer zone to shrink gaza and create the space with the israeli border and gazans live. that will require a lot of work on the ground there. i think one reason we have seen israel pause after it looked like they were going in a week or so ago is to further plan and prepare for what they might face and think through ultimately when this is all over and who will rule gaza. if hamas destroys the force there, is it the palestinian authority or is it israeli occupation? is egypt going to play a role? is it going to be the u.n.? none of these is a great option. thinking through who will assure gaza does not remain a security threat to israel. >> ambassador froman, thank you. >> thank you for having me.

when we come back, we will take you live to washington for the latest on the gop efforts to find a house speaker that republican lawmakers can accept. by the way, check out the ten-year yield. very close to 5% right now at 4.9818%. yesterday was 5.02%. it touched above 5% for the first time since 2007. we will continue to monitor it. "squawk box" will be right back.

well come back. still no speaker in the u.s. house of relationship urepresentatives. we heard from jim jordan moments ago. we have emily wilkins in d.c. >> reporter: becky, jordan's message is he is still fighting for the speakership as he still does not have the votes to win. he laid out the case to reporters and really what is his first pressor since getting the republican nomination. listen to the message. it was the quickest way to get back to work which is to elect him. >> the fastest way to get to work for the american people is to elect the speaker so the house can be open and we can get things done. >> reporter: remember the house has a couple of big deadlines coming up. the $100 billion ask from the white house for israel and

ukraine and other priorities. remember, government funding only goes through november 17th. congress will have to figure out how they will keep the government funded past that point. they do not have enough time to pass the full amount of government funding. jordan laid that out as well talking a little bit about the key priorities and what they need to be. >> we got important work to do. we need to help israel. we need to get the appropriations process moving so the key elements of the government are funded. we need to get back to the committee work and oversight work that is darn important. in short, we need to get to work for the american people. we need to do what we said we would do and would do. we can't do that if the house isn't open. we can't open the house the until we get a speaker.

>> reporter: now lawmakers are expected to vote at 10:00 a.m. that is the third speaker vote now. remember, last time jordan did not get support from 22 republicans. he can only afford to lose four. we heard from lawmakers who say they expect jordan to lose more support in the next round. jordan seems to be implying he is willing to go more than three rounds. he noted it took mccarthy 15 rounds for him to be elected. there is suggestions that the house could be working through the weekend. becky. >> emily, thank you very much. emily wilkins. coming up, are higher bond yields letting the fed off the hook when it comes to another potential interest rate hike? we'll talk about that and the latest economic message. stay tuned. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

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investors trying to digest new messages from the federal reserve leaders. this was chairman jay powell yesterday at the event hosted by the economic club of new york. >> we have models for everything. we have formulas for everything.

as a practitioner, we have to focus on what the economy is telling us. even taking lags into account. what is it telling us? does it feel policy is too tight right now? i would have to say no. >> then, atlanta fed president raphael bostic joined us on "squawk box" in the last hour. >> this is a feeling and they are seeing the slowdown. they are anticipating things will contract and constrict from here. and they say with the tightness which still hasn't gone through the whole economy. i think the trajectory of the economy is likely to go in a way that is likely consistent with my outlook. we are not going to see recession. that is not in my outlook. we will see a slowdown and inflation will get down to its 2%. >> joining us now to talk about where the fed goes from here and in light of the rising bond yields, joe levornih and betsy

stevenson at the university of michigan and former economist at the u.s. labor department. betsy, i'll start with you and then i'vell get to joe. you agree with chairman powell that there are not necessarily at this point real signs of weakness in the u.s. economy? >> you know, i feel like we're in the delicate balance of words here. the u.s. economy is clearly e extremely resilient. that is the word powell used. i would agree with that 100%. you said no signs of weakness. i would disagree with that. i think there are signs of things slowing or at least normalizing and actually powell acknowledged that as well. you know, the quit rate has come down. the outsize wage gains people

were getting from changing jobs has come back down so you actually always get a bigger wage increase when you change employers than when you stay with the same employer on average. now what we're seeing is the difference between those two is back in pre-pandemic normal territory. that normalization is signs of slowing, but i think what he is worried about is it's stronger growth than you would expect at a time where you are trying to bring inflation down. i think on the other hand, we are seeing inflation continuing to come down and it really comes down to the fact that the models are dealing with really uncharted territory. women behave differently in relation to return to work coming out of recession. i think that allowed the supply to expand a lot faster than a lot of people expected. that's why we have been able to bring inflation from 9% to 3%

while keeping unemployment below he 4%. that is not in the models because we have never done that before. >> joe, he said even taking lags into account that there may be more tightening from what they have already done. they haven't done anything in a couple of months or whatever it's been. the long end has really been going up. >> yeah. >> you got the possible lag effect and you have the market tightening itself. he still says we're in the restrictive zone. you think we have been in restrictive zone for months arrest. >> the yield curve is inverted. manufacturing, if you look at the ism, it has been below 50 for 11 straight months. residential. housing is in recession. there are signs of weakness. those are the two sectors that tell you where the broader economy is going. he is giving us double speak

