get above 30, but it has turned not quite as bullish as we had seen a little bit earlier. it was up about 4% earlier, about 2.75%. you in every day next week? >> i am. >> i am, and i think our friend andrew is. that will be something. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" is coming up right now. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, sara eisen, at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer has the morning off. premarket is adding a bit to thursday's losses. even with yields backing off a touch, powell's speech seen by some as dovish, but we are going into a weekend of geopolitical uncertainty. vicks near 21. our road map begins with a watch on yields. ten-year does cross 5% for the first time in 16 years, stocks looking to pull back at the

open. plus signs of a resilient consumer. amex beats expectations, record revenue for the sixth straight quarter. and transports continue to be in focus. they're on pace for what would be the fifth straight weekly loss for that group. csx reporting a mixed quarter on weaker rail demand. knight swift saying freight demand remains steady. let's get to that ten-year hitting 5%, as we said, late yesterday. this is what the chair had to say about bonds and rates. >> are we seeing the longer run bonds? increases in rates? are we seeing those come through in financial conditions in a persistent way, and i think if you look at financial condition indexes, the answer, so far, would be yes, you are. persistence, it will be a matter of just seeing whether or not -- but certainly, if you look at financial conditions indexes, they're showing tightening, and it's a lot because of longer rates. >> he did say a few months of disinflationary data is just the

beginning, sara, of what's going to be needed. what did you think of his discussion of term premium? >> well, he mentioned it. my takeaway on powell was, for the doves, they got what they wanted. he didn't make a strong or forceful case for raising rates again this year. but he did leave the door open for it. for the hawks, he didn't manage to cap long-term bond yields. tlfls a there was a little bit of both, but i think overall the message was he's content to wait and see like some of his colleagues on the fed are, but david did mention if the data continued to come in strong, they're resolute on inflation. they're proceeding carefully, but they would do what's necessary, i.e., have to tighten further if so warranted. i think it's interesting with the overall takeaway in the probability of fed hikes, december came down after the fed chair. so, the whole wait and see message, i think, resonated more with the market, but interestingly, then the ten-year

yield went up past 5%. so, is it fed driven or other long-term factors at work here like deteriorating fiscal issues, potentially higher inflationary pictures? the really interesting thing that's happening beyond the long yields going higher is the uninversion of the yield curve and it's kind of happening for the wrong reason. usually, the yield curve uninverts as the market gets more confident about the longer term outlook for the economy. they sell the short-term rates. but that's not what's happening. it's not a bull steepener. it's a bear steepener. it's the higher for longer, basically, getting seeped into the market's mind. >> you showed us some of the data yesterday in terms of chinese purchases or lack thereof, of u.s. treasurys. we've talked about it, when you talk about the fiscal side of it, the fact that we have to continue the issue of rate deal of supply for this year and well into next year and what that's doing. there's an argument to be made there. others will say, it's just

technical. not quite sure what that means. a lot of market participants like to tell you it's technical or it's positioning. >> the other thing that's happening is qt is in full force. they're drawing down the balance sheet, a trillion dollars down. it's still $8 trillion, so it's still a high balance sheet, but that also puts pressure on long-term rates. i think what's most remarkable, david, about this move that we're seeing, the selloff in bonds, is it's happening during this geopolitical situation where gold is now at the highest level in a few months, where there's evidence of a dash for safety, where oil prices are elevated, and yet, bonds are not acting. >> well, they did in a few days after the initial massacres, and then they didn't. and then they reverted back to sort of what we had been seeing, which was the enormous move up in yield, down in price. >> they're just not reacting to a fed chair that seems content to proceed cautiously. >> he's saying the same thing

he's opiniobeen saying, sara. >> but the odds of december went from 45% to 20%, which is not a big deal, because they weren't above 50%. what i'm saying is that normally you would see some buying of bonds on that kind of message. >> what about bostic this morning? i know he's a nonvoting member but i like listening to him. he's talking a lot of businesses who are preparing for tougher times. >> he's always been sort of attuned to the caution that's out there in the marketplace, and we hear it, and we see it in the earnings reports all the time. didn't get it from amex today. >> no, that was one of the hallmarks of yesterday was sort of a degradation in the quality of the -- at least the early batch of earnings that we had gotten late last week and earlier this week, but yeah, bostic said, can't imagine rate cuts in the first half of next year, maybe late '24. >> higher for longer or high for longer. i think he doesn't want to raise interest rates, and this has been his message, that there's more to lose by breaking what

they've got. they have got the soft landing. they do. inflation went from just under 9% to where we are right now, under 4%, and we haven't gone into recession, and the economy looks decent, and jobs are not wrecked. but can they be satisfied? no, because they're not at their target yet, and chair powell indicated that they need to -- they probably would like to see more economic weakness so they have more confidence that inflation will come down. >> right, but that, i guess, hawkish, bullish aspect is one reason we haven't strayed from 4,300. wells is out today, despite this week, elevated geopolitical uncertainty, jobless claims came in sub-200,000, and as a result, we do not see much downside to our target range of 4,200 to 4,600. they're still at 4,420 for year-end. >> you either are bullish because you're looking at the economy and earnings, or you're bearish because you're looking at treasury yields, and there's a big split in the market.

barclay's equity strategist put out an interesting note today. they looked at the last 25 years and looked at the relative pes to bond yields and actually said it's not as sharp of a correlation. in other words, they don't think, necessarily, equities are going to fall because of this move up in real yields. however, a lot of other people do and that's certainly what we have been seeing in the market. as bob pisani said, hard to get some stabilization in the stock market without stabilization in interest rates. >> well, meanwhile, we said amex, and the numbers were quite strong. cited them at the top of the broadcast. card member spending up 7% year over year. that's adjusting for foreign exchange. strongest in the u.s. consumer segment, up 9%. that's a sign, isn't it, sara? >> it's a sign of a high end. i mean, amex does cater to the high end. >> they do, they do. >> but they always mention the growth that they see in the younger generations, gen z and millennial customers. steve squary also pointed out

that has been very strong growth. they are exposed to restaurants and travel, and that's where americans are spending and global consumers are spending and prioritizing right now. they rown resy. >> it's a great app. >> you can't go anywhere without it. >> steve says our card base is a really small piece of the u.s. economy and one of the reason we have such great metrics is because we have really high-quality card member and at this point in time, they have not been impacted by anything. >> net writeoff and delinquency rates are below pre-pandemic levels. they are setting aside provisions for credit losses as we have been seeing across the financial space. $1.23 billion, so up sharply from last year, i think 60% or so, but they don't see any reason, necessarily, for caution yet, but you have to prepare for the eventual likelihood. >> stock's not doing anything. >> small business up two. probably the weakest part of the silos they watch.

while we're on financials, we'll want to watch regions today. it's going to open down 8%. this was a miss, a miss on net interest income, a miss on net interest margin. efficiency ratio was weak. they cut the guide. provisions ran a bit hot. nothing went well for this quarter. >> right, but again, it's not the all-out concerns that we had during the regional bank scare. it's just -- it's bank by bank now. it's, how are you doing on deposits? some of them are up, and some of them are down. how are you doing on provisions versus miss, and then the net interest income. but these are all sort of factors as the banks are working through a trickier environment, but they're not -- even fifth third, who was on with us, is a little more cautious about the soft landing story and still not talking about any kind of major stress from consumers or recessionary indications. just not getting it. >> yeah. i thought one of the more interesting calls today was out of bank of america, hartnett has

been bearish for a long time but did say that investors are sufficiently bearish now for the ten-year to hit a ceiling, keep a ceiling of about 5% and for s&p to basically hold at 4,200. he argues if it can't hold 4,200, that is indicative of an imminent credit event or hard landing, in his view, which is interesting. this is the resilience that we've seen in this range. >> what's a credit event? >> it's a bad thing. by the way, watch high yields. >> so glad you're here to help me. >> have you been watching high yield? >> yes. >> there's some weakness there. check out the hyg, the high-yield etf. it's showing weakness and that's also sort of a precursor to stress in the economy and the markets. we're going to pull it up here, but that's something i know people are watching because it had been cooperating for a while, as we've gotten this sort of soft landing story, but look at what's happened just in the recent weeks or so. ticked down. that's something to watch.

