most important as it relates to ai. kevin simpson? >> microsoft. off 6% since the last earnings report. they crushed it, double digit growth for years. i like the stock. >> i'm staying short the itb. i don't see any good news construction. >> see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ thank you, scott. and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. the ten-year yield crossing 5% for the first time since 2007. we jumped a full point now since early august. chair powell saying monetary policy isn't too restrictive yet, but is that five handle enough to take more hikes off the table? we'll ask a five star funds manager about that. while powell is keeping options open, the philly fed says the fed should stop hyping. the main street issues that have him worried.

with yields hovering at 16-year highs, technology is under pressure. we'll tell you what the options market is saying about the big names, including microsoft, amazon and alphabet reporting next week. first, though, dom chu, welcome back. how is it looking? >> pretty red right now, although off of the worst levels of the day. but technology is leading the way lower here. the nasdaq is off about 105 points, three quarters of 1%. the dow industrials, the outperformer, only down about one quarter of 1%, 93 points. the s&p 500 is kind of where the rubber is meeting the road today. it's sitting down one half of 1%. it's been a predominantly down day. we were down two points at the highs of the session, but down 48 points at the lows, so in between that range. but remember, watch that level. 4233 is what some traders are watching right now. that represents the 200 day

moving average. that kind of average price on a longer term rolling basis for the s&p could be an area of support, maybe not. but a level some are watching, so keep an eye on that. elsewhere, transportation stocks in focus. we had csx. some fundamental stories, but generally speaking, this transport trade has been very weak. at the peak that we saw back in july right here, the gap between the dow industrials and dow jones transportation index stood here roughly at 16% to 17%. it's since converged to where we are right now, just about 4.5% difference, 5.5% difference between the two of them. is that transportation trade perhaps an indicator of things to come? that remains to be seen. an interesting macro side of things here, picture move. gold prices have caught a safety bid. maybe no surprise there, given the middle east tensions. you can see it on a relative

basis that slight uptick in gold prices. but what's interesting is bitcoin prices. they have kind of moved out above a near-term trading range that we have been in over the last several months, this being propelled in some ways by some optimism from coinbase's chief financial officer that the fcc and the regulators will have to green light some of these bitcoin etf applications. so watch bitcoin prices and gold. is bitcoin the new safety trade? i'm not sure, kelly, but there are some interesting moves happening with bitcoin and gold. back over to you. >> the 4233 on the s&p? >> that's the so-called 200 day moving average. we'll keep a close eye on that. let's talk about that ten-year yield top ping 5%. let's turn to rick santelli with

more on this. rick, take this wherever it needs to go. >> well, i think the best way is to take a short view. if you look at an intraday of 2s, it's been moving down in yield. if you pair it with yesterday, i want you to notice how we're doing so much work well below yesterday's low yields, and realize that yesterday we had a higher high and a lower low yield than the previous day. that's called an outside session. and it usually means trend reversal, which is exactly what's going on. if you look at a ten-year, look at the intraday, it's pretty much moving lower recently in the last couple of hours. the short-end let yields down. we almost have an identical range to yesterday. why is that so important? it's important because geopolitical issues are making a flight to safety. and even though long maturities have come down in yield, many

traders were nervous to move down the curb. so they started buying sharp data like two-year early in the session and long dated follows. and if you further look at the fact, let's take a big view and go to january of '21. you'll see that the spike there in march of this year, the high yield close that stood was 5.07. now look at where we are at. let's apply that same chart to 10s. their first important cycle high yield close was much earlier in september of last year at 4.25%. look at the distance difference from that, from 4.25 to where we are at now to 4.91. that is significant. also consider, last week we closed ten-year note yields at 4.61. they're currently at 4.91. we're up 30 basis points.