because he is saying it may not be too tight, but restriction is in the pipeline. how resilient do you think today's economy now is relative to '06 or after the financial crisis? where is the underlining productivity? i don't see this economy as dynamic. if it was, it would not be near recession readings. gdp is supposed to be 5%. not unusual to get the pops before the economy rolls over. this doesn't feel like it is a 5% economy by any means. >> betsy, what is happening in the long end? although the fed hasn't been -- i guess there were jobs with higher for longer. he said it in a more convincing way a couple of times. are we unmoored? do we need to start worrying that people need to get paid to go ten years around the world?

that's a long time. i don't know if i would do that for 5%. >> look, first, i want to say one real place of disagreement is the word dynamic. i think the u.s. economy is more dynamic than it has been in a really long time. we still see new business starts and new business formation much higher than prior to the pandemic. that's sort of weird when you are talking about how much people are being asked to be paid and loan people money for ten years. it is not slowing down new business formation yet. that is one of the reasons why you hear raphael bostic say we don't think we're done with seeing the full effect of where bond yields are and interest rates are at and having percolated through the economy. part of that is because people started formulating that new business plan maybe a year or

two ago and it is finally just ge getting started. i do think you will continue to see some slowdowns. as i think people have been very engaged in the labor market in a way where the productivity gains we have not seen in the data yet that are still to come. when you see people changing jobs and changing into a better fit for them means we see productivity gains in a little bit once they ahad time to sette in the new jobs to be more productive. >> i don't think so? >> betsey is confusing dynamism with resilience. you look at the backbone of industry and hiring. sentiment is horrible. capital spending plans are horrible. productivity hasn't been strong. given the regulatory state, joe, it is hard to think that we will

have a dynamic economy. it doesn't feel like the late '90s. it will take a while for the economy to turnover given the government stimulus. when i look at housing and manufacturing teetering, those are good signs the economy will be weak. >> will the fed be success thtsuccessful at getting to 2%? >> the fed has never been able to engineer a soft landing when inflation has been above target. it has never happened. in '95 in february of that year, they started easing. inflation was stable. it is possible, joe, but it has never happened. i don't think this is happening this time. >> betsey, you have 10 or 15 seconds. >> there's a huge gap with what people are saying and doing. consumers say they are not confident. they are spending like crazy. businesses are forming new

businesses like crazy. that gap between what people say and do is what will determine which one is telling us the truth. >> it is the sentiment numbers that are leading indicators. consumer confidence tells us where we are, not where we're going. >> joe and betsey, thank you. we can take this on the road. we'll try to do it again at some point. michigan's good this year, i think. neither here nor there. she's at university of michigan. the big house. >> yes. >> rutgers isn't awful. >> we win one more game and we're going to a bowl. >> that's something. like the cereal bowl? >> a real bowl. that's what flutie said when i was in college. the only bowl they're going to is that. jerk. when we come back, four mega caps set to report next week.

after the break, we will talk expectations with mark mahaney. "squawk box" will be right back. powering sustainable growth in a changing world. powering financial solutions that transform industries. powering innovation

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available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. next week is shaping up to be the busiest of earnings season. goodie. we get results from alphabet, amazon, meta and microsoft. our next guest covers the first three of the companies. joining us is mark mahaney of

evercore. mark, what will we hear from the companies? is this a tech standout or do you have concerns? >> i think the set up is we will see improved fundamental trends. we will not see big beats. i think we will see estimate revisions by the street and post with the first two. meta and google. i think the online advertising trends are recovering and there is the really powerful product cycles at meta that mean you go from 3% revenue growth to 10% in june to the september quarter and faster. that trend with margin expansion is usually very good for stocks. meta is a top pick. you will get that from google thegoogle, but it is not as pronounced. with amazon, it is the aws growth. whether it is cloud computing

segment can show acceleration or not. that is the most controversial of the names next week. >> let's dig into meta further. you think based on the chan nel checks, that reels and other channels, they been able to pic ground against who? >> no, i absolutely think it has. meta's been able to do that. i think they've been able to recover the ad budgets that they lost a year and a half ago post the apple privacy changes. they used a.i. to rebuild their ad tech stack and i think they did it very successfully. the return on ad spend has been improving nicely over the last 12 months. one of the things that's really important on the stock, becky, is whether the year of efficiency, that was this year, whether it becomes the years of efficiency, whether they give -- this is one of the few companies that will do this. they'll give you their next year's cost forecast, capex and total expenses, and if that shows continued moderation and

growth, the year of efficiency begins the years of efficiency. this stock rerates higher because meta is the cheapest high-quality tech stock out there at 16 times earnings. >> even though it's up 140%? >> even though. even though. 16 times earnings. that's what i focus on. i know it's up, but it was clobbered the year before that. just look at the multiple versus where the growth rate is. i still think this is the most attractive high-tech, high quality stock out there. >> so, when you look at amazon, the key for this one, if they don't have the same sort of potential for it, the key for this one is going to be what? whether they keep expenses in line? >> it's less that. and i think they've done a decent job of already being able to show a recovery in margins in the raetail business. it's the cloud business. the reason that amazon, the stock, has derated so much, has come down so much, is because the most interesting, attractive growth engine for the company, cloud, went from 30% growth about a year ago, a little over a year ago, to 12% last quarter.