>> let's move on to president biden's primetime address after his return from the middle east. last night at the oval office, he delivered a $100 billion message to congress, mostly regarding funding for israel as well as ukraine. >> i'm going to send to congress an urgent budget request to fund america's national security needs, to support our critical partners, including israel and ukraine. it's a smart investment that's going to pay dividends for american security for generations. help us keep american troops out of harm's way, help us build a world that is safer, more peaceful, more prosperous for our children and grandchildren. ♪ let's get the latest on the israel-hamas war and for that, we'll go to nbc news correspondent jay gray in tel aviv. jay? >> hey there, david. it seems to be a waiting game to see which will enter first, humanitarian aid into gaza or israeli tanks. i can tell you right now that the aid is going nowhere at this

point. we expected at least 20 truckloads of food, water, and medicine to cross the rafah border crossing with egypt into gaza today, but it has not happened because, according to those on the ground, it is too volatile. we know they're continuing to repair roadways in the area that have been damaged by israeli fighter strikes. they are continuing to prepare for this move, though the u.n. has said, point-blank, 20 truckloads, a great start. we need 100 truckloads a day to satisfy the need of 2 million or more who are trapped in gaza right now, many of them with nowhere to go. the build-up of israeli defense forces along the border to the area where they intend to go in has intense foified. we see more equipment, more tanks, and what we have heard from the israeli defense forces is that the pace of attacks from the air is unlike anything

they've seen in decades, so they seem to be clearing a path right now. we have also been told that there have been contained raids by idf teams along the fencing with gaza, and that area they consider a war zone. they've also said that they believe there are still hamas operatives on the israeli side of that fence. that's something they continue to explore as well. all of that framed by the idea that protesters are continuing to pour into the streets across the region, frustration, tension, and concern growing right now. back to you. >> jay, you mentioned the southern border, but there's also tension, obviously, at the northern border with lebanon. my understanding is an israeli town nearby has been cleared. what can you tell us in terms of what we're seeing there? >> yeah, no question that that's wrapped up -- ramped up significantly over the last several days. we've seen several volleys back and forth between israeli forces

and hezbollah soldiers, fighters, on that side. and so that's something that continues to build. they are moving more equipment, more manpower into the region and there's a big concern that that could become a second front here. they have cleared out part of an area. we know that anti-tank missiles were fired at a kibbutz in the area yesterday. artillery fire returned by idf. that is picking up dramatically. >> and then the drone strikes on u.s. bases in other parts of the middle east, jay, which we saw oil prices really react to last night. they're elevated again today. what do we know? >> yeah, no, it's something that's being watched very closely, of course. missiles sent in to deal with that, and there's some thought that all of this is going to build as we see the protests build. that's something that seems to be fuel ago lot of the anger and then a lot of action across the region, and so that's something that we're watching very closely as well. most of that anger targeted at

either u.s. or israeli embassies, and you see the results of that in the actions. >> jay, thanks for that. we'll talk in a bit. obviously, going into an uncertain weekend. still to come, we'll turn our central bank focus to china and the message they're sending when it comes to key rates. we'll get to a bunch of names on this friday. csx, hpe, some reports on gm, calls on nvidia, tsm, and we'll look ahead to next week's earnings, including some mega cap tech in a minute. everywher: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

in its monthly fixing, china keeping its rates unchanged. eunice yoon in beijing with the details. there have been moves by the chinese government to boost the economy and fix some of the lending problems. >> yeah, absolutely. but what we saw is that this better than expected data this week seems to have given the policymakers a little bit of breathing room when it comes to policy, so the central bank had a stay put on the rates that are used as references for loans for businesses, as well as mortgages. there's plenty of bearish sentiment towards the yauan,

which is seen as one of the reasons against further rate cuts, but authorities here are toeing a very fine line. in fact, today, the central bank also made a record cash injection to the tune of $100 billion into the banking system. this was to keep funding costs low, of course, via reverse repos. so, barclay's, as well as stock gen, had said longer term, they expect because of the weakness in demand here that there could be a further policy cuts of about 10 basis points. housing, of course, a major factor. we saw this week, again, new home prices fall yet again in september. also, evergrande, the struggling property giant, today said they were revising their offshore restructuring program for the offshore bonds. didn't give a whole lot of detail, but what we do know is that the recognition hearing

that they had scheduled for next week in manhattan has been adjourned. now, in addition to that, of course, the country needs to deal with a lot of geopolitics, and today, we had a development on that front as well. the authorities here said they're going to be restricting the export of graphite products, certain ones that are used especially in ev batteries, these would work similarly to the ones that have been used for two key chip-making metals, and they're going to be kicking in december 1st. so, a lot of different potential challenges for the policymakers here as they try to manage their economy. >> eunice, it's david. in my world, there are those who try to understand what the response will be from the chinese to that latest round of export controls on high-end a.i.-related chips. do we think this graphite export control that you just mentioned

is the answer to what we saw from the u.s. earlier this week? >> i mean, it's difficult to say. if it was exactly a tit-for-tat or if it was something in the works for quite some time. the thinking here, though, is that the -- and what we see, actually, in the state media quite a bit is that because the u.s. has been putting in place these curbs themselves, seen here as an attack on china's tech industry, that the chinese, why wouldn't they decide to put restrictions on certain ingredients and components that are needed around the world and especially in the u.s. i mean, the authorities here had said that these export curbs for graphite weren't targeted at any one country, but it just so happens that the u.s. is one of the big recipients, as well as japan and south korea. one big question, though, is really what the impact is going to be because they are restrictions, so they're still allowed to export, and people

aren't sure exactly how the chinese are going to implement these restrictions. >> eunice, we'll talk in a bit about some reaction on the street to nvidia in particular this week after the break. good to see you. eunice yoon joining us from china. still to come, we'll follow up on netflix one day after its big rally, the biggest rally since 2021. in the next hour, some results from csx and the challenges facing the railroad operator. we'll get an exclusive with the ceo. take a look at the premarket. we're back in a moment. ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible.