so they're basically unchanged. that means 2s to 10s moved about 30 basis points. that is the story of the day. back to you. >> thank you, rick. rick santelli. let's get an investor's take on the market now. the next guest is changing his fixed income playbook amid rising rates. is he scooping up long-term treasuries at these levels? ben kirby joins us now. welcome. good to have you here today. >> great. thanks, kelly. >> all in on the tlt? can we even mess with bond etfs or do you have to own the whole thing to maturity and not go there? these moves have created massive opportunities. which ones do we need to step in front of? >> absolutely. excuse me. i think that there is a lot of pessimism on bonds today, and we think that longer term yields look attractive. yields at 5% we think are going to be relatively strong returns

over the next two years. >> in order to be strong total returns, you're saying we avoid them going to 6% or 7%. if you hold it to maturity, maybe you think inflation is not going to be a problem. >> yeah. i think inflation is coming down. you know, even if short-term rates are 5%, it's going to be hard for short-term rates to be 5% for the next ten years. that's how we think about that ten-year bond. it's an afternoon of the short-term rate over the next ten years. >> back it up for a second, you know, you're looking across the asset classes as you can do tonight. where are your most heavily allocated? >> so we think it makes a lot more sense to be taking fixed income risk today than equity risk, simply because of where equity multiples are. if you can get high-yield credit at 9% return, that's pretty attractive. that looks a lot like equity

returns over time, with much lower risk. or get corporate investment grade at 7%, and that looks attractive. so we've been taking cash and buying duration and taking the equity and buying credit. >> so you have exposure to alphabet, maybe even visa. are these falling rate plays? >> you know, in many cases, they're iddiosncratic. alphabet is a special case, as well. alphabet is one of the best businesses in the world. they're ai beneficiaries, trading at 20 times earnings. that's an asset you want to own for the long-term. so there is definitely pockets of the, you know, of the equity market that make a lot of sense. our view is that overall, the equity market was expensive. but individual stocks,

individual cases, bottom up investing is really the base to be positioned today. >> we'll talk more about the energy space in those plays later. ben, thanks for your time today. we appreciate it. if higher rates are the new normal, and maybe they're not. 5% ten-year, is it here to stay? we're getting some clues from cnbc's latest all-america economic survey. steve liesman is here with those results. >> we tried to drill down into how these higher rates play out amok the general public. 1,001 respondents to our survey. let's look at what it does relative to paying off or not paying off a credit card debt. 27% say they're more likely to pay it off, 23% say less likely. for 47%, it makes no difference. for the rest of this discussion and the next guest, remember that 47%. that's going to come up a little bit more. let's take a look more broadly at other aspects of people's

potential purchases here. 11% say more likely. 54% say less likely to buy a car. 52% less likely to get a new credit card. same with buy a new home, 55% less likely and taking out loans, about half. another chunk of folks not affected. we're going to keep going here. what about higher interest rates, do they help or hurt your household? let's look at this data. 11% say it's an advantage. 44% say a disadvantage. and look at that again, 41%, no effect. you see what i'm getting at here? we're trying to figure out why the economy is doing so well, and higher interest rates are not biting more. look at those numbers of not affected. here is a breakdown of groups that are relatively more advantaged and less advantaged. it means they're higher than the average. men over 50, professional managers, those with more than $50,000 invested in the market.

those with post grad degrees, well-to-do, advantaged, disadvantaged. ages 35 to 40, right in that home buying area, the disadvantaged. also, incomes $50,000 to $70,000. white collar workers. one more screen here. take a look at the demographic difference between young and old. you can see there, not so much advantage for the older folks, but less effect overall is what you see when you look at that for those retired or have, you know, living on fixed incomes. >> can we show that graphic one more time of who is advantaged? is this just a very small -- maybe people who are earning that yield in cash, that previously didn't -- >> exactly what -- >> i can't think of another -- >> i think that's the reason. we did show that there are fewer people taking advantage in terms of their investment choices, not fewer, but not as many as you would think. but there is a class of people

who are. there is -- there are groups of people who are tremendously stressed out by these high interest rates, but they're also pluralities that seem to be living outside that universe and not affected. so i think it's something that, over time, is going to have an effect. but for big chunks of the economy, they are not buying right now. >> perfect tee up to our next discussion. our next guest is here to talk about why we are not seeing a bigger impact. paul donovan says there is some extra spending power going into 2024. paul, welcome. you don't think inflation is biting quite the way the cpi might be indicating. so steve is talking about why aren't high rates having a bigger impact. you are saying why isn't measured cpi having as big of an impact. what do you see here? >> in the united states, one quarter of the inflation basket