that's a dramatic cut in the growth rate. and investors are waiting to see whether that growth rate can recover. if it doesn't, the stock is absolutely capped from here and probably has downside. if that growth rate can't recover over the next quarter or two and show real movement back to that 20% level at some point, that's really what the market is looking for, and frankly, the data points there have been very mixed intraquarter. i think it's a probability, we think it's a probability, that in the back half of this year, q3 or q4, we get that acceleration, so that's why i like the stock going into the print. i think it's a risk-reward that's asymmetric. i know what the trigger is going to be on the stock, and i think we're going to get that. if we don't, we'll get it next quarter, the re-acceleration in aws growth. >> mark, thanks for the heads-up, talk to you again soon. when we come back, we are going to talk broader markets and get you ready for the trading day ahead. when i say "we," i mean joe. stay tuned. whatever they may b. all that planning has paid off.

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we head to the countdown to the opening bell on wall street, the futures are at some of the worst levels we've seen. joining us now, portfolio manager from fl putnam

investment management. ellen, you said you perceived some of chair powell's comments as being a little more dovish. i guess what you mean by that is that he said maybe the pause will go on, but at the same time, he always gives something for both sides. he said, are we restrictive right now? if you look at the economy, i don't think so. so, which is a more important statement from him? >> great question, and he is very careful in how he communicates with wall street. i would say that because he presented the risks as more balanced between the risk of higher growth and the risk of higher inflation that he is a little bit more dovish. i think that in prior speeches, he has left the door open for a november hike, and i think there is pretty broad consensus agreement yesterday that that's off the table now, but it is leaving december open, and i think the big question is what he pointed to in his comments,

which is whether or not the higher ten-year real yield is sufficiently restrictive that it will help do some of the fed's job for it so that it needs to do maybe a little bit less at the short end, and i think the jury's still out on that. he said as much, and i think it's also true among market participates that they don't know whether or not the ten-year is doing the fed's work for it. >> well, we actually were talking about that earlier, be careful what you wish for. i mean, the ten-year, if it really is untethered, and it continues to go higher, it could end up doing more than what the fed really wants it to do. it could slow the economy down more than what the -- more than what it would look like a soft landing. >> that's the risk, right? he has always said that it works with long and variable lags. we don't know the magnitude that it's working, and we don't know the lags. we do know that the u.s. consumer is much less sensitive to interest rate increases than it used to be, according to past

playbooks. so, everyone or many people refinanced their mortgages at lower rates, so that is relatively less sensitive. people have a lot of excess savings, although that has been worked down. that means that people need to borrow a little bit less too. the economy is less sensitive. the consumer is less sensitive to higher rates than it used to be, and so the question is, does that mean that they need to do more in order to achieve the same outcome? or does it just mean it's going to be elongated? i don't think they know. that's why they are looking to remain stable for now but keep the door open for further increases. >> what's all that mean for the stock market? and thevicks is settling above 20. give me about a minute worth of what you think in terms of whether this is a time to enter, hold, exit, what do you think? >> i think the key question that investors are facing right now, joe, is whether or not the fact

that large cap growth stocks have outperformed everything else not only year to date but since may, right? the since the broadening that we saw in april and may really changed, and whether or not that is goingto come back or not. why has that happened? so, one narrative is, had the broadening ceased because people, in aggregate, sense a recession coming and therefore they're flocking to high quality? or is it simply performance chasing? and i think the way we're going to determine that is by looking at the relative earnings growth and outlooks for the small and mid cap and value stocks versus the large cap as the rest of earnings unfold over the next week or two. >> okay, great, ellen. thank you. have a great weekend. we're almost done here. we're going get a quick final check on the markets, which are down now. the dow is down triple digits. take a look at the ten-year, which is just below 5%. actually, the dow now down 99.

bitcoin made a valiant effort to get above 30, but it has turned not quite as bullish as we had seen a little bit earlier. it was up about 4% earlier, about 2.75%. you in every day next week? >> i am. >> i am, and i think our friend andrew is. that will be something. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" is coming up right now. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen, at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer has the morning off. premarket is adding a bit to thursday's losses. even with yields backing off a touch, powell's speech seen by some as dovish, but we are going into a weekend of geopolitical uncertainty. vicks near 21. our road map begins with a watch on yields. ten-year does cross 5% for the first time in 16 years, stocks looking to pull back at th