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at least one report this morning, according to a top union negotiator, that the company's moving toward a tent ttent teate reenwi t uaw.agemt thhe the opening bell in just about five minutes. don't go away.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. netflix on track to extend gains a day after surging 16% on that sub growth number and the earnings beat and the price hikes. the biggest single-day gain in nearly three years. meantime, that got the attention o. writers' guild, which tweeted, "great. sounds like they can respond to s.a.g.'s demands with an offer." has nothing to do with that, though. >> no. i mean, take your shots when you have an opportunity, but that seems a little -- >> dirty pool? >> or even not necessarily focused on the -- on what's really going on. i mean, what's really going on is they kind of are the end-game player in media. you'll hear that from a lot of people, and you can't necessarily draw conclusions about the strength of that quarter and assume that the other streamers, whether they be

disney plus, max, paramount, our own peacock at comcast and on from there are going to see the subscription additions that netflix did, in part because of the crackdown on password sharing and others. sh sports rights are what's getting interested for me, sara. you've been following f1 very cl closely, but the nba -- not netflix, really, more amazon and apple -- what kind of participation will they continue to take in terms of the sports rights available? after the nfl, there's a lot of question as to the capacity for many of the existing buyers of those rights to really step up in the same way, at least the way that might be expected from the likes of the nba, which is looking for a significant increase. >> this is the prize and everyone wants it. >> yeah, i mean, but there's -- the nfl, you almost -- if you're not in, you're not alive as a company. whereas the nba, you can conceivably go for a smaller package, which may be the case.

>> when do we get that? when does that happen? >> it's in process. it wouldn't be until the '25 season. they're negotiating now. >> i mean, the analyst love on that this morning. they deserve an emmy for managing investor expectations, according to bernstein. morgan stanley says they delivered the objectives they set out a year ago, accelerating revenue growth back to double digits and expanding margins. wall street was very pleased on this one. >> yeah. let's get the opening bell here in the cnbc realtime exchange. at the big board, it's industrial player enerpac tool group. at the nasdaq, it's ego, an urban ev battery producer, celebrating its listing via spac. speaking of evs and sort of revisiting netflix yesterday, it's worth revisiting tesla as well. a lot of street observers remembered that this is the third straight earnings reaction day in which tesla has fallen

9%-plus, and there's a big note out today saying, plain volatility post tesla earnings is getting to be an easier and easier call over time. >> when you hear the biggest bu bulls, like dan ives, really trash talk the conference call and the quarter, there are questions that investors wanted answered, about when the price cuts would end, what that's going to do to margins. it was in the numbers and it feels in the tone for tesla, and i think that's what has analysts continuing to weigh in negatively, though we haven't seen any downgrades of tesla. they still love it. they still love the long-term thesis. >> even though it's down 9% after three straight earnings prints, it's still up 21% over that whole time period. >> up 75% for the year. all relative, all in context, but we're going to be watching these big cap tech earnings next week that will set the tone for the markets and a lot of them on macro drivers as well. the google with a lot of

international exposure, for instance. alphabet. same with microsoft. it will speak to, i think, enterprise demand, and that -- there continues to be questions about whether that can all hold up. >> another thing we'll talk about a lot, i think, is a.i., and when it comes to tesla, for example, they continue to invest heavily in a.i., both to fuel autonomous driving and full self-driving but also separately as well. and then, generative a.i. is going to be a key question for microsoft in terms of the introduction, of course, of its recent product -- pilot product, not to mention alphabet and bard and what they're seeing there. we haven't talked that much this week, at least, about a.i., even though there have been a number of different forums this week in which you've got very prominent people talking about things like in ten years, 80% of all jobs are going to be basically replicated by a.i.

>> it feels like it's so hard to know what the immediate impact is going to be. it's like a question for another day when it comes to valuations of companies, unless you're nvidia or, you know, some of these picks and shovels, as they say. >> right. >> that's where we are. >> as we point out many times, and i was talking earlier about copilot, microsoft's enterprise sort of a.i. product that assists you in doing your job, but as we say, right now is a great deal of investment. we haven't seen as much yet on the product side here and there, but there is an expectation, obviously, that is coming in a significant way. the other beneficiaries are sort of just, in a simple way, datacenters. you've got so much equipment that needs to be delivered into these datacenters as a result of the additional computing power that's needed to fuel these generative a.i. models that that's, you know, that's not a bad business. you can take a look at something like vertiv. remember dave cody? that was one of the more successful spacs of all time.

and you know, that's a name that has been a beneficiary of this trend. >> some follow-through to your point, carl, on the earnings movers. netflix up again. at&t is higher again today. tesla is lower. there's some carnage in the solar stocks, though, that i think are worth mentioning. after we got news yesterday from solar edge, one of the big -- i mean, lots of downgrades for that stock. it sounds like kind of a repricing there of what's going on when it comes to europe. >> they came out with a preannouncement, essentially. you can see what it's meant to the overall market cap. they're losing 35% of its value. here's the key quote. this was a preannouncement, not the full earnings. "we attribute cancellations, significant cancellations particularly from europe during the second part of the third quarter, substantial unexpected cancellations and pushouts of expected backlog, higher than expected inventory in the channel, slower than expected installation rates, much slower

at the end of the summer and september where traditionally they do see a pickup." and again, this was focused in europe, where their distributors just did not come through in terms of the demand that they had anticipated. it is having, as you point out, sara, an impact largely across the board for the likes of end phase and sun run and sonova. first solar, the big player here in the united states, and the big manufacturer here, not, as you see, suffering nearly as much. again, this was european demand. unexpectedly slow, particularly for what is typically sort of a rebound come into the fall. >> bank of america cuts the price target from $146 to $65 and goes to sell. that's the kind of action we're seeing on solaredge with the stock down 35%. they also mentioned higher rates a bunch in this report, and i am curious. that's the excuse du jour. it's valid, i'm not saying that

it's not, but having all sorts of impact there has and questions about, i think, those higher inventories and whether they're going to be able to unload them. >> meanwhile, fairly defensive stance here at the open. dow is being led by merck which did get an upgrate. verizon has earnings next week. procter, coke, and then axp is going to be the lighter, guys, des despite all the metrics we ended up talking about a few minutes ago. >> kpexpectations were built ini guess. the news from american express was pretty good on the revenue side, on the commentary side. but you know, it's an interesting one. i think that people are just expecting the consumer to turn. i think that, you know, the provisions for bad loss is a reminder they're expecting the chargeoffs to increase and the delinquencies to increase. we heard a little bit from discover this week as well. they warned about that. again, i mean, i wrote down the

quote because it wasn't a recessionary kind of thing, but they said that they raised their loan provisions to just over 7%, sbr increasing a modest deteriorating macro outlook. but modest was the keyword from discover. >> you have to wonder. travel and entertainment, up 13 in the quarter, but we did get that warning from the state department yesterday for americans traveling abroad. there's obviously been evacuation notices from the uk and the united states out of countries like lebanon, so i wonder at the margin if travel just gets a little more treacherous or at least by perception, and if that stems some buying at the margin. >> yeah, and speaking of, we are seeing energy higher again today after we saw that big jump yesterday on the news of the drone attacks on u.s. bases in the middle east. i think iraq was one of them. energy is one of the -- actually, just flipped negative, but it was opening higher. it's been kind of a mix. we've got staples up today. real estate and utilities and

health care. so, there's definitely a defensive tone to the market right now. tech's under pressure, so the nasdaq is down 0.33%. there was one staples note that stood out, rbc saying it's an overreaction to the obesity drugs here when it comes to some of these stocks. and there are other factors at work. international slowdown concerns. higher interest rates making these bond proxies less attractive, but on the question about obesity drugs and whether long-term they will impact consumer appetites for sweet and salty snacks, he says a little bit overdone when we just don't know the data. i think we're going to talk to him in the 11:00 hour of "squawk on the street." meanwhile, story on the wire this morning about novo and lilly testing older versions of wegovy or mounjaro on kids as young as 6. >> adult-onset diabetes in