is a prize called owner's equivalent rent. it's a fantasy price, a price nobody pays. it's an attempt to measure the price of owning your own home. at the moment, it's running at just over 7% a year inflation. but nobody actually pays this price. if you are a homeowner in the united states, you either have no mortgage, so zero year over year inflation, or one of the 95% of mortgage holders who locked in your mortgage at a fixed rate with no inflation. so this fantasy price is pushing up cpi, and the reality for the middle income family that owns their own home in the united states is their personal inflation is substantially lower. so we're talking about inflation on average in the united states of about 2% for middle income homeowners. and in some parts of the united

states, you're talking about homeowners having an inflation rate of less than 1%. >> wow. >> that's giving an awful lot of spending firepower. >> interesting. >> go ahead, steve. >> i feel like i need to explain why we use owner's equivalent rent. i'm brought back to the nightmare four-hour conference i sat through where they debated this issue of whether or not to include actual housing prices or owner's equivalent rent. to make a long story short, it's an effort not to include asset prices in the cpi. you don't want to put the price of the house, because they don't want policy reacting to the actual price. >> here's a question, why can't they just -- they're trying to impugn what it would cost to rent a home. why can't they survey people and say what is your mortgage payment? and then just use that in the cpi? >> paul, did you say 39% of americans are sitting with fixed cost? which is close to the 40% of our group that's not affected by

higher interest groups, is that what you had said? >> when you look at homeowners, it's around 2/3 of american households own their own home. of course, you are talking there about people who either got no mortgage at all, or people who are paying a fixed rate mortgage. over here in the united kingdom, we do things differently. we have very low-rate mortgages. so that makes a difference. interest rates going up is a big problem in the uk. but over in the states, you're living the easy life. >> paul, i have seen something about the average mortgage rate being 3.5% to 4% of those who have mortgages. so this gets at an important issue. it's the effectiveness of monetary policy gets at this lag question, which is bedevilling the federal reserve right now. it speaks to the idea that the

lags are, in this case, in infinitely less than in canada or the uk. >> fewer people are exposed to the random decisions of fed chair powell, which is very good for the american citizens who are immune. but it does mean that the fed policy -- the governor of the bank of england is wielding over in the uk. you know, most people in the uk know who governor bailey is, because he affects their day-to-day life. fewer than half of the american population know who fed chair powell is. >> the trouble with this argument, paul, i'm trying to lead it down a different path here. on the one hand, it suggests to me that the fed ought to throw this out and really doesn't need to be quite as high right now. that's one conclusion. >> or do they need to be higher because they're not affecting the day-to-day kind of mortgage --

>> not if inflation is lower. and those are two paths i was going down. paul, do you want to solve that conundrum? what's the right policy reaction to this data? >> so i think the right reaction is to look at what actually is going on in inflation in the united states for many, many people. and to recognize that actually the u.s. doesn't have an inflation problem. you can argue it's got a florida problem. you've got a lot of regional divergence, and the fact that when you strip out the owner's equivalent rent, you can look at the harmonized consumer price inflation figure published by the states. that's a rough indication of what's going on. the fed does look at core inflation, which is a way of getting around this. you're seeing just the absence of inflation pressures in the real world.

call me crazy, but i think it would be a good idea if fed chair powell lived in the real world when making these decisions. >> the other problem i have is the survey shows americans deeply troubled by inflation. when we ask what your biggest problem is, it's inflation. when we ask what the biggest stress in your life is, it's inflation. how can you be out there saying it's not as big a problem when every survey, not just our own, says inflation is the biggest problem? >> so here's the thing, consumers are absolutely useless at analyzing or forecasting inflation. we all do it. we pay attention to the things we buy frequently. so high frequency purchases dictates inflation. so over here in the uk, if the price of tea goes up, the whole country is an uproar. over in the united states, if the cost of filling up a family

suv with gasoline is going up, everyone thinks inflation is out of control. in fact, it's not that big a part of your overall family budget, but it's a price that every single week we're reminded of. so you get this very skewed position. so when you have rising food and fuel prices, as we have had in the states of late, that tends to be the thing that people remember and they forget about the fact that the televisions are collapsing in price or the fact that car prices are coming down. they focus on the high frequency purchases. so it gives you a distorted perception of what's going on. >> we're starting to see a little bit of pricing maybe even a november rate, like 2%. but would you be comfortable with that? >> well, if i was running the federal reserve, and sadly, with my accent, i'm not allowed to do that, i think the fed has probably overshot. i don't think they're going to cut at this stage, though. that's not what we have got and what we're hearing from the fed.

>> even with the labor market? people will say jobless claims, sub-200. >> the labor market data has become a lot less reliable. the bureau of labor statistics has within begging for years for more money, so we have to be a little cautious. we're not seeing massive wage growth. we're not seeing a tightness in the labor market really pushing up cost pressures. and the direction of inflation, which is what the fed is here to control, i think it's clearly downwards. >> paul made me think that there's a product inflation trigger in every country. tea in england, gas in the united states, seal skins in greenland? i don't know. >> careful you don't trigger more than a revolution here with these kind of -- >> rice in some countries. >> and eggs in america.

>> exactly. those are the trigger ones, that people don't see the rest of it. >> paul, a pleasure. thank you for making the time today. paul donovan, and our very own steve liesman. now to shares of amex. american expression declining about 3% right now, after the company reaffirmed its full-year guidance this morning, despite posting a 36 cent earnings beat. as for its outlook, it's up nearly 60% from last year. amex is trading at its lowest level of the year and is the biggest point drag on the dow today. and speaking of which today's consumer stat is that 51%, about half of u.s. consumers, plan to spend more than $500 this holiday shopping season. that's a 15% increase from a year ago according to a new report from transunion.

coming up, energy stocks have some good-looking dividend yields. up next, we'll tell you which ones. plus, we're closing out our consumer week with a look at higher rates on main street. how are small businesses dealing with tighter lending standards? we'll ask joe biden's former nec deputy director. dow's down 102. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about.

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welcome back to "the exchange." oil back above $90 a barrel today for the first time in 2 1/2 weeks. and the bond yields are looking more attractive to investors. some energy stocks could be even more appealing, as well. pippa stevens has a look. >> well, the competition for yields is getting tougher following the ten year's ride. but energy has been a place that income seeking investors have looked. starting here with the two largest companies, exxon and chevron, both have raised their dividends for each of the last 25 years. that includes during the pandemic, despite the historic drop in oil prices. both have a roughly 3% dividend yield, with chevron's a bit higher than exxon's. but for which company has had

the highest payout, these companies have averaged the highest yields over the last three years at more than 6%. williams and devon are big payers. energy stocks are still underperforming the broader market this year. and the xle is up about 9% in the last three months, while the spy is down just shy of 6%. >> pippa, thanks. will rising dgeopolitical risks push oil prices higher or is it priced in now? andy, what does your gut say? >> well, i think a lot of it has been priced in. we always see the oil market with knee jerk reactions to events in the middle east, but as of now, there's been no supply interruption. the biggest fear is that iran gets dragged into the conflict and results in their oil being

taken off the market or the strait of hormuz being closed. >> it's interesting when i talk to specialists in their sectors, they all say these moves are overdone. yet sometimes they keep on going. >> well, we have seen other things happening in the oil market. the u.s. has sanctioned a number of vessels that were carrying russian oil, leading the oil market to think that perhaps we'll take a stricter line toward those tankers. in addition, the market thinks that perhaps we will take a stricter view of the sanctions on iran because iran has increased their exports to over 2 million barrels a day. the administration is really looking the other way because they're so focused on gasoline prices. and this is also happening at the same time that this energy is now issuing solicitations to purchase oil, to refill the strategic petroleum reserve.