children is something we've seen. we should point out, ozempic is the diabetes drug that has been out there for over five years that also showed the significant ability to reduce weight in those who took it. wegovy is the weight loss drug that novo has, and mounjaro is lilly's drug. it's got a dual mechanism in terms of replicating these hormones that can make you feel satiated, essentially, and it is yet to be approved for weight loss, mounjaro, but it's at the highest dose has the largest single weight-loss reduction, as much as 22.5% of your body weight, your bmi. so, just -- remind people what we're talking about, because sometimes i think it can get a bit confusing. and mounjaro obviously is being used off label right now, but they have yet to get the full approval for weight loss itself,

which is seen to be the most effective. i think 17% was where ozempic or i should say wegovy came in. >> they're all considered game changers, though, by the market. >> without a doubt. >> and the kids thing adds another potential revenue. 20% of u.s. kids are obese according to the cdc, defined by 99% of their body mass index that's greater than 95%. >> to the point we were discussing this yesterday, and so i did a bit more research, talked to -- listened to some things, talked to a couple people. the expectation is you're going to be on this more or less forever. somewhat similar to a staten where you just take it every day. >> well, and if you're starting it in kids, it's even longer. >> exactly. these are for chronic conditions of obesity. now they're being used differently. they're being used for people who want to just take weight off in a certain period of time, but i mean, the one doctor i was

listening to, average male weighed 270 pounds. average female was 230 pounds. that's where the chronic usage would be. >> right. guys, should probably mention gm, the second biggest s&p gainer this morning. there is a wire story that cites a union negotiator that the company's zeroing in on a tentative agreement. we're going to hear from shawn fain later today. he will have an update on facebook live, we believe, somewhere around 4:00 eastern if reporting is correct. we'll see if that's anywhere near being true. gm does have earnings next week, but in a not great tape, up 2% is going to make it the number one s&p name. interesting because seems like gm's kind of pulling away from the other two big three in terms of negotiation momentum. ford continues to lay off workers as a result of the pressures regarding supply and production. we'll see whether this turns out to be anywhere near being real. >> i can't believe how long this has been going on now. >> a month. >> phil lebeau told us.

he said it was going to go, and he was right. haven't heard from him lately. i want to get a lebeau meter. >> we have him in the next hour of "squawk on the street" with a preview of what to expect. >> i'm glad to hear that. >> another mover i'm watching is mattel because ithought there was an interesting analyst call on this. citi initiated the stock and likes it. this isn't a stock that's necessarily beloved by wall street, but they initiated as a buy at 26 so there's some upside, and they see some green shoots of a turnaround in mattel. right-sizing the cost structure and meaningful deleveraging of the balance sheet. they haven't really seen the topline growth. there was so much excitement around "barbie," but i think high hopes that they would see more of an impact on that. citi says it's still coming, potentially. it's the most valuable franchise here, and they also see a return o. disney princess as benefitting mattel.

guess that's happening. i don't know. i have two boys that aren't interested in disney princesses. >> they're not? >> no. lightning mcqueen. that's the "cars" movie. that's very big in our house. we're also getting into "star wars" now. >> that could go on for a long time. a long time. >> it feels like they're too young for it, but they're very into it. they like -- they fast forward to the battle scenes. >> really? >> the light saber battles. >> those are boys. pcs, hpe, at least, yesterday, the update, disappointing. interesting dynamic surrounding enterprise and i guess the pcs on the hardware side. acor, the taiwanese pc maker, said they believe pc demand is back. that it bottomed in may, that q3 desktop revenue's up almost 30. we did get an upgrade of best buy yesterday out of goldman, but that was no good, what happened with hpe yesterday.

>> it was their investor day, and we're going to talk to the ceo in the 11:00 hour of "squawk on the street" and it was put into the release a new guidance. i want to read the numbers because they were well below what the street is expecting. 182 to 202. the street was at 214. they're expecting a hit from currencies as well, but i think there are questions for a company that's been trying to tie itself to artificial intelligence, remember antonio has been saying that's what they're pivoting and the enterprise of artificial intelligence. but it's selling off, and it's had a few rough quarters. looking forward to hearing from him. >> should mention shares of apple. still the largest market cap by far. $2.7 trillion. some reports in the "journal" about tim cook's continued travels through the country of china which represents as much as 20% of apple's sales. and continued concerns about demand for the 15, in particular, once again t c, the

citing of that ban of government employees bringing an iphone to work, for example, and what effect, if any, that will happen. this is his second trip in not that long. he's been spending time in one of the most important markets for apple, after the u.s. and europe. >> there's been, again, very, i would argue, pinprick reporting on the way in which google's pixel is taking share in countries like japan and in a copycat move, in a way, google's beginning the production of the pix pixel in india. oil is going to zero in on two weeks of gains. we did get the headline that the u.s., according to reuters, will be a buyer for the spr, looking to add 6 million barrels by january. we'll see how easy that is given that -- wasn't the initial target, guys, to buy somewhere in the $70 range? >> oh, yeah. missed the opportunity there, as oil prices go higher.

it's hard to forecast this, because i think the wild card is iran, and why the market moved so much on word of the -- the drone attacks on u.s. bases from iranian-backed groups. so, any time that enters the fray, we talk about the big oil producer, and that's what causes oil prices to go up. any escalation that involves iran or iranian-backed forces. >> right. meantime, u.s. production is coming in on records or approaching records. we did get the reporting midweek about venezuela perhaps helping supply there, but that really was only good for a day or two of relief before prices revisited $90. interesting that gas prices are, what, $3.50 now, down some 30 cents. gas futures, 52-week lows. not sure whether that's a comment on demand and recession or whether it's some people say work from home means you drive less. elon musk was saying about getting back to the office, spoken by a man who sells cars.

>> yes, although he has very -- he's very emotional about that in general. this is a man obviously who basically has never missed a day of work in the last, i don't know. >> what did he say, let them eat cake? something like that. >> i mean -- >> it was very elitist to be able to work from home. >> he was very passionate about it. but he's taken seven days off all year. and he goes to the office every day. various offices, as you might imagine. >> he's going to roll them over for '24, check with hr. >> he might. as we go to break, the fed speak not over yet. we got harker a few moments ago, did mention that the job market is surprisingly strong, in his words. mester is coming up at 12:15, and with bostic under our belt, that's the array of fed speak for the day. but you do have the ten-year not far from session lows, just above 4.9%.

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it's been a positive week for the energy sector adding to its gain for the year. where do oil prices fit into the future? let's go to pippa stevens for a breakdown. >> energy stocks came back into focus during the third quarter with the xle rising 10%. with west texas intermediate back above 90 bucks, we take a look at which stocks within the energy sector have traded the most in line with oil prices on average over the last ten years. the closer to a value of one, the more the stock tracks the price of oil. oil fields services name halliburton came up on top. plans for drillers which directly impacts the equipment

and services that you need. tracking crude closely with more than half of the revenue coming from oil production. across the sector, apa, coterra and eqt have the lowest correlation to gas prices. they're natural gas producers. back to you. >> pippa, carl mentioned gas prices. what's happening there? are they delinking? >> are we talking about natural gas or gasoline at the pump? >> both. what's happening with gasoline prices is we have seen the spread come down significantly. refiners have been turning out a lot to get exposure to diesel, the diesel prices which are hugely still up amid cuts from russia and saudi arabia in their oil production. refiners, their utilization rates are up and that means that

gas, gasoline is being produced as a by-product as refiners keep that utilization up. >> got it. that answers it. thank you very much. as we continue to watch the energy prices, the bottom of the list of the subsectors right now, regional banks. they're getting hit hard today. down 4%. continuing to digest some of the fundamentals of that business as we go through earnings right now. it's not all bad news. the railroads are getting a bounce today -- >> regents financial, seeing -- >> problematic. >> the stock is down 14% after that quarter and that's pressuring the overall index. >> watching transports. not a good week. losing 3% for the week. one of the worst weeks since april. we'll talk more about that. it's been a negative week for that sector. we'll talk about it in the context of rails coming up

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♪ good morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." we're live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. take a look at stocks this morning. it's kind of a mixed picture. the s&p is down a third of 1%. there's strength in some of the defensive groups as you can see there. everybody else is down. energy is now lower. it's turned around. it started up higher at the beginning of the session. down 1%. and some of the cyclical groups and tech groups as well, communication services and consumer discretionary all under pressure right now. on a week where stocks are set to end lower. 1.5% right now for the s&p and for the nasdaq, about 2%. another vote for house speaker just getting under way this hour. this is number three for jim jordan.

we'll bring any headlines as soon as they happen. also, just want to show you quickly what's happening with bonds of the ten-year did breach that 5% level. it happened yesterday. post powell. we're backing off a little bit. 4.9. here are three big movers we're watching right now. amx is in the red. some of the streets pointing to the guidance potentially implying caution heading into q-4 after such a big beat. shares of solar power companies solar edge cratering this morning. the company expects lower fourth quarter revenue. and we're watching the railroads. csx, despite a revenue decline, joe hinrichs says they're seeing improving trends and he's going to join us to break down those numbers a little bit later this hour. let's get more on the markets here and the economy,

guys. because the big surprise -- i s know we're seeing the higher yields. but one of the surprises is just how much better the economy is going to look. we're going to get our first look at q-3 gdp next week. this will be interesting. this has been a week where all the economists on the street are revising higher than outlook for third quarter gdp. catching up to the, what are we, 5%? 5% is a typical one. that's not even nominal gdp. nominal is higher than that. what accounts for that? well, a number of factors. but i think the consumer spending piece of it is the biggest one. that's 70% of our economy. and there are a lot of mea culpas on wall street about how underestimated the strength of the consumer was in the face of the rising rates and inflation. one that stood out to me was pantheon which has been more negative on the economy and

looking for the fed to pivot earlier. they say now that there are revisions to the national accounts because everyone is tracking savings right now. it suggest that is the remaining stock of excess savings is twice as big as the prior data indicated and it's $1.2 trillion. economists say they underappreciated the extent of the tail wind in tax incomes after the first half. it's income growth and savings. >> the orange line is what matters there. and it kind of makes you wonder why people didn't believe bank ceos -- when they kept saying, guys, wear're not seeing the dotcom that you're translating from other services. >> we had jamie dimon talking about a hurricane. he wasn't talking about consumer spending. it's hard to track the consumer balance sheets and these excess

savings and a lot of the fed's own models pointed to the fact that they're wearing off toward the end of the year. they've remained elevate asked in the face of these new student loan payments as well, not having as much of a hit. the amx ceo saying he wasn't seeing a big impact on that from spending. >> what are we supposed to believe when it comes to the data points if they can get -- if we see a new round of -- not revisions, but data that indicates something very different than what we anticipated? >> stronger, you mean? >> yeah. >> it's something that the fed is trying to figure out too. nobody expected this and nobody knows whether it's a -- it's a good thing because it's a soft landing or a bad thing -- >> i guess my question is, was it not being pressured properly previously? >> it's hard to measure excess savings. it's not a thing. it's being measured now because there was some stimulus during covid. and people got -- the paychecks and there was nowhere to spend it. >> i know all that. >> there's a -- >> why is it difficult to

measure? >> why is it so -- that's why we -- because there's no realtime data beyond what we get from the bankers about what's going on in deposits and spending. which is why the comments have been important. weekly credit card data is important. there's a lot of high frequency data on this stuff. but there's no data release. that's why pantheon is looking at national accounts. it's more art than science. powell, for his part -- and i think the takeaway on powell yesterday, he's content to wait and see. but he did discuss this risk of hotter data. here's what he said. >> we are attentive to recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labor. additional evidence of above trend growth or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of policy. >> so there's the could warrant

further tightening of policy. wasn't quite fully dovish. i just want to bring you comments from the last hour from philadelphia fed president harker who is a voter which is why i wanted to highlight it and who is seemingly content to stay pat. >> i remain rooted in my opinion that we are at the where holding the policy rate steady is the prudent position to take. a lot of them pointing to this commentary that they're getting from business and their contracts on the ground which is why i always pay attention to the beige book which did signal that economic data is not really picking up. it's mixed signals to your point. it's hard to figure it out. let's get more investigation on where the economy is going, what the 5% ten-year yield means. lisa shallet and nathan sheets joins us. nathan, which is it? what is happening with the

consumer? >> by our reckoning, the u.s. consumer has just been exceptionally strong. and a good part of this was pent-up demand for services coming out of the pandemic. and lots of households were in a place where they hadn't gone on vacations and had entertainment and leisure activities outside their homes for several years. once the pandemic abated, households barreled out and have spent vigorously over the last couple of years. more recently, maybe some of that is starting to soften. but we're starting to see goods spending pick up. so it is a very absector that we're seeing. that was reinforced by the sales data we got last week. by our reckoning, it's hard at this stage to see much evidence

of a meaningful slowing in the consumer. and really it is supported by the tight labor market. consumer spending, hitting the labor market, supporting demand for labor, pushing up wages and then supporting more consumer spending. >> do you think the fed is going to have to tighten more to powell's point? do you think it will hurt the progress on inflation? >> i think at this point further tightening is a distinct risk. our baseline expectation is in line with that of the federal reserve. that the fed can get further traction on financial conditions by holding this rate at 5.3% for some time and as they hold the rate, there will be further headwinds to economic activity and frankly, that's supported by this run-up in ten-year treasury

yields that we've seen. that's pulling back on financial conditions generally. and now that's manifesting itself after a long while in a higher ten-year treasury yield which that ten-year treasury yield approaching 5%, that's doing some of the fed's work for it as well. >> so, lisa, what does all that mean for equity investors because the stronger economic data and consumption data is good for the soft landing for earnings, but then it also could potentially result in these higher treasury yields and more fed action which is not great usually for stocks. >> yeah, look, i think that the fundamental issue for equity investors is what multiple do you pay for what appears to be mid cycle earnings. i think that there's -- there was a thesis for a good part of this year that the -- the bear

market rally has been based on -- is that we were at trough earnings and earnings are going to accelerate from here. if in fact economic growth is as strong as the numbers -- that we're currently seeing, if that persists, and we get the earnings growth that's forecast, which for the next two years is about 12% each year, you're going to look at multiples at price earnings multiples that come down. investors have to remember, you know, it is very hard for us to be in a world where 5% interest rate competes with a 20 times forward price earnings multiple. yes, earnings may be much better, but price earnings multiples i think, you know, when you typically have a 5% interest rate, look a lot more like 16 1/2 to 17 times our