>> you say the loss of 2 million barrels a day from iran would increase prices $10 to $14 per barrel or up to 35 cents at the gas pump. a hit, but you wonder if it's worth taking given everything that's happened. >> we have to look at it in a bigger context. if iranian oil was taken off the market, what kind of retaliation steps would they take? would they seize vessels in the strait or try to actually shut down all of the oil transitting and much of the exports from saudi arabia, kuwait, and iraq are transitting through that strait, as well. so you could see a much wider conflict developing if iran lost access to the oil market. so that's why the probability is quite low that the strait would be shut down. >> right. so that leaves us back with possibly range bound oil. and what would you say is the dollar amount of geopolitical

premium that is priced in per barrel right now if >> right now i think it's about $5 is the premium in there. i think when we look around the world, oil demand continues to increase. we have seen the forecast there t that, with opec suggesting higher demand is ahead. this is happening at the same time that opec continues with production cuts, most note my t -- notably the cuts from saudi arabia and russia which i believe will continue into 2024. >> andy, we really appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you. still to come, we'll tell you what movers we're seeing in the market and we are about to enter the busiest season of earnings. what the options market yssa about their results, coming up in tech check.

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miss. and discover down to its lowest level in 2 1/2 years. consumer discretionary among the worst sectors. the etf is on pace for its third straight week and month of losses. the relative strength is 32 right now. below 30 is oversold. it is well below its 200 day average in orange. and the triple qj hitting its lowest level since september. apple is the largest holding, and that stock is on track for its sixth straight day of losses. the biggest losing streak in nearly two years. now over to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. >> kelly, thank you very much. trump campaign legal adviser kennethchesbro has pleaded guilty to a felony conspiracy charge earlier this afternoon. he struck a deal with prosecutors. he now faces five years probation, a $5,000 fine,

community service, and he must cooperate with the state in the case going forward. he was one of the 19 people charged in the case, including former president donald trump. the white house requested more than $105 billion in aid from congress to support security needs in ukraine, israel, taiwan, and notably, along the u.s. southern border. $61 billion of that request is slated for ukraine. joe biden made the case for aid in his thursday night address to the nation, saying the money will help keep american troops out of harm's way, and build a safer world. the house won't be able to take up this aid request unless it elects a speaker. didn't do that. the house's third vote today, congressman jim jordan up able to secure the 217 votes needed to win the speakership. he learned just 194, down from prior tallies. the gop now voting on secret ballot on whether jordan should remain the nominee.

kelly, back to you. >> let's get more on that. a quick update on the search for a house speaker. the gop right now is voting on secret ballot on whether jordan should remain the nominee. of course, we have heard some concerns from mchenry about being empowered versus maybe voted more formally into the role. we'll bring you further updates. coming up, a look at how higher rates are hurting businesses. twhe layoffs could tick up? we'll explore after the break. ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo.

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welcome back. fed chair powell said yesterday that monetary policy may still not be tight enough, and various fed presidents reveal a different opinion over what to do next. atlanta's raphael bostic says the fed needs to be patient. loretta master concluded there is still a chance of a hike in november. and others are saying bankers are saying small businesses won't be viable if the fed hikes further. 70% of small businesses say rising rates are limiting their ability to raise capital.

we're joined by seth harris from the northeastern university, and former deputy director of the white house economic council. what insight can you shed on this situation for us? >> well, i'm in the cautious and patient camp here. i am worried about small businesses, and i'm worried about workers who could be laid off by small businesses. you know, small businesses, kelly, are very thinly capitalized. they have to rely heavily on their credit lines in order to do business. as the cost of credit has gone up, that has caused a lot of them to retrench. it may be that some are spending out of savings, and that's a concern because that can't go on forever. right now, they seem to have found an equalibrium. we're not seeing widespread layoffs frombusinesses,

but i want to see the fed wait, slow down, give things a chance to develop. monetary policy tends to develop slowly. let's see how it develops. >> a lot of people don't realize what a big impact on the labor market small businesses have. there was some great work done that indicated all of the excess hiring and excess job openings from the pandemic the last couple of years came from small businesses. so my concern is, if that is now reversing, and if that's receding, we could start to see layoff there is first, and then eventually undermining the strength of the economy. >> i share that concern. i don't think we have yet seen a turn in the opposite direction. we're still seeing good, solid moderate job growth. we got a big, surprising bump last month. but i am concerned that we are going to begin to see small businesses really retrenching, simply because they don't have the resources to go forward.