earnings and so in aggregate, you end up having an index that gets very stuck trading sideways. >> 17 times. i mean, yeah, i'm just trying to understand that, lisa. you think we're sort of a neutral territory when it comes to the s&p, let's say, for the next two years, despite what will be 12% on 12% in terms of earnings growth. >> potentially. because if you get that type of earnings growth, it means that you still have pretty strong top-line growth and you still have inflation risk. and so, you know, i think investors really need to think about how you get there. i'm not saying that the index necessarily has to go down to get you there. but it means that, you know, those earnings just get absorbed by lower multiples and you just say stuck in this zip code where the index itself, the s&p 500, has a really hard time breaking

above prior highs which as we know is about 4800 back in january of 2022. everyone, you know, has been high-fiving about the market's recovery here year to date. but the reality is on a two-year basis, the market has gone absolutely nowhere. the s&p 500 is trading about where it was in mid-2021. we're still, you know, 10, 11% below the all-time high in the s&p 500 and we're about 16% below the all-time high in the nasdaq. i know that shocks people. to remind them that most investors have not round tripped their losses from this bear market. >> and then there's small caps. the iwm i think is basically flat, nathan, since covid began and i wonder if you think that reflects funding pressures or lack of access to capitoal? it shows up in the numbers. >> absolutely. we're certainly in that camp.

>> national han? >> the small business sector is one that when you look at some of the sentiment, it does feel softer. exactly what's going on i think is an interesting question. i think your hypothesis -- maybe it has something to do with funding is a good one. the reality is that these smaller firms are dependent on banks and particularly dependent on small banks. and what we're seeing in the fed's senior loan officer survey is a distinct tightening of credit conditions. many of these firms were hit hard by covid. in services and i think of had the scamper to try to fund additional labor and that's been a bit of a problem, a bit of a drag on them going forward. so i think there are a lot of

things that you're seeing in the equity prices and indications of small firm activity. >> we'll leave it there. a really good conversation with both of you. thank you. we continue to monitor the israel/hamas war. jay gray live from tel aviv with an update for us. jay? >> reporter: yeah, and, look, the world watching to see which comes first, if we have the tanks that are assembled at the north end of the gaza strip or the trucks loaded with aid at the south end moving into gaza at this point. we expect to see the trucks loaded down with food, water and medicine, moving into gaza this morning. that did not happen. the situation on the ground, we are told, just too volatile right now to bring that much-needed aid and 2 million people or more trapped in gaza right now and haven't seen deliveries of just the basic

necessities for more than two weeks at this point. on the north end, we continue to see these troops aligned and ready to move in. tanks and other gear in place along with thousands of soldiers. we know that we've heard from the israeli defense minister who has said that they've seen gaza from afar, but these troops will see it from the inside soon. all indications seem to be that they are heading and getting closer to that ground assault that we've talked about now for several days. more bombing runsby israeli fighter jets throughout the evening. today, hundreds of strikes were made and we know that they are also carrying out contained raids near the fence with gaza. they do still believe that some hamas operators are inside israel. they're working to try to identify those as well. but it continues to be a waiting game between the aid and the tanks rolling in. and right now, neither has

moved. >> jay, thank you very much. we'll continue to turn to you for updates on the hour. jay gray from 12. as we head to break, here's our road map for the rest of the hour. csx shares are pushing higher. and what the ceo is seeing when it comes to the broader economy. what is beating the ten-year as an investment. we're looking at everything from high yields, cds, to bond etfs and dividend-paying stocks. and shares of fitness stocks getting a boost as investors weigh the impact of these obesity drugs. g owti aadbish sllhe. stay with us.

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with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. we're taking a look at the transports in our sector sort today on pace for its third negative day in a row. fifth straight weekly loss, down about 3.5% for the week. the biggest drags, the airlines as we mentioned early, united, delta, southwest, all down 4% or more. and there's the truckers. jb hunt. the company ceo did warn we're not at a point yet to say we're out of the freight recession. >> we have another read now with csx, sticking with the transports. those shares are higher. citing weaker rail demand. morgan brennen is here to discuss along with a special guest. hi, morgan. >> it's good to be here.

we have a special guest and that's the ceo of csx joe hinrichs. thanks for being with us today. >> good morning. thanks, morgan. >> csx does a lot of work with jb hunt. when we hear the comments about we're not out of a freight recession yet, how do you see it? >> well, actually, we're seeing mixed results overall. part of the issue is the international business, things coming into the ports. it's been down all year and still down. we've seen that stabilize. but encouragingly, we've seen growth now for the last several months of domestic mobile business which jb hunt is a provider of. that's been encouraging to us. we showed that last night. for a number of months now it's been growing year over year and we're seeing that into the fourth quarter. >> that's something. we have an economy that doesn't seem to be growing. we know retailers are working off these higher inventories. to hear stabilization in that part of the market certainly gets attention. >> yeah, i think there's a

couple things. there was a significant destocking in inventory and perhaps that's played itself out. a lot of the things that we touch are more fundamental to the economy. not so much on the retail side. which, of course, is why i think international has been down. our merchandise business which touches that industrial complex, we've grown volumes this year. i think for csx, what's playing out is our leading service numbers in the performance we're gi giving to our customers is bringing onto our network. >> i want to get into that a little bit. first, just one more macro question for you. at a time where we are seeing economic data, that is holding up and more resilient than many folks had expected going into this year, is that what you're seeing in realtime too given the fact that you do move so many different types of good across so many industries here in the u.s.? >> yeah, we're encouraged by what we're seeing in the fourth quarter. i don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves.

in the first three weeks, we've seen growth in sectors that have been stagnant for most of the year, chemicals, plastics. it's been down all year along. coal and automatic continue to be strong. we're seeing signs of optimism in the chemical side. that's one to watch. pulp and paper still a little bit short. but we've seen encouraging start to the quarter so far. >> okay. i want to get your outlook for pricing. just as importantly in a disinflationary environment that can be a double-edge sword, the outlook for costs. >> on the pricing side, we've been supportive this year. i think people see the value that rail provides on esg but on the total cost proposition. we have labor inflation and we're going to see more of that next year. we're running better which is helping us offset some of the costs. if you look at our costs from second quarter to third quarter, we kept them in line. there's inflation on rail ties

and all those kinds of things as well and that's going to continue to eat into our business. >> you were talking about service that's been a big focus for you at csx since you took over, improving service metrics. you've taken market share. where is that happening most meaningfulfully, is that from your director competitor norfolk southern or the truckers? >> it's a little bit from everything across the board. you think about automotive. that's largely been based on service. but also on the domestic side, we're seeing growth there. our industry leading service metrics and performance is leaning into csx more. so our customers are thankful. i was a customer for decades. i'm never going to lose sight that we are providing great service and it helps the economy and our business and customers overall. >> coal held in strong in q-3. volumes up 9%.

this was driven largely by export coal as we see global demand continue to remain resilient for it, both in terms of thermal and met coal. given the geopolitical situation right now, the increased demand tied to the war in ukraine and tensions across the world more broadly right now, does that continue? >> yeah, we think so. we're hearing from our customers that it will. a lot of it is going to india for steel production and a lot of it is going to eastern europe. and you can see, obviously, with ukraine, there's more steel production needed. we're seeing demand for thermal exports as well. but prices are up. not where they were last year, but certainly up during the course of this year. and strong demands. we see that going forward for quite some time. >> i want to shift gears a little bit. you've been through a number of labor negotiations. not just as a new ceo at csx last fall when the railroads were going through their negotiations.

but also as a top executive at ford before that. walk we through how this plays out potentially with the uaw as we're now four weeks into the strike and we see more facilities or at least we have in recent days expanded. >> yeah, morgan. i think i had the pain and privilege of leading four national negotiations with uaw. every single one of them is unique and different and this one obviously is very unique. i never thought i would see the day where a lot of the pain was inflicted on ford given the historic relationship with uaw. it's in both parties' interest to find a solution. the winners are the competition. so, you know, obviously ford, gm and stellantis have to be competitive to keep investing. but of course the workers want their fair share as well. obviously we hope there's a solution. we obviously move a lot of automotive. we're the number one automotive mover in the rail sector.

it's important to us too. but we're encouraging both sides to find a resolution. i don't see how this benefits anyone if it continues to go like this. >> okay. joe hinrichs. great to get your thoughts today. the shares are higher for the year and leading the transports higher today in what is otherwise a down week. >> the pain and the privilege of dealing with the uaw is a good way to put it. morgan, thank you. the s&p for its part set to end the week in the red. 1.5% at this point in the game. check out the names bucking the trend, top gainers for the week, netflix is there. bf corp. gets an activist investor engaged in its stock. other rngseain movers in the mix as well. we'll be right back. >> announcer: realtime exchange sector sort is sponsored by sector spdr etfs.

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4.937 right now. are there other areas that you can access to get even an higher return perhaps with more risk? let's get over to dom chu who has some details on returns. >> david, not even perhaps more risk. it's outright more risk. let's start by saying as investors are getting yields of 5% on longer term u.s. government debt, risk-free debt backed by us the taxpayer at large, you're getting north of 5% on shorter-term debt. 5.416%. you need a compelling reason to go yield chasing in this environment. the dividend yield right now is just around one-half of 1%. the dow 30, that so-called the diamond trade, that dividend yield is 2% right now and that's like that blue chip part of the index. give you a perspective versus 5%

treasury yields. within the s&p, there are 48 stocks that have dividend yields of 5% or more at this moment. only nine of them have those yields without a drop in the stock price. if you want that added layer of security on those dividends payments on the stock side of things, relative safer, you can screen for higher yields in those so-called dividend aaris troe accurates. in the s&p 500 dividend, only six of them have yields of 5% or more now and only one of them has had positive price performance over the last 12 months, that's asset manager franklin resources. year to date, down 14%. but it's still up roughly 3.5% on a one-year basis. there's the bond options. the spdr bond, yielding just around 2.7% right now. you can see for that one, for

that, it's 2.7%. the i shares investment grade eft is yielding 4.3%. higher grade investment debt. and the high-yield bond fund is 6% right now. that gets you north of 5% for more risk. i will point out, that apolo chief global economist said this morning that the equity risk premium that you get in the market right now versus risk for yields on the bond market have made stock valuations the least attractive relative to bonds in two decades. carl, that's the reason why many investors are thinking about if you want to go into things other treasury debt if it's yielding 5%. i'll send things back over to you. >> that's a good break down. there are alternatives now. dom chu. meanwhile, what do investors make of the stock market with

these yields at 16-year highs. longtime market vet floor operations art is with us. we'll get his take on the growing geopolitical risks abroad. we're back in two.

getting breaking news out of washington. the white house is breaking down some of the requests that the president made last night. >> the grand total is $105 billion. that's the request from the biden administration to capitol hill for new aid to israel and to ukraine. senior administration officials breaking down the details inside that request for reporters over the past few minutes. here's what we know so far. they're asking for $61.4 billion for ukraine, $14.3 billion for israel, there's another piece in here that's going to be humanitarian assistance. that's going to be 9.5 million.

not a lot of breakdown of how much is going to gaza or ukraine. but that's the humanitarian assistance figure overall. interestingly, $2 billion in this request for the indo-pacific region. that including taiwan. obviously, another hot spot that the president sort of alluded to a little bit to last night. border operations here in the united states, that request is $6.4 billion. a whole breakdown of what that money could go to. but the president here signaling that he needs more funding for the border and security there here in the united states. overall, $105 billion is the total figure here and interestingly, carl, this letter is sent now to capitol hill. it's being sent to the speaker patrick mchenry. there's no speaker of the house right now and it's not possible for congress to move forward until there is a speaker elected. not clear exactly congress would be able to move forward with this if republicans on capitol hill can't pull their conference

together and elect a speaker of the house in the coming days. of course, the question is, what priorities to republicans have and how would they change this request. the request from the president is an act. it's congress that ultimately spends the money. carl, back over to you. >> as the ap just wrote, the white house seeking swift action despite house chaos. thanks. let's get a news update with bertha coombs. >> here's what's happening at this hour, 20 truckloads of humanitarian aid still stick on the egyptian side of the border with gaza today. negotiations over the logistics of the deliveries said to be continuing this morning over israel's concerns that the aid be kept away from hamas. a united nations spokesperson told reuters that the trucks were due to start moving, quote, in the next day or so. a texas judge has ruled conspiracy theorist alex jones cannot use bankruptcy production to avoid paying more than a

billion dollars to sandy hook families for his conspiracy theories that the massacre was a hoax. it's the latest in a string of legal defeats for jones after juries in connecticut and texas found him liable for spreading falsehoods about america's deadliest school shooting. a maryland judge was shot multiple times in his driveway thursday night. police say washington county judge andrew wilkinson was transport today the hospital and later died. police say they're looking for a man in connection with the investigation according to the court docket, judge wilkinson oversaw a court hearing about the man's divorce thursday morning. back over to you. >> bertha, thank you. cnbc's latest all-america survey is out. the results may surprise you when it comes to the stock market. let's get to steve liesman with some of the details. >> americans down on the economy, down on stocks and worried about their retirement. take a look at the outlook here.

i'll cut to the chase. this is one of the largest gap between those who were negative saying it's a bad time to invest in stocks. you got to go back. here in 2020, we had a big gap and, again, back here, coming out of the financial crisis we had a very large gap right there. where do people see opportunity? interestingly, realize estate s coming down. it goes on as well when you look at real estate was 39% in april, 2022, now it's 32%. stocks, you can see here, they're up just a little bit 17%. a little bit more interest, but maybe not as much as you would have thought when it comes to interest in savings investments and cds. crypto coming way down. first got into our list a year or so ago and it was pretty high. it was as high as 17. now it's down to 18%. let's look at those with actual

money in the market with $50,000 or more. more positive on stocks. that's a good sign. but getting a little more interest in treasuries if you add in corporate bonds. it's actually 27% in terms of fixed incomes. rivaling stocks and, again, not so hot on -- when it comes to crypto. let's look at the issue here when it comes to people being stressed out about how much they have saved for retirement here. if you have no investments in the market, 54% of those we polled have concerns -- are stressed about their savings. even if you have investments in the market. look at this, if you have more than 50,000 in the market, only 28% are stressed. moving on by age, coming down, coming down. 65 and older, not stressed about how much they have saved for retirement. i actually think this is a good thing. i don't know what you guys think. the fact that 18 to 34-year-olds are focused enough on how much they're saving for retirement