they have done fairly well. they have hung on. the labor market has hung on because of that. but if we see a turn in the opposite direction, i think it's going to hurt workers and small businesses. >> do you think it's unusual that it's taken this long or do you have any theorys as to why it has? >> you know, my theory about the labor market is that employers are hugging their workers as close as they can, because they remember a time, and it may be this time, where they have a lot of trouble finding workers. workers with the skills to do the jobs that they needed. i think a's true both of large and small businesses. so in other times, they might well have laid their workers off, confident they would be able to find replacements. but we have this weird situation where growth is slowing, inflation is coming down, but we're not seeing a loosening of the labor market. a little bit, you know, we're seeing worker power decline a little bit. but so far, there's still a very tight labor market, and it's

hard to find workers. i don't think employers want to gamble on that. >> they're hugging their employees. seth, thanks so much. appreciate you joining us today. seth harris. still to come, tech. we'll go from small to big. big tech is getting hit again today. the big names reporting next week include these, among the ten having the biggest drag on the nasdaq 100 today. we'll see what the options market is expecting from these results, next. and tech is underperforming today, but consumer discretionary is having the worst week. rounding out the bottom five, real es state, industrials, and materials. we'll be right back.

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i have a job for you. for the 336 million it's a security gig. it's a piece of cake. [ screaming ] welcome back to "the exchange." several big tech names report earnings next week, including alphabet, microsoft, meta and amazon. with the magnificent seven under pressure as rates continue their

climb, let's check in with what the options market is signaling. chris murphy is here with our own diedra bosa. diedra, give us a sense of where you think investors or silicone valley are most focused. >> so for each company it's going to be different. as a whole, earnings season comes up, these are such big parts of the broader market that a miss from any one of these four names next week could take markets down with it. so it's really critical. expectations are pretty good. these companies are more like fly wheels or platforms with many different businesses and almost seen as defensive stocks in this kind of environment. they have had a tougher second half of the year, but year-to-date, they're still holding up and still led the markets higher this year. so different things for different companies. maybe one thread that will be the same for all four of them is their ai promise versus the economics of artificial intelligence. two very different things. the first half of the year characterized by the hype and

promise, now it's the economic investors are going to look for more signs of montization, spending. ai is very expensive in terms of compute cost. and for the cloud, microsoft and amazon, investors want to know that that growth has bottomed out, especially for amazon and it's picking back up, and that's related to that are ai propositions. >> so chris, what do you see in the options markets? which are going to have the biggest moves? >> you kind of nalted wit the whole defensive argument. so you're seeing a flight to quote unquote safety in these names. so the implied moves are on the lower end compared to what we usually expect because of that flight to safety kind of nature. if one looks a little cheap, i would look towards meta. it's applying about a 10% move, which might seem relatively high. but if you compare how it's moved in the last couple, that's on the lower end. so the main takeaway is

overwriting strategy in those names, selling the upside, saying even if we do come in stronger on earnings, we're not expecting much of an explosive move while there's so many other overhangs going on in the broader market right now. so that's been the general strategy that we have been seeing into these earnings events. >> anything you would add that investors want to think about, outside risks or just maybe broad market risks? >> well, you know, the treasury yield and the situation in the middle east, that's definitely overshadowing these earnings. we're seeing correlations in general move higher. so all these stocks are starting to move together at a time when they should be moving on their own individual earnings and merits. so certainly the worst fear from one of these names is to have a pretty decent earnings, but to have the whole entire rest of the market selling off for something that's out of their control. >> diedra, quick last word. >> i like what burnstein said

this morning, that alphabet is the warm hug of big-tech earnings. while it is subject to ai hype and economics, really that add verytizing model that makes up so much of its revenue remain what they look to, and it's been more resilient than some of the other players. so i'll leave you with that, kelly, a warm hug. >> we went from hugging our employees to now a warm hug. thank you both. chris murphy and diedra bosa. still ahead, newly public companies aren't often mentioned as defensive plays, but one player has three she's buying in anticipation of a slowdown, including this one. what is our mystery chart? tweet me. that's next. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is.

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it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back. investors are buzzing about the reopening of the ipo pipeline, but is it the right kind of buzz? a lot of the recent reviews have fallen flat. all below their debut prices.

my next guest there's a few names she's buying for defense here. three ipos to buy and one to bail on. if i knew how to sell hello in japanese i would, but welcome. it went public in may after its spin-off from johnson & johnson of course. those shares have been widely under pressure since the debut. what would you do with the stock here? >> this stock is a stock one of the few ipos and actually trading cheap along with the long-term value. but if you look at the price drop, it's just too big relative to the liability they could be taking on. so we just see this as a buy right now. you're being rewarded for that risk. >> all right, well, that's pretty straightforward even though it might give people a nervous tummy to think about.

that just went, shares down 36 ers from that opening trade but only a couple dollars below the $18 ipo price. piper sandler says gen-z and millennials are keeping with thrift talk. >> i completely agree on that, and actually this is a drift that's playing into a trend, but it is also kind of one of those areas where, you know, in a defensive moment when you're tying to think about what you want to spend on, if you want to save money, this is a place people go. and so, you know, it's not only a place people go, it's cheap and it's trendy. how often do you get that? >> all right, so savers value village as well. the next one, it's a little older than some of the other ones, but it's krispe creme which went public in july 20

years ago. jp morgan is still overweight on the stock. they say they're honing in with their strategy to buy sales, but i look at it and i don't know in the era of glps and everything. what would you do here? >> you know, look, this is not the healthiest play, but it is a high margin play. and one of the reasons they're down is they've been spending quite a bit of money expanding the franchise. there's a lot of investment money going into krispe creme. ultimately this is a high margin play. you have wages still growing above inflation right now, and we don't know how long that will last, but we know when you pump dollars into the lowest socioeconomic strata, you know, they will buy items that are very, very easy and cheap, and a donut is easy and cheap. >> i thought they were spinning out impossible cookies, too, if i'm not mistaken. anyway, that's neither here nor

there. the one year bailing on is instacart, which those shares are actually higher today by about 4%. the stock went higher last month priced at 30 and opened at 42. it's down 14% since. citi gave it a buy rating this week saying online buying space is 12% e commerce. why wouldn't you stick with this one? >> so i think a lot of the -- any positive sentiment you hear is about total addressable market, how large the market is. but this is also a market very crowded. you have door dash, you have uber. the margins on this are extremely -- >> we made it that far. trying to -- go ahead, gina. final comment. >> yeah, that grocery shopping is going to be something that you just are not going to be

willing to play for in a slowing market. >> are you bulling japan after the trip? everyone else is. >> so i'm here about that so i will tell you in the week. >> very good. doing some shoe level reporting. we appreciate your reporting. that does it for us. with the dow down 129 points. next on "power lunch" it's just the ten-year crossing 5%, apple's yield is well above that level. we'll dig into corporates and where the opportunities are. tyler's getting ready, can i'll join you on the other side of this break. ther patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and markets that can provide critical insight. manage your climate risk with ice.

welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathison. the ten-year briefly hitting 5% last night. coming up we're going to look at corporate bonds. would you rather lend money to

the federal government or to apple? and speaking of apple, the company reportedly canceling john stewart's show over disagreements of potential episodes including one on china. it's the latest example of apple, and apple isn't the only one having to walk a very fine line so it can do business in china. >> and that stock in the middle of a losing streak. so is the market. dow down 110 points, a bit off session lows. s&p is down 5.5, 4253. we're exactly down from the two day moving average. that's a level people will be watching as we head into the close. and of course we're watching that ten-year yield hitting 5% briefly late yesterday. 492 this hour. and bit coin higher today. hopes for that bitcoin etf helping although it's having some trouble holding onto the 30,000 level. stil