that they're stressed out about, i think it's a good sign. i don't know what you think, carl? >> wasn't it written about the boom ea boomer nest egg? >> the greatest transfer of wealth, i think it was 7 trillion. that's the number that's often kicked around. there's a big chunk coming down. by the way, it's a little bit of a tax chunk depending on the tax laws at the time for the federal government as well. >> fascinating numbers. thanks. stocks in the red this morning as the street heads towards the close of the worst week in a month. ubs financial services operations director joins us this morning. can't say that you didn't warn the street about the prospect of higher yields. i wonder if you think 5% is any kind of ceiling now? >> well, actually, the technical ceiling on the cocktail map is

probably around 5 and a quarter. but we did touch it yesterday very briefly in after hours. what you've got there is a push/pull between the flight to safety, with all these -- all these wild things going on around the globe and the fact that the usual buyers of u.s. bonds, the chinese and the japanese, are pretty much elsewhere. the chinese are having their own economic problems. the japanese are trying to get things started. so the normal buyers aren't there. that's why yields are going up despite what should be a general flight to safety. and then to take us way off course, carl, this thing with the speaker of the house is so bizarre, the -- we're in a near state of war and heaven forbid

if something should happen to the president or vice president, the presidency would then move to the speaker of the house. would it move to the president pro tem of the -- speaker pro tem of the house? what are the constitutional rules for that. it can get even whackier. only the house of representatives can declare a state of war for the nation. and without a full speaker of the house, it cannot happen. one can only imagine that in moscow and beijing and other places, they're sitting down and saying, very confusing american way of politics and can we do anything to frustrate it? here we re. >> as somebody said yesterday, if it happened to any other country, the u.s. would be calling for stability from afar. that said, art, in terms of

levels here, i mean there's been a lot of discussion this week about resilience and you should hand it to equities for holding in 4300 at the time. i wonder where you think now the bulls -- what's the must have, the must do? >> the really must is in general terms, 4200 and the s&p and if you want to get technical and extra sharp in the pencil, it's about 4175. so you break the 4200, that may be a bit of a culture shock. if you then have a cascade sell-off, it takes you below 4175. i think you're going to see people start to hunker down and maybe take some money out. >> you know what's weird, so treasuries are not acting like safe havens right now. the dollar is weaker on the week. usually the dollar rises during geopolitical unrest when gold is catching a bid here, dollar is

weaker. it rises when treasury yields are rising. this whole notion of safe havens is being flipped on its head. >> it is being twisted and turned here, sarah. and that's why i say, if you -- if you went by the book, if there was such a book and said, well, okay, this leads to this, this has been bizarre two months. nothing has led to what it's supposed to lead to. and, therefore, it's difficult to guess. as i say, heaven for bid the geopolitical leaders of our adversaries may be looking and saying, is there anything we could do to confuse this even farther? it is going to be an interesting weekend. we have a muslim day of prayer today and a jewish day of prayer tomorrow. and the ground defensive looming and looming and looming.

this is not going to be one that people are going to sleep comfortably through the weekend. >> art, we may need to scrap the ice cubes this weekend and just drink it neat. >> anyway, carl, i have two extra bottles. >> before we let you go, if anybody wrote the book, it was you. is there any tell in you for this market right now in terms of what the main thing you're going to watch over whether it's -- with the markets closed this weekend or early next week? >> certainly you want to stay above that 4200. when they broke 43, this was there. and i think what i'm going to watch is what does happen with that yield on the ten-year. do they revisit and do they punch above it? if they punch above it, it might be like touching the third rail and you might get a response in the market. 4200 at worst case. and then 5% in the ten-year

yield. we've got a lot of touch pads around here and you want to be careful what you're touching. >> art, thanks so much. talk soon. >> my pleasure. still ahead, breaking down the ozempic effect on one key sector and the key names wall street says could benefit here. those details are next. we have the dow down 156. e ekowo ss f n tloesor thwe. healthcare should evolve with you, and part of that evolution means choosing the right medicare plan for you. humana can help. hi, my name is sam davis and i'm going to tell you about medicare advantage prescription drug plans that can provide more coverage than original medicare, including prescription drug coverage, all wrapped up into one convenient plan. with original medicare you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each. and then you're still responsible for 20% of the

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plenty of commentary this quarter from executives about the ozempic effect, as companies like nestle and lifetime fitness look to cash in on the trend. brendan gomez with more to watch in the fitness spector because identify heard from people on it, i don't have to go to the gym anymore. >> it's been buzzy conversation. we've talked about some of the potential negative impact but the street's been positive on fitness names. morgan stanley saying names like

lifetime group, planet fitness plan to benefit. evercore updated this week as one of the best consumer plays. shares are up 5% or so. you see that pop in shares on tuesday. other companies leaning in further. i spoke with the lifetime group president and coo about his plan to meet the demand he's hearing from some club members. >> i'm in the process of embarking on a pilot program that does exactly that. for us to evaluate through the use and deployment of physicians, physician assistants, nurse practitioners, that would be on -- in-house at lifetime and working in an integrated way with their primary care doctor, with our personal trainer, our registered dietitians, to create that comprehensive program. >> working in-house at lifetime.

he added they're only doing this, though, through extensive blood panel analysis and alongside fda requirements of increased physical activity. speaking to your point, sara, this will not dip attendance to gyms. it's similar to what weight watchers has successfully done since acquiring telehealth company sequence in april. connecting diet and fitness with weight loss drugs. in short, this isn't a sit on your couch and watch the pounds melt away miracle drug at the moment. the street remains bullish on names where consumers will most likely turn to maintain their weight loss journey. >> yet another sector we have to watch with the development of these drugs. thanks. meantime, hbe shares turning negative on the year under this pressure on this disappointing outlook for cash flow and profits next year. we'll break down the business in the next hour. this is spring semester at fairfield-suisun unified.

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the strike of the uaw entering now its sixth week. we'll get another update from union president shawn fain in a

few hours from now. we have phil lebeau with what i like to call the lebeau meter. it's dead on accurate. what do we know and where are things going from here? >> it's progressing. i know that's not an answer people want to hear. there was a headline that came out overnight from bloomberg that had people think we're close to a settlement between general motors and the uaw. there was a labrally yesterday in detroit. the head of the gm negotiating committee basically said, we're making progress with general motors. all the pieces are there to put together. that doesn't mean they're close to an agreement. take that with a major grain of salt. yes, they are making progress and they're talking more. uaw president shawn fain will be on facebook at 4:00. losses and layoffs continue to grow. stellantis adding another round of layoffs at toledo. they have laid off 1,500 workers since the beginning of the strike. ford is feeling the most pain, according to jpmorgan, losing $44 million a week.

for general motors, the pain is a little less, but still there, $21 million a week. 4:00 is the update. >> where is the lebeau meter now? >> it's not as pessimistic but it's still not optimistic that we see a resolution. how's that for dancing around? >> that's all right. you're allowed. it's across the board? is gm ahead, so to speak? >> i don't know you would say ahead. they may be a little more advanced. >> phil, thank you. thanks for flying in from chicago. >> just for this. >> phil lebeau. a lot more "squawk on the street" straight ahead. s good te help. because the rightd te information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's yours free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the

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good friday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen on the floor of the new york stock exchange. antonio neri is with us on heels of their investor day. the outlook on impact of a.i. and the cloud sector straight ahead. are we overreacting to the ozempic effect? one analyst says we are and making some stocks very attractive. he'll join us to make the case. solar edge getting crushed as preliminary results are being released. we kick it off as we always do with the markets. stocks are moving slightly lower as the focus continues to be on bond yields. the ten-year crossing the key